[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (3)

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Yes. Direct military intervention by NATO is not the right tool to fix that problem. The UN might be. You're not the only one horrified by what the Russians are doing but don't let that blind you to how much worse things could get.


Avoidable yet not avoided. You chose an example of people making decisions which did in reality lead to the use of nuclear weapons. Shall we not do that again, please?

It wasn't me who said it should be NATO. Surely a task force of SAS/SEALS or similar can carry out a 'special military operation' to take out the Russian government.

OK so we'll just watch our neighbours being tortured, raped, starved and burnt next door but do nothing because...we don't want to enrage the rapist murderers.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Vixen

It wasn't me who said it should be NATO. Surely a task force of SAS/SEALS or similar can carry out a 'special military operation' to take out the Russian government.

This is precisely the sort of thing which could trigger nuclear war.

Seriously, if Putin and the rest of the top leadership think we are going to kill them, what exactly prevents them from pressing the button? MAD doesn't work if one side is going to destroy the other regardless.

Quote:

OK so we'll just watch our neighbours being tortured, raped, starved and burnt next door but do nothing because...we don't want to enrage the rapist murderers.

Why is killing Putin the only alternative to doing nothing? That's... strange.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Vixen

It wasn't me who said it should be NATO. Surely a task force of SAS/SEALS or similar can carry out a 'special military operation' to take out the Russian government.

OK so we'll just watch our neighbours being tortured, raped, starved and burnt next door but do nothing because...we don't want to enrage the rapist murderers.

You're not suggesting NATO should act, yet you propose special forces from NATO countries should assassinate the Russian government. Could there be a more clear-cut act of war?

"Doing nothing" is not the only alternative to triggering WWIII, and it's not what's happening now.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

You don't think we have spy satellites dedicated to keeping track of them?

Heh, guess who supplies Russia's telecommunications...? Or so I've been told but I don't know. Nokia. Yes. It means Finland gets to listen to them and track everything about them. Just sayin'.

I don't know but I've been told.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

You don't think we have spy satellites dedicated to keeping track of them?

Knowing where they are isn't enough. If they are mobile, then your options for actually hitting them are quite limited, and VERY far from guaranteed, especially if you need to do it before they can launch.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

You don't think we have spy satellites dedicated to keeping track of them?

Do you mean just the real ones or all the dummies too?

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

This is precisely the sort of thing which could trigger nuclear war.

Seriously, if Putin and the rest of the top leadership think we are going to kill them, what exactly prevents them from pressing the button? MAD doesn't work if one side is going to destroy the other regardless.



Why is killing Putin the only alternative to doing nothing? That's... strange.

Not even assassinate them but perhaps arrest the buggers.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

Knowing where they are isn't enough. If they are mobile, then your options for actually hitting them are quite limited, and VERY far from guaranteed, especially if you need to do it before they can launch.

How mobile are they exactly? If we know where they are and strike first we could position stealth bombers over them.

I am NOT saying we should carry out a first strike, but if we did, we very probably could destroy the vast majority of their nuclear capability. And more importantly, Russia's high level general officers know it.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Vixen

Not even assassinate them but perhaps arrest the buggers.

Shall we try to remain in touch with reality and maybe the action fantasy movie version of this war could have its own thread.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Vixen

Not even assassinate them but perhaps arrest the buggers.

You really think a SEAL/SAS team could get to Putin in his secret bunker and arrest him? Supposedly he has a division strength security detail of very loyal troops as his body guard.

[Jack by the hedge]

Quite. Putin needs to protect himself from his friends let alone his enemies. Any sneak attack you can think of has already been thought of by others. Putin is not like OBL hiding away in quiet concealment with just a few guns around his house.

