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Old 24th May 2020, 04:26 AM   #321
Planigale
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I notice that Bangladesh has hit the rocket-powered stage of the epidemic, which isn't going to be pretty in one of Asia's least-developed countries.

Their temperature range is remarkably similar to Hawaii's.

Yes, the population isn't as dense in Hawaii, and the slums aren't as bad as Bangladesh's, but it's casting doubt on temperature/humidity for me.

Still looking at vitamin D, though.
The case for vitamin D is moderate. I believe in it. Vitamin D is important in resistance to infections. Many of the patients (more than I'd expect even on the far side of winter) I have treated have had clinically significant Vitamin D deficiency. Vitamin D deficiency might partly explain increased severity in BAME people in the UK, and in the care homes. The NHS recommends everyone considers taking vitamin D supplements.
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Old 24th May 2020, 04:28 AM   #322
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
If vitamin D is involved researchers should look into the hair colour of the victims, you’d expect redheads to have less fatalities!
Unless all the education given to them about risks of skin cancer has resulted in them staying out of the sun and away from tanning booths!
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Old 24th May 2020, 09:26 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Unless all the education given to them about risks of skin cancer has resulted in them staying out of the sun and away from tanning booths!

We produce enough vitamin D with very little exposure to sunlight, apparently it is very unusual for redheads to be vitamin D deficient , so if vitamin D is somehow involved we would expect BAME to be more effected and redheads less.
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Old 24th May 2020, 01:00 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
If vitamin D is involved researchers should look into the hair colour of the victims, you’d expect redheads to have less fatalities!
Prince Charles!

While he's not a redhead, he spawned one, so the genes are there somewhere and he hardly got sick, while BoJo was in ICU.

Also, Ed Sheeran is still alive.

Actually an interesting point, because as you noted, gingers need very little sunlight. I doubt anyone's checked that!

Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Many of the patients (more than I'd expect even on the far side of winter) I have treated have had clinically significant Vitamin D deficiency.
That is very interesting and certainly in line with the studies.

Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Vitamin D deficiency might partly explain increased severity in BAME people in the UK, and in the care homes.
That's my thinking as well. I imagine older people in northern Italy get very little sun in winter and they've been among the hardest hit.
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Old 24th May 2020, 03:51 PM   #325
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Thinking more on this subject, and with the benefit of hindsight, vitamin D fits other issues as well.

Australia & NZ are top of that list.

In both cases, we have ultimate outdoor lifestyles, and with non-tropical sun (in most parts) pretty well everyone gets easily sufficient vitamin D from the sun.

Way back in the main science thread, I rhetorically questioned why neither country saw the explosive growth in case numbers, and why community transmission didn't become established. We both had early cases, lots of Chinese travellers, and some super-spreading events, yet nothing happened, aside from the odd old folks' home getting wiped out.

I imagine Hawaii fits the pattern as well - you don't go to Hawaii to stay in a hotel, and I expect the locals get plenty of sun.
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Old 24th May 2020, 05:00 PM   #326
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How fortunate the police were available to hunt the people back indoors.
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Old 24th May 2020, 06:42 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
How fortunate the police were available to hunt the people back indoors.
Utter bollocks - NZ never had an "indoors only" lockdown and nobody was told to go back inside.
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Old 24th May 2020, 07:03 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That is very interesting and certainly in line with the studies.



That's my thinking as well. I imagine older people in northern Italy get very little sun in winter and they've been among the hardest hit.
Another group of people with vitamin D deficiency could be generally low-income people especially in countries without a NHS. They don't visit a GP regularly because that costs money, so a GP won't spot the problem and tell them to take supplements. They may also be less likely to buy it on their own, again because they have more important things to spend money on, like food and rent.
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Old 24th May 2020, 07:07 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Utter bollocks - NZ never had an "indoors only" lockdown and nobody was told to go back inside.
International not New Zealand.
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Old 24th May 2020, 07:29 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
They may also be less likely to buy it on their own, again because they have more important things to spend money on, like food and rent.
Yep - at $20 a bottle of 100 pills, it's not something people at the bottom have money for.
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Old 24th May 2020, 08:15 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Prince Charles!

While he's not a redhead, he spawned one, so the genes are there somewhere and he hardly got sick, while BoJo was in ICU.
What, the redhead Prince Harry who happens to look exactly like the redhead James Hewitt, who was having an affair with Princess Di before Harry was born?
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Old 24th May 2020, 08:41 PM   #332
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Yeah, I've seen that theory.

