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Old 14th January 2019, 05:32 PM   #201
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
erm... Are these "groups", groups of people?
LOL! It would be an interesting insight into thylacine politics otherwise.
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Old 14th January 2019, 06:14 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
So, putting those two paragraphs together, there is absolutely no possible way of knowing how far away from Port Arlington a putative/ hypothetical thylacine could have started its journey.
Such a thylacine would still have to start its journey from a location with a putative/hypothetical breeding population. Of which no plausible examples exist.

It's one thing to say that this known thylacine walked over from that known population. It's another thing to say that this hypothetical thylacine walked over from that known population. But once you have to invent hypothetical thylacine populations just to entertain the idea that a hypothetical thylacine walked over from... somewhere? I think Occam would want to start trimming entities.

Last edited by theprestige; 14th January 2019 at 06:25 PM.
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Old 14th January 2019, 06:48 PM   #203
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So uh, is there any information about the photographer? Can we see the original photo? You know, stuff like that.
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Old 14th January 2019, 11:02 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by Steve001 View Post
Actually the tail does look anatomically accurate
More or less, leaning toward more though its attachment point looks off.
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
The chances of it being a real thylacine are astronomically small.
"Astronomically small?" Not "unlikely" or "I really don't think so?" You are no scientist, sir, speaking in absolutes and leaving yourself no wiggle room Just in Case.
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Old 14th January 2019, 11:31 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
erm... Are these "groups", groups of people?
Yes. I should have been clearer. They collate reports, talk to witnesses, and do field studies.
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Old 14th January 2019, 11:38 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by The Shrike View Post
So uh, is there any information about the photographer? Can we see the original photo? You know, stuff like that.
Yeah thatís what Iím also wondering. Where are follow up photos, attempts to find foot prints, droppings and so on? Who is organising more trips to this particular area?
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Old 14th January 2019, 11:39 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by The Shrike View Post
So uh, is there any information about the photographer?......
He is a local farmer. The sighting may even have been on his own land.

Originally Posted by The Shrike View Post
........So . . . tie a sheep to a stake Jurassic Park Tyrannosaur Paddock-style, and ring the thing with game cams.....
It won't work. Thylacines were, it seems, incapable of killing a sheep, having a really weak jaw (despite the enormous, freaky, gape). Nor did they eat carrion, or even return to their own kill. So you'll need to tie a live rabbit or similar to a stake, and hope that a fox or an animals rights lawyer doesn't get there first.
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Old 15th January 2019, 12:50 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Yeah thatís what Iím also wondering. Where are follow up photos, attempts to find foot prints, droppings and so on? Who is organising more trips to this particular area?
Give him a ring. You're just up the road from him. There can't be too many Peter Groves in Clifton Springs in the local phone book.
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Old 15th January 2019, 01:49 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Give him a ring. You're just up the road from him. There can't be too many Peter Groves in Clifton Springs in the local phone book.
Thereís still a phone book? Bugger me.

I will look him up though.
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:55 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Do foxes have yellow fur and dark stripes across their hindquarters and tail reminiscent of a tiger? No? Then it probably wouldn't be called a "fox", Tasmanian or otherwise. Maybe if it was much smaller and had a short face, big ears, red fur and bushy tail, that might be the case. But it didn't have that.
It's much closer to a fox than a tiger, appearance-wise and biologically.

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What do you feed your English miniature pug-face wolf in your avatar?
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Old 15th January 2019, 04:35 AM   #211
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Give him a ring. You're just up the road from him. There can't be too many Peter Groves in Clifton Springs in the local phone book.
Maybe he walked over to Clifton Springs from somewhere else. Humans have pretty large ranges.
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Old 15th January 2019, 06:57 AM   #212
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Recent video of a young thylacine pup. https://youtu.be/3CI3imDk0dE
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Old 15th January 2019, 07:00 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by Steve001 View Post
Recent video of a young thylacine pup. https://youtu.be/3CI3imDk0dE


