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Old 29th October 2020, 02:47 AM   #1881
The Don
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
No, it was 100,000 infections a day

Quote:
But it sets out a grim scenario under which 85,000 people could die from Covid between now and April, with 356,000 spending time in hospital and infections peaking at 100,000 a day.
I almost fainted when I saw 100,000 deaths a day.

I reckon we'll look back at that and wish we had got away that lightly

We're currently at over 20,000 positive cases a day (7 day rolling average from a couple of days ago) and increasing exponentially

Last edited by The Don; 29th October 2020 at 02:53 AM.
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Old 29th October 2020, 03:27 AM   #1882
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Good catch. That'll teach me to post on a couple of hours sleep.
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Old 29th October 2020, 03:29 AM   #1883
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This is going to be a looong winter. I wonder if it will get a name afterwards, like "The Winter of Mourning" or somesuch.
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Old 29th October 2020, 03:33 AM   #1884
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
This is going to be a looong winter. I wonder if it will get a name afterwards, like "The Winter of Mourning" or somesuch.
For those of us living in the UK, the effects of a no-deal Brexit are likely to dwarf those of Covid. I fear that we'll be looking back to Q4 2020 as some kind of halcyon time before things really got bad.
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Old 29th October 2020, 03:40 AM   #1885
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
For those of us living in the UK, the effects of a no-deal Brexit are likely to dwarf those of Covid. I fear that we'll be looking back to Q4 2020 as some kind of halcyon time before things really got bad.
While for those of us who live outside the UK the corona-virus is the big thing. Nobody cares about Brexit anymore. Feel free the to slam the door on your way out if it makes you feel better.

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Old 29th October 2020, 04:11 AM   #1886
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Old 29th October 2020, 04:26 AM   #1887
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If the study performed by Imperial College is accurate, we're already at 100k infections a day

Quote:
Nearly 100,000 people are catching coronavirus every day in England, a major analysis suggests.

The study, by Imperial College London, says the pace of the epidemic is accelerating and estimates the number of people infected is now doubling every nine days.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962
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Old 29th October 2020, 04:45 AM   #1888
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Never mind.
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Old 29th October 2020, 04:52 AM   #1889
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Originally Posted by malbui View Post
So weíre in lockdown from tomorrow evening until at least 1 December. Iím really not looking forward to this.
Guess who has a booking on a ferry to France tonight. Two weeks of staying in the house in the Vendee, then two weeks of staying in the house in Buckinghamshire.

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Old 29th October 2020, 04:53 AM   #1890
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
No **** ?

I use the Zoe app most days to report my (lack of) Covid test results and (absence of) symptoms. Over the summer it was satisfying to see that the estimated number of active cases in Monmouthshire was low double digits.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

This morning the estimated number of Covid cases is 994 which is a smidge over 1% of the population.

It will take several weeks for the effects of the Welsh lockdown to be shown in the infection numbers. Given that hospitalisations and deaths are trailing indicators, even if the lockdown is effective the weekly death numbers are likely to be rising until close to Christmas.

Yes, most of November's deaths will be due to infections that have already happened.
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Old 29th October 2020, 04:56 AM   #1891
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UK government is saying no plans to follow France into a full lockdown in England... So next Friday then?
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Old 29th October 2020, 05:02 AM   #1892
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
UK government is saying no plans to follow France into a full lockdown in England... So next Friday then?
Yes we will not follow France into lockdown - instead we'll have our own post-Brexit, sovereignty regained, lockdown.

If everything else to do with Brexit is an indicator, it'll be more expensive and less effective than the ones adopted by our EU colleagues enemies.
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Old 29th October 2020, 05:03 AM   #1893
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If the study performed by Imperial College is accurate, we're already at 100k infections a day
And 310 deaths reported yesterday. A few weeks ago, Piers Moron was pooh-poohing the idea that we could be seeing 50,000 new cases and 200 deaths per day in October. [checks calendar] Yep, he's an idiot.

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Old 29th October 2020, 05:07 AM   #1894
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
UK government is saying no plans to follow France into a full lockdown in England... So next Friday then?

Depends on whether thereís something Boris needs to distract attention from.
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Old 29th October 2020, 05:47 AM   #1895
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
Depends on whether thereís something Boris needs to distract attention from.
Itís the tories, that goes without saying!
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Old 29th October 2020, 05:57 AM   #1896
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Itís the tories, that goes without saying!

Something that, at the time, looks worse for him than a full lockdown.
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Old 29th October 2020, 05:59 AM   #1897
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Itís the tories, that goes without saying!
Unless he can find a way to monetise it for his buddies they will do pretty much anything to avoid a full national lockdown.
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Old 29th October 2020, 09:00 AM   #1898
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
No, it was 100,000 infections a day



I almost fainted when I saw 100,000 deaths a day.