I always wonder if Harry's tempted to do a DNA test.
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Old 24th May 2020, 09:04 PM   #333
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This turned up first line in google: Procalcitonin is an inflammatory marker which is induced by pro-inflammatory cytokines Furthermore, vitamin D can result in a reduction of the pro-inflammatory cytokines and thus, is supposed to indirectly reduce procalcitonin levels in serum (6).

They checked my Procalcitonin once when I was in hospital for a non-existant infection. It was normal witch they took as a broad signal that I was not infected. They had already sent me home by the time the results came back.

Just another data point or two, make of it whatever.
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Old 24th May 2020, 09:23 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Utter bollocks - NZ never had an "indoors only" lockdown and nobody was told to go back inside.

Denmark was the first country in Northern Europe to have a lockdown. I live in one of the first hotspots, and we were never told to stay indoors. On the contrary, and now that it's spring, people are encouraged to get outside (where the virus doesn't spread very well) and enjoy themselves, get some exercise and sun.
The idea of police forcing people to stay in their houses is a myth that Trumpists seem to be very fond of spreading for obvious reasons: Freeeeedom! USA! USA! You can pry my freedom to infect my compatriots from my cold, dead hands!
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Last edited by dann; 24th May 2020 at 09:27 PM.
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Old 24th May 2020, 09:39 PM   #335
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Brazil is not a good argument for the vitamin-D idea.
The country is moving fast up the list of both most cases and most per capita deaths.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 24th May 2020, 09:45 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
This turned up first line in google: Procalcitonin is an inflammatory marker which is induced by pro-inflammatory cytokines Furthermore, vitamin D can result in a reduction of the pro-inflammatory cytokines and thus, is supposed to indirectly reduce procalcitonin levels in serum (6).
I swear I've seen a lot of talk about cytokine storms lately...

Oh yeah, it was me, starting about 2 1/2 months ago.

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
They checked my Procalcitonin once...
Or was that just what the proctologist told you?

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Just another data point or two, make of it whatever.
Cheers.

I'd been taking a long look at vitamin D ages before the pandemic, because it's a major contributor to auto-immune disease, and my son had some of that so badly he lost a foot of his large intestine two years ago.

And the cases of the disease he had - Henoch-Schonlein purpura - just about always manifests at the start of spring, when D levels are at their lowest.

I couldn't figure out even then why so little research had been done on vitamin D, and it still beats the hell out of me. Hopefully all that will change now.

Originally Posted by dann View Post
Denmark was the first country in Northern Europe to have a lockdown. I live in one of the first hotspots, and we were never told to stay indoors.
It was just Samson being obscure, as he likes to do occasionally.

Spain is the only country I can think of that ordered people to stay indoors.
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Old 25th May 2020, 12:42 AM   #337
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Italy had very strict rules about going outside:

Quote:
When can you go outside?
You are allowed to go outside for one of the following reasons:
An urgent, demonstrable work-related reason.
Health reasons, for example a doctor's appointment.
"Situations of need", for example to buy food.
(The Local.it, March 10/April 8, 2020)

In Denmark, there were no restrictions on visiting family or friends (unless they were in nursing homes). You could go outside as often and wherever you wanted, but many places you would have wanted to go to in normal circumstances were closed, of course.
From what I've noticed in the news, the police were only active in some of the parks where people started gathering in groups of more than 10, and there were a few cases of bars staying open and some shops that weren't supposed to be open.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th May 2020, 03:45 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Brazil is not a good argument for the vitamin-D idea.
The country is moving fast up the list of both most cases and most per capita deaths.
The problem with people who live in tropical and sub-tropical climates is that they usually also have darker skin which is less effective at producing vitamin D. There is also more poverty which means their immune system could be compromised from other things, like a generally poor diet, or poor hygiene conditions.
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Old 25th May 2020, 04:32 AM   #339
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Posted in the other thread but perhaps useful here

https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-...ting-covid-19/
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Old 25th May 2020, 02:50 PM   #340
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Thanks Darat - very important that, like almost all other drugs, more is not better.

Stick to the recommended dose - extra will not help and absolutely may harm you.
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Old 25th May 2020, 02:59 PM   #341
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Ok, now there are some studies being done on vitamin D, there appears to be an avalanche of support for vitamin D.

