[Merged] Bitcoin - Part 3 - Page 64

The Great Zaganza · 1st July 2022, 12:29 AM

The tragedy of Crypto is that it correctly identifies all the problems with modern banking and finance, and then proceeds to repeat them all.

psionl0 · 1st July 2022, 12:30 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

The tragedy of Crypto is that it correctly identifies all the problems with modern banking and finance, and then proceeds to repeat them all.

You're going to have to explain that one to me.

carlitos · 1st July 2022, 07:29 PM

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

It's still 6 times more than March 2020. So nothing really out of ordinary.
Bottoms on logarithmic graph line up quite well since forever. 20 is somewhat bellow that line though.
So as always .. it's either good time to buy .. or the end

Bitcoin has now underperformed the S&P 500 since the start of 2018. Maybe now is a good time to buy that instead. Or better yet a Russel 2000 index fund, since it has lower price:earnings ratios.

jeremyp · 3rd July 2022, 05:28 AM

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Ponzi scheme usually works with investment and returns, which are taken from investments of new users. No other transaction is possible. Price is fixed. It's centralized. Usually does not have global reach. Usually is not electronic. Usually actually you buy something physical (or service) for you investment. It would be easier to sum what's similar with ponzi scheme: people invest money into it in believe they will make money, while it's clear that most of them won't. Also the fact the investors usually do not understand the mechanism well. And that's about it.

Firstly, you are using the word "usually" quite a lot which means that many of the features you listed are not absolutely needed for something to be a Ponzi scheme. For example the "usually actually you buy something physical" feature is only applicable to a subset of Ponzi schemes called "multi-level marketing".

The thing that makes Bitcoin similar to a Ponzi scheme is that the the early investors make money at the expense of the later investors and there is no other mechanism for increasing the value of Bitcoins.

Quote:

Is gold commodity or ponzi scheme then ?

Gold is a commodity.

Quote:

Why do we need gold ?

Gold is malleable, shiny, doesn't tarnish and it also conducts electricity very well. That makes it extremely sought after for jewellery and electronics.

This is the problem with the crypto cultists. They think answering a question with a question makes them look smart.

Quote:

Why can't you accept it's simply something new ? Something which has features of commodities, also features of currencies, and also has features nothing else has.

Why can't you answer the damn question?

I've told you what we need gold for. Now you tell me what we need cryptocurrency for.

psionl0 · 3rd July 2022, 06:44 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

The thing that makes Bitcoin similar to a Ponzi scheme is that the the early investors make money at the expense of the later investors and there is no other mechanism for increasing the value of Bitcoins.

Ponzi schemes work until the investors find out that there is no money making scheme in it after all. Only then do those still invested in the scheme lose their investment.

You are saying that Ponzi schemes fail in the end and bitcoin will fail in the end therefore bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. This is the equivalent of saying my dog is a cat because it has 4 legs.

You have no basis for saying that bitcoin will fail in the end except for a fortune cookie. You can't assume that it is a ponzi scheme because that is what you are trying to prove. This is the logical fallacy of "begging the question".

The simple fact is that bitcoin is a tradable digital asset. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Dr.Sid · 3rd July 2022, 04:55 PM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

The thing that makes Bitcoin similar to a Ponzi scheme is that the the early investors make money at the expense of the later investors and there is no other mechanism for increasing the value of Bitcoins.

But that's not true. In ponzi scheme the 'market cap' rises, rises .. and then it collapses. Bitcoin is normally traded, the price goes up, down, up again. Buying early and selling later does not guarantee profit. You have to buy low, and sell high. And for example now the price is dropping, so people who buy later are in better position to make profit.

Originally Posted by jeremyp

Gold is a commodity.

What would be the price of gold if it suddenly become abundant, let's say like iron ? In other words, how big % of gold price is it's usefulness, and how big % of the price is just a hype ?

Originally Posted by jeremyp

I've told you what we need gold for. Now you tell me what we need cryptocurrency for.

We don't really need cryptocurrency. Just as we don't really need gold. Both are useful for some things .. but that is not what dictates their price. Both are primarily used as means of value transfer, as store of value (also both independent of governments), and for speculation.

Dr. Keith · 3rd July 2022, 08:46 PM

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

But that's not true. In ponzi scheme the 'market cap' rises, rises .. and then it collapses. Bitcoin is normally traded, the price goes up, down, up again. Buying early and selling later does not guarantee profit. You have to buy low, and sell high. And for example now the price is dropping, so people who buy later are in better position to make profit.

What would be the price of gold if it suddenly become abundant, let's say like iron ? In other words, how big % of gold price is it's usefulness, and how big % of the price is just a hype ?

We don't really need cryptocurrency. Just as we don't really need gold. Both are useful for some things .. but that is not what dictates their price. Both are primarily used as means of value transfer, as store of value (also both independent of governments), and for speculation.

Are you conflating scarcity and hype?

jeremyp · Today, 03:19 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Ponzi schemes work until the investors find out that there is no money making scheme in it after all. Only then do those still invested in the scheme lose their investment.

Agreed. And what do you think happens when the Bitcoin investors realise there is no money making scheme in it after all?