I reckon we'll look back at that and wish we had got away that lightly

We're currently at over 20,000 positive cases a day (7 day rolling average from a couple of days ago) and increasing exponentially
Because someone asked me on Twitter after seeing my log plot - here are the UK daily rolling 7day deaths from 10th September.

That's a scary exponential.
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Old Yesterday, 05:18 AM   #1899
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Shut Up !

Apparently talking indoors helped to cause the latest Covid spike in Wales:

Quote:
Chatting in pubs, restaurants and homes was "mostly" how coronavirus spread before Wales' firebreak lockdown, Public Health Wales has said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-w...ost_type=share

See ? I'm being socially responsible, not rude, when I sit silently next to Mrs Don.
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Old Yesterday, 08:40 AM   #1900
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Shut Up !

Apparently talking indoors helped to cause the latest Covid spike in Wales:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-w...ost_type=share

See ? I'm being socially responsible, not rude, when I sit silently next to Mrs Don.
This is a slightly better link, direct to the story.

As for singing, that is definitely a factor. A band I know had a practice recently, and one member turned out to be infected beforehand (he'd had some mild symptoms), and now five of the other six are positive. I don't know how closely they followed the social distancing guidelines. The one who was originally infected is exactly the one you'd have guessed would be less than careful (Facebook posts about CTs to suppress hydroxychloroquine, anti-BLM posts, complaining about political correctness"...).
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Old Yesterday, 10:17 AM   #1901
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Oh **** !

Quote:
Covid is spreading "significantly" faster through England than even the government's predicted "worst-case" scenario, documents reveal.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says there are around four times as many people catching Covid than anticipated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775

Looks like Boris Johnson will have to take a couple of weekends with Dom to work out whether the headlines about cancelling Christmas will be worse than the headlines about thousands a day dying over Christmas
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Old Yesterday, 10:19 AM   #1902
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
This is a slightly better link, direct to the story.

As for singing, that is definitely a factor. A band I know had a practice recently, and one member turned out to be infected beforehand (he'd had some mild symptoms), and now five of the other six are positive. I don't know how closely they followed the social distancing guidelines. The one who was originally infected is exactly the one you'd have guessed would be less than careful (Facebook posts about CTs to suppress hydroxychloroquine, anti-BLM posts, complaining about political correctness"...).
Band practice is something we've been very careful about.

In August and September we were able to rehearse outdoors but now, because we're from three households, it'll be dodgy and our drummer is over 70 so at considerable risk
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Old Yesterday, 04:00 PM   #1903
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Shut Up !

Apparently talking indoors helped to cause the latest Covid spike in Wales:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-w...ost_type=share

See ? I'm being socially responsible, not rude, when I sit silently next to Mrs Don.
I think Edmond Blackadder has the wot of it.
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Old Yesterday, 04:42 PM   #1904
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
UK government is saying no plans to follow France into a full lockdown in England... So next Friday then?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nd-experts-say

.... longer will be needed. Photograph: Hollie Adams/Getty Images
Boris Johnson has bowed to pressure from his scientific advisers for new national lockdown restrictions, which are expected to be announced early next week, the Guardian has been told...

Iím at the stage of numb acceptance.
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Old Yesterday, 05:12 PM   #1905
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It will take several weeks for the effects of the Welsh lockdown to be shown in the infection numbers. Given that hospitalisations and deaths are trailing indicators, even if the lockdown is effective the weekly death numbers are likely to be rising until close to Christmas.

It took Victoria 111 days to go from 100's of cases per day to zero on October 26, and an ongoing 14 day average of less than 5 (which was the requirement for a partial reopening. And the peak day of 751 new cases occurred after the full lockdown started.



And all of this essentially started back in June from one case of a brain dead untrained security guard bonking somebody who returned from overseas and was in Hotel lock down.



If you don't have the numbers under control AND have a great test/trace/isolate system, I don't believe it can be stopped. IIRC, the UK mostly reopened while there was still an average of around 500 new cases per day. That was just an invitation to the virus.



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Old Yesterday, 05:17 PM   #1906
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nd-experts-say

.... longer will be needed. Photograph: Hollie Adams/Getty Images
Boris Johnson has bowed to pressure from his scientific advisers for new national lockdown restrictions, which are expected to be announced early next week, the Guardian has been told...

Iím at the stage of numb acceptance.
Yeah, but are you comfortably numb?
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Old Today, 02:30 AM   #1907
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nd-experts-say

.... longer will be needed. Photograph: Hollie Adams/Getty Images
Boris Johnson has bowed to pressure from his scientific advisers for new national lockdown restrictions, which are expected to be announced early next week, the Guardian has been told...

Iím at the stage of numb acceptance.
It's OK, given the glacial pace of Johnson's responses, he's probably going to be able to claim that the December figures are unprecedented. 🙁
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US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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