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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 31st May 2022, 02:31 AM   #401
Klimax
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Meanwhile, Russia is continuing to grind away on the Eastern front.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Pound towns and cities to rubble and then advance into the wasteland. The reports from Ukrainian intelligence (and echoed by the UK and US) are that the Russians are sustaining heavy losses and suffering low morale. Both armies have been in the field for months now and it's understandable that they're getting worn pretty thin. Unfortunately, there's no indication that the Russians are going to crack any time soon. They're continuing to grind away in the East and they're holding their positions around Kharkiv and in the South.
Mej. That Kharkiv is not that safe anymore. And if after massive artillery barrage one still suffers large causalities, that we are talking about redefinition of Pyrrhic victory. Patience. Those hundreds of armored vehicle take a while to destroy...
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Old 31st May 2022, 04:54 AM   #402
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Putin went to see his most trusted advisor, who happened to be his personal doctor. The doctor said, "I have good news and bad news. Which do you want first?"

Putin said, "I am a strong Russian man. I'll take the bad news."

The doctor said, "the war is going badly. It will take at least another year to defeat the Ukrainians."

Putin said, "thanks, I know it's hard to be honest with a powerful man like me. Now, what's the good news?"

The doctor said, "your cancer is back and you have only six months to live."
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Old 31st May 2022, 07:24 AM   #403
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
The local bully took over your neighbours garage in 2014. Declared it was his now and defied anyone to do anything about it. Now he wants their spare bedroom too, and is throwing your neighbour's property into the yard.

There are no police in this scenario. The community should just let him do it, right? I mean he'll probably leave everyone else alone.
I don't view the thinking as betting he will leave others alone. Just that it isn't the responsibility to stop him at the neighbor.

A corollary to the notion that one of a government's role is national defense is that government is responsible for doing it...with no expectation of outside help.
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Old 31st May 2022, 07:39 AM   #404
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Pro-Russian social media accounts are in full overdrive crowing about the massive defeat of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region. They've got a bunch of very graphic video and pics of dead Ukrainian soldiers to back it up.

Dead soldiers wearing cold weather gear, with trees in the images not leafed out yet.

They are using footage that is at least a month old as evidence of what happened in the past 48 hours. Hopefully that's a sign that the offensive is actually going pretty well.

Last edited by crescent; 31st May 2022 at 08:00 AM.
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Old 31st May 2022, 07:58 AM   #405
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I presume you meant cold weather gear.
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Old 31st May 2022, 08:01 AM   #406
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
I presume you meant cold weather gear.
You presume correctly. Fixed the word substitution error.

Thanks.
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Old 31st May 2022, 08:35 AM   #407
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I don't view the thinking as betting he will leave others alone. Just that it isn't the responsibility to stop him at the neighbor.

A corollary to the notion that one of a government's role is national defense is that government is responsible for doing it...with no expectation of outside help.
I don't think I agree with that at all. Strong alliances are vital for national defense. Extended into stronger cultural and economic ties, those same alliances build some international stability as well. NATO (and as a precursor, the Marshall Plan) is a pretty clear example. The major nations of Western Europe used to have destructive wars regularly. Since then they've been at peace with each other more than 75 years.
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Old 31st May 2022, 08:41 AM   #408
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
What is the obsession with A-10s?
Gun goes BRRRR!
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Old 31st May 2022, 09:03 AM   #409
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
I don't think I agree with that at all. Strong alliances are vital for national defense. Extended into stronger cultural and economic ties, those same alliances build some international stability as well. NATO (and as a precursor, the Marshall Plan) is a pretty clear example. The major nations of Western Europe used to have destructive wars regularly. Since then they've been at peace with each other more than 75 years.
An alliance is what I would consider taking responsibility for national defense.

Ukraine appears to have a lack of actionable alliances. Rookie mistake
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Old 31st May 2022, 10:14 AM   #410
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Here is an endgame.

The United States says they will be coming over to secure the areas taken by Russians,including the 2014 gains. or... Putin agrees to pull back to pre 2022 borders and simply claims he has taken care of the Nazis in Donbas and can now leave.
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Old 31st May 2022, 10:51 AM   #411
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
An alliance is what I would consider taking responsibility for national defense.



