Continuation The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

If you say so

I did say so. The potential that Putin would've seen how easy we let him have Ukraine and demanded more is very real though not a certainty.

ETA: the more I think about it, we're in ******* opposite land. Ukraine shouldn't be kissing our feet for a handful of good western equipment and a boatload of surplus, we should be kissing their feet for fighting Russia.

[Jack by the hedge]

Do these cluster shells have a significantly worse rate of duds compared to the conventional HE shells?

Might be worth noting again these cluster shells are not designed to scatter mines as booby traps, they scatter bomblets which are intended to explode immediately, but some fail to go off.

I'm not disputing TGs point about the lies-to-children style of reassuring people that every shell's fall will be solemnly recorded. That's surely baloney. But each Ukrainian field in the war zone will contain a mix of both sides ordnance, some percentage of which will be unexploded. It may be of some value to know whether or not US cluster bomblets are likely to be in the mix but it's surely going to be rare that that's the only thing to worry about.

[ginjawarrior]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

If you say so

Just where have you had your head buried last year and a half?

[ginjawarrior]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I did say so. The potential that Putin would've seen how easy we let him have Ukraine and demanded more is very real though not a certainty.

ETA: the more I think about it, we're in ******* opposite land. Ukraine shouldn't be kissing our feet for a handful of good western equipment and a boatload of surplus, we should be kissing their feet for fighting Russia.

If Corbyn and trump been in power last Feb then 100% I think NATO would have crumbled after turning their back on helping Ukraine

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I did say so. The potential that Putin would've seen how easy we let him have Ukraine and demanded more is very real though not a certainty.

ETA: the more I think about it, we're in ******* opposite land. Ukraine shouldn't be kissing our feet for a handful of good western equipment and a boatload of surplus, we should be kissing their feet for fighting Russia.

That's the age old proxy-benefactor arrangement though, isn't it? The benefactor provides the guns and the proxy provides the blood. Seems a bad deal, but I suppose it beats the alternative.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by ginjawarrior

If Corbyn and trump been in power last Feb then 100% I think NATO would have crumbled after turning their back on helping Ukraine

Yeah, we'd very likely be talking about the last stand holdout by the Poles in Warsaw right now. ETA: or no, I forget my geography, much further west.

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Do these cluster shells have a significantly worse rate of duds compared to the conventional HE shells?

Might be worth noting again these cluster shells are not designed to scatter mines as booby traps, they scatter bomblets which are intended to explode immediately, but some fail to go off.

I was wondering this at the time but didn't find any specific information about exactly what model of shell and specifically what bomblets were used in them.

Gotta say I'm not optimistic about the condition considering this is old stock that would probably not be used except in such extreme needs like this. These aren't the cutting edge models, but older versions in dubious condition after being on the shelf for years.

[Andy_Ross]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

Agreed, but what they reasonably can do is very limited, which is not the message being disseminated when these controversial weapons were first being shipped off.

The whole controversy about cluster munitions is that all the good intentions in the world don't matter one bit. It's the nature of the weapon to leave behind dangerous UXO.

Limited how!
They know which units have the shells and how many they have been issued.
They know where they were fired and when and at what targets.

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by Andy_Ross

Limited how!
They know which units have the shells and how many they have been issued.
They know where they were fired and when and at what targets.

According to the article I linked, this kind of information was not being collected and preserved by artillery crews actually firing the weapons, though later a PR officer would claim otherwise. Forgive me if I think the soldiers actually using the guns are telling the truth and not some propaganda officer.

[Andy_Ross]

You believe any old bollocks that suits you then?

Why would you think the artillery don't know what shells they are firing at what targets?

Ukraine is not the Russian rabble.

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by Andy_Ross

You believe any old bollocks that suits you then?

Why would you think the artillery don't know what shells they are firing at what targets?

They aren't recording it in any systematic way, that's the point. What they know is irrelevant if nothing is getting documented.

[ginjawarrior]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

According to the article I linked, this kind of information was not being collected and preserved by artillery crews actually firing the weapons, though later a PR officer would claim otherwise. Forgive me if I think the soldiers actually using the guns are telling the truth and not some propaganda officer.

The artillery crew are firing to order from command.

The command know what is being fired, where it is being fired and when it is being fired.

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by ginjawarrior

The artillery crew are firing to order from command.

The command know what is being fired, where it is being fired and when it is being fired.

