IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags nato , Russia-Finland relations , Russia-Sweden relations , Russia-Ukraine war , vladimir putin

Reply
Old 3rd August 2022, 08:14 PM   #561
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 56,838
Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
So masculine!
He's jealous of the Finns who have shown real Masculinity on several occasions....The Winter War comes to mind.
And Hawley showed us his full masculinty on Jan.6th.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.

Last edited by dudalb; 3rd August 2022 at 08:15 PM.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th August 2022, 01:55 AM   #562
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,674
Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Gaetz doesn’t have a vote. He's a congress person not a US Senator.

If you'd bothered to read the two posts immediately before the one to which you responded, you would have seen that I pointed this out to Vixen. 18 Republicans, including Gaetz, voted against a non-binding House resolution expressing support for Finland and Sweden's accession.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz
SpitfireIX is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th August 2022, 02:32 AM   #563
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: I live in a swamp
Posts: 26,341
I assume Gaetz objects to Finland's aggressive prosecution of those who hire prostitutes. Finland famously doesn't make selling sex illegal but paying for it is. I can see where Gaetz would have an objection.
__________________
Fight like a Ukrainian.
Craig4 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th August 2022, 03:00 AM   #564
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
 
Oystein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,233
Here is a page that tracks which member countries have ratified the ascension of Finland and Sweden to NATO, and which are yet upcoming:

https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finl...eden-accession

Fellow Scandinavians Denmark, Iceland and Norway, along with Finlands sister nation Estland as well as Canada and the UK were the first, on July 5th[*] and 6th.
One country named upthread as a potential hold-out is Croatia - they ratified on the 15th.

With the vote in the US Senate, 23 nations have ratified as of now[**].

Still waiting for 7:
Czech Republic
Greece
Hungary
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
Türkiye
Of these, Hungary and Turkey may play hard-to-get.

---[*] "The accession protocols for both countries were signed on 5 July after completion of accession talks." - I assume that those protocols are the very thing member nations are given for ratification, so those nations that ratified on the 5 July did it essentially immediately.
[**] "Now" is only 29 days, just under a month, since the accession protocols were signed. That's super fast! I remember we talked whether ratification would be done before year-end
__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)

Last edited by Oystein; 4th August 2022 at 03:05 AM. Reason: Added footnotes, in blue font
Oystein is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th August 2022, 03:21 AM   #565
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,674
To expand a bit on what I wrote earlier, Orban may run his mouth or ask for minor concessions, but at the end of the day he can't afford to piss off Poland, so he won't make any demands that could seriously delay or derail the process.

Erdoğan is more likely to actually cause delays, but if his demands are too unreasonable he'll eventually find the consequences for Turkey aren't worth whatever he hopes to gain.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz
SpitfireIX is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th August 2022, 01:21 PM   #566
Tero
Master Poster
 
Tero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 2,857
(Same in US-UK source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...turkey-ukraine)
Erdogan met Putin. HS makes no mention of NATO, and Ukraine only in connection with grain. Turkey is in involved in some economic unit unfamiliar to me.

Quote:
RECENTLY , the Russian media has also written that Turkey could be joining Brics. On Friday, however, it was not known whether this issue would be raised in the presidents' conversation.

"Also among the Brics countries, there has been talk of new members joining," says Alaranta.

In addition to Russia, the Brics group includes India, South Africa, China and Brazil. It is a group of emerging economic powers that wants to challenge the leading position of Western countries - especially the United States - in the world economy.

In addition to Turkey, it is estimated that Egypt, among others, is possibly joining the group.

IN ADDITION, the presidents' talks dealt with grain shipments from Black Sea ports in Ukraine.

On Friday, Turkey reported that three grain ships have left Odessa, Ukraine. One of the ships sails under the flag of Panama, one under the flag of Turkey and one under the flag of Malta.

Ukraine's seaborne grain shipments were disrupted after Russia launched a large-scale invasion of the country in February. The first grain ship was able to leave the port of Odessa for Lebanon on Monday.

Ukraine and Russia are the world's two largest grain exporters. The war between the countries made food prices for poor countries unreasonably expensive, and the UN, among other things, feared that this would cause famine in the poorest countries.

ACCORDING TO ALARANTA , it is also noteworthy that Erdoğan is the first NATO leader to travel to Russia since Russia launched a full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in February.

