[Split Thread] Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

plague311 · 20th December 2022, 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Agreed... but are they better off with Musk at the helm, than a more normal and competent CEO? I don't think so.

ETA: wow... TSLA losses now surpass half a trillion in market cap for the year.

Yeah, the losses are massive and going down more and more every day. It's showing at $137 right now.

I am all for it. I have no investments in Tesla, and I think Elmo is a ******* douche. I hope he drills it all into the ground and ends up having to sell it, or gets the boot, or something.

Elmo got lucky and hired the right people, as was mentioned before, but there's more to it than that. He should let Tesla buy him out and stick with Twitter. That way I can continue to watch this fall apart even more and still feel good.

trustbutverify · 20th December 2022, 04:16 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

I actually really wish he wasn’t doing this.

I know a lot of people had him pegged as a charlatan from the start and they may have been right. But that said he almost certainly has brought value to Tesla and SpaceX just by wrangling the talented engineers and generating the necessary hype. I never bought into the idea that he was some kind of mercurial genius (unlike some on these forums), but I do think SpaceX and Tesla are good things.

Now Musk is apparently arguing with a Tesla investor on Twitter. As usual, Musk presumably thinks his comebacks are witty and clever, but they are stupid and so is his general approach to Twitter.

https://twitter.com/steinkobbe/statu...I9GzY_RCAEvymw

I never thought he was a renaissance man, but this level of blundering stupidity is unexpected.

Gulliver Foyle · 21st December 2022, 12:13 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I don't know about that SpaceX thing. We were left with no manned space launch system for quite a number of years. Would lack of SpaceX existing have made NASA more efficient in manned missions, and/or given them more funding? I really rather doubt it.

If NASA were given sufficient funding to create their own system rather than the whole project being used as a source of corporate welfare, it would be much further along. NASA have been starved of funding for a long time.

The Don · 21st December 2022, 01:45 AM

Originally Posted by plague311

Yeah, the losses are massive and going down more and more every day. It's showing at $137 right now.

I am all for it. I have no investments in Tesla, and I think Elmo is a ******* douche. I hope he drills it all into the ground and ends up having to sell it, or gets the boot, or something.

Elmo got lucky and hired the right people, as was mentioned before, but there's more to it than that. He should let Tesla buy him out and stick with Twitter. That way I can continue to watch this fall apart even more and still feel good.

IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.

Samson · 21st December 2022, 03:58 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.

The chart shows another halving is perfectly possible, and.merely makes the stock 200% more expensive than pre covid.

jeremyp · 21st December 2022, 06:32 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.

The question that interests me at the moment is whether Elon Musk going back to Tesla would have a positive or negative effect on its market cap.

Until he took over Twitter, Musk's management "style" has never really had the spotlight it. It's now fairly apparent that he is not any good at it. Maybe, now that people have realised Musk is not a god, they will start examining the fundamentals of Tesla: firstly, you are correct about the share price. Tesla is vastly overvalued. Secondly, Tesla is in a bad position in the industry. Competition is increasing and Tesla doesn't really know how to put a car into production. I think it's missed the boat as a volume producer and its products are not good enough to compete in the Audi/BMW space. Build quality is allegedly terrible and some of the cars e.g. model 3 look cheap even though they are not.

Tesla needs somebody who knows how to run a car company and Twitter tells us that Musk is not that person.

Segnosaur · 21st December 2022, 09:48 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Quote:

Tesla would have been a better thing (but not so massively overvalued) without Musk, and without SpaceX, NASA would have been much further along in the rocket programme.

I don't know about that SpaceX thing. We were left with no manned space launch system for quite a number of years. Would lack of SpaceX existing have made NASA more efficient in manned missions, and/or given them more funding? I really rather doubt it.

Keep in mind that both Blue Origins and Boeing have both had some success. (Blue Origins has several manned space flights, and Boeing has run a resupply mission to the IIS and has a manned mission planned for 2023.)

Admittedly both of these are trailing SpaceX, who seemed to have more early success. But, its possible that without SpaceX, both Blue Origins and Boeing might have gotten a bigger chunk of cash (which might have helped them speed up their early development.)

lobosrul5 · 21st December 2022, 04:44 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/busin...ash/index.html

Tesla ‘full self-driving’ triggered an eight-car crash, a driver tells police

Rutt-row Elon.

mgidm86 · 21st December 2022, 09:37 PM

About the 8 car pileup...

