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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 28th June 2022, 06:08 AM   #1241
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post

50,000 shells a day isn't sustainable indefinitely unless the entire Russian economy is on a war footing but with huge stores of ammunition and adequate logistical support it may, unfortunately be sustainable for long enough to lay waste to large parts of the Ukraine.
As discussed earlier in this thread after ~2000 shells an artillery piece looses accuracy and is no longer capable of the precise targeting needed to hit military targets. How effective can all those shells be if they are fired from worn out guns that can no longer hit what they are shooting at? If in 3 months Ukrainian artillery can hit Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery pieces but Russian artillery can't do the same how well will things go for Russia considering how heavily they are relying on artillery?
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Old 28th June 2022, 06:11 AM   #1242
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
As discussed earlier in this thread after ~2000 shells an artillery piece looses accuracy and is no longer capable of the precise targeting needed to hit military targets. How effective can all those shells be if they are fired from worn out guns that can no longer hit what they are shooting at? If in 3 months Ukrainian artillery can hit Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery pieces but Russian artillery can't do the same how well will things go for Russia considering how heavily they are relying on artillery?
If you keep using a worn out gun it will become dangerous to the user, the obturation will wear out on guns using bagged charges and the chamber throat will also erode giving a high risk of a barrel rupturing.
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Old 28th June 2022, 06:20 AM   #1243
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
You said they were being used for 'minor tactical gains'
Actually it was the MOD who said that.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
You seriously think they have enough artillery and ammunition to keep it up for years?
I don't know. They've kept it up for several months with no sign of relenting.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Why do they need 3x or 5x Russia's forces?
My understanding was that the general wisdom is that an attacking force needs to be multiple times stronger than a dug-in defending force, especially in urban warfare, and that the multiplier was in the 3-5 range.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
What makes you think that Russia will be able to hold the land they are taking when their remaining few effective units are exhausted?
They've stripped Kharkiv, Kherson and the Southern corridor to provide forces for the Donbas offensive and Ukraine are having great difficulties in taking land in those areas - indeed the Russians are slowly creeping back towards Kharkiv.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
But what good is it doing them militarily?
What advantage does flogging themselves to death for such a small part of eastern Ukraine bring hem?
It helps them achieve some of what appear to be their war aims:
  • To establish a land corridor between Russia and its Ukrainian territories (including Crimea)
  • To wreck the Ukraine economy
  • To stop Ukraine exploiting its petrochemical reserves
  • To maintain Putin's popularity in Russia

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
But at what cost is it? You say they are willing to pay 'the price' but such expenditure for such little gain will see them go bust.
It may, it may not, time will tell.

In the first month of the war, various western commentators were reporting that Russian losses were such that 20, 30, 40 BTGs had been destroyed or at least rendered ineffective. That now seems not to be the case. Some combination of losses being lower than first estimates, Russia being able to reinforce and resupply and Russian units still being effective despite high loss levels means that those BTGs are still in the field.
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Old 28th June 2022, 06:31 AM   #1244
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Quote:

My understanding was that the general wisdom is that an attacking force needs to be multiple times stronger than a dug-in defending force, especially in urban warfare, and that the multiplier was in the 3-5 range.
Not if the defenders are useless. Look at the ground force force ratio in the Falklands or even Operation Compass in WW2 when the British defeated the defending Italians on the Egyptian border and drove them back to Tripolitania. 5 to 1 in Italian favour https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Compass

Quote:
They've stripped Kharkiv, Kherson and the Southern corridor to provide forces for the Donbas offensive and Ukraine are having great difficulties in taking land in those areas - indeed the Russians are slowly creeping back towards Kharkiv.
How do you know they are having 'great difficulty'? Are they trying to take a lot of land?

Quote:
In the first month of the war, various western commentators were reporting that Russian losses were such that 20, 30, 40 BTGs had been destroyed or at least rendered ineffective. That now seems not to be the case. Some combination of losses being lower than first estimates, Russia being able to reinforce and resupply and Russian units still being effective despite high loss levels means that those BTGs are still in the field.
Why does it not appear to be the case? If they still have those forces where are they?
We know they are stripping units and combining them to try and keep an advance going. How long do you think they can keep doing that and not leave the army a hollow shell?
What will happen when they are forced on to the defensive and don't have the units left to form a front or provide any depth?

