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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 29th September 2022, 01:53 AM   #2281
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
Why should the ballots for a vote in Ukraine be held at the Russian embassy?
Same reason journalists need to go to the Saudi embassy to pick up marriage papers
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:53 AM   #2282
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-draft/671541/



This is a good interview with a tech executive who got out before conscription. The good news is that the people leaving are the same people driving what's left of the Russian economy. Sanctions and the economic drivers fleeing, should, at least in theory hasten Russian economic collapse. Economic collapse in Russia will result in military collapse for their forces outside of Russia in occupied Ukraine.
I'm sure a Russophile would simply dismiss that interview as the rantings of a traitor who has abandoned Mother Russia at her time of need. We do need to be careful about reading too much into the opinions of the anti-war elite, they likely do not reflect the opinions of the majority or Russians who are still firmly behind Putin and the Special Military Operation.

The loss of a small number of relatively high value individuals may not really affect the Russian economy so much. Russia has a petrochemical economy and even though they're not selling to Europe, high wholesale prices means they're still earning significant amounts through sales to the rest of the world and their cash pile is still enormous. Even taking into account the funds frozen by the West, they have enough to prosecute the war for a significant period.

Don't get me wrong, any bad news for Russia is welcome, but this kind of thing is likely a rounding error in the wider scheme of the economic war.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:01 AM   #2283
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
No, I think that if Russia used nukes in Ukraine (and I don't think they will), the world would unite against them even more than they have already. The world would escalate all of their responses -- military, diplomatic, and economic -- to defeat Russia with the intention of keeping this crap from happening again.



But I don't think even Putin is foolish enough to start throwing nukes around.
I don't think they will either, but I didn't really believe they'd invade. But in this what-if, Russia uses battlefield nukes in Ukraine and the world condemns it. What now?

It's one thing to say we unite to act and make sure this doesn't happen again, but what do you imagine we actually do? If Russia is directly attacked it's been ready to respond with strategic nukes for decades. So that option is game over. If conventional forces join up with the Ukrainians, they can roll right over the invading Russian conventional forces but what's to stop Russia countering that by lobbing in more battlefield nukes?
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:09 AM   #2284
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
I don't think they will either, but I didn't really believe they'd invade. But in this what-if, Russia uses battlefield nukes in Ukraine and the world condemns it. What now?

It's one thing to say we unite to act and make sure this doesn't happen again, but what do you imagine we actually do? If Russia is directly attacked it's been ready to respond with strategic nukes for decades. So that option is game over. If conventional forces join up with the Ukrainians, they can roll right over the invading Russian conventional forces but what's to stop Russia countering that by lobbing in more battlefield nukes?
Good question

There is a supposition that NATO forces could quickly eliminate Russia's ability to deliver a battlefield nuclear weapon through a series of precision strikes. I'm not comfortable about going "all in" on the quality of NATO's intelligence and strike capacity.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:23 AM   #2285
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm sure a Russophile would simply dismiss that interview as the rantings of a traitor who has abandoned Mother Russia at her time of need. We do need to be careful about reading too much into the opinions of the anti-war elite, they likely do not reflect the opinions of the majority or Russians who are still firmly behind Putin and the Special Military Operation.

The loss of a small number of relatively high value individuals may not really affect the Russian economy so much. Russia has a petrochemical economy and even though they're not selling to Europe, high wholesale prices means they're still earning significant amounts through sales to the rest of the world and their cash pile is still enormous. Even taking into account the funds frozen by the West, they have enough to prosecute the war for a significant period.

Don't get me wrong, any bad news for Russia is welcome, but this kind of thing is likely a rounding error in the wider scheme of the economic war.
I'm not so sure. When you look at some of the interviews of people coming out through Georgia, they're like this guy. The people who can afford to get out are. Those are the people Russia needs to stay. A lot of that was just on cable news so I can't link to most of it.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:30 AM   #2286
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I'm not so sure. When you look at some of the interviews of people coming out through Georgia, they're like this guy. The people who can afford to get out are. Those are the people Russia needs to stay. A lot of that was just on cable news so I can't link to most of it.
But do they, really ?

