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Old 27th December 2019, 04:50 AM   #161
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It's not 'sadly for Scotland'. Given that a majority of Scots voted to remain in the UK, a better expression would be 'luckily for Scotland'.
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Old 27th December 2019, 04:55 AM   #162
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The SNP can't and won't and don't want to hold an "unofficial" referendum. Conduct of polls is done, at a practical level, by the local authorities. I don't think any of the local authorities in Scotland is actually run by an SNP administration. The elections are by PR so coalitions are inevitable. All over Scotland the Labour, Conservative and LibDem parties have gone into coalition to deny the SNP local government control even where they have the largest number of councillors. The councils would simply refuse to administer an "illegal" referendum, end of story.

And the last thing the SNP wants is a vote which is open to sabotage Catalan-style by No voters announcing a boycott. The last thing it wants is a vote that wouldn't be recognised internationally. The SNP is prepared to carry on without independence until hell freezes over if it can't secure a legal referendum.

Whether the SNP will succeed in holding this line against popular demand is another matter.
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Old 27th December 2019, 05:26 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It's not 'sadly for Scotland'. Given that a majority of Scots voted to remain in the UK, a better expression would be 'luckily for Scotland'.
To be fair, one of the main arguments for remaining in that referendum was that it would allow Scotland to remain in the EU, which promise (like so many others) was broken by the Brexit referendum. Where the scots clearly indicated that unlike the English they did not want to leave the EU.

Such a major shift in politics would be a very valid reason to hold the referendum again as it's clear the two countries have different ideas on how to go forward now.
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Old 27th December 2019, 05:32 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It's not 'sadly for Scotland'. Given that a majority of Scots voted to remain in the UK, a better expression would be 'luckily for Scotland'.
That is called an opinion.

I was not for Scottish independence last time however given the current circumstances I would support Scottish, Welsh, Cornish, Irish, the black country, Tyne and Wear wanting to split away from the UK.

So again, sadly for Scotland the UK is going to remain for at least the next 5 years.
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Old 27th December 2019, 05:34 AM   #165
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I'm inclined to think you may be right, but there's a lot going on here and circumstances may overtake that assessment.

(Some of us realised in 2013-14 that this current situation was a fairly likely consequence of a No vote, but we were shouted down at the time. Sigh.)
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Old 27th December 2019, 01:51 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I'm not familiar enough with the Scottish Independence movement's intent. Would an independent Scotland want to stay in NATO? Being as Scotland is as described, key to any war between NATO and Russia, I'm not sure what choice it would have.
There is considerable debate within the SNP about NATO membership (literally) but current policy is to stay/join.
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Old 27th December 2019, 01:53 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
What would the impact of Scotland holding a referendum without the consent of the British Parliament? I realize it wouldn't be binding but it would certainly not go unnoticed if there was a vote for independence.
Normally it would be unheard of but given the bolloxing around of the last few years? Who knows.

The Brexit referendum wasn't binding either.
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Old 27th December 2019, 01:57 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
That is called an opinion.

I was not for Scottish independence last time however given the current circumstances I would support Scottish, Welsh, Cornish, Irish, the black country, Tyne and Wear wanting to split away from the UK.

So again, sadly for Scotland the UK is going to remain for at least the next 5 years.
What about London?
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Old 27th December 2019, 04:30 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
To be fair, one of the main arguments for remaining in that referendum was that it would allow Scotland to remain in the EU, which promise (like so many others) was broken by the Brexit referendum. Where the scots clearly indicated that unlike the English they did not want to leave the EU.

Such a major shift in politics would be a very valid reason to hold the referendum again as it's clear the two countries have different ideas on how to go forward now.


How on Earth could such a promise ever have been made - let alone accepted - when a) it wasn't even known who would be in government within nine months of the Scottish Independence referendum, and b) a referendum on EU membership (which had long been in the air, and was certainly a known possibility at the time of the Scottish Independence referendum) could - for rather obvious reasons - not guarantee an outcome which kept the UK within the EU?


