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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 30th September 2022, 06:35 AM   #2361
Childlike Empress
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It seems that perhaps 80% is a bit of an overestimate:

Maybe it is, I took that from my mind. Your source claims Donetzk and Lugansk have a quarter of the industrial capacity of former Ukraine. There are four oblasts added to Russia today, including the largest Nuclear plant in Europe (which the Ukrainians are still attacking) etc. A very safe guess is that the four oblasts have far more than half of the industrial capacity of former Ukraine. The bread basket, your source is right, is further west, as I alluded to.

Point is, the post I was replying to shows a fundamental lack of knowledge about the situation.
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Old 30th September 2022, 06:46 AM   #2362
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post


Only around 80% of former Ukraine's industrial capacity. The Ukrainian flag got even more appropriate today. Yellow sunflower fields under a blue sky.
Setting aside for a moment the percentages used, which you admit aren't accurate, Russia hasn't added that industrial capacity to their empire. They've destroyed it. The Azovstal steel plant at Mariupol isn't going to be operational under Russian ownership. It's wrecked, and Russia isn't in a position to rebuild it. The can't afford to, and won't bother to. They have deprived Ukraine of it, but have not actually gained it themselves. So Arcade22 is right: Russia isn't actually benefiting from this conquest, they're only harming Ukraine. Perhaps this is enough for Putin. It certainly seems enough for you.
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Old 30th September 2022, 06:47 AM   #2363
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Maybe it is, I took that from my mind. Your source claims Donetzk and Lugansk have a quarter of the industrial capacity of former Ukraine. There are four oblasts added to Russia today, including the largest Nuclear plant in Europe (which the Ukrainians are still attacking) etc. A very safe guess is that the four oblasts have far more than half of the industrial capacity of former Ukraine. The bread basket, your source is right, is further west, as I alluded to.

Point is, the post I was replying to shows a fundamental lack of knowledge about the situation.
Except that isn't true (as the article I linked shows) unless:
  • Maths isn't your strong point and think that 350bn hryvnia is more than half of well over 1tn hryvnia
  • You include the parts of those oblasts not under Russian control
  • You ignore the fact that the industrial capacity of those oblasts is significantly reduced by the war

Also, Ukraine isn't attacking the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant.

IOW the usual level of accuracy of Kremlin propaganda.
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Old 30th September 2022, 06:51 AM   #2364
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Setting aside for a moment the percentages used, which you admit aren't accurate, Russia hasn't added that industrial capacity to their empire. They've destroyed it. The Azovstal steel plant at Mariupol isn't going to be operational under Russian ownership. It's wrecked, and Russia isn't in a position to rebuild it. The can't afford to, and won't bother to. They have deprived Ukraine of it, but have not actually gained it themselves. So Arcade22 is right: Russia isn't actually benefiting from this conquest, they're only harming Ukraine. Perhaps this is enough for Putin. It certainly seems enough for you.

Azovstal is an exception from the rule. This is where the (real) Nazis dug in for months, and it was a fortress built in cold war times to withstand a nuclear attack. Mariupol has been reduced to rubbles, but most other cities like for example Kharson haven't. Next to no fighting there. And in Mariupol the rebuilding is going on at fast pace. The first keys to (free of charge) apartments in new shiny apartment buildings have been handed over a week or two ago to families with many children. If you want I can search for links to that but you can take it on face value. These oblasts will be treated like Crimea, where the current state is manyfold better than what it was after decades of Ukrainian rule.
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Old 30th September 2022, 06:53 AM   #2365
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Also, Ukraine isn't attacking the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant.

IOW the usual level of accuracy of Kremlin propaganda.

indeed.
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Old 30th September 2022, 06:55 AM   #2366
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Azovstal is an exception from the rule. This is where the (real) Nazis dug in for months, and it was a fortress built in cold war times to withstand a nuclear attack. Mariupol has been reduced to rubbles, but most other cities like for example Kharson haven't. Next to no fighting there. And in Mariupol the rebuilding is going on at fast pace. The first keys to (free of charge) apartments in new shiny apartment buildings have been handed over a week or two ago to families with many children. If you want I can search for links to that but you can take it on face value. These oblasts will be treated like Crimea, where the current state is manyfold better than what it was after decades of Ukrainian rule.
Kherson is 22nd out of 27 oblasts in terms of industrial output and Ukraine seems to be far more accurate with its artillery so it's hardly surprising that there's comparatively little damaged.

