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Tags Boris Johnson , Nigel Farage , uk elections , uk politics

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Old 30th October 2019, 03:05 AM   #1
The Don
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UK - December 2019 General Election

Thought we should have a thread about this.

Seems that the Conservative Manifesto is being written by:

Quote:
a lobbyist for Facebook, Amazon and fracking company Caudrilla
According to the Grauniad.

If there was any doubt about what is likely to happen in the (IMO almost certain) event of a Conservative majority.
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Old 30th October 2019, 03:16 AM   #2
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Shame 16 year olds and EU nationals will not be voting after all.
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Old 30th October 2019, 03:23 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Shame 16 year olds and EU nationals will not be voting after all.
Doesn't the House of Lords get a crack at that today?

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Old 30th October 2019, 03:31 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Doesn't the House of Lords get a crack at that today?

Dave
In theory yes. However most pundits are suggesting that the bill will make it through the Lords largely unchanged.
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Old 30th October 2019, 03:51 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In theory yes. However most pundits are suggesting that the bill will make it through the Lords largely unchanged.
Yeah, it seems unlikely that they'll do anything to it, but at the moment virtually anything could happen.

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Old 30th October 2019, 07:17 AM   #6
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From the Brexit thread:

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Which makes the Labour promise for free personal care for all so disappointing. Well off pensioners will get to keep their assets and pass them on to their children and grandchildren allowing them to buy houses in areas with good schools, subsidise their tertiary education, ease their progress into the job market and so on.

The again, even if there is reasonable social mobility, high levels of income and wealth inequality is still a bad thing. If only 10% of people earn a living wage then it really doesn't matter too much whether that 10% are chosen by merit, chance or birth, 90% of the population are still screwed.
Never forget the disgust many had for how they had to get the NHS started, Bevan's "by stuffing the doctors’ mouths with gold". We can't let the perfect stand in the way of the good. We need to help hundreds of thousands of people without assets to pass onto their children receive fantastic care. Yes it might be that we have to also pay for those that could well afford their own care. But which would you have it, the poor continuing to receive care - if at all - of a very low quality just so the rich don't get anything?
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Old 30th October 2019, 07:32 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Never forget the disgust many had for how they had to get the NHS started, Bevan's "by stuffing the doctors’ mouths with gold". We can't let the perfect stand in the way of the good. We need to help hundreds of thousands of people without assets to pass onto their children receive fantastic care. Yes it might be that we have to also pay for those that could well afford their own care. But which would you have it, the poor continuing to receive care - if at all - of a very low quality just so the rich don't get anything?
Given life expectancies and whatnot, it'll be the middle classes who benefit disproportionately. There's no clear indication to me that the care received will necessarily be better than today's, just that the cost will be borne by the state, not the individual.

If the intention is to provide the best care to those who need it most but who can afford it least, there are better ways to do that than by providing free care to all.
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Old 30th October 2019, 07:52 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Thought we should have a thread about this.

Seems that the Conservative Manifesto is being written by:

According to the Grauniad.

If there was any doubt about what is likely to happen in the (IMO almost certain) event of a Conservative majority.
Largest party for sure, but I wouldn't bet heavily on their getting an overall majority. Current bookies' odds are 1.83 overall Con majority, 2.0 no overall majority.

And if the Brexit party go hard at it while Lab and Lib voters vote tactically heavily (as I believe they will - we Bs certainly intend to) there could be quite an upset, with Lab at least being in the theoretical position to form a coalition government.
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Old 30th October 2019, 07:52 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Given life expectancies and whatnot, it'll be the middle classes who benefit disproportionately. There's no clear indication to me that the care received will necessarily be better than today's, just that the cost will be borne by the state, not the individual.

If the intention is to provide the best care to those who need it most but who can afford it least, there are better ways to do that than by providing free care to all.
And get into government so you can enact these better ways?
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Old 30th October 2019, 07:59 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
And get into government so you can enact these better ways?
You envisage a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party getting into government - I don't.
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:02 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Largest party for sure, but I wouldn't bet heavily on their getting an overall majority. Current bookies' odds are 1.83 overall Con majority, 2.0 no overall majority.

