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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 19th September 2022, 10:28 AM   #1441
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
An irrational decision is, by definition, one that has no rational behind it: it could literally be ANYTHING and EVERYTHING. You cannot consider literally everything in your contingency plans.
To speculate that the other side may go irrational and then predict that the irrational move would be to nuke, with such high specificity, Sebastopol, is oxymoronic.
I don't think the problem is as intractable as you portray. We don't have to account for every single possible branching thought process that might lead to an irrational decision. Use of weapons is still use of weapons. Either your enemy is going to escalate in some expected way, in rational response to certain strategic goals and constraints you understand them to have...

... Or they're going to escalate in some unexpected way. Maybe they have different goals than you thought. Maybe you were misled about their constraints. Maybe they're flat-out crazy. Regardless, their escalation is going to fall into some combination of fairly basic patterns. It's either going to be large scale, or more narrowly-targeted. It's either going to be along the same strategic lines as their previous efforts, or go off in some other direction.

"What if the enemy surprise nukes a city, and then claims every other city in the region as a nuclear hostage if their demands aren't met?" Could be Sevastopol. Could be Donetsk. Could be Odessa. Could be Kiev. So you start making a list of cities, most important to least important. And you make sure to beef up your air defenses around your cities, in order of importance. You'd be doing this anyway, so your plans are probably aligned with certain unexpected contingencies already. And you come up with a response plan if your enemy actually does initiate a nuclear terrorism strategy. You don't have to predict Sevastopol specifically. You'd do roughly the same thing regardless of which city they actually went after.
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Old 19th September 2022, 10:56 AM   #1442
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Are there now serious doubts that MAD worked for decades during the cold war? Or what has fundamentally changed to create those doubts now?

The combined West is paying a lot to contain Russia now, suggesting it is understood that Russia will not stop after Ukraine. Love for Ukraine never was so huge we'd be ready to be inconvenienced for them. Would USA idly watch the disappearance of a friendly Western/Central Europe and allow Russia to call the shots all while pretending to stand up to China?
Obviously it worked during the Cold War. What has fundamentally changed is during the Cold War the communist party was in charge of the USSR. While the Premier of the USSR wielded immense power it was not absolute power. They had a functioning government who, I believe, could stop a first strike if the Premier went nuts and decided one day to launch nukes. Russia today is a dictatorship, while they have a parliament it seems to be that they are just there for show. If Putin ordered a nuclear strike on Ukraine our only hope would be that somewhere down the chain, someone disobeys orders, or that their weapon malfunctions.

If Russia does deploy nuclear weapons on Ukraine, then NATO only has two rational choices IMO.

1) A limited nuclear strike. And by limited I mean we only target their military, not population centers. Try and time a strike by B-2's on Russian ground missile targets with attack subs that are almost certainly shadowing all Russian boomers right now. Nuclear torpedoes to be sure they are destroyed. Follow up with in bound missiles on land sites to be as sure as possible Russia's nuclear weapons are as neutralized as possible. Likely they get a few off anyway. The worldwide economy is wrecked for a few year or more, and were probably looking at 10 million+ dead.

2) A total and complete embargo (Edit: military blockade) with Russia. We warn them that any attack on a NATO country will result in total nuclear annihilation. We give all Russian trading partners 30 days to comply or we are at war with them, and we will sink their naval vessels, cargo ships (and we wont be fooled by vessels with flags of convenience), bomb pipelines, railways, and highways between Russia and China/India. This probably leads to nuclear war anyways.

Anything less than that and we've just signaled to Russia that they can do whatever they want by threating nuclear strikes. They'll invade Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, Finland and possibly even Germany. Resist Russia and they threaten more nuclear strikes.

