[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (3)

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I think what we're seeing here is a concatenation of all the falsified readiness reports at all levels of the Russian military apparatus, rolling up into a totally unrealistic picture that Putin was in no position to debunk.

This is a danger to every dictator: you cannot control the flow of information to your population without poisoning your own information streams as well.

[trustbutverify]

Originally Posted by crescent

He's back on, but is already putting out a different message:

I assume he has loved ones to protect.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

I think you need to add in the corruption that has been rampant in Russia for years. Someone sifted (grifted?) a lot of profits off the military budget. Putin must have been asleep at the wheel not to notice how decrepit the military was getting.


Oh, and this realization might be why Putin stopped threatening Finland.

There's always the chance that the river argument got to him. Russia's having that much trouble with even just one river. Take a look at Finland's river map, then, and, well...

There's also the Finnish bunker point. Just look at how much trouble they had with Mariupol. Now, apply that to pretty much every settlement of significance. I would absolutely hate to have anything to do with an invasion of Finland from a tactical or strategic perspective.

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

You want another parallel?

Russia is so desperate that it has now started to unveil its experimental "super weapons".

Russia touts new generation of 'blinding' laser weapons in Ukraine conflict

unless they are attached to the heads of sharks, I'm not worried.

[The Don]

Sad to see that Russia continues to play to type:

Quote:

More than 900 Ukrainian fighters who had been holed up in Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant have been taken to a prison colony in Russian-controlled territory, Moscow has said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

I fear that not one of those men will see the light of day again and will either be tried and executed in show trials or simply murdered in prison.

[arthwollipot]

Russian soldier pleads guilty in first Ukraine war crimes trial since invasion

Quote:

Tank commander Vadim Shysimarin, 21, admits shooting dead a 62-year-old civilian who was on a bicycle


A Russian tank commander has pleaded guilty to shooting dead a 62-year-old man as he rode his bicycle down a village road, in Ukraine’s first trial for war crimes committed during the Russian invasion.

Vadim Shysimarin, 21, sat emotionless as prosecutors detailed charges that he had fired his AK-47 at the unarmed cyclist from the window of a car in the north-eastern Sumy region in late February.

Prosecutors have moved fast. It is extremely unusual to hold a trial while a conflict is still ongoing, and unprecedented to do it within weeks. The victim was shot dead less than three months ago, in the first days after the invasion.

But Ukraine has made seeking justice for atrocities committed by Russian troops a priority. National prosecutors are risking their own lives to collect evidence of war crimes even in areas still threatened by enemy forces or laced with mines.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by The Don

Sad to see that Russia continues to play to type:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

I fear that not one of those men will see the light of day again and will either be tried and executed in show trials or simply murdered in prison.

There's not necessarily anything sinister in prisoners of war being taken to a prison camp. Sure, the Russians (or the separatists) were making blood curdling threats about wiping out the NAZIs, but that was when they were still deluded into thinking they were winning. It's still possible a prisoner exchange deal is in the works.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

There is also the option that the Russian hardware was always crap.

I like it!

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

Russian soldier pleads guilty in first Ukraine war crimes trial since invasion

This guy is 21-years-old but looks younger, in fact like a gormless teenager, and he was the Commander?

Putin and his generals have to take responsibility for the wanton and senseless massacres, looting, raping and senseless vandalism of his own army.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Ukraine is completely different to Vietnam in scale.

Russia has attacked with barely enough troops for a fraction of the front they attacked.
I was convinced they weren't going to invade as their forces were nowhere near enough.

It's just an over extended single battle.

It is different in scale - The US forces peaked at over half half a million. In a country of half the population of Ukraine 20 million in South Vietnam.

in scope, the aims look to be more ambitious than the US aims in Vietnam.

[jeremyp]

Originally Posted by Vixen

This guy is 21-years-old but looks younger, in fact like a gormless teenager, and he was the Commander?

Putin and his generals have to take responsibility for the wanton and senseless massacres, looting, raping and senseless vandalism of his own army.

He was a tank commander. He was only in command of one tank.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Lol beyond parody

Quote:

Former President George W. Bush: “The decision of one man to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq. I mean of Ukraine.”

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/statu...92111195226114

I think we can close the book on Freudian slips, there will never be a more potent example.

