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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , joe biden

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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:30 PM   #2481
acbytesla
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
What's going on that there are still 2 million votes left to count?

I understood it would take longer this year, but it has been almost three weeks since the election. If the votes haven't been counted yet, that's kind of embarrassing.
It's kind of bizarre isn't it? But some states don't allow counting until the election day. They may also have a window that allows ballots to be accepted weeks after election day as long as they are postmarked on or before election day.

A real clue are the deadline dates for certification.

Wisconsin (Dec 1)
Kansas (Dec 1)
New Hampshire (Dec 2)
West Virginia (Dec 3)
Washington (Dec 3)
Texas (Dec 3)
Oregon (Dec 3)
Connecticut (Dec 3)
Illinois (Dec 4)
New York (Dec 7)
New Jersey (Dec 8)
Missouri (Dec 8)
Maryland (Dec 8)
California (Dec 11)
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:37 PM   #2482
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
But the certification process is different. I get that most states haven't certified and the vote counts could change a little bit as they double check the numbers and find a clerical error that put precinct 4s votes in both precinct 3 and precinct 4. Maybe they have a stack of 1,000 ballots that the machine couldn't read. Those sorts of things I expect and are normal.



The story I was replying to said that when it's all said and done, Biden will have 81.5 million votes, but his current total is slightly less than 80. In order for that story to make any sense, there has to be about 2 million votes out there that haven't been tallied yet. That's kind of ridiculous.
Ridiculous based on what?

When did the counting finish in prior years?
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:37 PM   #2483
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Tweets

Itís all about the signatures on the envelopes. Why are the Democrats fighting so hard to hide them. We will find massive numbers of fraudulent ballots. The signatures wonít match. Fight hard Republicans. Donít let them destroy the evidence!
One bizarre thing about this particular argument was hearing one GOP legislator say, when you go to vote they check your picture ID....

Voting was just as secure before their disenfranchisement orgy claims about illegal voting. Now they talk as if voter picture ID was always the standard.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:42 PM   #2484
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Originally Posted by Ryokan View Post
Encouraging others to betray their country?

But there are plenty of words in the English language that means practically the same, or that changes meaning depending on context.
Perhaps so.

Personally I favor a narrower definition of treason, similar to our Constitutional one--effectively waging war on the state or materially helping its enemies. That makes it less likely for political disagreements to be announced as treason. It shouldn't be that kind of a football.

Another good term to use is "subversive"--that is what I would call someone who betrayed their nation by their actions or words, but hadn't literally acted with intention to harm the state or help its enemies.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:43 PM   #2485
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
But the certification process is different. I get that most states haven't certified and the vote counts could change a little bit as they double check the numbers and find a clerical error that put precinct 4s votes in both precinct 3 and precinct 4. Maybe they have a stack of 1,000 ballots that the machine couldn't read. Those sorts of things I expect and are normal.

The story I was replying to said that when it's all said and done, Biden will have 81.5 million votes, but his current total is slightly less than 80. In order for that story to make any sense, there has to be about 2 million votes out there that haven't been tallied yet. That's kind of ridiculous.
I don't think that I've saw California poked at, yet. California has a history of taking a somewhat remarkably long time to finish counting. A month, for example, in the 2016 primary, IIRC.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:47 PM   #2486
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
They have been and are on the same side. Trump hasn't done much that any other Republican wouldn't have done, he's just been more crass in going about it.
I'm pretty sure any other GOP POTUS would have done a little better about the COVID response.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:54 PM   #2487
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
THIS time. Don't doubt for a second that McConnell is taking notes of which circuits to pack.
I think the focus on McConnell is slightly misplaced, personally. I'd be a bit more focused on the Republican strategists like Roger Stone and Karl Rove, as well as the super-rich people working to undermine the government, like the Koch brothers did. Our country is being stress-tested, either way, and there are definitely forces, both domestic and foreign, taking notes on things to target in the future, with hostile foreigners having a somewhat unprecedented ability to... sneak dirty strategies that would quickly break our country into the public consciousness.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:57 PM   #2488
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The Count

Biden:79,855,062

Trump:73,805,725

Difference: 6,049,337
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:57 PM   #2489
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I wonder if Trump actually believes that he can Tweet the courts into ruling in his favor on his ridiculous cases.
His target market is not the courts.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:04 PM   #2490
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This conversation that the final results are taking extraordinary long is a bit amusing considering how quickly they are actually counted and how long they use to take being counted.

