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Tags Coronavirus , Sweden incidents , Sweden issues

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Old 9th August 2020, 05:44 AM   #1641
Childlike Empress
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
It's too bad that a small minority of left-wing Germans have joined the protests of right-wing libertarians and conspiracy nuts.

We are millions now and the bulk of the protesters are plain middle-of-the-road folks. Fortunately we have a ton of medics and scientists who spoke out about this insanity, so everybody who cared to look is informed. I'm actually off now, in the heat (which no coronavirus will ever survive), to my first demonstration since my silly teenage years. One of many that will happen today.
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Old 9th August 2020, 06:38 AM   #1642
dann
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I'm sorry to hear that your teenage years were silly.

I hope that you are aware of the contradiction between Lukashenko's declaration that ""corona" (is) a neurosis that is not happening in his country," and your idea of "the heat (which no coronavirus will ever survive)". Heat is not the way to heal neuroses!

An outdoor demonstration probably won't spread the infection much, but be sure to wear a face mask if you use public transport to get there.
If you are in Dortmund, there seems to be plenty of room for social distancing:
Heute Corona-Demo in Dortmund - Start verzögert sich (Ruhr24.de, Aug. 9, 2020)

Viel Spaß!
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 9th August 2020, 07:07 AM   #1643
dann
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Mir gefällt die eine Parole bei der heutigen Flensburger Demo: "Wer als Patriot losläuft, kommt als Fascist ans Ziel"
Auf die Frage, "Haben die Schweden vielleicht recht?", ist die Antwort natürlich: Nein, überhaupt nicht.

(Two homemade signs at the rally of virus deniers in Flensburg today: 'If you start out as a patriot, you'll end up as a Nazi,' and 'May the Swedes be right after all?' They appear to have both pro and con protesters.)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 9th August 2020, 09:27 AM   #1644
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Mir gefällt die eine Parole bei der heutigen Flensburger Demo: "Wer als Patriot losläuft, kommt als Fascist ans Ziel"
Auf die Frage, "Haben die Schweden vielleicht recht?", ist die Antwort natürlich: Nein, überhaupt nicht.

(Two homemade signs at the rally of virus deniers in Flensburg today: 'If you start out as a patriot, you'll end up as a Nazi,' and 'May the Swedes be right after all?' They appear to have both pro and con protesters.)
You did not translate them both completely:

*** 'If you start out as a patriot, you'll end up as a Nazi,' is a very short-sighted statement. It is drawing on Hitler's maniac idea of what a patriot ought to be but not on the nuances and limits that patriotism can issue.

*** 'May the Swedes be right after all?' You forgot the last clause, "Nein, überhaupt nicht". 'No, not at all'. I really don't think anyone is in a full position to know yet.
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Old 9th August 2020, 11:02 AM   #1645
dann
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Thanks, but it wasn't a translation. I just meant to give the people who don't understand German the general idea.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 9th August 2020, 11:10 AM   #1646
dann
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Aarhus:
128 registreret smittet med coronavirus det seneste døgn (DR.dk, Aug. 9, 2020)
128 new cases since yesterday - 72 of them in Aarhus

Plejehjem i Aarhus ramt af coronasmitte og aktiverer beredskabsplan (dr.dk, Aug. 9, 2020)
Nursing home in Aarhus hit by corona infection; activates contingency plan - So far, one resident only, discovered due to Covid-19 symptoms. Nobody else has symptoms, but …

Skoler i Aarhus udsætter skolestart efter coronasmitte (TV2.dk, Aug. 9, 2020)
Schools in Aarhus postpone the start of the new school year after corona infections

Mortality in Swedish ICUs
Minskad dödlighet bland covidpatienter på IVA (SVT.se, Aug. 9, 2020)
Lowered mortality among Covid-19 patients in ICU - 30-day-mortality rate decreased from 34 percent in March, 21% in April, to 19 percent in May. But there is no reason to celebrate what at first glance appears to be an improvement in the Swedish health-care system. This isn't really a success story. As mentioned before, they simply stopped taking in elderly patients in April ...
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 9th August 2020, 12:28 PM   #1647
dann
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
In my country that's a difference of 33,006 deaths, which IMO would be well worth the inconvenience. The sad thing is the lockdown here was so bungled it's not going to be achieved.

Today, the Swedish media Aftonbladet has this article:
Brittiska tidningen: Sverige kan ha haft rätt hela tiden (Aftonbladet, Aug. 9, 2020)
British newspaper: Sweden may have been right the whole time

It is no surprise that it quotes Giesecke:
Quote:
– Jag mötte en skotsk professor för en tid sedan. Han visade bilder och grafer över den skotska pandemin och la över Sveriges grafer. Bilderna var exakt likadana.
Trots olika strategier?
– Ja precis.
– I met a Scottish professor some time ago. He showed med pictures and graphs of the Scottish pandemic and placed them on top of Sweden's graphs. The pictures were exactly alike.
In spite of different strategies?
– Yes, exactly.

It is also no surprise that Giesecke doesn't explain what makes the graph of Sweden's death toll (I assume that's what he's talking about) similar to that of Scotland but so very different from the of the other Nordic countries ...

This must be the Daily Mail article: Why Sweden, pilloried by the whole world for refusing to lock down - with schools staying open and no face mask laws - may be having the last laugh as experts say Stockholm is close to achieving herd immunity (Daily Mail, Aug. 8, 2020)

The rest of Sweden, in particular the elderly, must be horrified at the prospect of having to go through the same thing Stockholm experienced in order to get 'herd immunity'. As must the elderly in Stockholm who managed to avoid getting it so far.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 9th August 2020, 12:47 PM   #1648
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Yes, so far Sweden has had 5,763 deaths out of 10 million people.
The other Nordic countries have had 1,214 deaths out of 17 million people.

Sweden has flattened the curve without a lockdown, which took it a couple of months longer than the other Nordic countries, it left people to die without any kind of Covid-19 treatment, i.e. with palliative care only, practiced long-distance triage, while bragging about empty ICU units. In other words, Sweden let people die to maintain the illusion of a health-care system that wasn't overwhelmed.

The other Nordic countries hammered down virus fast with a lockdown (version: light), thus saving 10,000 lives and an awful lot of pain, disability and suffering - sometimes long-term.
Not to mention that they managed to make (not only) the elderly population feel relatively safe and not completely abandoned and left to their own devices.

And even in the current situation, Sweden has a higher death toll and number of new infections than the other Nordic countries.

There is no way around it!
We all agree they did a lousy job protecting their elderly

From
Unreported Truths about Covid-19 and Lockdowns
Alex Berenson

“Sweden’s high death rates were driven almost entirely by the fact that the country didn’t just fail to protect nursing homes but in some cases actually discouraged physicians from offering care to the extremely elderly. In a June article headline, “Coronavirus Is Taking a High Toll on Sweden’s Elderly. Families Blame the Government,” The Wall Street Journal detailed disturbing cases in which older patients had been refused hospitalizations. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronav...nt-11592479430)
As a result, Sweden’s coronavirus deaths skew extremely elderly. Almost two-thirds of deaths occurred in people 80 or over, and almost 90 percent in people 70 or over. The Swedish government has acknowledged that its failure to protect nursing homes was a huge and preventable error.
Overall, the course of the epidemic in Sweden has essentially tracked that of countries like Italy and Spain – a big early spike, followed by a slow decline. The trend suggests lockdowns are irrelevant, and that protecting nursing homes makes far more difference.”