He generally describes the relations between Turkey and Russia as a long-term relationship with better and worse moments. The last time the two countries were in crisis was when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on its border with Syria in 2015. Since then, Turkey's relations with Russia have become closer again, while relations with the West have been more difficult.
https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008986971.html
__________________
Dominus vo-bisque'em Et cum spear a tu-tu, oh!

Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/
Parody: http://karireport.blogspot.com/
Poll: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

Last edited by Tero; 5th August 2022 at 01:26 PM.
Tero is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th August 2022, 03:35 AM   #567
Tero
Master Poster
 
Tero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 2,857
Turkey parliament will take up NATO thing at the earliest in October.
__________________
Dominus vo-bisque'em Et cum spear a tu-tu, oh!

Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/
Parody: http://karireport.blogspot.com/
Poll: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/
Tero is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th August 2022, 04:42 PM   #568
Tero
Master Poster
 
Tero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 2,857
Sweden considering deporting two Kurds to Turkey
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content...rtation-turkey

Swedish press not happy
__________________
Dominus vo-bisque'em Et cum spear a tu-tu, oh!

Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/
Parody: http://karireport.blogspot.com/
Poll: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/
Tero is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th August 2022, 02:32 AM   #569
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 30,993
Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Sweden considering deporting two Kurds to Turkey
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content...rtation-turkey

Swedish press not happy
It wouldn't be the first time Sweden has done that.
__________________
The parting on the Left
Is now parting on the Right ~ Pete Townshend

Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th September 2022, 06:33 AM   #570
Tero
Master Poster
 
Tero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 2,857
Quote:
HELSINKI, Finland — Finland and Sweden will become official NATO members by Christmas, the U.S. ambassador to Finland predicted in a conversation with reporters and experts.
<snip>
But Hickey believes Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN doesn’t want to be the lone holdout, incentivizing him to move quickly on the issue.

“I don’t think he wants to be on an island too long,” he told your host during a meeting as part of a trip organized and sponsored by the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Time was of the essence, he implored, especially after Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN ordered a partial mobilization of his military and threatened nuclear use.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters...stmas-00058404
__________________
Dominus vo-bisque'em Et cum spear a tu-tu, oh!

Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/
Parody: http://karireport.blogspot.com/
Poll: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/
Tero is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th September 2022, 06:57 AM   #571
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
 
Oystein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,233
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Here is a page that tracks which member countries have ratified the ascension of Finland and Sweden to NATO, and which are yet upcoming:

https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finl...eden-accession

...

Still waiting for 7:
Czech Republic
Greece
Hungary
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
Türkiye
Of these, Hungary and Turkey may play hard-to-get.
...
This was August 4th.
In the meantime
☑️ Czech Republic - 27 August
☑️ Greece - 15 September
☑️ Portugal - 16 September
☑️ Spain - 21 September

Still holding out:
  • Hungary
  • Slovakia
  • Türkiye
Of these, Slovakia should go without saying.

Doesn't Hungary have a bit of a special relationship to Finland?
__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)
Oystein is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th September 2022, 10:36 AM   #572
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 30,993
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
This was August 4th.
In the meantime
☑️ Czech Republic - 27 August
☑️ Greece - 15 September
☑️ Portugal - 16 September
☑️ Spain - 21 September

Still holding out:
  • Hungary
  • Slovakia
  • Türkiye
Of these, Slovakia should go without saying.

Doesn't Hungary have a bit of a special relationship to Finland?
Yes, Hungarian is a Uralic language and does share similar features in its grammatical structure (i.e., it is heavily inflected). However, Hungarian broke off from a common language with Finnish some 4,500 years ago, and the only remaining similarities are in kinship words. Finnish has special (separate) words for mother-un-law, father-in-law, sister-in-law, nephew-in-law, etc., depending on whether they are on your mother's side or your father's side. Your mother's brother would be, an enö and your father's, a setä, for example (=uncle). Hungarian has this same highly complex kinship naming system we do not see in English, French or German, etc. (Anthropologists believe therefore, that the ancient ugric cultures had bride barter, hence the need for all the differentiation.)

Genetically wise, the old Hungarian conquerors whose remains were excavated had a similar N1 haplotype seen widely in Finland now, modern day Hungarian is mostly composed of loan words from conquering Turkic, Iranian, Huns and Slavs, thanks to invaders from the East European steppes. Few today have the characteristic N1 haplotype, as compared to 37% of the dug up so-called original 'Hungarian conquerors' who brought with them the essentially Uralic language of Hungarian.

