The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

[a_unique_person]

I am amazed that amongst all this destruction and carnage the mobile phone systems are kept operating.

[Andy_Ross]

1000 Ukrainian Marines returning home after intense training in amphibious landings from the British Royal Marines.

They were also trained in the use of Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapons (NLAW) and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles - as well as the use of mortars and drones for reconnaissance, and explosive demolition of obstacles such as Dragon's Teeth anti-vehicle fortifications.

That makes over 20,000 front line troops that have been trained in the UK

https://news.sky.com/story/nearly-1-...andos-12937627

[Drewbot]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

I am amazed that amongst all this destruction and carnage the mobile phone systems are kept operating.

Starlink in play I think.

[kookbreaker]

Russia has sentenced the author of the Metro: 2033 books (which became a video game series) to eight years for speaking against the war and Putin.

Thing is, he hasn’t been in Russia for years.

https://www.pcgamer.com/metro-2033-a...on-of-ukraine/

[Oystein]

And so, once again, Germany (as well as the USA) is denying Ukraine the quick delivery of a weapon that Ukraine could very well need to gain initiative: The Taurus air-to-surface cruise missile, which has a range larger than the Storm Shadow at >500 km (no one say how much more than 500 m), and again the excuse is that it could be used to hit targets within Russia proper and thereby risk "escalation".

But.
Unless Scholz and Biden secretly mean "Crimea" when they say "Russia proper"
There is an obvious, I think, problem with this argument:
Free Ukraine has a very long border with Russia proper - Kharkiv, Sumi, Chernihiv oblasts all touch Russia immediately (and Russia is striking into those oblasts from the other side with impunity). A foot soldier could walk up to the border and throw a handgrenade into Russia proper - literally. Or shoot his rifle East and North.

So why are handguns and hand grenades not banned, Panzerhaubitze 2000 are ok (can shoot 50 km deep into Russia), but cruise missiles are?

Russia will not escalate just because they are hit in their rear. Retaliate maybe, but not significantly escalate. Escalation is done in response to a significant change of the strategic situation, not to a new operational option on the enemy's side: Either when you think you are beginning to lose the war, or when you see a chance opening up to reach victory.

So, saying you don't want Russia to escalate equates to not wanting Russia to lose. Which equates to wanting Ukraine to lose.

[Andy_Ross]

Blah blah

[steenkh]

Originally Posted by Andy_Ross

Blah blah

Thanks for sparing us the long version of your reply.

[Andy_Ross]

Two Ukrainian missiles have targeted a bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula, Moscow says.

Videos on social media show plumes of smoke rising near Kerch bridge.

Russia's foreign ministry said that "such barbaric actions... will not go unanswered".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66484640

[Andy_Ross]

From other reports it seems that more than two missiles were involved. There are pictures and reports from locals of up to 8 or 9 explosions and large palls of smoke over the bridge..

[Mike!]

Originally Posted by Andy_Ross

Two Ukrainian missiles have targeted a bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula, Moscow says.

Videos on social media show plumes of smoke rising near Kerch bridge.

Russia's foreign ministry said that "such barbaric actions... will not go unanswered".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66484640

Two Ukrainian missiles: Knock knock.

Russia's foreign ministry: Whooz dare?

Two Ukrainian missiles: Kah.

Russia's foreign ministry: Kah? Kah who?

Two Ukrainian missiles: Kah-BOOM!

Russia's foreign ministry: Dat not funny!

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Andy_Ross

Two Ukrainian missiles have targeted a bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula, Moscow says.

Videos on social media show plumes of smoke rising near Kerch bridge.

Russia's foreign ministry said that "such barbaric actions... will not go unanswered".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66484640

Maybe, depends on if they can find any maternity wards or daycares left standing.

Why have we not cut diplomatic relations with these ***** yet??

[lobosrul5]

https://t.me/pilotblog/5953

Video of Russian tourists on a beach with strikes on the kerch Bridge behind them. Imagine choosing to vacation in a war zone. Idiots!
Telegram is the only place I've seen it.

[Mike!]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

https://t.me/pilotblog/5953

Video of Russian tourists on a beach with strikes on the kerch Bridge behind them. Imagine choosing to vacation in a war zone. Idiots!
Telegram is the only place I've seen it.

Looks like 4 unique plumes of smoke spread a good distance apart, one on the superstructure, and three more following left to right. Hope the damage is significant.

[Myriad]

Russia is saying it downed the missiles. Apparently by throwing a bridge at them.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Maybe, depends on if they can find any maternity wards or daycares left standing.

Why have we not cut diplomatic relations with these ***** yet??

Diplomatic isolation of a nuclear power is probably counter productive.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Myriad

Russia is saying it downed the missiles. Apparently by throwing a bridge at them.

