Bitcoin - Part 2 - Page 3

psionl0 · 13th September 2014, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by Belz...

Yeah but you can convert them to calories which (unfortunately) tend to stick around for decades.

Another good reason to prefer ~~raw sewerage~~ bitcoins over hot dogs.

Belz... · 13th September 2014, 06:16 PM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Another good reason to prefer ~~raw sewerage~~ bitcoins over hot dogs.

I don't know. Often times we speculatory things like BTC you end up sticking with them, hoping they reach some mythical value at some point, only to see them crash and become valueless, much like calories.

TeapotCavalry · 14th September 2014, 06:29 AM

Originally Posted by Belz...

I don't know. Often times we speculatory things like BTC you end up sticking with them, hoping they reach some mythical value at some point, only to see them crash and become valueless, much like calories.

Well, if you're into resistance training, calories reach almost a mythical value for they are necessary to maintain your awesome beachbro sixpack and biceps. If you just sit on them, then they sure become less useful.

Octavo · 17th September 2014, 12:55 AM

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

And I'll make an avatar bet that Coinbase is hacked before the end of the year. It's just too tempting a target for the scammers..

The bet is that Coinbase.com will be hacked (and bitcoins stolen) somewhere between September 2014 and 1 January 2015. The breech must be significant enough to be covered by major media outlets.

If you agree to those terms, I'll take that bet.

jhunter1163 · 17th September 2014, 04:12 AM

Originally Posted by Octavo

The bet is that Coinbase.com will be hacked (and bitcoins stolen) somewhere between September 2014 and 1 January 2015. The breech must be significant enough to be covered by major media outlets.

If you agree to those terms, I'll take that bet.

Since any breach would probably make the news, I'll agree. I'll sport the avatar of your choice for a week should that not happen.

Octavo · 17th September 2014, 06:02 AM

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

Since any breach would probably make the news, I'll agree. I'll sport the avatar of your choice for a week should that not happen.

Excellent - my very first avatar bet!

Belz... · 18th September 2014, 11:41 AM

Down to 421 right now.

jhunter1163 · 21st September 2014, 02:40 PM

An even $400 now.

www.preev.com

EGarrett · 23rd September 2014, 11:35 AM

More news about the "death of Bitcoin:"

In a blog post penned by senior director of corporate strategy Scott Ellison, PayPal revealed that online merchants will now be able to accept bitcoin via all three companies through its PayPal Payments Hub, its product that enables its customers to accept credit card, mobile carrier payments and other payment methods through a single integration.

Ellison lauded BitPay, Coinbase and GoCoin for their commitment to ensuring consumer protections on their platforms, while suggesting that the offering will appeal to a number of its key customer groups, writing:

“We believe digital goods merchants will be excited to work with these industry-leading companies to sell ringtones, games and music and get paid with bitcoin.”

And...

...Credit card companies and other traditional payment providers usually charge nonprofits the same as commercial organisations, about 3–4% per transaction.

Bitcoin, though, offers significant savings for charities by doing away with these fees.

Bitcoin’s cost benefit

BitPay and other payment providers like Coinbase do not charge fees for nonprofits, meaning the entire donation is delivered to the charity.

BitPay non-profit account manager Elizabeth Ploshay said the company strives to bring bitcoin to nonprofits like Greenpeace.

“For each bitcoin donation, Greenpeace gets 100% of what is being donated, increasing the amount of each donation received,” she said.

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

The bolded:

is essentially what I said in post 60:

and in the previous thread at #4684:

and in the previous thread at #4409:

I'm not really sure where you get the idea that I think BTC is inherently bad. It's not a good investment, it's not a good currency, and over the long haul I think it's going to be either legislated out of existence or crushed by competition, but the tech is not going to magically disappear. There is clearly a market for a secure and anonymous store of value, and some bank (or banks) will service that market.

Are you accountable for your past behavior and your provably wrong predictions? Yes or no?

...and this does not mean that your behavior or what you and others have said won't be brought up again if you try to handwave this away or not answer.

EGarrett · 23rd September 2014, 11:45 AM

Originally Posted by Octavo

Excellent - my very first avatar bet!

He appears to be the only Bitcoin-Doom-Prognosticator left in this topic over time. In the last few years, the others, nearly to a man, have embarrassed themselves and disappeared completely. Look at the person in my sig.

Jhunter is only sticking around by trying to ignore his own past claims. I wouldn't take any bet with someone who has a selective memory like that.

jhunter1163 · 23rd September 2014, 12:51 PM

Originally Posted by EGarrett

Are you accountable for your past behavior and your provably wrong predictions? Yes or no?

...and this does not mean that your behavior or what you and others have said won't be brought up again if you try to handwave this away or not answer.

