[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (3)

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by Drewbot

It may also have to do with the demographics of Crimea.



* It is the most Russian speaking province.

*It was only part of the Ukraine since the 1950's, (at that time Ukraine was part of the USSR)

* Ukraine military in the province had been undermined by Russian propaganda and money.

Maybe they will change their mind now.

[jimbob]

Meanwhile I thought I'd look at the maps from the Institute for the study of war for March 16th, April 16th, and May 16th

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sment-march-16

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sment-april-16

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-may-16

quite a progression - especially in the first two

[crescent]

Russia will compensate people in Mariupol for the destruction of their houses or the deaths of their loved ones - but only if they publicly blame it on Ukraine.

Russia Offers Ukrainians Cash to Blame Zelensky Troops for Destroyed Homes

Quote:

Mariupol residents seeking the compensation must submit written statements saying Ukraine is responsible for the property destruction or the deaths of their family members. Residents of the city who leave out or refuse to include these statements will not receive any compensation, he said.

"When submitting a written statement, Mariupol residents must state that the property was 'destroyed by the Ukrainian military' and that relatives were 'killed by the Ukrainian army,'" Andryushchenko added.

Quote:

Russia is offering the equivalent of about $6,000 to residents with destroyed housing and about $33,000 in compensation for a deceased family member,

....but only if they blame on the Ukrainian forces.

[Stellafane]

Originally Posted by crescent

Russia will compensate people in Mariupol for the destruction of their houses or the deaths of their loved ones - but only if they publicly blame it on Ukraine...

No doubt there will be some who will point to any feedback obtained through this "deal" as proof that Ukrainians hate their government and want to join Russia, and thus the invasion/annexation is justified. After all, it's the "will of the people," right?

[The Don]

Not good news for the "Brave defenders of Mariupol"

Quote:

Russia has asked its Supreme Court to designate Ukraine's Azov Regiment as a terrorist organisation.

According to Russia's Interfax news agency, the Justice Ministry in Moscow has said a court case "on recognising the Ukrainian paramilitary nationalist association 'Azov' (other names used: the 'Azov' battalion, 'Azov' regiment) as a terrorist organisation and the ban on its activities on the territory of the Russian Federation is scheduled for trial on 26 May".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

I fear that any Ukrainians who end up in Russia will be tried, convicted and executed as terrorists.

[The Don]

Another excellent Youtube video from Perun addressing the question of whether NATO is running out of weapons:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

yt;dw version: Nope

[dasmiller]

Originally Posted by crescent

Russia will compensate people in Mariupol for the destruction of their houses or the deaths of their loved ones - but only if they publicly blame it on Ukraine.

Russia Offers Ukrainians Cash to Blame Zelensky Troops for Destroyed Homes

....but only if they blame on the Ukrainian forces.

Ah, but if their houses or loved ones were destroyed by Ukrainians, then Russia isn't responsible for compensation, so . . .

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by dasmiller

Ah, but if their houses or loved ones were destroyed by Ukrainians, then Russia isn't responsible for compensation, so . . .

"Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn't, but if he were sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn't have to, but if he didn't want to he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle."

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by The Don

Not good news for the "Brave defenders of Mariupol"



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

I fear that any Ukrainians who end up in Russia will be tried, convicted and executed as terrorists. : mad :

The biggest news here is that Russia hadn't already done this some time ago. I find it hilarious that up until a couple months ago, the west was probably closer to declaring Azov terrorists than Russia was.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by theprestige

The biggest news here is that Russia hadn't already done this some time ago. I find it hilarious that up until a couple months ago, the west was probably closer to declaring Azov terrorists than Russia was.

And now, if someone refers to the Azov as Nazis, they are more likely to be fascist than most in the Azov group.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by The Don

I fear that any Ukrainians who end up in Russia will be tried, convicted and executed as terrorists.

I wouldn't worry. Not about the first two.

[Reformed Offlian]

Originally Posted by The Don

Now that the assault has completed with a glorious victory for the forces of de-Nazification, no-one in Russia cares. It was yet another cunning ruse from the master of gajillion dimension chess - Vladimir Putin and will go alongside the feints towards Kyiv and Kharkiv as the masterstrokes of the war which led to the unprecedented* victory.

* - for very specific definitions of unprecedented

Especially those definitions where "unprecedented" means "uninstantiated".

[crescent]

You know, on social media, the pro-Russian people have been really really focused on Mariupol from the beginning. Some have compared it to Stalingrad (well, both sides did that in their own way).