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Old 19th September 2022, 10:59 AM   #1443
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I saw satellite images showing that the Russians have filled the canal at the Nova Kakhovka dam, where there was one of the three bridges across the Dniepr which the Ukrainians had destroyed, with gravel and debris, so it can be crossed. This will be difficult, or actually rather impossible, to destroy entirely with further artillery or missile strikes, so a good move by the Russians. I am pretty sure the AFU do not want to breach the dam.
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:00 AM   #1444
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Another thing that has changed is that weapons have gotten a lot more accurate. This means that it is no longer necessary to throw a monstrous city-killer just to try to destroy some hardened target near the city.

The goal is not to build the biggest possible bomb. The goal is to build the smallest possible bomb that gets the job done, and to make it as accurate as possible so the bomb can be even smaller and still get the job done. Bombs like that now exist.
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:10 AM   #1445
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Once you figure in sheer irrationality, literally everything that's physically possible suddenly becomes an option you need to consider. Not a very rational thing to do.
I could turn this around: What if, *gasp* the US president (or the French, or the British PM, or...) has an irrational moment, and decides to nuke, say, Estonia, just to confuse everybody? Hmm hmmm!!

I.o.w.: You make up stuff. Rejected.
There's a difference between not being rational and being completely insane.

What did I make up exactly? I haven't claimed that they are going to do it. The thread had turned to the idea of MAD, with Russia throwing the first nukes. I suggested they wouldn't try to end the world, but may go for a limited use on occupied Russian territory. Why did that attract your ire?

Need I remind you that Russia have been carrying out mass shelling of civilian centres? Did you somehow miss the last several months of needless killing, or the complete decimation of Mariupol?

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
An irrational decision is, by definition, one that has no rational behind it: it could literally be ANYTHING and EVERYTHING. You cannot consider literally everything in your contingency plans.
To speculate that the other side may go irrational and then predict that the irrational move would be to nuke, with such high specificity, Sebastopol, is oxymoronic.
What part of the world could Russia nuke without risking a nuclear response?

Russian territory.

Why would Russia nuke its own territory?

If they lose part of their territory and are not likely to get it back, in order to forestall any further incursions from their enemy.

What part of Russian territory is most under threat of being occupied?

The part that's surrounded by occupied Ukrainian territory, which the Ukrainians are, more than likely, going to try to retake, i.e. Sevastopol.

It would 1) punish any captured Russian soldiers for not holding the port, 2) punish the Ukrainian military who capture it and 3) warn them not to take any more Russian territory.

But, like I said, I don't consider it likely. It just made more sense than them trying to blow 'EVERYTHING' up.
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:10 AM   #1446
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Obviously it worked during the Cold War. What has fundamentally changed is during the Cold War the communist party was in charge of the USSR. While the Premier of the USSR wielded immense power it was not absolute power. They had a functioning government who, I believe, could stop a first strike if the Premier went nuts and decided one day to launch nukes. Russia today is a dictatorship, while they have a parliament it seems to be that they are just there for show. If Putin ordered a nuclear strike on Ukraine our only hope would be that somewhere down the chain, someone disobeys orders
I agree obviously that the state Duma is not a factor.
It's difficult to say how much power the politburo had over the leaders - Khrushchev and Brezhnev seem to have been pretty pre-eminent for at least parts of their reigns, having sidelined the few figures approaching their size. It's not obvious that Putin has a much tighter control over the military command particularly the nuclear force.

Certainly, the MAD doctrine did not, could not depend on the hopeful premise that no leader of the dictatorship would have dictatorial powers.
Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
, or that their weapon malfunctions.
...
Peter Zeihan raises the interesting question: What if Russia tries to launch a (limited) strike with strategic nukes (say, try to flatten Berlin and Warsaw to discourage the populations of Europe) but fails - and our intelligence services know they try? How to respond to that? oO
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:16 AM   #1447
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Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200 View Post
There's a difference between not being rational and being completely insane.

What did I make up exactly? I haven't claimed that they are going to do it. The thread had turned to the idea of MAD, with Russia throwing the first nukes. I suggested they wouldn't try to end the world, but may go for a limited use on occupied Russian territory. Why did that attract your ire?

