[Split Thread] Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla - Page 5

Gulliver Foyle · 2nd March 2023, 12:11 AM

Originally Posted by Brainster

Wishing it was so doesn't make it so. Tesla seems to be doing spectacularly; they made $12.5 billion last year. Revenues were up over 50%, which is amazing for a company of that size. I look at the financials of many companies and Tesla's are outstandingly strong; about the only criticism I'd offer is that they have too much cash on hand. They should deploy it or return it to the shareholders as dividends.

For all their talk Tesla has never broken into the big leagues in terms of vehicles sold. And now that the traditional manufacturers are getting serious you are seeing electric vehicles being sold which don't fall apart if you look at them wrong and which bear some passing resemblence to advertised performance levels that's only going to get worse.

Tesla has never managed to break into the European market properly, and that's where it's going to die.

Gulliver Foyle · 2nd March 2023, 12:13 AM

Originally Posted by Ryokan

Rumours have it that Musk will announce a cheap Tesla, nicknamed Tesla Model 2 in social media, in March.

It will be a small crossover SUV with price around $25k.

It's rumoured it will be in production already this year, which in Tesla speak probably means 2024 or 2025.

I suspect Tesla stock will rise if this rumour holds true.

The model 3 is their cheap car. I won't hold my breath on that grifter delivering on a promise.

jeremyp · 2nd March 2023, 12:21 AM

Originally Posted by Brainster

Lots of assertions in there; no links, no backup, no analysis. You hate Musk and therefore his company is doomed. I'm actually not a big fan, but I can read financial statements. This is a very healthy company still in its rapid growth phase. The P/E is currently down to around 50. This is anecdotal, but I see the cars everywhere; maybe it's just that they are so distinctive looking with that Porsche 911 hood (and almost white).

Tesla’s last new model released was when?

The Cybertruck and Tesla semi were announced when?

The Don · 2nd March 2023, 01:00 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

Tesla’s last new model released was when?

The Cybertruck and Tesla semi were announced when?

The Model Y was released in 2019 but it's really just a Model 3 on stilts.

I agree with those who are skeptical about Tesla's very long term future. IMO they're not going to go to the wall and I doubt whether they'll ever be taken over by a competitor thanks to their inflated share price. I reckon that their future is to be like BMW, an independent, profitable, comparatively niche, manufacturer of aspirational vehicles.

Far eastern manufacturers are showing that they are adept at making comparatively affordable EVs and so I don't see Tesla being able to expand to 5-10 million vehicles a year. 2-3 million a year is a definite possibility IMO which would put them in the BMW volume range.

The cheapest Tesla available in the UK is the Model 3 at £42k+. By contrast the recently launched MG SUV is £30k, a big saving.

Ryokan · 2nd March 2023, 04:23 AM

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Tesla has never managed to break into the European market properly, and that's where it's going to die.

Having the most sold and the second most sold EV i Europe in 2022 doesn't count as properly breaking into the European market?

Yes, Volkswagen sold more electric cars than Tesla, 350k against Tesla's 232k. They have more models on sale, and they are a well known and trusted brand in Europe.

So if you look at total electric cars sold, Tesla is #2 in Europe behind Volkswagen. And that's just 10 years after the first Tesla Model S was released.

I don't know how anyone can look at those numbers and say, "yeah, this company is failing." What other car manufacturer can point to that kind of success in that amount of time?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...models-europe/

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/lat...est-selling-ev

Ryokan · 2nd March 2023, 04:28 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

The cheapest Tesla available in the UK is the Model 3 at £42k+. By contrast the recently launched MG SUV is £30k, a big saving.

370km range vs Tesla Model Y's 533km.

And that's even with a bigger battery than the Tesla.

The Don · 2nd March 2023, 04:50 AM

Originally Posted by Ryokan

370km range vs Tesla Model Y's 533km.

And that's even with a bigger battery than the Tesla.

True, but for most people almost all of the time an affordable car with a shorter range trumps a more expensive car with a longer range.

There's little doubt that Tesla provides the most efficient £45k EV out there, it's just that the market for £45k vehicles in the UK is somewhat niche. The "winner" in the UK's market IMO is the manufacturer who is able to provide a useful, usable, vehicle for £20k-£30k.

Ryokan · 2nd March 2023, 05:13 AM

As in the rest of Europe, the most sold electric cars in the UK last year were the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla Model 3. They outsold their competitors by an extremely large margin.

Further down the list you find a lot of cheaper alternatives. Yet, they didn't sell as much.

https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/the-u...-cars-of-2022/

The Don · 2nd March 2023, 06:31 AM

Originally Posted by Ryokan

As in the rest of Europe, the most sold electric cars in the UK last year were the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla Model 3. They outsold their competitors by an extremely large margin.

