[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (3)

[theprestige]

FFS. The sanctity of US-Soviet Astronaut Relations has been a mainstay of human hope amidst the Cold War.

[Tero]

Not the easiest thing to remover a Russian leader

Quote:

Attempted 1999 impeachment
On 15 May 1999, Yeltsin survived another attempt of impeachment, this time by the democratic and communist opposition in the State Duma. He was charged with several unconstitutional activities, including the signing of the Belovezha Accords dissolving the Soviet Union in December 1991, the coup-d'état in October 1993, and initiating the war in Chechnya in 1994. None of these charges received the two-thirds majority of the Duma required to initiate the process of impeachment of the president.

On Dec 31st he resigned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_...tex_corruption

[eerok]

Originally Posted by theprestige

FFS. The sanctity of US-Soviet Astronaut Relations has been a mainstay of human hope amidst the Cold War.

Putin has become the hopeless clown that ended all that.

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by eerok

Putin has become the hopeless clown that ended all that.

More like the clown from IT.

[shemp]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Why should they be allowed to save any 'face'?

Why should anyone negotiate with Putin or his regime?

We don't need to negotiate with him, we need to impale him atop the point on the Eiffel Tower.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

More like the clown from IT.

More like the Joker

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by shemp

We don't need to negotiate with him, we need to impale him atop the point on the Eiffel Tower.

From Vlad the Impaler to Vlad the Impaled.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by dudalb

From Vlad the Impaler to Vlad the Impaled.

Meanwhile a hundred thousand Ukrainians have been transported. What's your plan to bring them back? Promise destruction to those that have the power to do so?

[BobTheCoward]

Originally Posted by theprestige

FFS. The sanctity of US-Soviet Astronaut Relations has been a mainstay of human hope amidst the Cold War.

Yea, Putin is bad for threatening to end it.

[zorro99]

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kiev. But the war continues.

[Jimbo07]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Russia is now threatening t withdraw from the International Space Station unless sanctions are lifted.

No more than usual. Even the media treats it as just another hot-headed thing said by Rogozin.

Quote:

If they do, they are going to be shocked when they are not really missed that much.

It's going to be very inconvenient for the West. The Russian segment is propulsion and control.

That said, if they truly pull the pin, that'll be about that for for their space program. The ISS is keeping their program on life support. The West won't want them, the Chinese don't need them, and they don't have their own money...

I'm not sure how Putin can stand all this winning!

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

There have been plenty of indicators that Ukraine is open to the idea of a peace settlement. There's a lot of room between unconditional surrender and marching into Moscow.

Very much so. On the other side, of course, Russia's been very pointedly not acting in good faith, both on small things and large things. It'd be lovely if there really actually was hope for a more diplomatic solution, but it's dreadfully unsafe to trust consistently bad faith actors to act in good faith. Completely driving Russia out of Ukraine is still probably the safest bet. Possibly with raids specifically to destroy Russian military equipment near the border on the Russian side, but without actually invading. At that point, it's a much safer bet that negotiations could be made in "good" faith. Just continuing to hold out against the Russians, either way, is making Russia's continued presence increasingly awkward politically without actually declaring war.

[The Great Zaganza]

Putin had thousands of Ukrainians abducted because he wants a bargaining chip - which suggests that there are things he wants to get diplomatically rather than through force.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Putin had thousands of Ukrainians abducted because he wants a bargaining chip - which suggests that there are things he wants to get diplomatically rather than through force.

Is that actually why? Sure, Putin would love for Ukraine to, for example, just give up, but that's not the only effect of forcibly carting off... over 400K as of March 24 and probably a heck of a lot more since then. For example, carting off the people that you expect to oppose your preferred option in a referendum will, of course, greatly tip things in your favor, both directly and indirectly. There's also the point that pointedly using pro-genocide arguments quite suggests that they fully intend to commit genocide and they're well aware that the world does not like genocides, so if they can... hide the evidence, the consequences can be avoided to a significant extent.