Need I remind you that Russia have been carrying out mass shelling of civilian centres? Did you somehow miss the last several months of needless killing, or the complete decimation of Mariupol?



What part of the world could Russia nuke without risking a nuclear response?

Russian territory.

Why would Russia nuke its own territory?

If they lose part of their territory and are not likely to get it back, in order to forestall any further incursions from their enemy.

What part of Russian territory is most under threat of being occupied?

The part that's surrounded by occupied Ukrainian territory, which the Ukrainians are, more than likely, going to try to retake, i.e. Sevastopol.

It would 1) punish any captured Russian soldiers for not holding the port, 2) punish the Ukrainian military who capture it and 3) warn them not to take any more Russian territory.

But, like I said, I don't consider it likely. It just made more sense than them trying to blow 'EVERYTHING' up.
I am confused - did you mean to say that this scenario is irrational, or rational?
Also, I am confused: Do you consider Sebastopol to be part of Russia, or to not be part of Russia ("which the Ukrainians are, more than likely, going to try to retake, i.e. Sevastopol")?

I think my point is rather clear: You made that scenario up. It does not conform to any doctrine. You could literally make up any other scenario and invent reasons for it.
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:17 AM   #1448
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Another thing that has changed is that weapons have gotten a lot more accurate. This means that it is no longer necessary to throw a monstrous city-killer just to try to destroy some hardened target near the city.

The goal is not to build the biggest possible bomb. The goal is to build the smallest possible bomb that gets the job done, and to make it as accurate as possible so the bomb can be even smaller and still get the job done. Bombs like that now exist.
Fair point. Thx.
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:21 AM   #1449
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I agree obviously that the state Duma is not a factor.
It's difficult to say how much power the politburo had over the leaders - Khrushchev and Brezhnev seem to have been pretty pre-eminent for at least parts of their reigns, having sidelined the few figures approaching their size. It's not obvious that Putin has a much tighter control over the military command particularly the nuclear force.

Certainly, the MAD doctrine did not, could not depend on the hopeful premise that no leader of the dictatorship would have dictatorial powers.

Peter Zeihan raises the interesting question: What if Russia tries to launch a (limited) strike with strategic nukes (say, try to flatten Berlin and Warsaw to discourage the populations of Europe) but fails - and our intelligence services know they try? How to respond to that? oO
An attempted nuclear strike on a NATO ally only has one rational response. And thats a nuclear retaliation. Unless maybe our intelligence agencies are HIGHLY confident that none of Russia's nukes will work. Again, as I said* we target their missile sites not population centers.

*And theprestige added that our weapons are much more accurate so there is no need anyways

ETA: actually it depends on what you meant: are missiles launched and fail somehow, or that Putin ordered it, but the military refused orders?

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Old 19th September 2022, 11:24 AM   #1450
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I don't think the problem is as intractable as you portray. We don't have to account for every single possible branching thought process that might lead to an irrational decision. Use of weapons is still use of weapons. Either your enemy is going to escalate in some expected way, in rational response to certain strategic goals and constraints you understand them to have...

... Or they're going to escalate in some unexpected way. Maybe they have different goals than you thought. Maybe you were misled about their constraints. Maybe they're flat-out crazy. Regardless, their escalation is going to fall into some combination of fairly basic patterns. It's either going to be large scale, or more narrowly-targeted. It's either going to be along the same strategic lines as their previous efforts, or go off in some other direction.

