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Old 16th December 2019, 03:58 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It was never "supposed" to be once in a generation. Various people used the phrase "once in a generation (or occasionally once in a lifetime) opportunity", as a way to emphasise that the attitude which one encountered from time to time that maybe 2014 wasn't the right time, we should get what concessions we could now and then go again in a few years time was by no means a given.

Both Johnson and Corbyn used the exact same phrase about last week's election. Are we going to stop having general elections until someone agrees that "a lifetime" has passed then? It's a figure of speech for goodness sake.

But having said all that, in relation to the question of Northern Ireland having referendums about rejoining Ireland, "a generation" has been defined as seven years.
Will that every seven years be until independence and then stop? That is the awkward question and what has bothered many about referendums in general.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:06 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Well, you know, we've already got all those things too. Plus some stupid percentage of the world's top 100 universities per head of population.
Sure, I know that. I'm just saying that natural resources matter very little. Scotland is viable as a country, but not because of North Sea oil or cod. Those help, a little.

Quote:
Having travelled around a bit and seen a wide variety of independent countries who are doing well and who wouldn't go back to being a colony of their former colonial masters on a bet, it never ceases to amaze me that people will sit and ask, seriously "could Scotland survive as an independent country?"
Well, Scotland is a bit of a special case. If it becomes independent unilaterarily without foreign allies, with BJ in Whitehall and Trump in the White House, Scotland may not survive as an independent country for a very 20th century reason. BJ has been trying to get rid of EU and align closely with USA, if Trump and his Republicans run the show their mutual goals aren't all that great for Scotland.

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Old 16th December 2019, 04:19 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Not how democracy works. Normally, when a democracy elects a government or President, then that's it - you don't get another vote for four or five years .
How long have the last two UK parliaments lasted?
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:24 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Sure, I know that. I'm just saying that natural resources matter very little. Scotland is viable as a country, but not because of North Sea oil or cod. Those help, a little.

Well, Scotland is a bit of a special case. If it becomes independent unilaterarily without foreign allies, with BJ in Whitehall and Trump in the White House, Scotland may not survive as an independent country for a very 20th century reason. BJ has been trying to get rid of EU and align closely with USA, if Trump and his Republicans run the show their mutual goals aren't all that great for Scotland.

The point here is that Scotland is not trying to become independent unilaterally, without foreign allies. The Scottish government is under no illusions about this.

And really, having a very disproportionate share of the EU's oil and fishing and renewable energy and fresh water resources (just for starters) isn't nothing. Not to mention the highly educated population, these universities, a tourism magnet, the Scotch whisky industry (which BoJo is trying to destroy I wonder why) and being a mature, developed first world democracy.

We'll be fine, so long as independence is achieved legally and peacefully. The interesting point is whether independence can now be achieved legally and peacefully, given the state England is descending into.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:32 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The point here is that Scotland is not trying to become independent unilaterally, without foreign allies. The Scottish government is under no illusions about this.

And really, having a very disproportionate share of the EU's oil and fishing and renewable energy and fresh water resources (just for starters) isn't nothing. Not to mention the highly educated population, these universities, a tourism magnet, the Scotch whisky industry (which BoJo is trying to destroy I wonder why) and being a mature, developed first world democracy.

We'll be fine, so long as independence is achieved legally and peacefully. The interesting point is whether independence can now be achieved legally and peacefully, given the state England is descending into.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:32 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Will that every seven years be until independence and then stop? That is the awkward question and what has bothered many about referendums in general.

If there is popular demand. If a second independence referendum were to be lost (which I think is unlikely) then whether there would be popular demand for a third in a relatively short time is debatable.

If, after independence, there was popular demand for a referendum to re-join England (is that a pig I see circling overhead?), then that too should be able to be accommodated.

Bear in mind that if you exclude the elderly, there is already a clear majority for independence in Scotland. Young people are over 70% in favour. Of course there is some churn as some people do move towards unionism as they age, but not, it seems, in the numbers necessary to halt the underlying process.