How effective are those units when they can barely move forward even with their barrage?
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Old 28th June 2022, 06:34 AM   #1245
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
As discussed earlier in this thread after ~2000 shells an artillery piece looses accuracy and is no longer capable of the precise targeting needed to hit military targets. How effective can all those shells be if they are fired from worn out guns that can no longer hit what they are shooting at?
I thought the number mentioned was ~7000 which is consistent with this Quora answer.

https://www.quora.com/How-many-round...ffect-accuracy

In any case, Russia don't really seem to care about pinpoint accuracy and hitting military targets, at least not with their artillery. They seem to be more interested in simply terrifying civilians and reducing Ukrainian towns to rubble.

Then again, if they have vast reserves of artillery, then wearing it out is less of an issue

Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
If in 3 months Ukrainian artillery can hit Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery pieces but Russian artillery can't do the same how well will things go for Russia considering how heavily they are relying on artillery?
They are relying on their artillery to gain ground - something that doesn't necessarily require a great deal of accuracy - AIUI they have other options for "precision" strikes, not least air power which reportedly they're using a lot of in Donbas.


edited to add......

"All" Russia have to do is to keep things going until late autumn. Then they really do have the whip-hand over both Western Europe and especially Ukriane. If they cut off gas supplies then we could be facing a massive humanitarian crisis across Europe and especially in Ukraine.

Last edited by The Don; 28th June 2022 at 06:51 AM.
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Old 28th June 2022, 06:46 AM   #1246
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Not if the defenders are useless. Look at the ground force force ratio in the Falklands or even Operation Compass in WW2 when the British defeated the defending Italians on the Egyptian border and drove them back to Tripolitania. 5 to 1 in Italian favour https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Compass
Any evidence that the Russians are useless in defence ?

The Russians absolutely showed they were completely useless at a war of movement in the first week of the war but as far as I can see, Ukrainian counterattacks in the South have had very limited success and the Russians are gaining ground near Kharkiv.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
How do you know they are having 'great difficulty'? Are they trying to take a lot of land?
Well they've been trying to counter-attack along a long front around Kherson for a month now. Initially they had success but they've now ground to a halt as they encounter dug-in Russian forces .

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Why does it not appear to be the case? If they still have those forces where are they?
We know they are stripping units and combining them to try and keep an advance going. How long do you think they can keep doing that and not leave the army a hollow shell?
What will happen when they are forced on to the defensive and don't have the units left to form a front or provide any depth?
I don't know but one consistent theme seems to be that the experts quoted in the BBC seem to underestimate Russia's ability to continue to regroup, resupply and reinforce to keep units in the field.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
How effective are those units when they can barely move forward even with their barrage?
Effective enough - they're still taking ground - very slowly.
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Old 28th June 2022, 07:08 AM   #1247
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
No, you misread me completely. I never claimed that Russia is on a path to winning. I am saying that currently Ukraine is losing - and I even added the explicit caveat "even if Russia not winning".
That depends on what you count as victory for Ukraine. If winning means maintaining their sovereignty, they are winning. If if means regaining their lost territory, they are not (but still might in the future). If it means preventing economic loss and casualties, they are losing. You have to define the goal first. I'm not convinced that they see the conflict the same way you do.

Quote:
Like?
Iraq. Sanctions crippled their military capacity.

Quote:
Looming. Uhu. You are arguing with prophecies?
I don't think you've actually been paying attention to what's going on in China. No prophecy is required to recognize the debt bomb that they're sitting on, and which has already claimed the first of what will inevitably be many more casualties. No prophecy is required to recognize the demographic catastrophy which is already unfolding. It is already set in stone how many working-age Chinese there will be in 2040. Nothing China does now can possibly change that.
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Old 28th June 2022, 08:04 AM   #1248
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
If you keep using a worn out gun it will become dangerous to the user, the obturation will wear out on guns using bagged charges and the chamber throat will also erode giving a high risk of a barrel rupturing.
I doubt Russian commanders worry much about that and the troops themselves may not even understand the risk. I can't imagine Russia is sending in the 750 new guns per month required to fire the 50 000 shells a day The Don is quoting, so the real question become how effective are these worn out guns going to be against military targets.
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Old 28th June 2022, 08:15 AM   #1249
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post