No, Finns and Hungarians cannot understand each other today, although several words for metals, trees and some animals have the same basic etymological roots. When I meet Hungarians, we like to think we are cousins. It's an existential nod.

Politically, in the context of the Ukraine war, we know that the President, Orban, is hard right, not dissimilar to Belarus (and even Poland). I suspect Hungary wants to hedge its bets with Putin. It is out of favour with the EU on various issues, so no surprise it is, shall we say, a rogue state, in effect.

Turkey has managed to get Sweden to agree to extradite a couple of Kurdish activists. However, Erdogan has been impressive in respect of the prisoner exchange recently.


Slovakia, I can't remember what the issue is with this country.
__________________
The parting on the Left
Is now parting on the Right ~ Pete Townshend


Last edited by Vixen; 25th September 2022 at 10:37 AM.
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th September 2022, 11:16 AM   #573
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
 
Oystein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,233
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Yes, Hungarian is a Uralic language and does share similar features in its grammatical structure (i.e., it is heavily inflected). However, Hungarian broke off from a common language with Finnish some 4,500 years ago, and the only remaining similarities are in kinship words...
Genetically wise, the old Hungarian conquerors whose remains were excavated had a similar N1 haplotype seen widely in Finland now...
Yeah, this common linguistic and haplo-type ancestry is what I was alluding to.
The question is: Does this in any way shape mutual perception, feelings and relationships today, in a positive way even? Or is it just a bit of trivia merely of interest to nerds like us, who are studying obscure subjects?

Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
...Slovakia, I can't remember what the issue is with this country.
I am not aware of any issue and am quite contented to assume that mills grind at different speeds in different places. Spain ratified only 4 days ago, and I would not suspect that Spain has an issue.
__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)
Oystein is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th September 2022, 03:42 PM   #574
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 30,993
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Yeah, this common linguistic and haplo-type ancestry is what I was alluding to.
The question is: Does this in any way shape mutual perception, feelings and relationships today, in a positive way even? Or is it just a bit of trivia merely of interest to nerds like us, who are studying obscure subjects?


I am not aware of any issue and am quite contented to assume that mills grind at different speeds in different places. Spain ratified only 4 days ago, and I would not suspect that Spain has an issue.
Mainly trivia, I'm afraid, as Hungary has been occupied by so many invaders over the last 4,500 years in Central Europe and has had different rulers and masters. Whilst Finland did get some combware culture people in from Scandinavia a couple of thousand years ago, not to mention more modern Danes and then Swedes in the west and Karelians in the East it has remained far more homogenous than almost any other European country. So yes, on the one hand we think Hungarians are somehow related, on the other hand we can't understand each other's language. At least with Estonian we can understand the odd word, even if the grammar has changed too much to be mutually understandable (strong low German influence in sentence structure and loan words). Strangely, despite the crusades coming from the south and west, the words associated with the Church and Christianity are frequently Russian loan words (for example, bible= raamattu), when you would have expected them to be Swedish root, like the word for Church - Kirkko - Germanic kirsche. Swedish of course, is a germanic language and there are quite a lot of Swedish loan words. For example, ranta - beach (= strand).

Finland is most closely aligned with Sweden. The laws are practically identical. Similar justice system to Germany and strong privacy laws.

Finland has had to maintain close relations with Russia for obvious reasons. However, since Putin recently announced he will attack any country in order to protect Russian communities living there, it has spooked Finns quite a bit as there are some 32,000 ethnic Russians in Finland - by far the largest immigrant group - which causes some ambivalence about their presence.
__________________
The parting on the Left
Is now parting on the Right ~ Pete Townshend

Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 05:33 AM   #575
Tero
Master Poster
 
Tero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 2,857
Finnish and Hungarian are like English and Sanskrit.

The genetics also does not affect much as far as kinship. If you look at the Baltic countries, the genetics are the same, you cannot tell a country just by genes. Yet two are Slavic and one is a Finno-Ugric language.
__________________
Dominus vo-bisque'em Et cum spear a tu-tu, oh!

Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/
Parody: http://karireport.blogspot.com/
Poll: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/
Tero is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 05:58 AM   #576
Mike!
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it!
 
