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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 3rd July 2022, 02:20 PM   #1401
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
It's no secret that a small pain now will become a much larger pain later if Putin gains from his invasion of Ukraine. The real question is, when will the West begin to adequately equip Ukraine? However, there's some indication that the West is no longer publicizing its shipments in such a detailed manner, because discretion is the smarter way to go.
West was never publicizing the shipments in detailed manner.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 02:37 PM   #1402
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
First go is working.
Yeah, in a Maxwell Smart, "I meant to do that!" kind of way.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 02:42 PM   #1403
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
First go is working.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 03:16 PM   #1404
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Now the action movie makers have a new "bad guy" country to use as the antagonist.
Have you ever seen an 80s movie?
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Old 3rd July 2022, 03:24 PM   #1405
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Message of the President of LPR Leonid Pasechnik on the occasion of the liberation of the Republic:

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I AGREE
TFW.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 04:08 PM   #1406
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
First go is working.
About a dozen generals are explaining why that's not the case to their ancestors.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 05:20 PM   #1407
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Putler's blockade worries just about everybody. Breaking it by force would be easy for any western fleet, but would almost certainly start a new war, potentially nuclear, given Vlad's desperate situation. I've read an opinion that a diplomatic solution to the looming food crisis would be best -- and I can't see it happening until the Russians are convincingly beaten on the ground, in the inshore waters, and in the air. "Convincingly" means beaten back and beaten hollow, until Vladdie-boy is obled to ▶️ nice and pretend that he's averting a worldwide humanitarian crisis oh my goodness what a wonderfully humane leader he is let's give him a prize.

Unless, perhaps, the western powers can achieve a non-military but also non-diplomatic solution: an ENGINEERING solution that combines various means of transport to move Ukrainian grain out of the region and into the holds of world shipping. Can such a thing be done? Is innovation on that scale and in time possible?

Dunno if the world wonders, but I sure do.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 05:21 PM   #1408
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
It's no secret that a small pain now will become a much larger pain later if Putin gains from his invasion of Ukraine. The real question is, when will the West begin to adequately equip Ukraine? However, there's some indication that the West is no longer publicizing its shipments in such a detailed manner, because discretion is the smarter way to go.
It would take a rather cynical view of these back-to-back media stories about how poorly equipped and ill trained the Russian invasion force is to believe that Russia could be a threat to the EU (in a non nuclear, conventional sense) for the remainder of Putin's natural life.

It's the very near future that's going to show us just how impactful this "small pain" is going to be and it appears to be a pain that the EU has been trying to avoid by feeding the Russian war machine while beaking off about their sanctions.

No doubt it's spies that'll let Russia know about incoming western weapons shipments, the wheres and the whens so publicizing them is probably not a bad move when held up against the propaganda gains they give. Last time I looked we, the west were celebrating the delivery of 8 HIMARS units out of the 300 that UAF asked for.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 05:27 PM   #1409
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
First go is working.
If you call destroying your objective working. When does the rebuilding start?
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Old 3rd July 2022, 08:24 PM   #1410
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The Russians have been greeted as liberators, just as promised.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 09:06 PM   #1411
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post
Unless, perhaps, the western powers can achieve a non-military but also non-diplomatic solution: an ENGINEERING solution that combines various means of transport to move Ukrainian grain out of the region and into the holds of world shipping. Can such a thing be done? Is innovation on that scale and in time possible?

Dunno if the world wonders, but I sure do.
For what it's worth, at last check, there's been notable investment in Romania's railways and ports lately. It'll take a bit of time to actually do the work, though. That's fairly certainly not the only relevant infrastructure investment, as well.

Originally Posted by Stout View Post
Last time I looked we, the west were celebrating the delivery of 8 HIMARS units out of the 300 that UAF asked for.
More specifically, the 300 was apparently a request by an advisor to Zelensiy's chief of staff, along with about 500 tanks and about as much artillery as the whole US army + marines has. Ukraine's actual official requests have apparently been dramatically lower. Perhaps 60-100 HIMARS range, more likely, with 60 happening to have been the request of another advisor very shortly before the 300 request that's been publicized so much. Their actual tank requests have been more than satisfied last I heard, as well. Back to HIMARS, though. More HIMARS would be good, of course, but as has been poked at repeatedly, the ammo is the far, far greater logistical issue than the actual number of HIMARS are.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 09:16 PM   #1412
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Originally Posted by Allen773 View Post
The Russians have been greeted as liberators, just as promised.
By a very small minority, yes. By most, it doesn't look like it.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 09:20 PM   #1413
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
There is no way to "defeat Putin militarily". "Western" military-industrial complex is just to weak,
Bwahahahaha!