Links to relevant articles here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com...2#post13101492

The territories doing very well at controlling Covid appear to all be in the high vitamin D group - while the countries doing badly have masses of D deficient people.

It seems to me to fit all the evidence so far and I expect that to continue.

How ironic would it be that having spent ~$20T on a virus if it was a simple 20-cent pill that proved the answer?
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Old 25th May 2020, 07:00 PM   #342
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Originally Posted by dann;13100939
The idea of police forcing people to stay in their houses is a myth that Trumpists seem to be very fond of spreading for obvious reasons: [I
Freeeeedom! USA! USA! You can pry my freedom to infect my compatriots from my cold, dead hands![/i]
Where do you get this stuff?
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Old 29th May 2020, 12:47 PM   #343
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Prince Charles!

While he's not a redhead, he spawned one, so the genes are there somewhere and he hardly got sick, while BoJo was in ICU.

Also, Ed Sheeran is still alive.

Actually an interesting point, because as you noted, gingers need very little sunlight. I doubt anyone's checked that!



That is very interesting and certainly in line with the studies.



That's my thinking as well. I imagine older people in northern Italy get very little sun in winter and they've been among the hardest hit.
The highlighted? Really? 9b74e5722f2f807a2eabed0c10d78a90.jpg
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Old 29th May 2020, 02:48 PM   #344
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The other side of the territory anomaly is places that were hit harder than others, and there's a good piece her on Lombardy: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-other-regions

Very noticeable that the further south you get in Italy, the less harm was done. I'd love to know the relative vitamin D levels between the average northerner and southerner at the end of winter.
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Old 29th May 2020, 11:24 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The other side of the territory anomaly is places that were hit harder than others, and there's a good piece her on Lombardy: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-other-regions

Very noticeable that the further south you get in Italy, the less harm was done. I'd love to know the relative vitamin D levels between the average northerner and southerner at the end of winter.
That article is sober reading. Early warnings from GPs ignored, factories remaining open throughout, football matches... I get why there is investigation into criminal negligence. Is criminal stupidity a thing?

Perhaps it's about population density, but I also noticed this: ...the transfer of hospital patients to care homes in order to alleviate the pressure on wards were also believed to have contributed to the high death and contagion rate.



ETA: Perhaps there is a vitamin D connection here. Italians traditionally consume a lot of olive oil. That doesn't contain vitamin D naturally but is apparently being fortified with it, like some other countries do with milk and other food staples. Is it possible that the wealthier northerners have largely abandoned traditional foods for a more "continental" style of eating?

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Old 29th May 2020, 11:45 PM   #346
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Here's another strange one, from Canada (Map here):
(Provinces are listed in alphabetical order, not geographic)

Province, territory or other
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Deaths/million
Population
Alberta
6,979
143
32.4
4,413,146
British Columbia
2,562
164
32.1
5,110,917
Manitoba
294
7
5.1
1,377,517
Newfoundland and Labrador
261
3
5.8
521,365
New Brunswick
128
0
0.0
779,993
Northwest Territories
5
0
0.0
44,904
Nova Scotia
1,055
59
60.4
977,457
Nunavut
0
0
0.0
39,097
Ontario
27,210
2,230
151.6
14,711,827
Prince Edward Island
27
0
0.0
158,158
Quebec
50,232
4,363
511.0
8,537,674
Saskatchewan
641
10
8.5
1,181,666
Yukon
11
0
0.0
41,078
Canada
89,418
6,979
184.5
37,825,757


Aside from Prince Edward Island, the highlighted provinces are similar in population. But look at Nova Scotia: its total deaths and rate per million population are huge compared to the other highlighted provinces. In addition, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are right beside each other, and New Brunswick shares a land border with Quebec, which has a relatively huge death rate.

What is New Brunswick doing right? What did Nova Scotia do wrong?
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Old 30th May 2020, 12:26 AM   #347
Ulf Nereng
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
Here's another strange one, from Canada (Map here):
(Provinces are listed in alphabetical order, not geographic)

Province, territory or other
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Deaths/million
Population
Alberta
6,979
143
32.4
4,413,146
British Columbia
2,562
164
32.1
5,110,917
Manitoba
294
7
5.1
1,377,517
Newfoundland and Labrador
261
3
5.8
521,365
New Brunswick
128
0
0.0
779,993
Northwest Territories
5
0
0.0
44,904
Nova Scotia
1,055
59
60.4
977,457
Nunavut
0
0
0.0
39,097
Ontario
27,210
2,230
151.6
14,711,827
Prince Edward Island
27
0
0.0
158,158
Quebec
50,232
4,363
511.0
8,537,674
Saskatchewan
641
10
8.5
1,181,666
Yukon
11
0
0.0
41,078
Canada
89,418
6,979
184.5
37,825,757


Aside from Prince Edward Island, the highlighted provinces are similar in population. But look at Nova Scotia: its total deaths and rate per million population are huge compared to the other highlighted provinces. In addition, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are right beside each other, and New Brunswick shares a land border with Quebec, which has a relatively huge death rate.