Mike!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not!
Posts: 47,978
I know this is s sort of 'catch 22' scenario, but, if Russia "claims" the occupied territory as "Russian", wouldn't that "end" any sort of internal conflict at that moment, (and that moment only, I don't expect Ukraine to respect or even acknowledge the sham referendum) would it be possible for Ukraine to join NATO as there is no internal conflict within their "borders", as of that moment? Sure, it'd give Russia some level of international acknowledgment of it's new, so called, boarders, but it'd be a major stab in the eye for Putin's efforts to stop NATO expansion. And who says Ukraine can't go ahead and fight to reclaim their lost territory after the fact?

End fantasy speculation.
__________________
"Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes...
Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes."
Mike! is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 06:24 AM   #577
theprestige
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 62,475
Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
I know this is s sort of 'catch 22' scenario, but, if Russia "claims" the occupied territory as "Russian", wouldn't that "end" any sort of internal conflict at that moment, (and that moment only, I don't expect Ukraine to respect or even acknowledge the sham referendum) would it be possible for Ukraine to join NATO as there is no internal conflict within their "borders", as of that moment? Sure, it'd give Russia some level of international acknowledgment of it's new, so called, boarders, but it'd be a major stab in the eye for Putin's efforts to stop NATO expansion. And who says Ukraine can't go ahead and fight to reclaim their lost territory after the fact?

End fantasy speculation.
Granted it's fantasy, but still... even in fantasy, the NATO members aren't stupid. They're not so excited about having Ukraine that they'd all vote to admit them overnight on what is clearly a point of gamesmanship.

I don't think "technically correct" actually has much value, between nation-states.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 06:47 AM   #578
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 28,156
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Granted it's fantasy, but still... even in fantasy, the NATO members aren't stupid. They're not so excited about having Ukraine that they'd all vote to admit them overnight on what is clearly a point of gamesmanship.

I don't think "technically correct" actually has much value, between nation-states.
It would also require Ukraine to give up its liberated areas and give Putin a victory from defeat.


And Ukraine has had territorial integrity guaranteed by both Russia and the West before so they would have no reason to believe that it would be over.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare
https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt

Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 09:33 AM   #579
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 28,156
Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
It would also require Ukraine to give up its liberated areas and give Putin a victory from defeat.


And Ukraine has had territorial integrity guaranteed by both Russia and the West before so they would have no reason to believe that it would be over.
https://time.com/6216213/ukraine-mil...eriy-zaluzhny/

Quote:
For his part, Zaluzhny is girding for a long and bloody slog. “Knowing what I know firsthand about the Russians, our victory will not be final,” he told TIME. “Our victory will be an opportunity to take a breath and prepare for the next war.” —With reporting by Leslie Dickstein and Simmone Shah
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare
https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt

Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 10:13 AM   #580
theprestige
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 62,475
Yeah. Better to keep pushing hard, take back everything they can, give up anything that they can't get now*, and then press for NATO membership in the few years' interval where Russia licks its wounds and tries to rebuild for the next war.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 11:54 AM   #581
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 52,693
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Yeah. Better to keep pushing hard, take back everything they can, give up anything that they can't get now*, and then press for NATO membership in the few years' interval where Russia licks its wounds and tries to rebuild for the next war.
Russia cannot rebuild for the next war. There will be no next war. This is it, this is their one shot, which is why Putin refuses to back down. They're looking at not only high tech industrial collapse because of sanctions, but also demographic collapse, with or without sanctions. It is already set in stone how many 20 year old Russians there will be in 15 years, and no policy choice can change that. Russia is a dying country, this is one of their death spasms.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 11:59 AM   #582
theprestige
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 62,475
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Russia cannot rebuild for the next war. There will be no next war. This is it, this is their one shot, which is why Putin refuses to back down. They're looking at not only high tech industrial collapse because of sanctions, but also demographic collapse, with or without sanctions. It is already set in stone how many 20 year old Russians there will be in 15 years, and no policy choice can change that. Russia is a dying country, this is one of their death spasms.
I tend to agree. I framed it the other way as a sop to those who are somehow still convinced that any concession at all will embolden Russia to keep trying this. I would share that realistic concern, if I thought the ability of Russia to try this again in our lifetime was even remotely realistic.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 12:07 PM   #583
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 52,693
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I tend to agree. I framed it the other way as a sop to those who are somehow still convinced that any concession at all will embolden Russia to keep trying this. I would share that realistic concern, if I thought the ability of Russia to try this again in our lifetime was even remotely realistic.
We could even take that a step further, because other actors are watching what happens. Even if Russia can't capitalize on their gains, if other people see that Russia made gains, then that may encourage them to act badly as well. So the concern remains regardless of Russia's future capabilities, and in that sense Russia's demographic collapse isn't a reason to make concessions to them.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 12:20 PM   #584
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 28,156
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I tend to agree. I framed it the other way as a sop to those who are somehow still convinced that any concession at all will embolden Russia to keep trying this. I would share that realistic concern, if I thought the ability of Russia to try this again in our lifetime was even remotely realistic.
Yup.