Quote:

You are saying that Ponzi schemes fail in the end and bitcoin will fail in the end therefore bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. This is the equivalent of saying my dog is a cat because it has 4 legs.

No. I'm saying that Bitcoin is like a ponzi scheme because the early investors make money at the expense of the latter investors. There's no other mechanism for making money out of it.

Quote:

You have no basis for saying that bitcoin will fail in the end

Nothing lasts forever. Bitcoin will fail eventually, one way or another.

Quote:

The simple fact is that bitcoin is a tradable digital asset. Nothing more. Nothing less.

But why trade in it when it is good for nothing that can't be done better with fiat currencies or real commodities?

jeremyp · Today, 04:46 AM

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

But that's not true. In ponzi scheme the 'market cap' rises, rises .. and then it collapses. Bitcoin is normally traded, the price goes up, down, up again. Buying early and selling later does not guarantee profit. You have to buy low, and sell high. And for example now the price is dropping, so people who buy later are in better position to make profit.

You know the price of Bitcoin isn't magic? The only way to buy low is if somebody sells low and the only way to sell high is if somebody else buys high. Bitcoin is a zero sum game. No new value is generated by trading in Bitcoin. In fact, you could argue trading in Bitcoin destroys value because of the amount of energy required to validate transactions.

Quote:

What would be the price of gold if it suddenly become abundant, let's say like iron ?

It would be much lower. But one of the reasons the price of gold is pretty solid is because we know that's not going to happen.

Quote:

In other words, how big % of gold price is it's usefulness, and how big % of the price is just a hype ?

No idea, but the percentage that is its usefulness is not zero.

Quote:

We don't really need cryptocurrency. Just as we don't really need gold. Both are useful for some things .. but that is not what dictates their price. Both are primarily used as means of value transfer, as store of value (also both independent of governments), and for speculation.

So you keep saying, but I return to the question that you and psionl0 will not answer. What is cryptocurrency useful for that is both legal and not better served by other means like fiat currency?

Crossbow · Today, 06:42 AM

Just in case anyone is interested, ...

The RadioShack Company now has its own cryptocurrentcy that is worth almost one penny per coin.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RADI...ycsrp_catchall

1st July 2022, 12:29 AM	#2521
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 18,106	The tragedy of Crypto is that it correctly identifies all the problems with modern banking and finance, and then proceeds to repeat them all.
	__________________ "When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord doesn't work that way so I stole one and asked Him to forgive me." - Emo Philips

1st July 2022, 12:30 AM	#2522
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,089	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza The tragedy of Crypto is that it correctly identifies all the problems with modern banking and finance, and then proceeds to repeat them all. You're going to have to explain that one to me.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

3rd July 2022, 06:44 AM	#2525
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,089	Originally Posted by jeremyp The thing that makes Bitcoin similar to a Ponzi scheme is that the the early investors make money at the expense of the later investors and there is no other mechanism for increasing the value of Bitcoins. Ponzi schemes work until the investors find out that there is no money making scheme in it after all. Only then do those still invested in the scheme lose their investment. You are saying that Ponzi schemes fail in the end and bitcoin will fail in the end therefore bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. This is the equivalent of saying my dog is a cat because it has 4 legs. You have no basis for saying that bitcoin will fail in the end except for a fortune cookie. You can't assume that it is a ponzi scheme because that is what you are trying to prove. This is the logical fallacy of "begging the question". The simple fact is that bitcoin is a tradable digital asset. Nothing more. Nothing less.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

3rd July 2022, 08:46 PM	#2527
Dr. Keith Not a doctor. Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Texas Posts: 25,073	Originally Posted by Dr.Sid But that's not true. In ponzi scheme the 'market cap' rises, rises .. and then it collapses. Bitcoin is normally traded, the price goes up, down, up again. Buying early and selling later does not guarantee profit. You have to buy low, and sell high. And for example now the price is dropping, so people who buy later are in better position to make profit. What would be the price of gold if it suddenly become abundant, let's say like iron ? In other words, how big % of gold price is it's usefulness, and how big % of the price is just a hype ? We don't really need cryptocurrency. Just as we don't really need gold. Both are useful for some things .. but that is not what dictates their price. Both are primarily used as means of value transfer, as store of value (also both independent of governments), and for speculation. Are you conflating scarcity and hype?
	__________________ Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God. He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.

Today, 06:42 AM	#2530
Crossbow Seeking Honesty and Sanity Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Charleston, WV Posts: 14,124	Just in case anyone is interested, ... The RadioShack Company now has its own cryptocurrentcy that is worth almost one penny per coin. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RADI...ycsrp_catchall
	__________________ "But Presidents are not kings, and Plaintiff is not President." - Judge Chutkan On 15 FEB 2019 'BobTheCoward' said: "I constantly assert I am a fool." A man's best friend is his dogma.

1st July 2022, 07:29 PM	#2523
carlitos "más divertido" Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: USA! USA! Posts: 24,381	Originally Posted by Dr.Sid It's still 6 times more than March 2020. So nothing really out of ordinary. Bottoms on logarithmic graph line up quite well since forever. 20 is somewhat bellow that line though. So as always .. it's either good time to buy .. or the end Bitcoin has now underperformed the S&P 500 since the start of 2018. Maybe now is a good time to buy that instead. Or better yet a Russel 2000 index fund, since it has lower price:earnings ratios.