Over 50% of the Russian economy is driven by the extraction of raw materials, whether they're petrochemicals or precious metals or whatever.

Another big chunk will be the manufacturing and logistics relating to the war.

OTOH a manager and his team from an IT company, unless they're critical to the previous two parts are a "nice to have" in the Russian economy as it stands. The very long term future of the Russian economy may depend on a thriving high-tech information technology sector but right now, not so much IMO.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:46 AM   #2287
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Russia knows it needs to diversify as oil slowly phases out. The customers for Russian gas aren't coming back ("green hydrogen" will, I think spell the end of natural gas as an industry but topic for another thread).

Even if you have an extractive and manufacturing economy, you still need the IT, engineers, at the top end of the salary scale to run things. You can't sustain either in the face of a brain drain.

Also, with Russia's demographic issues, men leaving at the age they'd start families have an outsized impact on population decline generally.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:52 AM   #2288
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Russia knows it needs to diversify as oil slowly phases out. The customers for Russian gas aren't coming back ("green hydrogen" will, I think spell the end of natural gas as an industry but topic for another thread).

Even if you have an extractive and manufacturing economy, you still need the IT, engineers, at the top end of the salary scale to run things. You can't sustain either in the face of a brain drain.

Also, with Russia's demographic issues, men leaving at the age they'd start families have an outsized impact on population decline generally.
All of this is true, but those issues are years or even decades down the road.

IMO Putin doesn't care about this, he cares about his short-term legacy which appears to hinge on "success" in Ukraine.
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Old 29th September 2022, 03:29 AM   #2289
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Same reason journalists need to go to the Saudi embassy to pick up marriage papers
I understood that reference.
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Old 29th September 2022, 04:05 AM   #2290
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So did I.
Therefore nommed.
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Old 29th September 2022, 05:04 AM   #2291
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
All of this is true, but those issues are years or even decades down the road.

IMO Putin doesn't care about this, he cares about his short-term legacy which appears to hinge on "success" in Ukraine.
Putin cares deeply about demographics, because the problem isn’t decades down the line, it’s here now. Craig is wrong on energy, the demand will exist long after Putin dies of old age, but demographics cannot be avoided. But that’s a driver for this conflict: this is the last time Russia will have the manpower to fight a war like this. It’s now or never, so Putin decided now.
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Old 29th September 2022, 05:21 AM   #2292
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Putin cares deeply about demographics, because the problem isn’t decades down the line, it’s here now. Craig is wrong on energy, the demand will exist long after Putin dies of old age, but demographics cannot be avoided. But that’s a driver for this conflict: this is the last time Russia will have the manpower to fight a war like this. It’s now or never, so Putin decided now.
But going back to the start of this sidebar, Craig4 suggested that the brain drain of people like the IT professional who is now in Armenia would hasten an economic collapse which would lead to a military collapse.

I contend that this is not the case, at least in the short to medium term.
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Old 29th September 2022, 06:09 AM   #2293
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
But going back to the start of this sidebar, Craig4 suggested that the brain drain of people like the IT professional who is now in Armenia would hasten an economic collapse which would lead to a military collapse.

I contend that this is not the case, at least in the short to medium term.
FWIW, it's not only Craig4.

Russia's economy will 'die by winter' because of military mobilization

The mobilization is pretty definitely going to hurt the Russian economy quite a bit, either way. I'm not going to opine on how badly, though, myself.


Elsewhere,

Quote:
NEW: Russia has redeployed up to 80 percent of troops from its borders on the Baltic states and Finland to plug losses in Ukraine, officials tell @RobbieGramer
& me

European officials said there could be just 6,000 ���� troops left in Kaliningrad & Baltics
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Old 29th September 2022, 06:10 AM   #2294
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
But going back to the start of this sidebar, Craig4 suggested that the brain drain of people like the IT professional who is now in Armenia would hasten an economic collapse which would lead to a military collapse.