As I've said, I stand by every statement I've made in this thread. I'm not sure how much more "accountable" I can be. If I've made "provably wrong" predictions, then I've been wrong; it wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last. However, I still think that BTC is destined for the memory hole over the long term; the only real question is how long it will take for it to die.

And, as an aside, I would suggest that you moderate your tone a bit. Just sayin'.

Octavo · 23rd September 2014, 10:11 PM

Originally Posted by EGarrett

He appears to be the only Bitcoin-Doom-Prognosticator left in this topic over time. In the last few years, the others, nearly to a man, have embarrassed themselves and disappeared completely. Look at the person in my sig.

The scrut quote is particularly amusing I have to say

Originally Posted by EGarrett

Jhunter is only sticking around by trying to ignore his own past claims. I wouldn't take any bet with someone who has a selective memory like that.

I hear your frustration, but you're being uncharitable here.

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

As I've said, I stand by every statement I've made in this thread. I'm not sure how much more "accountable" I can be. If I've made "provably wrong" predictions, then I've been wrong; it wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last. However, I still think that BTC is destined for the memory hole over the long term; the only real question is how long it will take for it to die.

That's kind of weaselly though. If I claimed the telegraph was destined for the memory hole in 1837 I'd be right eventually too.

Almo · 24th September 2014, 08:00 AM

Bitcoin doesn't work well as a currency, as has been explained. Perhaps it will eventually, but it doesn't now.

Donal · 24th September 2014, 09:12 AM

I don't think Bitcoin itself will ever gain wide acceptance as a currency. However, I do see cryptocurrency becoming widely accepted, provided some central banking institution is behind it.

Brian-M · 24th September 2014, 11:01 AM

Originally Posted by Donal

I don't think Bitcoin itself will ever gain wide acceptance as a currency. However, I do see cryptocurrency becoming widely accepted, provided some central banking institution is behind it.

If some central banking institution were behind it there would be no point in having a cryptocurrency at all. Encrypted transactions of funds between accounts containing non-cryptographic currencies would be a far more efficient way to do thing.

The entire point of cryptocurrencies is that they're decentralized and function independently of governments, corporations, banks and financial institutions.

But I agree that Bitcoin is far from ideal as a practical currency, which is why some other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, were invented. Eventually some non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency will become more ubiquitous than Bitcoin, or maybe the Bitcoin protocols will gradually change.

Donal · 25th September 2014, 07:45 AM

You're going to need some large institution backing the currency and making plans in case there is rapid inflation or deflation.

Tippit · 25th September 2014, 12:18 PM

Originally Posted by Donal

You're going to need some large institution backing the currency and making plans in case there is rapid inflation or deflation.

Or, you could just have a free market in money, without the theft masquerading as central planning. I know. Perish the thought.

Belz... · 25th September 2014, 02:55 PM

How free do you see this market, exactly ?

psionl0 · 25th September 2014, 04:48 PM

Originally Posted by Donal

You're going to need some large institution backing the currency and making plans in case there is rapid inflation or deflation.

Why?

Tolls · 26th September 2014, 01:07 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Why?

Well, at least as things stand, there's still an awful lot of people who view it with suspicion and more who see it as a novelty. Neither of which help it as a currency.

Even the companies that accept bitcoins seem to only be doing so with a view to having it turned into "real" money ASAP, hence not risking losing out.

Not that a currency needs the backing of a large institution, but I do think (and this thread has plenty of examples in the form of posters) that it's the current perception of the public in general that bitcoin and the like are a bit too Wild West for their comfort.

It'll be interesting to see how it develops and whether the perception of the general population changes towards it.
I mean, after last years roller coaster I'm quite surprised by the relative stability its shown recently. I was expecting more of the same...so I'm not going to make any predictions, that's for sure.

AdMan · 26th September 2014, 02:42 AM

Originally Posted by Donal

I don't think Bitcoin itself will ever gain wide acceptance as a currency. However, I do see cryptocurrency becoming widely accepted, provided some central banking institution is behind it.

Is anonymity still an important characteristic of Bitcoin, and if so how does that fit in with it being behind a central banking institution?

stevea · 26th September 2014, 02:48 AM

Just curious - does anyone here actual hold much in bitcoin ? I mean serious savings amount and not just a few $k ?

I have a feeling that BTC is more interesting to talk about than it is practical to use.

I've never used it.

Brian-M · 26th September 2014, 03:24 AM

Originally Posted by stevea

Just curious - does anyone here actual hold much in bitcoin ? I mean serious savings amount and not just a few $k ?

No, but here's my two cents: https://blockchain.info/address/1F6C...jibzgrANCmqQR1

Heh. I've been waiting a while to make that pun. At the moment, two cents of Bitcoin comes to around eight US dollars.