Further down the list you find a lot of cheaper alternatives. Yet, they didn't sell as much.

https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/the-u...-cars-of-2022/

Yes, and I think that's what I'd expect at this stage of the market - or at least in the UK's stage of the market.

At the moment, people who buy EVs tend to be well-heeled early adopters. The cost of a new Tesla (or indeed any new or comparatively new used EV) is well beyond the means of the vast majority of people. The people who buy Teslas are doing so as an alternative to a BWM, Audi or Mercedes rather than as an alternative to a Dacia, Vauxhall or Skoda.

The latter people (and I include myself in that number

) are unwilling or unable to find £40k+ for their next vehicle and instead are looking for something sub-£30k (or in my case something used sub £15k). Unless Tesla manage to produce the Model 2 and make it available for sale for £20k-£25k then Tesla isn't going to reach this large part of the market.

That said, it's not been a major hindrance for BMW to become a profitable company, I doubt whether it'll be a major problem for Tesla either.

Segnosaur · 2nd March 2023, 07:56 AM

Originally Posted by wareyin

Quote:

Rumours have it that Musk will announce a cheap Tesla, nicknamed Tesla Model 2 in social media, in March.

It will be a small crossover SUV with price around $25k.

Anyone putting a lot of stock into rumors about new Tesla models going into production should pay a lot of attention to how many Cybertrucks are on the road right now.

Are these even rumors from Tesla insiders, or is this just what some guy in the pub is saying?

Well for what its worth, some of the information is coming from Tesla itself.

From: MSN (originally canadian press)
Tesla says it will cut the cost of its next generation of vehicles in half, largely by using innovative manufacturing techniques and smaller factories....CEO Elon Musk and other executives outlined the goals during a 3 1/2-hour investor day presentation...The changes could bring the cost of a new generation of vehicles to around $25,000...

So, supposedly lots of plans, but no real details for the plan to bring in "cheap" EVs. (nothing about model numbers, or even whether these will be new models or just modifications or existing models.). And as you suggested, the experience with the Cybertruck should mean any plans from Tesla should be viewed with skepticism.

jeremyp · 2nd March 2023, 09:25 AM

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Well for what its worth, some of the information is coming from Tesla itself.

From: MSN (originally canadian press)
Tesla says it will cut the cost of its next generation of vehicles in half, largely by using innovative manufacturing techniques and smaller factories....CEO Elon Musk and other executives outlined the goals during a 3 1/2-hour investor day presentation...The changes could bring the cost of a new generation of vehicles to around $25,000...

So, supposedly lots of plans, but no real details for the plan to bring in "cheap" EVs. (nothing about model numbers, or even whether these will be new models or just modifications or existing models.). And as you suggested, the experience with the Cybertruck should mean any plans from Tesla should be viewed with skepticism.

Here's a more balanced take on the investor day

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/03...ails-are-scant

They claim that they will be producing 20 million cars a year in 2030. That's twice as many as Toyota is selling now. It's also pretty depressing because we need to be making fewer cars, not more.

Also their claims about halving the cost is clearly marketing ********. They'll halve the cost in much the same way as they'll have self driving taxis in 2019.

ETA: there was no news of any new models, no news of facelifts for the 3 or the Y and no news of the Cybertruck going into production.

Trebuchet · 2nd March 2023, 09:54 AM

Musk buying GM is more likely than GM buying Tesla, I think. But still not likely at all.

Fast Eddie B · 2nd March 2023, 11:45 AM

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

For all their talk Tesla has never broken into the big leagues in terms of vehicles sold. And now that the traditional manufacturers are getting serious you are seeing electric vehicles being sold which don't fall apart if you look at them wrong and which bear some passing resemblence to advertised performance levels that's only going to get worse.

Tesla has never managed to break into the European market properly, and that's where it's going to die.

I think your apparent hatred of Elon Musk has severely clouded your view of reality. I was going to respond to your rant with a point-by-point refutation, but don’t care to waste my time.

Bogative · 2nd March 2023, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by Ryokan

Yes, Volkswagen sold more electric cars than Tesla, 350k against Tesla's 232k. They have more models on sale, and they are a well known and trusted brand in Europe.

That may only be because of a supply issue. With Tesla's Berlin plant coming online and rapidly increasing its production rates, they may surpass VW in short order.

Quote:

March 2022: first customer deliveries
June 18,2022: production rate of 1,000 Tesla Model Y per week
October 1,2022: production rate of 2,000 Tesla Model Y per week
December 18,2022: production rate of 3,000 Tesla Model Y per week
February 27,2023: production rate of 4,000 Tesla Model Y per week

Time will tell whether the Tesla Giga Berlin will exceed 5,000 units per week or even reach 10,000 per week (roughly 500,000 per year), which is the planned maximum capacity for the site according to Reuters.

https://insideevs.com/news/654658/te...4000cars-week/

Fast Eddie B · 2nd March 2023, 12:30 PM

Deleted duplicate.