Fun fact about thylacines: the male had a pouch in which to hide/ protect his reproductive organs. This was a rarity even amongst marsupials. This little fella obviously hasn't grown his yet.
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Old 15th January 2019, 07:59 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
To expand on the above post, please note the words remote and near-impenetrable in the link. Is it reasonable to use these words where the Tasmanian Tiger was sighted? This question has the same answer as should the sighting be taken seriously?
No, it's a semi rural area less than 50 km from the Geelong cbd.
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Old 15th January 2019, 08:06 AM   #215
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
If it was called a Tasmanian Fox I doubt there would be so much debate. "Yeah, that's probably one of them," people would say, and that would be that. Tiger, though, well... you can't miss one of those.
In reality they looked (hopefully the past tense is eventually proven incorrect) much more like a Jackal than a Tiger, but it was the stripes what got the name...
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Old 15th January 2019, 08:13 AM   #216
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
He is a local farmer. The sighting may even have been on his own land.



It won't work. Thylacines were, it seems, incapable of killing a sheep, having a really weak jaw (despite the enormous, freaky, gape). Nor did they eat carrion, or even return to their own kill. So you'll need to tie a live rabbit or similar to a stake, and hope that a fox or an animals rights lawyer doesn't get there first.
IIRC the significantly smaller Tasmanian Devil can actually bring down much larger prey than the Thylacine can, due to having a freakishly high bite force. They usually prey on smaller stuff due to it being much less dangerous though.
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Old 15th January 2019, 08:23 AM   #217
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
It's much closer to a fox than a tiger, appearance-wise and biologically.



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No, they're exactly equally distant biologically. Foxes and Tigers both being Carnivores (That is, members of the clade Carnivora) have a much more recent common ancestor with each other than they do with the Marsupial Thylacine. The most recent common ancestor of all Carnivora lived roughly 40 million years ago, the most recent living ancestor of both Placental and Marsupial Mammals lived roughly 160-190 million years ago.
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:07 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by dropzone View Post
More or less, leaning toward more though its attachment point looks off.
"Astronomically small?" Not "unlikely" or "I really don't think so?" You are no scientist, sir, speaking in absolutes and leaving yourself no wiggle room Just in Case.
If you actually look at what I've written, I have twice used the words "not impossible, but very, very, very unlikely". I am inclined to say "no, it's impossible, they're extinct" but I'm very deliberately not using absolute language. Only a Truther deals in absolutes.
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:27 PM   #219
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This thread is begging for a poll.

I'm voting for two velociraptors in a thylacine suit.
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:27 PM   #220
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For this to be a sighting of a Tasmanian Tiger there must be several highly improbable things also to be true.
- Tasmanian Tigers exist on the mainland for the last 50,000 years. This is to keep genetic diversity high
- Still exist in isolated pockets
- None of this is documented
- One and only one wonders from an isolated pocket to where it is sighted exactly once
- No traces found
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:42 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
For this to be a sighting of a Tasmanian Tiger there must be several highly improbable things also to be true.
- Tasmanian Tigers exist on the mainland for the last 50,000 years. This is to keep genetic diversity high
- Still exist in isolated pockets
- None of this is documented
- One and only one wonders from an isolated pocket to where it is sighted exactly once
- No traces found
Well... An awful lot of Australians go missing every year...

It could be that the surviving thylacines are elite ninja pack hunters.

Anyone who actually sees one, doesn't live to tell the tale.

Maybe some of the bunyips, min-mins and drop-bears are actually thylacines, it's a weird place you know.

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Old 15th January 2019, 02:45 PM   #222
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It could be worse you know, Mexico has enormous packs of roving Chihuahuas...

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They're like land piranhas, each one takes a tiny bite, but there are so many in the pack...
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:47 PM   #223
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
It could be worse you know, Mexico has enormous packs of roving Chihuahuas...
At least piranha are quiet
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:50 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
.....- Tasmanian Tigers exist on the mainland for the last 50,000 years......
Their range covered New Guinea and all of the Australian mainland for all of the period you ask about, other than, supposedly, the last few hundred or thousand years. An intact corpse was found a while back in a cave on the Nullabor which was 3000 years old, so they were there until at least that date. The odds on that being the very last mainland thylacine ever is remarkably low, and so there is absolutely no way of knowing when (if, indeed) the last mainland thylacine died.