I am guessing that few of the lower-information tankies will see the surrender of the Azovstal garrison as such a big thing that it will end the war, or means that the war is over because (to them) this means that Russia has won.

I'm predicting a bit of consternation in a week or two when it becomes apparent that Ukraine is nowhere near the point of giving up.

[arthwollipot]

I really appreciate this visual presentation of the first phase of the Ukraine war. It's long, but in my opinion worth it. I find the style of presentation makes it very easy for me to understand what went on.

How Ukraine Won the First Phase of the War (Kings and Generals, 33:52)

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

I really appreciate this visual presentation of the first phase of the Ukraine war. It's long, but in my opinion worth it. I find the style of presentation makes it very easy for me to understand what went on.

How Ukraine Won the First Phase of the War (Kings and Generals, 33:52)

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

Ukraine couldn't have been far from total collapse. What saved them was Russian leadership incompetence and lack of will. The lack of will in the sense that a lot of the troops wouldn't have wanted to be fighting that war.

[Lennart Hyland]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

On Russian TV:



Quite an eye-opener. Khodaryonok argues that Ukrainian morale is high and their desire to fight to the last in defence of their country will increase their professionalism. The host, Skabeyeva, tries to contradict him and put words in his mouth, but he points out that the material Ukraine is receiving and Russia's isolation from the rest of the world is something they need to get out of.

Link

She did try hard. I guess that Khodaryonok wont be on that show anymore..

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Lennart Hyland

She did try hard. I guess that Khodaryonok wont be on that show anymore..

Probably accidentally fall out of a window.

[dudalb]

Putin is now micromanaging the war:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...48ee9776f166c3

That worked so great for LBJ and McNamara in the Vietnam War....

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Putin is now micromanaging the war:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...48ee9776f166c3

That worked so great for LBJ and McNamara in the Vietnam War....

It wasn't LBJ and McNamara that I was thinking of in the exchanges below.

Originally Posted by jimbob

The BBC reported (radio so don't have a link) that it's claimed that Putin is now taking personal military decisions in Ukraine... "Ones that would normally be taken by far more junior officers".


There might be an historical precedent for this.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

Those who fail to learn from history...

Originally Posted by jimbob

Yes, but I bet you'd have considered it a bad idea to start an armoured offensive in the mud season.

Originally Posted by jimbob

Arrgh, I somehow put a silly icon on my previous post.



Link to story

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e_iOSApp_Other


I do hope it's not just propaganda, because a former spy taking strategic decisions at a tactical level is not going to help the Russians

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

It wasn't LBJ and McNamara that I was thinking of in the exchanges below.

I was not responding to your commenst, I just though it an interesting story that PUtin is apparetnly making tatical decisions..much like LBJ and McNamara did in Vietnam, and I think it turn out about as well for Putin as it did for them.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by crescent

Russia will compensate people in Mariupol for the destruction of their houses or the deaths of their loved ones - but only if they publicly blame it on Ukraine.

Russia Offers Ukrainians Cash to Blame Zelensky Troops for Destroyed Homes

....but only if they blame on the Ukrainian forces.

And you have to trust Russia to pay up. That means considering the economic hit the Russian population is already under.

How are the Russian citizens going to take that? Will they get the same money for lost soldiers?

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Putin is now micromanaging the war:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...48ee9776f166c3

That worked so great for LBJ and McNamara in the Vietnam War....

Neither ofthem were working down to the level that is claimed for Putin.

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/statu...zJ4Ppe3DcoSaWg

It does look as though Russia is advancing in the East.

Quote:

Neil Hauer
@NeilPHauer
Heavy artillery exchanges now around outskirts of Sloviansk. Can feel the air pressure changes from incoming/outgoing rounds at the centre of town.
1:21 PM · May 18, 2022 from Ukraine

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Neither ofthem were working down to the level that is claimed for Putin.

There are reports that Putin was involved in the failed river crossing.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by jimbob

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/statu...zJ4Ppe3DcoSaWg

It does look as though Russia is advancing in the East.

Very slowly. About four day ago: https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1...283073/photo/1

[jimbob]

I think this belongs in this thread because of the implications.

S300 in Syria have reportedly been fired at Israeli F16s. These are apparently in Russian control, even when in Syrian government use.

If that is the case, I can't imagine it doing anything except predispose Israel to support Ukraine. Especially after the comments about Hitler.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-fir...ts-over-syria/

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Ukraine couldn't have been far from total collapse. What saved them was Russian leadership incompetence and lack of will. The lack of will in the sense that a lot of the troops wouldn't have wanted to be fighting that war.