In any case, Russia don't really seem to care about pinpoint accuracy and hitting military targets, at least not with their artillery. They seem to be more interested in simply terrifying civilians and reducing Ukrainian towns to rubble.
Destroying towns is one thing, but if they can't hit military targets artillery becomes useless for holding ground. If Ukrainian artillery can destroy Russian tanks and troop carriers but the Russian's can't hit the Ukrainian equivalents who really has the advantage in artillery? This is predicated on Ukraine getting NATO artillery in significant numbers.
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Old 28th June 2022, 08:24 AM   #1250
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
This is predicated on Ukraine getting NATO artillery in significant numbers.
They definitely need significant numbers, hopefully along with more Excalibur shells as well.
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Old 28th June 2022, 12:59 PM   #1251
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Zelensky has hopes it will all be over by the end of the year.
I think Russia knows it too.
...
Care for a bet?
(That would need a few specifications - such as: what does "all be over" mean?)
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Old 28th June 2022, 01:08 PM   #1252
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
...
I'm done with people who keep pitching the same News as if it were new Bad News. Honestly, I think it lowkey counts as good news, in the sense that a stalemate in the east favors Ukraine in the long term, and protects all of Ukraine to the west of that front from the full horror of war and the depredations of Russian occupiers.
And my view has been been all along that it is unwise to call the News Good News, not even lowkey, while Ukraine is outgunned, suffering widespread destruction and (slow as they may be) enemy advances.

If some here are praising Ukraine for all their winning, I think it is helpful to behold gloomier views.

This thing will not be all over by the end of the year, barring some fundamental change, and that is Terrible News for Ukraine, even if long term they are the more likely winners.
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Old 28th June 2022, 01:09 PM   #1253
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Care for a bet?
(That would need a few specifications - such as: what does "all be over" mean?)
Avatar bet? Why not.

For past few days I was kicking around idea for Donbas bet.
Russian control over Donbas (both oblasts)
Time limit: Three months

For invasion itself:
Russians removed from all of Urkaine.
Time limit: 31.12.2022
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Old 28th June 2022, 01:10 PM   #1254
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
As discussed earlier in this thread after ~2000 shells an artillery piece looses accuracy and is no longer capable of the precise targeting needed to hit military targets. How effective can all those shells be if they are fired from worn out guns that can no longer hit what they are shooting at? If in 3 months Ukrainian artillery can hit Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery pieces but Russian artillery can't do the same how well will things go for Russia considering how heavily they are relying on artillery?
To temper this a bit - Artillery barrels are not high tech, at last check. Russia should be able to mass produce replacements in plenty of bulk. Whether the Russians are doing appropriate maintenance and can switch out the barrels as needed is an issue, of course, but, in general, I wouldn't pin too much hope on that kind of failure.

In other artillery news, with all the targeting of munitions and supply lines going on, I've seen a prediction that Russia may at least temporarily lose much of its ability to maintain some of its artillery bombardments within a week or so, which should grind the associated offenses to a halt. I'm not holding my breath, but it would be nice if true.

Elsewhere -

Quote:
Turkey satisfied with Sweden, Finland response in NATO talks.

Turkey is likely to give the two countries the green light to join NATO.
Too soon to celebrate, but a good sign.
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Old 28th June 2022, 01:30 PM   #1255
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
That depends on what you count as victory for Ukraine. If winning means maintaining their sovereignty, they are winning. If if means regaining their lost territory, they are not (but still might in the future). If it means preventing economic loss and casualties, they are losing. You have to define the goal first.
A very easy metric: How much (area, people, control, assets) do you have today, compared to yesterday?
By and large, this metric sees Ukraine losing, probably every day.

Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I'm not convinced that they see the conflict the same way you do.
D'uh!

Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Iraq. Sanctions crippled their military capacity.
Requires evidence they had, or would have achieved, that alleged military capacity in the first place, without sanctions.

Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I don't think you've actually been paying attention to what's going on in China. No prophecy is required to recognize the debt bomb that they're sitting on, and which has already claimed the first of what will inevitably be many more casualties. No prophecy is required to recognize the demographic catastrophy which is already unfolding. It is already set in stone how many working-age Chinese there will be in 2040. Nothing China does now can possibly change that.
Such developments don't usually go off as bombs. They are long-term, allowing societies to adapt, as societies always have done.
It's a bit like the Club of Rome prediction that we will run out of oil by [some date long before today], and that economies would come crashing down. Reality is, the word adapted to the levels of oil production vs use in several ways, such that we are perhaps still as far from the collapse of the oil economy as we were in the late 1960s.
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Old 28th June 2022, 01:34 PM   #1256
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To temper this a bit - Artillery barrels are not high tech, at last check. Russia should be able to mass produce replacements in plenty of bulk. Whether the Russians are doing appropriate maintenance and can switch out the barrels as needed is an issue, of course, but, in general, I wouldn't pin too much hope on that kind of failure.
To temper this a bit: Artillery barrels do require a certain quality of materials, a certain precision of machining, and a certain diligence of quality control.
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Old 28th June 2022, 01:36 PM   #1257
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Avatar bet? Why not.

For past few days I was kicking around idea for Donbas bet.
Russian control over Donbas (both oblasts)
Time limit: Three months
Do you mean we revisit the map of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in three months time, on 2022/09/22, say 1200 UT, and ... then what? You bet Russia will not control the total area of both oblasts?
I'd not bet against that - for I think there will still be somewhat of a stalemate then, with the line of contact not very much different from today, and that might mean Ukraine has gained a few km2 somewhere inside Donbass, while Russia gained a few km2 more outside Donbass.

Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
For invasion itself:
Russians removed from all of Urkaine.
Time limit: 31.12.2022
Really? Including Crimea?
I'm game!
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Old 28th June 2022, 01:49 PM   #1258
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
To temper this a bit: Artillery barrels do require a certain quality of materials, a certain precision of machining, and a certain diligence of quality control.
And given the Russian reliance on artillery, it would seem likely that they would have some barrels stockpiled already. It would seem a basic logistical standard of keeping x number of barrels stockpiled for every y number of shells stockpiled above a certain number. A paired requirement.

In this war the word "artillery" is being used by many to refer both to gun/cannon/howitzer type stuff but also to rocket artillery (LMRS) which would not have issues with barrels wearing out.

Ukr may be pulling out of Lysychansk today. The Russians are making that claim, but some pro-Ukr sources are making the same claim. They're all just recycling the same footage.

It's a defensible position in many ways, but is within range of Russian artillery from three different directions. If the longer range western artillery wants to hit the Russian artillery to the east of the town, they would need to bring that Ukr artillery within range of the Russian guns north and south of the town. If Ukraine pulls out of the town, they might be able to get a straight enough front line to be able to make fuller use of the longer ranged western guns.
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Old 28th June 2022, 01:55 PM   #1259
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
And given the Russian reliance on artillery, it would seem likely that they would have some barrels stockpiled already. It would seem a basic logistical standard of keeping x number of barrels stockpiled for every y number of shells stockpiled above a certain number. A paired requirement.
If there's one thing we've learned from this war, it's that Russia hasn't been firing on all cylinders, when it comes to stockpiles and logistics, for several years now. You gotta wonder how many of those tubes really were stockpiled to begin with, and how many of the ones that were got sold for scrap on the black market, sometime between 1992 and today.
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Old 28th June 2022, 02:18 PM   #1260
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Such developments don't usually go off as bombs.
Debt crises can. And while the demographic crisis is a slow moving glacier, it has immediate relevance right now. Bleak long-term prospects increase the cost of raising funds through debt, which on top of an already precarious debt bomb that could explode at any moment means that China cannot borrow in order to bail out Russia.

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They are long-term, allowing societies to adapt, as societies always have done.
I'm not saying China can't adapt. I'm saying that they can't bail out Russia. The resources that they will need to expend in order to adapt preclude that as a practical matter.
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Old 28th June 2022, 02:26 PM   #1261
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
According to the latest UK MOD daily intelligence briefing, the Russian military is using key weapons to achieve minor tactical gains and becoming increasingly hollowed out.



https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...56772695531521

The trouble is that they still seem to have plenty of such missiles to waste on terrorising the Ukrainian people and there seems to be no let-up in the artillery barrage on the Eastern front.

50,000 shells a day isn't sustainable indefinitely unless the entire Russian economy is on a war footing but with huge stores of ammunition and adequate logistical support it may, unfortunately be sustainable for long enough to lay waste to large parts of the Ukraine.

I don't know how many artillery pieces, tanks and other armoured vehicles the Russians have in theatre, hundreds ? thousands ? tens of thousands ? but even with perfect intelligence, a very low failure rate in NATO supplied ordnance and a very high hit rate, that's going to take a lot to significantly degrade.