“And Japan never imposed a full national lockdown, instead in April imposing only a partial “state of emergency” that lasted only a few weeks and consisted of largely voluntary restrictions.”

“Yet Japan has had an almost bizarrely easy time with Sars-Cov-2. It has reported about 250 cases per million people, even fewer than New Zealand, and 8 deaths per million – about 1 percent of Britain’s rate.
Why? No one really knows. Many Japanese wear masks in public, especially if they have fever or cough, although masking is far from universal. Authorities also discouraged people from gathering in crowds, in closed spaces like bars, and talking closely – the “three Cs” strategy.
(https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...et_cid=3340566)
If those explanations seem unsatisfying, it’s because they are. But we can be sure lockdowns are not the reason for Japan’s success.”
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Old 9th August 2020, 01:58 PM   #1649
dann
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Originally Posted by Gavin View Post
We all agree they did a lousy job protecting their elderly

From
Unreported Truths about Covid-19 and Lockdowns
Alex Berenson

“Sweden’s high death rates were driven almost entirely by the fact that the country didn’t just fail to protect nursing homes but in some cases actually discouraged physicians from offering care to the extremely elderly. In a June article headline, “Coronavirus Is Taking a High Toll on Sweden’s Elderly. Families Blame the Government,” The Wall Street Journal detailed disturbing cases in which older patients had been refused hospitalizations. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronav...nt-11592479430)
As a result, Sweden’s coronavirus deaths skew extremely elderly. Almost two-thirds of deaths occurred in people 80 or over, and almost 90 percent in people 70 or over. The Swedish government has acknowledged that its failure to protect nursing homes was a huge and preventable error.
Overall, the course of the epidemic in Sweden has essentially tracked that of countries like Italy and Spain – a big early spike, followed by a slow decline. The trend suggests lockdowns are irrelevant, and that protecting nursing homes makes far more difference.”

No, we can't agree on that. Not if you put it like that. Sweden did a lousy job of protecting everybody from getting infected, which is why so many old people had to die. If Sweden hadn't aimed for 'herd immunity' by having as many as possible get infected but at a rate slow enough for the hospitals to keep up with the most serious cases, Sweden wouldn't have had the infection rate that it did (and does), and so people in nursing homes wouldn't have been infected by their care workers to the extent they did.
In two of the three latest flare ups, in Aarhus and Hjørring, nursing homes were affected almost immediately.
You can do something to try to keep the infection out of nursing homes, but it doesn't seem to be nearly as effective as clamping down on the spread in general - the way it was done in New Zealand, for example. Otherwise, you will have to guard the nursing homes from the virus the same way they are guarding Trump from it at the White House. And that's just one guy. Everybody else in that place seems to get infected all the time.

Quote:
“And Japan never imposed a full national lockdown, instead in April imposing only a partial “state of emergency” that lasted only a few weeks and consisted of largely voluntary restrictions.”

“Yet Japan has had an almost bizarrely easy time with Sars-Cov-2. It has reported about 250 cases per million people, even fewer than New Zealand, and 8 deaths per million – about 1 percent of Britain’s rate.
Why? No one really knows. Many Japanese wear masks in public, especially if they have fever or cough, although masking is far from universal. Authorities also discouraged people from gathering in crowds, in closed spaces like bars, and talking closely – the “three Cs” strategy.
(https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...et_cid=3340566)
If those explanations seem unsatisfying, it’s because they are. But we can be sure lockdowns are not the reason for Japan’s success.”

No, we can't. What exactly was the "partial “state of emergency”" you mention?
I think you need to read up on the Japanese pandemic response:

Quote:
On 27 February, he requested the temporary closure of all Japanese elementary, junior high, and high schools until early April.
(...)
On 7 April, Abe proclaimed a one-month state of emergency for Tokyo and the prefectures of Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Osaka, Hyogo, and Fukuoka.[10] On 16 April, the declaration was extended to the rest of the country for an indefinite period.
COVIC-19 pandemic in Japan (Wikipedia)
Potato - potahto, lockdown - state of emergency.

Japan appears to have locked down just as much and in some respects more than most Nordic countries. Most of the measures in Denmark were voluntary, too, by the way. In fact, most of them still are, but I hope that they will make wearing face masks in shops and on public transportation mandatory.
That appears to be the most important thing that the Japanese have have done that is different from the Nordic countries, and it seems to have worked wonders.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 9th August 2020, 02:07 PM   #1650
dann
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Yesterday, a stand-up comedian, who specializes in satire had been invited to speak in Stuttgart at one of the virus-denier rallies organized by Querdenken 711. (querdenken means thinking outside the box.) The organizers didn't seem to like what he told them, in particular when he ended with:

”Verhindert die Dikatur, indem ihr vernünftig seid! Maske auf! Abstand halten! Nachdenken!”
Prevent the dictatorship by being sensible! Wear face masks! Social distance! Think for yourselves!

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 9th August 2020, 02:13 PM   #1651
dann
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Sunday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 9, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 570 (5,763) 41* 34 *356 according to SVT.se.
Denmark: 106 (617) 136 2

Finland: 60 (331) 16 0
Norway: 47 (256) 16 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 3 1
Iceland has 114 active cases, Faroe Islands 88, New Zealand 23.
The Faroe Island had 8 new cases today, but the number of active cases dropped to 88.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 9th August 2020, 02:45 PM   #1652
Gavin
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
No, we can't agree on that. Not if you put it like that. Sweden did a lousy job of protecting everybody from getting infected, which is why so many old people had to die. If Sweden hadn't aimed for 'herd immunity' by having as many as possible get infected but at a rate slow enough for the hospitals to keep up with the most serious cases, Sweden wouldn't have had the infection rate that it did (and does), and so people in nursing homes wouldn't have been infected by their care workers to the extent they did.
In two of the three latest flare ups, in Aarhus and Hjørring, nursing homes were affected almost immediately.
You can do something to try to keep the infection out of nursing homes, but it doesn't seem to be nearly as effective as clamping down on the spread in general - the way it was done in New Zealand, for example. Otherwise, you will have to guard the nursing homes from the virus the same way they are guarding Trump from it at the White House. And that's just one guy. Everybody else in that place seems to get infected all the time.
They had almost 90 percent in people over 70 of there fatalities it had nothing to do with no lockdown apparently masks and social distancing don’t work in nursing homes if a strict quarantine was put in place before any cases where transmitted then it possibly might have worked
Compared to states that have around the same population and did have lockdowns but had more deaths

Sweden
Coronavirus Cases:
82,323
Deaths:
5,763

Pen
Coronavirus Cases:
122,666
Deaths:
7,394

Illinois

Illinois
Coronavirus Cases:
195,380
Deaths:
7,845

Georgia
Coronavirus Cases:
216,596
Deaths:
4,199



Quote:
No, we can't. What exactly was the "partial “state of emergency”" you mention?
I think you need to read up on the Japanese pandemic response:



Potato - potahto, lockdown - state of emergency.