I contend that this is not the case, at least in the short to medium term.
It may not change the economics much in the short term, but it very may well in the medium term (say, 3 to 10 years). But those effects are often hard to measure directly, since you just get a general under-performance which may be hard to attribute to any one cause.

But it does have short term military implications, though "collapse" is probably too strong a word. For many combat and support roles, the skill set isn't really transferable: you train for that specific job (infantryman, artillery, etc), and that's what you do. Russia has a problem training soldiers, but it's not a brain drain problem. But there are a lot of specialized jobs and skills (combat medic, network engineers, etc) that the military needs to get expertise from civilian talent pool to fill. And if that talent pool is running dry from brain drain, the military won't be able to do those jobs well, and will suffer as a result. We've already seen this in action, with the abysmal Russian opsec using unencrypted communication. When you can't get those key jobs done well, that really does lower overall performance.
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Old 29th September 2022, 06:28 AM   #2295
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
It may not change the economics much in the short term, but it very may well in the medium term (say, 3 to 10 years). But those effects are often hard to measure directly, since you just get a general under-performance which may be hard to attribute to any one cause.

But it does have short term military implications, though "collapse" is probably too strong a word. For many combat and support roles, the skill set isn't really transferable: you train for that specific job (infantryman, artillery, etc), and that's what you do. Russia has a problem training soldiers, but it's not a brain drain problem. But there are a lot of specialized jobs and skills (combat medic, network engineers, etc) that the military needs to get expertise from civilian talent pool to fill. And if that talent pool is running dry from brain drain, the military won't be able to do those jobs well, and will suffer as a result. We've already seen this in action, with the abysmal Russian opsec using unencrypted communication. When you can't get those key jobs done well, that really does lower overall performance.

Also using cosmodrome technicians and strategic missile troops as infantry
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Old 29th September 2022, 06:41 AM   #2296
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Originally Posted by Stylesjl View Post
It was even on Russian state TV! Its like they don't even care about making it look legit.
Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
They don't
They really don't. According to CNN rolling, not even their allies are likely to accept this and they know it. What's their goal? It's all internal:

Quote:
Billboards proclaiming "Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson - Russia!" and giant video screens have been set up on Red Square, according to Reuters on Thursday.
It's meant to drum up support in defence of Mother Russia from Russia's own citizens. The question is, will it even work?
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Old 29th September 2022, 06:43 AM   #2297
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
They really don't. According to CNN rolling, not even their allies are likely to accept this and they know it. What's their goal? It's all internal:



It's meant to drum up support in defence of Mother Russia from Russia's own citizens. The question is, will it even work?
For urban "elites" with access to international sources, probably not.

For the majority of Russians who are broadly disinterested and get all of their information from Russian channels, probably yes.
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Old 29th September 2022, 06:55 AM   #2298
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Same reason journalists need to go to the Saudi embassy to pick up marriage papers
That would be weird; an embassy is for interacting with the host nation. A citizen overseas who needed government documents from their own country would go to their consulate. This is actually quite normal. People do it all the time, for obvious and sensible reasons.

As propositions go, it is entirely unlike Russia's holding a Ukrainian referendum in their own embassy.
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:15 AM   #2299
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From CNN:
Ukrainian forces are closing in on an occupied railroad hub in Donetsk, Russian-backed official says

Ukrainian forces continue to press closer to the occupied town of Lyman in the eastern Donetsk region, according to a Russian-backed leader there.

The railroad hub fell to Russian forces and their allied militia at the end of May, but the situation has grown "difficult" for the forces trying to hold the territory, said Alexander Petrikin, the pro-Russian head of the city administration. . . .