OTOH Russia has levelled places like Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, reducing their industrial capacity to near zero.
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Old 30th September 2022, 06:57 AM   #2367
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btw, a lot of the Donbass industry "belonged" to the richest oligarch of Ukraine, Rinat Akhmetov. Last week or so, he was finally stripped from his "ownership" and , without compensation, the facilities were nationalized.
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Old 30th September 2022, 06:58 AM   #2368
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
OTOH Russia has levelled places like Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, reducing their industrial capacity to near zero.

Lysychansk is fine, next to no damage, as the Ukrainians fled the place after the remains of Severodonetsk were taken.
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:06 AM   #2369
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In other news, it seems that Ukrainian forces have taken Yampil and so it may soon be time for another Russian panic withdrawal, this time from Lyman leaving men and materiel behind masterfully executed tactical withdrawal setting a trap for Ukraine to stumble into.

Last edited by The Don; 30th September 2022 at 07:08 AM.
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:10 AM   #2370
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
There are four oblasts added to Russia today
A genocidal dictator declaring something so does not make it so.

Those oblasts remain part of Ukraine. They will be eventually be liberated from the forces which are currently illegally occupying them
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:20 AM   #2371
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
A genocidal dictator declaring something so does not make it so.

Those oblasts remain part of Ukraine. They will be eventually be liberated from the forces which are currently illegally occupying them
Not true. I declared those oblasts part of Daald's Peoples Republic after holding a referendum in my bathroom. I expect them to be handed to me as soon as this conflict is over.
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:20 AM   #2372
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Lysychansk is fine, next to no damage, as the Ukrainians fled the place after the remains of Severodonetsk were taken.
Few civilians, charred buildings in Ukraine's Lysychansk after capture by Russia

In Photos: Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in Ruins After Russian Capture

"next to no damage". Good to know you're still so reliably wrong.
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:22 AM   #2373
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I guess if your baseline is smaller Russian cities then perhaps they don't look so bad

https://www.skratch.world/post/noril...ssing-on-earth
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:32 AM   #2374
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Azovstal is an exception from the rule. This is where the (real) Nazis dug in for months, and it was a fortress built in cold war times to withstand a nuclear attack. Mariupol has been reduced to rubbles, but most other cities like for example Kharson haven't. Next to no fighting there.
Your characterization of damage is unreliable.

No, that's not fair. It's reliably wrong.

Quote:
And in Mariupol the rebuilding is going on at fast pace. The first keys to (free of charge) apartments in new shiny apartment buildings have been handed over a week or two ago to families with many children.
Apartments are not industrial capacity. Russia will not rebuild the plant, and even admits that. They claim they will build a "technology park" on the ruins, but who the **** are they kidding? Russia has virtually no technology. They can still build jet engines better than the Chinese can, but that's about it, and they're not going to put any of that in Mariupol. They might make a "park" there, but there won't be any technology to fill it.

Quote:
These oblasts will be treated like Crimea, where the current state is manyfold better than what it was after decades of Ukrainian rule.
One wonders why you think Putin will treat captured Ukrainian territory better than he treats Russian territory.
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:43 AM   #2375
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Ukraine applies for NATO membership... probably gonna need to kick Hungary out to get them in. Wonder if Zelensky spoke to Erdogan about it the other day??

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV..._accession_on/


Looks like the encirclement of Lyman is nearly complete, video of busted Russian armored units and dead infantry on the road (obviously NSFW, but nowhere near the most graphic video I've seen).