I think you need to add in the corruption that has been rampant in Russia for years. Someone sifted (grifted?) a lot of profits off the military budget. Putin must have been asleep at the wheel not to notice how decrepit the military was getting.


Oh, and this realization might be why Putin stopped threatening Finland.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

I think you need to add in the corruption that has been rampant in Russia for years. Someone sifted (grifted?) a lot of profits off the military budget. Putin must have been asleep at the wheel not to notice how decrepit the military was getting.


Oh, and this realization might be why Putin stopped threatening Finland.

There is also the option that the Russian hardware was always crap.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Lennart Hyland

She did try hard. I guess that Khodaryonok wont be on that show anymore..

He's back on, but is already putting out a different message:

Quote:

Today retired colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok made another appearance on Russian state TV, just two days after he gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and its growing international isolation

It appears that someone's given him a bit of a talking to

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

I think you need to add in the corruption that has been rampant in Russia for years. Someone sifted (grifted?) a lot of profits off the military budget. Putin must have been asleep at the wheel not to notice how decrepit the military was getting.

How would he have noticed? It's not like he's out there personally inspecting all the tanks and guns and whatnot. Or that he'd necessarily notice the telltale signs of decrepitude if he did.

My guess is he knew there was some corruption going on, and had factored in a certain amount of decrepitude, but believed, on the advice of his general staff, that even in its degraded state the Russian army still retained enough capability to win in Ukraine.

I think what we're seeing here is a concatenation of all the falsified readiness reports at all levels of the Russian military apparatus, rolling up into a totally unrealistic picture that Putin was in no position to debunk.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

There is also the option that the Russian hardware was always crap.

As far as I can tell, it's always been kinda crap, but also cheap and effective enough to get the job done. That is, get the job done assuming adequate training, maintenance, morale, and logistics.

It's not like Ukrainian equipment was any better, at the start of this conflict. It was all down to a question of who could use it more effectively.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

There are reports that Putin was involved in the failed river crossing.

I repeat my comparasion to LBJ micromanging military tactics in Vietnam, This never turns out well.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by theprestige

As far as I can tell, it's always been kinda crap, but also cheap and effective enough to get the job done. That is, get the job done assuming adequate training, maintenance, morale, and logistics.

It's not like Ukrainian equipment was any better, at the start of this conflict. It was all down to a question of who could use it more effectively.

It depends. Russian small arms...until recently.. were good because they were simple , rugged and soldier proof as the saying goes.
But with anything complex and high tech., Russia does not do a good job.
Which makes their constant bragging about having developed various super weapons amusing.

[Doubt]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I repeat my comparasion to LBJ micromanging military tactics in Vietnam, This never turns out well.

A little off topic here. But LBJ micromanaging the military was not the cause of failure in Vietnam. The army leadership failing to deal with the nature of the war was. They kept trying to turn it into a conventional conflict while ignoring the local political issues driving it. And they used a corrupt metric to measure progress in the form of body counts.

If LBJ had stayed out of it the results would have been the same.

End derail.

[Captain_Swoop]

Ukraine is completely different to Vietnam in scale.

Russia has attacked with barely enough troops for a fraction of the front they attacked.
I was convinced they weren't going to invade as their forces were nowhere near enough.

It's just an over extended single battle.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

There is also the option that the Russian hardware was always crap.

You can work around bad equipment. You can't work around bad command.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

You can work around bad equipment. You can't work around bad command.

It's all part of the same thing though.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by crescent

He's back on, but is already putting out a different message:

"Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia Eastasia."

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

There is also the option that the Russian hardware was always crap.

Does that explain them running out of gas for tanks and having to send barely trained conscripts? And where are the MIGs flying sorties?

This is all good, mind you.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by jimbob

It wasn't LBJ and McNamara that I was thinking of in the exchanges below.

You want another parallel?

Russia is so desperate that it has now started to unveil its experimental "super weapons".

Russia touts new generation of 'blinding' laser weapons in Ukraine conflict

Quote:

Russia has been using a new generation of powerful lasers in Ukraine to burn up drones, according to a high-ranking government official.

Yury Borisov, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of military development, said the deployment of some of Moscow's secret weapons was in part to counter a flood of Western arms.

Little is known about the specifics of the new laser but in 2018 President Vladimir Putin mentioned one called Peresvet, named after a medieval Orthodox warrior monk Alexander Peresvet who perished in mortal combat.

Mr Borisov told a conference in Moscow on Wednesday that Peresvet was already being widely deployed and it could blind satellites up to 1,500km above Earth.

He said there were already more powerful systems than Peresvet that could burn up drones and other equipment.