Ukrainian forces have made gains to the south, west and north of Lyman — with just one road to the east still under control of the pro-Russian groups.
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:37 AM   #2300
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Belarus is doing this that are worth watching. They are mobilizing their military and calling up reserves and seem to be prepping to host and stage a large Russian military force:
Quote:
The Belarusian Military has reportedly been placed on High Alert following Unconfirmed reports that the Lukashenko Government is preparing to Mobilize around 120k Reservist and Military Aged Men around the Country.
Quote:
Men around Belarus have also reportedly begun to receive summons to report to specific Military Commands around the Country.

Iuliia Mendel
Quote:
Belarus is preparing to accommodate 20K mobilized Russians.
The mobilized should replenish the 🇷🇺units stationed in Belarus. The ratio of "experienced" to "young" military should be 1 to 5.
For accommodation, it is planned to use the military funds, civilian premises & buildings
Lushenka has seemingly wavered several times already with whether or not Belarus would fully enter the fray (i.e. with it's own ground troops, not just hosting Russian combatants), and I would guess Pooooooten pushing him really hard.

There is also rumors that Poooootin's announcement of annexation may be delayed due to unhappiness with the draft/mobilization. Just rumors though, others think he'll make the announcement tomorrow.
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:50 AM   #2301
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I guess the big questions are, does Ukraine have the resources to fight on a second front? And, does Belarus have the resources to open a second front worth fighting? Assuming it does, is that really how Belarus wants to spend those resources?

I suppose whatever Belarus ends up sending across the border, it won't be anything like the top-tier Russian forces that tried for Kiev. It's possible that Ukraine could shake out a regiment or two of partisan skirmishers to harass them and keep them contained until the regular Ukrainian army has a chance to pivot their way.
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Old 29th September 2022, 09:24 AM   #2302
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I guess the big questions are, does Ukraine have the resources to fight on a second front? And, does Belarus have the resources to open a second front worth fighting? Assuming it does, is that really how Belarus wants to spend those resources?

I suppose whatever Belarus ends up sending across the border, it won't be anything like the top-tier Russian forces that tried for Kiev. It's possible that Ukraine could shake out a regiment or two of partisan skirmishers to harass them and keep them contained until the regular Ukrainian army has a chance to pivot their way.
Belarus only has to get to Kyiv and take it. The political ramifications would far outweigh the actual area of land taken.
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Old 29th September 2022, 09:45 AM   #2303
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post

I suppose whatever Belarus ends up sending across the border, it won't be anything like the top-tier Russian forces that tried for Kiev.
Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Belarus only has to get to Kyiv and take it. The political ramifications would far outweigh the actual area of land taken.
I haven't heard much else about this. So far, the US administration has been sharing information telegraphing every move. If Belarus is going to cross the border, I expect to hear more about it in the coming days.
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Old 29th September 2022, 10:00 AM   #2304
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Belarus only has to get to Kyiv and take it. The political ramifications would far outweigh the actual area of land taken.
Well, yes. I assume the objectives of a Belarussian offensive would be to

1. Force Ukraine to withdraw substantial forces from the eastern front to defend Kiev; by

2. Posing an immediate, credible threat to Kiev.

But the Belarussians won't be fielding Spetsnaz and Guards Armies, like the Russians did in the first week of the war. So the questions are, what quality and quantity of troops would they be fielding? How credible a threat could they actually pose? How much would Ukraine have to weaken themselves in the east, to counter that threat?

It seems like, in the early days of the war, Ukraine chose to give up territory in the east, in order to have the strength to repel the attack on Kiev. I wonder if now the shoe is on the other foot. I wonder if Ukraine is now in position where it could let militias and partisans resist the Belarussian advance, while Ukraine continues its liberation of the eastern provinces.