What is New Brunswick doing right? What did Nova Scotia do wrong?
I think it looks like population density. Nova Scotia has a major commercial city in Halifax and Wikipedia says the province is the second most densely populated province in Canada. About new Brunswick it says this: "Atypically for Canada, only about half of the population lives in urban areas"
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Old 30th May 2020, 01:32 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
I think it looks like population density. Nova Scotia has a major commercial city in Halifax and Wikipedia says the province is the second most densely populated province in Canada. About new Brunswick it says this: "Atypically for Canada, only about half of the population lives in urban areas"
That's a good analysis.

As it turns out, 53 of the deaths in Nova Scotia are from a single facility: Nova Scotia records 60th COVID-19 death, 53rd at Northwood [cbc.ca] Take that one out of the picture and Nova Scotia is doing as well as Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Once again, the pandemic in Canada has shone a not so flattering light on long term care homes.
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Old 30th May 2020, 02:14 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
That article is sober reading. Early warnings from GPs ignored, factories remaining open throughout, football matches... I get why there is investigation into criminal negligence. Is criminal stupidity a thing?
As I recall, Italy is the country that tried to prosecute some scientists for not predicting an earthquake a couple of years ago, so there's certainly precedent for it.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Perhaps it's about population density, but I also noticed this: ...the transfer of hospital patients to care homes in order to alleviate the pressure on wards were also believed to have contributed to the high death and contagion rate.

That would reach the bar for any criminal negligence action.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
ETA: Perhaps there is a vitamin D connection here. Italians traditionally consume a lot of olive oil. That doesn't contain vitamin D naturally but is apparently being fortified with it, like some other countries do with milk and other food staples. Is it possible that the wealthier northerners have largely abandoned traditional foods for a more "continental" style of eating?
At this stage, almost anything's possible until proven otherwise.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
I think it looks like population density. Nova Scotia has a major commercial city in Halifax and Wikipedia says the province is the second most densely populated province in Canada. About new Brunswick it says this: "Atypically for Canada, only about half of the population lives in urban areas"
It's always going to spread more easily in urban settings.

Also, it's very early in the piece to reach conclusions when the epidemic is only 10% of the way through - there was a time when Canada stood out for its low numbers, but not any more.

Right now, Canada's death rate/1M people is 188. If you sort countries by population, the only one anywhere near Canada's rate with similar population is Peru, and it's still only 3/4 of Canada, but with a much lower case/fatality rate.
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Old 1st June 2020, 05:37 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Where do you get this stuff?

Watching the paroles of anti-lockdown protesters:

Quote:
The question in Michigan and other scenes of armed protests against coronavirus restrictions is not whether states have struck the proper balance between public health and other considerations. Nor is it even whether governments have exceeded their legitimate authority. The question the would-be rebels must answer is whether social-distancing measures are so tyrannical that they are willing to take the extraconstitutional step of rebellion. They can either claim or relinquish the Constitution’s protections. They cannot have both.
Anti-Lockdown Rebels Don’t Get to Choose Their Own Constitution (NYT, May 31, 2020)
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Old 2nd June 2020, 11:08 AM   #351
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Health experts say UK contact tracing not robust enough (New Scientist, June 2, 2020)

Reopening without robust contact tracing is a bad idea.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 3rd June 2020, 09:34 AM   #352
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
Here's another strange one, from Canada (Map here):
(Provinces are listed in alphabetical order, not geographic)

Province, territory or other
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Deaths/million
Population
Alberta
6,979
143
32.4
4,413,146
British Columbia
2,562
164
32.1
5,110,917
Manitoba
294
7
5.1
1,377,517
Newfoundland and Labrador
261
3
5.8
521,365
New Brunswick
128
0
0.0
779,993
Northwest Territories
5
0
0.0
44,904
Nova Scotia
1,055
59
60.4
977,457
Nunavut
0
0
0.0
39,097
Ontario
27,210
2,230
151.6
14,711,827
Prince Edward Island
27
0
0.0
158,158
Quebec
50,232
4,363
511.0
8,537,674
Saskatchewan
641
10
8.5
1,181,666
Yukon
11
0
0.0
41,078
Canada
89,418
6,979
184.5
37,825,757