To be fair, as they were ballistic missiles, they probably were S200 so not too accurate and quite likely to miss. Do there is a chance that it didn't achieve anything directly. But still threatens the bridge.

This is what ATACMS should be available for.

[Andy_Ross]

Russia seems to be loosing it's grip

Russia wants to gain control over Central Asian exports to China. But that won’t be easy.

Quote:

Turkmenistan refused to pump Russian gas to China.Turkmenistan on Saturday warned Russia against trying to expand its influence over the natural gas supply chain between Central Asia and China, after Moscow said other countries could join its “gas union”with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are already supplying China with gas together through a pipeline built by the state-owned Turkmengaz and China's CNPC.

Quote:

“There are no sources of gas from other countries to fill the pipeline, and the existing scheme for distributing gas volumes supplied to China does not include plans to expand the number of participants in the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline project,” Turkmenistan’s Deputy Chairman of Turkmengas, Myrad Archaev said.

https://twitter.com/yasminalombaert/...ihEkCJ34w&s=19

[a_unique_person]

Putin used to keep leaders of other states waiting to assert his dominance. No more.

[Andy_Ross]

They know his army has been destroyed and there's not much risk of an attack.

[Andy_Ross]

Russian warship fires warning shots at cargo ship in Black Sea
Action marks first time Russia has fired on merchant shipping beyond Ukraine since exiting grain deal

Quote:

On Sunday, Russia said its Vasily Bykov patrol ship had fired automatic weapons on the Palau-flagged Sukru Okan vessel after the ship’s captain failed to respond to a request to halt for an inspection.

Russia said the vessel was making its way toward the Ukrainian port of Izmail. Refinitiv shipping data showed that the ship was currently near the coast of Bulgaria and heading toward the Romanian port of Sulina.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...p-in-black-sea

[Andy_Ross]

What Ukraine needs are a few good old fashioned Q Ships.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Andy_Ross

What Ukraine needs are a few good old fashioned Q Ships.

That does have a bit of a history of making the other side decide to shoot first and ask questions later.

[Andy_Ross]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

That does have a bit of a history of making the other side decide to shoot first and ask questions later.

Good, that gives all the local navies an excuse to sink Russian warships on sight

[Andy_Ross]

Ruble slides to 100 to a dollar, lowest for 16 months

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Andy_Ross

Ruble slides to 100 to a dollar, lowest for 16 months

The Russian central bank did some sort of intervention and got it back down to 97.

But the longer term trend looks pretty bad for them. Give it a few days and it'll get back up above 100 again.

I wonder if they (the "west") have any potential new sanctions up their sleeves. This would be a good chance to give the Russian economy a kick while they are down, take advantage of some jitters and loss of confidence and really kick off a collapse.

(I don't think anything so dramatic will happen, but it is nice to daydream. At least we are in for a slow steady decline of Russian fortunes and some more pain to Russian consumers such that there might be a bit of pushback against their leadership.)

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by crescent

The Russian central bank did some sort of intervention and got it back down to 97.

But the longer term trend looks pretty bad for them. Give it a few days and it'll get back up above 100 again.

I wonder if they (the "west") have any potential new sanctions up their sleeves. This would be a good chance to give the Russian economy a kick while they are down, take advantage of some jitters and loss of confidence and really kick off a collapse.

(I don't think anything so dramatic will happen, but it is nice to daydream. At least we are in for a slow steady decline of Russian fortunes and some more pain to Russian consumers such that there might be a bit of pushback against their leadership.)

Spending some gold or foreign reserve currency? I cannot imagine what else it would be other than cooking the books.

[Gulliver Foyle]

Originally Posted by crescent

The Russian central bank did some sort of intervention and got it back down to 97.

But the longer term trend looks pretty bad for them. Give it a few days and it'll get back up above 100 again.

I wonder if they (the "west") have any potential new sanctions up their sleeves. This would be a good chance to give the Russian economy a kick while they are down, take advantage of some jitters and loss of confidence and really kick off a collapse.

(I don't think anything so dramatic will happen, but it is nice to daydream. At least we are in for a slow steady decline of Russian fortunes and some more pain to Russian consumers such that there might be a bit of pushback against their leadership.)

They could start sanctioning third countries like Georgia and Armenia who are allowing Russian dummy corporations set up to buy western tech to operate out of their cities. And also warn the likesof Turkey & Israel that useful arms will be less forthcoming unless they stop trying to play both sides.

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Originally Posted by crescent

The Russian central bank did some sort of intervention and got it back down to 97.

But the longer term trend looks pretty bad for them. Give it a few days and it'll get back up above 100 again.

I wonder if they (the "west") have any potential new sanctions up their sleeves. This would be a good chance to give the Russian economy a kick while they are down, take advantage of some jitters and loss of confidence and really kick off a collapse.