Probably the ideal is that Ukraine convinces Belarus that whatever happens, Belarus won't get to Kiev, and will lose more than it can afford to lose, no matter how things turn out for Ukraine elsewhere. "Sure, you may buy Russia a respite of six months or more, but you'll lose your army in the process. Do you really want to piss away your army for Vladimir Putin?"
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Old 29th September 2022, 10:05 AM   #2305
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Belarus is doing this that are worth watching. They are mobilizing their military and calling up reserves and seem to be prepping to host and stage a large Russian military force:



Iuliia Mendel

Lushenka has seemingly wavered several times already with whether or not Belarus would fully enter the fray (i.e. with it's own ground troops, not just hosting Russian combatants), and I would guess Pooooooten pushing him really hard.

There is also rumors that Poooootin's announcement of annexation may be delayed due to unhappiness with the draft/mobilization. Just rumors though, others think he'll make the announcement tomorrow.
Would Belarus fall under Putin's nuclear umbrella?
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Old 29th September 2022, 10:14 AM   #2306
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Originally Posted by Reformed Offlian View Post
Would Belarus fall under Putin's nuclear umbrella?
Probably. Belarus had a law that prohibited deployment of nuclear weapons on its territory. That law as repealed a month or two ago. There may already be some Russian nukes staged there. Belarus and Russia are a "Union State" whatever that means, they're not quite fully independent of each other.
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Old 29th September 2022, 11:43 AM   #2307
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
FWIW, it's not only Craig4.

Russia's economy will 'die by winter' because of military mobilization

The mobilization is pretty definitely going to hurt the Russian economy quite a bit, either way. I'm not going to opine on how badly, though, myself.


Elsewhere,
The Russian economy has been sort of an undead entity since the end of the Soviet Union.
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Old 29th September 2022, 12:37 PM   #2308
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Belarus only has to get to Kyiv and take it. The political ramifications would far outweigh the actual area of land taken.

And in 1940 Germany "only" had to get to London and take it. The political ramifications would have far outweighed the actual area of land taken.
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:17 PM   #2309
Lplus
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
And in 1940 Germany "only" had to get to London and take it. The political ramifications would have far outweighed the actual area of land taken.
I don't see 20 miles of sea between Belarus and Kyiv - otherwise I'm sure your analogy is just perfect....smh
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:20 PM   #2310
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Perun did a video a couple of months ago on a potential Belarusian invasion of Ukraine.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

yt;dw:

From the "CONCLUSIONS" slide, timestamp 55:43 (note: I corrected a few typos/autocorrect errors):
  • An invasion by Belarus would not be rational—doesn't mean it won't happen

  • Belarusian Army likely does not have the capability to independently carry out a deep operation into Ukraine or seize major urban centres

  • Direct intervention is fraught with major risks for Lukashenko's government—and few benefits

  • "Half measures" are lower risk and can still degrade Ukrainian efforts

  • Any involvement would still represent a tragedy
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:23 PM   #2311
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
I don't see 20 miles of sea between Belarus and Kyiv - otherwise I'm sure your analogy is just perfect....smh
Everything is relative. There are reasonable doubts that Belarus could cross the distance to Kiev, in the face of even desultory Ukrainian opposition.
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:28 PM   #2312
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
I don't see 20 miles of sea between Belarus and Kyiv - otherwise I'm sure your analogy is just perfect....smh

There might as well be. Your use of the word "only" implies that Belarus's army is actually capable of taking Kyiv, which it is not.
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:33 PM   #2313
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As Perun pointed out in one of his other videos, Kyiv has a large number of territorial defense troops nearby. These will now undoubtedly be even better organized and equipped (and possibly more numerous) than they were when Russia tried to take the city at the beginning of the war.
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:37 PM   #2314
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Can Lukashenko really survive sending Belarusians to die for Russia? I'd think that would be a great moment to finally topple the regime.
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:46 PM   #2315
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Originally Posted by Olmstead View Post
Can Lukashenko really survive sending Belarusians to die for Russia? I'd think that would be a great moment to finally topple the regime.
Exactly.