[The Great Zaganza]

Taking care of hundreds of thousands, even badly, is a massive effort - it's not something Russia can really afford to do for decades to come.
Remember that Russia didn't really let the Donbass Ukrainians move to Russia for work - they got shuttled with busses there and back each day.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Taking care of hundreds of thousands, even badly, is a massive effort - it's not something Russia can really afford to do for decades to come.
Remember that Russia didn't really let the Donbass Ukrainians move to Russia for work - they got shuttled with busses there and back each day.

Given that this is Russia, I'm not all that convinced that they have any intention of actually taking care of those they take. I'd find it more believable if they were to be effectively used as slave labor, though. Still, genocide seems far more likely, especially since... Russia begins saying the quiet part loud: Ukrainian genocide. To poke at the most directly relevant part of that -

Quote:

Finally, the grand finale, civilian populations must be liquidated. The “Bandera-elites” and those who support and benefit from them must be exterminated as they cannot be re-educated and the “swamp” (wonder where they got that from) who supported the current state of Ukraine must be made to feel terror and pay for their guilt.

[erlando]

Originally Posted by Michel H

..snip thick-headed refusal to understand what "broadcasting" means in EU law..

In other news, rt dot com is still not banned.

[erlando]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Meanwhile a hundred thousand Ukrainians have been transported. What's your plan to bring them back? Promise destruction to those that have the power to do so?

Your alternative of "returning to the status quo before the invasion" is even more unpalatable.

ETA: And would not bring the deported back either.

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by Aridas

Given that this is Russia, I'm not all that convinced that they have any intention of actually taking care of those they take. I'd find it more believable if they were to be effectively used as slave labor, though. Still, genocide seems far more likely, especially since... Russia begins saying the quiet part loud: Ukrainian genocide. To poke at the most directly relevant part of that -

Holy ******* wow. How on earth can Russia think Ukrainians are all Nazis?

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Holy ******* wow. How on earth can Russia think Ukrainians are all Nazis?

When "Nazi" has apparently been effectively redefined to mean "Anti-Russian" in Russian propaganda since WW2, it becomes much, much more versatile. Even then, of course, it's pretty much the usual in totalitarian propaganda. That's also known as "Don't expect authoritarian propaganda to have any meaningful relationship with reality, regardless of whether people actually believe it or not. Power is what matters there, not truth."

As a sidenote, you can observe much the same logic and tactics at work in the US Right-Wing propaganda. There's all kinds of crazy and outright inversions of reality going on there and in many of the same ways as what's seen in Russia, just with some small switches in specifics to localize.

[jimbob]

WaPo story on torture, kidnapping, looting, arbitrary killings in a recently-liberated village...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ian-villagers/

Together with the bleakly ironic demands that the villagers tell them where the Nazis are.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by dudalb

And in Finland, some are reading recent statments by the PM as indicatint she is moving in the direction of supporting NATO membership. Stay tuned.

Probably a puff piece arising out of Jen Stoltenberg saying Sweden and Finland would be welcome.

Don't forget, Finland stated its intent to consider NATO membership a couple of months before Maria Zak[horror]ava, Russian Foreign Affairs official, threatened Finland and Sweden with consequences if they joined NATO and before the Ukraine invasion.

Both countries are already part of the North European group of the Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF), which includes the nordic countries, Netherland and the UK.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Because we want him to stop the ethnic cleansing of Ukraine, withdraw from the country, and repatriate the tens of thousands of Ukrainians he has already transported. I'm willing to promise a return to the status quo ante, in exchange for those things.

What's your proposal for getting those things?

Why do you insist in treating Putin as an equal in morality, reasonableness and rationality?

That is like suddenly expecting a mafia gangster to stop being a criminal and respect the law.

These people are twisted and churned up with hatred, envy and malevolence. Why else would they think rape, murder and torture is a perfectly acceptable means to an end? As Putin's hero Stalin famously said, 'The end justifies the means'.

No, it does not, to any decent person.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by TomB

Sure.

But, other than military casualties, under what scenario does Russia come out of this with less than it had when this started?

Suppose Ukraine manages to push Russia out or gets them to decide to withdraw. Russia is not going to give up territory nor are they going to give reparations. Those things would only happen if Russia were threatened in a defensive war.

