Bushfire season 2023-2024

[arthwollipot]

With El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, Australia is bracing for a hot and dry summer. With a lot of fuel load from the last three growing years, the country is a tinderbox waiting to be sparked off.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plus El Niño in Australia likely to cause hot and dry weather

Quote:

While El Niño dominates the headlines, a lesser-known climate influence is rapidly forming to our west, and is likely to bring hot and dry weather to Australia for the remainder of the year.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the Indian Ocean's version of El Niño, and typically brings reduced rainfall and an increase in temperatures through winter and spring.

The index used to monitor the Indian Ocean surged to 0.79 last week, the highest value in four years, which is nearly double the threshold for a positive phase.

If values above 0.4 are sustained for eight weeks, as predicted by all modelling, then 2023 becomes a positive IOD year, the first since 2019.

2019, you will remember, was the year of the catastrophic fires in which much of the eastern half of the country was ablaze.

It's looking to be a bad year.

[arthwollipot]

Couple more articles to give you the idea of what's going on:

Queensland bushfire risk heightened by increased fuel loads, emergency services prepared for busy season ahead

Quote:

Fire authorities say they are prepared for whatever the bushfire season throws at them, with the latest outlook showing Queensland faces an increased risk across much of the state.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Commissioner Greg Leach said his organisation expects a busy fire season this year due to "huge" fuel loads.

"The last six months [have seen] well-below average rainfall, so there is a lot of grass," he said.

"We're in for, I think, a big grass fire potential this year."

Large parts of Australia put on high alert for significant bushfires in spring

Quote:

A worrying recipe of increased vegetation combined with warm, dry weather has prompted emergency authorities to put large swathes of the country on high alert for bushfires this spring.

Years of heavy rain have boosted the amount of vegetation ready to burn
The Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) has large parts of a map of eastern and central Australia marked in red in its seasonal outlook released on Wednesday.

It comes as the Bureau of Meteorology tips spring to be warm and dry for much of the country, with a double-whammy of drought-linked climate drivers developing in oceans to the west and east of the country.

[Norman Alexander]

I lived in the middle of it last time. A lot of the trees have still not recovered. This could be bad.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander

I lived in the middle of it last time. A lot of the trees have still not recovered. This could be bad.

Yeah, I wasn't directly threatened, but we did have the worst air quality on the planet (by a significant amount) for a little while there, and I think I probably have permanent lung damage just from being alive in this city during that time.

Not looking forward to that again.

[lionking]

In Victoria I believe we are pretty well prepared. After Black Saturday a lot of electrical infrastructure was been upgraded and there has been a lot of burning off happening. Also citizens are much better informed. I know I will head for the city if a Code Red day is declared (only a handful have been declared over the years) and I think a lot more people will do the same and not try to defend property on such extreme days.

The paddocks are still very green across the state. Yes I know they can dry out quickly, but before Black Saturday the state was very dry right through winter. I’m hopeful.

[novaphile]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

Yeah, I wasn't directly threatened, but we did have the worst air quality on the planet (by a significant amount) for a little while there, and I think I probably have permanent lung damage just from being alive in this city during that time.

Not looking forward to that again.

On recommendation from the Asthma Council (and the Australian Consumers Association), I've bought a indoor air purifier. They are already giving warnings that this summer could be appalling in terms of air quality.

(This made it to the TV news, hence me rushing out and buying one).

It had a good test on Sunday, a neighbour made a mistake with their firepit and everyones' homes filled up with smoke.

I bought this one on Choice's recommendation:

https://www.thegoodguys.com.au/samsu...-ax90t7080wdsa

But there are lots of smaller and cheaper models available too.

[arthwollipot]

Yes, good idea! I'll check out the Good Guys up the road from my place this weekend. Get in before the rush.

[smartcooky]

I have family who live in Yarra Junction (near Warburton) about 50K east of Melbourne.

I can tell you they are worried.

[lionking]

Originally Posted by smartcooky

I have family who live in Yarra Junction (near Warburton) about 50K east of Melbourne.

I can tell you they are worried.

