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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 26th September 2022, 07:56 PM   #2121
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The heroic Eva Bartlett (Canadian, known from her front reporting in Palestine, Syria etc) has also been observing the referendums. Here is her twitter thread about that - picture is as usual:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...852040192.html
Right. This independent international observer, the first we hear of her, she's parroting the Kremlin line on Twitter.

Twitter, of all things.

Can't your Russians arrange anything better? Anything more credible? Even pro Ukraine Twitter has the UK MOD to back it up. All you have is the Russian MOD.
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Old 26th September 2022, 08:27 PM   #2122
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The heroic Eva Bartlett (Canadian, known from her front reporting in Palestine, Syria etc) has also been observing the referendums. Here is her twitter thread about that - picture is as usual:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...852040192.html
Fascinating Wikipedia article on Eva Bartlett:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Bartlett
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Old 26th September 2022, 08:55 PM   #2123
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Originally Posted by Stylesjl View Post
Fascinating Wikipedia article on Eva Bartlett:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Bartlett

I don't know if "fascinating" is the correct word. More like "expected". If you stand up for the oppressed, don't expect the oppressors to like you.

She, like Röper, Lipp, Phillips and similar people will not be seen soon back in their "free" home countries. Too dangerous.
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Old 26th September 2022, 10:12 PM   #2124
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The heroic Eva Bartlett (Canadian, known from her front reporting in Palestine, Syria etc) has also been observing the referendums. Here is her twitter thread about that - picture is as usual:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...852040192.html
There was no referendum.

How is the shot recruiting officer doing? Still shot?
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Old 26th September 2022, 10:12 PM   #2125
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The heroic Eva Bartlett (Canadian, known from her front reporting in Palestine, Syria etc) has also been observing the referendums. Here is her twitter thread about that - picture is as usual:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...852040192.html
Who cares about observers. The whole thing is crooked from the get go.

War. A ridiculous number of displaced people. A desperate hurry. Organised by the invading force in a completely one-sided way.

Every single one of these makes the referendum illegitimate. You don't need observers to tell you that.
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Old 26th September 2022, 11:47 PM   #2126
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
I don't know if "fascinating" is the correct word. More like "expected". If you stand up for the oppressed, don't expect the oppressors to like you.

She, like Röper, Lipp, Phillips and similar people will not be seen soon back in their "free" home countries. Too dangerous.
She's a well known conspiracy theorist who uncritically parrots the Kremlin line - I guess that does make her like those other sources.

AFAIK she's perfectly entitled to go back to Canada and unlike people in Russia who dissent from the official government line she won't face censure, much less 15 years in gaol.
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Old 26th September 2022, 11:56 PM   #2127
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Adding insult to injury to the occupied territories, after the fake result of the fake referendums are announced, there will be a general call-up of military age men.

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The Ukrainian mayor of occupied Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reported on September 26 that the Kremlin instructed the Russian Melitopol occupation administration to form a volunteer battalion of 3,000 members by October 10. The Ukrainian head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, Serhiy Haidai, reported on September 26 that Russian occupiers in Svatove, Luhansk Oblast issued mobilization orders to all men in the area and that Russian authorities in annexed Luhansk will similarly mobilize all Ukrainian men.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...t-september-26
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Old 27th September 2022, 01:27 AM   #2128
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Adding insult to injury to the occupied territories, after the fake result of the fake referendums are announced, there will be a general call-up of military age men.



https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...t-september-26
Once again, following in the footsteps of Stalin .
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Old 27th September 2022, 01:36 AM   #2129
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Adding insult to injury to the occupied territories, after the fake result of the fake referendums are announced, there will be a general call-up of military age men.



https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...t-september-26
Yet another set of war crimes to add to the long list?
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Old 27th September 2022, 01:39 AM   #2130
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Russia continue to make glacial progress towards the occupation of Bakhmut.

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Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 26. A Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner elements entered the northern part of Otradivka (10 km south of Bakhmut along the T0513 highway) from the east and cut off Ukrainian forces’ access to the southern part of Otradivka
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...t-september-26

Which I suppose makes sense if you take the Russian view that Bakhmut is the key to Ukraine and taking that town/city will suddenly unlock the entire front and enable the Russian army to quickly and decisively advance.

Meanwhile to the North, it seems that the Russians are laying another masterful trap by luring Ukrainian forces to take Lyman and other towns to the north and east.
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Old 27th September 2022, 02:49 AM   #2131
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Russia continue to make glacial progress towards the occupation of Bakhmut.



https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...t-september-26

Which I suppose makes sense if you take the Russian view that Bakhmut is the key to Ukraine and taking that town/city will suddenly unlock the entire front and enable the Russian army to quickly and decisively advance.