And if the Brexit party go hard at it while Lab and Lib voters vote tactically heavily (as I believe they will - we Bs certainly intend to) there could be quite an upset, with Lab at least being in the theoretical position to form a coalition government.
I don't think that the Brexit Party will go hard at it.

Successful tactical voting could be a possibility - though IMO a remote one.

OTOH there are people like me who cannot vote Labour until Labour change their Brexit policy.
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:14 AM   #12
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I will get to waste my vote by voting Green again. Will never vote Tory or Brexit, and won't vote Lib Dem because they branded me the same as Farage, not voting Labour either as they want to end FoM. So whoopdedoo for FPTP I might as well not bother.
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:15 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Given life expectancies and whatnot, it'll be the middle classes who benefit disproportionately. There's no clear indication to me that the care received will necessarily be better than today's, just that the cost will be borne by the state, not the individual.

If the intention is to provide the best care to those who need it most but who can afford it least, there are better ways to do that than by providing free care to all.
I'm sure there are plenty of lessons that could be learned from Scotland, where Free Personal Care has been in place for a number of years. I'm no longer directly involved, and I haven't read any analysis on the situation for a while, but my recollection from when I was working there was that it was a fine principle, and had a very direct impact on a lot of people, but that the long-term future was unsustainable with an aging population and raised expectations. Some sort of means-tested process is, I think, almost inevitable, though it can be something of a nightmare to administrate.
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:17 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I will get to waste my vote by voting Green again. Will never vote Tory or Brexit, and won't vote Lib Dem because they branded me the same as Farage, not voting Labour either as they want to end FoM. So whoopdedoo for FPTP I might as well not bother.
How so ?
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:24 AM   #15
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The Labour guy in our constituency is very nice, and he beat the Lib-Dem last time around, so he might get my (largely tactical) vote. And my Tory MP lost the whip a while back for using the phrase, 'n- in a woodpile' during a public meeting.
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:24 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
How so ?
Jo Swinson thinks that the people who support Scottish Independence are just the same as the narrow minded bigots who support UKIP and Brexit Party.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/l...ence-lzzcpmmvg

That being the case she can do one.

ETA Not that it will matter it's a safe Tory seat anyway. Incumbent took over 60% of the vote last time.
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:27 AM   #17
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The usual polling pattern in recent elections has been to gradually narrow the margin of whichever party starts out in the lead, until approaching election day it is "too close to call." I wonder if this one will be different?

There's an argument that opinion polls should be banned during any election campaign, so that those polls can't influence voters. The idea is that people would then have to vote based on their own personal opinion. Banning opinion polls would reduce the scope for tactical voting and the "negative feedback loop" of voters not bothering to vote because they think their chosen candidate is already winning easily.
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:31 AM   #18
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My vote never makes any difference (except in referendums) - I live in one of the safest seats in the country. None of the parties ever put any effort into campaigning in this constituency - they all know the result is a foregone conclusion.

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Old 30th October 2019, 08:36 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Jo Swinson thinks that the people who support Scottish Independence are just the same as the narrow minded bigots who support UKIP and Brexit Party.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/l...ence-lzzcpmmvg

That being the case she can do one.

ETA Not that it will matter it's a safe Tory seat anyway. Incumbent took over 60% of the vote last time.
Fair enough.

It's almost certain that my MP will be reelected, he got over 50% of the vote last time. Labour held the seat from 1997-2005 but I cannot see a Corbynite Labour Party tempting moderate Remain-supporting Conservatives to vote for them and the LibDems, Plaid and Greens are all in low single figures percent.

The constituency was 50/50 in the Brexit referendum but that reflects quite a lot of Remain supporting Conservatives who might just possibly have voted for New Labour but wouldn't consider voting for 1970s Labour under Corbyn.

I honestly think that the pundits have got it completely wrong. The Brexit Party will keep their heads down, Labour will lose a lot of support because of Corbyn and their Brexit stance, the LibDems and Greens may pick up a lot of votes, but few if any seats and the result could easily be a Conservative majority of 100+.
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Old 30th October 2019, 08:44 AM   #20
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Which, if any, of the MPs that have changed parties (or left their original party to become independent) are likely to be re-elected? I know that some of them are not standing or are retiring. Are those that are standing, all standing in their existing constituencies?