One of my daughters lives in Launching Place, about 5km from Yarra Junction. She’s at our place tonight. She’s not particularly worried, but she agreed that she and her partner would take their dog and go into the CBD on Code Red days.

[smartcooky]

Originally Posted by lionking

One of my daughters lives in Launching Place, about 5km from Yarra Junction. She’s at our place tonight. She’s not particularly worried, but she agreed that she and her partner would take their dog and go into the CBD on Code Red days.

Yeah, that's in the other direction from Warburton.

My sister in law is a vet's assistant for a practice in East Melbourne, and she volunteers at the Healesville Wildlife Sanctuary. They got it bad, mostly smoke, in the 1997 Bushfires. She tells me they saw the fires coming towards them from the south-west. She reckons that they could smell smoke on the curtains and furniture for months after that.

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

Yeah, I wasn't directly threatened, but we did have the worst air quality on the planet (by a significant amount) for a little while there, and I think I probably have permanent lung damage just from being alive in this city during that time.

Not looking forward to that again.

Not trying to explain things you probably already know, but it may be time to invest in a quality half face respirator with some good particulate cartridges, at least for when you have to go outside.

Might get you some weird looks but you really ought not be out there raw-dogging wildfire smoke.

We got a tiny taste of this in New England from the Canadian wildfire smoke, but luckily it was quite short lived.

[arthwollipot]

Townsville residents are being told to stay indoors again today due to smoke.

[novaphile]

Originally Posted by lionking

One of my daughters lives in Launching Place, about 5km from Yarra Junction. She’s at our place tonight. She’s not particularly worried, but she agreed that she and her partner would take their dog and go into the CBD on Code Red days.

I have friends who currently live in the Adelaide Hills that have a very similar strategy.

Over summer they spend quite a bit of time in shopping centres, at the beach etc.

In their case, they've had a few unfortunate experiences.

Namely:

1. Automated Fire fighting pumps (AFFP) failed due to power outage.
2. AFFP failed because CFS drained their water supply (tanks and pool)
(They understand why this has to be done, but it feels pretty harsh when you lose property because firefighters are protecting someone else's property.)
3. AFFP (petrol driven) failed because the fire was so bad, there wasn't enough oxygen for the pumps to run.

Given all that, and their age, I can really understand them just not wanting to be around during fire season.

[arthwollipot]

Major bushfire closes Barkly Highway as authorities declare entire NT a fire danger area until March

Quote:

Authorities are set to declare the entire Northern Territory a fire danger area from tomorrow until the end of February 2024, as hotter, drier and windier conditions forecast for vast parts of Central Australia are expected to heighten the risk of catastrophic bushfires.

It comes as a large bushfire burns uncontrolled across the Barkly region, forcing the closure of part of the Barkly Highway linking the NT with Queensland.

...

It comes as Bushfires NT and the NT Fire and Rescue Service announced on Friday they would declare all of the Northern Territory a fire danger area from Saturday, a move that will require all landholders to obtain permits to burn.

The ban will last right through until February 29 next year, because of concerns about the risk posed by high fuel loads after several years of heavy rainfall.

The agencies said Central Australian regions were forecast to experience above median temperatures, and windier and drier conditions than usual.

Bushfires NT Chief Fire Controller Tony Fuller reiterated a previous warning that up to 80 per cent of the NT could be burnt over the summer.

For the record, the NT is 1,419,630 km2 (548,120 sq mi), approximately the same land area as Alaska.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

It's looking to be a bad year.

You may not get our firies this time in - we're expecting trouble on the eastern side of south island.

It'll be nothing like the scale of yours, though.

I'll be surprised if it's not the worst fire season ever in Aussie. Those three years of rain are very bad news.

[lionking]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

You may not get our firies this time in - we're expecting trouble on the eastern side of south island.

It'll be nothing like the scale of yours, though.

I'll be surprised if it's not the worst fire season ever in Aussie. Those three years of rain are very bad news.

Well as I said earlier, preparation for fire seasons have advanced tremendously in past years. Burning off, power line maintenance (just yesterday a helicopter was flying around our suburbs looking at power lines on bush properties) and public awareness of how to maintain their own properties and implementing fire plans have increased enormously.

