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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 4th July 2022, 05:29 PM   #1441
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Part 3 of this excellent visual history of the course of the war has dropped. This 27:01 video covers the month of May 2022. It shows clearly just how little Russia gained in that time.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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Old 4th July 2022, 11:44 PM   #1442
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
This appears to be accurate so far, according to today's analysis from ISW.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-july-4

I hope the next phase consists of Ukraine bombing the crap out of Russian positions from a safe distance.
That would be a nice thought - as long as Ukraine has the means to do that. AIUI they're short of Soviet-era shells for their old artillery and the NATO-specification artillery hasn't arrived in the sorts of numbers to allow for 1:1 replacement.

The Russians OTOH seem determined to continue to advance westwards using their depressingly familiar tactics of using artillery to reduce their target to rubble, advance and repeat. The perceived wisdom is that the Russians will eventually run out of artillery, ordnance, men or a combination of more than one of them. As long as this happens then that's OK. If not, NATO will have to come up with a Plan B.
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Old 5th July 2022, 09:13 AM   #1443
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
This appears to be accurate so far, according to today's analysis from ISW.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-july-4

I hope the next phase consists of Ukraine bombing the crap out of Russian positions from a safe distance.
And now it seems less accurate:

Russia shells Ukraine's Donetsk region seeking new gains after seizing Luhansk (reuters.com)

It seems new weapons are getting through to Ukraine, though, so there's that.
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Old 5th July 2022, 09:43 AM   #1444
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Even if their forces are unable to advance, Russia will keep shelling Ukrainian military and civilian targets as long as they have artillery and ammunition, despite the fact that conserving those for future use might be more prudent.
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Old 5th July 2022, 10:27 AM   #1445
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Even if their forces are unable to advance, Russia will keep shelling Ukrainian military and civilian targets as long as they have artillery and ammunition, despite the fact that conserving those for future use might be more prudent.
It gives the impression they are accomplishing something.
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Old 5th July 2022, 12:32 PM   #1446
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trains are easy to derail, just loosen a few track ties or rail end joiners, all you need is a spanner.

For best effect do it on an embankment or in a cutting where it's hard to get anything alongside to put the derailed cars back on the track.

Another effective method used during the Rhodesian War was home made thermite - aluminium scrapings/rust in equal quantities, place two piles on track of choice a couple of meters apart, insert magnesium strip, ignite and retire.

Remove said couple of meters of track and trade with nearest scrap dealer for aluminium/magnesium. Rinse and repeat.

ETA: I discovered thermite by mistake - it involved grinding an aluminium VW Beetle 6V generator bracket to fit a 12V alternator using a grinding wheel mounted on a very rusty plinth. Amusing, informative and spectacular experience.
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Old 5th July 2022, 12:52 PM   #1447
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
you mean by the few who haven't been used as cannon fodder?
I meant this in the sense that esteemed elder statesman Dick Cheney meant it re: the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq.
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Old 5th July 2022, 03:38 PM   #1448
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Ukraine marines 80% loss rate in one unit

https://youtu.be/UH2tiIx22u4
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Old 5th July 2022, 03:46 PM   #1449
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
And now it seems less accurate:



Russia shells Ukraine's Donetsk region seeking new gains after seizing Luhansk (reuters.com)



It seems new weapons are getting through to Ukraine, though, so there's that.
Both can be true. The ground forces can rest while artillery behind the lines continues leveling anything within range.
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Old 6th July 2022, 12:13 AM   #1450
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Both can be true. The ground forces can rest while artillery behind the lines continues leveling anything within range.
That seems to be the approach that the Russian army seem most comfortable with and IMO it works (for limited values of work) as long as you have no consideration for collateral damage or how much of a ruin you're leaving behind. This appears to be the case for Russia.

As far as I can see, the limiting factors from Russia's perspective are:
  • Availability of shells - that seems not to be a limiting factor
  • Wear on the barrels reducing accuracy - the Russians don't care about pinpoint accuracy, a worn barrel isn't a concern from that perspective
  • Wear on the barrels rendering the artillery inoperable - that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment and Russia reportedly has huge reservices of artillery
  • Ukraine successfully targeting Russian artillery - can Ukraine do this in volume sufficient to make a significant difference ?

I hope that there's a turning point in the not too distant future otherwise Russia's relentless, glacially slow, grind across eastern Ukraine will continue.
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Old 6th July 2022, 02:56 AM   #1451
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That seems to be the approach that the Russian army seem most comfortable with and IMO it works (for limited values of work) as long as you have no consideration for collateral damage or how much of a ruin you're leaving behind. This appears to be the case for Russia.