[The Great Zaganza]

The man wants to put SNL out of business.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

The man wants to put SNL out of business.

if someone wrote this joke they'd rightly be mocked as being a heavy-handed hack.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by jeremyp

He was a tank commander. He was only in command of one tank.

OK, thanks.

[SpitfireIX]

The US Senate just passed the $40 billion Ukraine Aid bill. Hopefully Biden will sign it today.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

It's all part of the same thing though.

Actually I don't think it is. Russian gear has some economic and technical limitations that tend to make it inferior to western gear. Explosive reactive armor, instead of composite armor, for example. And they've certainly made their share of design mistakes. But then, who hasn't*?

But I think that's very distinct from combat ineffectiveness arising from poor training, morale, and logistics. A T-72 may not be as effective as an M1A1. But I think a well-maintained T-72, with a well-trained crew and adequate supplies, is certainly effective enough to do the kind of jobs the Russians are currently failing at. Failing not because the tank is crap, but because the Russian troops and commanders are crap.

Again, the Ukrainians have largely the same gear, but they're performing a lot better. So the economic and technological limitations of Russian gear don't tell the whole story of what's happening in Ukraine.

I'd even go so far as to say that Russian gear loses out to western gear not so much because the Russian gear is crap, but because the western gear is just better.

---
*Except for the Swedes and maybe the Israelis.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Actually I don't think it is. Russian gear has some economic and technical limitations that tend to make it inferior to western gear. Explosive reactive armor, instead of composite armor, for example. And they've certainly made their share of design mistakes. But then, who hasn't*?

But I think that's very distinct from combat ineffectiveness arising from poor training, morale, and logistics.

In a sense, you are correct. Combat effectiveness comes not just from equipment, but also training, tactics, doctrine, logistical support, etc.

But Russia seems kind of crap (or mediocre at best) across the board. And I think his point is that they're kind of crap across the board for the same reasons. It's a corrupt authoritarian society that attempts top-down management of systems that are too complex to be adequately managed that way. And that screws up everything. It screws up training, because soldiers aren't taught to take initiative. It screws up logistics, because people skim off the top and don't maintain equipment adequately or properly plan for needed capacities. It screws up equipment quality because the country is poor and can't afford to invest heavily in development. You can indeed look at all these different pieces of the combat effectiveness pie, but it's no coincidence that Russia is bad at all of them, not just one.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

In a sense, you are correct. Combat effectiveness comes not just from equipment, but also training, tactics, doctrine, logistical support, etc.

But Russia seems kind of crap (or mediocre at best) across the board. And I think his point is that they're kind of crap across the board for the same reasons. It's a corrupt authoritarian society that attempts top-down management of systems that are too complex to be adequately managed that way. And that screws up everything. It screws up training, because soldiers aren't taught to take initiative. It screws up logistics, because people skim off the top and don't maintain equipment adequately or properly plan for needed capacities. It screws up equipment quality because the country is poor and can't afford to invest heavily in development. You can indeed look at all these different pieces of the combat effectiveness pie, but it's no coincidence that Russia is bad at all of them, not just one.

And with spending on things that look good but without the spending on the boring stuff that enables them.

Look how many super weapons the Russians keep touting. When they are issuing bolt action rifles to their conscripts from occupied Ukraine. Or having infantry relying on mobile phones and unencrypted radios.

[Border Reiver]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Actually I don't think it is. Russian gear has some economic and technical limitations that tend to make it inferior to western gear. Explosive reactive armor, instead of composite armor, for example. And they've certainly made their share of design mistakes. But then, who hasn't*?

But I think that's very distinct from combat ineffectiveness arising from poor training, morale, and logistics. A T-72 may not be as effective as an M1A1. But I think a well-maintained T-72, with a well-trained crew and adequate supplies, is certainly effective enough to do the kind of jobs the Russians are currently failing at. Failing not because the tank is crap, but because the Russian troops and commanders are crap.

Again, the Ukrainians have largely the same gear, but they're performing a lot better. So the economic and technological limitations of Russian gear don't tell the whole story of what's happening in Ukraine.

I'd even go so far as to say that Russian gear loses out to western gear not so much because the Russian gear is crap, but because the western gear is just better.

---
*Except for the Swedes and maybe the Israelis.