Shalamar · 2nd March 2023, 12:34 PM

There has been some lament among Tesla owners about the Tesla Supercharger network to non Teslas, which has just started in the USA.

Teslas are popular EVs, and several Superchargers are already very crowded, and this will make it worse.

It's good for EV adoption though. .The supercharger network is robust, and well maintained. Fortunately, about 95% of my charging is done at home.

Ryokan · 2nd March 2023, 01:00 PM

Tesla superchargers in Europe have been open to everyone for some time now. The doom and gloom predicted by some never came to be.

ZirconBlue · 2nd March 2023, 02:42 PM

Originally Posted by Ryokan

As in the rest of Europe, the most sold electric cars in the UK last year were the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla Model 3. They outsold their competitors by an extremely large margin.

Further down the list you find a lot of cheaper alternatives. Yet, they didn't sell as much.

https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/the-u...-cars-of-2022/

Sounds like Tesla may find itself in an Apple vs. Android situation. iPhones may be the most popular single phone, but Android dominates the total market with lots of different manufacturers.

angrysoba · 2nd March 2023, 06:42 PM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

They claim that they will be producing 20 million cars a year in 2030. That's twice as many as Toyota is selling now. It's also pretty depressing because we need to be making fewer cars, not more.
.

This seems like moving the goalposts and a heads I win, tails you lose gambit as well.

First we are attacking Musk because his stupid company is failing, but then when it is not failing it is bad because of the planet.

This is the same type of criticism as “They are too expensive!” Followed by “Drop the price and you’re an *******!”

Listen, my bias is against Musk. I will state that clearly. But I couldn’t make these types of arguments with a straight face.

We can’t wag our fingers because he’s failing but also do the same because he’s successful as well. It looks like motivated reasoning.

jadebox · 2nd March 2023, 08:26 PM

Tesla faces challenges as other car makers ramp up production of EVs. In addition to simply having more competition, Tesla will lose the money they made selling regulatory credits to the other car companies. The others won't need to buy the credits once they make more EVs. Selling those credits provided a big chunk of Tesla's revenue.

On the other hand, Telsa has invested in vertical integration so they may be able to produce their cars for less money and possibly even sell materials and parts to other manufacturers.

I also think that, in spite.or the talk of lower-priced models, Telsa will continue to sell their cars at a premium, betting that some people will be willing to pay more just because of the brand name.

The biggest threat, IMHO, to Tesla is their bravdo which is inspired by Musk. They are going to make a self-driving car without all the sensors that others are using even if ot kills them (or others). They are going to announce a stainless steel truck well before it is ready for market. They will use smoke and mirrors to demo products that are far from ready to demonstrate. And these things may come back to bite them.. Even the biggest Tesla fan is eventually going to get tired of unfulfilled promises.

angrysoba · 3rd March 2023, 12:48 AM

Yeah, the Cybertruck looks like it will be an epic fail. I cannot believe there is a big enough market for it.

I’m going to predict it turns out to be total garbage.

Of course, I could also be wrong.

Gulliver Foyle · 3rd March 2023, 04:57 AM

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Well for what its worth, some of the information is coming from Tesla itself.

From: MSN (originally canadian press)
Tesla says it will cut the cost of its next generation of vehicles in half, largely by using innovative manufacturing techniques and smaller factories....CEO Elon Musk and other executives outlined the goals during a 3 1/2-hour investor day presentation...The changes could bring the cost of a new generation of vehicles to around $25,000...

So, supposedly lots of plans, but no real details for the plan to bring in "cheap" EVs. (nothing about model numbers, or even whether these will be new models or just modifications or existing models.). And as you suggested, the experience with the Cybertruck should mean any plans from Tesla should be viewed with skepticism.

Musk said the same thing about the Model 3 back in the day. But when it came out it turned out to be an overpriced and underengineered mess, largely because Musk wanted to "revolutionise" car production by making the mistakes older manufacturers solved 60, 70 even 100 years ago.

If Tesla want to survive as anything other than a badge in the medium to long term, the company needs to drop Musk like the plague.

Gulliver Foyle · 3rd March 2023, 05:00 AM

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B

I think your apparent hatred of Elon Musk has severely clouded your view of reality. I was going to respond to your rant with a point-by-point refutation, but don’t care to waste my time.

Why do some people consider looking at the world based on the evidence to be hatred? Fanboys gushing over Musk doesn't make him any less of a con job.

arthwollipot · 5th March 2023, 07:59 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Yeah, the Cybertruck looks like it will be an epic fail. I cannot believe there is a big enough market for it.

I’m going to predict it turns out to be total garbage.

Of course, I could also be wrong.

Why are you talking in future tense?