And the presumption here is that whoever orders a fire mission is recording and retaining this kind of granular information?

[Andy_Ross]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

And the presumption here is that whoever orders a fire mission is recording and retaining this kind of granular information?

Yes. They have been training to use NATO techniques and protocols for years.
This is basic stuff

[ginjawarrior]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

And the presumption here is that whoever orders a fire mission is recording and retaining this kind of granular information?

Well yes....

unless you're under the assumption that Ukrainians are idiot yokels who would never dream about recording such information in a command role

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

We're not arming the Russian side, we have very little recourse to object to their tactics. What do you want me to do, go on the roof and shake my fist at Putin?

I want you to write to your elected representatives, urging them to deliver more arms and other aid of all kinds, whatever Ukraine asks for, faster and in greater quantities than heretofore provided.

I want you to write to your elected representatives, urging them to impose more and stiffer sanctions on Russia and its trading partners, and signaling to your representatives your willingness to endure some price increases and goods scarcity, if that is what is needed for these sanctions to have teeth.

I want you to specifically indicate to your representatives your full support for the immediate, ongoing, and substantial supplying of cluster munitions and long-range weapons to Ukraine, and your full support for demining operations in Ukraine, at substantial western expense, once the war is over.

I want you to go to https://u24.gov.ua/, and donate as much money as you can spare, to Ukraine's war effort.

We actually have a lot of recourse to object to Moscow's tactics, even short of declaring open war with them.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by ginjawarrior

The artillery crew are firing to order from command.

The command know what is being fired, where it is being fired and when it is being fired.

Yes, this is the danger of interviewing a low level soldier and thinking its an accurate representation of the war. Sergeant Kovalenko told me he doesn't record when he uses cluster munitions! Zoinkies that means no one is keeping track! I got a great headline for an article!

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I want you to write to your elected representatives, urging them to deliver more arms and other aid of all kinds, whatever Ukraine asks for, faster and in greater quantities than heretofore provided.

I want you to write to your elected representatives, urging them to impose more and stiffer sanctions on Russia and its trading partners, and signaling to your representatives your willingness to endure some price increases and goods scarcity, if that is what is needed for these sanctions to have teeth.

I want you to specifically indicate to your representatives your full support for the immediate, ongoing, and substantial supplying of cluster munitions and long-range weapons to Ukraine, and your full support for demining operations in Ukraine, at substantial western expense, once the war is over.

I want you to go to https://u24.gov.ua/, and donate as much money as you can spare, to Ukraine's war effort.

We actually have a lot of recourse to object to Moscow's tactics, even short of declaring open war with them.

Gonna be real with you chief, I'm not going to do any of that.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

Gonna be real with you chief, I'm not going to do any of that.

You asked.

But of course we knew it wasn't a question of what I want you to do, but a question of what you want to do. Which is leave Ukraine to suffer and die in Russkiy Mir, rather than lift a hand to help them.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Do these cluster shells have a significantly worse rate of duds compared to the conventional HE shells?

Might be worth noting again these cluster shells are not designed to scatter mines as booby traps, they scatter bomblets which are intended to explode immediately, but some fail to go off.

I'm not disputing TGs point about the lies-to-children style of reassuring people that every shell's fall will be solemnly recorded. That's surely baloney. But each Ukrainian field in the war zone will contain a mix of both sides ordnance, some percentage of which will be unexploded. It may be of some value to know whether or not US cluster bomblets are likely to be in the mix but it's surely going to be rare that that's the only thing to worry about.

There is a problem with duds. Partly due to the sheer number, and how they're less obvious than large shells.

Also due to how they land

and this says that Russian cluster munitions have up to 40% dud rate, though I do wonder if that's a feature not a bug, as it causes a long term problem.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/cluste...g-them-ukraine


The main point is that Ukraine is already constrained, but cluster muntions in the front line where Russia is using them and putting landmines in the same place.

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by theprestige

You asked.

But of course we knew it wasn't a question of what I want you to do, but a question of what you want to do. Which is leave Ukraine to suffer and die in Russkiy Mir, rather than lift a hand to help them.

What are you doing to help the Kurds, who are being offered up as a sacrificial lamb to keep our ally Turkey happy?

It's like the old quote about theists: “We are all atheists about most of the gods that humanity has ever believed in. Some of us just go one god further.”