Keep in mind that before FDR the new President wasn't sworn in until March 1st.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:05 PM   #2491
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
I don't think that I've saw California poked at, yet. California has a history of taking a somewhat remarkably long time to finish counting. A month, for example, in the 2016 primary, IIRC.
That's insane. As I said, I can understand taking that long to get everything right, and crosschecked, and clear out a few ballots here and there, but if you can't come within a million votes after three weeks, something is wrong.

And "It's always been like this" is not a defense of the system. It's proof that there's a flaw in the system.

Georgia has managed to count all their votes twice already. What's the slowdown in California? (And I haven't checked in on Alaska yet. I know they were awfully slow to report, as if there was any doubt about who would get those 3 electoral votes, but for all I know they're still out there tracking some votes.)
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:08 PM   #2492
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
I don't think he's trying to win the recount. I think he's trying to run out the clock without a resolution. That's the prize right now, to make enough states withhold their EVs until Biden no longer has a majority and they can throw it to the House.
The election results in Georgia are already certified. There is no clock to run out.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:10 PM   #2493
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
That's insane. As I said, I can understand taking that long to get everything right, and crosschecked, and clear out a few ballots here and there, but if you can't come within a million votes after three weeks, something is wrong.

And "It's always been like this" is not a defense of the system. It's proof that there's a flaw in the system.

Georgia has managed to count all their votes twice already. What's the slowdown in California? (And I haven't checked in on Alaska yet. I know they were awfully slow to report, as if there was any doubt about who would get those 3 electoral votes, but for all I know they're still out there tracking some votes.)
Georgia has 1/4 the population of California.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:11 PM   #2494
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
What's going on that there are still 2 million votes left to count?

I understood it would take longer this year, but it has been almost three weeks since the election. If the votes haven't been counted yet, that's kind of embarrassing.
The law in New York is that they have many weeks to accept absentee ballots and cannot count until that deadline passes.

For the primary, it was multiple weeks after the election that they even started counting them.

I don't think it's embarrassing that they are following the laws of their state.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:13 PM   #2495
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
The election results in Georgia are already certified. There is no clock to run out.
By sane standards, yes. The "hail mary" play is to try to throw enough disputes, however meritless once examined, into the play to provide justification for someone down the chain not to do their job. In this case, I think to give the US Senate enough pretext to avoid counting the EVs, which is the process that finalizes the results or sends it to the House if neither candidate has a majority.

I don't think there's enough ammo for Mitch to be willing to do that. But I do think that's what the Trump team is trying for.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:16 PM   #2496
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Georgia has 1/4 the population of California.
That's true, but shouldn't the number involved in the count scale up also?

There's undoubtedly larger overhead in counting more votes and it won't be totally fixed by just increasing the number of counters, but I agree that it's surprising there are so many votes still being counted in some places.

ETA: Some of it may be due to lax deadlines. No need to speed things up a whole heck of a lot if the state law doesn't require it. Just hire enough people to get the job done on time.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:16 PM   #2497
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
That's insane. As I said, I can understand taking that long to get everything right, and crosschecked, and clear out a few ballots here and there, but if you can't come within a million votes after three weeks, something is wrong.

And "It's always been like this" is not a defense of the system. It's proof that there's a flaw in the system.

Georgia has managed to count all their votes twice already. What's the slowdown in California? (And I haven't checked in on Alaska yet. I know they were awfully slow to report, as if there was any doubt about who would get those 3 electoral votes, but for all I know they're still out there tracking some votes.)
Without commenting positively or negatively about it pre-emptively, the LA Times has a bit of a roundup on the topic. There's more when it comes to the details, of course, but it's a good place to start on the topic.