Japan appears to have locked down just as much and in some respects more than most Nordic countries. Most of the measures in Denmark were voluntary, too, by the way. In fact, most of them still are, but I hope that they will make wearing face masks in shops and on public transportation mandatory.
That appears to be the most important thing that the Japanese have have done that is different from the Nordic countries, and it seems to have worked wonders.
Did you try reading the wiki link on Japan’s response to the virus?

Under the law, the Japanese government does not have the authority to enforce citywide lockdowns. Apart from individual quarantine measures, officials cannot restrict the movement of people in order to contain the virus. Consequently, compliance with government requests to restrict movements is based on "asking for public cooperation to ‘protect people’s lives’ and minimize further damage to [the economy]"
It was quarantine on voluntary basis only

Last edited by Gavin; 9th August 2020 at 03:08 PM.
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Old 9th August 2020, 03:47 PM   #1653
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Originally Posted by Gavin View Post

<snip>
Did you try reading the wiki link on Japan’s response to the virus?

Under the law, the Japanese government does not have the authority to enforce citywide lockdowns. Apart from individual quarantine measures, officials cannot restrict the movement of people in order to contain the virus. Consequently, compliance with government requests to restrict movements is based on "asking for public cooperation to ‘protect people’s lives’ and minimize further damage to [the economy]"
It was quarantine on voluntary basis only
Japanese people have a reputation for being obedient, orderly, and polite.
A government "suggestion" in Japan is tantamount to giving a direct order that will be followed by the majority.
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Old 9th August 2020, 04:30 PM   #1654
Rolfe
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Originally Posted by dann
– I met a Scottish professor some time ago. He showed med pictures and graphs of the Scottish pandemic and placed them on top of Sweden's graphs. The pictures were exactly alike.
In spite of different strategies?
– Yes, exactly.

You've heard me discuss this previously. The Scottish and Swedish graphs were extremely similar at the time when Scotland was copying whatever England did, and at that time the English plan was for herd immunity on speed. Not only was the virus allowed to run free, it was actually encouraged to spread as fast as possible because BoJo wanted to get the epidemic over and done with fast. For that reason this period was actually worse than Sweden as far as England is concerned. Scotland wasn't quite so bad because the main international airports and ports are in England so we were that wee bit behind when the lockdown happened, and so just happened to parallel Sweden's epidemic. The lockdown was too little too late in the face of the policy of accelerated spread that had preceded it.

However since about mid-May when Scotland diverged from England's strategy we've been doing a lot better and as I said the curves no longer match. We haven't had a confirmed death for over three weeks and at one point our daily average of new cases was under ten per day. We're having a cluster right now that's bumping up the numbers and the underlying prevalence has gone up a little but we're on it and still doing a lot better than Sweden now.
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Old 9th August 2020, 08:13 PM   #1655
dann
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Yes, I am aware of that. This is what makes it so bloody absurd. The Swedish epidemiologists would like to prove that lockdowns don't work, and they do so by comparing with Scotland where the lockdown worked. Giesecke isn't exactly open about comparing Sweden with the situation in Scotland before the lockdown because, well, Scotland did have a lockdown at some point and who cares when ...
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 9th August 2020 at 10:01 PM.
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Old 9th August 2020, 10:00 PM   #1656
dann
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Originally Posted by Gavin View Post
They had almost 90 percent in people over 70 of there fatalities it had nothing to do with no lockdown apparently masks and social distancing don’t work in nursing homes if a strict quarantine was put in place before any cases where transmitted then it possibly might have worked
Compared to states that have around the same population and did have lockdowns but had more deaths

Sweden
Coronavirus Cases:
82,323
Deaths:
5,763

Pen
Coronavirus Cases:
122,666
Deaths:
7,394

Illinois

Illinois
Coronavirus Cases:
195,380
Deaths:
7,845

Georgia
Coronavirus Cases:
216,596
Deaths:
4,199
You really don't want to learn, do you?! To prove your hypothesis, it might have been a good idea to include the number of cases in nursing homes in those states. However, that might not even work because one of your numbers is completely useless and proves one thing only:
Sweden, Coronavirus Cases: 82,323; Deaths: 5,763
Georgia, Coronavirus Cases: 216,596; Deaths: 4,199

And you could know this without me having to tell you. You would just have had to combine the claims from the sources you have quoted from already in this thread.
Consider this: What did the Swedish doctor tell you about 'herd immunity' in Stockholm? How many people live in Stockholm? How does that number compare to your number of coronavirus cases?
It's amazing, isn't it?!
The only thing your numbers tell us is that they did some testing in Georgia, apparently, and in Sweden they only tested a small fraction of the population. (So did Georgia, I guess, but apparently its fraction of people tested was much larger than Sweden's.)

Quote:
Did you try reading the wiki link on Japan’s response to the virus?

Under the law, the Japanese government does not have the authority to enforce citywide lockdowns. Apart from individual quarantine measures, officials cannot restrict the movement of people in order to contain the virus. Consequently, compliance with government requests to restrict movements is based on "asking for public cooperation to ‘protect people’s lives’ and minimize further damage to [the economy]"
It was quarantine on voluntary basis only.

So you are claiming that schools didn't lock down? That Japan didn't cancel the Olympics?

Don't let the title of this article fool you. The three C's are not unimportant, but ... :
Quote:
A list of possible reasons circulating online includes an existing culture of mask-wearing, a lower rate of obesity, the government's early push to close schools, and a claim that speakers of Japanese emit fewer viral droplets than speakers of other languages.
(...)
They also pointed to Japan's robust network of contract tracers who began tracking the spread of the disease in January
(...)
Japan didn't enforce shutdowns or social-distancing orders, but [hilite]it encouraged people to avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded places with groups of people, and close-contact settings like one-on-one conversations[hilite].
Japan avoided a lockdown by telling everyone to steer clear of the 3 C's. Here's what that means. (Business Insider, May 28, 2020)
How do you think that works in real life? In particular, how do you think it affects the owners of bars, discos and concert venues when people don't show up because they have been made aware of the dangers of doing so? And why do you think Sweden is so proud of its strategy?

In Denmark, discos and concert venues are still locked down - and I hope it remains so until the vaccine is there - but the owners are compensated. If I were the owner of a disco, I'd much prefer that situation instead of trying to keep it open as diminishing numbers of people show up because they are aware that going to the disco is a super-spreader event, which, I guess, was the reason why they remained open in Sweden: It would be in accordance with Sweden's attempts to spread the virus among young people to achieve herd immunity while conveniently forgetting that the same young people would go back to their jobs as care workers in nursing homes the next day!