"What if the enemy surprise nukes a city, and then claims every other city in the region as a nuclear hostage if their demands aren't met?" Could be Sevastopol. Could be Donetsk. Could be Odessa. Could be Kiev. So you start making a list of cities, most important to least important. And you make sure to beef up your air defenses around your cities, in order of importance. You'd be doing this anyway, so your plans are probably aligned with certain unexpected contingencies already. And you come up with a response plan if your enemy actually does initiate a nuclear terrorism strategy. You don't have to predict Sevastopol specifically. You'd do roughly the same thing regardless of which city they actually went after.
You are making a lot of sense. But all this planning is premised on the idea that the enemy will employ some kind of strategy towards reaching any positive (from their perspective) goals. Once the enemy goes actually crazy, that's where contingency planning reaches its limits. Then the only strategy is to somehow work towards getting the tools of global annihilation out of any hands that may have access to them despite going crazy. Like nuclear disarmament, or regime change. (And uhm yeah I am not insinuating any of those are remotely realistic)
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:27 AM   #1451
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
...
ETA: actually it depends on what you meant: are missiles launched and fail somehow, or that Putin ordered it, but the military refused orders?
Primarily technical failure. Insufficient maintenance, missing parts, pulled communication cables, fuel stolen... The usual problems of the Ruscist military and civil society.
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:42 AM   #1452
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Primarily technical failure. Insufficient maintenance, missing parts, pulled communication cables, fuel stolen... The usual problems of the Ruscist military and civil society.
IMO the most likely technical failure would be the bomb not going critical*. So lets say Russia sends a missile to Berlin and Warsaw, and it fails by not going critical. Thats a dirty bomb going off in their capitols. I would be shocked if Germany and Poland didn't immediately respond with airstrikes on Kaliningrad followed by an invasion even if the rest of NATO didn't join. But, most likely WW3 starts very soon afterwards.

*I'm hardly an expert but what I have seen is thats the hardest part to maintain, if the conventional explosive doesn't do exactly what its supposed to, the weapon doesn't go critical.

ETA: also this whole topic has brought up an interesting conundrum for Ukraine. Right now, Russia thinks Ukraine won't actually invade. This gives Russia a huge advantage because Ukraine must defend the entire border with Russia while the Russian Army can concentrate its forces on the front within Ukraine. So, if the current counter offensive bogs down then Ukraine could open up a new front, ie to Belgograd, but this probably greatly increases Russia's willingness to use nuclear weapons on them.

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Old 19th September 2022, 12:13 PM   #1453
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
...if the current counter offensive bogs down then Ukraine could open up a new front, ie to Belgograd, but this probably greatly increases Russia's willingness to use nuclear weapons on them.
I think the more immediate problem is that actually threatening Russian territory and population centers might fundamentally change the Russian perception of the war, and enhance morale of their troops: Suddenly, they are not merely fighting for a salary, but for the motherland.
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Old 19th September 2022, 12:40 PM   #1454
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I am confused
That much is obvious. I'm getting the sense that English isn't your first language.

Quote:
- did you mean to say that this scenario is irrational, or rational?
Destroying cities out of spite isn't rational. But they've already done as much without nukes.

'Rational/irrational' isn't a binary state, where a person is either completely 100% Vulcan or completely nuts. It's more subtle than that.

Quote:
Also, I am confused: Do you consider Sebastopol to be part of Russia, or to not be part of Russia ("which the Ukrainians are, more than likely, going to try to retake, i.e. Sevastopol")?
The whole sentence was "The part that's surrounded by occupied Ukrainian territory, which the Ukrainians are, more than likely, going to try to retake, i.e. Sevastopol."

Perhaps it would be easier to understand if I add parentheses (which should be unneccesary, but many people don't seem to understand commas), in which case it would be:

"The part that's surrounded by occupied Ukrainian territory (which the Ukrainians are, more than likely, going to try to retake), i.e. Sevastopol."

The parentheses/commas follow "occupied Ukrainian territory", which is what their content relates to. Otherwise, I'd have put it after "The part".

Quote:
I think my point is rather clear: You made that scenario up. It does not conform to any doctrine. You could literally make up any other scenario and invent reasons for it.
Yes I can. It's speculation on an internet forum. What made you think any differently?
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Old 19th September 2022, 01:11 PM   #1455
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
Some interesting stuff from Russian analyst on the Kherson situation

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...34281126952960

To sum up, he's basically saying there can't be any kind of sweeping, fast pasted offensive in the region, as the terrain is so open - no hiding place for vehicles. As well as numerous irrigation canals that would need crossing. Instead Ukraine is using a "creeping offense" of advancing trenches combined with small infantry assault squads.

