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Tags Boris Johnson , Nigel Farage , uk elections , uk politics

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Old 1st November 2019, 06:13 AM   #121
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
I am expecting to hear over the next few weeks that voting for the Tories will lead to a hard brexit, which will be followed by Scotland having indy ref 2 and leaving the union.
How realistic is that second threat if the first condition is met. Hasn't Ireland shown us, and the SNP arguments demonstrated that an independent Scotland in the EU would need a hard border somewhere north of Hadrian's wall? Would Scots really choose that option? Is indy ref 2 an empty threat as far as this campaign is concerned?
Not seeing that, TBH. The whole issue over the Irish border stems from the fact that somewhat over half (currently) of its population feel it should remain in the UK, and somewhat less than half (currently) that it should become part of the Republic of Ireland, and that these two factions have in the past come into violent conflict with covert support from the state each respectively wants to be part of. A hard border either within Ireland or in the Irish Sea is therefore a red rag to one side or the other because it supports the other side's plan of action. A hard Scottish border wouldn't have the same issue because it wouldn't involve Scotland becoming part of a different state that a large part of its population are prepared to kill or die to prevent it becoming part of; it would just involve Scotland becoming an independent country much like any other independent country.

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Old 1st November 2019, 06:18 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A charismatic and competent left-winger without the taint of historical support for the IRA an anti-Semitism might stand a chance.

I don't have a problem with a centreist leader as long as the party gets to deliver progressive policies. It's be the reverse of the Conservatives, promise anodyne things but when in government, deliver something rather different.

People are voting against their best interests but that's because they've believed the hype that the EU and immigrants are responsible for all the ills in society.
I don't see anyone charismatic and competent enough to stand a chance against the right wing press if they actually come with left-wing policies they will be branded a Marxist throwback just like Corbyn. If they can't get them on supporting terrorists, they will get them on eating a bacon sandwich, being a bit Northern, or driving a car. If they can't find anything they will just make something up.

People believe what they are told by the Mail and the Sun and the Express that's the problem and nothing is going to change until that changes.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:19 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Not seeing that, TBH. The whole issue over the Irish border stems from the fact that somewhat over half (currently) of its population feel it should remain in the UK, and somewhat less than half (currently) that it should become part of the Republic of Ireland, and that these two factions have in the past come into violent conflict with covert support from the state each respectively wants to be part of. A hard border either within Ireland or in the Irish Sea is therefore a red rag to one side or the other because it supports the other side's plan of action. A hard Scottish border wouldn't have the same issue because it wouldn't involve Scotland becoming part of a different state that a large part of its population are prepared to kill or die to prevent it becoming part of; it would just involve Scotland becoming an independent country much like any other independent country.

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I was't referring to unionists and separatists taking up arms rather that there would need to be customs checks and import taxes paid on all* goods crossing the England Scotland border,




*Bar a literal handful
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:19 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Didn't you say that you weren't going to vote? I'm not sure I see a huge amount of difference between voting against your own self-interest and abstaining so that other people can vote against your self-interest for you.
I said I am going to vote Green if they stand, but that my vote won't make the slightest bit of difference under FPTP.

I have no time for these people who get on their high horse about voting as if that's the key to making a difference.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:36 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
As I expected, Nigel Farage wants an electoral pact with the Conservatives (which IMO they will enthusiastically agree to) because he doesn't want power, he wants money and influence and having a handful of MPs and the gratitude of the Conservative MP is a great way to achieve that.

Conservative Remainers (like two of the members of Wyld Bird Seed) will vote Conservative and IMO this news means that the Conservative majority could easily be 150-200
Farage is demanding the Tories drop the Brexit agreement and go for a 'clean break' as condition of a pact.
He wants the Tories to become the Brexit Party.
It's not going to happen.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:36 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
I was't referring to unionists and separatists taking up arms rather that there would need to be customs checks and import taxes paid on all* goods crossing the England Scotland border,




*Bar a literal handful
What happened to the 'technological solutions'?
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:38 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
What happened to the 'technological solutions'?
It turns out they only apply to consignments carried by pack unicorn.