[Vixen]

We have a rogue state in Russia, people. When will it sink in that 'do nothing' is not an option should Russia succeed in its illegal occupation of Ukraine and the crimes against humanity (and animals) it is openly and lawlessly perpetrating there. To rub it in, Lavrov and his cohorts fake indignation at Russia being accused of wrongdoing when all the while Russia is absolutely revelling in its criminality and enjoying every moment.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Man this is grim:

Quote:

Ukraine will become a “‘big Israel' with its own face,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared on Tuesday, indicating that his country intends to emulate the Israeli security state in the wake of Russia’s invasion.

“Ukraine will definitely not be what we wanted it to be from the beginning. It is impossible. Absolutely liberal, European – it will not be like that. It [Ukraine] will definitely come from the strength of every house, every building, every person,” Zelenskyy told members of the Ukrainian media during a briefing.

"We will become a ‘big Israel’ with its own face. We will not be surprised if we have representatives of the Armed Forces or the National Guard in cinemas, supermarkets, and people with weapons. I am confident that the question of security will be the issue number one for the next 10 years. I am sure of it.”

https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/e...ean-1.10721395

Ethnic Russians living in Ukraine should probably start looking for the escape hatch, regardless if they are Ukrainian citizens or not.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by erlando

Your alternative of "returning to the status quo before the invasion" is even more unpalatable.

Even more unpalatable than what?

Early February had a lot less killing, and a lot fewer Russian troops in Ukraine, and a lot fewer deportations, than what is going on right now. That seems more palatable to me than what we have today.

Quote:

ETA: And would not bring the deported back either.

Speak plainly, then. You've already written them off, and are not interested in even trying to negotiate for their return. Whatever happens to them, they are in your view a worthy sacrifice to the cause of justice for Russia.

Justice that will never actually come, since the supposed agents of such justice lack the power to enforce it on a nuclear state.

I doubt very much that Putin will make any credible offer for return of the deported. But if he were to offer that, in exchange for ratification of Crimea and Donbas as no longer part of Ukraine, I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.

If the Ukrainian army were able to threaten Crimea and Donbas, I'd offer that deal to Putin.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

Man this is grim:



https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/e...ean-1.10721395

Ethnic Russians living in Ukraine should probably start looking for the escape hatch, regardless if they are Ukrainian citizens or not.

Can't see how Ukraine can be like Israel.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

Man this is grim:



https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/e...ean-1.10721395

Ethnic Russians living in Ukraine should probably start looking for the escape hatch, regardless if they are Ukrainian citizens or not.

Worth reading the whole thing, but heres some more highlights:

However, such measures would not serve to undercut Ukrainian democracy, he added, declaring that “an authoritarian state is impossible in Ukraine.”

“An authoritarian state would lose to Russia. People know what they are fighting for,” he said.

Zelenskyy has been highly critical of Israel’s approach to the war, his ambassador to Israel telling reporters several days into the invasion that the president, as a Jew, “has much higher expectations of Israel than Israel can deliver.”

Zelenskyy’s speech drew a harsh condemnation from Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who objected to his Ukrainian counterpart’s use of rhetoric comparing Russian actions to those of the Nazis, stating that “it is forbidden to compare anything to the Holocaust.”

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Holy ******* wow. How on earth can Russia think Ukrainians are all Nazis?

They don't.

It's a lie. We know it's a lie. They know it's a lie. They know we know it's a lie. They know we know they know it's a lie.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by theprestige

They don't.

It's a lie. We know it's a lie. They know it's a lie. They know we know it's a lie. They know we know they know it's a lie.

Uh, I don't know. Plenty of people in my neighborhood think that roundabouts are communist.

Here in America, a big segment of society describes anything it does not like as "communist". Russia has been doing a similar thing, anything that opposes the Russian/USSR state narrative is Nazi.

They just use a different definition of Nazi than we do, such that a Jewish man descended from a holocaust survivor can easily be a Nazi, but a man with an SS uniform tattooed on his body is not.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

How mobile are they exactly? If we know where they are and strike first we could position stealth bombers over them.