Ukraine appears to have a lack of actionable alliances. Rookie mistake
So you blame Ukraine for failing to join NATO already. How were they going to do that? How would Russia have reacted if they tried?
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Old 31st May 2022, 10:52 AM   #412
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
So you blame Ukraine for failing to join NATO already. How were they going to do that? How would Russia have reacted if they tried?
I don't blame them.
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Old 31st May 2022, 10:53 AM   #413
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
A corollary to the notion that one of a government's role is national defense is that government is responsible for doing it...with no expectation of outside help.
Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
An alliance is what I would consider taking responsibility for national defense.
I'm really not interested in getting into a semantics debate, but I will point out that I think most people consider alliances "outside help". If you don't, then your phrasing is likely the source of confusion here.

Quote:
Ukraine appears to have a lack of actionable alliances. Rookie mistake
They didn't really have any good options at the time.
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Old 31st May 2022, 10:58 AM   #414
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I'm really not interested in getting into a semantics debate, but I will point out that I think most people consider alliances "outside help". If you don't, then your phrasing is likely the source of confusion here.



They didn't really have any good options at the time.
I wouldn't consider an alliance help. The same way I wouldn't think of insurance as getting help from the insurance company.
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Old 31st May 2022, 11:16 AM   #415
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I wouldn't consider an alliance help.
Yeah, I figured that out. But most people do, and you shouldn't be surprised that you expressed yourself in a way which caused confusion.
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Old 31st May 2022, 12:30 PM   #416
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I don't blame them.
Okay. You don't blame them, you merely consider they made a "rookie mistake".

What do you think they should have done differently, to avoid this rookie mistake?
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Old 31st May 2022, 12:47 PM   #417
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Meanwhile, back on topic

11 minute video by "Military History Visualized" on whether the footage of T-62's being reportedly-sent to Ukraine was likely to be fake or real, and if real, where they could be used

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE


TLDW - probably real, the Russian railways said they shipped tanks on the days reported, the similar markings on the tanks to earlier times are just generic transport markings, and some pro-Russian Telegram channels also mentioned them
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Old 31st May 2022, 01:53 PM   #418
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From that video I posted earlier of a lecture in Finnish with English subtitles by a retired Finnish intelligence colonel on why and how Russia does things differently to the West. With a lot of focus on so-called "strategic culture"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw&t=1600s

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Lenin once said 'try it with a bayonet, if it's soft, push, if it's hard, leave'
Seems entirely accurate for discussing how Russia has reacted to ramping up support for Ukraine and indeed the other provocations by Russia.
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Old 31st May 2022, 02:49 PM   #419
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Multiple news outlets are reporting that the Biden Administration will in fact send the truck-mounted version of the MLRS to Ukraine, but not the longest-range rockets. I really hope it's true.
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Old 31st May 2022, 03:54 PM   #420
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Multiple news outlets are reporting that the Biden Administration will in fact send the truck-mounted version of the MLRS to Ukraine, but not the longest-range rockets. I really hope it's true.
Best possible option. At the very least the HIMARS version should be easier to maintain.
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Old 31st May 2022, 04:41 PM   #421
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The fact they spend time attacking non NATO countries means they will eventually attack a NATO country?
They are trying to control strategically routes into Russia that could be fortified and defended, or used to launch attacks on Western Europe, in the case of a larger conflict. Most of the remaining positions they want are inside NATO countries like Poland, the Balkins and now Finland.
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Old 31st May 2022, 04:49 PM   #422
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
I don't think that Russia, which has already lost many soldiers in this war that they started, deserves "success in Ukraine". The peace plan I proposed was:
I don't think how many of it's soldier die plays any role in Russia's definition for success.

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Point (3) makes it clear that Russia should withdraw from Ukraine proper. Obviously, forcing Russian troops to withdraw is not an invitation to invade other countries, this is not the signal which is being sent.
Putin has made it clear that in Russia's view there is no "Ukraine proper" it's all just Russia and anyone who disagrees needs to be sent to concentration camps for "re-education".

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post

(https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bid...s-reach-russia).

That's the problem: Zelensky doesn't want to compromise at all. He sees his country being destroyed more every day, but he doesn't seem to care because he wants to play his little Churchill.
Why would he compromise when Russia has already shown compete disregard for every previous agreement? Russia would never keep this one either.