Quote:

The pileup took place just hours after Tesla CEO Elon Musk had announced that Tesla’s driver-assist software “full self-driving” was available to anyone in North America who requested it. Tesla had previously restricted access to drivers with high safety scores on its rating system.

“Full self-driving” is designed to keep up with traffic, steer in the lane and abide by traffic signals. It requires an attentive human driver prepared to take full control of the car at any moment. It’s delighted some drivers but also alarmed others with its limitations. Drivers are warned by Tesla when they install “full self-driving” that it “may do the wrong thing at the worst time.”

Gee, I wonder if Tesla will be sued anyways? Jeebus!

Then again, at least in California, the person who rear-ends another car is legally at fault, barring any extenuating circumstances. The theory is that you were not following at a safe distance, and half the people on the road drive bumper to bumper at 70 mph around here.

However, if this car slowed down right after switching lanes in front of other cars that is a different matter. Not sure about that part of the story.

It may not be the Tesla/driver that is legally at fault.

ETA:
I think that law also covers a car broken down in the middle of the road on a blind turn, hitting a rock that had rolled down a hill and stopped in the road, person in a wheelchair. Your fault. Again, the reasoning is that you were going too fast for the conditions.

lobosrul5 · 22nd December 2022, 09:13 AM

Originally Posted by mgidm86

About the 8 car pileup...

Gee, I wonder if Tesla will be sued anyways? Jeebus!

Then again, at least in California, the person who rear-ends another car is legally at fault, barring any extenuating circumstances. The theory is that you were not following at a safe distance, and half the people on the road drive bumper to bumper at 70 mph around here.

However, if this car slowed down right after switching lanes in front of other cars that is a different matter. Not sure about that part of the story.

It may not be the Tesla/driver that is legally at fault.

ETA:
I think that law also covers a car broken down in the middle of the road on a blind turn, hitting a rock that had rolled down a hill and stopped in the road, person in a wheelchair. Your fault. Again, the reasoning is that you were going too fast for the conditions.

If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.

dudalb · 22nd December 2022, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

If NASA were given sufficient funding to create their own system rather than the whole project being used as a source of corporate welfare, it would be much further along. NASA have been starved of funding for a long time.

Forgive me, but you seem opposed to the mere idea of Private Space Travel;
What is wrong with a government hiring a private company to do work if it is the most economical way to get it done?

lobosrul5 · 22nd December 2022, 02:14 PM

TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.

angrysoba · 22nd December 2022, 02:37 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.

“Masterful gambit, sir!”

plague311 · 22nd December 2022, 02:54 PM

"Bold strategy, Cotton. Lets see if it pays off for him."

Segnosaur · 22nd December 2022, 03:41 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.

That seems kind of... weird/backwards. We are always encouraged "leave enough stopping distance". And in my driver's ed class (decades ago, but I don't think things have changed that much) we were told that if there is a rear-end collision the person behind is ALWAYS at fault. (Well, assuming nobody is going backwards.)

The instructor gave a story about one of his students. She was brand new and nervous. The first time behind the wheel, she saw a stoplight turn red and stopped, but she was far away from the intersection (i.e. still had 50 yards or so to go.) Someone hit her car. The instructor thought "this won't go well for the student" but the police told the second driver that it was all his fault.

Quote:

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.

One of the weird things about technology.

Tesla (or any other company) can in theory make a driverless system that is safer/outperforms a human 9 times out of 10, something that can avoid accidents that a human might either cause themselves, or are unable to avoid. But if it fails that one time out of 10, it will be see as evidence of "not ready for use" (even if the automated system didn't CAUSE the problem, but just couldn't avoid it.)

I don't really know if Tesla's system is safer than humans driving. But its going to be hard to get people to accept it even if it is.

mgidm86 · 22nd December 2022, 07:48 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.

That can be an extenuating circumstance and could be argued for sure. But again, the other driver was too close. It would need to be proven. "I thought I saw a squirrel"

That second paragraph should allow a lawsuit but I'm no lawyer. Tesla breaks the law selling cars that can be operated autonomously, writes the software, the software causes a crash, supposedly.

Puppycow · 22nd December 2022, 09:54 PM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.

Tesla shares tumble, on track for worst month ever

Quote:

Dec 22 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shares are on track for their worst month ever as a sell-off deepened on Thursday over worries about softening demand for electric cars and Chief Executive Elon Musk's distraction with Twitter.