However it is no stalemate as at the end of August Ukraine was 32km from Kherson city and now it is just 20km. It sounds like there is absolutely no chance of any kind of Russian offensive in the south, they would be happy just to hold their lines until winter by the sound of it. Though even that means constant attrition and a logistical nightmare.

I suppose Russia is still in a better position in the south than in the east, where it is desperately slinging in prisoners, mercenaries and the peasant levy into the gaps.
I disagree. Russia needs to hold Kherson, so it has had to keep putting troops into an area where they are now using Mi-26 helicopters to get supplies over the river.

That's not good for logistics.
They are losing ground only slowly, but it's eating their materiel.
Remember that the Ukrainian strategy has been corrosion. And then exploiting weaknesses
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Old 19th September 2022, 01:14 PM   #1456
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Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200 View Post
That much is obvious. I'm getting the sense that English isn't your first language.
That's correct
One of my professors at the University of Georgia insisted that my written English is superior to that of pretty much all his American students. True story.

Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200 View Post
Destroying cities out of spite isn't rational. But they've already done as much without nukes.
That is debatable, and also quite beside the topic.

Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200 View Post
The whole sentence was "The part that's surrounded by occupied Ukrainian territory, which the Ukrainians are, more than likely, going to try to retake, i.e. Sevastopol."

Perhaps it would be easier to understand if I add parentheses (which should be unneccesary, but many people don't seem to understand commas), in which case it would be:

"The part that's surrounded by occupied Ukrainian territory (which the Ukrainians are, more than likely, going to try to retake), i.e. Sevastopol."

The parentheses/commas follow "occupied Ukrainian territory", which is what their content relates to. Otherwise, I'd have put it after "The part".
Still doesn't clear up whether you consider Sebastopol to be Russian or Ukrainian. I am sure my American professor would agree.

Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200 View Post
Yes I can. It's speculation on an internet forum. What made you think any differently?
LOL
What makes you think I think any differently, when I literally said that you made it up? I.e. idle speculation?
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Old 19th September 2022, 02:18 PM   #1457
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CNN Rolling talking about potential future for American tanks in Ukraine, but not now due to "issues with training, maintenance and sustainment."

I think that's how it's going to go in the long run. They're going to do basically a swap to Western equipment. Immediately following the conflict, they may wind up with a batch of equipment donated by Russia, but over time, I think they'll go Western. That's going to be tanks, sure, but alsos F-16s, I suspect.
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Old 19th September 2022, 02:24 PM   #1458
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
CNN Rolling talking about potential future for American tanks in Ukraine, but not now due to "issues with training, maintenance and sustainment."

I think that's how it's going to go in the long run. They're going to do basically a swap to Western equipment. Immediately following the conflict, they may wind up with a batch of equipment donated by Russia, but over time, I think they'll go Western. That's going to be tanks, sure, but alsos F-16s, I suspect.
I think the Ukrainians are looking at the grippen. a few weeks they put out a statement about it

Being able to land on rough runways suits them better
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Old 19th September 2022, 02:39 PM   #1459
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Probably not going to get Abrams though. It's a venerable tank, but the design is getting a little long in the tooth. Challenger 2, Leopard 2, or K-2 might be a better investment. I guess Leclerc and Ariete would also be on the table.
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Old 19th September 2022, 04:23 PM   #1460
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
CNN Rolling talking about potential future for American tanks in Ukraine, but not now due to "issues with training, maintenance and sustainment."