We have 21 B-2 stealth bombers. Russia has probably over 100 road-mobile nuclear ICBM's. We don't have nearly enough stealth bomber capacity to take them all out, even if our intelligence was perfect. And it probably isn't.

And that's not counting their silos, which, while we know where they are, are not soft targets. How exactly do you take them out by surprise? With those 21 stealth bombers? Again, not nearly enough of them. By ballistic missiles of our own? Can't do that by surprise, they'll see them coming and can launch before they hit. Maybe you think we can do it with stealth jets. After all, we've got a lot more F-35's and F-22's. But they don't have the range to strike deep into Russian territory, and they can't carry the sort of deep penetrators that would be required to breach a silo.

Quote:

I am NOT saying we should carry out a first strike, but if we did, we very probably could destroy the vast majority of their nuclear capability. And more importantly, Russia's high level general officers know it.

No, we could not. I don't think you've actually thought through the required capacities involved.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Vixen

It wasn't me who said it should be NATO. Surely a task force of SAS/SEALS or similar can carry out a 'special military operation' to take out the Russian government.

OK so we'll just watch our neighbours being tortured, raped, starved and burnt next door but do nothing because...we don't want to enrage the rapist murderers.

Would set a very dangerous precedent and what replaces them could be even worse.

[trustbutverify]

Originally Posted by Vixen

We have a rogue state in Russia, people. When will it sink in that 'do nothing' is not an option should Russia succeed in its illegal occupation of Ukraine and the crimes against humanity (and animals) it is openly and lawlessly perpetrating there. To rub it in, Lavrov and his cohorts fake indignation at Russia being accused of wrongdoing when all the while Russia is absolutely revelling in its criminality and enjoying every moment.

They're garbage. Their Western apologists (both paid and unpaid) are garbage. I'm with you 100%; however, Putin's Nuclear array, his utter contempt for ethical considerations, and his partnership with the second most powerful nation on Earth means he and Lavrov can get away with just about anything. The free world can make them pay a steep price, but can't stop them. I don't enjoy saying that.

[theprestige]

Russia is literally the one other nation on Earth that can absolutely guarantee a devastating nuclear retaliation, in response to pretty much every conceivable first-strike scenario. China comes close, but up until recently their economy wasn't big enough to pay for the full monty.

[Delphic Oracle]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

How mobile are they exactly? If we know where they are and strike first we could position stealth bombers over them.



I am NOT saying we should carry out a first strike, but if we did, we very probably could destroy the vast majority of their nuclear capability. And more importantly, Russia's high level general officers know it.

"You're pretty smart, they should have asked you first." -Kriechbaum, Das Boot

Sent from my SM-N970U1 using Tapatalk

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Vixen

When will it sink in that 'do nothing' is not an option

That is not what is happening. Move on.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Russia is literally the one other nation on Earth that can absolutely guarantee a devastating nuclear retaliation, in response to pretty much every conceivable first-strike scenario.

This. It seems to have slipped a few people's minds that the entire basis of cold war nuclear stalemate was mutually assured destruction. There was no way to win, except, as Wargames put it, not to play. That has not changed, not even if most of Russia's hydrogen bombs turned out to be duds.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Vixen

Not even assassinate them but perhaps arrest the buggers.

How would that work?

What size of team and support would be needed to put them in to the Kremlin and get them back out again?

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Vixen

We have a rogue state in Russia, people. When will it sink in that 'do nothing' is not an option should Russia succeed in its illegal occupation of Ukraine and the crimes against humanity (and animals) it is openly and lawlessly perpetrating there. To rub it in, Lavrov and his cohorts fake indignation at Russia being accused of wrongdoing when all the while Russia is absolutely revelling in its criminality and enjoying every moment.

Who is 'doing nothing'?

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Even more unpalatable than what?

Early February had a lot less killing, and a lot fewer Russian troops in Ukraine, and a lot fewer deportations, than what is going on right now. That seems more palatable to me than what we have today.