Meanwhile to the North, it seems that the Russians are laying another masterful trap by luring Ukrainian forces to take Lyman and other towns to the north and east.
I only hope Wagner is paying dearly for taking Bakhmut.
IIRC it's been months now
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Old 27th September 2022, 02:59 AM   #2132
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I only hope Wagner is paying dearly for taking Bakhmut.
IIRC it's been months now
On that note, I poked at something upthread a bit that indicates that a lot of the cannon fodder that Wagner's using is simply surrendering to the Ukrainians. Also, yeah, something like 3 months since Russia started trying to take Bakhmut. Back then, it was part of an attempt to kettle Ukraine's forces in Severodonetsk, IIRC. Izyum's no longer under Russian control, now, though, which means that Bakhmut doesn't really serve anywhere close to as much larger strategic purpose beyond advancing the front a bit. Losing those logistics hubs up north and likely losing much more of Luhansk while they scratch away there, though, sure looks like really dumb tactics.
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Old 27th September 2022, 03:21 AM   #2133
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I only hope Wagner is paying dearly for taking Bakhmut.
IIRC it's been months now
The Wagner Group there are apparently comparatively few in number (a few thousand) but with a much greater than usual proportion of fighters. They appear to be comparatively well equipped and comparatively well motivated and continue to press towards their objective.

Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
On that note, I poked at something upthread a bit that indicates that a lot of the cannon fodder that Wagner's using is simply surrendering to the Ukrainians. Also, yeah, something like 3 months since Russia started trying to take Bakhmut. Back then, it was part of an attempt to kettle Ukraine's forces in Severodonetsk, IIRC. Izyum's no longer under Russian control, now, though, which means that Bakhmut doesn't really serve anywhere close to as much larger strategic purpose beyond advancing the front a bit. Losing those logistics hubs up north and likely losing much more of Luhansk while they scratch away there, though, sure looks like really dumb tactics.
...and the cannon fodder are not welcome back in Russia, Ukraine will have to deal with the dregs of the Russian penal system. Is this the societal equivalent of catapulting disease-ridden animal corpses into a castle under siege ?

The Wagner Group may be continuing to batter away at Bakhmut because that's what they're contracted to do. As long as they get paid, I cannot imagine they are too bothered about the overall outcome of the invasion (unless there are enormous bonuses payable) and so they'll just focus on what they're being paid to do.

Why Russia views Bakhmut to be so important is a bit of a headscratcher. If Izyum were still in Russian hands then I suppose it would be the next step towards securing the whole of the Donesk Oblast. Maybe it's just *something* where marginal Russian gains are possible and therefore they continue to plug away.

I'm not a strategic genius like Putin and his commanders so I have no idea what cunning plans they have in mind but rest assured that whatever happens and however negative it may appear for Russia, it's part of some elebenty-dimensional genius plan.
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Old 27th September 2022, 03:45 AM   #2134
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They were ordered to take Bakhmut and until they get orders otherwise are going to continue to try and take it.
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Old 27th September 2022, 04:11 AM   #2135
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Almost 100K Russians have crossed into Kazakhstan; (68K) returnees, since the new Putin conscription order.

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According to Kazakhstan's Ministry of Internal Affairs, around 98,000 Russians have entered the country since the partial suspension of operations was announced, and of those who arrived, only slightly more than 64,000 people have left the country.
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Old 27th September 2022, 04:20 AM   #2136
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A story appeared in my daily newspaper about a youth they have named as 'Ivan' who crossed from Russia into Finland with his parents in recent days by car. The parents had visas but the boy didn't. They claimed he was wanted by the militia police for having been in a demonstration against mobilisation and begged for asylum for him. The youth 'Ivan' has been granted the status of 'asylum seeker; and his mother has returned to Russia.

It could be compassion fatigue but can Russians be trusted as genuine asylum seekers, given their penchant for espionage, disinformation, encouraging fellow compatriots to complain of ill-treatment (thus inviting the wrath of Putin, as solicited by his side kick Zakharova, as an excuse to invade said country and enforce annexation) and a serf's attitude towards authority?

Sorry to be cynical but where were the mass demonstrations over the rape of Bucha or the razing of Mariupol, with an arts building sheltering ordinary families was bombed down on their heads?