As they write in ScienceMag:
Quote:
“We try to identify the clusters and [determine] their common characteristics.”
Not surprisingly, they found that most clusters originated in gyms, pubs, live music venues, karaoke rooms, and similar establishments where people gather, eat and drink, chat, sing, and work out or dance, rubbing shoulders for relatively extended periods of time. They also concluded that most of the primary cases that touched off large clusters were either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms. “It is impossible to stop the emergence of clusters just by testing many people,” Oshitani says. This led them to urge people to avoid what they dubbed the “three Cs”—closed spaces, crowds, and close-contact settings in which people are talking face-to-face. It sounds simple. But, “This has been the most important component of the strategy,” Oshitani says.
Japan ends its COVID-19 state of emergency (ScienceMag, May 26, 2020)
So let's look at some of the things, apart from the three C's, that Japan did (and still does) and Sweden didn't do:
1) Lockdown of schools
2) Contact tracing
3) Wearing face masks
And let's look at some of the things that Sweden did (and still does) but Japan didn't (still doesn't) do:
1) Claiming that children don't spread the virus.
2) Claiming that asymptomatic virus transmission is unimportant (i.e. telling people to stay at home if they have symptoms and assume that they aren't infected if they are asymptomatic)
3) Telling people early on (in March!!!) that there was no reason to worry: It was already peaking and would soon go away.

Notice that Sweden to this day still doesn't do contact tracing! Instead, it is left up to people to tell their contacts that they may be infected. This is also the reason why Swedish epidemiologists don't know **** about how the virus spreads in the country, which, of course, enables them to remain ignorant of the spread that takes place in schools: Most children aren't affected much, so outbreak at schools only become apparent when teachers are infected, and even in those cases Sweden doesn't contact trace.

Depending on when you begin to tackle the pandemic, there are ways to do so without lockdowns. Japan did it without locking down private businesses, for instance. Iceland and New Zealand didn't lock down much. However, if the infection has already reached a high level - and in particular if you don't have the facilities to start doing TeTrIs fast, lockdowns are the only measure that can hammer down the virus. Sweden, however, didn't do any of those things.
Lockdowns have worked everywhere - except in the places where governments had an ambiguous attitude to them and therefore hesitated and switched from 'herd immunity' strategy to lockdowns and back again like in the UK, i.e. in the countries that Sweden prefers to compare itself with.

And I almost forgot this: Border enforcement measures to prevent the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, July 24, 2020) But Swedes don't think that this measure has any effect. Tegnell has told them that there is no scientific evidence that it does.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old Yesterday, 12:59 AM   #1657
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Norway transfers some of the Swedish regions that they had opened up for from status green back to red because their levels of infection are too high again.
This again proves that no one (really) knows what is going on. Everyone is guessing. I doubt very much that Sweden knows what it is doing, but just "experimenting" and hoping that if it works the world will bow to us as the saviour. I mean, Norway (m.m.) must have looked at our death rate and listened to our theories .... it sounded good so they let us in. So now what? Is Norway going to let us back in once our death figures go down, ignoring our methods? I don't think so, but .... who knows what they are thinking? The logical conclusion would be that our method is no good but maybe there are other circumstances that do not disprove a solid method. We're all working in the dark.

Originally Posted by Clutch Cargo View Post
... perhaps there is more to understand than you know.
Originally Posted by dann View Post
Perhaps there is more to understand than you think you know:
All of the above. That's the point.
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Old Yesterday, 03:19 AM   #1658
dann
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Originally Posted by Clutch Cargo View Post
This again proves that no one (really) knows what is going on. Everyone is guessing. I doubt very much that Sweden knows what it is doing, but just "experimenting" and hoping that if it works the world will bow to us as the saviour. I mean, Norway (m.m.) must have looked at our death rate and listened to our theories .... it sounded good so they let us in. So now what? Is Norway going to let us back in once our death figures go down, ignoring our methods? I don't think so, but .... who knows what they are thinking? The logical conclusion would be that our method is no good but maybe there are other circumstances that do not disprove a solid method. We're all working in the dark.

No, don't say that no one really knows what's going on. There are many things we do know at this point, and there are many we don't know.

What I do know for a fact at this point is that Sweden has been flying blind almost from the beginning and based its strategy on Tegnell's claims about the development of the pandemic. Claims that he often pulled out of his ass based on nothing whatsoever. One of his ridiculous assumptions, for instance, was that Swedes were so superior to all other nationalities that its population of old people probably wouldn't be affected much because old Swedes were healthier than everybody else's old people, and Sweden's health care was superior to health care in Southern Europe. You know, those primitive Mediterraneans just can't cope in comparison with Sweden, so Sweden would never have the number of deaths that Italy had. For some reason, it's a story we don't hear much anymore.

It already helped when the Italian ambassador pulled out statistics that proved the idea of Italian inferiority wrong.

Months ago, Tegnell more or less ordered Denmark to open up its borders for Scanians because the number of infections in Scania allegedly was lower than than the corresponding number in Copenhagen. And it was, of course. It was a fact, but it was also a fact that people in Scania weren't tested nearly as much as people in Copenhagen, which fortunately occurred to the Danish health authorities before they opened up again.

I imagine that Norway very recently opened its borders to people from Scania because it was also fooled by Sweden's appeal to (misleading) statistics.
Throughout this pandemic, Sweden, led by Tegnell, has been trying to prove to the world how well it was doing, and it has been doing so by presenting its misleading statistics to a world, which, for the most part, is unaware how incomparable Sweden's numbers of new cases have been to their own the whole time.

You can't expect journalists to know all the details. In the early months of the Swedish outbreak, for instance, I read Greta Thunberg's story of how she and her father might have had Covid-19! They both got sick, but since Sweden didn't even test people with symptoms, there was no way of knowing if they had had Covid-19 or not. People were only tested when they were hospitalized. A lot of them probably still are. And that is the reason that makes it so ridiculous when Gavin presents this number and expects it to prove something
That is another fact that we can be absolutely sure about.

That is something that we do know, and that is what makes most Swedish claims insane. I am not even sure if Sweden knows about all of its nursing home deaths: When you prescribe palliative care long distance, i.e. by phone, i.e. letting people die in the nursing homes in spite of available beds in ICUs, then I no longer trust anything said by ******** like Tegnell and Giesecke. By the way, this Swedish version of long-distance triage isn't something that I hear Tegnell and Giesecke brag about when they are talking to journalists abroad - or in Sweden. But it is much easier to make foreigners think that the Swedish health-care system wasn't overwhelmed, i.e. that at least this part of the Swedish strategy worked, when you can just point at the Swedish (******* useless) numbers.

You are new to this thread, Clutch Cargo. If you really want to know what has been going on in Sweden for the past several months, you should go back and start at the beginning, April 4, 2020. The story about the Italian ambassador, for instance, is in there somewhere. But you can also choose to take the blue pill and simply believe everything Tegnell and his fanboys tell you. You know, what Gavin seems to be doing.

Quote:
All of the above. That's the point.

Yes, there is still more to understand, but I think that this is yet another one of Tegnell's and Giesecke's lies you have taken to heart: Because we can't know everything about how this pandemic is going to end until it does, we can't know anything along the way.
That Sweden has been flying blind from the start makes it much easier for them to make this claim, but we still know how Sweden has been flying blind and why: Because that's the way the two ******** wanted it, and they have been busy covering up for it ever since.

