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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 29th June 2022, 05:27 PM   #1281
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Ukrainian troops being trained in the UK, video in link
Thousands have been trained by the British Army since 2015. One of the reasons they are doing so well, they have had training in depth already.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-619736...ost_type=share
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Old 29th June 2022, 06:55 PM   #1282
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
I just wrote second proposal to start discussion on avatar bet. It is not my claim. (My main interest was in first proposal)

I'll think about second proposal I wrote. While I like the idea, there are too many variables for my liking. (I don't have good track record of bets...)
Hmm okay. I'll wait.
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Old 29th June 2022, 07:32 PM   #1283
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NATO brands Russia the biggest 'direct threat' to Western security, as it eyes off 'serious challenges' posed by China

Quote:
NATO, the world's largest and most powerful military alliance, has branded Russia the biggest "direct threat" to Western security after its invasion of Ukraine.

World leaders have been meeting in Spain, with conversations centred around the Kremlin's invasion, and Beijing's growing international ambitions.

As part of the two-day summit, a new strategic concept was put forward that sets the alliance's areas of focus and is updated roughly once a decade.

Here's what you might have missed...
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Old 29th June 2022, 09:13 PM   #1284
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Now the action movie makers have a new "bad guy" country to use as the antagonist.
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Old 29th June 2022, 11:32 PM   #1285
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Now the action movie makers have a new "bad guy" country to use as the antagonist.
New?
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Old 30th June 2022, 01:50 AM   #1286
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Another bleak summary from ISW :

Quote:
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and that Russian authorities are setting conditions for annexation through preparing referenda in occupied areas.
  • Russian forces may be planning a false flag provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Lysychansk.
  • Russian forces made marginal gains east of Bakhmut along the E40 highway and may seek to prepare for a direct offensive on Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.
  • Russian forces are continuing to engage in offensive operations north of Kharkiv City, indicating that the Kremlin has territorial ambitions beyond the Donbas that will continue to attrit manpower and equipment, potentially at the cost of offensive power on more critical axes of advance.
  • Russian forces continued to reinforce their defensive presence along the Southern Axis.
https://understandingwar.org/backgro...ssment-june-29

I know that Russia is supposed to be hollowing out their units to continue to reinforce the front lines but they seem to be doing it on multiple fronts.

They're continuing their relentless grind on the eastern front.

They're throwing more men and materiel towards Kharkiv.

They're finding men and equipment to reinforce their positions in the South.

I really do hope they start to run out of steam soon.
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Old 30th June 2022, 02:02 AM   #1287
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Another bleak summary from ISW :



https://understandingwar.org/backgro...ssment-june-29

I know that Russia is supposed to be hollowing out their units to continue to reinforce the front lines but they seem to be doing it on multiple fronts.

They're continuing their relentless grind on the eastern front.

They're throwing more men and materiel towards Kharkiv.

They're finding men and equipment to reinforce their positions in the South.

I really do hope they start to run out of steam soon.
They have no steam left.
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Old 30th June 2022, 02:08 AM   #1288
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Another bleak summary from ISW :



https://understandingwar.org/backgro...ssment-june-29

I know that Russia is supposed to be hollowing out their units to continue to reinforce the front lines but they seem to be doing it on multiple fronts.

They're continuing their relentless grind on the eastern front.

They're throwing more men and materiel towards Kharkiv.

They're finding men and equipment to reinforce their positions in the South.

I really do hope they start to run out of steam soon.

Remember that the initial assessment was that Russia would struggle with resistance once it had installed a puppet regime.

If you are trying to persuade the people you've invaded to give up, you don't want to be seen to husband your resources - especially if you really don't care about your troops
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Old 30th June 2022, 02:09 AM   #1289
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US intelligence see that:
Quote:
In her first public comments since May on the US intelligence assessment of the war, Ms Haines suggested Russia's invasion would grind on "for an extended period of time" and that "the picture remains pretty grim".

She said intelligence agencies see three scenarios of how the war could play out, the most likely being a slow moving conflict with Russia making "incremental gains, with no breakthrough".