Russia has a 10:1 superiority in artillery. Even if Ukraine destroys 90% of Russian artillery, and sustains no losses to its own and Russia is unable to resupply, Russia will still have parity. It's by no means a hopeless task, but it's a very big one.
Putin is trying to wage war as "the continuation of politics by other means".

He is trying to wear down the will of the Ukrainian people with attacks on civilians to put pressure on Zelensky to give up parts of Eastern Ukraine.

He initially wanted a puppet regime, so that's a huge scaling back. He also has to try to sustain the rate of fire with the artillery because if it looks like he's trying to husband a scarce resource, that loses most of its morale effect.





Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
And my view has been been all along that it is unwise to call the News Good News, not even lowkey, while Ukraine is outgunned, suffering widespread destruction and (slow as they may be) enemy advances.

If some here are praising Ukraine for all their winning, I think it is helpful to behold gloomier views.

This thing will not be all over by the end of the year, barring some fundamental change, and that is Terrible News for Ukraine, even if long term they are the more likely winners.
Survival for the Ukrainian state is a victory. One that many people didn't think would be happening at the end of February.
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Old 28th June 2022, 02:35 PM   #1262
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
And given the Russian reliance on artillery, it would seem likely that they would have some barrels stockpiled already. It would seem a basic logistical standard of keeping x number of barrels stockpiled for every y number of shells stockpiled above a certain number. A paired requirement.
You would think so. But you might also think that having the logistics of fuel delivery worked out before an invasion would be a good idea, as well.
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Old 28th June 2022, 02:36 PM   #1263
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Originally Posted by ZirconBlue View Post
You would think so. But you might also think that having the logistics of fuel delivery worked out before an invasion would be a good idea, as well.
So many other similar things that someone with a passing knowledge of history could also have spotted as being stupid.
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Old 28th June 2022, 04:33 PM   #1264
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
To temper this a bit - Artillery barrels are not high tech, at last check. Russia should be able to mass produce replacements in plenty of bulk.
I wouldn't be too sure about that.
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Old 28th June 2022, 05:52 PM   #1265
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I mean, modern artillery barrels probably use fancy high-strength, low weight alloys, and have futuristic linings to improve performance and reduce wear. But even the old-timey hollowed-out steel rods or whatever Soviet-era barrels the Russians have still require at least decent-quality steel, and properly-machined barrel surfaces, and stuff like that.
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Old 28th June 2022, 05:56 PM   #1266
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And the overall efficeincy of Russian Industry has not changed much from the good old days of the Soviet Union...


Russian workers still have the attitude of 'As Long As They Pretend To Pay Us, We Will Pretend To Work".
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Old 28th June 2022, 06:05 PM   #1267
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
I wouldn't be too sure about that.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I mean, modern artillery barrels probably use fancy high-strength, low weight alloys, and have futuristic linings to improve performance and reduce wear. But even the old-timey hollowed-out steel rods or whatever Soviet-era barrels the Russians have still require at least decent-quality steel, and properly-machined barrel surfaces, and stuff like that.
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And the overall efficeincy of Russian Industry has not changed much from the good old days of the Soviet Union...


Russian workers still have the attitude of 'As Long As They Pretend To Pay Us, We Will Pretend To Work".
As I said, "should." Russian incompetence/corruption/etc is pretty profound, but the challenges here should be much easier to overcome than, say, lack of appropriate microchips because they can't produce them at all. When it comes to raw resources, Russia should have plenty available. Further, the Russian steel market has been one of the largest in the world and they've also been one of the biggest exporters of steel in the world. It would be more surprising for them not to be able to make parts like their artillery barrels in bulk without any serious issue.
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Old 29th June 2022, 07:52 AM   #1268
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Norway is sending 3 M270 MLRS to Ukraine. That's positive, though I was hoping they'd send all 12 of the ones they have in storage. That makes 9 M270 or variants and 8 HIMARS pledged so far.

In my non-expert opinion, I'd like to see Ukraine have about 50 M270 and HIMARS total; that would be enough for each brigade to have a two-launcher section, plus several in reserve. As we've discussed, the bottleneck isn't the number of launchers; it's the ammunition.
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Old 29th June 2022, 08:17 AM   #1269
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Norway is sending 3 M270 MLRS to Ukraine. That's positive, though I was hoping they'd send all 12 of the ones they have in storage. That makes 9 M270 or variants and 8 HIMARS pledged so far.

