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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 28th September 2022, 06:02 AM   #2201
jeremyp
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Because that's the point of the UNSC. Russia is a major nuclear power. Not having them on the UNSC would be worse than having them there. Even now.

Besides, removing them is not actually a critical need right now.
I was going to say "that remains to be seen", but, on reflection, I really hope not.

Anyway, if the nuclear arsenal is in the same state as the surface fleet, "major" is probably not an appropriate adjective, but, of course, if even one of their ICBMs works, it will be a catastrophe for humanity.
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:21 AM   #2202
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Hmm. US warns all citizens to "leave Russia now", and recommends no travel to Russia. Apparently even those with dual citizenship are considered viable for conscription.

Where else have we seen a "Get out now!" edict for Americans? Afghanistan, Saigon? But I don't think we've seen anything on this scale before.
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:26 AM   #2203
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
Hmm. US warns all citizens to "leave Russia now", and recommends no travel to Russia.
I'm rather surprised to find there were any Americans in Russia at this point -- surely the sensible ones would have left long ago?
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:27 AM   #2204
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Heh. At this point I'm kind of surprised it's not a "Still in Russia? Dumbass." edict.
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:32 AM   #2205
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I'm rather surprised to find there were any Americans in Russia at this point -- surely the sensible ones would have left long ago?
Yes, no, maybe....

A similar message was sent to UK nationals in Ukraine in February/March and while there were many Brits who were there temporarily, there were others who had been there for years, decades even and had a life in Ukraine and little or no ties to the UK.

The same is doubtless true for some US citizens in Russia. They've been there for a long time, their whole lives are there, they have nowhere to go to if they leave Russia, they may not even be able to leave Russia.
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:34 AM   #2206
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Hell, some Americans won't even get out of the way of a catastrophic hurricane they can see coming.
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:34 AM   #2207
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I thought that recommendation went out some time ago, did they add something like, "Seriously, we really mean it this time, get out now!"
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:47 AM   #2208
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I went for a run today and was musing on the war to date and I think I've worked out Russia's plan
Two words

Human wave
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:55 AM   #2209
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Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi View Post
Two words

Human wave
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Old 28th September 2022, 07:07 AM   #2210
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I like how the orcs are putting out partial results and "counting" still continues. They've faked this "referendum" pretty well. Ukraine should launch an artillery attack as soon as the "results" are posted.

I just heard that Ukraine has already started to capture some of the new orc conscripts. The Ukrainians are getting supply their orc prisoners with basic health and sanitation items than the Russians are.
I think you're saying "The Ukrainians are giving their Russian prisoners of war better health and sanitation than the Russian army was." Am I correct?
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Old 28th September 2022, 07:15 AM   #2211
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Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi View Post
Two words

Human wave
Yup.

If it costs Russia $1k to outfit and (fail to) train a soldier and it costs Ukraine several times that to host a POW, maybe they're hoping to overwhelm Ukraine.
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Old 28th September 2022, 07:32 AM   #2212
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yup.

If it costs Russia $1k to outfit and (fail to) train a soldier and it costs Ukraine several times that to host a POW, maybe they're hoping to overwhelm Ukraine.
Just looking at the footage from the border crossings and it looks like Putin is trying to destabilise all of his neighbours with a refugee crisis
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Old 28th September 2022, 07:40 AM   #2213
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I'm rather surprised to find there were any Americans in Russia at this point -- surely the sensible ones would have left long ago?
I know a couple that are still there, and they are dual citizens. They do have their exit tickets booked since a long time ago. They spend summers in Moscow and winters in Florida.

I think a lot of the Americans that are still there fall into the dual citizen category.
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:00 AM   #2214
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If Russia used a nuke, even a battlefield nuke, would the West carry out a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear bases? Judging by the state of Russia's conventional armed forces, it might well succeed, but what a gamble.

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Old 28th September 2022, 08:05 AM   #2215
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Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi View Post
Two words

Human wave
Probably more like meat shield.
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:06 AM   #2216
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Originally Posted by Ian Osborne View Post
If Russia used a nuke, even a battlefield nuke, would the West carry out a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear bases? Judging by the state of Russia's conventional armed forces, it might well succeed, but what a gamble.

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A preemptive strike on nuclear bases is the textbook inciting incident for a MAD exchange. Attempting to eliminate a nation's nuclear deterrent is exactly what MAD is supposed to prevent.
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:28 AM   #2217
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about the devastation to the planet following a nuclear attack by Russia:

since 1945, over 2,100 nuclear detonations have occurred, with a total yield of over 510 Megatons (or roughly 1,000x the power of an average warhead).

and yet we are still here, and there is no nuclear winter.