ETA: And if a major rationale for holding another Scottish Independence referendum is that an independent Scotland would be able to join the EU...... then how can it have been an argument just five years ago (in the last Scottish Independence referendum) that remaining within the UK would "allow Scotland to remain within the EU" - with the clear inference that Scotland splitting away from the UK would therefore not allow Scotland to remain within the EU (or at the very least, would make if far more difficult/improbable for Scotland to remain within the EU).

I had little doubt in 2014 - just as I have little doubt today - that an independent Scotland would be admitted into the EU, subject to certain conditions being fulfilled. But those conditions would involve things such as sovereign currency, and the nature and size of national debt. Plus, it's a given that if Scotland did become independent from the rest of the UK, the disentanglement of Scotland would be a hideously complicated process which might well end up taking several years. It'd be a bumper payday for lawyers and bankers - not so much for the peoples of both entities.....

Last edited by LondonJohn; 27th December 2019 at 04:39 PM.
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Old 28th December 2019, 06:08 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Depends on the turnout and result.

A thumping pro-independence result based on relatively low turnout (like in Catalonia) would likely just muddy the waters with the UK government claiming that it's just a few zealots and the SNP claiming a clear mandate for independence. I hope the UK government wouldn't botch the aftermath of any such vote as badly as the Spanish, but I wouldn't bet on it.

A more uncomfortable position would be a clear pro-independence vote based on a reasonably high turnout. In that case I reckon that the government would claim that there was no independence mandate unless there was a majority (or supermajority) of those entitled to vote, rather than those who actually voted - which would be rich considering how 52/48 (of under 70%) is a clear Brexit mandate from a non-binding referendum .

IMO a Conservative government would simply refuse to recognise the result of any such referendum (because it had been called illegally) and that illegal action would be used as a reason to refuse future independence referendum requests.
I wonder whether (as happens in Australia for General Elections) referenda should have compulsory voting?
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Old 28th December 2019, 10:02 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
ETA: And if a major rationale for holding another Scottish Independence referendum is that an independent Scotland would be able to join the EU...... then how can it have been an argument just five years ago (in the last Scottish Independence referendum) that remaining within the UK would "allow Scotland to remain within the EU" - with the clear inference that Scotland splitting away from the UK would therefore not allow Scotland to remain within the EU (or at the very least, would make if far more difficult/improbable for Scotland to remain within the EU).
It was argued that an independent Scotland would be out of the EU by default, and would have to apply for membership again, so the Union would represent the best way for Scotland to stay in Europe. I'm not sure what the EU's stance on this is (and was), but having been told to vote 'no' to remain in the EU and then dragged out of it when they did just that, Scotland certainly deserves another independence referendum.
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Old 28th December 2019, 10:16 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I wonder whether (as happens in Australia for General Elections) referenda should have compulsory voting?
Only if there's a "Don't know or don't care" option. Oh, and elections between people should always include "None of the Above".
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Old 28th December 2019, 01:11 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Only if there's a "Don't know or don't care" option. Oh, and elections between people should always include "None of the Above".
That could be interesting. If "None of the above" wins a majority, then you could hold the elections again, and nobody on the ballot can run again for that election.
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Old 28th December 2019, 02:07 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Only if there's a "Don't know or don't care" option. Oh, and elections between people should always include "None of the Above".
"No Award".
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Old 29th December 2019, 08:23 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
To be fair, one of the main arguments for remaining in that referendum was that it would allow Scotland to remain in the EU, which promise (like so many others) was broken by the Brexit referendum. Where the scots clearly indicated that unlike the English they did not want to leave the EU.

Such a major shift in politics would be a very valid reason to hold the referendum again as it's clear the two countries have different ideas on how to go forward now.
It wasn’t a “broken promise”! The electorate voted to leave the EU. They didn’t make any promises.
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Old 29th December 2019, 11:33 PM   #176
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Hey Scotland, Glad you voted to stay in the E.U.K, sadly we all have now voted to leave the E.U and you are coming with us.

E.U Leavers who do not want to give Scotland a fresh chance to leave the U.K now that all the cards are on the table are Hypocrites.
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Old 30th December 2019, 02:46 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Only if there's a "Don't know or don't care" option. Oh, and elections between people should always include "None of the Above".
My understanding is that in Australia you have to turn up to vote but you do not have to indicate a preference, or you can 'destroy' your voting paper, so yes there is an 'abstain' option.