The other, less likely possibilities include a major Russian breakthrough, or a stabilisation of the frontlines with Ukraine achieving small gains.

It may mean Moscow becomes more dependent on "asymmetric tools" to target its enemies; including cyber attacks, efforts to control energy resources and even nuclear weapons.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61990495

Article does state that there is a mismatch between Putin's ambitions, and Russia's military capacity, but it does seem a long grind will be a likely outcome.
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Old 30th June 2022, 02:10 AM   #1290
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
They have no steam left.
They're still making marginal gains in Donbas and to the north of Kharkiv whilst at the same time not losing any of the ground they have gained in the South.

They're still putting Ukrainian defenders under a lot of pressure, causing horrific damage to those areas they can shell and have demonstrated that they can still conduct terror attacks throughout the rest of Ukraine with their longer range weapons.

Meanwhile they are still blockading Ukraine's sea traffic in part because they still hold Snake Island.
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Old 30th June 2022, 02:11 AM   #1291
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
New?
Recycled.
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Old 30th June 2022, 02:28 AM   #1292
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
they still hold Snake Island.
Nope.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61987663

Quote:
Russia says its forces have withdrawn from Snake Island in the north-western Black Sea, which was captured at the start of the war
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Old 30th June 2022, 02:32 AM   #1293
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
They're still making marginal gains in Donbas and to the north of Kharkiv whilst at the same time not losing any of the ground they have gained in the South.

They're still putting Ukrainian defenders under a lot of pressure, causing horrific damage to those areas they can shell and have demonstrated that they can still conduct terror attacks throughout the rest of Ukraine with their longer range weapons.

Meanwhile they are still blockading Ukraine's sea traffic in part because they still hold Snake Island.
You think Snake Island is blocking sea traffic?
Russia have withdrawn, they haven't been able to resupply.

If they had steam they would be making some real gains and not battering away to make 'marginal' gains. Ukraine are still re-equipping and training. Why would they want to go off half cocked?

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 30th June 2022 at 02:33 AM.
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Old 30th June 2022, 03:57 AM   #1294
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
That's great news as I understand it.


In other news, I think Bernie Ecclestone made some very ill-judged comments:

Quote:
Ex-Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone has described Vladimir Putin as a "first-class person" who is doing something he believes is right for Russia.

The two men have known each other for several years, and reportedly became friends after Russia was first given the opportunity to host an F1 Grand Prix in 2014.

Asked on ITV's Good Morning Britain if he still regards Putin as a friend, Ecclestone says: "I'd still take a bullet for him."
Quote:
He also says Lewis Hamilton should have "brushed aside" racist comments from 1980s F1 world champion Nelson Piquet.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Last edited by The Don; 30th June 2022 at 04:00 AM.
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Old 30th June 2022, 04:04 AM   #1295
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That's great news as I understand it.


In other news, I think Bernie Ecclestone made some very ill-judged comments:





https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
I can imagine Bernie and Vlad getting on like a house in fire.
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Old 30th June 2022, 04:04 AM   #1296
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Another bleak summary from ISW :
Good news. Your own source doesn't say anything like that. You are reading some alternate version of that psot...

Quote:
https://understandingwar.org/backgro...ssment-june-29

I know that Russia is supposed to be hollowing out their units to continue to reinforce the front lines but they seem to be doing it on multiple fronts.
It takes time to fully exhaust army.
Quote:
They're continuing their relentless grind on the eastern front.
Grind with no advancement but tons of losses...
Quote:
They're throwing more men and materiel towards Kharkiv.
And with no results. Nothing to show for that. Just extra dead meat and scrap metal.
Quote:
They're finding men and equipment to reinforce their positions in the South.
They might. Just to get them terminated by drones, artillery or partisans. UA is pretty close to Kherson already.
Quote:
I really do hope they start to run out of steam soon.
They already do. No Russian successful action in Kharkiv, Kherson, Izium or South.

