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Old 28th September 2022, 04:03 PM   #41
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When I lived in the panhandle of Florida, one of my coworkers decided to evacuate his family to Walt Disney World when a hurricane aimed our direction. They ended up spending their mini-vacation in their hotel room when the storm decided to go a different direction.

That was back when predicting where a hurricane will go was not nearly as good as it is now.

Storms that take a hard turn like Ian did are hard to predict because a small change in when and how fast they change direction usually makes a large difference in where they end up. Irma was a good example of that where the predicted track kept shifting from one coast of Florida to the other. But, if you look at the cone, you see that they really did a good job of predicting its path. The same goes for this one. Although it came ashore a little more south of where it was predicted a few days ago (shades of Charlie), it still was well within the cone published back then.
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Old 28th September 2022, 04:17 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by jadebox View Post
When I lived in the panhandle of Florida, one of my coworkers decided to evacuate his family to Walt Disney World when a hurricane aimed our direction. They ended up spending their mini-vacation in their hotel room when the storm decided to go a different direction.

That was back when predicting where a hurricane will go was not nearly as good as it is now.

Storms that take a hard turn like Ian did are hard to predict because a small change in when and how fast they change direction usually makes a large difference in where they end up. Irma was a good example of that where the predicted track kept shifting from one coast of Florida to the other. But, if you look at the cone, you see that they really did a good job of predicting its path. The same goes for this one. Although it came ashore a little more south of where it was predicted a few days ago (shades of Charlie), it still was well within the cone published back then.
Definitely. The center of Fiona's track only wobbled minimally in the 3 days prior to landfall in Nova Scotia. Unfortunately that track center was directly over us and that is where it went.
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Old 28th September 2022, 04:24 PM   #43
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I hope for the sake of Floridians that De Santis does better than we might otherwise wish him to, and that he loses his bid for the Presidency despite, rather than because of, his performance here.

On the other hand it would not bother me even a tiny bit if Mar a Lago were blown and flooded right off the map.
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:41 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by autumn1971 View Post
...I live in Gainesville, about dead center between the coasts; but we’re still only a few dozen feet above sea-level at best, with springs, rivers, swamps, and creeks everywhere...
I'm amazed you're able to post that message. Do you still have power or are you using your phone?

I have two daughters in the Miami area and my wife and I were very concerned about them and their families. We finally made phone contact with both around 6pm Eastern and they said they're fine, conditions are not too bad. It rained a lot yesterday in the Miami area but today has been cloudy but dry though a bit windy at times. National Weather Service shows that since 4pm (when Ian made landfall near Ft. Meyers) Miami has gotten NO rain with moderate winds, only gusting to around 30 mph.
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:47 PM   #45
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During Irma our cell phones worked the whole time. It made things much less stressful than back in the old days when all we would have once the power went out was a battery powered radio. Verizon even waived charges for going over your allotted data.

It is dark now near Orlando and there are occasional bands moving through with gusts of up to, I would guess, about 40 mph. Lots of rain and just a little thunder and lightning. The worst is expected to get here early tomorrow morning. I expect we will lose power around daybreak.

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Old 28th September 2022, 07:00 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
I'm amazed you're able to post that message. Do you still have power or are you using your phone?

I have two daughters in the Miami area and my wife and I were very concerned about them and their families. We finally made phone contact with both around 6pm Eastern and they said they're fine, conditions are not too bad. It rained a lot yesterday in the Miami area but today has been cloudy but dry though a bit windy at times. National Weather Service shows that since 4pm (when Ian made landfall near Ft. Meyers) Miami has gotten NO rain with moderate winds, only gusting to around 30 mph.
The eastward turn puts the storm well south of me. Just damp and a bit gusty right now.
Also surprisingly cold, in the 60s now.
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Old 28th September 2022, 07:12 PM   #47
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Right now radar shows the storm is mostly south of Tampa and Orlando, with the worst part inland near Sebring. Good luck and best wishes to everyone in The Sunshine State.

Well, almost everyone.
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Old 29th September 2022, 04:34 AM   #48
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After slamming into Ft. Myers, Ian (downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm), is approaching Jacksonville in northeast Florida.

Below left projected path, right a real time radar track.
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Old 29th September 2022, 05:25 AM   #49
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So far we have been very fortunate. We still have power. One tree and a section of fence are down in our yard which is also covered with small limbs and other debris.

The storm didn't turn towards us so we avoided the worst of it and its effects on us should pretty much end hours sooner than if it had passed right over us.

A lot of others in Central Florida have it much worse. One of my coworkers texted that water is flooding his house.

