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#81 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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Do you even read what you type?
You're saying to ignore a trend of only two years because it doesn't count in the face of a trend of only two years immediately prior. Those two years are the aberration - in case you hadn't noticed, CO2 emissions have increased every year since about 1860, with the odd exception. Next up, pedestrian crossings are black on white, not white on black. Whether the EU has reduced emissions means sweet FA if the rest of the world is increasing by more than those reductions. There's a handy graphic in this article that might help you understand what a long-term trend is: https://www.theguardian.com/environm...e-high-in-2018 And Bolsinaro hasn't even started on the Amazon yet. If you had a point, you certainly failed to make it. (again) The only thing you got right is that recessions have more impact on emissions than any promises or overt action. Well done! |
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#82 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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I did. I explained the basic fact that economics vary and thus CO2 emissions vary. There are economic boom and bust cycles. There are recessions. There are changes in governmental policies. There are changes n consumer patterns. An economist could probably come up with more reasons why economics varies.
I did not say ignore the last 2 years. I said they need to be included in a longer tern trend to smooth out economic variation. This is similar to solar variation. No one ignores the fact that the Sun has a 11 year cycle when looking at trends in global temperatures. We use the last > 11 years including the last 2 years of solar activity to calculate the current trend. ETA: We cannot reliably use just 2 years rise to predict future CO2 emissions will rise at the same rate. There is a chance that emissions will return to a plateau as previously. I know that CO2 emissions have increased since 1860. That is the science I cited: Global Carbon Budget 2018 The EU and other countries decreasing their CO2 emission merely suggests that countries such as the USA, China and India could do the same. The science in Global Carbon Budget 2018 is part of the Guardian article you linked: 'Brutal news': global carbon emissions jump to all-time high in 2018 The point I made successfully was |
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#83 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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That is not quite what that news article says, The Atheist.
Global coal use up by third as greenhouse gas emissions rise This is an article about greenhouse gas emissions from energy production, e.g. coal-fired power plants. They are not the only source of our CO2. There is no mention of global GDP in the article. There is a "2.3% increase globally" in general energy demand with no breakdown into sectors. That figure alone is below global GDP of 3.5% (2017) AND 3.6% (2018). |
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#84 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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And given that the "plateau" itself consists of 2-3 years in a trend of 175 years, you're refuting your own point.
Yet again, but for god's sake don't admit that. Yes, there's a chance they will slow again. There's also a chance they won't. I think the latter is more likely. Give it five years and we'll know what they were, but given the long-term trend, world GDP growth and the fact that the "plateau" was very short-lived, I'd gladly bet a box of chocolate fish on it. No ****, Sherlock. EVERY country COULD cut its carbon emissions, but it's not helluva likely in the three you mention. For god's sake, it was only last year a mass of Chinese factories were busted releasing CFCs. And still are, for that matter. India won't slow its growth, which is what lowering carbon emissions would mean, and if you bothered checking out the bloke who's living in the White House and the people he's appointing to posts that impact on climate, you'd laugh at the idea that America is going to reduce emissions until it becomes financially imperative. That's a decade away at least. You are aware USA withdrew from Paris, aren't you? Do you even recognise how much easier it is for highly matured economies to go green than developing ones? I love the way your name doesn't reflect your ability to acknowledge reality. Nice irony. Correct, which is why I pointed out how similar they were. But there's an excellent example in your post that shows what I mean about reality - what the sector breakdown of CO2 emissions are is utterly irrelevant when discussing the increase overall. Yet you raise it as though an important piece of the puzzle is missing. Pathetic. I'm trying to figure out what you're trying to disagree with here, and I don't think you even know yourself. |
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#85 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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My point is that you did not use that 175 years of data!
![]() My point is that the existence of countries who have reduced CO2 emissions such as the EU means it is physically possible for the USA, China and India to reduce their CO2 emissions. Whether it happens is a different matter. The politics are irrelevant for this thread. My points are that global GDP (3.5% in 2017, 3.6% in 2018) are numbers that are not similar to a "2.3% increase globally" in general energy demand.
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#86 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 471
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Earth's Polar Cell is breaking up.
https://imgur.com/a/BHX7Hra On Tuesday, Klawock, Alaska topped out at 70 degrees Fahrenheit. Note the cold areas on the right side of the image. https://earther.gizmodo.com/it-was-7...eek-1833492360 |
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#87 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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#88 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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Not a good comparison because Invercargill is different from Klawock.
Invercargill is at the bottom of the South island with Stewart Island below it. Invercargill is partially shielded by Stewart Island from cold southerlies but subject to weather funneled between the islands. Invercargill has the high ranges of the Southern Alps to the north. Klawock is on the coast of a continent. Klawock is shielded by many islands (it is almost an inland city). There are at least hills all around Klawock. The weather will be different from Invercargill. A more appropriate comparison of weather would be a South American city. |
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#89 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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Wow, no wonder you use that name - you figured out they're different places. Pity you had to use Wikipedia to find out, but that's how it goes, I guess.