Also, and speaking only of Victoria, Black Saturday was preceded by a massive drought. This year has seen saturating rains. Today it is snowing in Victoria over 600 meters.

I’m cautiously optimistic, at least in very bushy and often fire prone Victoria.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by lionking

Well as I said earlier, preparation for fire seasons have advanced tremendously in past years. Burning off, power line maintenance (just yesterday a helicopter was flying around our suburbs looking at power lines on bush properties) and public awareness of how to maintain their own properties and implementing fire plans have increased enormously.

Also, and speaking only of Victoria, Black Saturday was preceded by a massive drought. This year has seen saturating rains. Today it is snowing in Victoria over 600 meters.

I’m cautiously optimistic, at least in very bushy and often fire prone Victoria.

It's likely that the BOM will declare El Niño this week, which means drier conditions across the country. Yes, we are slightly better prepared now than we were in 2019-20, but it's still not going to be good.

[arthwollipot]

Bushfire risk high, lack of volunteers places increasing pressure on rural fire brigades

Quote:

Low volunteer numbers among country fire brigades have raised concerns that lives and properties could be at risk ahead of what is expected to be a hot and dry fire season.

The West Australian town of Gibson, 700 kilometres south-east of Perth, is one of several country towns trying to recruit and train new members before the peak of the season hits.

With more than 25 years of experience, Gibson Fire Brigade secretary Glen Williams said the changing weather was a sign of the work to come.

"Today it's around about 30 degrees Celsius outside," he said.

"It's a good warning that the summer is coming on us pretty quickly."

28C forecast here in Canberra for today and tomorrow, which is bonkers for September.

[The Atheist]

Yes, I've seen the temps over your way - the signs are not good.

I've got a Kiwi bloke who wants to move to Aussie and he's a volunteer firefighter, so if you have any mates wanting to hire someone you can add him to the team.

Christ knows what the temperatures are going to be come Dec/Jan, but explosive springs to mind. We're on fire watch here already on the east coast, which considering they were feet deep in floods a couple of months ago tells you a lot too.

[arthwollipot]

Schools on the NSW Far South Coast close due to extreme fire danger

Quote:

Dozens of schools on the Far South Coast are closed today after an extreme fire danger rating was declared for the region.

The closures includes public, private and independent schools, as well as preschools.

The NSW Department of Education said the decision to temporarily shut 20 of its schools was made in consultation with the Rural Fire Service.

The ABC understands at least nine other schools have since told families that they will be closed as well.

A total fire ban has also been declared for the Far South Coast and Greater Sydney regions today, due to hot and windy conditions forecast.

The Atheist, tell your bloke that he'll be more than welcome here.

[novaphile]

It's starting to look like we're in for a horror summer.

El Niño has been declared by the Bureau of Meteorology, and the Indian Ocean dipole is showing double the value that is usual relied on to be 'positive'.

When both of these things line up (IOD affects the South and West of Australia, and EN affects the East Coast) we tend to have a really hot summer.

[rjh01]

Originally Posted by novaphile

It's starting to look like we're in for a horror summer.

El Niño has been declared by the Bureau of Meteorology, and the Indian Ocean dipole is showing double the value that is usual relied on to be 'positive'.

When both of these things line up (IOD affects the South and West of Australia, and EN affects the East Coast) we tend to have a really hot summer.

I suggest the bushfires would be as bad as the fires in 2019/20 season. And they were bad. Could even be worse.

[Dabop]

First aircraft downed...
In S/E Qld

Quote:

PID:: 2023-09-20 18:00 Firefighing Chopper crash..
This chopper was working on the incidents in the Cunningham's Gap area..
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) can confirm that a helicopter undertaking water-bombing activities has crashed into a dam in Tarome, in the Scenic Rim area, this afternoon.
The incident occurred at a dam on a private property shortly before 3pm. It’s understood that the helicopter was undertaking water collection at the time of the crash and was hovering close to the water when it hit the surface and rolled.
The aircraft was engaged by QFES to work in support of a fire burning at Tregony, which has been burning the past several days.
The pilot, and sole occupant of the helicopter, was able to escape the wreckage and swim to shore. He is currently being assessed by paramedics. He is believed to be uninjured.
The cause of the crash is unknown at this time and QFES will assist the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) with its investigation. No further information is available at this time.

