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#81 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 13,877
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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#82 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,418
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#83 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Estonia
Posts: 2,116
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__________________
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.” – Christopher Hitchens. |
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#84 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: South Africa
Posts: 3,485
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#85 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,068
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#86 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: South Africa
Posts: 3,485
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#87 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,418
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Down to 421 right now.
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#88 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,068
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#90 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 3,086
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He appears to be the only Bitcoin-Doom-Prognosticator left in this topic over time. In the last few years, the others, nearly to a man, have embarrassed themselves and disappeared completely. Look at the person in my sig.
Jhunter is only sticking around by trying to ignore his own past claims. I wouldn't take any bet with someone who has a selective memory like that. |
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"So if a tard came up to me and offered to sell me 10 bitcoins for $100, not only would I not do it, I think I'd punch him in the head, just for being stupid." -The Central Scrutinizer |
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#91 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,068
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As I've said, I stand by every statement I've made in this thread. I'm not sure how much more "accountable" I can be. If I've made "provably wrong" predictions, then I've been wrong; it wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last. However, I still think that BTC is destined for the memory hole over the long term; the only real question is how long it will take for it to die.
And, as an aside, I would suggest that you moderate your tone a bit. Just sayin'. |
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#92 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: South Africa
Posts: 3,485
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The scrut quote is particularly amusing I have to say
![]() I hear your frustration, but you're being uncharitable here. That's kind of weaselly though. If I claimed the telegraph was destined for the memory hole in 1837 I'd be right eventually too. |
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#93 |
Masterblazer
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Montreal, Quebec
Posts: 6,839
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Bitcoin doesn't work well as a currency, as has been explained. Perhaps it will eventually, but it doesn't now.
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Almo! My Music Blog "No society ever collapsed because the poor had too much." — LeftySergeant "It may be that there is no body really at rest, to which the places and motions of others may be referred." –Issac Newton in the Principia |
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#94 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,671
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I don't think Bitcoin itself will ever gain wide acceptance as a currency. However, I do see cryptocurrency becoming widely accepted, provided some central banking institution is behind it.
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#95 |
Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 8,044
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If some central banking institution were behind it there would be no point in having a cryptocurrency at all. Encrypted transactions of funds between accounts containing non-cryptographic currencies would be a far more efficient way to do thing.
The entire point of cryptocurrencies is that they're decentralized and function independently of governments, corporations, banks and financial institutions. But I agree that Bitcoin is far from ideal as a practical currency, which is why some other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, were invented. Eventually some non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency will become more ubiquitous than Bitcoin, or maybe the Bitcoin protocols will gradually change. |
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"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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#96 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,671
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You're going to need some large institution backing the currency and making plans in case there is rapid inflation or deflation.
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#97 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,725
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"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." - Lord Acton |
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#98 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 78,418
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How free do you see this market, exactly ?
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#99 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 13,877
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__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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#100 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,384
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Well, at least as things stand, there's still an awful lot of people who view it with suspicion and more who see it as a novelty. Neither of which help it as a currency.
Even the companies that accept bitcoins seem to only be doing so with a view to having it turned into "real" money ASAP, hence not risking losing out. Not that a currency needs the backing of a large institution, but I do think (and this thread has plenty of examples in the form of posters) that it's the current perception of the public in general that bitcoin and the like are a bit too Wild West for their comfort. It'll be interesting to see how it develops and whether the perception of the general population changes towards it. I mean, after last years roller coaster I'm quite surprised by the relative stability its shown recently. I was expecting more of the same...so I'm not going to make any predictions, that's for sure. |
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#101 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 10,293
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As long as people believe in absurdities they will continue to commit atrocities. - Voltaire. |
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#102 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,060
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Just curious - does anyone here actual hold much in bitcoin ? I mean serious savings amount and not just a few $k ?