Speak plainly, then. You've already written them off, and are not interested in even trying to negotiate for their return. Whatever happens to them, they are in your view a worthy sacrifice to the cause of justice for Russia.

Justice that will never actually come, since the supposed agents of such justice lack the power to enforce it on a nuclear state.

I doubt very much that Putin will make any credible offer for return of the deported. But if he were to offer that, in exchange for ratification of Crimea and Donbas as no longer part of Ukraine, I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.

If the Ukrainian army were able to threaten Crimea and Donbas, I'd offer that deal to Putin.

Nice of you to give parts of Ukraine to Russia.
Reward Putin by giving him exactly what he wants knowing he would have no intention of sticking by any deal that was agreed to.

Ukrainian army are on the way to being able to threaten retaking Crimea and Donbas.

[Warp12]

I wonder how much intelligence support the US is supplying? I assume that a number of countries might be giving support via providing satellite imagery, updates on troop movements, and such.

[Arcade22]

One of the many, many cruel ironies is how cynical the Russian propaganda narrative of how they are "saving Russian speaking people from Ukrainian Nazis" is in that they really don't care at all about ethnic Russians or Russian speakers.

Russian shells don't discriminate and the areas most heavily subject to wanton destruction and other war crimes are those near the border, which tend to be inhabited by ethnic Russians.

Take the stories from this small town near the Russian border:

Quote:

Thirty days after they arrived, amid a fierce Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russians left Trostianets in a convoy of tanks, other armour, trucks full of loot and numerous stolen vehicles they had daubed with Z signs, the symbol of their invading force.

The carnage they left behind will be remembered by the residents of this quaint, historical spa town of 20,000 residents for the rest of their lives, and is yet another indictment of the results of Russia’s unwanted “liberation” mission in Ukraine.

...

This is a place where a decade ago, people had mostly good things to say about Russia, which is just a short drive away and where many people have friends and family. Now they competed to heap insults on the neighbours that had brought misery upon them. “Barbarians!” “Pigs!” “Bastards!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...of-trostianets

[Arcade22]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

Man this is grim:



https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/e...ean-1.10721395

Ethnic Russians living in Ukraine should probably start looking for the escape hatch, regardless if they are Ukrainian citizens or not.

Ethnic Russians hate Russia too. It's not like the Russians are making a good faith effort to make them like Russia nor are ethnic Russians being persecuted outside of Russian propaganda.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Warp12

I wonder how much intelligence support the US is supplying? I assume that a number of countries might be giving support via providing satellite imagery, updates on troop movements, and such.

We're probably giving them tons of intel.

They might repay us with that nice Krasukha-4 they found lying around.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

You really think a SEAL/SAS team could get to Putin in his secret bunker and arrest him? Supposedly he has a division strength security detail of very loyal troops as his body guard.

Hide behind some boxes, when one of the Russkies walks past to do his security rounds, tap him on the shoulder, when he turns around punch him in the face to make him unconscious, then drag him behind the boxes to swap clothes. Then use some Russian phrases like “Я тебя люблю!” until you find Putin. Inform him he is under arrest. He’ll say “It’s a fair cop, guv, you’ve got me bang to rights.” Then scarper to Estonia in a stolen Concordski prototype which the Russians had hidden away since the 1970s with champagne and caviar to celebrate.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Nice of you to give parts of Ukraine to Russia.

All the options seem to be worse.

Quote:

Reward Putin by giving him exactly what he wants

War is hell. Sometimes the aggressor wins. That's why it's called "war" and not "optional stuff we're free to turn down if we don't like it".

But this isn't exactly what Putin wants. It's pretty clear he wants all of Ukraine. This is actually only a small part of what he wants. It's also stuff he pretty much had already. All this effort, all this loss of prestige and profit and military strength, just to get a de jure followup to his de facto annexation of Crimea and Donbas? That's a pyrrhic victory for Putin, and one I'd be happy to hand him on a silver platter.

Quote:

knowing he would have no intention of sticking by any deal that was agreed to.