Tippit · 26th September 2014, 12:42 PM

Originally Posted by stevea

Just curious - does anyone here actual hold much in bitcoin ? I mean serious savings amount and not just a few $k ?

I have a feeling that BTC is more interesting to talk about than it is practical to use.

I've never used it.

I have a friend who has about 35,000 BTC. When it was trading higher than an ounce of gold, it was a serious chunk of change.

Brian-M · 26th September 2014, 06:49 PM

Originally Posted by Tippit

I have a friend who has about 35,000 BTC. When it was trading higher than an ounce of gold, it was a serious chunk of change.

So now that the value of his bitcoins has gone down to $14 million US dollars, that's not a serious chunk of change?

jhunter1163 · 27th September 2014, 06:29 AM

Originally Posted by Brian-M

So now that the value of his bitcoins has gone down to $14 million US dollars, that's not a serious chunk of change?

The "value" of his BTC isn't anything close to $14 million. There's no way he could get anything approaching that much money out of them, unless he accepts hacked Starbucks cards.

Brian-M · 27th September 2014, 08:13 AM

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

The "value" of his BTC isn't anything close to $14 million. There's no way he could get anything approaching that much money out of them, unless he accepts hacked Starbucks cards.

Why couldn't he sell them on an exchange? Take a look at this volume chart...

https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts#USD-volumes-1m

Most days see more than 10,000 bitcoins traded for USD, sometimes more than 30,000 bitcoins. The 30th of August saw more than 70,000 bitcoins traded for USD in a single day.

Although, that's the combined volume for a whole bunch of different exchanges, but there shouldn't be a problem if he gradually sells them off in a couple of different exchanges over several months.

Hell, if he's willing to sell them cheap to get some quick cash he shouldn't have a problem. Take a look at this market depth chart for the Bitstamp exchange...

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD_depth.html

From what I see, if he's willing to accept $340 for them, he could sell 10,000 bitcoins straight away for an instant $3.4 million, and still have 25,000 bitcoins left.

jhunter1163 · 27th September 2014, 02:07 PM

Originally Posted by Brian-M

Why couldn't he sell them on an exchange? Take a look at this volume chart...

https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts#USD-volumes-1m

Most days see more than 10,000 bitcoins traded for USD, sometimes more than 30,000 bitcoins. The 30th of August saw more than 70,000 bitcoins traded for USD in a single day.

Although, that's the combined volume for a whole bunch of different exchanges, but there shouldn't be a problem if he gradually sells them off in a couple of different exchanges over several months.

Hell, if he's willing to sell them cheap to get some quick cash he shouldn't have a problem. Take a look at this market depth chart for the Bitstamp exchange...

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD_depth.html

From what I see, if he's willing to accept $340 for them, he could sell 10,000 bitcoins straight away for an instant $3.4 million, and still have 25,000 bitcoins left.

This has been a major objection of mine all along; the lack of liquidity in the BTC system. There's probably not $14 million in fiat in the system among all of the exchanges. So this guy's $14 million is a paper fortune; even worse, it's virtual paper and could easily evaporate entirely.

Tippit · 27th September 2014, 02:45 PM

Originally Posted by Belz...

That does not counter what JHunter said. How can you liquidate those BTC ?

Uh, there were ~90,000 BTC transacted in just the last 24h, and the market cap is just under $6 billion. I'm not going to bother to link to the stats, you can look them up. Clearly the market is deep enough for him to liquidate his BTC, just not all on one day.

jhunter1163 · 27th September 2014, 02:47 PM

Originally Posted by Tippit

Uh, there were ~90,000 BTC transacted in just the last 24h, and the market cap is just under $6 billion. I'm not going to bother to link to the stats, you can look them up. Clearly the market is deep enough for him to liquidate his BTC, just not all on one day.

How many of those transactions were BTC to USD, and how many were BTC to BTC?

Belz... · 27th September 2014, 02:51 PM

Originally Posted by Tippit

Uh, there were ~90,000 BTC transacted in just the last 24h, and the market cap is just under $6 billion.

That doesn't answer my question: how do you liquidate those BTC in short order ? If you can't get USD for your BTC, then they are not worth that amount.

Tippit · 27th September 2014, 02:53 PM

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

How many of those transactions were BTC to USD, and how many were BTC to BTC?

https://blockchain.info/charts/estim...ion-volume-usd

So, the USD volume has been hovering around $50 million a day. Divide that by the USD price to get the BTC volume. Why would anyone trade bitcoin for bitcoin, what kind of transactions are you talking about?