I would be happy to see the lot of them lose their jobs. I don't think it should be legal to be elected on one party's manifesto and then abandon that party to become independent, or worse, change to a different party, without holding a mandatory by election.

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Old 30th October 2019, 08:58 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Which, if any, of the MPs that have changed parties (or left their original party to become independent) are likely to be re-elected? I know that some of them are not standing or are retiring. Are those that are standing, all standing in their existing constituencies?

I would be happy to see the lot of them lose their jobs. I don't think it should be legal to be elected on one party's manifesto and then abandon that party to become independent, or worse, change to a different party, without holding a mandatory by election.
In the UK you vote for a MP not a political party.
In this day and age people have their whip withdrawn for one vote against Brexit by someone who themselves votes along with his ERG colleagues 9 times against Brexit and the will of the people.TM

I suspect the law you are suggesting would result in people not resigning but defying the party whip and the election manifesto like the ERG regularly did. You would then have to kick them out.

Are you suggesting that your law should apply to people kicked out of a party as well?

I don't recall these objections from you when MPs defected to UKIP but am happy for you to provide links showing otherwise.

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Old 30th October 2019, 09:34 AM   #22
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Momentum are making it clear that they would rather retain ideological purity than prevent a Conservative government.

Quote:
Laura Parker, national co-ordinator of Momentum, the grassroots organisation made up of Labour supporters, warned Labour supporters about voting tactically on 12 December.
It's Militant all over again and we know how well that served the Labour Party, and the country, for the best part of two decades
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Old 30th October 2019, 09:43 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
I don't recall these objections from you when MPs defected to UKIP but am happy for you to provide links showing otherwise.
The only MPs that ever did that DID stand for re-election, showing how they really were "honourable" compared to all the other scum MPs that wouldn't think of doing such a thing.

Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless were both re-elected as UKIP MPs at the by-elections they called, even though they weren't required by law to do so.

I don't expect you'll apologise for your error though.

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Old 30th October 2019, 10:05 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Jo Swinson thinks that the people who support Scottish Independence are just the same as the narrow minded bigots who support UKIP and Brexit Party.
It is a fact that there are elements within the Scottish nationalist movement that are deeply racist, with a total hatred of the English. Most of them are not like that though - in the same way that most supporters of the Brexit party are not narrow minded bigots.

It's the Lib Dems themselves that are most bigoted. I find offensive their attitude that everyone who doesn't support their loony left-wing ideals must be irrational, racist or uncaring.
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Old 30th October 2019, 11:16 AM   #25
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[quote=ceptimus;12875212]It is a fact that there are elements within the Scottish nationalist movement that are deeply racist,with a total hatred of the English [quote]

Is it? Within the SNP?

Quote:
Most of them are not like that though - in the same way that most supporters of the Brexit party are not narrow minded bigots.
Yeah, er.. no.

Quote:
It's the Lib Dems themselves that are most bigoted. I find offensive their attitude that everyone who doesn't support their loony left-wing ideals must be irrational, racist or uncaring.
The Lib Dems are centre-right. Do you actually follow politics or watch the news or understand anything at all?
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Old 30th October 2019, 11:17 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The only MPs that ever did that DID stand for re-election, showing how they really were "honourable" compared to all the other scum MPs that wouldn't think of doing such a thing.

Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless were both re-elected as UKIP MPs at the by-elections they called, even though they weren't required by law to do so.

I don't expect you'll apologise for your error though.
You are quite right my bad. I was confusing them with the 14 UKIP MEPs who joined the Brexit party after being elected.

Also with the 4 UKIP Welsh Assembly members who left UKIP and joined the brexit party, one of whom was Mark Reckless.

Do you think these Brexit party members are scum or do you reserve such descriptions for those you disagree with?

Also you think scum is appropriate terminology. I appreciate that many on your side use it. Wasn't something similar shouted by the murderer of Jo Cox?

I would hope we could debate without dehumanising people we disagree with.
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Old 30th October 2019, 11:33 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Momentum are making it clear that they would rather retain ideological purity than prevent a Conservative government.