ISW maps: https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/st...96338641158144
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Old 30th June 2022, 04:05 AM   #1297
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
You think Snake Island is blocking sea traffic?
Russia have withdrawn, they haven't been able to resupply.
That breaking news came after my post - IMO its great news.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
If they had steam they would be making some real gains and not battering away to make 'marginal' gains.
They're still crawling across Eastern Ukraine, reducing everything they can to rubble. They've proven that they cannot conduct a war or movement, but unfortunately a war of attrition is something that they're good enough at to keep doing it for months at a time.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Ukraine are still re-equipping and training. Why would they want to go off half cocked?
You're right, they wouldn't. If there's a decisive counterattack in the upcoming months, I'd be delighted but the Russians appear to be digging in and preparing for a defensive war.
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Old 30th June 2022, 04:40 AM   #1298
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That breaking news came after my post - IMO its great news.



They're still crawling across Eastern Ukraine, reducing everything they can to rubble. They've proven that they cannot conduct a war or movement, but unfortunately a war of attrition is something that they're good enough at to keep doing it for months at a time.



You're right, they wouldn't. If there's a decisive counterattack in the upcoming months, I'd be delighted but the Russians appear to be digging in and preparing for a defensive war.
They are wasting what forces they have with their pointless attacks that are achieving nothing compared to the cost
Throwing forces in piecemeal just wastes them.

As for Snake Island, another embarrassing retreat. It's an admission they can't defend it from attack or effectively resupply.
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Old 30th June 2022, 05:27 AM   #1299
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
They're still crawling across Eastern Ukraine, reducing everything they can to rubble. They've proven that they cannot conduct a war or movement, but unfortunately a war of attrition is something that they're good enough at to keep doing it for months at a time.
Ukraine will cede the pocket around Severodonetsk and draw a defensive line from Bakhmut to Siversk that Russia will not cross, largely because they're depleted but also they can't stretch their supply lines that far. This will protect the tactically valuable Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and allow Ukraine protection to bomb deep into Russian-held territory.

Russia wants to call Luhansk a victory and stop for now anyway. This appears to be the end of a phase in Donbas.

(I thought I bookmarked the source, but I can't find it. I read this somewhere yesterday, though.)
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Old 30th June 2022, 05:50 AM   #1300
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
Ukraine will cede the pocket around Severodonetsk and draw a defensive line from Bakhmut to Siversk that Russia will not cross, largely because they're depleted but also they can't stretch their supply lines that far. This will protect the tactically valuable Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and allow Ukraine protection to bomb deep into Russian-held territory.

Russia wants to call Luhansk a victory and stop for now anyway. This appears to be the end of a phase in Donbas.

(I thought I bookmarked the source, but I can't find it. I read this somewhere yesterday, though.)
Maybe Igor "Strelkov" Girkin as translated by https://twitter.com/mdmitri91 at https://wartranslated.com/?
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Old 30th June 2022, 06:32 AM   #1301
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Ukraine aren't going to try anything offensive until they are properly re-equipped and trained.
Pushing stuff in piecemeal is the best way to lose it.
On fronts where they find a weakness they may push with what is already there but don't expect any big attacks until they are ready.
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Old 30th June 2022, 06:49 AM   #1302
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In other news, I think Bernie Ecclestone made some very ill-judged comments:

Quote:
Ex-Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone has described Vladimir Putin as a "first-class person" who is doing something he believes is right for Russia.

The two men have known each other for several years, and reportedly became friends after Russia was first given the opportunity to host an F1 Grand Prix in 2014.

Asked on ITV's Good Morning Britain if he still regards Putin as a friend, Ecclestone says: "I'd still take a bullet for him."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Stalin did what he believed was right for Russia. And Hitler did what he believed was right for Germany.
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Old 30th June 2022, 07:24 AM   #1303
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That breaking news came after my post - IMO its great news.



They're still crawling across Eastern Ukraine, reducing everything they can to rubble. They've proven that they cannot conduct a war or movement, but unfortunately a war of attrition is something that they're good enough at to keep doing it for months at a time.



You're right, they wouldn't. If there's a decisive counterattack in the upcoming months, I'd be delighted but the Russians appear to be digging in and preparing for a defensive war.
They're barely crawling. They couldn't capture the capital and overthrow the government with Blitzkrieg. They couldn't overrun the country with Deep Battle. Now they're throwing everything they have to throw, just to hold on to their initial gains, and to keep making marginal advances on Karkhiv.