Russia is about half the population of the USSR (or well under half the US population). And with an economy 60% of France (before the invasion). It has been sending its Cosmodrome test units and strategic missile troops to the front. It is trying to field an army of 1.2 million and has ignored protected occupations - possibly due to corruption in the mobilisation as opposed to ineptness in the planning.

There are also separatist movements, and the leader is out of touch.

This is Putin's last roll of the dice.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare
https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt

Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 12:21 PM   #585
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 28,156
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
We could even take that a step further, because other actors are watching what happens. Even if Russia can't capitalize on their gains, if other people see that Russia made gains, then that may encourage them to act badly as well. So the concern remains regardless of Russia's future capabilities, and in that sense Russia's demographic collapse isn't a reason to make concessions to them.
Bingo
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare
https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt

Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 12:23 PM   #586
theprestige
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 62,475
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
We could even take that a step further, because other actors are watching what happens. Even if Russia can't capitalize on their gains, if other people see that Russia made gains, then that may encourage them to act badly as well. So the concern remains regardless of Russia's future capabilities, and in that sense Russia's demographic collapse isn't a reason to make concessions to them.
Good point. I've been thinking of this exclusively in terms of Russia's ambitions. If somebody were argue that there should be no concessions, not because it will embolden Russia, but because it will embolden someone else, I'd find that interesting.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 07:06 PM   #587
tyr_13
Penultimate Amazing
 
tyr_13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 17,403
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Good point. I've been thinking of this exclusively in terms of Russia's ambitions. If somebody were argue that there should be no concessions, not because it will embolden Russia, but because it will embolden someone else, I'd find that interesting.
Others have pointed out the very obvious (to western audiences) parallel to China's desires over Taiwan, and the South China Sea, but I'll also raise both China AND India's ideas over their borders.

China/India/Pakistan issues are salient I'd argue.
__________________
Circled nothing is still nothing.
"Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel
Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong
tyr_13 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th September 2022, 10:13 PM   #588
Lukraak_Sisser
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,747
Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Others have pointed out the very obvious (to western audiences) parallel to China's desires over Taiwan, and the South China Sea, but I'll also raise both China AND India's ideas over their borders.

China/India/Pakistan issues are salient I'd argue.
True, but most those nations also have good reason to agitate against the Russian actions.

If, for instance, India claims this is a good way to settle border disputes, Pakistan will have a referendum organized in it's part of Kashmir the next month. Or vice versa.
Not to mention that China still has its eyes on parts of Northern India and would then happily follow the Russian example.
Iran, Turkey and Syria would have a similar problem with their Kurdish territories.

Now personally I don't think China will be confident and/or stupid enough to attack Taiwan, but Mongolia? Parts of Siberia?
Why not take a page from the Russian book and liberate those? It's not like the Russian army is a threat at the moment.
Lukraak_Sisser is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th September 2022, 10:34 AM   #589
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
 
timhau's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Looks like Finland. Smells like Finland. Quacks like Finland. Where the hell am I?
Posts: 15,067
Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Finnish and Hungarian are like English and Sanskrit.

The genetics also does not affect much as far as kinship. If you look at the Baltic countries, the genetics are the same, you cannot tell a country just by genes. Yet two are Slavic and one is a Finno-Ugric language.
Latvian and Lithuanian are Baltic, not Slavic languages.

Anyway, Slovakia just ratified our membership, so only Turkey and that wannabe Russian client state remain.
__________________
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord, in his wisdom, doesn't work that way. I just stole one and asked Him to forgive me.
- Emo Philips
timhau is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th September 2022, 12:29 PM   #590
trustbutverify
Philosopher
 
trustbutverify's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 9,927
Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Latvian and Lithuanian are Baltic, not Slavic languages.