Russian fighter pilots are flying with consumer GPS receivers duct taped to their cockpits, and it’s the west that is weak? You have no conception of what military strength actually is.
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Old 3rd July 2022, 10:45 PM   #1414
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Originally Posted by Allen773 View Post
The Russians have been greeted as liberators, just as promised.
you mean by the few who haven't been used as cannon fodder?
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Old 3rd July 2022, 11:26 PM   #1415
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
you mean by the few who haven't been used as cannon fodder?
Oh, I'm sure they're amazingly happy to be forced to die for their freedom.
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Old 4th July 2022, 12:01 AM   #1416
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
If you call destroying your objective working. When does the rebuilding start?

It has already started. Each oblast of the Russian Federation has taken on a partnership with a city in Donbass and coordinate the rebuild. Of course you won't hear that in the propaganda rags you consume.
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Old 4th July 2022, 12:21 AM   #1417
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I doubt Russia is in any shape to have a second go at anything.
Give it a decade or so of supplying oil and gas to China and India and the "unaligned" world and the coffers will be full again.
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Old 4th July 2022, 12:26 AM   #1418
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
If you call destroying your objective working. When does the rebuilding start?
Why should they rebuild ?

Whilst the original Russian objective may have been to quickly topple the Ukrainian government and install a puppet, their Plan B (or Plan C or whatever) appears to be to cause as much damage to Ukraine as possible and as a result stop - or at least significantly delay - Ukraine's development into a modern, western-facing democracy.

Leaving large parts of Ukraine a smoking ruin, regardless of whose hands they are in, helps to achieve that objective.
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Old 4th July 2022, 12:59 AM   #1419
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
It has already started. Each oblast of the Russian Federation has taken on a partnership with a city in Donbass and coordinate the rebuild. Of course you won't hear that in the propaganda rags you consume.
Yippee!
Another excellent opportunity for corruption and personal enrichment!
Long Live the Kleptocracy!
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Old 4th July 2022, 01:55 AM   #1420
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https://samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraine-win

Discussion about whether Ukraine can win.

And what victory is... Which is more than just denying Russia victory
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Old 4th July 2022, 02:06 AM   #1421
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Why should they rebuild ?

Whilst the original Russian objective may have been to quickly topple the Ukrainian government and install a puppet, their Plan B (or Plan C or whatever) appears to be to cause as much damage to Ukraine as possible and as a result stop - or at least significantly delay - Ukraine's development into a modern, western-facing democracy.

Leaving large parts of Ukraine a smoking ruin, regardless of whose hands they are in, helps to achieve that objective.
The Russians are leaving the bits they are claiming are now part of Russia or independent in smoking ruins.
If they think they can hold on to it why would they be doing that?
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Old 4th July 2022, 02:19 AM   #1422
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The Russians are leaving the bits they are claiming are now part of Russia or independent in smoking ruins.
If they think they can hold on to it why would they be doing that?

They are doing the opposite of what you read in your dull propaganda rags. The "slowness" of their advance is because they want to avoid collateral damage like the Yankistanis caused with no second thought to Bagdad, Falluja, Mossul etc, their brute force modus of operandi.
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Old 4th July 2022, 02:48 AM   #1423
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Meanwhile:

Another titbit: Something that's not sustainable or likely to get good performance

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-july-3

Quote:
The Kremlin likely seeks to expand Russian state control over private Russian companies that support elements of Russia’s military industrial base. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 3 that the Russian government’s inability to pay Russian firms supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine is degrading Russia’s ability to repair damaged vehicles. The GUR reported that the directors of Russian military vehicle repair centers are not accepting new Russian equipment for repair because the Russian military has not paid these centers for previous work.[7] Recently proposed Russian legislation suggests that Kremlin leadership shares GUR’s assessment. Russian legislators in the Russian State Duma submitted a bill on June 30 that would empower the Kremlin to introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” enabling the Russian government to force private Russian companies to provide supplies for Russian military operations.[8] The bill prohibits Russian businesses from refusing to fulfil Russian government procurement orders connected to Russian military operations.
ETA: and increasing Ukrainian partisan activity - remember, this is what a lot of experts thought this would be the biggest threat to Russian control and what would eventually force them out.