Having considered the options and consequences of recent referenda I would favour compulsory voting, with an abstain option, and a constitutional change would require an absolute majority of votes cast, ie yes > (no + abstain). A relative majority ie Yes > No but < (No + abstain) would inform the option for a repeat referendum and review of the option.

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Old 30th December 2019, 02:53 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by Hungry81 View Post
Hey Scotland, Glad you voted to stay in the E.U.K, sadly we all have now voted to leave the E.U and you are coming with us.

E.U Leavers who do not want to give Scotland a fresh chance to leave the U.K now that all the cards are on the table are Hypocrites.
No they would argue they are democrats. Scotland voted to be part of the UK, the UK voted to leave the EU. Democracies work on the minority accepting the decision of the majority, it is unusual for minorities to say they are not bound by the majority decision because they have a different view.

There is certainly a view that says that the people must continue to vote until they vote the correct way.

Current opinion polls do not suggest a majority in Scotland for independence from the UK as yet. One could say that there appears to an order of preference 1) in UK and EU, 2) In UK out of EU 3) Out of UK and EU (but with possibility of joining EU, with indeterminate relationship with England - hard border?).
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Old 30th December 2019, 04:05 AM   #179
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And it does seem to pass by a lot of people but 38% of folk residing in Scotland voted to leave the EU.
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Old 30th December 2019, 04:09 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
And it does seem to pass by a lot of people but 38% of folk residing in Scotland voted to leave the EU.
It passes them by because it isn't true. Around 18% of people residing in Scotland voted to leave the EU.
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Old 30th December 2019, 06:54 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post
It passes them by because it isn't true. Around 18% of people residing in Scotland voted to leave the EU.


Sorry I should of course have said of those who voted, equally of course it doesn't alter the point I made.
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Old 30th December 2019, 09:41 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
No they would argue they are democrats. Scotland voted to be part of the UK, the UK voted to leave the EU. Democracies work on the minority accepting the decision of the majority, it is unusual for minorities to say they are not bound by the majority decision because they have a different view.

There is certainly a view that says that the people must continue to vote until they vote the correct way.
If you are doing something materially different from what people you promised when in the campaign voted, a new vote is warranted.

You don’t get to say “remaining in the UK will ensure Scotland remains in the EU” and then force Scotland to leave the EU because it’s part of the UK. Likewise you don’t get to promise a deal to remain part of the European market is a condition for Brexit and then leave the EU without a deal. This in not in keeping with anything resembling democratic principles. If you hold a new vote and people are fine with the new conditions, great, but you can’t hold onto the original “result” if you are not doing the things you promised at the time.
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Old 30th December 2019, 10:34 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
If you are doing something materially different from what people you promised when in the campaign voted, a new vote is warranted.



You don’t get to say “remaining in the UK will ensure Scotland remains in the EU” and then force Scotland to leave the EU because it’s part of the UK. Likewise you don’t get to promise a deal to remain part of the European market is a condition for Brexit and then leave the EU without a deal. This in not in keeping with anything resembling democratic principles. If you hold a new vote and people are fine with the new conditions, great, but you can’t hold onto the original “result” if you are not doing the things you promised at the time.


What was said is that the SNP claim that Scotland would still be in the EU if it broke up the UK was not true. And that hasn't changed. Scotland would have had to apply for membership of the EU if it wanted to join the EU. In regards to independence it is still in the same position, I.e. If Scotland breaks up the UK it will still have to apply to join the EU.
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Old 30th December 2019, 10:38 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
If you are doing something materially different from what people you promised when in the campaign voted, a new vote is warranted.