Roger Ramjets · 5th March 2023, 09:15 PM

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle

Musk said the same thing about the Model 3 back in the day. But when it came out it turned out to be an overpriced and underengineered mess, largely because Musk wanted to "revolutionise" car production by making the mistakes older manufacturers solved 60, 70 even 100 years ago.

Sandy Munro - "...and this the kind of evolution we're hoping the other car companies are going to go to."

Giga Castings with Sandy | Evolution of Tesla Bodies

jeremyp · 6th March 2023, 12:29 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

This seems like moving the goalposts and a heads I win, tails you lose gambit as well.

First we are attacking Musk because his stupid company is failing, but then when it is not failing it is bad because of the planet.

This is the same type of criticism as “They are too expensive!” Followed by “Drop the price and you’re an *******!”

Listen, my bias is against Musk. I will state that clearly. But I couldn’t make these types of arguments with a straight face.

We can’t wag our fingers because he’s failing but also do the same because he’s successful as well. It looks like motivated reasoning.

I only mentioned it because the Tesla fanboys think they are saving the planet by buying a Tesla. They are not. It’s also totally unrealistic to think they’ll ever be twice the size of Toyota. It’s just fantasy.

jeremyp · 6th March 2023, 12:32 AM

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

Why are you talking in future tense?

Because nobody outside Tesla knows how good the Cybertruck is.

I’m pretty sure it will be a commercial failure too, but i could be proved wrong.

Fast Eddie B · 6th March 2023, 06:16 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

I only mentioned it because the Tesla fanboys think they are saving the planet by buying a Tesla.

Straw Man.

But every little bit helps.

ZirconBlue · 6th March 2023, 07:58 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyp

I only mentioned it because the Tesla fanboys think they are saving the planet by buying a Tesla.

Here in Kentucky, one can get an optional "Friends of Coal" license plate. That's ridiculous enough, but seeing one such plate on a Tesla the other day really threw me for a loop.

SteveAitch · 6th March 2023, 10:49 AM

"A Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac"?

ZirconBlue · 6th March 2023, 11:01 AM

Originally Posted by SteveAitch

"A Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac"?

Indeed. Related: I snapped a photo of Cadillac with a Grateful Dead sticker on it a few years ago.

FatherLukeduke · 6th March 2023, 11:39 AM

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B

Straw Man.

But every little bit helps.

How about not buying a car and using public transport?

Aridas · 6th March 2023, 11:51 AM

Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke

How about not buying a car and using public transport?

Frequently not a viable option in the US in the first place.

jeremyp · 7th March 2023, 12:29 AM

More price cuts announced.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64867287

dudalb · 7th March 2023, 05:24 PM

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B

I think your apparent hatred of Elon Musk has severely clouded your view of reality. I was going to respond to your rant with a point-by-point refutation, but don’t care to waste my time.

Fair enough.
But the hate balances that a few people here still are supporters of Musk and don't see how far he has gone off the rails.

arthwollipot · 7th March 2023, 05:25 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Fair enough.
But the hate balances that a few people here still see this nutcase as "A Real Life Tony Stark".

Examples? Quote some posts maybe? That wouldn't be against the rules.

Trebuchet · 7th March 2023, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by ZirconBlue

Here in Kentucky, one can get an optional "Friends of Coal" license plate. That's ridiculous enough, but seeing one such plate on a Tesla the other day really threw me for a loop.

Think about that for a moment. Conventional cars burn gasoline or diesel, not coal. They don't help the coal industry.
Teslas run on electricity. Which for much of the USA, is produced by burning coal.
Teslas are better for the coal industry than gas or diesel cars.

dudalb · 7th March 2023, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

GM and Ford are both hollow shells. Ditto the rest of the beasts.

I have been hearing that for around 50 years now.....

dudalb · 7th March 2023, 05:33 PM

Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke

How about not buying a car and using public transport?

Because outside a few major cities, PT in the US sucks.
And I don't know if you could ever have a ecnomical PT system for parts of the US because the distances are so great.

arthwollipot · 7th March 2023, 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Because outside a few major cities, PT in the US sucks.
And I don't know if you could ever have a ecnomical PT system for parts of the US because the distances are so great.

Try Australia on for size.

Public transport is most places sucks, because cities were designed to accommodate cars, not buses and trains. A few places are starting to recognise the need, but a lot more work needs to be done.

2nd March 2023, 07:56 AM	#170
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 20,313	Originally Posted by wareyin Quote: Rumours have it that Musk will announce a cheap Tesla, nicknamed Tesla Model 2 in social media, in March. It will be a small crossover SUV with price around $25k. Anyone putting a lot of stock into rumors about new Tesla models going into production should pay a lot of attention to how many Cybertrucks are on the road right now. Are these even rumors from Tesla insiders, or is this just what some guy in the pub is saying? Well for what its worth, some of the information is coming from Tesla itself. From: MSN (originally canadian press) Tesla says it will cut the cost of its next generation of vehicles in half, largely by using innovative manufacturing techniques and smaller factories....CEO Elon Musk and other executives outlined the goals during a 3 1/2-hour investor day presentation...The changes could bring the cost of a new generation of vehicles to around $25,000... So, supposedly lots of plans, but no real details for the plan to bring in "cheap" EVs. (nothing about model numbers, or even whether these will be new models or just modifications or existing models.). And as you suggested, the experience with the Cybertruck should mean any plans from Tesla should be viewed with skepticism.
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot Last edited by Segnosaur; 2nd March 2023 at 08:03 AM.