Bitcoin may or may not be in a bubble, but you are living in a bubble.

jhunter1163 · 27th September 2014, 03:41 PM

Originally Posted by Tippit

https://blockchain.info/charts/estim...ion-volume-usd

So, the USD volume has been hovering around $50 million a day. Divide that by the USD price to get the BTC volume. Why would anyone trade bitcoin for bitcoin, what kind of transactions are you talking about?

Bitcoin may or may not be in a bubble, but you are living in a bubble.

IIRC about one-quarter of all BTC transactions are on a single gaming site. On that site, you bet BTC and win BTC. No USD ever changes hands. There's also the illegal trade; obviously, no one knows how large a market that is, but again, no USD is changing hands.

I would be very surprised if any significant amount of BTC is being redeemed for cash simply because it's so difficult to do it. eBay and Overstock accepting BTC is great news for BTC holders; they can use their BTC there, get some value for their money, and wash their hands of the whole thing.

I'm curious as to how soon Coinbase is required to pay eBay and Overstock their USD. I can't imagine it's very long.

Brian-M · 27th September 2014, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

I would be very surprised if any significant amount of BTC is being redeemed for cash simply because it's so difficult to do it.

What exactly do you call significant? I pointed out in my last post that most days see more than 10,000 bitcoins being redeemed for cash. Is $4 million a day not significant?

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

eBay and Overstock accepting BTC is great news for BTC holders; they can use their BTC there, get some value for their money, and wash their hands of the whole thing.

I somehow doubt it'd be more convenient for a person to spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in bitcoin on eBay than it would be to simply trade the bitcoin directly for cash on an exchange.

psionl0 · 27th September 2014, 06:46 PM

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

IIRC about one-quarter of all BTC transactions are on a single gaming site.

Making up facts is so much fun!

jhunter1163 · 28th September 2014, 07:48 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Making up facts is so much fun!

Oh, come now. This is a skeptics' site. Surely you didn't think I would be unable to back up my assertion?

And, actually, I understated the percentage; according to this article, gambling represents almost half of all BTC transactions.

http://arstechnica.com/business/2013...-transactions/

jhunter1163 · 28th September 2014, 07:52 AM

Originally Posted by Brian-M

I somehow doubt it'd be more convenient for a person to spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in bitcoin on eBay than it would be to simply trade the bitcoin directly for cash on an exchange.

You haven't read up too much on the adventures people have had in trying to get their money out of exchanges, have you?

psionl0 · 28th September 2014, 01:56 PM

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

Oh, come now. This is a skeptics' site. Surely you didn't think I would be unable to back up my assertion?

And, actually, I understated the percentage; according to this article, gambling represents almost half of all BTC transactions.

http://arstechnica.com/business/2013...-transactions/

You really should learn to read past the headlines. The devil is in the detail and never the twain shall meet.

Based on the number of bitcoin transactions, the article calculates that for the month of June 2013, transactions involving satoshi dice account for 25% to 50% of that number. Even then, that would assume that multiple destination transactions where satoshi dice is one of them are counted solely as a satoshi dice transaction.

However, when you include the number of bitcoins per transaction, you get a very different story.

Quote:

Still, SatoshiDice transactions tend to be smaller. If you look at average daily transaction volume for June, SatoshiDice only constitutes 5 percent of daily Bitcoin transaction volume.

The article tries to bolster that figure by including bitzino (which reported "that 3.2 million wagers were made in the second half of 2012"). Of course this doesn't wash since a single bitzino deposit can result in many wagers - especially if the gambler is lucky.

So yes, 50% is a made up "fact". The only difference is that you aren't the one who made it up. You just uncritically took a headline as gospel.

Originally Posted by jhunter1163

You haven't read up too much on the adventures people have had in trying to get their money out of exchanges, have you?

MtGox died therefore ALL bitcoin exchanges have difficulty cashing out withdrawals?

Seriously, a rock could come up with better critical thinking than you do.

jhunter1163 · 28th September 2014, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by psionl0

You really should learn to read past the headlines. The devil is in the detail and never the twain shall meet.

Based on the number of bitcoin transactions, the article calculates that for the month of June 2013, transactions involving satoshi dice account for 25% to 50% of that number. Even then, that would assume that multiple destination transactions where satoshi dice is one of them are counted solely as a satoshi dice transaction.

However, when you include the number of bitcoins per transaction, you get a very different story.
The article tries to bolster that figure by including bitzino (which reported "that 3.2 million wagers were made in the second half of 2012"). Of course this doesn't wash since a single bitzino deposit can result in many wagers - especially if the gambler is lucky.

So yes, 50% is a made up "fact". The only difference is that you aren't the one who made it up. You just uncritically took a headline as gospel.

MtGox died therefore ALL bitcoin exchanges have difficulty cashing out withdrawals?