They're effectively almost on defense at this point. The only reason they're not entirely on defense is that Ukraine isn't ready to mount a full counterattack yet. The Russians are taking advantage of the lull to try to eke out a few more miles of distance between the front and the Russian border. This may end up being a stalemate and eventual cease-fire, along the front more or less as it is now. That's my expectation. Or the hoped-for Ukrainian second wind will come, bearing modern arms gifted by the west, and fresh troops trained by the west in those arms. We'll see.
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Old 30th June 2022, 07:34 AM   #1304
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Maybe Igor "Strelkov" Girkin as translated by https://twitter.com/mdmitri91 at https://wartranslated.com/?
I remember Girkin was referenced, but only as confirmation. Sorry, I thought I'd bookmarked it. Maybe my thousands of bookmarks are becoming unwieldy.

ETA: I found it on Daily KOS, which is admittedly not a very neutral source.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...n-to-join-NATO
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Old 30th June 2022, 08:02 AM   #1305
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Nope.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61987663

Quote:
Russia says its forces have withdrawn from Snake Island in the north-western Black Sea, which was captured at the start of the war
The island is about 35 km off the coast. The French Caeser artillery has a range of 42 km. That seems to have prompted the "goodwill gesture".
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Old 30th June 2022, 08:11 AM   #1306
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
The island is about 35 km off the coast. The French Caeser artillery has a range of 42 km. That seems to have prompted the "goodwill gesture".

ETA: Or domestically produced Ukrainian arty:
Quote:
TB2 UCAV footage from the Ukrainian military showing strikes on Snake Island. Interestingly, Ukraine claims that Ukrainian 2S22 Bohdana 155 howitzers were used to target the island.
Maybe it might have been feasible to use any 155m artillery if the ammo is interchangeable enough.
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Old 30th June 2022, 09:05 AM   #1307
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
I remember Girkin was referenced, but only as confirmation. Sorry, I thought I'd bookmarked it. Maybe my thousands of bookmarks are becoming unwieldy.

ETA: I found it on Daily KOS, which is admittedly not a very neutral source.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...n-to-join-NATO

It started with Strelkov in Sloviyansk, it will likely end (soon, without Strelkov) in Sloviyansk.
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Old 30th June 2022, 09:48 AM   #1308
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
They're barely crawling. They couldn't capture the capital and overthrow the government with Blitzkrieg. They couldn't overrun the country with Deep Battle. Now they're throwing everything they have to throw, just to hold on to their initial gains, and to keep making marginal advances on Karkhiv.

They're effectively almost on defense at this point. The only reason they're not entirely on defense is that Ukraine isn't ready to mount a full counterattack yet. The Russians are taking advantage of the lull to try to eke out a few more miles of distance between the front and the Russian border. This may end up being a stalemate and eventual cease-fire, along the front more or less as it is now. That's my expectation. Or the hoped-for Ukrainian second wind will come, bearing modern arms gifted by the west, and fresh troops trained by the west in those arms. We'll see.
According to the British Army they have trained thousands of Ukraine troops since 2015
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Old 30th June 2022, 02:59 PM   #1309
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
It started with Strelkov in Sloviyansk, it will likely end (soon, without Strelkov) in Sloviyansk.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...raine-VIDEO-vn

40 dead Russians as the result of US HIMARS. Maybe there was a general among them, if the Russians have any left. Killing Russians gangsters is a great use of my tax dollars.
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Old 30th June 2022, 03:46 PM   #1310
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I can imagine Bernie and Vlad getting on like a house in fire.
Stephan Segal is still a Putin fanboy also.
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Old 30th June 2022, 04:05 PM   #1311
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Stephan Segal is still a Putin fanboy also.
It's a great match -- a tin-pot dictator and a washed-up fraud.
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Old 30th June 2022, 06:05 PM   #1312
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Russian occupiers, **** off.
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Old 30th June 2022, 06:34 PM   #1313
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Little two minute video of the Caeser artillery. To my untrained eye that looks like a pretty fast rate of fire for a gun with a 45 km range. Especially if is auto-correcting for whatever minor shifting and settling that the vehicle might undergo with each shot.