Anyway, Slovakia just ratified our membership, so only Turkey and that wannabe Russian client state remain.
The most pro-Putin member of NATO? That must have been expensive.
__________________
"To me, Hitler is the greatest man who ever lived. He truly is without fault, so simple and at the same time possessed of masculine strength"
-Leni Riefenstahl
Wollen owns the stage
trustbutverify is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th September 2022, 12:56 PM   #591
Klimax
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
 
Klimax's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Starship Wanderer - DS9
Posts: 13,933
Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
The most pro-Putin member of NATO? That must have been expensive.
You're thinking of Hungary.
__________________
ModBorg

Engine: Ibalgin 400
Klimax is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th September 2022, 02:10 PM   #592
tyr_13
Penultimate Amazing
 
tyr_13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 17,403
Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
True, but most those nations also have good reason to agitate against the Russian actions.

If, for instance, India claims this is a good way to settle border disputes, Pakistan will have a referendum organized in it's part of Kashmir the next month. Or vice versa.
Not to mention that China still has its eyes on parts of Northern India and would then happily follow the Russian example.
Iran, Turkey and Syria would have a similar problem with their Kurdish territories.

Now personally I don't think China will be confident and/or stupid enough to attack Taiwan, but Mongolia? Parts of Siberia?
Why not take a page from the Russian book and liberate those? It's not like the Russian army is a threat at the moment.
The takeaway internationally can't just be 'Russia failed because it was weak', but that 'Russia failed and some of the reasons mean it was never going to be worth it'.

If India (or China) thinks Russia failed, but they could get away doing something like it with concessions, it might very well try it in the next decade. Climate change is going to fuel resource/land grabs and there have to be enough costs lined up to help tamp that down.
__________________
Circled nothing is still nothing.
"Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel
Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong
tyr_13 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th September 2022, 10:05 AM   #593
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 30,993
Seems Hungary is opposed to some of the EU's proposed sanctions against Russia.

The N.A.T.O. application sign off could take time.
__________________
The parting on the Left
Is now parting on the Right ~ Pete Townshend

Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th September 2022, 10:08 AM   #594
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 30,993
As from midnight, Russians will be stopped from coming across the Finnish border on tourist visas. This means only those with family, work or study interest can set foot in Finland from Russia.

Predictably, the Russians making veiled threats in return about our 'unfriendliness'.

Quote:
ACCORDING TO RUSSIAN Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Gruško , Russia will react to Finland's visa restrictions "in accordance with its own interests". This is reported by the Russian state news agency Tass .
HS
__________________
The parting on the Left
Is now parting on the Right ~ Pete Townshend

Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th September 2022, 02:30 PM   #595
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,674
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Seems Hungary is opposed to some of the EU's proposed sanctions against Russia.

The N.A.T.O. application sign off could take time.

Turkey will be the major holdup. I read that they probably won't take up accession until after their elections next year. Again, Orbán will complain about various issues and demand minor concessions, but he just can't afford to alienate Poland, as they need each other to veto EU penalties for some of their illiberal policies. This applies to both the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO and the imposition of tougher sanctions on Russia.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz
SpitfireIX is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th September 2022, 02:45 PM   #596
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 35,570
Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Turkey will be the major holdup. I read that they probably won't take up accession until after their elections next year. Again, Orbán will complain about various issues and demand minor concessions, but he just can't afford to alienate Poland, as they need each other to veto EU penalties for some of their illiberal policies. This applies to both the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO and the imposition of tougher sanctions on Russia.
Turkey isn't in the EU (and likely never will be in my lifetime) so cannot veto on Poland's behalf.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th September 2022, 03:08 PM   #597
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,674
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Turkey isn't in the EU (and likely never will be in my lifetime) so cannot veto on Poland's behalf.

I said Orbán, not Erdoğan. My point was that Hungary will likely ratify long before Turkey does.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz
SpitfireIX is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th September 2022, 03:42 PM   #598
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 30,993
Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
I said Orbán, not Erdoğan. My point was that Hungary will likely ratify long before Turkey does.
I have to say, Erdoğan has shown some surprisingly diplomatic skills. My bet is that Hungary will be last to sign.


Or maybe not...
__________________
The parting on the Left
Is now parting on the Right ~ Pete Townshend

Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th September 2022, 05:28 PM   #599
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: I live in a swamp
Posts: 26,341
After Russia proceeds with the fake annexation, Turkey and Hungary will sign. Turkey and Hungary will not be able to resist pressure for a united response from the rest of NATO.
__________________
Fight like a Ukrainian.
Craig4 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th September 2022, 05:48 PM   #600
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,674
They were going to approve anyway, eventually, but hopefully you are correct and they will cease dragging their feet.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz
SpitfireIX is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:39 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.