(I don't think anything so dramatic will happen, but it is nice to daydream. At least we are in for a slow steady decline of Russian fortunes and some more pain to Russian consumers such that there might be a bit of pushback against their leadership.)

A bit of an analysis /speculation on the fate of the ruble:

Russian ruble is now worth less than a penny, infuriating Vladimir Putin’s inner circle: ‘They’re laughing at us’

I'd say Nabiullina has run out of options.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Spending some gold or foreign reserve currency? I cannot imagine what else it would be other than cooking the books.

What does cooking the books even mean, between nation-states and their fiat currencies?

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Originally Posted by theprestige

What does cooking the books even mean, between nation-states and their fiat currencies?

Misreporting?

[Andy_Ross]

Romania confirms that it will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis:
"We will participate in the training of the Ukrainian military within the framework of EU military assistance. We will host the future regional training center for F-16 pilots, which will equally serve Romanian, allied and Ukrainian pilots."

[jimbob]

CNN has shown footage released by the Ukrainian SBU of a USV attack on the Kerch bridge, including footage from the Russian CCTV cameras on the bridge of the actual explosion.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

That should slow down travel with the consequent increase in paranoia

[theprestige]

Kerch bridge on fire, your defense is terrified.

[MarkCorrigan]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Kerch bridge on fire, your defense is terrified.

That is genius.

God that brings back memories.

[crescent]

The Killers decried for inviting Russian fan on stage at Georgia concert

Quote:

The Killers, an alternative rock bank from the United States, has come under fire for inviting a Russian fan on stage during a performance in Georgia.

On Tuesday at the Black Sea Arena in Georgia’s port city of Batumi, lead singer Brandon Flowers asked the audience: “We don’t know the etiquette of this land, but this guy’s a Russian. You OK with a Russian coming up here?”

Perhaps he should have waited for the crowd's answer.

They issued an "apology" but it was one of those mealy-mouthed "We didn't mean to offend" kind, not an actual "we did a wrong thing" sort of statement.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

https://t.me/pilotblog/5953

Video of Russian tourists on a beach with strikes on the kerch Bridge behind them. Imagine choosing to vacation in a war zone. Idiots!
Telegram is the only place I've seen it.

And they must have Known it was a possible war zone.
It is not like the late great Anthony Boudain was shooting his "Parts Unknown" TV show about the food of Lebanon, and then Lebanon unepectdly blew up and he had to be evacuated.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

A bit of an analysis /speculation on the fate of the ruble:

Russian ruble is now worth less than a penny, infuriating Vladimir Putin’s inner circle: ‘They’re laughing at us’

I'd say Nabiullina has run out of options.

Next thing you will have take a wagon role of rubles to the grocery store, a la Germany in the early 1920's.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by jimbob

CNN has shown footage released by the Ukrainian SBU of a USV attack on the Kerch bridge, including footage from the Russian CCTV cameras on the bridge of the actual explosion.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

That should slow down travel with the consequent increase in paranoia

Not just paranoia, the risks are real.

When Ukraine attacked the Kerch bridge on July 17, two civilians died, and their child was injured.

Quote:

A war crime is a violation of the laws of war that gives rise to individual criminal responsibility for actions by combatants in action, such as intentionally killing civilians

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crime).

RT is now reporting:

Quote:

Ukraine shells Donetsk with cluster munitions again (PHOTOS).
Civilians were killed and injured by US-supplied ordnance, authorities say

(https://www.rt.com/russia/581372-don...ilians-killed/).

RT has also recently published a report about an intelligent analysis of this conflict (and its possible solution) made by former president of France Nicolas Sarkozy:

Quote:

France’s Sarkozy urges West to get real on Crimea
Europe and Russia need each other, the former French president has said

(https://www.rt.com/news/581378-sarkozy-crimea-get-real/).

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Not just paranoia, the risks are real.

When Ukraine attacked the Kerch bridge on July 17, two civilians died, and their child was injured.


(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crime).

RT is now reporting:

(https://www.rt.com/russia/581372-don...ilians-killed/).

RT has also recently published a report about an intelligent analysis of this conflict (and its possible solution) made by former president of France Nicolas Sarkozy:

(https://www.rt.com/news/581378-sarkozy-crimea-get-real/).

Well, looky who is back; and still has not learned that citing RT as a source is a sure fire way of getting a credibilty rating of Zero.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Well, looky who is back; and still has not learned that citing RT as a source is a sure fire way of getting a credibilty rating of Zero.

No, I don't think so (congratulations though for using the useful concept of "credibility rating").

I believe quoting RT from time to time helps make this thread more balanced.

Their information can frequently be verified by using other sources.