Dave
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:39 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Farage is demanding the Tories drop the Brexit agreement and go for a 'clean break' as condition of a pact.
He wants the Tories to become the Brexit Party.
It's not going to happen.
That's good, because if the Tories don't go for it then the Brexit Party will clip as many votes off them as they can manage, and if they do go for it then I suspect they'll be too extreme for a lot of Brexit supporters who'll just haveto vote Labour.

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Old 1st November 2019, 06:40 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It can work. Here in Finland there is a capped limit to how much the elderly need to contribute towards 24/7 care (iirc it is circa 600-700 pa max for a hospital bed in a personal room). Thus the rich get to keep their assets and pass it on to the next generation. How is this done, people do pay a higher percentage in income tax but then the average state pension is 2,400 pcm (based on lifetime earnings), university education is free and no-one need worry if they are pregnant or ill as new parents get up to three years leave with their job kept safe.

It's a new SDP government in place but had been a right wing coalition and the True Finns (perusuomalaiset, persut for short) are even more keen on a welfare state for all despite being right wing. So not even a left wing idea.

So there are different models. Even if care for the elderly is eased, it doesn't necessarily follow that the better off are penalised.
I love the Nordic countries. They seem easily the closest to having got the balance right between market and state.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:43 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I remember arguing vociferously for a Yes in that referendum, not on the grounds that AV was a good idea, but on the grounds that if it was a No vote we'd be told that the British people had ratified FPTP and that was decided, forever.

But in reality (and I've seen the figures worked through somewhere), AV is even more inclined to favour the "big two" and wouldn't have helped in the slightest. It was an absolute stroke of genius of Cameron to substitute "PR" with an option that's nothing like PR and could be knocked over like an Aunt Sally.
I only remember it vaguely but I do remember thinking 'Damn, that's not PR, that's some rubbish alternative designed to lose the vote' when it came out and wondering how the hell they'd got away with limiting it that way. Total con.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:49 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Farage is demanding the Tories drop the Brexit agreement and go for a 'clean break' as condition of a pact.
He wants the Tories to become the Brexit Party.
It's not going to happen.
The thing is of course you have to differentiate between what these people say they want, what they actually want, what is within the realms of possibility and what will actually happen.

The handlers and funders of Farage, Bojo, Trump etc call the shots. So if they don't want Brexit Party spoilers competing with Tories or vice versa it won't happen.

BP will focus on Labour seats quite probably and maybe a few remainer Tories or rebels.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:54 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The only people who think he is a horrid leader are the non-dom tabloid press, Tories and LibDems.

Funny dat.
Not true. I know plenty of Labour supporters (I live in one of the safest Labour seats in the country) who don't like him.

I'm a centrist chameleon - I have voted, Tory, Labour, LibDem and Green depending on candidate and party policies. I have a smidgen of respect for Corbyn in that he's one of a vanishingly few politicians who seems to believe in what he stands for (though he was worryingly inept about the whole stance on Brexit as he clearly hates the EU but just for completely different reasons to the Tories) - in a similar way to which I had enormous respect for Tony Benn, even though I disagreed with almost all his views, as he stuck to his principles and beliefs. However, I think Corbyn is a rubbish leader and possibly the only Labour leader who could lose an election against a party that has been as appalling as the Tories, with a leader as inept as Boris.

I curse the day Labour elected the wrong Milliband brother and then panicked and shifted back to an outdated mode of left wing politics.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:54 AM   #133
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Nigel says if he doesn't get a pact with Boris his party will contest every seat.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:57 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Nigel says if he doesn't get a pact with Boris his party will contest every seat.
And Boris said we would leave the EU on Oct 31st. Lying liars lie.
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Old 1st November 2019, 06:58 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
I am expecting to hear over the next few weeks that voting for the Tories will lead to a hard brexit, which will be followed by Scotland having indy ref 2 and leaving the union.
How realistic is that second threat if the first condition is met. Hasn't Ireland shown us, and the SNP arguments demonstrated that an independent Scotland in the EU would need a hard border somewhere north of Hadrian's wall? Would Scots really choose that option? Is indy ref 2 an empty threat as far as this campaign is concerned?