These seem to what was used (possibly also with some Ukrainian-built artillery with similar range) to finally force Russia of Snake Island.

https://twitter.com/Ahmad30812873/st...67629806071809

No point to make, I just thought it was an interesting vid, with the partial auto loading thing.
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Old 1st July 2022, 04:30 AM   #1314
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Little two minute video of the Caeser artillery. To my untrained eye that looks like a pretty fast rate of fire for a gun with a 45 km range. Especially if is auto-correcting for whatever minor shifting and settling that the vehicle might undergo with each shot.

These seem to what was used (possibly also with some Ukrainian-built artillery with similar range) to finally force Russia of Snake Island.

https://twitter.com/Ahmad30812873/st...67629806071809

No point to make, I just thought it was an interesting vid, with the partial auto loading thing.
The British AS-90 SP gun and the 105mm towed gun and have a radar above the barrel, it records the trajectory and muzzle velocity of each shot and the gun automatically 're lays' before the next round. They are using a system that is common to a few NATO countries, I don't have the details at hand at the moment though.

I would think the threatto Snake Island is from missiles attacking both the installations ashore and any ships trying to resupply.

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 1st July 2022 at 04:31 AM.
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Old 1st July 2022, 05:17 AM   #1315
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The British AS-90 SP gun and the 105mm towed gun and have a radar above the barrel, it records the trajectory and muzzle velocity of each shot and the gun automatically 're lays' before the next round. They are using a system that is common to a few NATO countries, I don't have the details at hand at the moment though.

I would think the threatto Snake Island is from missiles attacking both the installations ashore and any ships trying to resupply.
The highlighted.

I'm guessing both.

It's a bit bad if your supply vessels are at risk of being sunk. And when you are unloading, they're also at risk from both missiles and 155mm artillery. As are any installations you're building that are not underground.
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Old 1st July 2022, 05:40 AM   #1316
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Funny. I called Russian control of Snake Island untenable. Was right...
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Old 1st July 2022, 08:32 AM   #1317
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Funny. I called Russian control of Snake Island untenable. Was right...
It's the Ukes' fault. They had a fine, target-rich area, and if they hadn't been so greedy they still would.

The trick is to let the Putlerists stay just barely alive: shell 'em tonight, then sink a barge tomorrow. Harass constantly with economical fire, then lay down an old-fashioned TOT* on saints' days. They'd keep swapping out commanders, and with luck they'd never catch on.


* Cap'n Swoop will know what I'm talking about. Gunners all know their history.
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Old 1st July 2022, 10:18 AM   #1318
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post


* Cap'n Swoop will know what I'm talking about. Gunners all know their history.
Haven't got a clue.
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Old 1st July 2022, 10:37 AM   #1319
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Haven't got a clue.
Time On Target, a British innovation in the North African campaign. (Wiki has a good article on it. Sorry, I have trouble posting links.) All the guns within range of a target fire at predetermined times so that their shells strike at nearly the same instant. A 3-second window is considered sufficient. TOT was much used by all the armies of WW2, and is still practiced when an opportunity offers.

As for instance, againt fixed installations, stalled transport, and similar unwise arrangements.
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Old 1st July 2022, 10:37 AM   #1320
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post
It's the Ukes' fault. They had a fine, target-rich area, and if they hadn't been so greedy they still would.

The trick is to let the Putlerists stay just barely alive: shell 'em tonight, then sink a barge tomorrow. Harass constantly with economical fire, then lay down an old-fashioned TOT* on saints' days. They'd keep swapping out commanders, and with luck they'd never catch on.


* Cap'n Swoop will know what I'm talking about. Gunners all know their history.
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Haven't got a clue.
I presume it's Time on Target

And yes it was something that Russia wanted to keep - but it has already done that [ETA] talking about Snake Island.

Which shows the limit of Russia's grasp. Yes they can capture Snake Island. It is a bit of a pity that they weren't stupid enough to put some more valuable equipment on it, and try to keep supplying it. But it has already cost them a fair bit so forcing them to abandon it is also good.
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