2nd March 2023, 09:25 AM	#171
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by Segnosaur Well for what its worth, some of the information is coming from Tesla itself. From: MSN (originally canadian press) Tesla says it will cut the cost of its next generation of vehicles in half, largely by using innovative manufacturing techniques and smaller factories....CEO Elon Musk and other executives outlined the goals during a 3 1/2-hour investor day presentation...The changes could bring the cost of a new generation of vehicles to around $25,000... So, supposedly lots of plans, but no real details for the plan to bring in "cheap" EVs. (nothing about model numbers, or even whether these will be new models or just modifications or existing models.). And as you suggested, the experience with the Cybertruck should mean any plans from Tesla should be viewed with skepticism. Here's a more balanced take on the investor day https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/03...ails-are-scant They claim that they will be producing 20 million cars a year in 2030. That's twice as many as Toyota is selling now. It's also pretty depressing because we need to be making fewer cars, not more. Also their claims about halving the cost is clearly marketing ********. They'll halve the cost in much the same way as they'll have self driving taxis in 2019. ETA: there was no news of any new models, no news of facelifts for the 3 or the Y and no news of the Cybertruck going into production.
	Last edited by jeremyp; 2nd March 2023 at 09:47 AM.

2nd March 2023, 09:54 AM	#172
Trebuchet Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Port Townsend, Washington Posts: 37,744	Musk buying GM is more likely than GM buying Tesla, I think. But still not likely at all.
	__________________ Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.

2nd March 2023, 12:17 PM	#174
Bogative Master Poster Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 2,524	Originally Posted by Ryokan Yes, Volkswagen sold more electric cars than Tesla, 350k against Tesla's 232k. They have more models on sale, and they are a well known and trusted brand in Europe. That may only be because of a supply issue. With Tesla's Berlin plant coming online and rapidly increasing its production rates, they may surpass VW in short order. Quote: March 2022: first customer deliveries June 18,2022: production rate of 1,000 Tesla Model Y per week October 1,2022: production rate of 2,000 Tesla Model Y per week December 18,2022: production rate of 3,000 Tesla Model Y per week February 27,2023: production rate of 4,000 Tesla Model Y per week Time will tell whether the Tesla Giga Berlin will exceed 5,000 units per week or even reach 10,000 per week (roughly 500,000 per year), which is the planned maximum capacity for the site according to Reuters. https://insideevs.com/news/654658/te...4000cars-week/
Bogative Master Poster Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 2,524	__________________ "We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics.” – Joe Biden October 24, 2020

2nd March 2023, 12:34 PM	#176
Shalamar Dark Lord of the JREF Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Somewhere Else Posts: 5,770	There has been some lament among Tesla owners about the Tesla Supercharger network to non Teslas, which has just started in the USA. Teslas are popular EVs, and several Superchargers are already very crowded, and this will make it worse. It's good for EV adoption though. .The supercharger network is robust, and well maintained. Fortunately, about 95% of my charging is done at home.
	__________________ "The truth is out there. But the lies are inside your head."

2nd March 2023, 12:11 AM	#161
Gulliver Foyle Master Poster Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Cork baaaiii Posts: 2,503	Originally Posted by Brainster Wishing it was so doesn't make it so. Tesla seems to be doing spectacularly; they made $12.5 billion last year. Revenues were up over 50%, which is amazing for a company of that size. I look at the financials of many companies and Tesla's are outstandingly strong; about the only criticism I'd offer is that they have too much cash on hand. They should deploy it or return it to the shareholders as dividends. For all their talk Tesla has never broken into the big leagues in terms of vehicles sold. And now that the traditional manufacturers are getting serious you are seeing electric vehicles being sold which don't fall apart if you look at them wrong and which bear some passing resemblence to advertised performance levels that's only going to get worse. Tesla has never managed to break into the European market properly, and that's where it's going to die.

2nd March 2023, 12:13 AM	#162
Gulliver Foyle Master Poster Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Cork baaaiii Posts: 2,503	Originally Posted by Ryokan Rumours have it that Musk will announce a cheap Tesla, nicknamed Tesla Model 2 in social media, in March. It will be a small crossover SUV with price around $25k. It's rumoured it will be in production already this year, which in Tesla speak probably means 2024 or 2025. I suspect Tesla stock will rise if this rumour holds true. The model 3 is their cheap car. I won't hold my breath on that grifter delivering on a promise.