Polling has shown that relatively few people care about customs checks on the Scottish border. It's much shorter than the internal border in Ireland, it mostly runs along the top of the Cheviots where it doesn't bother anyone, and there are relatively few minor roads crossing it. It also doesn't run through the middle of farmyards or pubs as the Irish one does. The number of people who would be inconvenienced or care about it is quite small.

It also doesn't have a history of people blowing things up and shooting people. Most people who actually have a passport know that customs checks between countries where there is reasonable goodwill on both sides are no big deal. Scotland certainly has no ill will, and I suspect a post-Brexit England won't be able to affort to develop any.
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Old 1st November 2019, 07:04 AM   #136
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Old 1st November 2019, 07:05 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Polling has shown that relatively few people care about customs checks on the Scottish border. It's much shorter than the internal border in Ireland, it mostly runs along the top of the Cheviots where it doesn't bother anyone, and there are relatively few minor roads crossing it. It also doesn't run through the middle of farmyards or pubs as the Irish one does. The number of people who would be inconvenienced or care about it is quite small.

It also doesn't have a history of people blowing things up and shooting people. Most people who actually have a passport know that customs checks between countries where there is reasonable goodwill on both sides are no big deal. Scotland certainly has no ill will, and I suspect a post-Brexit England won't be able to affort to develop any.
A lot depends on the future UK/rUK relationship with England. I would imagine that it could be a pain to import/export to/from Scotland via England to/from the EU if things are not plain sailing in terms of customs unions etc in future.

Of course there is no need to go via England but would probably need a fair amount of investment to put in place new direct routes to Rotterdam, Calais etc.

I think a border between Scotland and England would be psychologically bothersome for a lot of people and it's obviously less good than a customs union. But whether it would be a deal breaker, who knows.
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Old 1st November 2019, 07:06 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The only people who think he is a horrid leader are the non-dom tabloid press, Tories and LibDems.

Funny dat.
I was a Labour Party member for 25 years and have voted Labour in every General Election since 1987 (the first one I was able to vote in) - I think he is a horrid leader.

Wyld Bird Seed's bassist has voted Labour for even longer (he is older than I and has voted Labour since 1979) - he thinks Corbyn is a terrible leader.

The bassist's daughter is only 25 and was a member of Labour until last year until last year when she resigned from the party because of Corbyn's terrible leadership and stance on Brexit.

Our next door neighbours have voted Labour for over 50 years and have been party members for most of that time - they think Corbyn is a terrible leader.
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Old 1st November 2019, 07:11 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
A lot depends on the future UK/rUK relationship with England. I would imagine that it could be a pain to import/export to/from Scotland via England to/from the EU if things are not plain sailing in terms of customs unions etc in future.

Of course there is no need to go via England but would probably need a fair amount of investment to put in place new direct routes to Rotterdam, Calais etc.

I think a border between Scotland and England would be psychologically bothersome for a lot of people and it's obviously less good than a customs union. But whether it would be a deal breaker, who knows.

We need to redevelop our historical direct trading links with the continent in any case. These have been deliberately strangled in order to keep Scotland dependent on England and to skew the balance of payment figures by being able to claim that anything exported from an English port is an English export, even if it drove there non-stop in a lorry from Dundee. Look at the export figures for Scotch whisky from England. England doesn't produce Scotch whisky.