Seriously, a rock could come up with better critical thinking than you do.

All right then. Show me an exchange where I can cash out 10,000 BTC in 24 hours. If you can, I will withdraw my assertion.

ETA: If I had $4.2 million in my Scottrade account, I could have a cashier's check in my hand in 24 hours if I wanted. Just sayin'.

jhunter1163 · 28th September 2014, 02:13 PM

And it sure looks like BTC gambling is a booming business, still.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling

13th September 2014, 03:58 PM	#81
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 13,072	Originally Posted by Belz... Yeah but you can convert them to calories which (unfortunately) tend to stick around for decades. Another good reason to prefer ~~raw sewerage~~ bitcoins over hot dogs.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

13th September 2014, 06:16 PM	#82
Belz... Fiend God Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: In the details Posts: 73,316	Originally Posted by psionl0 Another good reason to prefer ~~raw sewerage~~ bitcoins over hot dogs. I don't know. Often times we speculatory things like BTC you end up sticking with them, hoping they reach some mythical value at some point, only to see them crash and become valueless, much like calories.
	__________________ Master of the Shining Darkness

14th September 2014, 06:29 AM	#83
TeapotCavalry Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Estonia Posts: 2,116	Originally Posted by Belz... I don't know. Often times we speculatory things like BTC you end up sticking with them, hoping they reach some mythical value at some point, only to see them crash and become valueless, much like calories. Well, if you're into resistance training, calories reach almost a mythical value for they are necessary to maintain your awesome beachbro sixpack and biceps. If you just sit on them, then they sure become less useful.
	__________________ “That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.” – Christopher Hitchens.

18th September 2014, 11:41 AM	#87
Belz... Fiend God Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: In the details Posts: 73,316	Down to 421 right now.
	__________________ Master of the Shining Darkness

23rd September 2014, 11:35 AM	#89
EGarrett Illuminator Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 3,086	More news about the "death of Bitcoin:" In a blog post penned by senior director of corporate strategy Scott Ellison, PayPal revealed that online merchants will now be able to accept bitcoin via all three companies through its PayPal Payments Hub, its product that enables its customers to accept credit card, mobile carrier payments and other payment methods through a single integration. Ellison lauded BitPay, Coinbase and GoCoin for their commitment to ensuring consumer protections on their platforms, while suggesting that the offering will appeal to a number of its key customer groups, writing: “We believe digital goods merchants will be excited to work with these industry-leading companies to sell ringtones, games and music and get paid with bitcoin.” And... ...Credit card companies and other traditional payment providers usually charge nonprofits the same as commercial organisations, about 3–4% per transaction. Bitcoin, though, offers significant savings for charities by doing away with these fees. Bitcoin’s cost benefit BitPay and other payment providers like Coinbase do not charge fees for nonprofits, meaning the entire donation is delivered to the charity. BitPay non-profit account manager Elizabeth Ploshay said the company strives to bring bitcoin to nonprofits like Greenpeace. “For each bitcoin donation, Greenpeace gets 100% of what is being donated, increasing the amount of each donation received,” she said. Originally Posted by jhunter1163 The bolded: is essentially what I said in post 60: and in the previous thread at #4684: and in the previous thread at #4409: I'm not really sure where you get the idea that I think BTC is inherently bad. It's not a good investment, it's not a good currency, and over the long haul I think it's going to be either legislated out of existence or crushed by competition, but the tech is not going to magically disappear. There is clearly a market for a secure and anonymous store of value, and some bank (or banks) will service that market. Are you accountable for your past behavior and your provably wrong predictions? Yes or no? ...and this does not mean that your behavior or what you and others have said won't be brought up again if you try to handwave this away or not answer.
EGarrett Illuminator Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 3,086	__________________ "So if a tard came up to me and offered to sell me 10 bitcoins for $100, not only would I not do it, I think I'd punch him in the head, just for being stupid." -The Central Scrutinizer

17th September 2014, 12:55 AM	#84
Octavo Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: South Africa Posts: 3,485	Originally Posted by jhunter1163 And I'll make an avatar bet that Coinbase is hacked before the end of the year. It's just too tempting a target for the scammers.. The bet is that Coinbase.com will be hacked (and bitcoins stolen) somewhere between September 2014 and 1 January 2015. The breech must be significant enough to be covered by major media outlets. If you agree to those terms, I'll take that bet.

17th September 2014, 04:12 AM	#85
jhunter1163 beer-swilling semiliterate Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes. Posts: 25,058	Originally Posted by Octavo The bet is that Coinbase.com will be hacked (and bitcoins stolen) somewhere between September 2014 and 1 January 2015. The breech must be significant enough to be covered by major media outlets. If you agree to those terms, I'll take that bet. Since any breach would probably make the news, I'll agree. I'll sport the avatar of your choice for a week should that not happen.