Yes, the Russian militia are scary and vindictive but Russians have suddenly found a way to fight back now that the war affects them on a personal level.
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Old 27th September 2022, 04:29 AM   #2137
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
A story appeared in my daily newspaper about a youth they have named as 'Ivan' who crossed from Russia into Finland with his parents in recent days by car. The parents had visas but the boy didn't. They claimed he was wanted by the militia police for having been in a demonstration against mobilisation and begged for asylum for him. The youth 'Ivan' has been granted the status of 'asylum seeker; and his mother has returned to Russia.

It could be compassion fatigue but can Russians be trusted as genuine asylum seekers, given their penchant for espionage, disinformation, encouraging fellow compatriots to complain of ill-treatment (thus inviting the wrath of Putin, as solicited by his side kick Zakharova, as an excuse to invade said country and enforce annexation) and a serf's attitude towards authority?

Sorry to be cynical but where were the mass demonstrations over the rape of Bucha or the razing of Mariupol, with an arts building sheltering ordinary families was bombed down on their heads?

Yes, the Russian militia are scary and vindictive but Russians have suddenly found a way to fight back now that the war affects them on a personal level.
It is a terrifically difficult call. If the story is true then Ivan is clearly an asylum seeker as he faces 15 years in jail and/or conscription on his return.

If he's just an opportunist seeking to avoid the draft then that's a different kettle of fish IMO. If the two countries are on good terms then I'd see it as no different to Americans crossing into Canada to avoid the Vietnam draft but that doesn't seem to be the case.

The danger is that Ivan could be a fifth columnist and, by admitting him, Finland is creating a security issue for themselves.

My view is that I would admit him, but I'm a softy and too trusting by half.
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Old 27th September 2022, 04:34 AM   #2138
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It is a terrifically difficult call. If the story is true then Ivan is clearly an asylum seeker as he faces 15 years in jail and/or conscription on his return.

If he's just an opportunist seeking to avoid the draft then that's a different kettle of fish IMO. If the two countries are on good terms then I'd see it as no different to Americans crossing into Canada to avoid the Vietnam draft but that doesn't seem to be the case.

The danger is that Ivan could be a fifth columnist and, by admitting him, Finland is creating a security issue for themselves.

My view is that I would admit him, but I'm a softy and too trusting by half.
AIUI, they are not allowed to accept persons liable for conscription (some kind of international decree) for that reason, hence it could be 'escaping the police for demonstrating against the war' makes for a plausible 'asylum-seeking' reason. A problem emerging in Germany is that Ukrainian refugees are now distressingly coming face to face with Russian 'refugees'.
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Old 27th September 2022, 04:41 AM   #2139
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So, I think there has been a bit of chatter here about the famous "elite" 1st Guards Tank Army. Questioning how much of them is left and just how elite they are.

Well, they are now getting conscripts with no training at all. This guy is just being sent straight to the Kherson front without even "shooting practice" just "nothing". He will be on the front on the 29th.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...21960281513990

I think we can assume that whatever tattered remnants of them are left from their adventures, they are no longer remotely elite.

No idea whether they will have tourniquets issued or if they need to get tampons off their girlfriends....
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Old 27th September 2022, 05:04 AM   #2140
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This is the most disturbing thing I've seen so far.

Conscripts are being sent to the front without necessary gear.

Get tampons from your girl friends so you can plug bullet holes
We can't provide tourniquets, get some from your car's first aid kit.
etc..

https://twitter.com/epi_ona/status/1...RzkdpB-fkcnTDw
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Old 27th September 2022, 05:35 AM   #2141
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
This is the most disturbing thing I've seen so far.

Conscripts are being sent to the front without necessary gear.

Get tampons from your girl friends so you can plug bullet holes
We can't provide tourniquets, get some from your car's first aid kit.
etc..

https://twitter.com/epi_ona/status/1...RzkdpB-fkcnTDw
That sounds very far-fetched - not that the Russian army cannot provide basic equipment for conscripts, but that the staff at the recruitment centres are so open about it, that the conscripts have been allowed to film it and that the film has made it onto Twitter.

Before taking this at face value I'd like independent verification of the film. IMO it'd be comparatively easy for native Russian speaking Ukrainians to make propaganda like this and use it to undermine the already fragile Russian morale.
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Old 27th September 2022, 05:35 AM   #2142
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Originally Posted by Stylesjl View Post
Fascinating Wikipedia article on Eva Bartlett:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Bartlett
Thanks... well worth reading.
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Old 27th September 2022, 05:41 AM   #2143
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post

Sorry to be cynical but where were the mass demonstrations over the rape of Bucha or the razing of Mariupol, with an arts building sheltering ordinary families was bombed down on their heads?