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV..._yampil_se_of/
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:56 AM   #2376
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It's a nice symbolic gesture, but Ukrainians still need to kick Russia out of their country before joining NATO, and that probably includes Crimea, unless Ukraine wants to give up on it.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:01 AM   #2377
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Maybe it is, I took that from my mind. Your source claims Donetzk and Lugansk have a quarter of the industrial capacity of former Ukraine. There are four oblasts added to Russia today, including the largest Nuclear plant in Europe (which the Ukrainians are still attacking) etc. A very safe guess is that the four oblasts have far more than half of the industrial capacity of former Ukraine. The bread basket, your source is right, is further west, as I alluded to.

Point is, the post I was replying to shows a fundamental lack of knowledge about the situation.
You don't need to say "former Ukraine". It's just "Ukraine". Those four oblasts are still part of it.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:05 AM   #2378
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"Give me everything I want, and then we'll negotiate."

That's not how negotiation works.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:05 AM   #2379
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Azovstal is an exception from the rule. This is where the (real) Nazis dug in for months, ...
#oysteinbookmark to archive the post where CE admits that Ukraine is generally run and defended NOT by "real nazis", so by non-nazis.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:11 AM   #2380
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I can't see what's changed to make Ukraine apply to NATO. I mean, who wouldn't want to be part of the world's strongest military alliance, but that's not what I'm getting at.

The conditions preventing their accession are the same as they were 2 days ago:
- There is still conflict on their territory (is this a signal they're going to cede territory? So far, evidence says no)
- Hungary may not approve
- Even more hawkish democracies may start to develop fatigue

I'm assuming it's symbolic. Zelensky will say, "Fine, we accept we're not likely to get in, but while we're waiting for it to be formally rejected, we're fighting for you, so can we have some more weapons, please?"
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:12 AM   #2381
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post

Your first link shows some buildings in the direct city center, which of course was the location of some fighting. Your second link shows some graffiti, a destroyed car and a small chapel likely accidentally hit by some artillery. That is indeed "next to nothing" compared to what you wanted to deliver me of widespread destruction of industrial infrastructure. You can read about a visit to the two cities right after the Ukrainians fled here.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:18 AM   #2382
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
I can't see what's changed to make Ukraine apply to NATO. I mean, who wouldn't want to be part of the world's strongest military alliance, but that's not what I'm getting at.

I believe that earlier in the war, right at the beginning even, Zelensky had offered to cease efforts to join NATO. This interview from March:

In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership
Quote:
In another apparent nod aimed at placating Moscow, Zelensky said he is open to "compromise" on the status of two breakaway pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin recognized as independent just before unleashing the invasion on February 24.

"I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelensky said in an interview aired Monday night on ABC News

But Russia has escalated, so Ukraine is now responding by reverting back to a desired path to NATO membership.

You're right that other conditions for Ukraine's ability to join NATO have not changed, but this does show a public policy shift within the Zelensky administration.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:23 AM   #2383
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The demise of the vile Russian state cannot come fast enough for many, many reasons. But one minor benefit to which I'm looking forward is that it will hopefully put a dent in the fetid stupidity and lies that their most mindless supporters keep parroting.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:23 AM   #2384
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Surely that is crazy, with about 137 different ethnicities in Russia alone...?
Why would the number reduce things? If anything, I would expect the number to be used to 1) stoke fears of Demographic change, which enables and justifies nasty forms of discrimination, and 2) keep the minority ethnicities divided and thus easier to run roughshod over.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
As expected, Putin has claimed four new Russian provinces.

There was some doubt whether he was claiming all of the four oblasts or just the occupied portions.
Some doubt? I take it as him claiming the whole oblasts but leaving himself a bit of weasel room.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:23 AM   #2385
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Originally Posted by Daald View Post
Not true. I declared those oblasts part of Daald's Peoples Republic after holding a referendum in my bathroom. I expect them to be handed to me as soon as this conflict is over.
Sorry, but the day before whatever day you did that, I claimed them, in the time honored manner of licking them, as extra storage so I can collect more guitars and amplifiers without further upsetting Mrs. Zygote.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:24 AM   #2386
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
I can't see what's changed to make Ukraine apply to NATO. I mean, who wouldn't want to be part of the world's strongest military alliance, but that's not what I'm getting at.