Further, your story doesn't allow for the reintroduction of the species onto the mainland from Tasmania, which is strongly reputed to have happened in the early 20th century when a concerned individual is said to have trapped some thylacines in Tasmania and released them in Gippsland, Victoria to give the species a chance of surviving the bounty being offered in Tassie.

My interest in thylacine was triggered as a youth living in Perth when I heard of the claimed shooting of a thylacine on an island off Queensland (early 1960s). Whilst other kids were avid dinosaur addicts, I was into thylacine (and cricket, of course). There have been a steady stream of sightings since then, from the mainland as well as Tasmania, and a few of them are particularly difficult to explain away. We used to holiday at Jurien Bay, (West Australia), and so the dozens of reports from that area alone have always captured my interest.

It may well be extinct, and the odds are very much that this sighting is of something mundane. But given thylacine's history, the vastness and emptiness of much of Australia, the regular re-appearance of "extinct" animals in Australia, and sheer childish hope and exuberance, this sighting should be investigated. We can live in hope, if not expectation.
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:51 PM   #225
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Regular re-appearance of extinct animals in Australia? I assume you have some evidence of this regularity and aren't just going from a few isolated reports.
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:54 PM   #226
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
.......It could be that the surviving thylacines are elite ninja pack hunters.........


They were thought to be lone hunters, and their feeble bite meant they probably couldn't even kill a sheep. That might be enough to see off a few Victorians, but it doesn't explain what happens to all the missing Queenslanders and West Australians.......
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Old 15th January 2019, 02:56 PM   #227
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Regular re-appearance of extinct animals in Australia? I assume you have some evidence of this regularity and aren't just going from a few isolated reports.
I'm off.......but yep. Night parrot and other birds, and one or two of those little bouncy jobs that used to cover the outback.
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Old 15th January 2019, 03:05 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'm off.......but yep. Night parrot and other birds, and one or two of those little bouncy jobs that used to cover the outback.
Well, that's authoritative.
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Old 15th January 2019, 03:34 PM   #229
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'm off.......but yep. Night parrot and other birds, and one or two of those little bouncy jobs that used to cover the outback.
erm... Stick nest rats? Bilbys? Crest-tailed mulgara? Wondiwoi tree kangaroo?

(admittedly the last one is not all that bouncy)
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Old 15th January 2019, 03:39 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
If you actually look at what I've written, I have twice used the words "not impossible, but very, very, very unlikely". I am inclined to say "no, it's impossible, they're extinct" but I'm very deliberately not using absolute language. Only a Truther deals in absolutes.
Er, you did notice that I quoted your own Post 31 before commenting, right?

I'm not much of a scientist, more of a lawyer, but you can't pin me down when you ask if the sun will rise tomorrow. Weasel Words might be my middle name.
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Old 15th January 2019, 03:44 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
These days all but the most primitive digital cameras can shoot in bursts, and most in video as well, and for something like this it's critical. These days with digital cameras, there's little reason not to take a series of shots of anything important, and the reason for not doing so becomes suspicious.
Makes me suspect they don't know how to use their cameras. "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity," or inexperience.
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Old 15th January 2019, 03:52 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
It's much closer to a fox than a tiger, appearance-wise and biologically.
You think?



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Old 15th January 2019, 03:56 PM   #233
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
It's much closer to a fox than a tiger, appearance-wise and biologically.
It's much closer to a kangaroo than it is to either.
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Old 15th January 2019, 04:16 PM   #234
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Originally Posted by Damien Evans View Post
No, they're exactly equally distant biologically. Foxes and Tigers both being Carnivores (That is, members of the clade Carnivora) have a much more recent common ancestor with each other than they do with the Marsupial Thylacine. The most recent common ancestor of all Carnivora lived roughly 40 million years ago, the most recent living ancestor of both Placental and Marsupial Mammals lived roughly 160-190 million years ago.
"Biologically"=/="evolutionarily". It could for example refer to its ecological niche as a hunter of small mammals and birds, or its ethology in terms of its social structure,territoriality etc, or its reproduction for example litter size and frequency.

Even in evolutionary terms they're not the same distance from thylacines. The relevant unit is number of generations, not years. As tigers only start to reproduce after the age of 3-4, and foxes can reproduce after less than a year, there have been fewer generations between thylacines and tigers, so they are evolutionarily closer.
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