Already addressed, repeatedly. It will take years, if not decades, for Russia to rebuild the army they've lost in Ukraine. Years in which Ukraine can also rebuild, faster and better. Years in which Ukraine can join NATO - easy enough once the territorial disputes are resolved. And once Ukraine joins NATO, it doesn't matter what Putin's intentions are, he'll stick to the deal simply because he can't afford to invade a NATO member.

Setting things back to the status quo ante has three major benefits:

1. Stops the killing.

2. Removes Russian troops from (the rest of) Ukraine.

3. Buys time for Ukraine to prepare for the next attempt. Either deterring it completely, or defeating it faster and more decisively.

What's your priority? Stopping the killing and making space and time for Ukraine to join NATO and rearm? Or punishing Putin at any cost to Ukraine?

[Metullus]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Hide behind some boxes, when one of the Russkies walks past to do his security rounds, tap him on the shoulder, when he turns around punch him in the face to make him unconscious, then drag him behind the boxes to swap clothes. Then use some Russian phrases like “Я тебя люблю!” until you find Putin. Inform him he is under arrest. He’ll say “It’s a fair cop, guv, you’ve got me bang to rights.” Then scarper to Estonia in a stolen Concordski prototype which the Russians had hidden away since the 1970s with champagne and caviar to celebrate.

That's almost exactly the plan I was going to propose to Biden!

[gnome]

Originally Posted by theprestige

What's your priority? Stopping the killing and making space and time for Ukraine to join NATO and rearm? Or punishing Putin at any cost to Ukraine?

Geting the Russians all the way out of Ukraine. Then they are negotiating for their own future, not their neighbor. There's plenty to talk about, plenty for them to benefit by playing ball afterwards.

[GlennB]

Originally Posted by Vixen

It wasn't me who said it should be NATO. Surely a task force of SAS/SEALS or similar can carry out a 'special military operation' to take out the Russian government.

What a ludicrous concept.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Suppose Russia only has 500 *working* thermonuclear warheads. How many would get through a missile defense if aimed at cities?

The answer is, too many

Side note: US doctrine is apparently to make a determination early on, of whether the enemy missiles are aimed at US cities, or aimed at US missile launch sites. Whichever it is, the US will respond in kind. Even at the MAD level, there are nuances, and degrees of horror.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Side note: US doctrine is apparently to make a determination early on, of whether the enemy missiles are aimed at US cities, or aimed at US missile launch sites. Whichever it is, the US will respond in kind. Even at the MAD level, there are nuances, and degrees of horror.

From my memory of reading Command and Control (excellent and horrifying book) any response likely means an all but certain extinction of the human race.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Already addressed, repeatedly. It will take years, if not decades, for Russia to rebuild the army they've lost in Ukraine. Years in which Ukraine can also rebuild, faster and better. Years in which Ukraine can join NATO - easy enough once the territorial disputes are resolved. And once Ukraine joins NATO, it doesn't matter what Putin's intentions are, he'll stick to the deal simply because he can't afford to invade a NATO member.

Setting things back to the status quo ante has three major benefits:

1. Stops the killing.

2. Removes Russian troops from (the rest of) Ukraine.

3. Buys time for Ukraine to prepare for the next attempt. Either deterring it completely, or defeating it faster and more decisively.

What's your priority? Stopping the killing and making space and time for Ukraine to join NATO and rearm? Or punishing Putin at any cost to Ukraine?

If Zelensky agrees to give up the territory Russia has taken, and this is what the Ukrainian people want, then fine that's what should happen. I can all but guarantee that one thing Putin will demand is Ukraine never joins NATO. If we promise them that and 5 minutes after the last Russian troop leaves, Ukraine joins NATO anyways, then fine that's great. I'm against negotiating with Russia in good faith... negotiating in bad faith however is fine by me. As far as sanctions go, well the USA can only decide what types of trade we carry out with Russia, not the rest of the world, but I'd hope severe restrictions remain in place.