You don’t get to say “remaining in the UK will ensure Scotland remains in the EU” and then force Scotland to leave the EU because it’s part of the UK. Likewise you don’t get to promise a deal to remain part of the European market is a condition for Brexit and then leave the EU without a deal. This in not in keeping with anything resembling democratic principles. If you hold a new vote and people are fine with the new conditions, great, but you can’t hold onto the original “result” if you are not doing the things you promised at the time.
Are you saying that in the Scottish Referendum that pro-unionists promised to ignore the brexit referendum if it went leave?
As I recall when the Scottish Referendum took place people knew there would be a UK referendum on brexit and that it was possible that people would vote to leave.
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Old 31st December 2019, 06:55 AM   #185
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Are you saying that in the Scottish Referendum that pro-unionists promised to ignore the brexit referendum if it went leave?
As I recall when the Scottish Referendum took place people knew there would be a UK referendum on brexit and that it was possible that people would vote to leave.
People would have used their best guess at the time but the presumption seems to be that what was being presented to voters is that remaining part of the UK was the best way to remain part of the EU. The point is that there is no need to guess, just hold another referendum so people can properly account for the new information and find out for sure.
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Old 31st December 2019, 07:25 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
People would have used their best guess at the time but the presumption seems to be that what was being presented to voters is that remaining part of the UK was the best way to remain part of the EU. The point is that there is no need to guess, just hold another referendum so people can properly account for the new information and find out for sure.
It was the only way Scotland could be in the EU if it broke away. That still stands. Indeed in a way one would think that the SNP would be pleased with the UK leaving the EU, it means if another Scottish referendum does take place the fear that some had about a breakaway Scotland and it not being any longer part of the EU is no longer in play.
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Old 31st December 2019, 03:15 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Indeed in a way one would think that the SNP would be pleased with the UK leaving the EU, it means if another Scottish referendum does take place the fear that some had about a breakaway Scotland and it not being any longer part of the EU is no longer in play.
A well known independence blogger voted Leave for that very reason. Next time he complains Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against its will, I hope someone reminds him that's exactly what he voted for.
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Old 3rd January 2020, 10:27 AM   #188
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https://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...p-mp-1-5069429

"Two veteran left-wing SNP politicians have ruled out any chance of a second independence referendum this year.

Kenny MacAskill, who served as Justice Secretary in Alex Salmond's cabinet and was just elected as MP for East Lothian, said the success of a drive by Nicola Sturgeon for a second vote on independence in 2020 was "slim", while former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars, said Ms Sturgeon was leading independence activists "up the garden path".
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Old 14th January 2020, 02:40 PM   #189
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Johnson has replied. Scottish Parliament isn't getting the power to have a referendum on independence.

I still think this was a rare foot wrong for the SNP, I'm still sure they thought they'd be kingmaker.

ETA BBC News - Scottish independence: Johnson rejects Sturgeon's indyref2 demand
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-51106796
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Old 14th January 2020, 04:15 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Johnson has replied. Scottish Parliament isn't getting the power to have a referendum on independence.

I still think this was a rare foot wrong for the SNP, I'm still sure they thought they'd be kingmaker.

ETA BBC News - Scottish independence: Johnson rejects Sturgeon's indyref2 demand
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-51106796
Without the SNP joining Boris and pushing for the election the Tories would not have the parliamentary majority they currently do. A cock up on their part. They could have sold their support for a referendum vote or other benefits. All they get now as thanks is 5 years of being screwed. Lesson to be learned.
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Old 15th January 2020, 02:10 PM   #191
Rolfe
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It's not as if this wasn't clearly foreseen and warned about by a lot of people. The suspicion that the SNP quite likes the current set-up and isn't in a hurry to change anything is crystallising in quite a few minds.
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Old 16th January 2020, 01:52 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It's not as if this wasn't clearly foreseen and warned about by a lot of people. The suspicion that the SNP quite likes the current set-up and isn't in a hurry to change anything is crystallising in quite a few minds.
I know that politically they're at the complete opposite end of the spectrum, but does this mirror UKIP/Brexit Party Ltd ? What they wanted was to continue to be a protest party within the EU, they didn't actually want to have to go through the uncomfortable process of Brexit.
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Old 16th January 2020, 03:25 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It's not as if this wasn't clearly foreseen and warned about by a lot of people. The suspicion that the SNP quite likes the current set-up and isn't in a hurry to change anything is crystallising in quite a few minds.
I can see how being in opposition rather than control can help a Party, despite Labour's best efforts to prove otherwise. I hoped that they may take a 'what's better for the country?" view.
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