Bear in mind also that there isn't a single example of a recently-independent country regretting becoming independent, even those with fewer resources or in a more precarious political positionn than Scotland. On the contrary, everywhere you go, locals are keen to tell visitors about when they became independent, how proud they are to be an independent country, and how the country has thrived since then. Why on earth would anyone anticipate that after getting free of isolationist Brext England and joining the EU as a full member, regaining freedom of movement and so on, people would be clamouring to give all that up? It beggars belief.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:35 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
He is

Yes. He's keen to stop "Scotch" being a protected brand name which can only be applied to whisky made in Scotland. So any whisky made in England - or Japan or the USA or indeed anywhere - can be marketed as Scotch.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:36 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
...
A majority in Scotland is in favour of having another independence referendum in the near future. ....
How do you know that?
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:38 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
And really, having a very disproportionate share of the EU's oil and fishing and renewable energy and fresh water resources (just for starters) isn't nothing.
Major freshwater resources and fish stocks are not nothing but are also not very significant either. You won't be exporting fresh water any time soon, nor will Scotland find it easy to sell fish and renewable energy to anyone but Europeans. It can be done of course, it just won't be easy or as profitable. Ditto for tourism and whisky. Educated workforce in a mature first world democracy are major assets though.

Quote:
We'll be fine, so long as independence is achieved legally and peacefully. The interesting point is whether independence can now be achieved legally and peacefully, given the state England is descending into.
Maybe, perhaps, mayhaps it will help. If BJ wants to build Tories into an English national party he may seek to remove Scotland from the Union, because Scotland would only hinder his ability to form a workable majority and Scotts may align themselves with (almost) anyone to keep him out of power.
BJ might also want to keep Scotland in the union if his electorate signals losing Scotland would be the end of him.

That's what happens when you elect populists. Right, wrong, beneficial and harmful are no longer factors, the whims of the electorate are all that matters.

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Old 16th December 2019, 04:39 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
How do you know that?

Multiple opinion polls.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:40 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Yes. He's keen to stop "Scotch" being a protected brand name which can only be applied to whisky made in Scotland. So any whisky made in England - or Japan or the USA or indeed anywhere - can be marketed as Scotch.
He is ?

I'm no fan of Boris Johnson or the Conservatives, but I haven't seen anything in this regard.

I have seen news stories of Scottish producers lobbying Boris Johnson to ensure that EU protections are maintained post-Brexit but not that Boris Johnson is advocating the removal of protections.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:40 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Well, you know, we've already got all those things too. Plus some stupid percentage of the world's top 100 universities per head of population.

Having travelled around a bit and seen a wide variety of independent countries who are doing well and who wouldn't go back to being a colony of their former colonial masters on a bet, it never ceases to amaze me that people will sit and ask, seriously "could Scotland survive as an independent country?"
During the debates about the Indy ref, I was never one to try and claim that and it is a nonsense. I was amazed at how many people thought it.

One of the big issues was the pound and by retaining it, Scotland was leaving a lot of power with England. Now, that is surely a non-issue as we know Scotland would join the EU and the Eurozone.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:43 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Multiple opinion polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...rendum_polling

"From 18 September 2016 to 18 September 2017 twenty-six polls were conducted with twenty-five returning "No" as the most popular answer and only one returning "Yes" as the most popular answer.[15]

"No" continued to show a lead in opinion polls until July 2019, when one poll by Lord Ashcroft showed a narrow majority for "Yes".[16] Professor John Curtice said after this poll was released that there had recently been a swing towards "Yes", and that this was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum"

Is that wrong?
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:43 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Major freshwater resources and fish stocks are not nothing but are also not very significant either. You won't be exporting fresh water any time soon, nor will Scotland find it easy to sell fish and renewable energy to anyone but Europeans. It can be done of course, it just won't be easy or as profitable. Ditto for tourism and whisky. Educated workforce in a mature first world democracy are major assets though.

Well, you know, I think we'll be fine.

Politics is a difficult game to call in advance. I fear the colonial mindset (not to mention knowledge of the worth of all these assets you dismiss so airily) is too strong in pretty much all of the English political class for any Prime Minister to decide that Scottish independence is something he's happy to accept, but we live in hope.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:45 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
He is ?

I'm no fan of Boris Johnson or the Conservatives, but I haven't seen anything in this regard.

I have seen news stories of Scottish producers lobbying Boris Johnson to ensure that EU protections are maintained post-Brexit but not that Boris Johnson is advocating the removal of protections.