Getting hit by a nuke would suck for everyone involved, and everyone downwind. But it would require an all-out nuclear exchange between Russia and USA to cause irreparable harm.
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:36 AM   #2218
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I imagine the folks at ground zero would feel somewhat differently about that, were they not vaporized.
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:38 AM   #2219
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
A preemptive strike on nuclear bases is the textbook inciting incident for a MAD exchange. Attempting to eliminate a nation's nuclear deterrent is exactly what MAD is supposed to prevent.
Interesting interview here with the former commander of the UK & NATO Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Forces.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opini...don/index.html

In his opinion its likely that Biden has notified Putin that if he moves his tactical nuclear delivery systems to the Ukraine theater that, A) we'll know, and B) we will destroy them. And that it likely wouldn't get to a "MAD" level event.
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:38 AM   #2220
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
about the devastation to the planet following a nuclear attack by Russia:

since 1945, over 2,100 nuclear detonations have occurred, with a total yield of over 510 Megatons (or roughly 1,000x the power of an average warhead).

and yet we are still here, and there is no nuclear winter.

Getting hit by a nuke would suck for everyone involved, and everyone downwind. But it would require an all-out nuclear exchange between Russia and USA to cause irreparable harm.
Many of those detonations were underground though (Daddy Don used to have to retrieve instruments from tunnels during his time at the Nevada Test Site).
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:42 AM   #2221
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
about the devastation to the planet following a nuclear attack by Russia:

since 1945, over 2,100 nuclear detonations have occurred, with a total yield of over 510 Megatons (or roughly 1,000x the power of an average warhead).

and yet we are still here, and there is no nuclear winter.

Getting hit by a nuke would suck for everyone involved, and everyone downwind. But it would require an all-out nuclear exchange between Russia and USA to cause irreparable harm.
Yes, but thats over decades not all at once, which helps spread things out. And since 1963 the vast majority of tests have been done underground, or undersea.

Its not the fallout that will kill the most people, its the crop failures.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nuclear...-deaths-study/

Ninja'd by a tabby cat!
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:45 AM   #2222
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Originally Posted by Ian Osborne View Post
If Russia used a nuke, even a battlefield nuke, would the West carry out a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear bases? Judging by the state of Russia's conventional armed forces, it might well succeed, but what a gamble.
I strongly doubt that the West would respond with a nuclear strike if Russia used tactical nukes in Ukraine. Unless it was Russia's intention to end the world as we know it, the escalated conventional response from the West would be sufficient to end the Russian Federation, and their remaining nukes would be taken from them.

I think there's no question that the West is sufficiently powerful to swat Russia into oblivion without using nukes... if sufficiently provoked, of course. Putin, as idiotic as he can be at times, fully knows this.
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:53 AM   #2223
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
I imagine the folks at ground zero would feel somewhat differently about that, were they not vaporized.
What's your point? We should not bomb anything, ever, because the people on the receiving end won't enjoy it?
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Old 28th September 2022, 09:19 AM   #2224
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
Hmm. US warns all citizens to "leave Russia now", and recommends no travel to Russia. Apparently even those with dual citizenship are considered viable for conscription.

Where else have we seen a "Get out now!" edict for Americans? Afghanistan, Saigon? But I don't think we've seen anything on this scale before.
My god, if Steven Segal is conscripted he will waddle his way to the lines and totally bullshido his way through the Western forces!
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Old 28th September 2022, 09:22 AM   #2225
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Originally Posted by autumn1971 View Post
My god, if Steven Segal is conscripted he will waddle his way to the lines and totally bullshido his way through the Western forces!
He's been a bullshidder for years, don't see this as being much of a change
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Old 28th September 2022, 09:59 AM   #2226
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Originally Posted by Hellbound View Post
He's been a bullshidder for years, don't see this as being much of a change
This time they'll be real people with real guns who really know how to use them pointed at Segal.
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Old 28th September 2022, 09:59 AM   #2227
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Lyman's likely cut off, now. Ukraine's tactics are far more suited to actually encircling the enemy, by the look of it.
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Old 28th September 2022, 10:12 AM   #2228
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
This time they'll be real people with real guns who really know how to use them pointed at Segal.
I'm Hellbound, and I approve this message.
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Old 28th September 2022, 10:23 AM   #2229
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Somebody here has mused about long range missile strikes on targets in Russia.

Bad idea. That would reunite ordinary Russians. We'd be facing a new Great Patriotic War.