This. The Ukrainians have spent quite a bit of time and effort since 2014 to professionalize their armed forces and seem to be employing their tanks in the manner that they should be used (with adequate support) and seem to have been kept properly maintained, vice the Russians who are seemingly operating without the combined arms tactics that they helped to develop....

[jimbob]

Well, this seems stupid - by the standards of Russia's long-term goals.

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...20place.%C2%A0

Quote:

Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a resort city, depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place. Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin stated that DNR authorities are planning to level Azovstal after completing its capture.[1] Azovstal was a major element of Mariupol’s economy before the war because of its unique function as a full-cycle metallurgical complex, the 10,000 jobs associated with production at the plant, the billions of dollars of foreign exchange earnings and taxes it generated, and its production output of 7,000 tons of steel, 6 million tons of iron, and 4.5 million tons of rolled metal, according to the Mariupol City Council.[2] Pushilin stated that the DNR intends to rebuild Mariupol to be a “resort city,” while admitting that 60% of the structures in Mariupol have been destroyed to the point where they cannot be rebuilt.[3] The announced plan to turn Mariupol into a center of tourism and leisure following the complete destruction of a major center of economic activity in Mariupol, is indicative of the damage that Russian troops have inflicted on themselves through the destruction of Mariupol. Russia does not need another resort town on the Black Sea. It does need the kind of hard currency that a plant like Azovstal had generated. This announcement epitomizes the kind of Pyrrhic victories Russian forces have won in Ukraine, to the extent that they have won victories at all.

Unless of course Russia is planning on abandoning Mariupol so it doesn't want Ukraine to have it?

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Well, this seems stupid - by the standards of Russia's long-term goals.

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...20place.%C2%A0




Unless of course Russia is planning on abandoning Mariupol so it doesn't want Ukraine to have it?

The plan was always for Russia to completely de-industrialize Ukraine once it was under its control - remember, no country is allowed to do better than Russia under Putin.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by Border Reiver

This. The Ukrainians have spent quite a bit of time and effort since 2014 to professionalize their armed forces and seem to be employing their tanks in the manner that they should be used (with adequate support) and seem to have been kept properly maintained, vice the Russians who are seemingly operating without the combined arms tactics that they helped to develop....

Since 2014 NATO countries have been sending a lot of military advisors to train the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainians themselves have fully bought in to these efforts. The results of this are a major reason why the Russians "look so bad". In terms of training, doctrine, etc they are more or less going directly against a NATO force for the first time and the difference between that and fighting semi-organized rebels or Soviet holdovers is immense.

IMO if Ukraine had NATO military hardware as well, this would have been a short quick war in their favor.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Border Reiver

This. The Ukrainians have spent quite a bit of time and effort since 2014 to professionalize their armed forces and seem to be employing their tanks in the manner that they should be used (with adequate support) and seem to have been kept properly maintained, vice the Russians who are seemingly operating without the combined arms tactics that they helped to develop....

Did Russia develop combined arms, they certainly seem to have reverted to the 'tank rush' in this conflict.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Well, this seems stupid - by the standards of Russia's long-term goals.

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...20place.%C2%A0




Unless of course Russia is planning on abandoning Mariupol so it doesn't want Ukraine to have it?

They know they aren't going to hold it so the plan is to do as much damage as possible before leaving.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

The plan was always for Russia to completely de-industrialize Ukraine once it was under its control - remember, no country is allowed to do better than Russia under Putin.

I now want HansMunstermann to pop in with a nice historical parallel about some other dictator who wanted to de industrialise that part of Europe, and why it was stupid.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

They know they aren't going to hold it so the plan is to do as much damage as possible before leaving.

That's what it seems to me.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by jimbob

I now want HansMunstermann to pop in with a nice historical parallel about some other dictator who wanted to de industrialise that part of Europe, and why it was stupid.

It's why the German's didn't care about the damage done to Stalingrad.
They were going to build their own new cities.

[The Don]

Just checked Flightradar, no planes flying round in circles near Ukraine. Have NATO stopped electronic monitoring, or have they just switched off their transponders ?

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Did Russia develop combined arms

Yes

[kookbreaker]

Originally Posted by Border Reiver

This. The Ukrainians have spent quite a bit of time and effort since 2014 to professionalize their armed forces and seem to be employing their tanks in the manner that they should be used (with adequate support) and seem to have been kept properly maintained, vice the Russians who are seemingly operating without the combined arms tactics that they helped to develop....