I've seen some very worrying suggestions. It's something Trump wants on the table as part of a trade deal, and Boris is very keen to give Trump what he wants. The fact that it could significantly damage an independent Scotland is just icing on the cake.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:47 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
During the debates about the Indy ref, I was never one to try and claim that and it is a nonsense. I was amazed at how many people thought it.

One of the big issues was the pound and by retaining it, Scotland was leaving a lot of power with England. Now, that is surely a non-issue as we know Scotland would join the EU and the Eurozone.

I'm agnostic about the Euro. Personally I would like to be using Euros all the time and to be able to travel without changing money. However I recognise that people who know about these things see a significant disadvantage to a country not having control of its own currency.

It's moot anyway. Scotland does not meet the criteria to join the Euro. I believe it will be necessary to have an independent Scottish currency for some time, and then we can decide if the Euro is right for us.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:49 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...rendum_polling

"From 18 September 2016 to 18 September 2017 twenty-six polls were conducted with twenty-five returning "No" as the most popular answer and only one returning "Yes" as the most popular answer.[15]

"No" continued to show a lead in opinion polls until July 2019, when one poll by Lord Ashcroft showed a narrow majority for "Yes".[16] Professor John Curtice said after this poll was released that there had recently been a swing towards "Yes", and that this was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum"

Is that wrong?

You're answering the wong question. A majority is in favour of holding another referendum in the near future. Some people who would still vote No nevertheless believe a referendum is the right thing to do.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:55 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I've seen some very worrying suggestions. It's something Trump wants on the table as part of a trade deal, and Boris is very keen to give Trump what he wants. The fact that it could significantly damage an independent Scotland is just icing on the cake.
I haven't seen this at all

I have seen that Donald Trump wants tariffs on US Whiskey removed as part of any US/UK trade deal - and that Boris Johnson wants a reciprocal removal of US tariffs on Scotch whisky.

I haven't seen anything to suggest that Donald Trump is asking for a change to Scotch whisky's status - I'd be grateful if you could provide a link.
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Old 16th December 2019, 04:59 AM   #99
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I didn't save the links, sorry. I do hope he's not trying to do that, but the articles I read were fairly clear that he was.
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Old 16th December 2019, 05:20 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Well, you know, I think we'll be fine.

Politics is a difficult game to call in advance. I fear the colonial mindset (not to mention knowledge of the worth of all these assets you dismiss so airily) is too strong in pretty much all of the English political class for any Prime Minister to decide that Scottish independence is something he's happy to accept, but we live in hope.
You misunderstand the importance of those assets. To an independent country they're benefits that can help, Scotland whiskey industry in particular is a billion (pound/dollar/euro) industry and that's welcome, yet it's not something you want to base an industry on.
To a crooked politician such industries can be sources of vast personal fortunes, because the needs of even the most corrupt of politicians are vastly smaller than the needs of a nation of millions.

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Old 16th December 2019, 05:52 AM   #101
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I fail to see the relevance of that remark. Scotland is a mature first world democracy, not a banana republic.


Oh and this. https://twitter.com/Mach1Mcl/status/1206494667598118912
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Old 16th December 2019, 06:02 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I fail to see the relevance of that remark. Scotland is a mature first world democracy, not a banana republic.
So was the USA, twenty years ago. So is UK ... for now, anyway.

My point is that whenever you have a major export industry that does not rely on high technology (whiskey brewing needs 17th century technolgy) you run a risk of becoming a banana republic. The two greatest economic assets of Scotland you mention are whiskey and oil, you don't want to base the economy on them. The same goes for tourism, it's a welcome bonus and a provider of income for people not capable of something more.

They all help. They're all welcome addition to any economy. But any economy should strive to diversify away from those. Both whiskey and tourism come with an additional hurt: demand for both is quite flexible, especially for tourism. This can spell trouble in the case of a major worldwide downturn.

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Old 16th December 2019, 06:46 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I didn't save the links, sorry. I do hope he's not trying to do that, but the articles I read were fairly clear that he was.
Isnít it more to do with leaving the EU means that all of the names protected by the EU now lose that status?

Cumberland sausage, Cornish pasty, Scotch, and presumably Britain can make English Sherry and Welsh champagne etc...?
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Old 16th December 2019, 07:37 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
So was the USA, twenty years ago. So is UK ... for now, anyway.