Quote:
Ukrainian partisans reportedly derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.[33] Kremlin-sponsored outlet RIA Novosti acknowledged that the train derailed around Yakymivka, but claimed that the incident was an accident.[34] Ukrainian partisans previously targeted Russian armored trains and locomotives in Melitopol in late April and mid-May.[35]
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Old 4th July 2022, 03:03 AM   #1424
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The Russians are leaving the bits they are claiming are now part of Russia or independent in smoking ruins.
If they think they can hold on to it why would they be doing that?
Because the Russian leadership don't give a single solitary **** about the state of their country, just their own personal wellbeing.

I'm sure they'd like to hold onto the territory they've invaded if they don't manage to, making it nigh on impossible for Ukraine to do anything with it is an acceptable second prize.
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Old 4th July 2022, 03:08 AM   #1425
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Meanwhile:

Another titbit: Something that's not sustainable or likely to get good performance

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-july-3



ETA: and increasing Ukrainian partisan activity - remember, this is what a lot of experts thought this would be the biggest threat to Russian control and what would eventually force them out.
Trains are easy to derail, just loosen a few track ties or rail end joiners, all you need is a spanner.

For best effect do it on an embankment or in a cutting where it's hard to get anything alongside to put the derailed cars back on the track.
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Old 4th July 2022, 03:18 AM   #1426
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trains are easy to derail, just loosen a few track ties or rail end joiners, all you need is a spanner.

For best effect do it on an embankment or in a cutting where it's hard to get anything alongside to put the derailed cars back on the track.
Yes, and hard to tell from accidentd given Russian maintenance.

This is showing Russian MOD video, so propaganda

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...fMB_GGeTRL8vxw

Which tells me that they have been thinking attacks on trains has been a problem for some time.

I also question why they think that's a good thing to highlight that they feel the need to use armed trains with helicopter escorts. But hey.

ETA. From the link in the tweet

Quote:
Action of Volga special train created by Western MD railway troops professionals for engineering reconnaissance and track restoration in special military operation area

▫️The train is equipped with armoured surface, the platforms carry armament, equipment and firepower, as well as shelters for firing and repelling enemy's attacks.

@mod_russia_en
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Old 4th July 2022, 03:26 AM   #1427
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https://www.economist.com/europe/202...heir-own-lines

You can't read the whole article but there's a good summary before you hit the pay wall. The Ukrainians are engaging in partisan attacks against the occupiers. Maybe we should include some credit card guns, .25 cal pistols, silencers and other assassination weapons in our next shipment.
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Old 4th July 2022, 03:30 AM   #1428
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
A good article about German responses to the war.

Quote:
Timothy Snyder eviscerates Jürgen Habermas: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/...-18131718.html
Quoting "woodchopper" over on scrutable.science as he was the source.
And a good followup thread by Benjamin Tallis
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Old 4th July 2022, 03:39 AM   #1429
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Yes, and hard to tell from accidentd given Russian maintenance.

This is showing Russian MOD video, so propaganda

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...fMB_GGeTRL8vxw

Which tells me that they have been thinking attacks on trains has been a problem for some time.

I also question why they think that's a good thing to highlight that they feel the need to use armed trains with helicopter escorts. But hey.