You really ought to see if you can go and buy a yourself a personality & sense of humour one of these days - I was making a casual observation rather than a scientific comparison. This is a discussion board as far as I'm aware, and your Romney-like blethering is both tedious and irrelevant. (Since you're determined to attempt to be a clever clogs, you should also have pointed out that Klawock itself is a very poor example, being on an island in the Pacific Ocean not even remotely connected to the Alaskan mainland, and largely uninfluenced by Alaskan weather patterns due to the prevailing westerly jet stream.) Pathetic. (3) p.s. I've added a few links so you don't get lost in the plain English. |
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#90 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,200
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Sadly, you are probably being overly optimistic. The IPCC “business as usual” scenario where we don’t start to reduce CO2 emissions at some point places warming by 2100 between ~4-6 deg C above pre-industrial (1900ish) levels. Any projection lower than this includes at least some reduction in CO2 emissions. ![]() |
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#91 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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#92 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,200
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#93 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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You were the one who causally compared weather in different places without checking whether their weather is different due to their different terrain!
Insults do not make a casual comparison correct. A "scientific comparison" assertion about my post pointing out that the casual comparison is wrong does not make the comparison correct. I have the advantage of living in NZ and already knowing that Invercargill is a coastal city at the bottom of the South Island, sandwiched between Stewart Island and the Southern Alps. So I looked up Klawock and saw that it is a city on an large island (Prince of Wales) surrounded by islands and at least hilly terrain according to Google Earth. Different terrain alone makes the comparison wrong. |
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#94 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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#95 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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Insults and repeating a foolish comparison, The Atheist.
You compare have cities in different terrains I did not point this out before but your comparison is also ignorant about seasons. Invercargill is in the Southern Hemisphere and starting autumn. Klawock is in the Northern Hemisphere and starting spring. Invercargill coming out of summer and being warmer than Klawock coming out of winter is not a surprise. Another tiny flaw with the comparison is choosing the southernmost city in New Zealand when Klawock is not the northernmost city in North America. |
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#96 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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Finally, absolute proof you have no idea what you're even arguing about. You're dead right, Invercargill is usually warmer than Klawock at this time of year.
That's why I posted this:
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Like I said earlier - it is truly pathetic. |
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#97 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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Meanwhile, in actual climate news, this struck me as pretty funny.
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...global-warming Trump disbanded them, but can't shut them up. |
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#98 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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Rather irresponsible politics is countered by responsible people reforming a scientific advisory group to complete the work it would have finished for the federal government.
The Advisory Committee for the Sustained National Climate Assessment was established under Barrack Obama's administration to provide scientific guidance based on the 4 yearly National Climate Assessment. A weak excuse to not renew their charter was that there was only 1 industry representative. The administration was not willing wait until April 2018 when advisory members would be rotated off. Trump officials faulted climate panel for having only ‘one member from industry’
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#99 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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You still do not understand the Klawock, Alaska post.
Klawock, Alaska was an example of not usual weather. Earth's Polar Cell is breaking up. It is behaving differently in 2019 and has not recovered from the polar vortex split. Extreme Weather: It Was 70 Degrees in Alaska This Week
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#100 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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Oh my god, you're making yourself a bigger fool that ever. That's the exact point I was making.
Writing it again with links and bolding doesn't get you a pass here - you've demonstrated time and time again you have no idea what you're typing, and you've just done it again! For god's sake will you please figure out what you actually think, then check what I actually typed. This is so far beyond absurd it isn't even parody. You contradict yourself, you try to contradict me by repeating what I've typed. You just do not have a single clue. |
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#101 | |||
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,200
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#102 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 12,637
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These Scientists Did More Than Tell Us We Were Doomed
The authors of the IPBES report also gave us a road map out
IPBES Report Link: https://www.ipbes.net/sites/default/...osting_htn.pdf IPBES - The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services The intergovernmental body which assesses the state of biodiversity and of the ecosystem services it provides to society, in response to requests from decision makers. Table SPM.1. Approaches for sustainability and possible actions and pathways for achieving them: pages 32-35 Key Messages (document sections)
Sobering read, at the least. |
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Trakar "By doubting we come to inquiry, and through inquiry we perceive truth." — Peter Abelard "My civilization can do anything!" - David Brin (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i275AvgVvow) |
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#103 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 5,234
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Agreed and not at all unexpected either.