17th September 2014, 06:02 AM	#86
Octavo Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: South Africa Posts: 3,485	Originally Posted by jhunter1163 Since any breach would probably make the news, I'll agree. I'll sport the avatar of your choice for a week should that not happen. Excellent - my very first avatar bet!

21st September 2014, 02:40 PM	#88
jhunter1163 beer-swilling semiliterate Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes. Posts: 25,058	An even $400 now. www.preev.com

23rd September 2014, 11:45 AM	#90
EGarrett Illuminator Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 3,086	Originally Posted by Octavo Excellent - my very first avatar bet! He appears to be the only Bitcoin-Doom-Prognosticator left in this topic over time. In the last few years, the others, nearly to a man, have embarrassed themselves and disappeared completely. Look at the person in my sig. Jhunter is only sticking around by trying to ignore his own past claims. I wouldn't take any bet with someone who has a selective memory like that.
EGarrett Illuminator Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 3,086	__________________ "So if a tard came up to me and offered to sell me 10 bitcoins for $100, not only would I not do it, I think I'd punch him in the head, just for being stupid." -The Central Scrutinizer

23rd September 2014, 12:51 PM	#91
jhunter1163 beer-swilling semiliterate Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes. Posts: 25,058	Originally Posted by EGarrett Are you accountable for your past behavior and your provably wrong predictions? Yes or no? ...and this does not mean that your behavior or what you and others have said won't be brought up again if you try to handwave this away or not answer. As I've said, I stand by every statement I've made in this thread. I'm not sure how much more "accountable" I can be. If I've made "provably wrong" predictions, then I've been wrong; it wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last. However, I still think that BTC is destined for the memory hole over the long term; the only real question is how long it will take for it to die. And, as an aside, I would suggest that you moderate your tone a bit. Just sayin'.

23rd September 2014, 10:11 PM	#92
Octavo Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: South Africa Posts: 3,485	Originally Posted by EGarrett He appears to be the only Bitcoin-Doom-Prognosticator left in this topic over time. In the last few years, the others, nearly to a man, have embarrassed themselves and disappeared completely. Look at the person in my sig. The scrut quote is particularly amusing I have to say Originally Posted by EGarrett Jhunter is only sticking around by trying to ignore his own past claims. I wouldn't take any bet with someone who has a selective memory like that. I hear your frustration, but you're being uncharitable here. Originally Posted by jhunter1163 As I've said, I stand by every statement I've made in this thread. I'm not sure how much more "accountable" I can be. If I've made "provably wrong" predictions, then I've been wrong; it wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last. However, I still think that BTC is destined for the memory hole over the long term; the only real question is how long it will take for it to die. That's kind of weaselly though. If I claimed the telegraph was destined for the memory hole in 1837 I'd be right eventually too.

24th September 2014, 08:00 AM	#93
Almo Masterblazer Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Montreal, Quebec Posts: 6,825	Bitcoin doesn't work well as a currency, as has been explained. Perhaps it will eventually, but it doesn't now.
	__________________ Almo! My Blog "No society ever collapsed because the poor had too much." — LeftySergeant "It may be that there is no body really at rest, to which the places and motions of others may be referred." –Issac Newton in the Principia

24th September 2014, 09:12 AM	#94
Donal Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,519	I don't think Bitcoin itself will ever gain wide acceptance as a currency. However, I do see cryptocurrency becoming widely accepted, provided some central banking institution is behind it.
Donal Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,519

24th September 2014, 11:01 AM	#95
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	Originally Posted by Donal I don't think Bitcoin itself will ever gain wide acceptance as a currency. However, I do see cryptocurrency becoming widely accepted, provided some central banking institution is behind it. If some central banking institution were behind it there would be no point in having a cryptocurrency at all. Encrypted transactions of funds between accounts containing non-cryptographic currencies would be a far more efficient way to do thing. The entire point of cryptocurrencies is that they're decentralized and function independently of governments, corporations, banks and financial institutions. But I agree that Bitcoin is far from ideal as a practical currency, which is why some other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, were invented. Eventually some non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency will become more ubiquitous than Bitcoin, or maybe the Bitcoin protocols will gradually change.
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim Last edited by Brian-M; 24th September 2014 at 11:03 AM.