Belarus voted to leave the USSR. Lukashenko is unpopular and possibly a drain on Russian forces who are propping him up.
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:47 PM   #2316
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Hell, the territorial defense troops around Kiev may now be better organized and equipped than the Belarussians.
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Old 29th September 2022, 01:49 PM   #2317
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Hell, the territorial defense troops around Kiev may now be better organized and equipped than the Belarussians.
If the Russians are unmotivated what until you see the Belorussians.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:00 PM   #2318
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Okay, this is just plain bizarre. From CBS, via MSN:
Johns Hopkins doctor and Army doctor spouse charged with conspiring to give U.S. soldiers' medical info to Russia

The Justice Department on Thursday accused an Army doctor and a Johns Hopkins anesthesiologist of conspiring to provide the Russian government with medical information about U.S. soldiers and their relatives.

The indictment names Jamie Lee Henry, an Army major at Fort Bragg who had a secret security clearance, and Henry’s spouse, Anna Gabrielian, a Russian-speaker who is affiliated with Johns Hopkins, according to a Hopkins webpage.

They are charged with offering sensitive information to an undercover FBI agent who was posing as a representative of the Russian Embassy. . . .

During an Aug. 17 meeting in a Baltimore hotel room, Gabrielian told the undercover FBI agent “she was motivated by patriotism toward Russia to provide any assistance she could to Russia, even if it meant being fired or going to jail,” the indictment alleges. . . .

Later on Aug. 17, Gabrielian and Henry met with the undercover agent, the indictment says. According to the indictment, Henry described a commitment to assisting Russia and had looked into volunteering to join the Russian army after the conflict in Ukraine began, but Russia wanted people with combat experience and Henry did not have any. The indictment says Henry added, “the way I am viewing what is going on in Ukraine now, is that the United States is using Ukrainians as a proxy for their own hatred toward Russia.”
This and other news articles mention that Henry is the first openly transgender US Army officer. Whether this has any bearing on the case remains to be seen.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:03 PM   #2319
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Okay, this is just plain bizarre. From CBS, via MSN:
Johns Hopkins doctor and Army doctor spouse charged with conspiring to give U.S. soldiers' medical info to Russia

The Justice Department on Thursday accused an Army doctor and a Johns Hopkins anesthesiologist of conspiring to provide the Russian government with medical information about U.S. soldiers and their relatives.

The indictment names Jamie Lee Henry, an Army major at Fort Bragg who had a secret security clearance, and Henry’s spouse, Anna Gabrielian, a Russian-speaker who is affiliated with Johns Hopkins, according to a Hopkins webpage.

They are charged with offering sensitive information to an undercover FBI agent who was posing as a representative of the Russian Embassy. . . .

During an Aug. 17 meeting in a Baltimore hotel room, Gabrielian told the undercover FBI agent “she was motivated by patriotism toward Russia to provide any assistance she could to Russia, even if it meant being fired or going to jail,” the indictment alleges. . . .

Later on Aug. 17, Gabrielian and Henry met with the undercover agent, the indictment says. According to the indictment, Henry described a commitment to assisting Russia and had looked into volunteering to join the Russian army after the conflict in Ukraine began, but Russia wanted people with combat experience and Henry did not have any. The indictment says Henry added, “the way I am viewing what is going on in Ukraine now, is that the United States is using Ukrainians as a proxy for their own hatred toward Russia.”
This and other news articles mention that Henry is the first openly transgender US Army officer. Whether this has any bearing on the case remains to be seen.
I'm wondering how that information could possibly be of any use to Russia Like... propaganda, General so-and-so had a nasty bout of the Clap in 1992 while stationed in Germany.
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Old 29th September 2022, 02:08 PM   #2320
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I'm wondering how that information could possibly be of any use to Russia Like... propaganda, General so-and-so had a nasty bout of the Clap in 1992 while stationed in Germany.

One of the articles I saw mentioned that some of the information could potentially have been used for blackmail.
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