Once I saw this: Farming Claims Almost Half Earth's Land, New Maps Show I began to realize if almost 1/2 the land is already in agriculture, and the vast majority of the rest of it is mountain peaks, glaciers, and deserts unsuitable for all life but the extremophiles. Then added to that thought my experience in agricultural methods and knowledge of what the conventional does to the life on that land. I knew this will crack and collapse catastrophically soon. I mean seriously. You cant literally kill off 1/2 the planet with biocides every single year on purpose and expect a good outcome. ![]() |
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Scott "Permaculture is a philosophy of working with, rather than against nature; of protracted & thoughtful observation rather than protracted & thoughtless labour; & of looking at plants & animals in all their functions, rather than treating any area as a single-product system." Bill Mollison Biome Carbon Cycle Management |
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#104 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 4,001
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This is, I hope, a good place to ask about net CO2 emissions (for want of a better word) that end up in the atmosphere.
A lot of such is obviously directly anthropogenic: burning fossil fuels, say. Some is (only just) indirectly anthropogenic: clearing forests, say, for palm plantations or cattle ranches. Some more indirect, such as methane leaks (methane becomes atmospheric CO2, after a delay). How much, though, is due to "natural" effects of climate change? For example, warmer weather in boreal forests leads to massive die-offs of trees which leads to net atmospheric CO2; or more severe droughts lead to more ferocious and widespread forest fires (with much slower re-growth as the fires really do kill much more of the flora). |
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#105 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,200
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The airborne fraction has remained at ~45% since the industrial revolution. IOW the land and ocean carbon sinks absorb all the carbon released naturally and more than half the CO2 we release by burning fossil fuels.
It’s widely recognised that this cannot continue indefinitely and indeed that at the earth warms, it will slowly release naturally sequestered CO2. These slow feedbacks are a key player in glacial cycles for example, and provide the long term amplification required to turn small orbital wobbles into big climate chances. These are slow effects however, and thus far have been swamped by our rapid release of fossil carbon. Of note, however, is that while we know these slow feedbacks exist and have powerful long term effects, they are not factored into current climate models or scenarios. Basically all IPCC projections ignore any and all effects that are not currently occurring, which means they are as conservative as reasonably possible with almost all risk on the side of them underestimating long term warming. |
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#106 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 4,001
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Thanks!
![]() There's another indirect contributor I'm interested in: increased natural methane emissions, e.g. due to thawing permafrost. I think I read, upthread, that the direct effects of this (i.e. more warming) are not (or not well?) modeled (maybe I didn't read carefully enough). The indirect effect is yet more atmospheric CO2. Also, as the oceans become more acidic, will their ability to absorb atmospheric CO2 decrease? IOW, more generally, what's the expected trend for the "~45%"? |
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#107 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,200
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Realclimate has covered it a dew times but Methane probably isn't an issue long term, at least not directly.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...about-methane/ http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...ve-pie-charts/ The thing to remember is that Methane only stays in the atmosphere for a decade or so. CO2 on the other hand stays in the atmosphere for centuries. CO2 also has a long tail, so ~10% of the CO2 we are releasing will still be in the atmosphere 100K years from now. If you increase the amount of Methane you release there is a corresponding 1 time increase in atmospheric methane, and radiative forcing. OTOH if you increase the amount of CO2 you release, atmospheric CO2 and radiative forcing will rise for several centuries, so in spite of Methane nominally being a stronger greenhouse gas CO2 has a larger climate impact. IF Methane were released fast enough it could cause very rapid warming, but only for a couple decades before the Methane decomposed to CO2. While such a release could be possible at the very least it's unlikely, and rates at which methane is release would need to be many orders of magnitude faster than what's currently observed. This isn't to say arctic soils and permafrost are not an issue, they contain enormousness amounts of carbon, but even if this carbon is initially released as methane is becomes CO2 rather quickly. However, there is enough carbon stored there that the CO2 itself is a big problem. It's generally agreed that the oceans ability to hold CO2 drops as temperature increases. At the oceans continue to warm, therefor, at some point the worlds oceans will stop absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere and begin releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. All the anthropogenic ic carbon they have already absorbed and more could ultimately be released into the atmosphere. Again though, exactly when or how much extra carbon is an unknown so this is not something built into current climate change scenarios. |
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#108 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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Congratulations, humans - CO2 has passed 415 ppm!
C'mon, fire up those cars, we can do 500, easy. |
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#109 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 12,637
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Not saying you are wrong, but you may be missing some qualification and nuance in what you appear to be saying. This isn't, strictly speaking, in accord with what the geologic record demonstrates. The problem with large scale, rapid releases of CH4 is that they overwhelm the mechanisms of atmospheric degradation of CH4 to CO2, meaning that large releases of methane into the atmosphere, have the potential to linger for tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and all the methane that is degraded is merely degraded to the longer potential persistence problem of atmospheric CO2 all the while exasperating the background warming.
