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Old 17th October 2020, 04:27 PM   #841
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I see the continuing rise in the market as perhaps a rise in the people's ownership of the market.
Whereas I see as guaranteed to increase inequality.

We already have the situation in NZ where home ownership is out of reach of people unless their parents can give them a couple of hundred grand.
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Old 17th October 2020, 05:23 PM   #842
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Whereas I see as guaranteed to increase inequality.

We already have the situation in NZ where home ownership is out of reach of people unless their parents can give them a couple of hundred grand.
We're talking about the share market. You can buy a parcel of shares for $500. That won't get you a house deposit.
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Old 17th October 2020, 08:54 PM   #843
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Ok, I thought you were on the housing market. Where the sharemarket is doesn't matter too much in terms of inequality.
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Old 19th October 2020, 02:50 PM   #844
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The Wall Street Journal's take on the disconnect between the economy and the stock market:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFJj4E1G2Qc

Basic summary:1. The FED printed a bunch of money, among other things. (By "printed a lot of money", I mean "bought a lot of US Treasuries". That's basically the same thing.
2. Tech stocks like Amzon, Apple, Google, did loads of business because so many things went online.
3. Individual investors with time on their hands opened brokerage accounts.

This all still seems very fragile to me, but, I'm not exactly an acknowledged expert on this stuff.
Tech stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google.....
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Old 25th October 2020, 02:41 PM   #845
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I remember even 3 years ago there was talk of "roboinvesting". (Passively-managed online platforms.)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r...oboadviser.asp

Quote:
-Robo-advisors (roboadvisors, robo-advisers) are digital platforms that provide automated, algorithm-driven investment services with little to no human supervision.
-Robo-advisors most often automate and optimize passive indexing strategies that follow mean-variance optimization.
-Robo-advisors are often very inexpensive and require very low opening balances so that nearly everybody can benefit from a robo-advisor if they choose.
So much is online these days, including investment. It's reaching those younger than the patronage we have at ISF.

Those robo-investments in turn invest in the market, and even if the individual investors only have a very tiny holding, the market grows.

I know one Australian company, and it's also growing quickly in Indonesia and Singapore.
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Old 25th October 2020, 03:05 PM   #846
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I remember even 3 years ago there was talk of "roboinvesting". (Passively-managed online platforms.)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r...oboadviser.asp



So much is online these days, including investment. It's reaching those younger than the patronage we have at ISF.

Those robo-investments in turn invest in the market, and even if the individual investors only have a very tiny holding, the market grows.

I know one Australian company, and it's also growing quickly in Indonesia and Singapore.
The best way to establish transaction cost is buy and sell simultaneously on a platform. I donít know but I can see this trending cheaper so money lasts longer but on average it disappears into the platform and its proprietors.
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Old 25th October 2020, 04:33 PM   #847
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The best way to establish transaction cost is buy and sell simultaneously on a platform. I donít know but I can see this trending cheaper so money lasts longer but on average it disappears into the platform and its proprietors.
It depends on the platform, so you could say it trends cheaper.
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Old 28th October 2020, 01:39 AM   #848
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Could be a little dose of reality happening in the US sharemarket right now - including the current -400 points in futures - the Dow is down almost 10% in the past couple of days.
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Old 28th October 2020, 01:46 AM   #849
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Could be a little dose of reality happening in the US sharemarket right now - including the current -400 points in futures - the Dow is down almost 10% in the past couple of days.
Yes and ftse is trading the same price first achieved January 1998.
22 years.
3% return per year.
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Old 28th October 2020, 03:53 AM   #850
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Could be a little dose of reality happening in the US sharemarket right now - including the current -400 points in futures - the Dow is down almost 10% in the past couple of days.
"Wolf! Wolf!"

How many times have you pointed out dreadful, dramatic drops in this thread? How many times has it actually stayed down?
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Old 28th October 2020, 07:40 AM   #851
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
"Wolf! Wolf!"

How many times have you pointed out dreadful, dramatic drops in this thread? How many times has it actually stayed down?
This time it's different.
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Old 28th October 2020, 08:49 AM   #852
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I think it's pretty clear that whatever is happening in the markets, the "black swan" never arrived. There was a mighty fall, but it proved to be a short term blip, not unlike quite a few others. Maybe a little bit harder fall. Maybe a little bit slower recovery, but really just a short term event that separated some people who panicked from their money. (I lost a little bit that way myself. I think if I hadn't sold out of some caution, my IRA would have about 2-3% more than it does now. Nothing to sneeze at, but nothing to panic over, either.)