2nd March 2023, 12:21 AM	#163
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by Brainster Lots of assertions in there; no links, no backup, no analysis. You hate Musk and therefore his company is doomed. I'm actually not a big fan, but I can read financial statements. This is a very healthy company still in its rapid growth phase. The P/E is currently down to around 50. This is anecdotal, but I see the cars everywhere; maybe it's just that they are so distinctive looking with that Porsche 911 hood (and almost white). Tesla’s last new model released was when? The Cybertruck and Tesla semi were announced when?

2nd March 2023, 01:00 AM	#164
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 37,011	Originally Posted by jeremyp Tesla’s last new model released was when? The Cybertruck and Tesla semi were announced when? The Model Y was released in 2019 but it's really just a Model 3 on stilts. I agree with those who are skeptical about Tesla's very long term future. IMO they're not going to go to the wall and I doubt whether they'll ever be taken over by a competitor thanks to their inflated share price. I reckon that their future is to be like BMW, an independent, profitable, comparatively niche, manufacturer of aspirational vehicles. Far eastern manufacturers are showing that they are adept at making comparatively affordable EVs and so I don't see Tesla being able to expand to 5-10 million vehicles a year. 2-3 million a year is a definite possibility IMO which would put them in the BMW volume range. The cheapest Tesla available in the UK is the Model 3 at £42k+. By contrast the recently launched MG SUV is £30k, a big saving.

2nd March 2023, 04:23 AM	#165
Ryokan Insert something funny here Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Norway Posts: 10,805	Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle Tesla has never managed to break into the European market properly, and that's where it's going to die. Having the most sold and the second most sold EV i Europe in 2022 doesn't count as properly breaking into the European market? Yes, Volkswagen sold more electric cars than Tesla, 350k against Tesla's 232k. They have more models on sale, and they are a well known and trusted brand in Europe. So if you look at total electric cars sold, Tesla is #2 in Europe behind Volkswagen. And that's just 10 years after the first Tesla Model S was released. I don't know how anyone can look at those numbers and say, "yeah, this company is failing." What other car manufacturer can point to that kind of success in that amount of time? https://www.statista.com/statistics/...models-europe/ https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/lat...est-selling-ev

2nd March 2023, 04:28 AM	#166
Ryokan Insert something funny here Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Norway Posts: 10,805	Originally Posted by The Don The cheapest Tesla available in the UK is the Model 3 at £42k+. By contrast the recently launched MG SUV is £30k, a big saving. 370km range vs Tesla Model Y's 533km. And that's even with a bigger battery than the Tesla.

2nd March 2023, 04:50 AM	#167
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 37,011	Originally Posted by Ryokan 370km range vs Tesla Model Y's 533km. And that's even with a bigger battery than the Tesla. True, but for most people almost all of the time an affordable car with a shorter range trumps a more expensive car with a longer range. There's little doubt that Tesla provides the most efficient £45k EV out there, it's just that the market for £45k vehicles in the UK is somewhat niche. The "winner" in the UK's market IMO is the manufacturer who is able to provide a useful, usable, vehicle for £20k-£30k.

2nd March 2023, 05:13 AM	#168
Ryokan Insert something funny here Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Norway Posts: 10,805	As in the rest of Europe, the most sold electric cars in the UK last year were the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla Model 3. They outsold their competitors by an extremely large margin. Further down the list you find a lot of cheaper alternatives. Yet, they didn't sell as much. https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/the-u...-cars-of-2022/

2nd March 2023, 06:31 AM	#169
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 37,011	Originally Posted by Ryokan As in the rest of Europe, the most sold electric cars in the UK last year were the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla Model 3. They outsold their competitors by an extremely large margin. Further down the list you find a lot of cheaper alternatives. Yet, they didn't sell as much. https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/the-u...-cars-of-2022/ Yes, and I think that's what I'd expect at this stage of the market - or at least in the UK's stage of the market. At the moment, people who buy EVs tend to be well-heeled early adopters. The cost of a new Tesla (or indeed any new or comparatively new used EV) is well beyond the means of the vast majority of people. The people who buy Teslas are doing so as an alternative to a BWM, Audi or Mercedes rather than as an alternative to a Dacia, Vauxhall or Skoda. The latter people (and I include myself in that number ) are unwilling or unable to find £40k+ for their next vehicle and instead are looking for something sub-£30k (or in my case something used sub £15k). Unless Tesla manage to produce the Model 2 and make it available for sale for £20k-£25k then Tesla isn't going to reach this large part of the market. That said, it's not been a major hindrance for BMW to become a profitable company, I doubt whether it'll be a major problem for Tesla either.