The stock dropped almost 10% on Thursday to their lowest level since September 2020 after the automaker's website showed it was offering $7,500 discounts on Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles delivered in the United States this month.

angrysoba · 22nd December 2022, 10:24 PM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Tesla shares tumble, on track for worst month ever

Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. One of Elon Musk's biggest fanboys, Jordan Peterson, is currently decrying Canada's decision to move to sales of zero-emission vehicles who is also now leaning into his catch phrase of "up yours, woke moralists!"

Link

Puppycow · 22nd December 2022, 11:54 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla.

The shares were overvalued to begin with, and are simply coming closer to what one might reasonably expect them to be worth.

I've posted this before, but even at the current share price, Tesla's market cap is over twice that of Toyota, but Toyota's earnings are more than twice Tesla's. The P/E ratio is over three times higher than Toyota.

Frankly, I think that Musk's antics are harming the Tesla brand. If you want an electric vehicle, Tesla is not the only option. Their market share is declining.

Why Tesla’s Market Share Is Set To Plunge In 2023

Aridas · 23rd December 2022, 12:05 AM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Forgive me, but you seem opposed to the mere idea of Private Space Travel;
What is wrong with a government hiring a private company to do work if it is the most economical way to get it done?

Caveat - IF it's actually the most economical way to do it.

jeremyp · 23rd December 2022, 12:24 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. One of Elon Musk's biggest fanboys, Jordan Peterson, is currently decrying Canada's decision to move to sales of zero-emission vehicles who is also now leaning into his catch phrase of "up yours, woke moralists!"

Link

There’s a new US government subsidy coming in in January. Nobody in America wants to buy a Tesla this month, they want them next month.

angrysoba · 23rd December 2022, 01:00 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

There’s a new US government subsidy coming in in January. Nobody in America wants to buy a Tesla this month, they want them next month.

Interesting. So this fall in price could be temporary….?

The Great Zaganza · 23rd December 2022, 01:13 AM

The general trend is for Electricity prices to remain high, as cars that used to run on gasoline become electrified.
Add to that the increased need for climate change mitigation through electric AC.

Lplus · 23rd December 2022, 02:15 AM

Originally Posted by Aridas

Caveat - IF it's actually the most economical way to do it.

There are those who don't care if it's the most economical way or not, if it's private enterprise it's bad.

catsmate · 23rd December 2022, 03:26 AM

Originally Posted by Lplus

There are those who don't care if it's the most economical way or not, if it's private enterprise it's bad.

Equally vociferous are the "private enterprise is always better" advocates.

The Don · 23rd December 2022, 03:34 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Here in the UK demand for electric vehicles is very strong but Tesla is losing market share.

Part of it is that there is far more choice at the Tesla price points from well established manufacturers and part of it is that Teslas are very expensive here in the UK and so people are choosing less expensive models both from well established manufacturers and from new entrants into the market from China.

The MG4 is currently getting good reviews. It may not have the range of a Tesla, but it'd be good enough for most people most of the time but it costs under £27k, the cheapest Model 3 is over £45k.

My next car will almost certainly be an EV, though I hope it'll be a good few years before I need to buy one. It's very likely that I'd buy a VAG group vehicle instead of a Tesla.

jeremyp · 23rd December 2022, 04:04 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Interesting. So this fall in price could be temporary….?

I'm going to partially walk back what I said. The new tax credit is a major factor, but there are several others.

https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/...ices-dropping/

I think Tesla is in trouble regardless of the tax credit situation. It's got no new models. The second hand market is saturated. Other manufacturers are beginning to erode its market position. The CEO is AWOL (although that might be a positive).

jeremyp · 23rd December 2022, 04:07 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

My next car will almost certainly be an EV, though I hope it'll be a good few years before I need to buy one. It's very likely that I'd buy a VAG group vehicle instead of a Tesla.

Likewise. My current car is a 2014 Audi but it's got plenty of life in it yet. I can wait for years before I have to make a decision on a new car. What I can say is it will be a cold day in hell before I put money into the pocket of Elon Musk.

Puppycow · 23rd December 2022, 05:22 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

I think Tesla is in trouble regardless of the tax credit situation. It's got no new models.

But they already have all the models they need. An S, a 3 an X and a Y, which spells S3XY.

jeremyp · 23rd December 2022, 07:40 AM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

But they already have all the models they need. An S, a 3 an X and a Y, which spells S3XY.