What you should know about how and when California counts ballots
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:16 PM   #2498
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Georgia has 1/4 the population of California.
But that means that they have, or ought to have, 1/4 of the counters. The time required to count votes shouldn't be proportional to the number of votes to be counted, unless something is severely messed up.

What started this was the assertion posted earlier that the final tally was predicted to be 2,000,000 votes different than the current tallies. (Some rounding applied) That's a lot of votes, three weeks after the election.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:17 PM   #2499
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
I don't think that I've saw California poked at, yet. California has a history of taking a somewhat remarkably long time to finish counting. A month, for example, in the 2016 primary, IIRC.
California has some 270,000 ballots left to count.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sta...315.1605046236
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:18 PM   #2500
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The weird thing about the counting speed is not just how slow it is but how radically it slows down. By the end of election day we're hearing things like "95% reported" and "98.4% reported", and after that it's suddenly Ĺ of a percentage point per week.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:19 PM   #2501
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
That's insane. As I said, I can understand taking that long to get everything right, and crosschecked, and clear out a few ballots here and there, but if you can't come within a million votes after three weeks, something is wrong.
I'll ask again:

Compared to what baseline?



Quote:
And "It's always been like this" is not a defense of the system. It's proof that there's a flaw in the system.
No, that's just you stringing words together and calling it "proof."

How many ballots per day are the "correct" amount to get through? With what size staff?

Can you provide a demonstration of this number being achieved or is it just a completely arbitrary quota made up on the spot?


Quote:
Georgia has managed to count all their votes twice already. What's the slowdown in California? (And I haven't checked in on Alaska yet. I know they were awfully slow to report, as if there was any doubt about who would get those 3 electoral votes, but for all I know they're still out there tracking some votes.)
Maybe there's more votes to count in some states? Maybe the proportion of mail-in votes that require more steps is different.

"Georgia is done, therefore New York is slow" relies on a lot of questionable assumptions.

It's comically simplistic reasoning for a complicated procedure like this.

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 22nd November 2020 at 01:20 PM.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:21 PM   #2502
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
California has some 270,000 ballots left to count.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sta...315.1605046236
Thank you. I wasn't finding that number easily.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:27 PM   #2503
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
The weird thing about the counting speed is not just how slow it is but how radically it slows down. By the end of election day we're hearing things like "95% reported" and "98.4% reported", and after that it's suddenly Ĺ of a percentage point per week.
Generally, I attribute that to the way different forms of voting work. Electronic voting machines simply reporting a count is pretty much immediate. Opening absentee ballots and then running them through equipment or hand counting is dramatically slower, especially when there's an unusual surge to deal with. Waiting until deadlines after election day for absentee ballots to actually arrive can add a significant period of uncertainty, as well.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:28 PM   #2504
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
The weird thing about the counting speed is not just how slow it is but how radically it slows down. By the end of election day we're hearing things like "95% reported" and "98.4% reported", and after that it's suddenly Ĺ of a percentage point per week.
Thats because most of the temp workers are gone. They run the ballots through in batches.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:48 PM   #2505
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
The weird thing about the counting speed is not just how slow it is but how radically it slows down. By the end of election day we're hearing things like "95% reported" and "98.4% reported", and after that it's suddenly Ĺ of a percentage point per week.
I'm guessing, and this is only a guess, that there are paid staff involved, and they hire a bunch of temporary workers for election week, and then they get down to a much smaller staff. Or perhaps they divert people from other state/local jobs to do vote counting, but they assume all the votes will be counted by Friday, so after Friday, they are down to a much smaller number of counters.

Also, I'm sure that there are "problem" precincts or ballots that take longer to deal with.