I am still amazed that Swedes didn't seem to question Tegnell's authority even when he refused to believe that New Zealand had managed to hammer down the virus as successfully as they did. He declared that it was "impossible!" How can you trust a psychopath like this and let him be in charge of your health and lives? Do you have any reason to trust him other than a need to believe in Swedish exceptionalism?
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old Yesterday, 03:39 AM   #1659
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Well here is a strong article in defence of the eternal dance, herd immunity is a balletic masterpiece, Pavlova and Nureyev?

Covid 19 coronavirus: Will Sweden get the last laugh?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12355353
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Old Yesterday, 03:48 AM   #1660
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Well here is a strong article in defence of the eternal dance, herd immunity is a balletic masterpiece, Pavlova and Nureyev?

Covid 19 coronavirus: Will Sweden get the last laugh?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12355353
...you've cited the NZ Herald, but just to make it clear thats a syndicated article from the Daily Mail, where the original headline was "Why Sweden, pilloried by the whole world for refusing to lock down - with schools staying open and no face mask laws - may be having the last laugh as experts say Stockholm is close to achieving herd immunity."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ing-laugh.html

Sweden are not close to achieving herd immunity
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Old Yesterday, 03:57 AM   #1661
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Originally Posted by banquetbear View Post
...you've cited the NZ Herald, but just to make it clear thats a syndicated article from the Daily Mail, where the original headline was "Why Sweden, pilloried by the whole world for refusing to lock down - with schools staying open and no face mask laws - may be having the last laugh as experts say Stockholm is close to achieving herd immunity."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ing-laugh.html

Sweden are not close to achieving herd immunity
And to be quite clear I regard Anders Tegnell as a charlatan.
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Old Yesterday, 03:58 AM   #1662
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More Tegnell nonsense yesterday in a German paper:
Interview mit dem schwedischen Staats-Epidemiologen Anders Tegnell: Sich nur auf Masken zu verlassen, ist sehr gefährlich! (Bild.de, Aug. 9, 2020)
Interview with the Swedish national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell: It is very dangerous to rely solely on face masks

He is as predictable as Trump. Like an old dog, he just keeps repeating the tricks that have worked before: Nobody in the entire world, or at least nobody I've heard of, claims that face masks alone are the solution to the pandemic. And yet he keeps repeating this phrase as if he doesn't know how misleading it is.

Meanwhile, back in Sweden:

Quote:
Forskaren Tom Britton: Bland annat bör användande av munskydd vid trånga folksamlingar inomhus rekommenderas.
”Sveriges coronastrategi behöver ändras inför hösten” (DagensNyheter.se, Aug. 9, 2020)
The researcher Tom Britton: Among other things, the use of face masks in crowded indoor spaces should be recommended
"Sweden's corona strategy needs to be changed before autumn
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old Yesterday, 04:10 AM   #1663
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
More Tegnell nonsense yesterday in a German paper:
Interview mit dem schwedischen Staats-Epidemiologen Anders Tegnell: Sich nur auf Masken zu verlassen, ist sehr gefährlich! (Bild.de, Aug. 9, 2020)
Interview with the Swedish national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell: It is very dangerous to rely solely on face masks

He is as predictable as Trump. Like an old dog, he just keeps repeating the tricks that have worked before: Nobody in the entire world, or at least nobody I've heard of, claims that face masks alone are the solution to the pandemic. And yet he keeps repeating this phrase as if he doesn't know how misleading it is.

Meanwhile, back in Sweden:


The researcher Tom Britton: Among other things, the use of face masks in crowded indoor spaces should be recommended
"Sweden's corona strategy needs to be changed before autumn
Sometimes it helps to consider 3 possibilities, and in the case of face masks

If everyone wears them all the time
1. Will more people get covid?
2. Will the same number of people get covid?
3. Will fewer people get covid?

Only one answer can be correct.
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Old Yesterday, 05:02 AM   #1664
dann
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Sometimes it helps to consider 3 possibilities, and in the case of face masks

If everyone wears them all the time
1. Will more people get covid?
2. Will the same number of people get covid?
3. Will fewer people get covid?

Only one answer can be correct.

There are more possible answers, for instance: Will more people get covid in some situations and fewer in other situations? But these are questions that can't really be answered by means of clinical tests: You can't divide people into two groups, with or without face masks, and them expose them to the virus. And Tegnell won't recognize the studies that have been made with other viruses because ... well, they aren't coronavirus. And these are the guys who, in other contexts, love to compare SARS-CoV-2 to the flu!

This is what is so infuriating about these ********. We know that any kind of evidence doesn't matter to Tegnell because he decided against face masks at the beginning of the pandemic - for whatever reason. The reason he states is that science hasn't proved that face masks help prevent or slow down the spread of the virus. Consequently, there must be something wrong with every study that seems to indicate that face masks help: In the countries where face masks seem to work, for instance Japan, they have taken other measures than face masks, so you can't really know if face masks work or not. But if you can point to any country recommending face masks that exhibits a rising number of infections, then it must be because face masks don't work. It isn't due to anything else.

It's the same attitude Tegnell and his fans have to lockdowns. They don't acknowledge that lockdowns have an immediate effect by lowering the number of new infections. Instead they point to the number of deaths, which keeps rising for two weeks after lockdowns, and even though it's self-evident why there will be more deaths even after the transmission of the virus slows down, to Tegnell and his fans it must be because lockdowns don't work.
They are cherry-picking explanations as well as facts.

At the same time, he makes claims and decisions based on no proof whatsoever. For instance the idea that people will break the social-distancing rules if they start wearing face masks. He hs decided that it is a choice between social distancing and face masks, so you can't possibly do both.
It doesn't even appear to him that face masks would be very useful in situations where people can't keep a distance even though they would like to do so. On public transport, for instance.

And nobody asks him for the studies that prove his insane idea, and it doesn't seem to matter that there aren't any because that is what Tegnell has chosen to believe. In this respect, Tegnell is as stubborn as Trump, and I have come to suspect that he is as intellectually lazy as Trump, too. I don't think that he keeps up with the latest research at all, be it on face masks or anything else. He seems to be on the lookout only for ideas that can support what he has already decided.

This is also why he (as well as his buddy Giesecke) keep repeating that we can't know anything until it is all over. And I think that they hope that everybody will then have forgotten about all the false claims they made throughout the pandemic: We made it through, we are still here - except for those who aren't.
Again: Much like Trump!
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old Yesterday, 05:18 AM   #1665
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I am seeing a growing admiration for Tegnell and within New Zealand.
Kerrie Woodham is an influential radio host.
This is loosely associated with a group of people who deny a correlation between predictions from decades ago that increased CO 2 would show increasing temperatures at the poles before elsewhere.
I lament that revisionists will operate outside of scientific methology.
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Old Yesterday, 07:58 AM   #1666
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
No, don't say that no one really knows what's going on. There are many things we do know at this point, and there are many we don't know.

What I do know for a fact at this point is that Sweden has been flying blind almost from the beginning and based its strategy on Tegnell's claims about the development of the pandemic. Claims that he often pulled out of his ass based on nothing whatsoever. One of his ridiculous assumptions, for instance, was that Swedes were so superior to all other nationalities that its population of old people probably wouldn't be affected much because old Swedes were healthier than everybody else's old people, and Sweden's health care was superior to health care in Southern Europe. You know, those primitive Mediterraneans just can't cope in comparison with Sweden, so Sweden would never have the number of deaths that Italy had. For some reason, it's a story we don't hear much anymore.