As far as I can see, the limiting factors from Russia's perspective are:
  • Availability of shells - that seems not to be a limiting factor
  • Wear on the barrels reducing accuracy - the Russians don't care about pinpoint accuracy, a worn barrel isn't a concern from that perspective
  • Wear on the barrels rendering the artillery inoperable - that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment and Russia reportedly has huge reservices of artillery
  • Ukraine successfully targeting Russian artillery - can Ukraine do this in volume sufficient to make a significant difference ?

I hope that there's a turning point in the not too distant future otherwise Russia's relentless, glacially slow, grind across eastern Ukraine will continue.
Why do you think almost every day a Russian ammo store or two explode? Just to provide extended 4th July celebrations?

ETA: Also Ukraine is destroying those MRLS pretty frequently now...
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Old 6th July 2022, 02:58 AM   #1452
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Why do you think almost every day a Russian ammo store or two explode? Just to provide extended 4th July celebrations?
Has it slowed down the rate at which Russia is able to shell Ukraine ?

Has it slowed down their advance ?
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Old 6th July 2022, 03:26 AM   #1453
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Has it slowed down the rate at which Russia is able to shell Ukraine ?

Has it slowed down their advance ?
It reduces stocks that would have been available for use on other fronts or future attack and defence.

If they went any slower it would be a retreat.
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Old 6th July 2022, 03:29 AM   #1454
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The ISS greets the Lugansk People's Republic on the occasion of its liberation.

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Old 6th July 2022, 03:32 AM   #1455
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Why do you think almost every day a Russian ammo store or two explode? Just to provide extended 4th July celebrations?

ETA: Also Ukraine is destroying those MRLS pretty frequently now...
On the official website of the Austrian armed forces, a military scholar and close follower of the facts on the ground shares The Don's less optimistic view: there is no indication that Russia is running out of material including ammo any time soon, and continue showering Ukraine with 7 to 20 times superiority in ammo. It's actually Ukraine that's getting depletetd in all aspects except mancount.
He stresses the devastating effect of Russia being able to strike militaryand logistics targets deep inside Ukraine, and Ukraine not being able to strike back in kind nor to defend against many of those cruise and other missiles. Implying that those do significant damage.

I don't think Austria is doing Putler propaganda, nor are they falling for the same.
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Old 6th July 2022, 03:46 AM   #1456
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
On the official website of the Austrian armed forces, a military scholar and close follower of the facts on the ground shares The Don's less optimistic view: there is no indication that Russia is running out of material including ammo any time soon, and continue showering Ukraine with 7 to 20 times superiority in ammo. It's actually Ukraine that's getting depletetd in all aspects except mancount.
He stresses the devastating effect of Russia being able to strike militaryand logistics targets deep inside Ukraine, and Ukraine not being able to strike back in kind nor to defend against many of those cruise and other missiles. Implying that those do significant damage.

I don't think Austria is doing Putler propaganda, nor are they falling for the same.
FWIW, all those Russian ammo stores going boom is reasonably likely to lead to temporary relative lulls in bombardment and generally interferes with Russia's already problematic logistics.
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Old 6th July 2022, 05:05 AM   #1457
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It reduces stocks that would have been available for use on other fronts or future attack and defence.
True, but if that means that they only have 10 years worth of reserves instead of 10 years and 2 months worth then it may not be significant.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
If they went any slower it would be a retreat.
And yet here they are, continuing to grind away inexorably gaining a few hundred metres every day and pounding Ukraine into dust.

Hoping that the Russian military will run out of men, materiel or morale seems to be what the west is hoping for. I wonder if we have a Plan B in case this does not happen and Russia continues to make tiny incremental advances waiting for the winter when they can really hit Ukraine and the EU by turning off the gas and oil supplies.
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Old 6th July 2022, 05:28 AM   #1458
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
True, but if that means that they only have 10 years worth of reserves instead of 10 years and 2 months worth then it may not be significant.



And yet here they are, continuing to grind away inexorably gaining a few hundred metres every day and pounding Ukraine into dust.

Hoping that the Russian military will run out of men, materiel or morale seems to be what the west is hoping for. I wonder if we have a Plan B in case this does not happen and Russia continues to make tiny incremental advances waiting for the winter when they can really hit Ukraine and the EU by turning off the gas and oil supplies.
Why would they be able to hit any harder in the winter?

Why do you think the plan is to wait until Russia runs out of men and material?
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Old 6th July 2022, 05:54 AM   #1459
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Why would they be able to hit any harder in the winter?