Rivers and lakes in the area are expected to continue to rise. The St. Johns river flows north from just south of here to Jacksonville. It is expected to continue to rise as water flows into it. The same is true for many smaller rivers and lakes in the area.

I don't think the rising water will directly affect our home, but will definitely be an issue for some places near us.

Last edited by jadebox; 29th September 2022 at 05:26 AM.
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Old 29th September 2022, 07:29 AM   #50
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I see that the "street shark" has arrived in Florida. It ends up swimming along a flooded road after every hurricane. This time it's personal!

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/hur...l-01ge2swzh657
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Old 29th September 2022, 09:59 AM   #51
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MY sister lives in Jacksonville.
Some neighborhoods are having power outages. Not hers.

I grew up there. Hurricanes were like an annual event.
I only remember a couple of times when we had to evacuate.

Then it was typhoons in Asia. Smart people stayed indoors. School and businesses closed.
But once I had a stupid American employer who had me go out to do a company English Conversation class anyway.
Of course the company in question (It was a law firm) was closed.
But I got to see flying debris that could have struck me.
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Old 29th September 2022, 11:02 AM   #52
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Right after I posted that our power was still on ... we lost power.

Cell phone service is also sketchy. My DSL connection is working for now. We keep a landline mostly for situations like this.

I wasn't thinking it was over this morning, but didn't expect the backside of the storm to be as bad as it has been. Since about nine AM the rain has continued and the wind was steady at about 30 to 40 mph. It is starting to let up now.

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Old 29th September 2022, 11:04 AM   #53
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Since Climate Change can't have any impact on the severity of the hurricane, the only logical explanation is insufficient praying.
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Old 29th September 2022, 11:49 AM   #54
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I think JoeMorgue is from that area.
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Old 29th September 2022, 12:23 PM   #55
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The good news is Ian has weakened considerably after moving across land. Jacksonville is receiving less rain and somewhat more moderate winds than expected. Flooding remains a major hazard, however. From the Florida Times-Union news site.
Quote:
National Weather Service meteorologist Alex Boothe explained at the [Mayor's] press conference that although the city will see much less rain than expected, water from Central Florida "is going to channel down and up through downtown." This, combined with the tides, could cause river flooding through Sunday...As many as 22,000 people lost power, JEA [Jacksonville Electric Authority] CEO Jay Stowe said Thursday, but the number is now down to about 6,500. Crews will stay out making repairs unless wind speeds reach 30 miles per hour – as is currently happening at the Beaches, stalling reconnections until the winds slow, Stowe said. Times-Union news link
A real time NWS weather report shows that as of 3pm EDST Jacksonville [Naval Air Station] had recorded about an inch of rain since midnight, with winds gusting to about 50 mph. Currently Jacksonville Naval Air Station is seeing light rain with winds at a steady 30 mph gusting over 40 mph.

Below is an NWS radar track from about 300pm Eastern time.
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Old 29th September 2022, 12:58 PM   #56
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"The full scope of Ian's destruction is still unclear." - NPR. Below, an area in Ft Myers where Ian made landfall Wednesday.
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Old 29th September 2022, 05:24 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by autumn1971 View Post
As much as I make fun of my home state and its idiots in residence, (including myself,) the fact that is Florida actually makes a huge difference.



There’s nowhere to run.

We don’t really have anywhere far enough inland to go to, and there are only two north-south highways with the capacity for evacuation. You either drive 600 miles to safety a week before landfall or you stay put.

I live in Gainesville, about dead center between the coasts; but we’re still only a few dozen feet above sea-level at best, with springs, rivers, swamps, and creeks everywhere.

I’ve had a house flooded, my middle school flooded, a tree fall on a trailer I lived in, etc.



It’s hunker down in place or hunker down on a highway
America's Bangladesh.
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Old 29th September 2022, 05:27 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I think JoeMorgue is from that area.
Yep. Out by the airport. Power's flickered a lot and went down for about 2 hours, other than that nothing. Seems like it went much further east then we were fearing.
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Old 29th September 2022, 07:47 PM   #59
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The good news is, Ian has left Florida. The bad news is, Ian's over the Atlantic, gaining strength and headed for South Carolina.

CBS News reports:
Quote:
Ian regained its strength and became a hurricane – again – on Thursday evening. The storm is forecast to hit South Carolina, where a hurricane warning was issued for the entire coast, after leaving a massive wake of destruction in Florida. Ian's center was located about 215 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina, as of 8 p.m. Thursday.