Right now, the market is slightly lower than it was one year ago, which makes sense, given that a year ago people were starting to say that it was overvalued.

The good thing is that the economy did not self destruct, either in the US or the world. That means stocks should still be fine overall. As weird as the world is today with the ongoing pandemic, the black swan may have been just a shadow from a goose flying overhead.
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Old 28th October 2020, 10:36 AM   #853
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
How many times have you pointed out dreadful, dramatic drops in this thread?
Try reading with your eyes open next time.

My post stated:

Could be a little dose of reality happening in the US sharemarket right now

Does it say anything about dramatic or dreadful?

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
How many times has it actually stayed down?
Zero so far, but when trillions of dollars are being thrown around at negative interest rates, it's not really that surprising.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think it's pretty clear that whatever is happening in the markets, the "black swan" never arrived.
The Black Swan landed alright, but it didn't affect the sharemarkets beyond the initial drop that soon dissipated.

The real effects are the massive increase in inequality and poverty, but since they only affect poor people, it doesn't matter.
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Old 28th October 2020, 12:50 PM   #854
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think it's pretty clear that whatever is happening in the markets, the "black swan" never arrived.
Oh it's arrived alright, it just hasn't finished flapping its wings yet.

Quote:
Right now, the market is slightly lower than it was one year ago, which makes sense, given that a year ago people were starting to say that it was overvalued.
Lower that it was a year ago, and still overvalued.

Quote:
The good thing is that the economy did not self destruct, either in the US or the world.
Who said the economy would self-destruct?

Quote:
That means stocks should still be fine overall. As weird as the world is today with the ongoing pandemic, the black swan may have been just a shadow from a goose flying overhead.
You are making presumptions. The thing about Black swan events is they don't follow the normal pattern. Until this pandemic is over we won't know what effect it had on the economy, and it's far from over.
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Old 28th October 2020, 03:52 PM   #855
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Until this pandemic is over we won't know what effect it had on the economy, and it's far from over.
This is a point I have to keep reiterating - the pandemic is 15-20% through the first wave.

Very far from over, and the impact will be felt for decades.
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Old 28th October 2020, 04:44 PM   #856
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This is where the Swan's hiding - in plain sight:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...id-talks-stall

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ntinue-to-bite

And they're not even the tip of the iceberg - that's the amount you'd put in a good Martini: barely visible.
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Old 29th October 2020, 10:50 PM   #857
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Nasty skid brewing for friday and monday
Couldnt happen to a nicer bunch of greed merchants.
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Old Yesterday, 12:02 AM   #858
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I'll give the optimist's prediction:

The market will bounce back if Trump does or doesn't win.

Whether the economy will... still not sure whose measurements anyone goes by.
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Old Yesterday, 12:55 AM   #859
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Whether the economy will... still not sure whose measurements anyone goes by.
The official measures are GDP and unemployment, and they're both going to get a lot worse before they get better.

I keep having to remind people, we've only just started on all this - we're max 20% through the pandemic, and maybe 10% through the fallout.
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Old Yesterday, 01:25 AM   #860
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The official measures are GDP and unemployment, and they're both going to get a lot worse before they get better.
I'd like to know how automated production of goods and services affects "the economy", and if "the economy" is ever going to change its definition because of technology making human employees less necessary.


Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I keep having to remind people, we've only just started on all this - we're max 20% through the pandemic, and maybe 10% through the fallout.
Pretty much. We're IN "the new normal".
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Old Yesterday, 02:29 AM   #861
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I'd like to know how automated production of goods and services affects "the economy", and if "the economy" is ever going to change its definition because of technology making human employees less necessary.
That's probably a subject for a new thread, and I have plenty to say on the subject, so fire away!

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Pretty much. We're IN "the new normal".
Jury's still out on that, I reckon. It's a point to look at in six months or so.
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Old Yesterday, 08:59 PM   #862
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That's probably a subject for a new thread, and I have plenty to say on the subject, so fire away!
Done!

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=347668
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