However, if there's 250,000 votes left in a state three weeks after the election, it seems that no one thought that maybe they ought to keep that temporary staff on just a little bit longer and get things tidied up.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 01:52 PM   #2506
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
I'll ask again:

Compared to what baseline?
Compared to a sensible expectation that people have of how long it ought to take to count votes. If it takes three weeks, you're doing something wrong.




Quote:
No, that's just you stringing words together and calling it "proof."

How many ballots per day are the "correct" amount to get through? With what size staff?

Can you provide a demonstration of this number being achieved or is it just a completely arbitrary quota made up on the spot?




Maybe there's more votes to count in some states? Maybe the proportion of mail-in votes that require more steps is different.

"Georgia is done, therefore New York is slow" relies on a lot of questionable assumptions.

It's comically simplistic reasoning for a complicated procedure like this.
Sealioning.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:00 PM   #2507
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I'm guessing, and this is only a guess, that there are paid staff involved, and they hire a bunch of temporary workers for election week, and then they get down to a much smaller staff. Or perhaps they divert people from other state/local jobs to do vote counting, but they assume all the votes will be counted by Friday, so after Friday, they are down to a much smaller number of counters.

Also, I'm sure that there are "problem" precincts or ballots that take longer to deal with.

However, if there's 250,000 votes left in a state three weeks after the election, it seems that no one thought that maybe they ought to keep that temporary staff on just a little bit longer and get things tidied up.
I think this is an accurate description of the process. Also after the major races are mathematically decided the pressure of finishing the job is lessened.

What's the old maxim? The time any task takes to be completed is equal to the time alloted for it.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:09 PM   #2508
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Compared to a sensible expectation that people have of how long it ought to take to count votes. If it takes three weeks, you're doing something wrong.
How about comparing it to how long it takes in other democracies?

I'm only really familiar with UK elections, and I can't say for certain about those, but I have certainly never noticed it taking more than a day or two to count the votes in an election.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:35 PM   #2509
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump Retweeted

Elizabeth Harrington
@LizRNC
We're all fighting this fight right now.
We're talking about the core of our American Constitutional Republic, the right to vote, the thing people have died for since 1776.
The irony! The irony!
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:44 PM   #2510
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I'm pretty sure any other GOP POTUS would have done a little better about the COVID response.
Bush Jr famously took pandemic preparedness very seriously, and Obama continued what he started.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:47 PM   #2511
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Georgia has 1/4 the population of California.
So? 4X the peeps, 4X the counters. Same time to do the job.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:52 PM   #2512
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
The weird thing about the counting speed is not just how slow it is but how radically it slows down. By the end of election day we're hearing things like "95% reported" and "98.4% reported", and after that it's suddenly Ĺ of a percentage point per week.
Indeed. It seems to almost converge asymptotically, getting from 99.99999999% to 100% after infinite time.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:56 PM   #2513
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
So? 4X the peeps, 4X the counters. Same time to do the job.
Sure. But it never works that way.

California does its best not to disenfranchise voters whereas many of the southern states actually do their best to discourage voter participation. They might limit counting only ballots that arrive on Election day whereas California might accept ballots for weeks as long as they are a postmarked. They might allow curing of ballots for weeks and another state might not allow it at all. There are probably lots of reasons that California is slower.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:57 PM   #2514
dirtywick
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
Perhaps so.

Personally I favor a narrower definition of treason, similar to our Constitutional one--effectively waging war on the state or materially helping its enemies. That makes it less likely for political disagreements to be announced as treason. It shouldn't be that kind of a football.

Another good term to use is "subversive"--that is what I would call someone who betrayed their nation by their actions or words, but hadn't literally acted with intention to harm the state or help its enemies.
Sedition is encouraging others to rebel, which he is certainly also doing. Itís a type of treason of course so letís not split hairs too much. You could easily call someone performing seditious acts a traitor and be correct.

But heís not limited to that either. He is leveraging the power of the government to retain power also. He has openly called for members of the government to prosecute his political enemies on his behalf. Heís conspiring, at least attempting to, with other members of the government as well.