I have a feeling that BTC is more interesting to talk about than it is practical to use. I've never used it. |
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#103 |
Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 8,044
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No, but here's my two cents: https://blockchain.info/address/1F6C...jibzgrANCmqQR1 ![]() Heh. I've been waiting a while to make that pun. At the moment, two cents of Bitcoin comes to around eight US dollars. |
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"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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#104 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,725
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__________________
"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." - Lord Acton |
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#105 |
Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 8,044
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__________________
"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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#106 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
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#107 |
Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 8,044
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Why couldn't he sell them on an exchange? Take a look at this volume chart... https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts#USD-volumes-1m Most days see more than 10,000 bitcoins traded for USD, sometimes more than 30,000 bitcoins. The 30th of August saw more than 70,000 bitcoins traded for USD in a single day. Although, that's the combined volume for a whole bunch of different exchanges, but there shouldn't be a problem if he gradually sells them off in a couple of different exchanges over several months. Hell, if he's willing to sell them cheap to get some quick cash he shouldn't have a problem. Take a look at this market depth chart for the Bitstamp exchange... http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD_depth.html From what I see, if he's willing to accept $340 for them, he could sell 10,000 bitcoins straight away for an instant $3.4 million, and still have 25,000 bitcoins left. |
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"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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#108 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
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This has been a major objection of mine all along; the lack of liquidity in the BTC system. There's probably not $14 million in fiat in the system among all of the exchanges. So this guy's $14 million is a paper fortune; even worse, it's virtual paper and could easily evaporate entirely.
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#109 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,725
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"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." - Lord Acton |
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#110 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
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#111 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
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#112 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,725
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https://blockchain.info/charts/estim...ion-volume-usd
So, the USD volume has been hovering around $50 million a day. Divide that by the USD price to get the BTC volume. Why would anyone trade bitcoin for bitcoin, what kind of transactions are you talking about? Bitcoin may or may not be in a bubble, but you are living in a bubble. |
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"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." - Lord Acton |
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#113 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,068
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IIRC about one-quarter of all BTC transactions are on a single gaming site. On that site, you bet BTC and win BTC. No USD ever changes hands. There's also the illegal trade; obviously, no one knows how large a market that is, but again, no USD is changing hands.
I would be very surprised if any significant amount of BTC is being redeemed for cash simply because it's so difficult to do it. eBay and Overstock accepting BTC is great news for BTC holders; they can use their BTC there, get some value for their money, and wash their hands of the whole thing. I'm curious as to how soon Coinbase is required to pay eBay and Overstock their USD. I can't imagine it's very long. |
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#114 |
Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 8,044
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What exactly do you call significant? I pointed out in my last post that most days see more than 10,000 bitcoins being redeemed for cash. Is $4 million a day not significant?
I somehow doubt it'd be more convenient for a person to spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in bitcoin on eBay than it would be to simply trade the bitcoin directly for cash on an exchange. |
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"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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#115 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 13,877
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__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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#116 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,068
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Oh, come now. This is a skeptics' site. Surely you didn't think I would be unable to back up my assertion?
And, actually, I understated the percentage; according to this article, gambling represents almost half of all BTC transactions. http://arstechnica.com/business/2013...-transactions/ |
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#117 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
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#118 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
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You really should learn to read past the headlines. The devil is in the detail and never the twain shall meet.
Based on the number of bitcoin transactions, the article calculates that for the month of June 2013, transactions involving satoshi dice account for 25% to 50% of that number. Even then, that would assume that multiple destination transactions where satoshi dice is one of them are counted solely as a satoshi dice transaction. However, when you include the number of bitcoins per transaction, you get a very different story.
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So yes, 50% is a made up "fact". The only difference is that you aren't the one who made it up. You just uncritically took a headline as gospel. MtGox died therefore ALL bitcoin exchanges have difficulty cashing out withdrawals? Seriously, a rock could come up with better critical thinking than you do. |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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#119 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
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#120 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
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And it sure looks like BTC gambling is a booming business, still.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling |
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