That must be why they have failed to release the Cybertruck

Here_to_learn · 23rd December 2022, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

That must be why they have failed to release the Cybertruck

There is the Cybertruck, ATV, Roadster and Semi spelling the second word.

lobosrul5 · 23rd December 2022, 09:03 AM

At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/...ealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.

azazal · 23rd December 2022, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/...ealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.

Hmm, an industry leader initially provides an inovative and wanted product. However, after being the top dog for years, it becomes complacent and stops inovating. Instead it tells it's consumers to be grateful for what they are getting and to shut up. Soon said leader is stagnent in the market and is losing its lead to German and Japanese competitors. Now where have I seen this before...?

lobosrul5 · 23rd December 2022, 09:39 AM

Originally Posted by azazal

Hmm, an industry leader initially provides an inovative and wanted product. However, after being the top dog for years, it becomes complacent and stops inovating. Instead it tells it's consumers to be grateful for what they are getting and to shut up. Soon said leader is stagnent in the market and is losing its lead to German and Japanese competitors. Now where have I seen this before...?

Oh yeah there are parallels between this and Detroit (or British Leyland) circa 1980. I don't recall if any of those companies had major shareholders leverage their holdings as part of a leveraged buyout of a media company and then started using it as a mouthpiece to spew garbage that many of their potential buyers disliked though.

Dr. Keith · 23rd December 2022, 09:46 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/...ealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.

The Tesla charging network is their ace in the hole. If anyone else had anything similar there would be little reason to buy a Tesla.

lobosrul5 · 23rd December 2022, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith

The Tesla charging network is their ace in the hole. If anyone else had anything similar there would be little reason to buy a Tesla.

My thoughts on that are...

I've been looking at their plans for buildouts in my area (New Mexico). And they've already fallen behind what they said. Its not possible to get around all of rural NM or Colorado without being very very careful on where you charge, and if one station is down, you could be stranded. Look at the supercharger map and you'll see huge gaps in north central NM and south central Co. ETA: huge gap in SE New Mexico, but I'd never travel down there for any reason that I can think of.

But more than that... so there are resource costs to build lithium-ion batteries. Including carbon emissions. For my usage the 35 mi or so range of the new Prius is plenty for day to day usage. I'd probably only put 3 or 4 thousand miles on the ICE each year, or about 60 to 80 gls of gas. Is that enough to make building and towing around Tesla's much larger battery more economical, even from a carbon emission standpoint? I really doubt it.

I think the PHEV model for much of the world is going to be the way to go for a number of decades.

Dr. Keith · 23rd December 2022, 10:32 AM

I understand BEVs don’t work for as many people as a PHEV would. I was just pointing out the one real advantage Tesla currently has over its competitors: you get twice as many charging points, more or less.

So, more areas are drivable in a Tesla BEV than in a VAG, Stellantis, GM, Korean Twin, or Ford BEV.

But that may not mean that your area is driveable in any BEV, yet.

plague311 · 23rd December 2022, 11:11 AM

How long until Tesla makes some form of adapter that will allow all vehicles charge from their stations so that they can charge them for it? It would actually be a good move.

jeremyp · 23rd December 2022, 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith

I understand BEVs don’t work for as many people as a PHEV would. I was just pointing out the one real advantage Tesla currently has over its competitors: you get twice as many charging points, more or less.

So, more areas are drivable in a Tesla BEV than in a VAG, Stellantis, GM, Korean Twin, or Ford BEV.

But that may not mean that your area is driveable in any BEV, yet.

There needs to be legislation to make charging points universal.

Fast Eddie B · 23rd December 2022, 11:40 AM

Originally Posted by plague311

How long until Tesla makes some form of adapter that will allow all vehicles charge from their stations so that they can charge them for it? It would actually be a good move.

Not sure of the time frame, but Tesla definitely has plans to open its Supercharger network to other brands.

Pros: Could end up being a huge revenue source going forward, plus it may entitle them to more government incentives for doing so.

Cons: Nothing will disillusion current Tesla owners faster than having to wait for a Supercharger because the stalls are filled with other brands. Right now, a major selling point for Tesla is their Supercharger network. That selling point vanishes if any EV can use it. Tesla will need to continue to grow its Supercharger network to keep up with demand.