From F/B (its a members only F/B group I am in 'Darling Downs News and Weather')

[Dabop]

Originally Posted by rjh01

I suggest the bushfires would be as bad as the fires in 2019/20 season. And they were bad. Could even be worse.

That's what many fear- there's already been a large number of fires local to me (S/E Qld), including one that had ten QLD RBFS units attend, plus one that had a town evacuated last Sunday...
https://www.abc.net.au/emergency/war...480404ba9af7be
And its only September...
(the bushfires don't tend to really start cranking until the end of summer, when everything has dried up from the heat...)

[arthwollipot]

******.

Police charge man with deliberately lighting 18 fires during extreme NT bushfire season

Quote:

A 37-year-old man has been arrested and charged for allegedly deliberately lighting 18 bushfires in the rural Darwin area, with police investigating his possible involvement in dozens more.

The arson arrest comes amid a horror Northern Territory fire season, which has already seen at least two homes lost, and a 1.4 million hectare blaze rage across the remote Barkly district.

NT Police and firefighters have condemned the man's alleged actions, as dry and hostile weather conditions continue to keep emergency services on alert from the Top End to Central Australia.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

******.

Police charge man with deliberately lighting 18 fires during extreme NT bushfire season

It's truly bizarre how that happens. Serious mental illness.

[Dabop]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

It's truly bizarre how that happens. Serious mental illness.

Sadly far too common...

This lot happened about an hours drive away from me...

[novaphile]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

******.

Police charge man with deliberately lighting 18 fires during extreme NT bushfire season

I agree with the sadly common statement.

We've just had an ex CFS volunteer found guilty for lighting bushfires.

And... back when I was a teenager volunteering for CREST and ARES (civilian emergency service radio volunteers) we had a brief period where our mobile personnel were recording vehicle registration numbers at bush fires and grass fires.

There was a suspicion, that was later proven, that one of the CFS guys was lighting fires so that he could be the first to report the fire, or always one of the first to attend.

Police had their suspicions and asked us to take note of who arrived and when, especially if we had mobiles nearby when fires were reported.

Eventually they had a very short list of suspects, and started to surreptitiously follow those suspects with unmarked vehicles. (Police officers, not my guys)

Caught the guy in the act, petrol can and lighter at the scene as the fire was lit.

There is an ongoing police operation, that restarts every year, to keep close tabs on known arsonists in South Australia, to keep them from lighting fires.

In a sane world, they'd be in gaol, but somebody once said: "No" to them as a child, so nothing they do is their fault.

[lionking]

Sadly it looks like wolli’s fears might come to pass:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-...rica/102922014

Quote:

An emergency warning is in place for a fire near Briagolong. Watch and act warnings are in place for Loch Sport, Merrijig, Iguana Creek, Stockdale, and Cobbannah.

Emergency warnings for Forge Creek and the communities of Rawson, Walhalla, and Erica have now been downgraded to an advice message.

All of those places in Gippsland and the Victorian high country are gems, but if Walhalla is burnt, part of Victoria’s soul will be lost.

[arthwollipot]

I'm seeing both fire and flood warnings for the southeast right now.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by novaphile

It's starting to look like we're in for a horror summer.

Can someone give this man the million dollars?

NSW fires: premier warns of ‘horror summer’ as three homes destroyed in Bega Valley bushfire

Quote:

Emergency downgraded but RFS warns residents near Bermagui not to be complacent amid fire across more than 5,000 hectares


Three homes have been destroyed by fires on the New South Wales south coast, prompting warnings from Anthony Albanese and Chris Minns for Australians to prepare for a “horror summer”.

The NSW Rural Fire Service confirmed the property losses on Wednesday afternoon after the Coolagolite blaze ripped through the Bega Valley late on Tuesday night.

The fire burnt more than 5,000 hectares before being downgraded following a southerly change that eased conditions.