Originally Posted by Michel H View Post

What is important here is certainly not to make Putin (very) happy: it is to try to make sure that people in Crimea and Donbass have decent lives at peace,
The Russian ethnic cleansing you are supporting won't make life for any current residents of those regions decent of peaceful by any stretch. Short yes, peaceful no.
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Old 31st May 2022, 05:39 PM   #423
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Pro-Russian social media accounts are in full overdrive crowing about the massive defeat of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region. They've got a bunch of very graphic video and pics of dead Ukrainian soldiers to back it up.

Dead soldiers wearing cold weather gear, with trees in the images not leafed out yet.

They are using footage that is at least a month old as evidence of what happened in the past 48 hours. Hopefully that's a sign that the offensive is actually going pretty well.
I can't see Ukraine being able to do offensives. You need a significant numerical superiority and fresh troops, which they just don't have.

They are hoping to find the weak spots in the Russian lines and exploit them. Anything else is suicidal.
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Old 31st May 2022, 06:04 PM   #424
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Gun goes BRRRR!
Well, that and when you call for mother CAS the aircraft has loiter time and is slow enough to eyeball ground targets. Though, it's reputation and lethality were proven in very different air defense environments. I suspect an A-10 (or any aircraft in a CAS role would not survive long in Ukrainian skies without vastly more efficient SEAD support than is currently available.
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Old 31st May 2022, 06:22 PM   #425
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A10 is fine when you have sure superiority.
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Old 31st May 2022, 06:28 PM   #426
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
They are trying to control strategically routes into Russia that could be fortified and defended, or used to launch attacks on Western Europe, in the case of a larger conflict. Most of the remaining positions they want are inside NATO countries like Poland, the Balkins and now Finland.
Good for them
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Old 31st May 2022, 08:04 PM   #427
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I can't see Ukraine being able to do offensives. You need a significant numerical superiority and fresh troops, which they just don't have.

They will eventually have that superiority, as Russia continues to be weakened and more and more Western equipment arrives. Also, it is possible to conduct a successful offensive against a numerically superior opponent, if that opponent is demoralized and low on supplies. Which is likely to be the case for the Russians going forward.

Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
They are hoping to find the weak spots in the Russian lines and exploit them. Anything else is suicidal.

According to ISW's situation report for today, that's exactly what Ukraine's been doing, because the Russians have weakened their forces everywhere else in order to throw as many troops as possible at the Donbas:
Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue.
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Old 31st May 2022, 08:28 PM   #428
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Best possible option. At the very least the HIMARS version should be easier to maintain.

Additionally, because it's truck mounted, it should be easier for the Ukrainian soldiers to learn to drive it. And because it only carries half as many rockets as the tracked version, the Russians would have to destroy two HIMARS in order to have the same effect as destroying one MLRS.
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Old 31st May 2022, 09:03 PM   #429
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I haven't seen this mentioned in news reports yet, but it's possible that Ukraine could get some of the tracked MLRS, as some potential donor countries, such as the UK, don't currently use HIMARS.
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Old 31st May 2022, 09:06 PM   #430
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I can't see Ukraine being able to do offensives. You need a significant numerical superiority and fresh troops, which they just don't have.

They are hoping to find the weak spots in the Russian lines and exploit them. Anything else is suicidal.
In short, a *local* numerical superiority.

In both Kharkiv and Kherson, they've had that while they've been on the offensive. Izyum and the eastern front, not so much, but half the BTGs that were apparently in Izyum have been moved out and the counterattacks on that front seem to be gradually retaking ground.
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Old 31st May 2022, 11:05 PM   #431
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Dmitri Kisselev, often called "Putin's chief propagandist" by "Western" pre$$titutes, used his weekly news overview on prime time Sunday TV to make a comment that the analyst who transcribed and translated it to German interprets as threat to sink one of Yankistans precious slowly moving huge targets, called aircraft carrier, if Yankistan delivers long-range missiles to the Ukraine. I've auto-translated it for you with DeepL from the German translation:

Originally Posted by Dmitri Kisselev
As a reminder, it is impossible to intercept the Zirkon

The American newspaper New York Times, citing sources in President Biden's administration, reported on U.S. plans to supply Ukraine with long-range, multipurpose missiles. These satellite-guided mobile missile launchers are designed to shoot farther than any currently deployed by Ukraine. "They can fly more than 40 miles, far exceeding the range of all artillery pieces Ukraine currently deploys," the newspaper writes. (Translator's note: CNN even reported that the launchers were equipped with missiles with a range of 300 kilometers.)