20th December 2022, 03:40 PM	#1
plague311 Great minds think... Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: North Dakota Posts: 13,815	Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla Originally Posted by lobosrul5 Agreed... but are they better off with Musk at the helm, than a more normal and competent CEO? I don't think so. ETA: wow... TSLA losses now surpass half a trillion in market cap for the year. Yeah, the losses are massive and going down more and more every day. It's showing at $137 right now. I am all for it. I have no investments in Tesla, and I think Elmo is a ******* douche. I hope he drills it all into the ground and ends up having to sell it, or gets the boot, or something. Elmo got lucky and hired the right people, as was mentioned before, but there's more to it than that. He should let Tesla buy him out and stick with Twitter. That way I can continue to watch this fall apart even more and still feel good.
	__________________ “There are times when the mind is dealt such a blow it hides itself in insanity. While this may not seem beneficial, it is. There are times when reality is nothing but pain, and to escape that pain the mind must leave reality behind.” - Patrick Rothfuss

20th December 2022, 04:16 PM	#2
trustbutverify Penultimate Amazing Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 10,167	Originally Posted by angrysoba I actually really wish he wasn’t doing this. I know a lot of people had him pegged as a charlatan from the start and they may have been right. But that said he almost certainly has brought value to Tesla and SpaceX just by wrangling the talented engineers and generating the necessary hype. I never bought into the idea that he was some kind of mercurial genius (unlike some on these forums), but I do think SpaceX and Tesla are good things. Now Musk is apparently arguing with a Tesla investor on Twitter. As usual, Musk presumably thinks his comebacks are witty and clever, but they are stupid and so is his general approach to Twitter. https://twitter.com/steinkobbe/statu...I9GzY_RCAEvymw I never thought he was a renaissance man, but this level of blundering stupidity is unexpected.
	__________________ "To me, Hitler is the greatest man who ever lived. He truly is without fault, so simple and at the same time possessed of masculine strength" -Leni Riefenstahl Wollen owns the stage

21st December 2022, 09:48 AM	#7
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 20,313	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 Quote: Tesla would have been a better thing (but not so massively overvalued) without Musk, and without SpaceX, NASA would have been much further along in the rocket programme. I don't know about that SpaceX thing. We were left with no manned space launch system for quite a number of years. Would lack of SpaceX existing have made NASA more efficient in manned missions, and/or given them more funding? I really rather doubt it. Keep in mind that both Blue Origins and Boeing have both had some success. (Blue Origins has several manned space flights, and Boeing has run a resupply mission to the IIS and has a manned mission planned for 2023.) Admittedly both of these are trailing SpaceX, who seemed to have more early success. But, its possible that without SpaceX, both Blue Origins and Boeing might have gotten a bigger chunk of cash (which might have helped them speed up their early development.)
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

21st December 2022, 04:44 PM	#8
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175	https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/busin...ash/index.html Tesla ‘full self-driving’ triggered an eight-car crash, a driver tells police Rutt-row Elon.
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175

21st December 2022, 09:37 PM	#9
mgidm86 Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 8,624	About the 8 car pileup... Quote: The pileup took place just hours after Tesla CEO Elon Musk had announced that Tesla’s driver-assist software “full self-driving” was available to anyone in North America who requested it. Tesla had previously restricted access to drivers with high safety scores on its rating system. “Full self-driving” is designed to keep up with traffic, steer in the lane and abide by traffic signals. It requires an attentive human driver prepared to take full control of the car at any moment. It’s delighted some drivers but also alarmed others with its limitations. Drivers are warned by Tesla when they install “full self-driving” that it “may do the wrong thing at the worst time.” Gee, I wonder if Tesla will be sued anyways? Jeebus! Then again, at least in California, the person who rear-ends another car is legally at fault, barring any extenuating circumstances. The theory is that you were not following at a safe distance, and half the people on the road drive bumper to bumper at 70 mph around here. However, if this car slowed down right after switching lanes in front of other cars that is a different matter. Not sure about that part of the story. It may not be the Tesla/driver that is legally at fault. ETA: I think that law also covers a car broken down in the middle of the road on a blind turn, hitting a rock that had rolled down a hill and stopped in the road, person in a wheelchair. Your fault. Again, the reasoning is that you were going too fast for the conditions.
mgidm86 Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 8,624	__________________ Why bother? Last edited by mgidm86; 21st December 2022 at 09:45 PM.