Another thought that's been worrying me, and undoubtedly others: If pre-2014 borders are reestablished, will that bring peace, or just a prolonged struggle at the frontier? That would unavoidably entail missile strikes on each nation's interior, and not just tactically. How long might that go on?
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Old 28th September 2022, 10:23 AM   #2230
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Many of those detonations were underground though (Daddy Don used to have to retrieve instruments from tunnels during his time at the Nevada Test Site).
Furthermore the above ground ones were not simultaneous so the amount of global dimming at any given time was small. Most of the above ground explosions were also fission not the much more powerful fusion bombs that could fly around in a nuclear exchange.
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Old 28th September 2022, 10:27 AM   #2231
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I have to wonder if Edward Snowden is rethinking that Russian citizenship he was just awarded about now.
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Old 28th September 2022, 10:30 AM   #2232
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Lyman's likely cut off, now. Ukraine's tactics are far more suited to actually encircling the enemy, by the look of it.
The UAF did a lot of the prep work yesterday, and Zelensky hinted at good things to be revealed. Lyman is a key GLOC for the region, so it's worth getting now rather than later.
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Old 28th September 2022, 10:52 AM   #2233
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Prior to February, you might have thought that encircling a strategic nexus would expose the encircling troops to highly damaging flank attacks from enemy units held in reserve against such contingencies. Maybe even devastating pincer movements from enemy reserves and a coordinated sortie by the encircled units themselves.
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Old 28th September 2022, 11:11 AM   #2234
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Prior to February, you might have thought that encircling a strategic nexus would expose the encircling troops to highly damaging flank attacks from enemy units held in reserve against such contingencies. Maybe even devastating pincer movements from enemy reserves and a coordinated sortie by the encircled units themselves.
With respect to Lyman, this has been in motion for several days; the AFU owns the west, and has been taking swaths of territory to the north and south. If they were very thin on the ground, that'd be a different story. I wonder if this will shake any Wagner goons loose from Bakhmut in a counter-attack, though.
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Old 28th September 2022, 11:28 AM   #2235
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
I have to wonder if Edward Snowden is rethinking that Russian citizenship he was just awarded about now.
Doubtful, but maybe later if Putin expands the draft pool. Even then, Snowden is way too valuable for the King to waste as cannon fodder. And Mr "Speaking Truth to Power" has proven he knows exactly when to keep his mouth shut.
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Old 28th September 2022, 11:33 AM   #2236
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Prior to February, you might have thought that encircling a strategic nexus would expose the encircling troops to highly damaging flank attacks from enemy units held in reserve against such contingencies. Maybe even devastating pincer movements from enemy reserves and a coordinated sortie by the encircled units themselves.
Prior to February my opinion of the Russian Army would've been somewhat higher than it is now. I don't believe they have much capability left to maneuver against an encirclement or adapt to a changing battlefield or even cooperate between Russia's widely disparate forces. Their best tactic now most likely is to dig in at every town and make the AFU go door to door with infantry to take it back, because I doubt they will want to level any of their own towns with artillery. That of course hinges on a bunch of conscripts willing to fight which is rather doubtful.
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Old 28th September 2022, 11:41 AM   #2237
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The US is sending 18 more HIMARS to Ukraine, although they won't be dispatched immediately.

From CNN:
The US Department of Defense announced an additional $1.1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, meaning the money will be spent to manufacture and provide new weapons to Ukraine. These weapons will not come directly from pre-existing US stocks of weapons.

Eighteen High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and “associated ammunitions,” are included in the package, the release states.

The package also includes 150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles, 40 trucks and 80 trailers to “transport heavy equipment,” additional radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems, among other items.
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Old 28th September 2022, 11:53 AM   #2238
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
The US is sending 18 more HIMARS to Ukraine, although they won't be dispatched immediately.

From CNN:
The US Department of Defense announced an additional $1.1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, meaning the money will be spent to manufacture and provide new weapons to Ukraine. These weapons will not come directly from pre-existing US stocks of weapons.

Eighteen High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and “associated ammunitions,” are included in the package, the release states.

The package also includes 150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles, 40 trucks and 80 trailers to “transport heavy equipment,” additional radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems, among other items.
It's going to get ugly quick in the spring, when those 18 HIMARS all start operating at once.

Also, I like how one of the big educational things in this war, for lay observers, is the importance of trucks.
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Old 28th September 2022, 12:11 PM   #2239
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's going to get ugly quick in the spring, when those 18 HIMARS all start operating at once.

Also, I like how one of the big educational things in this war, for lay observers, is the importance of trucks.
Let us not forget that early in the war, the Russian trucks could not perform due to lack of rotation on their truck tires.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/r...es-188142.html
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Old 28th September 2022, 12:13 PM   #2240
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Man, the Russian Federation's military readiness is just fractally bad. The more you zoom in, the more you see the same awfulness repeated at every scale.
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