I think that's how it's going to go in the long run. They're going to do basically a swap to Western equipment. Immediately following the conflict, they may wind up with a batch of equipment donated by Russia, but over time, I think they'll go Western. That's going to be tanks, sure, but alsos F-16s, I suspect.
Yes, we all admire Russian generosity .
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Old 19th September 2022, 04:25 PM   #1461
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Yes, we all admire Russian generosity .
It's nice they got out of the vehicles and ran. In the failed attack on Kiev, poor Ukrainians had to hose the Orcs out of the donated vehicles.
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Old 19th September 2022, 05:47 PM   #1462
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Old 19th September 2022, 10:59 PM   #1463
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So how is that counterattack that was never going to happen doing?

Russia no longer has full control of Luhansk region after Ukraine captures village

Quote:
Small but symbolic victory in suburb of Lysychansk undermines one of Putin’s key war aims


Ukraine has recaptured a village close to the eastern city of Lysychansk, in a small but symbolic victory that means Russia no longer has full control of the Luhansk region, one of Vladimir Putin’s key war aims.

Luhansk’s governor, Serhiy Haidai, said Ukraine’s armed forces were in “complete control” of Bilohorivka. “It’s a suburb of Lysychansk. Soon we will drive these scumbags out of there with a broom,” he said. “Step by step, centimetre by centimetre, we will liberate our entire land from the invaders.”

Video footage shared on Telegram showed Ukrainian soldiers patrolling on foot down a ruined street. Russian forces had occupied all of Luhansk province for the past two and a half months. After a long and grinding battle, Ukraine’s general staff decided to retreat in July from the cities of Sievierdonetsk and Lysychansk.

Over the past 12 days, Ukrainian regiments in the north-east have mounted a stunning counteroffensive, liberating more than 300 settlements across the Kharkiv region and forcing Russian units to flee in disarray. The reclaimed area is half the size of Wales, and goes right up to the Russian border.

There were unconfirmed reports on Monday of Ukrainian troops advancing into Lysychansk. There now seems little prospect that the Kremlin will be able to take control of the whole of the Donbas, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. In March, Putin said this was the goal of his “special military operation” in Ukraine, after his failed attempt to seize the capital, Kyiv.
Pretty good actually, thanks for asking.
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Old 19th September 2022, 11:37 PM   #1464
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
So how is that counterattack that was never going to happen doing?
I think several pages upthread the idea was floated that a counter-offensive only counts as a counter-offensive if all of Ukraine's war aims are met so it won't count until Crimea, Lugansk and Donesk are back under Ukrainian control.
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Old 20th September 2022, 01:52 AM   #1465
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Live Map is reporting Ukraine hit a rally point for Orcs trying to flee across the river near Kherson. I checked FIRMS data and did correlate the Live Map to a thermal event at the location described.

The counter offensive is clearly not happening. I'm sure is was just Russian soldiers in Crimea who went up to Kherson for the weekend and were waiting for a ferry to go back after a weekend getaway.

https://liveuamap.com/

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov...;@34.2,46.7,8z
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Old 20th September 2022, 02:16 AM   #1466
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It seems that Kherson is joining the list of occupied areas where the occupying force is calling for a vote on annexation into the Russian Federation.

Is this to enable Russia to call a general mobilisation because now Russia is being attacked ?
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Old 20th September 2022, 02:25 AM   #1467
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Pretty much. That's the one danger retaking Crimea has, since Russia considers it part of Russia attacking it would give them the justification to mobilise.
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Old 20th September 2022, 02:31 AM   #1468
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Do Russian soldiers think Crimea is a part of Russia? Big question. We've seen how the Orcs behave when they're fighting for something they don't think is theirs and don't know why they're fighting for it.
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Old 20th September 2022, 02:33 AM   #1469
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
Pretty much. That's the one danger retaking Crimea has, since Russia considers it part of Russia attacking it would give them the justification to mobilise.
It would be interesting to see how Russia would respond to such a general mobilisation. Would we see millions of volunteers coming forward to enlist ? Is Russia able to significantly increase their military industrial output to provide equipment for these millions of recruits ?