This is a very reckless move. Kiev has long asked America for weapons that can fire farther into Russian territory and hit more accurately than is currently the case. The delivery of such weapons will definitely not bring peace to Ukraine, but only new victims. And the Americans are also putting themselves in an increasingly ambiguous position by showing themselves more and more as a party to the conflict. And isn't that what Putin already warned against on February 24?

"Now a few important, very important, words to those who might be tempted to interfere in what is happening from the outside. Whoever tries to interfere with us, let alone pose a threat to our country, to our people, must know that Russia's response will be immediate and will entail consequences that you have never experienced in your history. We are prepared for any development of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard," said the Russian head of state.

Sergei Lavrov warned the West on Thursday not to provide Kiev with weapons that can reach Russian territory. Because it should be clear that the madmen in Kiev are only dreaming of extending the fighting beyond Ukraine, according to the motto "after us, the deluge"

"The West has called for defeating Russia on the battlefield, and in order to achieve that, the war must continue and the Ukrainian nationalists and regime must be supplied with weapons that can also reach the Russian Federation. It is precisely such weapons that Selensky is publicly calling for. We have warned the West in the strongest terms that with the hands, bodies, and brains of Ukrainian neo-Nazis, it is in effect already fighting a proxy war with the Russian Federation, but this will be the most serious step toward an unacceptable escalation. I hope that the reasonable minds in the West - of which there are only a few left - will understand this," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

It is worth listening to Russia's point of view. Lest anyone doubt Russia's capabilities: We continue to work on improving our nuclear triad. For example, on Saturday the Admiral Gorshkov frigate launched a Zirkon hypersonic cruise missile at a sea target from the Barents Sea. The target in the White Sea, a thousand kilometers away, was successfully destroyed. The Zirkon is not called the "aircraft carrier killer" by accident. It is the world's first sea-based hypersonic missile capable of maneuvering in the dense layers of the atmosphere. Its top speed is Mach 9 and its range is about 1,000 kilometers. Intercepting the Zirkon is impossible.

This show is of course watched by "Western" "analysts" and Lavrov's warning "in the strongest terms" will have reached the decision makers, and Biden, in Washington. Just as a little explanation for what is going on for people who still swallow Kagan news.
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Old 31st May 2022, 11:20 PM   #432
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Yes Russia has said multiple times that virtually any pushback is tantamount to a declaration of war. Including delivery of weapons systems to Ukraine.

But once they are delivered, Russia keeps quiet about them being effective.

It's almost as though it's bluster
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Old 31st May 2022, 11:29 PM   #433
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to quote jimbob quoting a Finn quoiting Lenin:

" 'try it with a bayonet, if it's soft, push, if it's hard, leave' "

Russia will only stop if it gets massive pushback - Russian threats are just tests of the Western resolve, not actual warnings of future actions.
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Old 1st June 2022, 02:27 AM   #434
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Dmitri Kisselev, often called "Putin's chief propagandist" by "Western" pre$$titutes, used his weekly news overview on prime time Sunday TV to make a comment that the analyst who transcribed and translated it to German interprets as threat to sink one of Yankistans precious slowly moving huge targets, called aircraft carrier, if Yankistan delivers long-range missiles to the Ukraine. I've auto-translated it for you with DeepL from the German translation:




This show is of course watched by "Western" "analysts" and Lavrov's warning "in the strongest terms" will have reached the decision makers, and Biden, in Washington. Just as a little explanation for what is going on for people who still swallow Kagan news.
You could throw a stone across the border: anything that can be used as a weapon can be used to strike Russia from Ukraine. This is just peevish whining from bullies who aren't used to being stood up to. Oh, and why is it unfair for the Ukrainians to attack targets inside Russia? Is it only the Russians who are allowed to attack targets in another country?

That hypersonic missile, by the way, has been tried out a couple of times in Ukraine, and performed so badly that the Russians had to lie about it. No-one is scared by empty threats of invincible superweapons, least of all the Ukrainians.

I am still waiting for your detailed and factual rebuttal of any of the reports used by ISW. Do you have anything beyond ad hominems?
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Old 1st June 2022, 03:28 AM   #435
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I can't see Ukraine being able to do offensives. You need a significant numerical superiority and fresh troops, which they just don't have.