21st December 2022, 12:13 AM	#3
Gulliver Foyle Master Poster Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Cork baaaiii Posts: 2,503	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 I don't know about that SpaceX thing. We were left with no manned space launch system for quite a number of years. Would lack of SpaceX existing have made NASA more efficient in manned missions, and/or given them more funding? I really rather doubt it. If NASA were given sufficient funding to create their own system rather than the whole project being used as a source of corporate welfare, it would be much further along. NASA have been starved of funding for a long time.

21st December 2022, 01:45 AM	#4
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 37,011	Originally Posted by plague311 Yeah, the losses are massive and going down more and more every day. It's showing at $137 right now. I am all for it. I have no investments in Tesla, and I think Elmo is a ******* douche. I hope he drills it all into the ground and ends up having to sell it, or gets the boot, or something. Elmo got lucky and hired the right people, as was mentioned before, but there's more to it than that. He should let Tesla buy him out and stick with Twitter. That way I can continue to watch this fall apart even more and still feel good. IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively. The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products. Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market. IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.

21st December 2022, 03:58 AM	#5
Samson Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 11,501	Originally Posted by The Don IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively. The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products. Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market. IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation. The chart shows another halving is perfectly possible, and.merely makes the stock 200% more expensive than pre covid.

21st December 2022, 06:32 AM	#6
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by The Don IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively. The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products. Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market. IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation. The question that interests me at the moment is whether Elon Musk going back to Tesla would have a positive or negative effect on its market cap. Until he took over Twitter, Musk's management "style" has never really had the spotlight it. It's now fairly apparent that he is not any good at it. Maybe, now that people have realised Musk is not a god, they will start examining the fundamentals of Tesla: firstly, you are correct about the share price. Tesla is vastly overvalued. Secondly, Tesla is in a bad position in the industry. Competition is increasing and Tesla doesn't really know how to put a car into production. I think it's missed the boat as a volume producer and its products are not good enough to compete in the Audi/BMW space. Build quality is allegedly terrible and some of the cars e.g. model 3 look cheap even though they are not. Tesla needs somebody who knows how to run a car company and Twitter tells us that Musk is not that person.

22nd December 2022, 09:13 AM	#10
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175	Originally Posted by mgidm86 About the 8 car pileup... Gee, I wonder if Tesla will be sued anyways? Jeebus! Then again, at least in California, the person who rear-ends another car is legally at fault, barring any extenuating circumstances. The theory is that you were not following at a safe distance, and half the people on the road drive bumper to bumper at 70 mph around here. However, if this car slowed down right after switching lanes in front of other cars that is a different matter. Not sure about that part of the story. It may not be the Tesla/driver that is legally at fault. ETA: I think that law also covers a car broken down in the middle of the road on a blind turn, hitting a rock that had rolled down a hill and stopped in the road, person in a wheelchair. Your fault. Again, the reasoning is that you were going too fast for the conditions. If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area. Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175

22nd December 2022, 01:03 PM	#11
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 59,466	Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle If NASA were given sufficient funding to create their own system rather than the whole project being used as a source of corporate welfare, it would be much further along. NASA have been starved of funding for a long time. Forgive me, but you seem opposed to the mere idea of Private Space Travel; What is wrong with a government hiring a private company to do work if it is the most economical way to get it done?
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

22nd December 2022, 02:14 PM	#12
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175	TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175

22nd December 2022, 02:37 PM	#13
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 34,960	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to. “Masterful gambit, sir!”
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

22nd December 2022, 02:54 PM	#14
plague311 Great minds think... Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: North Dakota Posts: 13,815	"Bold strategy, Cotton. Lets see if it pays off for him."
	__________________ “There are times when the mind is dealt such a blow it hides itself in insanity. While this may not seem beneficial, it is. There are times when reality is nothing but pain, and to escape that pain the mind must leave reality behind.” - Patrick Rothfuss