2nd March 2023, 11:45 AM	#173
Fast Eddie B Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Lenoir City, TN/Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 7,678	Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle For all their talk Tesla has never broken into the big leagues in terms of vehicles sold. And now that the traditional manufacturers are getting serious you are seeing electric vehicles being sold which don't fall apart if you look at them wrong and which bear some passing resemblence to advertised performance levels that's only going to get worse. Tesla has never managed to break into the European market properly, and that's where it's going to die. I think your apparent hatred of Elon Musk has severely clouded your view of reality. I was going to respond to your rant with a point-by-point refutation, but don’t care to waste my time.

2nd March 2023, 12:30 PM	#175
Fast Eddie B Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Lenoir City, TN/Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 7,678	Deleted duplicate.

2nd March 2023, 01:00 PM	#177
Ryokan Insert something funny here Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Norway Posts: 10,805	Tesla superchargers in Europe have been open to everyone for some time now. The doom and gloom predicted by some never came to be.

2nd March 2023, 02:42 PM	#178
ZirconBlue Sole Survivor of L-Town Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Lexington, KY, USA, Earth Posts: 14,979	Originally Posted by Ryokan As in the rest of Europe, the most sold electric cars in the UK last year were the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla Model 3. They outsold their competitors by an extremely large margin. Further down the list you find a lot of cheaper alternatives. Yet, they didn't sell as much. https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/the-u...-cars-of-2022/ Sounds like Tesla may find itself in an Apple vs. Android situation. iPhones may be the most popular single phone, but Android dominates the total market with lots of different manufacturers.
	__________________ Religion and sex are powerplays. Manipulate the people for the money they pay. Selling skin, selling God The numbers look the same on their credit cards.

2nd March 2023, 06:42 PM	#179
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 34,960	Originally Posted by jeremyp They claim that they will be producing 20 million cars a year in 2030. That's twice as many as Toyota is selling now. It's also pretty depressing because we need to be making fewer cars, not more. . This seems like moving the goalposts and a heads I win, tails you lose gambit as well. First we are attacking Musk because his stupid company is failing, but then when it is not failing it is bad because of the planet. This is the same type of criticism as “They are too expensive!” Followed by “Drop the price and you’re an *******!” Listen, my bias is against Musk. I will state that clearly. But I couldn’t make these types of arguments with a straight face. We can’t wag our fingers because he’s failing but also do the same because he’s successful as well. It looks like motivated reasoning.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

2nd March 2023, 08:26 PM	#180
jadebox Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: USA Posts: 2,714	Tesla faces challenges as other car makers ramp up production of EVs. In addition to simply having more competition, Tesla will lose the money they made selling regulatory credits to the other car companies. The others won't need to buy the credits once they make more EVs. Selling those credits provided a big chunk of Tesla's revenue. On the other hand, Telsa has invested in vertical integration so they may be able to produce their cars for less money and possibly even sell materials and parts to other manufacturers. I also think that, in spite.or the talk of lower-priced models, Telsa will continue to sell their cars at a premium, betting that some people will be willing to pay more just because of the brand name. The biggest threat, IMHO, to Tesla is their bravdo which is inspired by Musk. They are going to make a self-driving car without all the sensors that others are using even if ot kills them (or others). They are going to announce a stainless steel truck well before it is ready for market. They will use smoke and mirrors to demo products that are far from ready to demonstrate. And these things may come back to bite them.. Even the biggest Tesla fan is eventually going to get tired of unfulfilled promises.

3rd March 2023, 12:48 AM	#181
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 34,960	Yeah, the Cybertruck looks like it will be an epic fail. I cannot believe there is a big enough market for it. I’m going to predict it turns out to be total garbage. Of course, I could also be wrong.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

3rd March 2023, 04:57 AM	#182
Gulliver Foyle Master Poster Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Cork baaaiii Posts: 2,503	Originally Posted by Segnosaur Well for what its worth, some of the information is coming from Tesla itself. From: MSN (originally canadian press) Tesla says it will cut the cost of its next generation of vehicles in half, largely by using innovative manufacturing techniques and smaller factories....CEO Elon Musk and other executives outlined the goals during a 3 1/2-hour investor day presentation...The changes could bring the cost of a new generation of vehicles to around $25,000... So, supposedly lots of plans, but no real details for the plan to bring in "cheap" EVs. (nothing about model numbers, or even whether these will be new models or just modifications or existing models.). And as you suggested, the experience with the Cybertruck should mean any plans from Tesla should be viewed with skepticism. Musk said the same thing about the Model 3 back in the day. But when it came out it turned out to be an overpriced and underengineered mess, largely because Musk wanted to "revolutionise" car production by making the mistakes older manufacturers solved 60, 70 even 100 years ago. If Tesla want to survive as anything other than a badge in the medium to long term, the company needs to drop Musk like the plague.