I care about the Ukraine invasion about as much as I care about other wars of aggression. It's bad, Russia is a villain for doing this, but I'm going to do exactly as much as I (and you) would normally do in such occasions, which is basically nothing. I find this whole selective outrage about sovereignty painfully sanctimonious and especially cynical given the recent history of US military adventurism.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

What are you doing to help the Kurds, who are being offered up as a sacrificial lamb to keep our ally Turkey happy?

It's like the old quote about theists: “We are all atheists about most of the gods that humanity has ever believed in. Some of us just go one god further.”

I care about the Ukraine invasion about as much as I care about other wars of aggression. It's bad, Russia is a villain for doing this, but I'm going to do exactly as much as I (and you) would normally do in such occasions, which is basically nothing. I find this whole selective outrage about sovereignty painfully sanctimonious and especially cynical given the recent history of US military adventurism.

Muscovite whataboutism at its "finest".

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by jimbob

There is a problem with duds. Partly due to the sheer number, and how they're less obvious than large shells.

Also due to how they land

and this says that Russian cluster munitions have up to 40% dud rate, though I do wonder if that's a feature not a bug, as it causes a long term problem.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/cluste...g-them-ukraine


The main point is that Ukraine is already constrained, but cluster muntions in the front line where Russia is using them and putting landmines in the same place.

Its a bug, unless they make a high-dud variety for a specific role (ie terrorism). Wars are won by taking ground, who takes ground? Your own soldiers.

Or I suppose its less of a bug, and more of a: we don't really give a **** about our own GI's.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Or I suppose its less of a bug, and more of a: we don't really give a **** about our own GI's.

Heyo, don't do GIs like that. That term refers to American soldiers. Muscovite troops are "contractors" or "mobiks", depending.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Heyo, don't do GIs like that. That term refers to American soldiers. Muscovite troops are "contractors" or "mobiks", depending.

Ah, I never knew it was a USA specific term! Although I did know GI Joe's were lol.

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Heyo, don't do GIs like that. That term refers to American soldiers. Muscovite troops are "contractors" or "mobiks", depending.

Are we pretending that Russia is the only military which contracts out their dirty work now?

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Its a bug, unless they make a high-dud variety for a specific role (ie terrorism). Wars are won by taking ground, who takes ground? Your own soldiers.

Or I suppose its less of a bug, and more of a: we don't really give a **** about our own GI's.

True, I think it is more that they don't care. But often the terrorism aspect is probably considered a fortuitous side effect.

Meanwhile another Tu-22M looks to have been "damaged" at another airbase.

A fine example of vranyo, in some of the Russian telegram channels

Quote of AI translation:

Quote:

The drone crashed on the territory of the airfield in the Kaluga region.
According to the Base, a kamikaze
drone fell on the territory of the airfield on the morning of August 21.
According to preliminary information, an unused aircraft located at the airfield was damaged as a result of the fall. There were no injuries or other damage to infrastructure.

[ginjawarrior]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

Are we pretending that Russia is the only military which contracts out their dirty work now?

Again just where have you had your head buried last year and a half?

Contractors is what the Russians call their volunteer portion of the army

It's not a reference to Wagner

So whataboutism alluding to blackwater doesn't fit here

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Its a bug, unless they make a high-dud variety for a specific role (ie terrorism). Wars are won by taking ground, who takes ground? Your own soldiers.

Or I suppose its less of a bug, and more of a: we don't really give a **** about our own GI's.

Different weapons for different scenarios. Land mines and other area denial weapons are still quite commonly used, eve if they would conceivably be a pain in the ass should friendly troops ever occupy that area.

Littering enemy occupied areas with UXO can have strategic value

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by ginjawarrior

Again just where have you had your head buried last year and a half?

Contractors is what the Russians call their volunteer portion of the army

It's not a reference to Wagner

Thanks, didn't realize that. it's like how British people call private schools public schools for some reason I don't understand. I guess conscripts are under "contracts" of a sort, though contract generally implies agreement rather than being drafted. I suppose there's PR value for Russia in pretending that all these Russian soldiers are more or less volunteers

Originally Posted by ginjawarrior

So whataboutism alluding to blackwater doesn't fit here

Blackwater? That's so many war crimes ago. It's Academi Constellis Holdings now.

[sackett]

Cluster munitions are also used for area denial. Even the self-disarming types will unavoidably leave dangerous duds behind.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

Are we pretending that Russia is the only military which contracts out their dirty work now?