They are hoping to find the weak spots in the Russian lines and exploit them. Anything else is suicidal.
Which is how an offensive works.
All you need is local superiority.

As for numbers.
Look at Operation Compass https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Compass

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Old 1st June 2022, 03:35 AM   #436
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Dmitri Kisselev, often called "Putin's chief propagandist" by "Western" pre$$titutes, used his weekly news overview on prime time Sunday TV to make a comment that the analyst who transcribed and translated it to German interprets as threat to sink one of Yankistans precious slowly moving huge targets, called aircraft carrier, if Yankistan delivers long-range missiles to the Ukraine. I've auto-translated it for you with DeepL from the German translation:




This show is of course watched by "Western" "analysts" and Lavrov's warning "in the strongest terms" will have reached the decision makers, and Biden, in Washington. Just as a little explanation for what is going on for people who still swallow Kagan news.
I think any such foolish actions on the Russians part would result in the near instantaneous elimination of all Russian offencive weapons and personal before the next sunrise. Sabre rattling of the highest caliber, and nothing more.
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Old 1st June 2022, 08:35 AM   #437
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Dmitri Kisselev, often called "Putin's chief propagandist" by "Western" pre$$titutes, used his weekly news overview on prime time Sunday TV to make a comment that the analyst who transcribed and translated it to German interprets as threat to sink one of Yankistans precious slowly moving huge targets, called aircraft carrier, if Yankistan delivers long-range missiles to the Ukraine. I've auto-translated it for you with DeepL from the German translation:


.

LOL what a moron. If you start a war don't whine when you get shot at.

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Yankistans precious slowly moving huge targets, called aircraft carrier, if Yankistan delivers long-range missiles to the Ukraine. I've auto-translated it for you with DeepL from the German translation:


.
Again what a moron. Russia doesn't have the capability to sink a US aircraft carrier. Russia's technological inferiority and overall incompetence make this an impossible task for them. Their fantasies about a lucky missile strike are just that, fantasies.

From what we've seen of Russia's air force a single carrier cold shot down every aircraft Russia has and take few if any losses in the process. The gap in technology, capability and quality is just too large.
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Old 1st June 2022, 10:05 AM   #438
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
...
The propaganda you posted was designed for a Russian audience and will just get laughs here. Putin's smart move would be to accept what a screw up his invasion of Ukraine has been, and withdraw his troops back to Russia.
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Old 1st June 2022, 10:16 AM   #439
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
LOL what a moron. If you start a war don't whine when you get shot at.



Again what a moron. Russia doesn't have the capability to sink a US aircraft carrier. Russia's technological inferiority and overall incompetence make this an impossible task for them. Their fantasies about a lucky missile strike are just that, fantasies.

From what we've seen of Russia's air force a single carrier cold shot down every aircraft Russia has and take few if any losses in the process. The gap in technology, capability and quality is just too large.
Well they do have the seaborne wonder weapons, two of which will take out the whole Eastern seaboard and another two the Western with a mega tsunami.
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Old 1st June 2022, 10:22 AM   #440
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Again what a moron. Russia doesn't have the capability to sink a US aircraft carrier. Russia's technological inferiority and overall incompetence make this an impossible task for them. Their fantasies about a lucky missile strike are just that, fantasies.

From what we've seen of Russia's air force a single carrier cold shot down every aircraft Russia has and take few if any losses in the process. The gap in technology, capability and quality is just too large.
I'm not quite so dismissive of the threat. Publicly available information about the Zircon missile is hard to come by, but it's certainly got a decent range, possibly 700+ km. It can also be submarine launched, and it's very high speed. I don't think our carrier missile defense systems have really been tested out against a threat like this. And the Navy is unlikely to reveal much in either direction. Downplaying the threat is useful to project confidence and minimize enemy leverage, but exaggerating it is useful to scare up more funding from Congress, so I don't totally trust what has been said about it even from western sources either. And the Zircon is known to be launchable from submarines, so countering the Russian air force doesn't eliminate the threat.

tl;dr: based on publicly available information, it's not clear how much of a threat the Zircon poses to US carriers, but I wouldn't dismiss it outright, nor would I assume that it counters the threat of US carriers to our enemies either.
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