Why do you think the plan is to wait until Russia runs out of men and material?
I'm not saying that they'll hit harder militarily in the winter but that if they shut off gas and oil supplies it'll hit the west and Ukraine very hard.
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Old 6th July 2022, 07:02 AM   #1460
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm not saying that they'll hit harder militarily in the winter but that if they shut off gas and oil supplies it'll hit the west and Ukraine very hard.
The people could either freeze or starve to death. Putin doesn't care which.
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Old 6th July 2022, 07:11 AM   #1461
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The people could either freeze or starve to death. Putin doesn't care which.
Sadly true.

Even sadder, he probably doesn't care whether those freezing and/or starving are in the occupied or non-occupied parts of Ukraine.

Heck, as long it hits Ukraine harder, he wouldn't mind if a few hundred thousand Russians freeze and/or starve as well.
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Old 6th July 2022, 07:22 AM   #1462
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The people could either freeze or starve to death. Putin doesn't care which.
In that, he resembles Nicholas II, although poor Nicky was not so much indifferent as uncomprehending.
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Old 6th July 2022, 07:41 AM   #1463
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The people could either freeze or starve to death. Putin doesn't care which.
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sadly true.

Because you "know" that from propaganda sources. Impressive.
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Old 6th July 2022, 08:40 AM   #1464
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Austria attacked Serbia in 1914. That's been called the last convulsion of a senile empire. The cause was trifling, the goals imaginary, the risks immense, the outcome catastrophic.

I don't say that any analogies with the present situation can be drawn very closely. But the resemblances are apparent.

As to political and cultural style: Remember the quaint beauties of the old dual monarchy, the mild decadence, the civility, the cultivation of the ruling class (not their native intelligence, no, but they were the grandchildren of Metternich and can be excused a few things), the music and painting and delectable tortes. It was not a barbarous empire, only a fading one.

Now regard the Russian empire of today. Look closely, smell deeply if you can, and count the dead bodies. What do you find to admire? What will you miss when it's gone?
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Old 6th July 2022, 09:57 AM   #1465
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
FWIW, all those Russian ammo stores going boom is reasonably likely to lead to temporary relative lulls in bombardment and generally interferes with Russia's already problematic logistics.
The story of RU's logistics problems vs Ukraine getting all that great Western ammo falls flat on its face where RU unrelentingly fires 7 to 20 times as much as the UA defenders - and keeps advancing, which means they are, in sum, better
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Old 6th July 2022, 10:02 AM   #1466
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
The story of RU's logistics problems vs Ukraine getting all that great Western ammo falls flat on its face where RU unrelentingly fires 7 to 20 times as much as the UA defenders - and keeps advancing, which means they are, in sum, better
How does it mean they are better?
What are they firing all that stuff at? Why should Ukraine be firing more?
Why should Ukraine do anything more than it is doing at the moment rather than when it has finished reequipping and training?
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Old 6th July 2022, 10:19 AM   #1467
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Pessimists like to be pessimistic, but I like to look at the bright side. For example, the recent news that Russia intends to carry out its original goal of annexing all of Ukraine is good to hear, since it puts to rest any notion of attempting to compromise with the madman that is Putin.

The worst thing the West can do is lose the will to support Ukraine to the end of the fight.

cf https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-july-5
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Old 6th July 2022, 10:20 AM   #1468
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Ukraine has only just got MLRS and HIMARS and they have only started to hit ammunition dumps.

That will have some time to feed through to supplies on the front.
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Old 6th July 2022, 11:36 AM   #1469
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Recent statements from Putin and other Russian officials indicate that Russia's goal is still to conquer all of Ukraine. Even if the Russians are able to continue making significant advances, they will only extend their supply lines, which will cause them to be both less efficient and more vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian partisans and Ukrainian tube artillery, rockets, and drones. The Russians weren't able to take Kyiv or Kharkiv on the first go-round; there is zero reason to believe that they can succeed any time soon.
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Old 6th July 2022, 12:00 PM   #1470
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Recent statements from Putin and other Russian officials indicate that Russia's goal is still to conquer all of Ukraine.

I must have missed those. Care to provide a direct source?
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Old 6th July 2022, 01:33 PM   #1471
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Has it slowed down the rate at which Russia is able to shell Ukraine ?

Has it slowed down their advance ?
Yes. Sometimes look at those maps (burying your head in the ground doesn't count).