You're thinking of mercenaries, which are distinct from GIs on the American side, and distinct from contractors and mobiks on the Muscovite side.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

Different weapons for different scenarios. Land mines and other area denial weapons are still quite commonly used, eve if they would conceivably be a pain in the ass should friendly troops ever occupy that area.

Littering enemy occupied areas with UXO can have strategic value

OK... but there are purpose built munitions for delivering mines via artillery shell, and checking on it, Russia does have them.

Seems to me to be inefficient to have a weapon that is kind of halfway between artillery and remote minefield delivery system.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

Different weapons for different scenarios. Land mines and other area denial weapons are still quite commonly used, eve if they would conceivably be a pain in the ass should friendly troops ever occupy that area.

Littering enemy occupied areas with UXO can have strategic value

I think you're reaching a bit too far.

The point of dropping a bomb on someone is to have it explode on that someone, at that moment. There is no strategic virtue to be wrung from "we really needed to kill these guys, right here, right now, but at least our dud bomb may accidentally cause some other guy a bit of trouble some other time that doesn't solve our current problem".

If you want the strategic advantage of mining an area, you use mines that actually work as mines. If you want the strategic advantage of bombing an area, you use bombs that actually work as bombs.

"If you have to bomb, bomb. Don't mine by accident."

~ Tuco

[ginjawarrior]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

Thanks, didn't realize that. it's like how British people call private schools public schools for some reason I don't understand.

British here

We don't call them that

Quote:

Blackwater? That's so many war crimes ago. It's Academi Constellis Holdings now.

Again like previous post.

Your whataboutism doesn't fit here

[TurkeysGhost]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I think you're reaching a bit too far.

The point of dropping a bomb on someone is to have it explode on that someone, at that moment. There is no strategic virtue to be wrung from "thanks to poor quality control, our dude rate was so high that our artillery barrage failed to suppress the enemy, and we lost an entire brigade in the ensuing meatgrinder, but at least we left behind some UXO for the enemy to deal with."

If you want the strategic advantage of mining an area, you use mines that actually work as mines. If you want the strategic advantage of bombing an area, you use bombs that actually work as bombs.

"If you have to bomb, bomb. Don't mine by accident."

~ Tuco

To be fair, i don't know enough about the Russian cluster munitions to speak to any intentionality or strategic purpose of their use. Immediate detonation does seem to be the more ideal way to use such a weapon.

It seems entirely plausible, if not most likely, that the high dud rate is merely a result of their rather outdated and cheap military technology. For all the posturing of Russia being a military superpower, this invasion has only shown that they were paper tigers in many ways, and behind all the propaganda and tough guy routine was a bunch of obsolete, poorly maintained junk.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost

To be fair, i don't know enough about the Russian cluster munitions to speak to any intentionality or strategic purpose of their use. Immediate detonation does seem to be the more ideal way to use such a weapon.

Immediate detonation is ideal when you want to immediately detonate something in someone's face. Delayed or triggered detonation is ideal when you want to delay or trigger a detonation in someone's face at some later date of strategic importance. In neither scenario do you want a device that does not detonate at the desired time, but may perhaps detonate later in an unplanned fashion.

[Andy_Ross]

Originally Posted by ginjawarrior

British here

We don't call them that

Yes we do.

It's for historic reasons.

Schools were originally founded by religious orders or guilds. They were private in the sense that only certain people could enrol.

Then schools were founded open to anyone that could pay a fee could enrol, in that respect they were open to the public.

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Michel H

International law applies to all equally, of course, and it seems that both countries (Russia and Ukraine, in alphabetical order) kill or injure civilians sometimes.

In order to stop this sad process, the best way is to stop the war, in a way which might be acceptable and liveable to both parties.

A purely pro-Ukraine peace plan won't get you very far, make no mistake about this.

That's why it's so important that Ukraine inflict catastrophic losses on the orcs. The more Russians they kill the less Russia's interests matter.

Ukraine's offensive is slow but it will cut the land bridge. Once that happens, the Kerch Bridge is gone and both sea and air evacuation will happen by Ukraine's permission. Stop worrying about a peace plan. Ukraine's peace plan is a creeping advance toward the sea.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/17/europ...ntl/index.html

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Andy_Ross

Yes we do.

It's for historic reasons.

Schools were originally founded by religious orders or guilds. They were private in the sense that only certain people could enrol.

Then schools were founded open to anyone that could pay a fee could enrol, in that respect they were open to the public.

To an American "public school" = "state school".