Unless you think that Ukraine can go on the offensive? As great as their army has done, going on offense and pushing into Russia is a whole other ballgame.

Unless they had help. But that would put Russia fighting defensively in an existential war. I don't think anyone really wants that. It's the fear of those consequences that had kept the US/NATO from directly supporting Ukraine with air cover and the like.

I mean, I guess we could help Ukraine push into Russia and hope the people in control of the nukes disobey orders.

The best Ukraine can hope for, I think is a return to the status before the invasion. Maybe that will set them up to put down the separatists, but it doesn't rebuild their cities.

I don't see an outcome where Ukraine is made whole. At least not by Russia. The west may send funds to rebuild, but I don't think they have the ability to force that from Russia and those who could are held back by the nuclear issue.

I just don't see any way to make Putin pay other than the humiliation of being defeated by Ukraine. As much as I would like to.

I honestly think the allies will need to attack Russia and defeat them decisively.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Meanwhile a hundred thousand Ukrainians have been transported. What's your plan to bring them back? Promise destruction to those that have the power to do so?

Stop it. Stop equivocating.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by TomB

Sure.

But, other than military casualties, under what scenario does Russia come out of this with less than it had when this started?

Suppose Ukraine manages to push Russia out or gets them to decide to withdraw. Russia is not going to give up territory nor are they going to give reparations. Those things would only happen if Russia were threatened in a defensive war.

Unless you think that Ukraine can go on the offensive? As great as their army has done, going on offense and pushing into Russia is a whole other ballgame.

Unless they had help. But that would put Russia fighting defensively in an existential war. I don't think anyone really wants that. It's the fear of those consequences that had kept the US/NATO from directly supporting Ukraine with air cover and the like.

I mean, I guess we could help Ukraine push into Russia and hope the people in control of the nukes disobey orders.

The best Ukraine can hope for, I think is a return to the status before the invasion. Maybe that will set them up to put down the separatists, but it doesn't rebuild their cities.

I don't see an outcome where Ukraine is made whole. At least not by Russia. The west may send funds to rebuild, but I don't think they have the ability to force that from Russia and those who could are held back by the nuclear issue.

I just don't see any way to make Putin pay other than the humiliation of being defeated by Ukraine. As much as I would like to.

He will come out of it isolated from world trade and with a destroyed army.
Even if Ukraine just push back to their old border the Russian forces are going to be in a mess with no resources to rebuild. Who has suggested Ukraine invading Russia?

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Vixen

I honestly think the allies will need to attack Russia and defeat them decisively.

By 'allies' do you mean NATO?

That isn't going to happen.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

By 'allies' do you mean NATO?

That isn't going to happen.

Indeed.

I do however think that NATO should offer to Ukraine to protect the western parts for humanitarian reasons.

Putin will continue to escalate until it happens just as Milosevic did in Bosnia.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Indeed.

I do however think that NATO should offer to Ukraine to protect the western parts for humanitarian reasons.

Putin will continue to escalate until it happens just as Milosevic did in Bosnia.

Western Ukraine doesn't need NATO protection at the moment, the Russians have run away.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

By 'allies' do you mean NATO?

That isn't going to happen.

It might have to happen.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Western Ukraine doesn't need NATO protection at the moment, the Russians have run away.

The Ukrainian armed forces would be freed up ftom needing to protect there. And it would make a statement to Putin that he will not have a hope of installing a puppet

[Captain_Swoop]

Institute For The Study Of War produce a daily summery of the military situation.
It is very thorough and seems to be pretty accurate.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-april-4

Todays main points (much more detail in main piece)

Quote:

Russian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts continue to make little to no progress and face mounting casualties and declining morale. Replacements and reinforcements from northeastern Ukraine are highly unlikely to meaningfully change the balance of forces.

Efforts by Russian forces advancing from Izyum to capture Slovyansk and threaten Ukrainian forces in Donbas with encirclement will likely prove to be the next pivotal battle of the war in Ukraine. If Russian forces are unable to take Slovyansk, Russia’s campaign to capture the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts will likely fail

The defenders of Mariupol have outperformed ISW’s previous estimates, and Russian forces are likely taking heavy casualties in ongoing efforts to capture the city.