Ian is forecast to make landfall somewhere near Charleston, South Carolina, at about 2 p.m. Friday. CBS News link
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:20 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
"The full scope of Ian's destruction is still unclear." - NPR. Below, an area in Ft Myers where Ian made landfall Wednesday.
How does anyplace recover from this? Houses and roads and bridges that were built over years, sometimes decades, are gone in hours. How can people rebuild? How can they even remove the debris? And apparently a large percentage of residents don't have flood insurance, which means that they are pretty much wiped out financially. I wonder how many people just pack up and move away to start over.
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:35 PM   #61
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And, of course, Floridians will rebuild in the way most likely to get their property crushed in the next Hurricane, all thanks to government insurance.
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Old 29th September 2022, 08:36 PM   #62
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How do you like those socialist government handouts now, DeSantis?
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Old 29th September 2022, 09:48 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
How does anyplace recover from this? Houses and roads and bridges that were built over years, sometimes decades, are gone in hours. How can people rebuild? How can they even remove the debris? And apparently a large percentage of residents don't have flood insurance, which means that they are pretty much wiped out financially. I wonder how many people just pack up and move away to start over.
Humans tend to be resilient. While not on the same scale, I lived in a small town that was hit by an F3 tornado. Took out the fire department (only 1), the High school gym, most of the junior high, most of main street, and quite a few homes. Within a year, the school was rebuilt (bigger than it was), the fire department was rebuilt (bigger and better building than before), and the homes and businesses were back.

We tend to be stubborn and defiant, as a species. When Mother Nature kicks us in the nuts, we buy a cup and go for round two
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Old 30th September 2022, 03:52 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
How does anyplace recover from this? Houses and roads and bridges that were built over years, sometimes decades, are gone in hours. How can people rebuild? How can they even remove the debris? And apparently a large percentage of residents don't have flood insurance, which means that they are pretty much wiped out financially. I wonder how many people just pack up and move away to start over.
Natural disasters in the USA and elsewhere are a regular occurrence. Recently in the USA - Andrew, Sandy, Harvey, Katrina. There is ample evidence from the recent past that people and places do recover, and recover relatively quickly. I believe the USA has a federal department known as FEMA whose sole reason for existing is to manage recovery from such crises. It will definitely be hard for many people who will have to make some difficult decisions but recovery is inevitable.
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Old 30th September 2022, 04:14 AM   #65
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Getting a major miss from Ian. My son lives on Tybee Island, Georgia. Rain and blustery there. I loved him and south in SE NC, rain and blustery here. It will pass north east of him and south west of me.

Fine by me. I love thunderstorms and the like but Matthew a few years ago tore us a new one. Once is enough.
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Old 30th September 2022, 05:25 AM   #66
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Ian is approaching South Carolina. The National Hurricane Center reports as of 8am Eastern:
Quote:
The center of Hurricane Ian is moving north toward the coast of South Carolina, with maximum sustained winds near 85 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said in an update. “Rapid weakening is expected after landfall,” the center said, though parts the Carolinas were expected to see life-threatening storm surge. By Friday night, Ian is forecast to move farther inland and across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina.
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Old 30th September 2022, 07:32 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
And apparently a large percentage of residents don't have flood insurance...

Do you have statistics or a source on this? Around here you can't get or maintain a mortgage on a house in a potential flood zone without flood insurance. And I can't imagine it would be different in Florida, because it's a matter of mortgage lenders' policies rather than law.

I can see there being a lot of retirees who move to homes they've bought outright (no mortgage, so no mandatory flood coverage). But is that really a large percentage? I know that's a Florida cliché but is it true to that extent?
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:08 AM   #68
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As the Times article reports, lack of flood insurance is going to be a big problem in Florida, especially in areas considered to be outside the floodplain but where Ian did a lot of damage. Ninety percent of those residents DON'T have flood insurance.
Quote:
In the counties whose residents were told to evacuate, just 18.5 percent of homes have coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program, according to Milliman, an actuarial firm that works with the program. Within those counties, homes inside the government-designated floodplain, the area most exposed to flooding, 47.3 percent of homes have flood insurance, Milliman found. In areas outside the floodplain — many of which are still likely to have been damaged by rain or storm surge from Ian — only an estimated 9.4 percent of homes have flood coverage. New York Times news link
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Old 30th September 2022, 08:46 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
As the Times article reports, lack of flood insurance is going to be a big problem in Florida, especially in areas considered to be outside the floodplain but where Ian did a lot of damage. Ninety percent of those residents DON'T have flood insurance.