25th September 2014, 07:45 AM	#96
Donal Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,519	You're going to need some large institution backing the currency and making plans in case there is rapid inflation or deflation.
Donal Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,519

25th September 2014, 12:18 PM	#97
Tippit Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,725	Originally Posted by Donal You're going to need some large institution backing the currency and making plans in case there is rapid inflation or deflation. Or, you could just have a free market in money, without the theft masquerading as central planning. I know. Perish the thought.
Tippit Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,725	__________________ "The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." - Lord Acton

25th September 2014, 02:55 PM	#98
Belz... Fiend God Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: In the details Posts: 73,316	How free do you see this market, exactly ?
	__________________ Master of the Shining Darkness

25th September 2014, 04:48 PM	#99
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 13,072	Originally Posted by Donal You're going to need some large institution backing the currency and making plans in case there is rapid inflation or deflation. Why?
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

26th September 2014, 01:07 AM	#100
Tolls Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,172	Originally Posted by psionl0 Why? Well, at least as things stand, there's still an awful lot of people who view it with suspicion and more who see it as a novelty. Neither of which help it as a currency. Even the companies that accept bitcoins seem to only be doing so with a view to having it turned into "real" money ASAP, hence not risking losing out. Not that a currency needs the backing of a large institution, but I do think (and this thread has plenty of examples in the form of posters) that it's the current perception of the public in general that bitcoin and the like are a bit too Wild West for their comfort. It'll be interesting to see how it develops and whether the perception of the general population changes towards it. I mean, after last years roller coaster I'm quite surprised by the relative stability its shown recently. I was expecting more of the same...so I'm not going to make any predictions, that's for sure.
Tolls Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,172

26th September 2014, 02:42 AM	#101
AdMan Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 10,293	Originally Posted by Donal I don't think Bitcoin itself will ever gain wide acceptance as a currency. However, I do see cryptocurrency becoming widely accepted, provided some central banking institution is behind it. Is anonymity still an important characteristic of Bitcoin, and if so how does that fit in with it being behind a central banking institution?
	__________________ As long as people believe in absurdities they will continue to commit atrocities. - Voltaire.

26th September 2014, 02:48 AM	#102
stevea Master Poster Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,056	Just curious - does anyone here actual hold much in bitcoin ? I mean serious savings amount and not just a few $k ? I have a feeling that BTC is more interesting to talk about than it is practical to use. I've never used it.
stevea Master Poster Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,056

26th September 2014, 03:24 AM	#103
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	Originally Posted by stevea Just curious - does anyone here actual hold much in bitcoin ? I mean serious savings amount and not just a few $k ? No, but here's my two cents: https://blockchain.info/address/1F6C...jibzgrANCmqQR1 Heh. I've been waiting a while to make that pun. At the moment, two cents of Bitcoin comes to around eight US dollars.
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

26th September 2014, 12:42 PM	#104
Tippit Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,725	Originally Posted by stevea Just curious - does anyone here actual hold much in bitcoin ? I mean serious savings amount and not just a few $k ? I have a feeling that BTC is more interesting to talk about than it is practical to use. I've never used it. I have a friend who has about 35,000 BTC. When it was trading higher than an ounce of gold, it was a serious chunk of change.
Tippit Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,725	__________________ "The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." - Lord Acton

26th September 2014, 06:49 PM	#105
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	Originally Posted by Tippit I have a friend who has about 35,000 BTC. When it was trading higher than an ounce of gold, it was a serious chunk of change. So now that the value of his bitcoins has gone down to $14 million US dollars, that's not a serious chunk of change?
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

27th September 2014, 06:29 AM	#106
jhunter1163 beer-swilling semiliterate Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes. Posts: 25,058	Originally Posted by Brian-M So now that the value of his bitcoins has gone down to $14 million US dollars, that's not a serious chunk of change? The "value" of his BTC isn't anything close to $14 million. There's no way he could get anything approaching that much money out of them, unless he accepts hacked Starbucks cards.

27th September 2014, 08:13 AM	#107
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	Originally Posted by jhunter1163 The "value" of his BTC isn't anything close to $14 million. There's no way he could get anything approaching that much money out of them, unless he accepts hacked Starbucks cards. Why couldn't he sell them on an exchange? Take a look at this volume chart... https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts#USD-volumes-1m Most days see more than 10,000 bitcoins traded for USD, sometimes more than 30,000 bitcoins. The 30th of August saw more than 70,000 bitcoins traded for USD in a single day. Although, that's the combined volume for a whole bunch of different exchanges, but there shouldn't be a problem if he gradually sells them off in a couple of different exchanges over several months. Hell, if he's willing to sell them cheap to get some quick cash he shouldn't have a problem. Take a look at this market depth chart for the Bitstamp exchange... http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD_depth.html From what I see, if he's willing to accept $340 for them, he could sell 10,000 bitcoins straight away for an instant $3.4 million, and still have 25,000 bitcoins left.
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim Last edited by Brian-M; 27th September 2014 at 08:14 AM.