It already helped when the Italian ambassador pulled out statistics that proved the idea of Italian inferiority wrong.

Months ago, Tegnell more or less ordered Denmark to open up its borders for Scanians because the number of infections in Scania allegedly was lower than than the corresponding number in Copenhagen. And it was, of course. It was a fact, but it was also a fact that people in Scania weren't tested nearly as much as people in Copenhagen, which fortunately occurred to the Danish health authorities before they opened up again.

I imagine that Norway very recently opened its borders to people from Scania because it was also fooled by Sweden's appeal to (misleading) statistics.
Throughout this pandemic, Sweden, led by Tegnell, has been trying to prove to the world how well it was doing, and it has been doing so by presenting its misleading statistics to a world, which, for the most part, is unaware how incomparable Sweden's numbers of new cases have been to their own the whole time.

You can't expect journalists to know all the details. In the early months of the Swedish outbreak, for instance, I read Greta Thunberg's story of how she and her father might have had Covid-19! They both got sick, but since Sweden didn't even test people with symptoms, there was no way of knowing if they had had Covid-19 or not. People were only tested when they were hospitalized. A lot of them probably still are. And that is the reason that makes it so ridiculous when Gavin presents this number and expects it to prove something
That is another fact that we can be absolutely sure about.

That is something that we do know, and that is what makes most Swedish claims insane. I am not even sure if Sweden knows about all of its nursing home deaths: When you prescribe palliative care long distance, i.e. by phone, i.e. letting people die in the nursing homes in spite of available beds in ICUs, then I no longer trust anything said by ******** like Tegnell and Giesecke. By the way, this Swedish version of long-distance triage isn't something that I hear Tegnell and Giesecke brag about when they are talking to journalists abroad - or in Sweden. But it is much easier to make foreigners think that the Swedish health-care system wasn't overwhelmed, i.e. that at least this part of the Swedish strategy worked, when you can just point at the Swedish (******* useless) numbers.

You are new to this thread, Clutch Cargo. If you really want to know what has been going on in Sweden for the past several months, you should go back and start at the beginning, April 4, 2020. The story about the Italian ambassador, for instance, is in there somewhere. But you can also choose to take the blue pill and simply believe everything Tegnell and his fanboys tell you. You know, what Gavin seems to be doing.




Yes, there is still more to understand, but I think that this is yet another one of Tegnell's and Giesecke's lies you have taken to heart: Because we can't know everything about how this pandemic is going to end until it does, we can't know anything along the way.
That Sweden has been flying blind from the start makes it much easier for them to make this claim, but we still know how Sweden has been flying blind and why: Because that's the way the two ******** wanted it, and they have been busy covering up for it ever since.

I am still amazed that Swedes didn't seem to question Tegnell's authority even when he refused to believe that New Zealand had managed to hammer down the virus as successfully as they did. He declared that it was "impossible!" How can you trust a psychopath like this and let him be in charge of your health and lives? Do you have any reason to trust him other than a need to believe in Swedish exceptionalism?
There has been plenty of criticism against Tegnell. I am a sincere SD supporter, I read Nyheter Idag and sometimes (very seldom) Fria Tider … and I listen to Björn Björkqvist, Samhällsnytt, Jimmie Man, Exakt 24, Jellybean Gen, and Joakim Lamotte whenever I think they have something important to say.
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Old Yesterday, 08:21 AM   #1667
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Here's an interesting graph that demonstrates just where Sweden and Scotland diverged. Also how different Scotland now is from England. The divergence is the point where Scotland stopped doing what England was doing.



Basically we were doing what England was doing until early May, and we looked like England and Sweden. Two weeks or so after we diverged from the English strategies and switched to doing much more like what Denmark, Finland and Norway were doing, our death statistics started to look like those of these latter countries. The tragedy of course is the deaths that occurred because of that politically-motivated decision back in February not to think and act for ourselves based on our own situation but to copy England in "lockstep". People are pointing to the much better situation since the change of tactics and trying to excuse the catastrophic initial decisions on that basis, but I'm not so sure.
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Old Yesterday, 08:34 AM   #1668
dann
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am seeing a growing admiration for Tegnell and within New Zealand.
Kerrie Woodham is an influential radio host.
This is loosely associated with a group of people who deny a correlation between predictions from decades ago that increased CO 2 would show increasing temperatures at the poles before elsewhere.
I lament that revisionists will operate outside of scientific methology.

If you are against lockdowns, for whatever reason, Tegnell will be the one you refer to if you want to make your claims sciency, and Sweden's strategy will be the one that you want to emulate.
Abroad, the fans of Tegnell tend to be small business owners and politicians who pretend to cater to their interests, in the USA the Republicans. Any restrictions placed on business interests will be considered anti-business even when, as in the case of SARS-CoV-2, it is actually more a question of distinguishing between long-term and short-term business interests.
People's health, and in particular old people's health, isn't of much concern to them.

But then there is also the problem with the party landscape in modern democracies: What do you do as opposition to hold on to your job at the next election?
In Denmark, it is very obvious that it's a problem for the parties of the opposition how to profile themselves in the middle of the pandemic. On the one hand, they may want the nation to get through the pandemic as unscathed as possible, but on the other hand, they need to convince the voters that they would have been the better managers of the current crisis, and that they will be better than the current government at reestablishing the economy when the pandemic is over.
To many of them, Tegnell will appear to be the answer to their dreams. Some of them might even want to see the lockdown strategy fail because it might further their political careers.

I don't find much about Kerrie Woodham in this context. Is it Kerre or Kerrie?
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Yesterday, 08:55 AM   #1669
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Originally Posted by Clutch Cargo View Post
There has been plenty of criticism against Tegnell. I am a sincere SD supporter, I read Nyheter Idag and sometimes (very seldom) Fria Tider … and I listen to Björn Björkqvist, Samhällsnytt, Jimmie Man, Exakt 24, Jellybean Gen, and Joakim Lamotte whenever I think they have something important to say.

There has been some criticism. I have primarily focussed on the criticism from scientists like Björn Olsen and the other 22 critics of the Swedish strategy instead of the political rivalries.