There has been polling about this. Very few people care and they're almost entirely the ones who aren't going to be voting SNP or Yes in the first place, so in electoral terms it doesn't much matter.
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Old 1st November 2019, 07:29 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
There has been polling about this. Very few people care and they're almost entirely the ones who aren't going to be voting SNP or Yes in the first place, so in electoral terms it doesn't much matter.
Do you have a link?
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Old 1st November 2019, 08:40 AM   #141
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I'm trying to trace a link to the poll. I'll get back to you.
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Old 1st November 2019, 08:43 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
2017 General election
SNP 977,569
Con 757,949
Lab 717,007

Don't confuse a biased voting system which favours the SNP, giving them ~60% of the seats on ~37% of the vote, with Popularity.

I should perhaps also have mentioned that Labour are currently sitting at about 14% of the vote in Scottish opinion polls. Really, don't confuse "being the third party in terms of total votes" and "commanding 14% of the popular vote" with "Scots vote Labour".
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Old 1st November 2019, 08:43 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Farage is demanding the Tories drop the Brexit agreement and go for a 'clean break' as condition of a pact.
He wants the Tories to become the Brexit Party.
It's not going to happen.
You never know what BoJo will promise to keep his paws on power.

Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
What happened to the 'technological solutions'?
The pixies died.
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Old 1st November 2019, 09:10 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I should perhaps also have mentioned that Labour are currently sitting at about 14% of the vote in Scottish opinion polls. Really, don't confuse "being the third party in terms of total votes" and "commanding 14% of the popular vote" with "Scots vote Labour".
I think the SNP and Labour are quite close in policies if you remove the delegated powers / independence question. Certainly they are closer to each other than the Tories. The SNP only stand in Scotland. From a UK perspective I think they are seen as McLabour. When people say Scotland is Labour they mean Scotland is closer to Labour than the Tories and that Scottish MPs are likely to vote in accordance with Labour than the Tories.

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Old 1st November 2019, 09:39 AM   #145
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Nice bit of sophistry. Also, you're not up to speed on Labour's constant taunting of the SNP as "Tartan Tories" (while happily cosying up to the actual Tories in various local authority coalitions, voting with the Tories on things like benefits cuts and sanctions, standing shoulder to shoulder with them in Better Together and actually advising their supporters to vote Conservative if the Tory candidate had a better chance of unseating the SNP incumbent in 2017).

In fact it is arguable that the overt urging from the Scottish Labour leader to Labour voters to vote Conservative in 2017 was responsible for Theresa May getting enough seats to form a government after that election.

So no. Scots do not vote Labour, and Labour are so virulently against the SNP that they'd rather see a Tory win a seat than the SNP. I really don't care how people in England see it, that's the reality.
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Old 1st November 2019, 09:44 AM   #146
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I said I am going to vote Green if they stand, but that my vote won't make the slightest bit of difference under FPTP.
And you said that if the Greens weren't running, you wouldn't vote for anybody at all.

Quote:
I have no time for these people who get on their high horse about voting as if that's the key to making a difference.
I wasn't getting on my high horse about anything. I was pointing out the hypocrisy in you getting on your high horse about people ******* the country by voting against their own best interests. That's your phrasing, not mine.
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Old 1st November 2019, 09:51 AM   #147
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Originally Posted by Ethan Thane Athen View Post
I curse the day Labour elected the wrong Milliband brother and then panicked and shifted back to an outdated mode of left wing politics.
I honestly don't think there's a problem with having a left-leaning Labour party again. I think it's great, in fact. And I don't think it's a problem for the general public who, in polls, seem to tend to agree with many left-leaning policies (nationalisation, for example).

The problem for me, specifically, is Corbyn.
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Old 1st November 2019, 10:10 AM   #148
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If Farage hates Johnson's deal so much, maybe his best strategy would be only to field candidates in Tory constituencies, then he can make certain it doesn't get passed.

I know, even Farage isn't that stupid. But I can dream.