In my non-expert opinion, I'd like to see Ukraine have about 50 M270 and HIMARS total; that would be enough for each brigade to have a two-launcher section, plus several in reserve. As we've discussed, the bottleneck isn't the number of launchers; it's the ammunition.
It's no good sending them until they can use them. As crews and support are trained they will feed in.
Plus it takes time to prepare equipment that has been in storage
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Old 29th June 2022, 08:26 AM   #1270
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It's no good sending them until they can use them. As crews and support are trained they will feed in.
Plus it takes time to prepare equipment that has been in storage

I see your point. I was going off the fact that they sent all 22 of their old M109s at once, but those hadn't been in storage nearly as long as the MLRS, plus for the same reason the Norwegians probably don't have many personnel who are qualified to train the Ukrainians.
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Old 29th June 2022, 08:31 AM   #1271
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
I see your point. I was going off the fact that they sent all 22 of their old M109s at once, but those hadn't been in storage nearly as long as the MLRS, plus for the same reason the Norwegians probably don't have many personnel who are qualified to train the Ukrainians.
Also conventional artillery is pretty much all the same in operation.
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Old 29th June 2022, 08:45 AM   #1272
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Also conventional artillery is pretty much all the same in operation.
Yeah, but you're not asking the gun crew to reason abstractly about the fundamental mechanisms of the gun, at their leisure. You're asking them to step through a series of rote actions, with a specific arrangement of controls and a specific list of attributes unique to that particular make and model of gun.

Sure, "set elevation, set azimuth, load, fire" is about the same, but on this gun it's a lever on the right, on that gun it's a knob on the left. On this other gun, you have to throw this switch before doing the other thing. That gun sets elevation and azimuth automagically from networked targeting data, and you confirm/override it here, but on this gun you set all that manually over there. This gun is designed for a four-man crew, with the tasks being arranged thusly. That gun also takes a four man crew, but the tasks are assigned the other way round. Meanwhile this other gun only needs a three-man crew. Yet another gun is optimized for a five-man crew, which may seem a bit much but actually improves a key step by dividing the labor more finely. Etc.

And that's before we even get into the intricacies and idiosyncracies of crew-level maintenance and support versus armory-level maintenance and support.

Even if you start with veteran gunnery crew, there's still gonna be quite a bit of training and practicing to do, with a new gun.
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Old 29th June 2022, 09:02 AM   #1273
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Yeah, but you're not asking the gun crew to reason abstractly about the fundamental mechanisms of the gun, at their leisure. You're asking them to step through a series of rote actions, with a specific arrangement of controls and a specific list of attributes unique to that particular make and model of gun.

Sure, "set elevation, set azimuth, load, fire" is about the same, but on this gun it's a lever on the right, on that gun it's a knob on the left. On this other gun, you have to throw this switch before doing the other thing. That gun sets elevation and azimuth automagically from networked targeting data, and you confirm/override it here, but on this gun you set all that manually over there. This gun is designed for a four-man crew, with the tasks being arranged thusly. That gun also takes a four man crew, but the tasks are assigned the other way round. Meanwhile this other gun only needs a three-man crew. Yet another gun is optimized for a five-man crew, which may seem a bit much but actually improves a key step by dividing the labor more finely. Etc.

And that's before we even get into the intricacies and idiosyncracies of crew-level maintenance and support versus armory-level maintenance and support.

Even if you start with veteran gunnery crew, there's still gonna be quite a bit of training and practicing to do, with a new gun.
I had assumed there'd have been a bit more ergonomic standardisation amongst NSTO-standard equipment where possible.
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Old 29th June 2022, 09:39 AM   #1274
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I had assumed there'd have been a bit more ergonomic standardisation amongst NSTO-standard equipment where possible.
I don't think there's any standardization of field gun ergonomics. Most of the STANAG stuff seems to be standardization of doctrine, comms, and in some cases control interfaces of electronics like drone systems.

I wouldn't be surprised if the western arms manufacturers have converged on a few very similar ergonomic patterns for field guns, but I also wouldn't be surprised if each manufacturer has its idiosyncrasies in design. A British field gun is probably just similar enough to an American field gun to cause problems without careful attention to detail. And I wouldn't be surprised if the self-propelled artillery has even more variances between manufacturers; operating the vehicle and the vehicle-integrated gun from that particular manufacturer.