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
On the official website of the Austrian armed forces, a military scholar and close follower of the facts on the ground shares The Don's less optimistic view: there is no indication that Russia is running out of material including ammo any time soon, and continue showering Ukraine with 7 to 20 times superiority in ammo. It's actually Ukraine that's getting depletetd in all aspects except mancount.
Funnily, there is no evidence for that. (Including any link to that alleged assessment)

Quote:
He stresses the devastating effect of Russia being able to strike militaryand logistics targets deep inside Ukraine, and Ukraine not being able to strike back in kind nor to defend against many of those cruise and other missiles. Implying that those do significant damage.

I don't think Austria is doing Putler propaganda, nor are they falling for the same.
There is no evidence for many of allegedly successful Russian attacks on Ukrainian military stuff.
Many of those missiles get shot down or just hit something else entirely.
As for last, doesn't look so.

For fun and profit:

Igor Girkin – Doom Frontline Update for the 4 July 2022
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Old 6th July 2022, 01:36 PM   #1472
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LPR Blogger Murz on Ammunition Stockpile Explosions

Choice quote:
Quote:
...
And next on the list are Snezhnoye and other less known places, and the many hours of explosions I’ve heard with my own ears. Now it is not the Ukrainian army that has the shell hunger, which was predicted by media-prostitute Shurygyn, but now we have shell hunger. It’s a second one – we just switched from the deficit 122mm to 152mm caliber, and now again.
...
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Old 6th July 2022, 02:00 PM   #1473
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Yes. Sometimes look at those maps (burying your head in the ground doesn't count).
I do look at the maps and that's why I know that the Russians have been creeping forward a few hundred metres a day for the last three months or more.
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Old 6th July 2022, 02:44 PM   #1474
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Because you "know" that from propaganda sources. Impressive.
So Putin doesn't even have to pay to rebuild the rubble. He has assigned that task to the lower levels of government.

This isn't so much about Russia as it is about Putin.

His cleptocracy has impoverished the people of Russia so he has to distract them with genocidal war.

His many times has Putin gone to the front?
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Old 6th July 2022, 02:52 PM   #1475
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
I must have missed those. Care to provide a direct source?
Don't do that. I did that and got aah'd.
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Old 6th July 2022, 03:54 PM   #1476
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
...
Funnily, there is no evidence for that. (Including any link to that alleged assessment)
...
I was posting from my phone then.
Here is the assessment of Markus Reisner, colonel of the Austrian armed forces, military historian, and leader of the research & development branch of the Theresian Military Academy, as he gave it in an interview dated July 5th on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfGs3mm8W70

Reisner has previously done several videos on the official channel of the Austrian army about the war in Ukraine - what's cooking, what are the strategic facts on the ground, what are probably war aims, how are both sides positioned to reach them. Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSDP...ic6mYE6_TfCqV7

I assume the Austrian armed forces would not let him keep posting videos there if his assessment wasn't largely shared by the professionals.

Austria is traditionally "neutral", militarily, but of course shares Western democratic and liberal values, and closely cooperates with NATO.
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Old 6th July 2022, 03:59 PM   #1477
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
There is no evidence for many of allegedly successful Russian attacks on Ukrainian military stuff.
Many of those missiles get shot down or just hit something else entirely.
As for last, doesn't look so.
Reisner disagrees with you - I take Reisner over you any day.

Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
For fun and profit:
Igor Girkin ...
You mean for LOLs.

You are, I hope, aware of the EXTREME ideological biases and political ambitions that drive Girkin?
What makes you think Girkin is in a better position to assess the war that - just about anyone? He is networking of course mostly with nationalist idiots quite a distance to the right of Putler, like himself.

If you want to be taken seriously, don't put all your betting money on the most extreme nazi around.
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Old 6th July 2022, 04:02 PM   #1478
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post
... What will you miss when it's gone?
Well, frankly, I think they have one of the nicest Anthems in the world ^^
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Old 6th July 2022, 04:07 PM   #1479
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
How does it mean they are better?
They are forcing UA to retreat

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
What are they firing all that stuff at?
Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Why should Ukraine be firing more?
Perhaps to avoid getting forced to retreat?

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Why should Ukraine do anything more than it is doing at the moment rather than when it has finished reequipping and training?
To avoid having more cities utterly destroyed.
Reequipping and training is never done.

I am not seeing any evidence that there is enough reequipping and training done to overcome the Russian superiority in blunt destructive capacity. This is, at this point, wishful thinking.
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Old 6th July 2022, 04:26 PM   #1480
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
I must have missed those. Care to provide a direct source?
Who cares what a Russian says? No one needs to pay attention to what Russians say. We know Putin wanted to take all of Ukraine from all the pretty dead Russians on the road to Kiev. It turns out dead men do tell tales.
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