(Note I'm speaking more to Clathrate devolution than peat/tundra soil emissions.) BTW, I see the science is still dragging toward the scenarios many of us understood and found well supported 2 decades or so ago. Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../14/1817205116
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Trakar "By doubting we come to inquiry, and through inquiry we perceive truth." — Peter Abelard "My civilization can do anything!" - David Brin (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i275AvgVvow) |
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#110 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,200
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David Archer, a climate scientist at the university of Chicago and one of the Realclimate contributors write this simulation where you can play around with this type of scenario.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...he-atmosphere/ http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/methane/ Here is the result for a really big Methane pulse (100Gt) occurring over a 5-year span (Much more rapid release than the one he’s looking at in hos blog post). This pulse is ~100X our current anthropogenic Methane emission and nominally ~100-200 years worth of equivalent CO2 at current emission rates. (Yearly CO2 emission is around 38Gt, CO2-eq is either 34X or 86X depending on what time horizon you select) Notice that even the peak radiative forcing for such a pulse isn’t ridiculously high and CO2 once again dominates changes radiative forcing within 30 years and within 50 it’s almost as if the pulse never even occurred. Also note that there is no evidence such a large pulse and rapid is even possible in the foreseeable future. Basically we are talking about a 100000% increase in Methane emissions in the artic and nothing like that is occurring or immanent. |
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#111 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,200
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I’m not entirely sure the model in my last post works for negative numbers, but here is what it shows if we were to immediately cut anthropogenic Methane emissions in half but keep emitting CO2 our current rate. The difference in radiative forcing is negligible in comparison to CO2.
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#112 |
Muse
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 586
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Industrial methane emissions are 100 times higher than reported, researchers say
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#113 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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I'll tell you what else isn't helping: the deceitful way the idiotic term "gigagrams" is used. We already have a long-established term for weights of that size - the universally-known "tonne", 1000 kg. A gigagram is 1000 tonnes, so why use a term that makes the total sound and look much scarier than it actually is? The only time I've ever seen the term used is for methane or CFC emissions.
Global CO2 emissions are ~35 gigatonnes, 35 million tonnes. The methane emission mentioned are 8 gigagrams, of 8,000 tonnes. Whilst indeed not helping, it's a drop in the ocean at 1/500th of a percentage point of the CO2 released worldwide. Typical Greenmunist tactic. "8000 tonnes doesn't sound like much - that's a very small ship, and less than 10% of the heaviest trains. Gigagrams sounds like a lot, though!" At a time when the world struggles with understanding the problem, using emotive terms doesn't help. Keep it real, people. (not blaming the poster - you're just posting what's written) |
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#114 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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Papers try to use units that reduce redundant zeros and reflect the uncertainty. Writing 29000 ((±18000) tonnes per year as 29 (±18) Gigagram per year is basic scientific scholarship. Well known scientific scholarship is not deceitful or idiotic. The results are the same whatever units that are used - fertilizers plans emit ~100 times the self-reported amounts of methane. You even suggest that that these are standard unis used for methane emissions!
Industrial methane emissions are underreported, study finds Estimation of methane emissions from the U.S. ammonia fertilizer industry using a mobile sensing approach |
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#115 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,200
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In the literature Petagrams is the most common unit I see used for CO2 emission. Tonnes seems more common when reporting to the public. In either case you probably need some context to tell you how significant some new source is, especially when it comes to Methane where people tend not to know what is normal.
I generally follow climate science and I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head if this was a truly meaningful new emission. As a general rule though, As I’ve said previously, the risks associated with Methane are overblown. The real problem scenarios are either CO2 driven or unlikely to occur given out best current understanding. |
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#116 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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I'm at least slightly happy they haven't resorted to the present idiotic way of giving measures like "eight football fields long" or "as much as ten elephants".
Pretty ho-hum overall, which is why I suspect they went with the scary number rather than tonnes. Methane looks like about 5 gT/yr, so another 0.2% won't make a huge difference. Mind you, there's an old saying about straws and camels' backs as I recall. |
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#117 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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Suspicion does not make scholarship wrong. A paper about methane emissions went with units that are used in methane emissions as you mentioned (The only time I've ever seen the term used is for methane or CFC emissions) and the units make sense when writing the numbers involved: Writing 29000 (±18000) tonnes per year as 29 (±18) Gigagram per year is basic scientific scholarship
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#118 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 28,521
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Not a huge numerical difference. But climate science tells us that small changes in greenhouse gases can have large changes in climate. Methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2.
Industrial methane emissions are 100 times higher than reported, researchers say
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#119 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#120 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 34,075
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Meanwhile, another feedback loop comes to fruition: more extreme weather = more use of fossil fuels to warm up/cool down, with energy emissions rising the fastest since 2011.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...t-fossil-fuels |
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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