Then there's the bit that the Ukrainian gunners aren't even coming from other STANAG-derived systems.
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Old 29th June 2022, 09:49 AM   #1275
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I had assumed there'd have been a bit more ergonomic standardisation amongst NSTO-standard equipment where possible.
Standardisation in ammunition and that's about it.

For example Self propelling artillery, the US M109 was in widespread use across NATO and still is with Canada, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Spain and USA.
British Army switched to the AS-90 and Croatia, Germany, Greece, Hungary Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands and Germany are using the German PzH2000.
France uses the AMX-30 AuF1 and the Czech Republic, Poland and Slavakia use the Czech SpGH DANA. Poland also uses the AHS Krab.

All use the same ammunition.
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Old 29th June 2022, 09:57 AM   #1276
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I don't think there's any standardization of field gun ergonomics. Most of the STANAG stuff seems to be standardization of doctrine, comms, and in some cases control interfaces of electronics like drone systems.

I wouldn't be surprised if the western arms manufacturers have converged on a few very similar ergonomic patterns for field guns, but I also wouldn't be surprised if each manufacturer has its idiosyncrasies in design. A British field gun is probably just similar enough to an American field gun to cause problems without careful attention to detail. And I wouldn't be surprised if the self-propelled artillery has even more variances between manufacturers; operating the vehicle and the vehicle-integrated gun from that particular manufacturer.

Then there's the bit that the Ukrainian gunners aren't even coming from other STANAG-derived systems.
British Army only has a one type of towed artillery now. The M118 105mm light gun used by the Parachute Regiment and Royal Marine Commando field artillery regiments.
It's the same British designed and built gun as used by the USA. All the other towed artillery was replaced with all SP guns and MLRS many years ago.

Ironic that the USA and Canada use the M777 Designed by Vickers in the UK and built at a BAE's facility in Hattiesburg, Mississippi but managed from Barrow-in-Furness.

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Old 29th June 2022, 11:51 AM   #1277
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Originally Posted by Oystein
Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Avatar bet? Why not.

For past few days I was kicking around idea for Donbas bet.
Russian control over Donbas (both oblasts)
Time limit: Three months
Do you mean we revisit the map of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in three months time, on 2022/09/22, say 1200 UT, and ... then what? You bet Russia will not control the total area of both oblasts?
I'd not bet against that - for I think there will still be somewhat of a stalemate then, with the line of contact not very much different from today, and that might mean Ukraine has gained a few km2 somewhere inside Donbass, while Russia gained a few km2 more outside Donbass.

Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
For invasion itself:
Russians removed from all of Urkaine.
Time limit: 31.12.2022
Really? Including Crimea?
I'm game!
I just wrote second proposal to start discussion on avatar bet. It is not my claim. (My main interest was in first proposal)

I'll think about second proposal I wrote. While I like the idea, there are too many variables for my liking. (I don't have good track record of bets...)
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Old 29th June 2022, 12:09 PM   #1278
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
British Army only has a one type of towed artillery now. The M118 105mm light gun used by the Parachute Regiment and Royal Marine Commando field artillery regiments.
It's the same British designed and built gun as used by the USA. All the other towed artillery was replaced with all SP guns and MLRS many years ago.

Ironic that the USA and Canada use the M777 Designed by Vickers in the UK and built at a BAE's facility in Hattiesburg, Mississippi but managed from Barrow-in-Furness.
See what I mean? Some convergence, but still a variety of manufacturers. The M118, the M777 towed, the AS-90 and M109 variants (self-propelled), and that's just between the US and the UK. For Ukrainian crews coming off of Warsaw Pact gear, there's going to be a bit of training involved, regardless of how similar the basic operational principles are.
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Old 29th June 2022, 02:49 PM   #1279
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Well, at least one MLRS or HIMARS has found its target so far

Quote:
#Ukraine: We finally can visually confirm that US-supplied M142 HIMARS are currently used for strikes deep into Russian-controlled territories - fragments of M31A1 GMLRS unitary rocket were found after a target was hit in Perevalsk, #Luhansk Oblast, 45 km from the front line
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...uMVVxdiEixJA1w
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Old 29th June 2022, 04:00 PM   #1280
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Awesome. Hopefully there's a lot more of that to come.
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