The conditions preventing their accession are the same as they were 2 days ago:
- There is still conflict on their territory (is this a signal they're going to cede territory? So far, evidence says no)
- Hungary may not approve
- Even more hawkish democracies may start to develop fatigue

I'm assuming it's symbolic. Zelensky will say, "Fine, we accept we're not likely to get in, but while we're waiting for it to be formally rejected, we're fighting for you, so can we have some more weapons, please?"
Maybe its something like Ukraine has now kicked Russia out of all the territory that Russia has not unilaterally declared to be Russian. So if Ukraine joins NATO and Russia attacks any of the remaining portion of Ukraine then article 5 can be declared? I dunno, I'm spitballing, but its interesting that this comes right after Zelensky and Erdogan had an apparently good and constructive talk. Turkey is of course too important to kick out of NATO, the other pro Russian country, Hungary I don't think is. But I do not know the mechanism in place to kick a country out.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:24 AM   #2387
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SFW

I took this post from my own mind.

Done reading? Okay, give it back. Cmon. Let's have it.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:28 AM   #2388
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The thing is, now even if Ukraine drives Russia completely out of the occupied territories and Putin's successor signs an armistice, Ukraine will never be safe without being part of NATO, because any future Russian irredentist could just restart the war, on the grounds that Ukraine is occupying Russian territory. So Zelenskyy really has no choice.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:30 AM   #2389
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
The demise of the vile Russian state cannot come fast enough for many, many reasons. But one minor benefit to which I'm looking forward is that it will hopefully put a dent in the fetid stupidity and lies that their most mindless supporters keep parroting.
Sadly, if Putin were to drop dead/be hanged in Red Square/**** off to North Korea this afternoon, the sorts of people who mindlessly follow his cult would simply find another bully to tether all their hopes and dreams to. It's not like cult members have a history of suddenly coming to their senses when the cult leader fails in front of them. There's probably a queue of wannabes waiting for Vlad to snuff it so they can fill the totalitarian vacuum he leaves behind.

Oh wait, you meant... Never mind.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:37 AM   #2390
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Russian military: we're ******* hopeless against well armed resistance... hmm how about we murder some civilians trying to bring humanitarian aide, that'll really get the world on our side. Scum of the ******* earth.
NSFW:
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:55 AM   #2391
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
The thing is, now even if Ukraine drives Russia completely out of the occupied territories and Putin's successor signs an armistice, Ukraine will never be safe without being part of NATO, because any future Russian irredentist could just restart the war, on the grounds that Ukraine is occupying Russian territory. So Zelenskyy really has no choice.
Thanks much and well said.

I expect that if Putin actually started his stupid war against Ukraine in order to keep Ukraine out of NATO, then Putin has made a most grievous error because it now looks like the only way that Putin will be able to keep Ukraine out of NATO, is for Putin to wage war with with both Ukraine and NATO, and then win to win that war with with Ukraine and NATO in order to force his terms onto both Ukraine and NATO.

And of course, owing to the miserable failure of Russia to win its war current with Ukraine, a nation which is a mere fraction of the size of Russia, then it is highly unlikely that Putin would be able to win some sort of war that is waged against both Ukraine and NATO.

As a result, it is now more likely than ever that Ukraine will join, or at least be very close partners with, NATO.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:57 AM   #2392
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Originally Posted by Foster Zygote View Post
Sorry, but the day before whatever day you did that, I claimed them, in the time honored manner of licking them, as extra storage so I can collect more guitars and amplifiers without further upsetting Mrs. Zygote.
Damn....that seems to be more official than what I or Russia did.
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:59 AM   #2393
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
I can't see what's changed to make Ukraine apply to NATO. I mean, who wouldn't want to be part of the world's strongest military alliance, but that's not what I'm getting at.

The conditions preventing their accession are the same as they were 2 days ago:
- There is still conflict on their territory (is this a signal they're going to cede territory? So far, evidence says no)
- Hungary may not approve
- Even more hawkish democracies may start to develop fatigue

I'm assuming it's symbolic. Zelensky will say, "Fine, we accept we're not likely to get in, but while we're waiting for it to be formally rejected, we're fighting for you, so can we have some more weapons, please?"
I'm assuming it's symbolic also, but the symbolism is, "by the time NATO has finished its preliminary deliberations and diplomatic wrangling, we'll have ended this territorial dispute and NATO can approve our membership right away."
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:02 AM   #2394
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
Thanks much and well said.