My point is that whenever you have a major export industry that does not rely on high technology (whiskey brewing needs 17th century technolgy) you run a risk of becoming a banana republic. The two greatest economic assets of Scotland you mention are whiskey and oil, you don't want to base the economy on them. The same goes for tourism, it's a welcome bonus and a provider of income for people not capable of something more.

They all help. They're all welcome addition to any economy. But any economy should strive to diversify away from those. Both whiskey and tourism come with an additional hurt: demand for both is quite flexible, especially for tourism. This can spell trouble in the case of a major worldwide downturn.

Honestly, I don't think Scotland needs advice on economics from an anonymous internet poster. We can manage, thank you for your concern. Our main concern at the moment is being able to hold a legal and unimpeded referendum to establish the will of the people now (or at least in the near future), as the 2014 result is void both because of the breaking of the promises that were issued to stem the last-minute surge to Yes, and the treatment of Scotland in connection with leaving the EU.
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Old 16th December 2019, 10:15 AM   #105
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I don't think you're allowed to start using the Euro as your currency before you join the EU. What do you plan to use as your interim currency?

Are you going to keep the Queen or her successor as your head of state, or have a Scottish Monarchy or elect a President?

What are your plans for the land border with England?
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Old 16th December 2019, 10:21 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I don't think you're allowed to start using the Euro as your currency before you join the EU. What do you plan to use as your interim currency?

Are you going to keep the Queen or her successor as your head of state, or have a Scottish Monarchy or elect a President?

What are your plans for the land border with England?


Honestly, I don't think Scotland needs advice on its plans for currency from an anonymous internet poster. They can manage, thanks for your concern
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Old 16th December 2019, 10:26 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Isnít it more to do with leaving the EU means that all of the names protected by the EU now lose that status?

Cumberland sausage, Cornish pasty, Scotch, and presumably Britain can make English Sherry and Welsh champagne etc...?


Nope. Protected geographical status has worldwide legal implications. Otherwise, for example, you'd already have things such as "Californian Champagne".

What will have to happen post-Brexit is that the UK will set up its own protected status programme (and almost certainly it will simply admit everything from the UK which is already on the EU list). And then that new UK list will carry exactly the same sort of legally-enforceable protection throughout the World.
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Old 16th December 2019, 10:32 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Well, you know, I think we'll be fine.

Politics is a difficult game to call in advance. I fear the colonial mindset (not to mention knowledge of the worth of all these assets you dismiss so airily) is too strong in pretty much all of the English political class for any Prime Minister to decide that Scottish independence is something he's happy to accept, but we live in hope.


Do you actually think the rUK* political class (whether in general or in the form of the new government and parliament) have a "colonial mindset" with respect to Scotland? Is that what you really believe? That they regard - and treat - Scotland as their colony? Is that what they teach Scottish schoolchildren?


* And by "rUK" I mean the UK minus Scotland, which is what we should be talking about. It's a standard piece of sleight-of-hand on the part of Scottish nationalists to pretend this is about "the English versus the Scottish". It is not.
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Old 16th December 2019, 10:36 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
You're answering the wong question. A majority is in favour of holding another referendum in the near future. Some people who would still vote No nevertheless believe a referendum is the right thing to do.
OK, I see and I am surprised. I was looking at this from the tactical point of; it does not make sense for the SNP to want another referendum, if they think there is a good chance they would lose.

Surely another NO to independence would kill that off for at least a generation.
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Old 16th December 2019, 11:02 AM   #110
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And not having a vote at the point when we've been maximally screwed over by Westminster would also kill it off for a generation, so what is there to lose? If there isn't a majority in favour of independence after all that has happened and is about to happen then perhaps there is no appetite in the country for independence at all.

The shame of it. The only country in the world to have had the chance for independence and turn it down. And from a uniquely advantaged position, without the hardships that so many others have taken on to gain their freedom. Pretty sad really. But I don't think that's how it will go.
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Old 16th December 2019, 11:18 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The shame of it. The only country in the world to have had the chance for independence and turn it down. And from a uniquely advantaged position, without the hardships that so many others have taken on to gain their freedom. Pretty sad really. But I don't think that's how it will go.
I think that uniquely advantaged position, of being in the UK and on an individual level, with so many Scots interrelated with others in the UK (how many Scots have no relatives who either live elsewhere in the UK or are English, Welsh of NI?), is a major reason why the last vote was NO.