3rd March 2023, 05:00 AM	#183
Gulliver Foyle Master Poster Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Cork baaaiii Posts: 2,503	Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B I think your apparent hatred of Elon Musk has severely clouded your view of reality. I was going to respond to your rant with a point-by-point refutation, but don’t care to waste my time. Why do some people consider looking at the world based on the evidence to be hatred? Fanboys gushing over Musk doesn't make him any less of a con job.

5th March 2023, 07:59 PM	#184
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 84,591	Originally Posted by angrysoba Yeah, the Cybertruck looks like it will be an epic fail. I cannot believe there is a big enough market for it. I’m going to predict it turns out to be total garbage. Of course, I could also be wrong. Why are you talking in future tense?
	__________________ A million people can call the mountains a fiction Yet it need not trouble you as you stand atop them https://xkcd.com/154/

5th March 2023, 09:15 PM	#185
Roger Ramjets Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 6,652	Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle Musk said the same thing about the Model 3 back in the day. But when it came out it turned out to be an overpriced and underengineered mess, largely because Musk wanted to "revolutionise" car production by making the mistakes older manufacturers solved 60, 70 even 100 years ago. Sandy Munro - "...and this the kind of evolution we're hoping the other car companies are going to go to." Giga Castings with Sandy \| Evolution of Tesla Bodies
	__________________ We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good.

6th March 2023, 12:29 AM	#186
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by angrysoba This seems like moving the goalposts and a heads I win, tails you lose gambit as well. First we are attacking Musk because his stupid company is failing, but then when it is not failing it is bad because of the planet. This is the same type of criticism as “They are too expensive!” Followed by “Drop the price and you’re an *******!” Listen, my bias is against Musk. I will state that clearly. But I couldn’t make these types of arguments with a straight face. We can’t wag our fingers because he’s failing but also do the same because he’s successful as well. It looks like motivated reasoning. I only mentioned it because the Tesla fanboys think they are saving the planet by buying a Tesla. They are not. It’s also totally unrealistic to think they’ll ever be twice the size of Toyota. It’s just fantasy.

6th March 2023, 12:32 AM	#187
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	Originally Posted by arthwollipot Why are you talking in future tense? Because nobody outside Tesla knows how good the Cybertruck is. I’m pretty sure it will be a commercial failure too, but i could be proved wrong.
	Last edited by jeremyp; 6th March 2023 at 12:33 AM.

6th March 2023, 06:16 AM	#188
Fast Eddie B Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Lenoir City, TN/Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 7,678	Originally Posted by jeremyp I only mentioned it because the Tesla fanboys think they are saving the planet by buying a Tesla. Straw Man. But every little bit helps.

6th March 2023, 07:58 AM	#189
ZirconBlue Sole Survivor of L-Town Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Lexington, KY, USA, Earth Posts: 14,979	Originally Posted by jeremyp I only mentioned it because the Tesla fanboys think they are saving the planet by buying a Tesla. Here in Kentucky, one can get an optional "Friends of Coal" license plate. That's ridiculous enough, but seeing one such plate on a Tesla the other day really threw me for a loop.
	__________________ Religion and sex are powerplays. Manipulate the people for the money they pay. Selling skin, selling God The numbers look the same on their credit cards.

6th March 2023, 10:49 AM	#190
SteveAitch Muse Join Date: Apr 2020 Location: St Aines Posts: 980	"A Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac"?
	__________________ If this board is too exciting for you, try my Flickr pages. Warning: may cause narcolepsy! Some people call me 'strange'. I prefer 'unconventional'. But I'm willing to compromise and accept 'eccentric'...

6th March 2023, 11:01 AM	#191
ZirconBlue Sole Survivor of L-Town Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Lexington, KY, USA, Earth Posts: 14,979	Originally Posted by SteveAitch "A Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac"? Indeed. Related: I snapped a photo of Cadillac with a Grateful Dead sticker on it a few years ago.
	__________________ Religion and sex are powerplays. Manipulate the people for the money they pay. Selling skin, selling God The numbers look the same on their credit cards.

6th March 2023, 11:39 AM	#192
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 168	Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B Straw Man. But every little bit helps. How about not buying a car and using public transport?
FatherLukeduke Thinker Join Date: Sep 2021 Posts: 168

6th March 2023, 11:51 AM	#193
Aridas Crazy Little Green Dragon Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: East Coast, US Posts: 10,276	Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke How about not buying a car and using public transport? Frequently not a viable option in the US in the first place.
	__________________ So sayeth the crazy little dragon.

7th March 2023, 12:29 AM	#194
jeremyp Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha Posts: 3,524	More price cuts announced. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64867287

7th March 2023, 05:24 PM	#195
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 59,465	Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B I think your apparent hatred of Elon Musk has severely clouded your view of reality. I was going to respond to your rant with a point-by-point refutation, but don’t care to waste my time. Fair enough. But the hate balances that a few people here still are supporters of Musk and don't see how far he has gone off the rails.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. Last edited by dudalb; 7th March 2023 at 05:26 PM.