The parallel here would seem to be lessons learned from the various Arab-Israeli wars. The Arabic countries either had slipshod gear and training (in the early wars) or Soviet gear and Soviet advisors (for the later wars). Except for Egypt who kicked out their Soviet advisors after the six days war and worked out their own doctrine for the Yom Kippur war in ‘73. They did much better than their still Soviet advised Arabic nations, even though they were still using Soviet gear. They even gave Israel a bloody nose. But when the other nations got in trouble they had to make some dumb moves to try and save them.

[Captain_Swoop]

Russia's laser weapon claim derided as propaganda

Quote:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mocked the Russian claim, comparing it to the so-called "wonder weapons" that Nazi Germany claimed to be developing during World War Two.

"The clearer it became that they had no chance in the war, the more propaganda there was about an amazing weapon that would be so powerful as to ensure a turning point," he said in a video address.

"And so we see that in the third month of a full-scale war, Russia is trying to find its 'wonder weapon'... this all clearly shows the complete failure of the mission."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61508922

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by kookbreaker

The parallel here would seem to be lessons learned from the various Arab-Israeli wars. The Arabic countries either had slipshod gear and training (in the early wars) or Soviet gear and Soviet advisors (for the later wars). Except for Egypt who kicked out their Soviet advisors after the six days war and worked out their own doctrine for the Yom Kippur war in ‘73. They did much better than their still Soviet advised Arabic nations, even though they were still using Soviet gear. They even gave Israel a bloody nose. But when the other nations got in trouble they had to make some dumb moves to try and save them.

There's an old joke that the Arabs weren't losing, they were just following the Soviet/Russian doctrine of luring the enemy deep into your territory and waiting for winter.

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Yes

The BTG was probably about as far as they got. It was all good on paper but never really trained for.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

The man wants to put SNL out of business.

I'm pretty sure that all the late night shows are going to may hay out of this. Gaffes like that keep them in business, they don't put them out of it.

[TJM]

Originally Posted by The Don

Just checked Flightradar, no planes flying round in circles near Ukraine. Have NATO stopped electronic monitoring, or have they just switched off their transponders ?

Interesting things today -

This morning about 0630 Pacific time a NATO E-3 Sentry call sign NATO 11 was orbiting over eastern Romania along with a Bombardier Challenger 650 business jet (no call sign or government ID) which was flying a much smaller orbit near the southern end of NATO 11's orbit.

At the moment FORTE11 (RQ-4B Global Hawk) which since the beginning of the war has been routinely tracked orbiting over the Black Sea has deviated and is now orbiting near Romania's north border with Ukraine.

Also of of interest is an an increase of activity of US and Japanese military flights over Japan and The Sea of Japan - An RC135S Cobra Ball ( call sign HADES99 ) is on station over The Sea of Japan and several US C-130 and JASDF aircraft are active over the islands.

Haven't been following NK lately - Is Little Kim throwing his toys from the pram again because Vladolph is getting all the attention?

[Wildy]

Last I heard NK announced that they had cases of the plague and then launched some missiles.

[zorro99]

Three months into the invasion and the only thing the Russians have accomplished is seizing Mariupol, a city of less than half million. Ukraine successfully repelled the Russians from Kiev and other cities. Zelensky is still alive and well whilst Russian supporters are griping about the incompetence of senior leadership. Advantage Ukraine.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Did Russia develop combined arms, they certainly seem to have reverted to the 'tank rush' in this conflict.

Combined arms has been used in various forms for hundreds of years. Combining infantry artillery and cavalry was key to Napoleons' success and Wellingtons' army was organized on a similar basis at Waterloo. In WW1 combined arms was one of the keys to the success of the 100 days, in WWII Germany was employing combined arms tactics from nearly the start.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by lomiller

Combined arms has been used in various forms for hundreds of years. Combining infantry artillery and cavalry was key to Napoleons' success and Wellingtons' army was organized on a similar basis at Waterloo. In WW1 combined arms was one of the keys to the success of the 100 days, in WWII Germany was employing combined arms tactics from nearly the start.

It could be argued that the Romans invented combined arms.