The UK is a union between nations that many in the EU would possibly like to see Europe evolve into. It is what many would see as a very successful union of nations, where each has a strong identity around the world and strong local governments.
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Old 18th December 2019, 03:23 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Nope. Protected geographical status has worldwide legal implications. Otherwise, for example, you'd already have things such as "Californian Champagne".
Actually, we do have "California Champagne". That doesn't invalidate the significance of geographical status, but it's not always so simple.
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Old 18th December 2019, 03:31 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I don't think you're allowed to start using the Euro as your currency before you join the EU. What do you plan to use as your interim currency?

Are you going to keep the Queen or her successor as your head of state, or have a Scottish Monarchy or elect a President?

What are your plans for the land border with England?
Of course Scotland could use the euro without joining the EU. Montenegro and Kosovo already use it, they're not EU members.
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Old 18th December 2019, 03:44 PM   #114
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Panama, IIRC, has the Panamanian Peso Balboa as its official currency but all business is done with US$.
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Old 20th December 2019, 08:30 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Nope. Protected geographical status has worldwide legal implications. Otherwise, for example, you'd already have things such as "Californian Champagne".

What will have to happen post-Brexit is that the UK will set up its own protected status programme (and almost certainly it will simply admit everything from the UK which is already on the EU list). And then that new UK list will carry exactly the same sort of legally-enforceable protection throughout the World.
Itís a trademark. Itís only legally enforceable in places that actually enforce trademarks, and maybe not even then. Itís highly doubtful the EU strip away any UK trademarks but there is nothing to stop them from doing it. Eg during WWI the US and UK stopped enforcing the trademark Asprin allowing anyone to use the name. In Germany, and a good chunk of the world it remains a trademarked product, anyone can make is but they can't call it Asprin.
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Old 20th December 2019, 08:51 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Itís a trademark. Itís only legally enforceable in places that actually enforce trademarks, and maybe not even then. Itís highly doubtful the EU strip away any UK trademarks but there is nothing to stop them from doing it.
In the sense that it's within their power to do so, yes. In practice, what will likely stop them from doing so (or at least doing so completely) is reciprocity: if they don't respect UK trademarks, the UK likely won't respect theirs. There will likely be a negotiated agreement about which trademarks to mutually recognize, and there will probably be a big push to keep it at the status quo.

Quote:
Eg during WWI the US and UK stopped enforcing the trademark Asprin allowing anyone to use the name. In Germany, and a good chunk of the world it remains a trademarked product, anyone can make is but they can't call it Asprin.
Nitpick: aspirin, not asprin.
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Old 20th December 2019, 09:15 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
In the sense that it's within their power to do so, yes. In practice, what will likely stop them from doing so (or at least doing so completely) is reciprocity: if they don't respect UK trademarks, the UK likely won't respect theirs. There will likely be a negotiated agreement about which trademarks to mutually recognize, and there will probably be a big push to keep it at the status quo.
There is also the fact that trademarks are essentially a consumer protection mechanism. Companies treat them like intellectual property, but the real purpose is that consumers get exactly what they are asking for, not potentially questionable knockoff. Sometimes the distention ends up being a little silly though.

Since they protect EU consumers and are a matter of EU law, even if the UK didn't offer reciprocal trademark protection or decided to call any Whiskey produced in the UK ďScotch WhiskyĒ Scottish producers would likely still be able to defend their trademark in EU courts.
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Old 20th December 2019, 09:21 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
It would still have to be cheaper than the cost of relocating.
Where would they relocate to?
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Old 20th December 2019, 10:20 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Where would they relocate to?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28009977
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Old 21st December 2019, 12:09 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
There is also the fact that trademarks are essentially a consumer protection mechanism.
Not really. That's the nominal justification, but they're absolutely a producer protection mechanism. People who buy California champagne know it's from California. It's on the label. Unless they're too stupid to tie their own shoes, they aren't mistaking it for sparkling wine from the Champagne region of France. And in many cases, you're not protecting consumers because consumers don't even care about the difference. Hell, I bet a lot of people wouldn't even be able to tell the differences between products from different regions in a blind taste test.

That's why the demand for origin name protection always comes from the producers of those regions, never from consumers from other regions.
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