Is Russia in a position to train millions of new recruits ?
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Old 20th September 2022, 02:39 AM   #1470
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General mobilization would result in an unimaginable death toll of Russians... which might suit Putin's purposes well.
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Old 20th September 2022, 02:57 AM   #1471
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All the Russians who are able and want to fight in the invasion of Ukraine are already there and it's a small number. Mobilization won't help Russia. Sending more barely trained malcontents to fight a determined enemy with strong NATO backing will not result in military success.
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Old 20th September 2022, 03:00 AM   #1472
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It would be interesting to see how Russia would respond to such a general mobilisation. Would we see millions of volunteers coming forward to enlist ? Is Russia able to significantly increase their military industrial output to provide equipment for these millions of recruits ?

Is Russia in a position to train millions of new recruits ?

To take your questions in order, no, no, and no.
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Old 20th September 2022, 03:06 AM   #1473
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
All the Russians who are able and want to fight in the invasion of Ukraine are already there and it's a small number. Mobilization won't help Russia. Sending more barely trained malcontents to fight a determined enemy with strong NATO backing will not result in military success.
There are probably many people currently in the Ukrainian military who have little military experience and training, and who wonder why they should fight to conquer these Russian-speaking and pro-Russian regions.
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Old 20th September 2022, 03:15 AM   #1474
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
There are probably many people currently in the Ukrainian military who have little military experience and training, and who wonder why they should fight to conquer these Russian-speaking and pro-Russian regions.
Doubt it, there may be very few but generally the Ukrainian army has very good morale and a clear remit to recover the territory stolen by Russia.

Remember, just because a region is Russian-speaking, it doesn't follow that it's pro-Russian and the tens of thousands of fatalities and injuries among separatist militia to pursue Putin's military fantasies may have changed public opinion.
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Old 20th September 2022, 03:21 AM   #1475
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Meanwhile morale in Russia is clearly very high:

Quote:
Draft law to criminalise refusal to take part in combat actions proposed to State Duma. Sentence up to 10 years of penal colony
https://t.me/rian_ru/178457

(link is in Russian)
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Old 20th September 2022, 03:29 AM   #1476
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Remember, just because a region is Russian-speaking, it doesn't follow that it's pro-Russian

Michel H has had such pointed out to him many, many times now. Doesn't stop him from trotting that out over and over.
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Old 20th September 2022, 03:39 AM   #1477
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These calls for immediate sham referenda on joining Russia should be contrasted with Lincoln's issuance of the preliminary Emancipation Proclamation. Lincoln had wanted to issue his proclamation in July of 1862, but was persuaded by his cabinet to wait until after a Union military victory to do so, lest his action appear to be a "last shriek of retreat." The quislings' attempts to hold illegitimate annexation votes when the Ukrainian Army is threatening to liberate large chunks of Donetsk, Lugansk, and Kherson oblasts are clearly their "last shriek[s] of retreat."
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Old 20th September 2022, 03:39 AM   #1478
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
There are probably many people currently in the Ukrainian military who have little military experience and training, and who wonder why they should fight to conquer these Russian-speaking and pro-Russian regions.
Moscow turns to prisons, psychiatric hospitals and the homeless to replenish depleted army.
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Old 20th September 2022, 04:02 AM   #1479
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From today's "clobbering list":

Originally Posted by MoD Russia
Kiev regime continues its provocations aimed at creating a possible technological disaster at Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

Over the past 24 hours, 5 artillery attacks launched at an electrical substation located near the power plant have been recorded.

A total of 24 artillery projectiles have been launched from Kiev-controlled Nikopol (Dnepropetrovsk region). One of the engineering buildings has been damaged.

AFU artillery units that had been shelling the territory of the nuclear plant are neutralised by counterfire.

The radiation environment at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant remains normal.
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Old 20th September 2022, 04:22 AM   #1480
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
From today's "clobbering list":
Are you going to respond to the criticism of the previous 'clobbering list' points, or will you just continue to uncritically spam Russian propaganda?
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