27th September 2014, 02:07 PM	#108
jhunter1163 beer-swilling semiliterate Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes. Posts: 25,058	Originally Posted by Brian-M Why couldn't he sell them on an exchange? Take a look at this volume chart... https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts#USD-volumes-1m Most days see more than 10,000 bitcoins traded for USD, sometimes more than 30,000 bitcoins. The 30th of August saw more than 70,000 bitcoins traded for USD in a single day. Although, that's the combined volume for a whole bunch of different exchanges, but there shouldn't be a problem if he gradually sells them off in a couple of different exchanges over several months. Hell, if he's willing to sell them cheap to get some quick cash he shouldn't have a problem. Take a look at this market depth chart for the Bitstamp exchange... http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD_depth.html From what I see, if he's willing to accept $340 for them, he could sell 10,000 bitcoins straight away for an instant $3.4 million, and still have 25,000 bitcoins left. This has been a major objection of mine all along; the lack of liquidity in the BTC system. There's probably not $14 million in fiat in the system among all of the exchanges. So this guy's $14 million is a paper fortune; even worse, it's virtual paper and could easily evaporate entirely.

27th September 2014, 02:45 PM	#109
Tippit Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,725	Originally Posted by Belz... That does not counter what JHunter said. How can you liquidate those BTC ? Uh, there were ~90,000 BTC transacted in just the last 24h, and the market cap is just under $6 billion. I'm not going to bother to link to the stats, you can look them up. Clearly the market is deep enough for him to liquidate his BTC, just not all on one day.
Tippit Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,725	__________________ "The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." - Lord Acton

27th September 2014, 02:47 PM	#110
jhunter1163 beer-swilling semiliterate Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes. Posts: 25,058	Originally Posted by Tippit Uh, there were ~90,000 BTC transacted in just the last 24h, and the market cap is just under $6 billion. I'm not going to bother to link to the stats, you can look them up. Clearly the market is deep enough for him to liquidate his BTC, just not all on one day. How many of those transactions were BTC to USD, and how many were BTC to BTC?

27th September 2014, 02:51 PM	#111
Belz... Fiend God Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: In the details Posts: 73,316	Originally Posted by Tippit Uh, there were ~90,000 BTC transacted in just the last 24h, and the market cap is just under $6 billion. That doesn't answer my question: how do you liquidate those BTC in short order ? If you can't get USD for your BTC, then they are not worth that amount.
	__________________ Master of the Shining Darkness

27th September 2014, 02:53 PM	#112
Tippit Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,725	Originally Posted by jhunter1163 How many of those transactions were BTC to USD, and how many were BTC to BTC? https://blockchain.info/charts/estim...ion-volume-usd So, the USD volume has been hovering around $50 million a day. Divide that by the USD price to get the BTC volume. Why would anyone trade bitcoin for bitcoin, what kind of transactions are you talking about? Bitcoin may or may not be in a bubble, but you are living in a bubble.
Tippit Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,725	__________________ "The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." - Lord Acton

27th September 2014, 03:41 PM	#113
jhunter1163 beer-swilling semiliterate Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes. Posts: 25,058	Originally Posted by Tippit https://blockchain.info/charts/estim...ion-volume-usd So, the USD volume has been hovering around $50 million a day. Divide that by the USD price to get the BTC volume. Why would anyone trade bitcoin for bitcoin, what kind of transactions are you talking about? Bitcoin may or may not be in a bubble, but you are living in a bubble. IIRC about one-quarter of all BTC transactions are on a single gaming site. On that site, you bet BTC and win BTC. No USD ever changes hands. There's also the illegal trade; obviously, no one knows how large a market that is, but again, no USD is changing hands. I would be very surprised if any significant amount of BTC is being redeemed for cash simply because it's so difficult to do it. eBay and Overstock accepting BTC is great news for BTC holders; they can use their BTC there, get some value for their money, and wash their hands of the whole thing. I'm curious as to how soon Coinbase is required to pay eBay and Overstock their USD. I can't imagine it's very long.

27th September 2014, 04:28 PM	#114
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	Originally Posted by jhunter1163 I would be very surprised if any significant amount of BTC is being redeemed for cash simply because it's so difficult to do it. What exactly do you call significant? I pointed out in my last post that most days see more than 10,000 bitcoins being redeemed for cash. Is $4 million a day not significant? Originally Posted by jhunter1163 eBay and Overstock accepting BTC is great news for BTC holders; they can use their BTC there, get some value for their money, and wash their hands of the whole thing. I somehow doubt it'd be more convenient for a person to spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in bitcoin on eBay than it would be to simply trade the bitcoin directly for cash on an exchange.
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,044	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

27th September 2014, 06:46 PM	#115
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 13,072	Originally Posted by jhunter1163 IIRC about one-quarter of all BTC transactions are on a single gaming site. Making up facts is so much fun!
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975