Dave
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Old 1st November 2019, 10:14 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Nice bit of sophistry. Also, you're not up to speed on Labour's constant taunting of the SNP as "Tartan Tories" (while happily cosying up to the actual Tories in various local authority coalitions, voting with the Tories on things like benefits cuts and sanctions, standing shoulder to shoulder with them in Better Together and actually advising their supporters to vote Conservative if the Tory candidate had a better chance of unseating the SNP incumbent in 2017).

In fact it is arguable that the overt urging from the Scottish Labour leader to Labour voters to vote Conservative in 2017 was responsible for Theresa May getting enough seats to form a government after that election.

So no. Scots do not vote Labour, and Labour are so virulently against the SNP that they'd rather see a Tory win a seat than the SNP. I really don't care how people in England see it, that's the reality.
Ideologically Labour and the SNP are in a similar space, some distance from the Tories. Faced with a choice between the two main UK parties the Scots would I suspect vote Labour.
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Old 1st November 2019, 10:18 AM   #150
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Who knows. It's not likely to be tested anyway. That still doesn't make what Vixen said anywhere close to true, and I don't know why you keep defending it.
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Old 1st November 2019, 10:25 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Way to prove my point. Labour came third. This can by no means be translated into "the Scots vote Labour".

It's the same voting system as the rest of Britain, and the basis for all the comments has been the same as the basis for comments about other electoral battlefields. It's common for a government to be elected on 37% of the vote.

Scotland used to vote Labour. It doesn't do that any more. In the normal terms of how these things are discussed.
I think it would be clearer to say that Scotland used to return lots of Labour MPs, it doesn't do that any more.
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Old 1st November 2019, 10:26 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Ideologically Labour and the SNP are in a similar space, some distance from the Tories. Faced with a choice between the two main UK parties the Scots would I suspect vote Labour.
Yes, Scotland is more to the left than England and that has become more and more obvious with brexit.
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Old 1st November 2019, 10:37 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I honestly don't think there's a problem with having a left-leaning Labour party again. I think it's great, in fact. And I don't think it's a problem for the general public who, in polls, seem to tend to agree with many left-leaning policies (nationalisation, for example).

The problem for me, specifically, is Corbyn.
Sorry, me neither - apologies for being unclear. I am happy with a left of centre Labour party - it's where they should be. It's how far left Corbyn is and how uninspiring* as a leader he is that's the problem I have.

I am also happy with some of the policies - I agree with nationalisation - to a point. Key infrastructure such as water and electricity should never have been privatised. I can also see an argument for the railways (or at least the track**). Car industry, nope, but anything I would class as national infrastructure should 'belong' to the nation.

*Uninspiring to me, and plenty of others, I get he inspires some people but not enough and his leadership / failure to unite his party has been shambolic. Much as I think the whole antisemitism thing is overblown (most of it is anti-Israel apart from a few nutters) it's difficult to see how he could have handled it worse. Same with Brexit.

**Similarly with telecomms.

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Old 1st November 2019, 10:44 AM   #154
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I wasn't getting on my high horse about anything. I was pointing out the hypocrisy in you getting on your high horse about people ******* the country by voting against their own best interests. That's your phrasing, not mine.
Then I don't understand your point because there is zero hypocrisy there.

Maybe you don't understand the arithmetic.... I am one person, my vote doesn't matter. Whatever I do other people are going to decide who the government is. 'Other people' who vote Tory are counted in millions.
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Old 1st November 2019, 10:48 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
I think it would be clearer to say that Scotland used to return lots of Labour MPs, it doesn't do that any more.

Indeed, that is perfectly correct.

Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Yes, Scotland is more to the left than England and that has become more and more obvious with brexit.

And it is also perfectly reasonable to observe that Scotland as a whole appears to be significantly further to the left than England.

However none of that is what Vixen actually said, which Lothian has been getting his knickers in an almighty twist trying to defend.

Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
the Irish element vote Labour, as does it seems the Scots in the UK.