I have watched a couple of the Swedish press briefings, and I've been astonished how much the journalists let Tegnell get away with. And many Swedes appear to be concerned about this lack of criticism and investigativeness, too:

Quote:
Aug. 7 – 11:43
Quote:
Om ni tycker svaren vid FHM's presskonferenser är otydliga och undvikande så är väl det ert jobb att påtala detta då. Ni säger att det är svårt att gräva vidare när man inte vet så mycket. Blev oerhört förvånad av detta svar av en journalist. Oerhört passiv och undvikande aporoach! Hur förklarar ni brittiska journalisters arbetssätt? Har de mer kompetens och driv?
Karin
Hej Karin, brittiska journalister vet inte mer om sjukdomen än vad vi gör. I grund och botten är det studier som avgör vårt kunskapsläge och vetenskap tar tid. Det har trots allt bara gått några månader sedan vi konfronterades med ett helt nytt virus. Om brittiska journalister är allmänt mer kritiska till myndigheter beror nog på vilka medier du följer. mvh Sara
Sara Milstead

Quote:
Hej Sara, Igår när SVT ställde frågan om unga vuxna och om det bör vara distansundervisning även under höstterminen så svarade Tegnell att - nej det är nog alldeles försent för det. Varför ställer ingen följdfrågor på ett sådant svar?
Helene
SVT gjorde en längre intervju efter presskonferensen. Det är vanligt att man ställer frågor efter den allmänna utfrågningen. mvh Sara
Sara Milstead

Quote:
• 09:53
Ni journalister måste "steppa" upp lite. Man blir lite avundsjuk på exempelvis de engelska motsvarigheterna. Betydligt tuffare.
Tova
Hej, jag gissar att många utgår från FHM:s presskonferens. Vi kan ställa fler "tuffa" frågor, som vissa uttrycker det, men jag tror att frustrationen många gånger bygger på att svaren är undvikande och otydliga på de frågor som faktiskt ställs. mvh Sara
Sara Milstead

Quote:
På tal om presskonferensen och att ni journalister inte får svar på era frågor: är det då inte er uppgift att fortsätta gräva? Att ställa frågor? Att jaga ansvariga tills ni fått svar?
Robin
Att gräva är svårt i en situation där vi inte vet så mycket. Det fordrar att det finns tydliga svar, och det gör det inte på många frågor. Har du något konkret uppslag får du gärna mejla och tipsa oss.
Sara Milstead
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (Aftonbladet.se, Aug. 7, 2020)

I can empathize with the journalist in a situation like this: They are not epidemiologists. But they could try to consult experts like Björn Olsen, maybe even have an open chat with him online. I'm pretty sure that he is watching the press briefings, too, and he would know which questions to ask and how to continue when Tegnell & Co. are being unclear and evasive.
It is much too easy for Tegnell to run circles around them with his appeals to alleged 'science' and 'research' that they don't understand. Tegnell is almost never specific when he refers to science and research, and he rarely comes up with proper explanations for anything. His imbecile idea that you have to use either face masks or social distancing is just one of many examples that show his incompetence just as much as Trump's in the USA - considering that only one of those two is supposed to be an actual epidemiologist.
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Old Yesterday, 09:07 AM   #1670
dann
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Here's an interesting graph that demonstrates just where Sweden and Scotland diverged. Also how different Scotland now is from England. The divergence is the point where Scotland stopped doing what England was doing.



Basically we were doing what England was doing until early May, and we looked like England and Sweden. Two weeks or so after we diverged from the English strategies and switched to doing much more like what Denmark, Finland and Norway were doing, our death statistics started to look like those of these latter countries. The tragedy of course is the deaths that occurred because of that politically-motivated decision back in February not to think and act for ourselves based on our own situation but to copy England in "lockstep". People are pointing to the much better situation since the change of tactics and trying to excuse the catastrophic initial decisions on that basis, but I'm not so sure.

I assume that when England's graph is as steep as it is (more so than Sweden's), it must be because they actively encouraged people to spread the infection as much as possible at the beginning of the epidemic: Sports events in March 'caused increased suffering and death' (BBC News, May 26, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Yesterday, 09:10 AM   #1671
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All this talk about Sweden achieveing something called "herd immunity", as if that was a desirable goal. You need to ask what the situation of the country with respect to the virus will be when that goal is achieved. You will find that this is not a good situation at all, because what they are describing is not what is normally understood by the term herd immunity.
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Old Yesterday, 09:24 AM   #1672
Rolfe
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
I assume that when England's graph is as steep as it is (more so than Sweden's), it must be because they actively encouraged people to spread the infection as much as possible at the beginning of the epidemic: Sports events in March 'caused increased suffering and death' (BBC News, May 26, 2020)

That is my opinion, yes. They didn't just decide to stay open and let it happen, they encouraged the virus to spread to all parts of the country as quickly as possible. If you look at other European countries that had bad epidemics there is a variation within these countries, with the epidemic more contained to a particular region and steps being taken to protect regions that the virus hadn't yet got such a hold on. Nothing like that happened in Britain, with people being encouraged to travel to sporting events and then back home, in the case of Cheltenham this was often hundreds of miles.

We were more or less being told it was our duty to get the virus to further the herd immunity goal, even as out of the other sides of their mouths they were telling us about handwashing and making minimal murmurings about social distancing. They didn't want to protect anyone or any region. We could have protected our vulnerable islands but we didn't. Why would we, when the whole plan was for at least 60% of people right across the country to get the virus?

I believe the thinking behind this was coloured by Brexit. Brexit was all the politicians were thinking about in late January and into February, and the date for the end of the transition period is of course 31st December. I believe Johnson saw the best strategy as being to have as fast an epidemic as possible, to get to this magical mythical 60% infection as soon as possible, so that it would be all over well before that date. Indeed, his infamous Superman speech in early February indicates that he envisaged a negotiating benefit from this, in that Britain would be over it all and functioning normally while negotiating with wimpish countries still distracted by trying to protect their citizens from infection.

The result was that England in particular was very badly hit, much more so than Sweden. Then on about 18th March it began to dawn on Johnson that he was making a catastrophic mistake, although it still took him another week to lock down. By that time the virus was so all-pervasive that the mortality figures soon became absolutely appalling. And then he sat on his hands during the lockdown without making rigorous preparations for a managed opening-up, and he has opened up too soon and without a functioning test trace isolate operation in place. So the death toll continues to mount.

Scotland finally realised what was going on, diverged from the English suicide pact, got a functioning test trace isolate system up and running, and opened up more slowly (though still allowing the pubs to open too soon I think). But thousands of people died needlessly.
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Old Yesterday, 09:45 AM   #1673
dann
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Were the ICUs overwhelmed in the UK the way they were in Sweden? Did they have the same kind of long-distance triage combined with palliative care for residents of nursing homes?
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Yesterday, 10:00 AM   #1674
dann
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Monday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 9, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 571 (5,766) 649* 34 *since Friday according to SVT.se.
Denmark: 107 (620) 373* 2 *since Friday
Finland: 60 (333) 17 1
Norway: 47 (256) 23 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 4 1
Iceland has 114 active cases, Faroe Islands 88, New Zealand 21.
The Faroe Islands have 900+ in quarantine, 1.648 are awaiting results from tests carried out Aug. 8 and 9.

Denmark:
Nye krav om mundbind i offentlig transport gælder nu seks kommuner (TV2.dk, Aug. 10, 2020)
Face masks now mandatory on public transport in six municipalities - And they encourage using it in shops and malls as well.

Én coronasmittet smitter lige nu 1,4 nye personer (TV2.dk, Aug. 10, 2020)
R0 now 1,4
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Yesterday, 10:43 AM   #1675
dann
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Originally Posted by Clutch Cargo View Post
Originally Posted by dann View Post
Norway transfers some of the Swedish regions that they had opened up for from status green back to red because their levels of infection are too high again.
This again proves that no one (really) knows what is going on. Everyone is guessing. ...