3rd July 2022, 05:28 AM	#2524
jeremyp Graduate Poster Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 1,673	Originally Posted by Dr.Sid Ponzi scheme usually works with investment and returns, which are taken from investments of new users. No other transaction is possible. Price is fixed. It's centralized. Usually does not have global reach. Usually is not electronic. Usually actually you buy something physical (or service) for you investment. It would be easier to sum what's similar with ponzi scheme: people invest money into it in believe they will make money, while it's clear that most of them won't. Also the fact the investors usually do not understand the mechanism well. And that's about it. Firstly, you are using the word "usually" quite a lot which means that many of the features you listed are not absolutely needed for something to be a Ponzi scheme. For example the "usually actually you buy something physical" feature is only applicable to a subset of Ponzi schemes called "multi-level marketing". The thing that makes Bitcoin similar to a Ponzi scheme is that the the early investors make money at the expense of the later investors and there is no other mechanism for increasing the value of Bitcoins. Quote: Is gold commodity or ponzi scheme then ? Gold is a commodity. Quote: Why do we need gold ? Gold is malleable, shiny, doesn't tarnish and it also conducts electricity very well. That makes it extremely sought after for jewellery and electronics. This is the problem with the crypto cultists. They think answering a question with a question makes them look smart. Quote: Why can't you accept it's simply something new ? Something which has features of commodities, also features of currencies, and also has features nothing else has. Why can't you answer the damn question? I've told you what we need gold for. Now you tell me what we need cryptocurrency for.

3rd July 2022, 04:55 PM	#2526
Dr.Sid Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic Posts: 3,771	Originally Posted by jeremyp The thing that makes Bitcoin similar to a Ponzi scheme is that the the early investors make money at the expense of the later investors and there is no other mechanism for increasing the value of Bitcoins. But that's not true. In ponzi scheme the 'market cap' rises, rises .. and then it collapses. Bitcoin is normally traded, the price goes up, down, up again. Buying early and selling later does not guarantee profit. You have to buy low, and sell high. And for example now the price is dropping, so people who buy later are in better position to make profit. Originally Posted by jeremyp Gold is a commodity. What would be the price of gold if it suddenly become abundant, let's say like iron ? In other words, how big % of gold price is it's usefulness, and how big % of the price is just a hype ? Originally Posted by jeremyp I've told you what we need gold for. Now you tell me what we need cryptocurrency for. We don't really need cryptocurrency. Just as we don't really need gold. Both are useful for some things .. but that is not what dictates their price. Both are primarily used as means of value transfer, as store of value (also both independent of governments), and for speculation.

Today, 03:19 AM	#2528
jeremyp Graduate Poster Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 1,673	Originally Posted by psionl0 Ponzi schemes work until the investors find out that there is no money making scheme in it after all. Only then do those still invested in the scheme lose their investment. Agreed. And what do you think happens when the Bitcoin investors realise there is no money making scheme in it after all? Quote: You are saying that Ponzi schemes fail in the end and bitcoin will fail in the end therefore bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. This is the equivalent of saying my dog is a cat because it has 4 legs. No. I'm saying that Bitcoin is like a ponzi scheme because the early investors make money at the expense of the latter investors. There's no other mechanism for making money out of it. Quote: You have no basis for saying that bitcoin will fail in the end Nothing lasts forever. Bitcoin will fail eventually, one way or another. Quote: The simple fact is that bitcoin is a tradable digital asset. Nothing more. Nothing less. But why trade in it when it is good for nothing that can't be done better with fiat currencies or real commodities?

Today, 04:46 AM	#2529
jeremyp Graduate Poster Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 1,673	Originally Posted by Dr.Sid But that's not true. In ponzi scheme the 'market cap' rises, rises .. and then it collapses. Bitcoin is normally traded, the price goes up, down, up again. Buying early and selling later does not guarantee profit. You have to buy low, and sell high. And for example now the price is dropping, so people who buy later are in better position to make profit. You know the price of Bitcoin isn't magic? The only way to buy low is if somebody sells low and the only way to sell high is if somebody else buys high. Bitcoin is a zero sum game. No new value is generated by trading in Bitcoin. In fact, you could argue trading in Bitcoin destroys value because of the amount of energy required to validate transactions. Quote: What would be the price of gold if it suddenly become abundant, let's say like iron ? It would be much lower. But one of the reasons the price of gold is pretty solid is because we know that's not going to happen. Quote: In other words, how big % of gold price is it's usefulness, and how big % of the price is just a hype ? No idea, but the percentage that is its usefulness is not zero. Quote: We don't really need cryptocurrency. Just as we don't really need gold. Both are useful for some things .. but that is not what dictates their price. Both are primarily used as means of value transfer, as store of value (also both independent of governments), and for speculation. So you keep saying, but I return to the question that you and psionl0 will not answer. What is cryptocurrency useful for that is both legal and not better served by other means like fiat currency?