I take that to mean that the Scots vote Labour for Westminster. Not since 2010 (when they successfully held 41 seats) they haven't. This is a fact. End of.
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Old 1st November 2019, 10:49 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I honestly don't think there's a problem with having a left-leaning Labour party again. I think it's great, in fact. And I don't think it's a problem for the general public who, in polls, seem to tend to agree with many left-leaning policies (nationalisation, for example).

The problem for me, specifically, is Corbyn.
That makes little to no sense. It is Corbyn as a leader who has instigated a lot of these 'popular' policies.

So either the policies aren't popular enough or the policies are popular and people are stupidly voting against what they actually want.
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Old 1st November 2019, 11:03 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
However none of that is what Vixen actually said, which Lothian has been getting his knickers in an almighty twist trying to defend.
Can't people disagree without things getting personal?


Quote:
I take that to mean that the Scots vote Labour for Westminster. Not since 2010 (when they successfully held 41 seats) they haven't. This is a fact. End of.
Given her next words were "I tend to be left leaning..." Suggests the conversation was more left and right" rather than about parties, but whatever.
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Old 1st November 2019, 11:33 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Then I don't understand your point because there is zero hypocrisy there.

Maybe you don't understand the arithmetic.... I am one person, my vote doesn't matter. Whatever I do other people are going to decide who the government is. 'Other people' who vote Tory are counted in millions.
Perhaps the people you're railing against also don't think their vote matters?

It's entirely your right to vote or not vote, but I think it's very difficult to take seriously complaints about the outcome of elections or any official parliamentary action from people who don't vote.
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Old 1st November 2019, 11:46 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Can't people disagree without things getting personal?

"You are entitled to your own opinion. You are not entitled to your own facts."

Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Given her next words were "I tend to be left leaning..." Suggests the conversation was more left and right" rather than about parties, but whatever.

Her actual words said that Scots "tend to vote Labour" (in Westminster). Not that they're more left-leaning, but that they, you know, vote Labour. Which is mince. If she'd wanted to say "tend to vote SNP, which is also a party of the left", she could have said that. She didn't. What she said was entirely wrong. Which is what I pointed out. It's not a matter of disagreement, it's a matter of actual verifiable fact.

Also, considering that your first shot at a response was to try to make out that she was not numerically wrong, by posting voting figured which showed Labour in third place with a whopping 27% of the vote, apparently on the basis that the SNP only having achieved 37% of the vote didn't count (although nobody else had mentioned the SNP until then) suggests you don't believe your own new line either.

I'm struggling to understand why you seem hell-bent on dying on this particular hill, which wasn't even your hill in the first place.
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Old 1st November 2019, 12:10 PM   #160
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
"You are entitled to your own opinion. You are not entitled to your own facts."
and how well placed are you to decide the factual status of my knickers?

Quote:
Her actual words said that Scots "tend to vote Labour" (in Westminster). Not that they're more left-leaning, but that they, you know, vote Labour. Which is mince. If she'd wanted to say "tend to vote SNP, which is also a party of the left", she could have said that. She didn't. What she said was entirely wrong. Which is what I pointed out. It's not a matter of disagreement, it's a matter of actual verifiable fact.

Also, considering that your first shot at a response was to try to make out that she was not numerically wrong, by posting voting figured which showed Labour in third place with a whopping 27% of the vote, apparently on the basis that the SNP only having achieved 37% of the vote didn't count (although nobody else had mentioned the SNP until then) suggests you don't believe your own new line either.

I'm struggling to understand why you seem hell-bent on dying on this particular hill, which wasn't even your hill in the first place.
Vixen's post was actually about personality over policy. You picked up on a comment about Labour, suggesting they lack support in Scotland. I pointed out that they don't and later that the SNP and Labour are (Scottish determination aside) in a similar space policy wise

I think every one actually agrees that Scotland is more left wing than England and personalities aside that is where they would vote rather than the charismatic ditch dodger Tory.

I am at a loss as to why you don't think I should contribute to a public thread but hey ho.
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