This must be the reason wht Norway decided to close its borders for people from Scania:

Quote:
SOPHIE STIGFUR - 15:30
Antalet bekräftade coronafall har ökat i Skåne den senaste veckan, rapporterar P4 Malmöhus.
Regionstyrelsens ordförande, Carl-Johan Sonesson (M), säger nu till kanalen att han vill att regeringen funderar över att ta tillbaka de reserestriktioner som rådde i Sverige före midsommar.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (Aftonbladet.se, Aug. 10, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Yesterday, 11:01 AM   #1676
Rolfe
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Were the ICUs overwhelmed in the UK the way they were in Sweden? Did they have the same kind of long-distance triage combined with palliative care for residents of nursing homes?

Officially no, but there were some nasty incidents, like doctors trying to get blanket "do not resuscitate" forms signed for elderly and handicapped people. There was a public outrage about this though.
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Old Today, 12:11 AM   #1677
dann
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Much like when they rationalized the death toll with the argument, 'Well, they were going to die soon anyway,' most Swedes also seem to have accepted palliative care for nursing home residents with the argument, 'Well, they wouldn't want to die in ICUs on ventilators. It's better for them to die where they are.'
I guess these 100+-year-olds would have been left to die 'for their own good': Centenarians recovering from the virus (BBC News, May 30, 2020)


ETA: Can you help us out here?
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old Today, 12:56 AM   #1678
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
All this talk about Sweden achieveing something called "herd immunity", as if that was a desirable goal. You need to ask what the situation of the country with respect to the virus will be when that goal is achieved. You will find that this is not a good situation at all, because what they are describing is not what is normally understood by the term herd immunity.
Correct me if I am wrong but isn't the theory (or proven fact) all about those who are immune NOT INFECTING OTHERS? When Europeans went to the new world they were immune to many diseases but it didn't prevent them from either 1. themselves infecting the indigenous population or 2. bringing with them the diseases to which they were immune?.
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Old Today, 02:06 AM   #1679
Gavin
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
You really don't want to learn, do you?! To prove your hypothesis, it might have been a good idea to include the number of cases in nursing homes in those states. However, that might not even work because one of your numbers is completely useless and proves one thing only:
Sweden, Coronavirus Cases: 82,323; Deaths: 5,763
Georgia, Coronavirus Cases: 216,596; Deaths: 4,199

And you could know this without me having to tell you. You would just have had to combine the claims from the sources you have quoted from already in this thread.
Consider this: What did the Swedish doctor tell you about 'herd immunity' in Stockholm? How many people live in Stockholm? How does that number compare to your number of coronavirus cases?
It's amazing, isn't it?!
The only thing your numbers tell us is that they did some testing in Georgia, apparently, and in Sweden they only tested a small fraction of the population. (So did Georgia, I guess, but apparently its fraction of people tested was much larger than Sweden's.)
Georgia was the only state on my list with less deaths Stockholm as well as the rest of Sweden has flattened the curve and why he is saying they reached herd immunity I would rather take a locale doctor’s opinion then someone not in the medical field.


[/quote]

So you are claiming that schools didn't lock down? That Japan didn't cancel the Olympics?

Don't let the title of this article fool you. The three C's are not unimportant, but ... :


How do you think that works in real life? In particular, how do you think it affects the owners of bars, discos and concert venues when people don't show up because they have been made aware of the dangers of doing so? And why do you think Sweden is so proud of its strategy?

In Denmark, discos and concert venues are still locked down - and I hope it remains so until the vaccine is there - but the owners are compensated. If I were the owner of a disco, I'd much prefer that situation instead of trying to keep it open as diminishing numbers of people show up because they are aware that going to the disco is a super-spreader event, which, I guess, was the reason why they remained open in Sweden: It would be in accordance with Sweden's attempts to spread the virus among young people to achieve herd immunity while conveniently forgetting that the same young people would go back to their jobs as care workers in nursing homes the next day!

As they write in ScienceMag:

Quote:
So let's look at some of the things, apart from the three C's, that Japan did (and still does) and Sweden didn't do:
1) Lockdown of schools
2) Contact tracing
3) Wearing face masks
And let's look at some of the things that Sweden did (and still does) but Japan didn't (still doesn't) do:
1) Claiming that children don't spread the virus.
2) Claiming that asymptomatic virus transmission is unimportant (i.e. telling people to stay at home if they have symptoms and assume that they aren't infected if they are asymptomatic)
3) Telling people early on (in March!!!) that there was no reason to worry: It was already peaking and would soon go away.

Notice that Sweden to this day still doesn't do contact tracing! Instead, it is left up to people to tell their contacts that they may be infected. This is also the reason why Swedish epidemiologists don't know **** about how the virus spreads in the country, which, of course, enables them to remain ignorant of the spread that takes place in schools: Most children aren't affected much, so outbreak at schools only become apparent when teachers are infected, and even in those cases Sweden doesn't contact trace.
The report, which has not been peer-reviewed, found that during the period of February 24 to June 14, there were 1,124 confirmed cases of COVID-19 among children in Sweden, around 0.05% of the total number of children aged 1-19.
Finland recorded 584 cases in the same period, also equivalent to around 0.05%.
“In conclusion, (the) closure or not of schools had no measurable direct impact on the number of laboratory confirmed cases in school-aged children in Finland or Sweden,” the agencies said in the report, published last week.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24G2IS
They also flatten curve

https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/22...g-coronavirus/

In fact, the report found that it was extremely rare for children to bring an infection into the home. It found that just 2.7 percent of potential “index cases” (first case in the home) were under age 20. Imagine twisting that into a call for school closures. It’s astonishingly reckless.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/22...g-coronavirus/

Denmark only had all on voluntary basis and only had Cases: 14,815 Deaths: 620

Quote:
Depending on when you begin to tackle the pandemic, there are ways to do so without lockdowns. Japan did it without locking down private businesses, for instance. Iceland and New Zealand didn't lock down much. However, if the infection has already reached a high level - and in particular if you don't have the facilities to start doing TeTrIs fast, lockdowns are the only measure that can hammer down the virus. Sweden, however, didn't do any of those things.
Lockdowns have worked everywhere - except in the places where governments had an ambiguous attitude to them and therefore hesitated and switched from 'herd immunity' strategy to lockdowns and back again like in the UK, i.e. in the countries that Sweden prefers to compare itself with.

And I almost forgot this: Border enforcement measures to prevent the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, July 24, 2020) But Swedes don't think that this measure has any effect. Tegnell has told them that there is no scientific evidence that it does.
there are ways to do so without lockdowns was the whole point and their schools have been opened since the first of June and they have had no problems school closure was the only change from Sweden besides the closed borders
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Old Today, 02:33 AM   #1680
Ulf Nereng
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All of the new cases we've had in the past two weeks (Norway) have been linked to travel to red and yellow countries, sometimes followed by going to parties upon returning home. Plus the outbreak on the Hurtigruten cruiseline! One of their ships that is doing trips to the Arctic took on a bunch of sailors from the Phillipines and decided to "quarantine onboard" which is apparently allowed for ships that sail in international waters. One of them became symptomatic, something they decided to keep quiet for two days while visiting over sixty coastal communities along the Norwegian coast. We truly have a pandumbic as well as a pandemic!
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