I expect that if Putin actually started his stupid war against Ukraine in order to keep Ukraine out of NATO, then Putin has made a most grievous error because it now looks like the only way that Putin will be able to keep Ukraine out of NATO, is for Putin to wage war with with both Ukraine and NATO, and then win to win that war with with Ukraine and NATO in order to force his terms onto both Ukraine and NATO.

And of course, owing to the miserable failure of Russia to win its war current with Ukraine, a nation which is a mere fraction of the size of Russia, then it is highly unlikely that Putin would be able to win some sort of war that is waged against both Ukraine and NATO.

As a result, it is now more likely than ever that Ukraine will join, or at least be very close partners with, NATO.
RUSSIA: Ukraine can't join NATO, we dispute certain territories.

NATO: Literally no one in NATO recognizes your claim. There is no dispute.

RUSSIA: There is if we cross the border again.

Rubber stamp noises.

NATO: Cross the border of a NATO member? Sure, Karen.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:16 AM   #2395
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Ukraine applies for NATO membership... probably gonna need to kick Hungary out to get them in. Wonder if Zelensky spoke to Erdogan about it the other day??

Although kicking Hungary out of NATO (and the EU) may prove necessary at some point, as we've discussed, Orbán can't afford to piss off Poland. And vetoing Ukraine's membership in NATO would undoubtedly royally piss off Poland. So I suspect that he'll be forced to go along with Ukraine's accession.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:29 AM   #2396
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I wonder whether one of Biden's private threats to Russia included fast-tracking Ukraine's accession to NATO if Putin uses nukes.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:30 AM   #2397
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
I wonder whether one of Biden's private threats to Russia included fast-tracking Ukraine's accession to NATO if Putin uses nukes.
That is not something within Biden's gift and Putin would realise that
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:30 AM   #2398
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
I believe that earlier in the war, right at the beginning even, Zelensky had offered to cease efforts to join NATO. This interview from March:

But Russia has escalated, so Ukraine is now responding by reverting back to a desired path to NATO membership.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm assuming it's symbolic also, but the symbolism is, "by the time NATO has finished its preliminary deliberations and diplomatic wrangling, we'll have ended this territorial dispute and NATO can approve our membership right away."
My guess is that the symbolism is not so much about weapons (although I said that for a reason). I think by offering neutrality originally, he put a negotiating position on the table. I think by doing this, he's symbollically taking neutrality of the table.

Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Maybe its something like Ukraine has now kicked Russia out of all the territory that Russia has not unilaterally declared to be Russian. So if Ukraine joins NATO and Russia attacks any of the remaining portion of Ukraine then article 5 can be declared? I dunno, I'm spitballing, but its interesting that this comes right after Zelensky and Erdogan had an apparently good and constructive talk. Turkey is of course too important to kick out of NATO, the other pro Russian country, Hungary I don't think is. But I do not know the mechanism in place to kick a country out.
This particular scenario can't play out, so I don't suspect it's even in play. NATO is NOT going to Article 5 over this. They would have to create the condtions for an accession and a fresh conflict.

ETA:
Quote:
I wonder whether one of Biden's private threats to Russia included fast-tracking Ukraine's accession to NATO if Putin uses nukes.
Seconded, as not being within Biden's considerable power. In some respects, Biden is the single most powerful individual in the world. In other respects, though, due to the very structure of democracies and the international relations between democracies, his power is quite limited. Dictators have more individual power to enact things according to their whim, but they have significantly less institutional (including fire)power at their disposal.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:34 AM   #2399
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
That is not something within Biden's gift and Putin would realise that

Of course, but the US obviously has tremendous influence over the alliance.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:36 AM   #2400
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Possibly I should have said that Biden may have threatened to come out strongly in favor of Ukraine's rapid accession to NATO.
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