Yes, the Russian militia are scary and vindictive but Russians have suddenly found a way to fight back now that the war affects them on a personal level.
Don't forget that the Russians have been fed a version of what is going on by the state media and the government. If they are even aware of the atrocities being committed in their name by the Russian army, the facts have probably been spun such that they believe it was the right thing to do.

It's quite difficult to spin a general mobilisation in a positive way, especially if the draftees are being told they have to find their own medical supplies and sleeping bags.

I am in no way surprised that it is only now that the protests are happening. The mobilisation is the first time that the reality of what has been going on in Ukraine has got through to most people in Russia.

Last edited by jeremyp; 27th September 2022 at 05:43 AM. Reason: Slight rewording in the light of the Don's point
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Old 27th September 2022, 06:01 AM   #2144
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
So, I think there has been a bit of chatter here about the famous "elite" 1st Guards Tank Army. Questioning how much of them is left and just how elite they are.

Well, they are now getting conscripts with no training at all. This guy is just being sent straight to the Kherson front without even "shooting practice" just "nothing". He will be on the front on the 29th.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...21960281513990

I think we can assume that whatever tattered remnants of them are left from their adventures, they are no longer remotely elite.

No idea whether they will have tourniquets issued or if they need to get tampons off their girlfriends....
Except for my phone autocorrect from Mobik to Mobile...

Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
"Most-depleted units"

Monday... civilian

Friday.... Mobile

Tuesday... 1st Guards Tank Army.

Ukraine has no chance when elite units can get replaced so quickly.

ETA.

I was one day out
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Old 27th September 2022, 06:11 AM   #2145
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
They were ordered to take Bakhmut and until they get orders otherwise are going to continue to try and take it.
This has got to be the longest three day war in recorded history.
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Old 27th September 2022, 06:22 AM   #2146
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
AIUI, they are not allowed to accept persons liable for conscription (some kind of international decree) for that reason, hence it could be 'escaping the police for demonstrating against the war' makes for a plausible 'asylum-seeking' reason. A problem emerging in Germany is that Ukrainian refugees are now distressingly coming face to face with Russian 'refugees'.
It's a terrible situation. Any Russian "asylum seeker" seen harassing any Ukrainian refugee should be immediately shipped back to the loving arms of Russian law enforcement.
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Old 27th September 2022, 06:33 AM   #2147
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Eva Bartlett
Conspiracist, idiot, and now a Russian stooge. You lot can keep her.
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Old 27th September 2022, 06:59 AM   #2148
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I wonder how putinophiles can think that a plebiscite held at gun point in an occupied area is going to convince anybody.
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Old 27th September 2022, 07:08 AM   #2149
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
I wonder how putinophiles can think that a plebiscite held at gun point in an occupied area is going to convince anybody.
No, you've got it all wrong.

The UkrainoNazis are so terrified to give the people in the parts of Ukraine that have been liberated a free and fair election that they planned to disrupt the referendum.

The only reason why the soldiers are there are to protect both election workers and those brave enough to take part in the referendum against the threat of UkrainoNazi violence.

The presence of the soldiers is vital to the delivery of free and fair elections and to suggest anything else simply plays into the hands of the Nazis in Kiev.
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Old 27th September 2022, 07:14 AM   #2150
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Quote:
RIA Novosti said with about 12% of votes counted, at least 97% of those cast have been in favor of joining the Russian Federation. - CNN Rolling
So... they're not even going to try? They couldn't come up with a "it's 60/40, so closer than we thought, but we reluctantly agree to respect their wishes and return them to our glorious greater Russiadom?"
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Old 27th September 2022, 07:18 AM   #2151
crescent
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
Well, they are now getting conscripts with no training at all. This guy is just being sent straight to the Kherson front without even "shooting practice" just "nothing". He will be on the front on the 29th.
"Go that way - the Ukrainians are there. You can't see them because they are dug in. When you get closer you'll be able to see them, then you can shoot them. Here's a couple of nice T-62 tanks you can use along with your infantry.

We'll be back here behind you, you'll be in plain sight of us the whole time.

If you don't move forward we'll shoot you.
If you try to signal to the Uke's than you want to surrender, we'll shoot you.
If you drop your gun or put your hands up, we'll give you a bullet in the back.
If you don't push forward with those T-62s, we'll hit them with our T-80s.

Naturally, the Ukrainians will try to kill you because they need to do that to stay alive. But if you don't try to kill them, then we'll kill you.