It's Militant all over again and we know how well that served the Labour Party, and the country, for the best part of two decades
If they don't want tactical voting that will be an improvement on the last election where Labour were telling Scottish voters to vote Tory to get the SNP out.
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Old 30th October 2019, 11:43 AM   #28
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1189543862781513729

Quote:
Big surge in 18-34-year-olds registering to vote in the last 24 hours
Image embedded in tweet.
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Old 30th October 2019, 11:55 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Largest party for sure, but I wouldn't bet heavily on their getting an overall majority. Current bookies' odds are 1.83 overall Con majority, 2.0 no overall majority.
All betting odds tell you is firstly how bookies think people will bet, and then how people are betting.
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Old 30th October 2019, 11:58 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I don't think that the Brexit Party will go hard at it.

Successful tactical voting could be a possibility - though IMO a remote one.

OTOH there are people like me who cannot vote Labour until Labour change their Brexit policy.
If you're against Brexit, then the only thing to do is to vote for whoever in your constituency is the Conservative candidate's biggest competition. Tactical voting is the only way that preventing Brexit is at all possible.

In most constituencies that means voting for Labour, regardless of what you think about anything else about them.
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Old 30th October 2019, 12:02 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
If you're against Brexit, then the only thing to do is to vote for whoever in your constituency is the Conservative candidate's biggest competition. Tactical voting is the only way that preventing Brexit is at all possible.

In most constituencies that means voting for Labour, regardless of what you think about anything else about them.
Except that Labour is pro-Brexit. I have no confidence that Corbyn won't renege on the second referendum.
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Old 30th October 2019, 01:43 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
All betting odds tell you is firstly how bookies think people will bet, and then how people are betting.
Yes, but they take good advice from informed sources before setting the odds in the first place, otherwise they might get stuffed in the first wave of betting.
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Old 30th October 2019, 03:38 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Except that Labour is pro-Brexit. I have no confidence that Corbyn won't renege on the second referendum.
Personally I'd take 'May well renege' against 'Guaranteed to go for Brexit no matter what'.
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Old 30th October 2019, 03:56 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It is a fact that there are elements within the Scottish nationalist movement that are deeply racist, with a total hatred of the English. Most of them are not like that though - in the same way that most supporters of the Brexit party are not narrow minded bigots.

It's the Lib Dems themselves that are most bigoted. I find offensive their attitude that everyone who doesn't support their loony left-wing ideals must be irrational, racist or uncaring.
My irony meter just blew up with this coming from a fanatic Brexit supporter....
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Old 30th October 2019, 03:58 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
If they don't want tactical voting that will be an improvement on the last election where Labour were telling Scottish voters to vote Tory to get the SNP out.
You can throw away your vote in a brave Anti Establishment way, or actually vote in a way that might accomplish something.
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Old 30th October 2019, 03:59 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Momentum are making it clear that they would rather retain ideological purity than prevent a Conservative government.



It's Militant all over again and we know how well that served the Labour Party, and the country, for the best part of two decades
Fanantics never learn, do they?
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
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Old 30th October 2019, 04:00 PM   #37
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If it does not turn out well for Labor, then maybe, finally, they will see that Corbyn is a horrid leader for Labor.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
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Old 30th October 2019, 04:02 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
You are quite right my bad. I was confusing them with the 14 UKIP MEPs who joined the Brexit party after being elected.

Also with the 4 UKIP Welsh Assembly members who left UKIP and joined the brexit party, one of whom was Mark Reckless.

Do you think these Brexit party members are scum or do you reserve such descriptions for those you disagree with?

Also you think scum is appropriate terminology. I appreciate that many on your side use it. Wasn't something similar shouted by the murderer of Jo Cox?

I would hope we could debate without dehumanising people we disagree with.
It's the latest left wing plot - an attempt to stop people using the English language. Words like 'scum' exist because they're good descriptive useful words. There are many MPs right now that richly deserve the epithet. I live in hope that many of them will lose their privileged positions and well paid jobs in the forthcoming election.
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Old 30th October 2019, 04:04 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
My irony meter just blew up with this coming from a fanatic Brexit supporter....
It's a shame you can't read whole posts before knee-jerk reacting. I feel sorry for you.
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Old 30th October 2019, 04:09 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
The Lib Dems are centre-right. Do you actually follow politics or watch the news or understand anything at all?
What a moronic thing to say. I have a greater understanding of politics than most other posters here - certainly greater than you.
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