Aside from Prince Edward Island, the highlighted provinces are similar in population. But look at Nova Scotia: its total deaths and rate per million population are huge compared to the other highlighted provinces. In addition, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are right beside each other, and New Brunswick shares a land border with Quebec, which has a relatively huge death rate.

What is New Brunswick doing right? What did Nova Scotia do wrong?
Halifax is a major port and serves as both the economic hub for the entire Maritime Region but also the transportation hub for the entire region. Tourism is also a likely contributor. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI all have Tourism as significant elements of their economy, but most of these tourists pass though Halifax. Halifax is also a relatively frequent stop for cruise ships.

It makes sense that Halifax would be hit first and hardest.
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Old 3rd June 2020, 10:50 AM   #353
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Watching the paroles of anti-lockdown protesters:
How in the hell was it a myth? And further, it was trump who was actually the one pushing it early on. Find fuel for your bigotry in reality instead, there's plenty to go on instead of this weird fantasy stuff
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Old 3rd June 2020, 02:38 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Halifax is a major port and serves as both the economic hub for the entire Maritime Region but also the transportation hub for the entire region. Tourism is also a likely contributor. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI all have Tourism as significant elements of their economy, but most of these tourists pass though Halifax. Halifax is also a relatively frequent stop for cruise ships.

It makes sense that Halifax would be hit first and hardest.
Thanks. That explains the additional cases over and above the one very hard hit care facility.
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Old 4th June 2020, 01:30 AM   #355
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
How in the hell was it a myth? And further, it was trump who was actually the one pushing it early on. Find fuel for your bigotry in reality instead, there's plenty to go on instead of this weird fantasy stuff

Trump pushing what exactly? He has been all over the place: We have it all under control, it will go away in April, no need to do anything, no real danger, fake news invented by Democrats, real threat but caused by China in collusion with WHO, hydroxy, bleach, ...
If your point is that right-wing protests against the lockdowns were instigated by Trump, then I absolutely agree, but I'm really not sure if that is what you are talking about.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 4th June 2020, 02:36 AM   #356
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Just a quick note - this is the territory thread, not the US Politics & Covid, or the Trump & Covid...
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Old 4th June 2020, 03:12 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just a quick note - this is the territory thread, not the US Politics & Covid, or the Trump & Covid...

You are right, but a president enticing right-wing anti-lockdown protesters is a territory anomaly that the USA shares with Brazil only, and it seems to help spread the virus, so it should be taken into account when looking at those two countries. I don't know if you can find a vitamin D angle to the behaviour of the two presidents.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 4th June 2020, 02:10 PM   #358
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Is that where the goalposts have gone? Because this is YOUR quote I was responding to

"The idea of police forcing people to stay in their houses is a myth that Trumpists seem to be very fond of spreading for obvious reasons:"

It is 100% wrong. And likely has nothing to do with where one part of the country (under trump) is so different than another part of the country (also under trump)

Please keep tribal nonsense politics out of this
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Old 5th June 2020, 01:56 PM   #359
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Diet might be a factor. Vitamin K deficiency may make Covid-19 symptoms more serious.

Quote:
Janssen added: “We have [vitamin] K1 and K2. K1 is in spinach, broccoli, green vegetables, blueberries, all types of fruit and vegetables. K2 is better absorbed by the body. It is in Dutch cheese, I have to say, and French cheese as well.”

A Japanese delicacy of fermented soya beans called natto is particularly high in the second type of vitamin K and there may be cause for further studies into its health benefits, Janssen said.

“I have worked with a Japanese scientist in London and she said it was remarkable that in the regions in Japan where they eat a lot of natto, there is not a single person to die of Covid-19; so that is something to dive into, I would say.”
Having experienced natto close up (I couldn't bring myself to actually eat it), I'm not sure which is worst.
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Old 5th June 2020, 04:32 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Having experienced natto close up (I couldn't bring myself to actually eat it), I'm not sure which is worst.
Fermented soy beans...

Pretty sure I could give that a miss. Pills are fine.
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