22nd December 2022, 03:41 PM	#15
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 20,313	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area. That seems kind of... weird/backwards. We are always encouraged "leave enough stopping distance". And in my driver's ed class (decades ago, but I don't think things have changed that much) we were told that if there is a rear-end collision the person behind is ALWAYS at fault. (Well, assuming nobody is going backwards.) The instructor gave a story about one of his students. She was brand new and nervous. The first time behind the wheel, she saw a stoplight turn red and stopped, but she was far away from the intersection (i.e. still had 50 yards or so to go.) Someone hit her car. The instructor thought "this won't go well for the student" but the police told the second driver that it was all his fault. Quote: Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves. One of the weird things about technology. Tesla (or any other company) can in theory make a driverless system that is safer/outperforms a human 9 times out of 10, something that can avoid accidents that a human might either cause themselves, or are unable to avoid. But if it fails that one time out of 10, it will be see as evidence of "not ready for use" (even if the automated system didn't CAUSE the problem, but just couldn't avoid it.) I don't really know if Tesla's system is safer than humans driving. But its going to be hard to get people to accept it even if it is.
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

22nd December 2022, 07:48 PM	#16
mgidm86 Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 8,624	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area. Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves. That can be an extenuating circumstance and could be argued for sure. But again, the other driver was too close. It would need to be proven. "I thought I saw a squirrel" That second paragraph should allow a lawsuit but I'm no lawyer. Tesla breaks the law selling cars that can be operated autonomously, writes the software, the software causes a crash, supposedly.
mgidm86 Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 8,624	__________________ Why bother? Last edited by mgidm86; 22nd December 2022 at 07:50 PM.

22nd December 2022, 09:54 PM	#17
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Yokohama, Japan Posts: 28,390	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to. Tesla shares tumble, on track for worst month ever Quote: Dec 22 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shares are on track for their worst month ever as a sell-off deepened on Thursday over worries about softening demand for electric cars and Chief Executive Elon Musk's distraction with Twitter. The stock dropped almost 10% on Thursday to their lowest level since September 2020 after the automaker's website showed it was offering $7,500 discounts on Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles delivered in the United States this month.
	__________________ A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare

22nd December 2022, 10:24 PM	#18
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 34,960	Originally Posted by Puppycow Tesla shares tumble, on track for worst month ever Why would the demand for electric cars be softening? Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. One of Elon Musk's biggest fanboys, Jordan Peterson, is currently decrying Canada's decision to move to sales of zero-emission vehicles who is also now leaning into his catch phrase of "up yours, woke moralists!" Link
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

22nd December 2022, 11:54 PM	#19
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Yokohama, Japan Posts: 28,390	Originally Posted by angrysoba Why would the demand for electric cars be softening? Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. The shares were overvalued to begin with, and are simply coming closer to what one might reasonably expect them to be worth. I've posted this before, but even at the current share price, Tesla's market cap is over twice that of Toyota, but Toyota's earnings are more than twice Tesla's. The P/E ratio is over three times higher than Toyota. Frankly, I think that Musk's antics are harming the Tesla brand. If you want an electric vehicle, Tesla is not the only option. Their market share is declining. Why Tesla’s Market Share Is Set To Plunge In 2023
	__________________ A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare

23rd December 2022, 12:05 AM	#20
Aridas Crazy Little Green Dragon Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: East Coast, US Posts: 10,276	Originally Posted by dudalb Forgive me, but you seem opposed to the mere idea of Private Space Travel; What is wrong with a government hiring a private company to do work if it is the most economical way to get it done? Caveat - IF it's actually the most economical way to do it.
	__________________ So sayeth the crazy little dragon.

23rd December 2022, 12:24 AM	#21
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by angrysoba Why would the demand for electric cars be softening? Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. One of Elon Musk's biggest fanboys, Jordan Peterson, is currently decrying Canada's decision to move to sales of zero-emission vehicles who is also now leaning into his catch phrase of "up yours, woke moralists!" Link There’s a new US government subsidy coming in in January. Nobody in America wants to buy a Tesla this month, they want them next month.

23rd December 2022, 01:00 AM	#22
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 34,960	Originally Posted by jeremyp There’s a new US government subsidy coming in in January. Nobody in America wants to buy a Tesla this month, they want them next month. Interesting. So this fall in price could be temporary….?
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

23rd December 2022, 01:13 AM	#23
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Photo Contest Winner Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 20,803	The general trend is for Electricity prices to remain high, as cars that used to run on gasoline become electrified. Add to that the increased need for climate change mitigation through electric AC.
	__________________ “Don’t blame me. I voted for Kodos.”

23rd December 2022, 02:15 AM	#24
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,895	Originally Posted by Aridas Caveat - IF it's actually the most economical way to do it. There are those who don't care if it's the most economical way or not, if it's private enterprise it's bad.
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,895	__________________ It is not possible to please all of the people all of the time. It isn't possible to please all of the people some of the time. It isn't even possible to please some of the people at all.