Ukrainian forces likely conducted successful counterattacks in Kherson Oblast in the last 24 hours.

Russian forces have almost completely withdrawn from Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts and will likely completely vacate these regions in the coming days.

Russian forces withdrawn from the Kyiv axis are highly unlikely to be effectively deployed elsewhere in Ukraine and are likely a spent force.

Russian forces already deployed to the Kremlin’s main effort in eastern Ukraine are highly demoralized and do not have a cohesive command structure.

Russian efforts to generate reserves and replace officer casualties continue to face serious challenges.

Als

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by jimbob

The Ukrainian armed forces would be freed up ftom needing to protect there. And it would make a statement to Putin that he will not have a hope of installing a puppet

I don't think there is any danger there at the moment.

Those forces that have retreated back in to Belarus and Russia are spent. They won't be returning to the fight for a long time. There are no other formations that could be used to attack in the west without using the forces fighting in the east. They are pretty much spent too.
Any new units sent in will be in the east.

[Vixen]

Denmark and Italy have announced the expulsion of Russian diplomats.

ETA: And Sweden, too.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

I don't think there is any danger there at the moment.

Those forces that have retreated back in to Belarus and Russia are spent. They won't be returning to the fight for a long time. There are no other formations that could be used to attack in the west without using the forces fighting in the east. They are pretty much spent too.
Any new units sent in will be in the east.

There's a difference between there being no danger and strong action that makes it clearly impossible.

Meanwhile in Why I like the Irish.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/iris...nment-26635546

smallest violin for the Russian Embassy staff

[Lennart Hyland]

Originally Posted by Vixen

Denmark and Italy have announced the expulsion of Russian diplomats.

ETA: And Sweden, too.

Swedish Security Service has labeled them as spies so good riddance.

A couple of days ago it was announced that sending package to Ukraine from Sweden is now free of charge. Me and my wife are therefor sending some toys and clothes, hopefully it can come to joy for some poor souls

[Vixen]

Bellingcat has drone footage that proves the dead cyclist, as widely depicted dead on his bike, was killed whilst the Russians were occupied there.

Quote:

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/statu...Hklq2_Sb1_3tgA

New drone imagery shows Russian forces firing on a cyclists in Bucha, on Yablunska Street at 50.54148, 30.228898, where multiple corpses have been filmed and photographed https://t.me/nexta_live/24647

So much for the lavatorial Lavrov and the pesky Peskov claiming it all happened after the Russians left.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Lennart Hyland

Swedish Security Service has labeled them as spies so good riddance.

A couple of days ago it was announced that sending package to Ukraine from Sweden is now free of charge. Me and my wife are therefor sending some toys and clothes, hopefully it can come to joy for some poor souls

Fantastic idea! I must look into this.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

He will come out of it isolated from world trade and with a destroyed army.
Even if Ukraine just push back to their old border the Russian forces are going to be in a mess with no resources to rebuild. Who has suggested Ukraine invading Russia?

This does pose the question of what would the desirable (to Ukraine) borders of Ukraine look like. If they were to regain Crimea and the so-called independent states of Donbas(s) will this leave them with a constant, Russian-enabled insurrection ?

I guess only Ukraine can answer that question. Over time they could win hearts and minds and bring those areas back under control. Then again they could have constant war on their hands.

I think one thing we can be sure of is that Russia will renege on any and all terms of any peace agreement. It'll only be a matter of time before they start meddling in Ukraine again whether it's another full-blown invasion (if they're able to rebuild their military capability), the occasional accidental-on-purpose incursion into Ukrainian airspace or simply keeping the insurrectionists in weapons.

[jimbob]

More harrowing secon hand reporting but very believable in light of what we know now.

Been sat on earlier as the tweeter thought it was too extreme to be believable

https://twitter.com/DmytroGurinMP/st...OUgdIW7zPojo3g

Long thread