After all, we're all one great Slavic brotherhood!"
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Old 27th September 2022, 07:53 AM   #2152
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
So... they're not even going to try? They couldn't come up with a "it's 60/40, so closer than we thought, but we reluctantly agree to respect their wishes and return them to our glorious greater Russiadom?"
The results so far are actually 100% for annexation. They adjusted the numbers down to make it seem more realistic.
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Old 27th September 2022, 08:32 AM   #2153
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
I wonder how putinophiles can think that a plebiscite held at gun point in an occupied area is going to convince anybody.
https://twitter.com/KristoNurmis/sta...f77YgREhpnIIew

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Kristo Nurmis
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Sep 25
In other words, what mattered to the Soviets was not catering to western public opinion but making the people participate, to establish Soviet “legitimacy” on the ground.

Evidently, this legitimacy had nothing to do with the liberal notion of the consent of the governed. 11/
Part of a thread arguing with historical context that credibility is not the goal.
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Old 27th September 2022, 09:54 AM   #2154
steenkh
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
So... they're not even going to try? They couldn't come up with a "it's 60/40, so closer than we thought, but we reluctantly agree to respect their wishes and return them to our glorious greater Russiadom?"

In Russia, elections are like that. Putin thinks he would have suffered a massive defeat if he only got 90% of the votes.

He has sometimes gone to great lengths to eliminate opponents by jailing them for tax offenses, even if they could only hope to get a few percent of the votes. I remember one election where the only accepted opponent was a man who openly recommended Putin for president, and not himself!
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Old 27th September 2022, 10:09 AM   #2155
FatherLukeduke
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
In Russia, elections are like that. Putin thinks he would have suffered a massive defeat if he only got 90% of the votes.
Putin has never got 90% of the vote. His highest was in 2018 with 77% and 2012 he got 63%.

Yes, the whole thing is managed and the people running against him, especially the communists, are pretty much his pets.

However he actually like to keep things looking realistic and does genuinely win on most votes. He just makes sure there can never be any serious rival and obviously has almost complete control over the media.
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Old 27th September 2022, 11:02 AM   #2156
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Well, Russian might have actually gained ground back in Lyman. And also may be nearly cut off. Only one notable route may be left in Russian control and that's probably close enough for Ukraine to use their artillery.

Ukraine is also continuing to liberate more of the eastern side of the Oskil River.

Oh, and supposedly, there's a Telegram warning about coming mass executions of protestors in Dagestan ordered by Putin. I'm certainly not going to vouch for the accuracy of that, but would certainly prefer that it doesn't come to pass. If it does, though, it will probably add more fuel to the fire for those who want to break away from Russia, especially with Russia's armed forces greatly weakened and focused elsewhere.
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Old 27th September 2022, 11:18 AM   #2157
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Well, Russian might have actually gained ground back in Lyman. And also may be nearly cut off. Only one notable route may be left in Russian control and that's probably close enough for Ukraine to use their artillery.

Ukraine is also continuing to liberate more of the eastern side of the Oskil River.
Not seeing where Russia has taken back some of Lyman. Looks like their only route of escape now is one bridge.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-sep...pianskvuzlovyi

Also looks like Ukraine has secured the part of Kupiansk east of the Oskil river. Doesn't appear to be really any natural obstacles east of there in the rest of Ukraine.
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Old 27th September 2022, 11:33 AM   #2158
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Not seeing where Russia has taken back some of Lyman. Looks like their only route of escape now is one bridge.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-sep...pianskvuzlovyi

Also looks like Ukraine has secured the part of Kupiansk east of the Oskil river. Doesn't appear to be really any natural obstacles east of there in the rest of Ukraine.
Ukraine has also crossed the Siversky Donestk River somewhere south east of Lyman (around Hryhorivka) and are expanding that bridgehead.

Pro-Ukrainian sources have so far been over-optimistic as to how quickly Ukraine can take Lyman. But they are clearly making real progress at cutting it off. A day or two at the most before the total cut off of RU forces in Lyman. Russia can't seem to freeze up that Northeast front.
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Old 27th September 2022, 12:11 PM   #2159
Aridas
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Not seeing where Russia has taken back some of Lyman. Looks like their only route of escape now is one bridge.
In Lyman itself, supposedly. When it comes to areas with fierce fighting, though, a tug of war situation isn't exactly unthinkable, so it's questionable how much that actually matters in the larger picture. Surrounding areas are being liberated at a significant rate, though, which definitely does matter to the larger picture.
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Old 27th September 2022, 12:49 PM   #2160
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
I wonder how putinophiles can think that a plebiscite held at gun point in an occupied area is going to convince anybody.
I don't think even Putin thinks anyone believes the referendums are real. It's a legal maneuver to justify general mobilization. He needs to pretend he's defending the mother land.
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