23rd December 2022, 03:26 AM	#25
catsmate No longer the 1 Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 29,368	Originally Posted by Lplus There are those who don't care if it's the most economical way or not, if it's private enterprise it's bad. Equally vociferous are the "private enterprise is always better" advocates.
	__________________ As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.

23rd December 2022, 03:34 AM	#26
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 37,011	Originally Posted by angrysoba Why would the demand for electric cars be softening? Here in the UK demand for electric vehicles is very strong but Tesla is losing market share. Part of it is that there is far more choice at the Tesla price points from well established manufacturers and part of it is that Teslas are very expensive here in the UK and so people are choosing less expensive models both from well established manufacturers and from new entrants into the market from China. The MG4 is currently getting good reviews. It may not have the range of a Tesla, but it'd be good enough for most people most of the time but it costs under £27k, the cheapest Model 3 is over £45k. My next car will almost certainly be an EV, though I hope it'll be a good few years before I need to buy one. It's very likely that I'd buy a VAG group vehicle instead of a Tesla.

23rd December 2022, 04:04 AM	#27
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by angrysoba Interesting. So this fall in price could be temporary….? I'm going to partially walk back what I said. The new tax credit is a major factor, but there are several others. https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/...ices-dropping/ I think Tesla is in trouble regardless of the tax credit situation. It's got no new models. The second hand market is saturated. Other manufacturers are beginning to erode its market position. The CEO is AWOL (although that might be a positive).

23rd December 2022, 04:07 AM	#28
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by The Don My next car will almost certainly be an EV, though I hope it'll be a good few years before I need to buy one. It's very likely that I'd buy a VAG group vehicle instead of a Tesla. Likewise. My current car is a 2014 Audi but it's got plenty of life in it yet. I can wait for years before I have to make a decision on a new car. What I can say is it will be a cold day in hell before I put money into the pocket of Elon Musk.

23rd December 2022, 05:22 AM	#29
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Yokohama, Japan Posts: 28,390	Originally Posted by jeremyp I think Tesla is in trouble regardless of the tax credit situation. It's got no new models. But they already have all the models they need. An S, a 3 an X and a Y, which spells S3XY.
	__________________ A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare

23rd December 2022, 07:40 AM	#30
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by Puppycow But they already have all the models they need. An S, a 3 an X and a Y, which spells S3XY. That must be why they have failed to release the Cybertruck

23rd December 2022, 08:56 AM	#31
Here_to_learn Master Poster Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 2,802	Originally Posted by jeremyp That must be why they have failed to release the Cybertruck There is the Cybertruck, ATV, Roadster and Semi spelling the second word.

23rd December 2022, 09:03 AM	#32
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175	At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out... https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/...ealed-gallery/ Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450. Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175

23rd December 2022, 09:31 AM	#33
azazal Ninja Wave: Techno Ninja Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 466	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out... https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/...ealed-gallery/ Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450. Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share. Hmm, an industry leader initially provides an inovative and wanted product. However, after being the top dog for years, it becomes complacent and stops inovating. Instead it tells it's consumers to be grateful for what they are getting and to shut up. Soon said leader is stagnent in the market and is losing its lead to German and Japanese competitors. Now where have I seen this before...?
	__________________ _____________________________________________ My gun collection has killed 5 fewer people than the Kennedy clan has with cars, airplanes and golf clubs. - Ranb

23rd December 2022, 09:39 AM	#34
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175	Originally Posted by azazal Hmm, an industry leader initially provides an inovative and wanted product. However, after being the top dog for years, it becomes complacent and stops inovating. Instead it tells it's consumers to be grateful for what they are getting and to shut up. Soon said leader is stagnent in the market and is losing its lead to German and Japanese competitors. Now where have I seen this before...? Oh yeah there are parallels between this and Detroit (or British Leyland) circa 1980. I don't recall if any of those companies had major shareholders leverage their holdings as part of a leveraged buyout of a media company and then started using it as a mouthpiece to spew garbage that many of their potential buyers disliked though.
lobosrul5 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 6,175

23rd December 2022, 09:46 AM	#35
Dr. Keith Not a doctor. Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Texas Posts: 25,668	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out... https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/...ealed-gallery/ Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450. Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share. The Tesla charging network is their ace in the hole. If anyone else had anything similar there would be little reason to buy a Tesla.
	__________________ Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God. He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.