Anyway you can stick to a more narrow constitutional definition if you want, itís ok with me. In a casual conversation when somebody betrays their sworn duty to the US constitution to attempt to overturn a democratic result I think the words treason and traitor are appropriate.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 02:59 PM   #2515
dirtywick
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
So? 4X the peeps, 4X the counters. Same time to do the job.
Diminishing returns
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Old 22nd November 2020, 03:11 PM   #2516
Captain_Swoop
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Michigan House Speaker Lee Chatfield was on Fox & Friends saying that a “constitutional crisis” could still overturn Biden’s victory in Michigan
He is setting up a scenario where the Michigan legislature sends their own electors if the courts fail to break a deadlock

His meeting with Trump was exactly what we all thought it was.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 03:15 PM   #2517
Meadmaker
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Sure. But it never works that way.

California does its best not to disenfranchise voters whereas many of the southern states actually do their best to discourage voter participation. They might limit counting only ballots that arrive on Election day whereas California might accept ballots for weeks as long as they are a postmarked. They might allow curing of ballots for weeks and another state might not allow it at all. There are probably lots of reasons that California is slower.
Here's an article describing Califonia's issues, but it's from November 10.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...lots-so-slowly

It describes a whole lot of things California does to allow more voters to vote, so that's a good thing, and I agree with the general statement in the article that it's better to be correct than to be fast. However, it seems to me that it ought to be possible to be both, at least when "fast" would mean "a week or less".

Reading the article, it looks like the biggest bottleneck may be their signature verification process. Apparently, in California, it requires a "high level administrator" to throw out a ballot for a signature mismatch. It doesn't give more detail except to say, "in California, several more layers of increasingly senior officials inspect a ballot, in an effort to count as many as possible."

There's no other details, including who these "increasingly senior officials" actually are. However, I'm picturing people who have jobs to do still having a huge stack of votes that have to be viewed personally.

If the quarter million remaining votes are all of that sort, the situation isn't absolutely horrible. If they are concentrated in certain areas, i.e. if there are precincts that simply haven't been run through the counters yet, it would mean local races where the people running still don't have a clue who won three weeks later.

So, California needs to look at the process and see if there are ways to speed it up. It isn't good to have this kind of delay. Also, it can't just be California. If there are 2 million outstanding votes, and California has a quarter million, someplace else is also in trouble.

Anyway, I want to make sure no one thinks that I'm implying something nefarious is going on. I just think it's kind of crazy that there's still something between 1 and 2 percent of the total votes that have yet to be counted. Hopefully it's a one time glitch when people didn't really understand how different this year was going to be, and how procedures that were written for processing a few thousand absentee ballots suddenly had to be used to process a few million ballots.

ETA: The article would also explain why the 4x the votes and 4x the counters wouldn't work under California laws. You can't suddenly add 4x the "high level administrators". If the law requires specific people in California to be involved in the process, you can't create more of them to meet higher levels of demand.
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Last edited by Meadmaker; 22nd November 2020 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 03:15 PM   #2518
Delphic Oracle
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Compared to a sensible expectation that people have of how long it ought to take to count votes. If it takes three weeks, you're doing something wrong.













Sealioning.
Why is three weeks sensible?

Has it ever been performed in 3 weeks or less?
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Old 22nd November 2020, 03:18 PM   #2519
Delphic Oracle
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
How about comparing it to how long it takes in other democracies?



I'm only really familiar with UK elections, and I can't say for certain about those, but I have certainly never noticed it taking more than a day or two to count the votes in an election.
I suspect this lies at the heart of it.

We're conditioned to expect a winner declared within days. When that happens, we stop paying attention. When it doesn't, suddenly everyone's new awareness of it is declared an abberation.

I recall a lot of discussion about this very phenomenon in the days before the election. Now suddenly it is all so unexpected.

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 22nd November 2020 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 03:19 PM   #2520
thaiboxerken
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This is the first election that has almost as many paper ballots as digital ones. Perhaps as we realize that paper is the safest, and secure way to have an election the more efficient we'll get counting those ballots.
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