ETA. From the link in the tweet
The problems with armoured trains is the enemy know exactly where they are going and the route they have to take, They derail just as easily as any other train and then they are sitting docks for an attack.
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Old 4th July 2022, 03:42 AM   #1430
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
https://www.economist.com/europe/202...heir-own-lines

You can't read the whole article but there's a good summary before you hit the pay wall. The Ukrainians are engaging in partisan attacks against the occupiers. Maybe we should include some credit card guns, .25 cal pistols, silencers and other assassination weapons in our next shipment.
The British in WW2 had the 'Welrod' and the 'Sleeve Gun'
Maybe they should be put back in to production
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Old 4th July 2022, 03:44 AM   #1431
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
You have just witnessed the liberation of the LPR from western-occupied Ukraine...
Funny how closely liberation resembles occupation by foreign invaders. How many Western armies are occupying the rest of Ukraine anyway?

I suppose the Russians imagine it would have looked less terrible if their original plan to topple the Kyiv government and install a puppet regime hadn't been an utter failure and total humiliation. If it had worked then the puppets could have invited the Russians in (when they were already there) just like Afghanistan all over again.

Now I find myself wondering who in the Kremlin first said "What we really need right now is another Afghanistan".
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Old 4th July 2022, 04:45 AM   #1432
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The British in WW2 had the 'Welrod' and the 'Sleeve Gun'
Maybe they should be put back in to production
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Great idea. Any occupier you shoot in the back of the head is one you don't have to kill at the FLOT and can't kill you.
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Old 4th July 2022, 04:51 AM   #1433
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Funny how closely liberation resembles occupation by foreign invaders. How many Western armies are occupying the rest of Ukraine anyway?

I suppose the Russians imagine it would have looked less terrible if their original plan to topple the Kyiv government and install a puppet regime hadn't been an utter failure and total humiliation. If it had worked then the puppets could have invited the Russians in (when they were already there) just like Afghanistan all over again.

Now I find myself wondering who in the Kremlin first said "What we really need right now is another Afghanistan".
It seems as though someone in the Kremlin asked, "How could we have another Afghanistan but make it worse?".
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Old 4th July 2022, 05:00 AM   #1434
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
First go is working.
We're only awaiting the "gesture of goodwill" when Russia flees Ukraine entirely.
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Old 4th July 2022, 05:01 AM   #1435
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Great idea. Any occupier you shoot in the back of the head is one you don't have to kill at the FLOT and can't kill you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freddie_Oversteegen
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Old 4th July 2022, 05:12 AM   #1436
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
How is it I've never heard of this person? I consider myself reasonably well read on the history of WWII and I've never come across her. When it's safe, the world should ensure that Ukraine's heroes like her aren't forgotten. I suspect there are a lot of them. I wonder how many Russian "desertions" are really horny occupiers who thought they were going to get laid and instead got their throats slit.
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Old 4th July 2022, 06:23 AM   #1437
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The problems with armoured trains is the enemy know exactly where they are going and the route they have to take, They derail just as easily as any other train and then they are sitting docks for an attack.
Naval background showing through.

But indeed. I wonder if it was more for internal morale purposes. As long as you don't think about their obvious weaknesses, they look quite impressive.
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Old 4th July 2022, 07:37 AM   #1438
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
They are doing the opposite of what you read in your dull propaganda rags. The "slowness" of their advance is because they want to avoid collateral damage like the Yankistanis caused with no second thought to Bagdad, Falluja, Mossul etc, their brute force modus of operandi.
Truly, no one does scrupulous, meticulous warfare special operation like the Russians.
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Old 4th July 2022, 07:40 AM   #1439
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The British in WW2 had the 'Welrod' and the 'Sleeve Gun'
Maybe they should be put back in to production
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Those were for use against an efficient enemy. Ukrainian partisans can buy all the small arms they want from any Russian quartermaster. Or from ordinary Ivan Gruntski, come to that.
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Old 4th July 2022, 05:25 PM   #1440
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
Ukraine will cede the pocket around Severodonetsk and draw a defensive line from Bakhmut to Siversk that Russia will not cross, largely because they're depleted but also they can't stretch their supply lines that far. This will protect the tactically valuable Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and allow Ukraine protection to bomb deep into Russian-held territory.

Russia wants to call Luhansk a victory and stop for now anyway. This appears to be the end of a phase in Donbas.
This appears to be accurate so far, according to today's analysis from ISW.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-july-4

I hope the next phase consists of Ukraine bombing the crap out of Russian positions from a safe distance.
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