Okay, that's informative. The biggest problem, I think, will be the over 50% of uninsured homes in the flood zones rather than the 90% outside them. The ones outside them will mostly be minor damage like a flooded basement or crawl space, an expense for sure but (with e.g. FEMA assistance) probably recoverable. The ones that had four feet of water in the living space (mostly in the flood zones) will be more costly, and the ones that had four feet of fast-flowing surge water causing irreparable structural damage even more so. Just counting up "damaged" homes might not give an accurate picture, but that 47% figure is very bad news.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:00 AM   #70
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If this is really a one in thousand year event like some headlines are claiming that's going to be a larger flood plain than usual. Don't know how accurate that claim is though.

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Old 30th September 2022, 09:09 AM   #71
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Ian seems to have mostly avoided Georgia but is tracking northwest into South Carolina. The bands of green are now reaching as far north as the Delmarva peninsula. ABC News reported at 11:30 Eastern time:
Quote:
Hurricane Ian is now 60 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, with sustained winds of 85 mph and even higher gusts. Conditions at landfall, which is expected after 2 p.m., are forecast to be worst in Myrtle Beach. The worst of the storm surge will be from there to the North Carolina border. More than 4 inches of rain has fallen in South Carolina so far and it is expected to continue. ABC News link
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:12 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
Okay, that's informative. The biggest problem, I think, will be the over 50% of uninsured homes in the flood zones rather than the 90% outside them. The ones outside them will mostly be minor damage like a flooded basement or crawl space, an expense for sure but (with e.g. FEMA assistance) probably recoverable.
.....

Official flood zones are mapped based on historical data. But this is being called a 500-year storm. I think it's really optimistic to hope that a lot of homes and businesses outside the flood zone weren't wrecked.
Quote:
Hundreds of thousands of Florida homes lie in flood-risk areas that are not designated as such by the federal government, leaving many homeowners vulnerable to massive out-of-pocket costs for damage after Hurricane Ian.

Nearly 350,000 properties in the state face flood hazards but are not recognized as high risks in the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood maps, according to data by First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research group.

More than half, about 186,000, are in hard-hit areas along Florida’s west coast, where residents were given mandatory evacuation orders.
https://news.yahoo.com/hundreds-thou...234959686.html

And then there's the possibility that insurers might not be able to pay up.
Quote:
For the better part of two decades, the nation’s major insurers have wanted as little to do with Florida as possible, as least when it comes to insuring homes.

That has left the market in the hands of small, in-state insurers with limited resources. Six of those companies were declared insolvent this year, even before Ian. And homeowners in the state were already paying nearly triple the national average for insurance — $4,231 a year per policy, compared to a US average of $1,544, according to data from the Insurance Information Institute.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/30/b...-insurance-ian

Last edited by Bob001; 30th September 2022 at 09:19 AM.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:24 AM   #73
Rolfe
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I woke up this morning to heavy rain and a fairly high wind. Nothing even remotely dangerous, but a horrible day. They are blaming this on Ian, but I wouldn't have thought the effects of a hurricane currently hitting the SE USA would be felt in Scotland at the same time.
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Old 30th September 2022, 09:54 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I woke up this morning to heavy rain and a fairly high wind. Nothing even remotely dangerous, but a horrible day. They are blaming this on Ian, but I wouldn't have thought the effects of a hurricane currently hitting the SE USA would be felt in Scotland at the same time.
Isn’t high wind and heavy rain a normal early fall day in Scotland?
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Old 30th September 2022, 10:02 AM   #75
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Not really. It was lovely yesterday. Whatever it was has passed over now anyway and it's a nice evening with a bit of a breeze.
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Old 30th September 2022, 11:03 AM   #76
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Good, but utterly insane, video of the wind damage as it happened.

https://www.fark.com/vidplayer/12581308
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Old 30th September 2022, 11:24 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
If this is really a one in thousand year event like some headlines are claiming that's going to be a larger flood plain than usual. Don't know how accurate that claim is though.
We sure seem to be having a lot of once in a century/once in a millennia storms in the last few years.
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Old 30th September 2022, 11:28 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Natural disasters in the USA and elsewhere are a regular occurrence. Recently in the USA - Andrew, Sandy, Harvey, Katrina. There is ample evidence from the recent past that people and places do recover, and recover relatively quickly. I believe the USA has a federal department known as FEMA whose sole reason for existing is to manage recovery from such crises. It will definitely be hard for many people who will have to make some difficult decisions but recovery is inevitable.

That's a nice thought, but nobody has a magic wand. New Orleans never recovered fully from Katrina, and Puerto Rico never came close to recovering from Maria. It took years to rebuild after Andrew, Sandy and Harvey. Life has changed permanently for many thousands of people.

And the Federal Emergency Management Agency sends immediate, urgent assistance -- food, water and shelter -- to people in crisis zones. It doesn't have anything to do with long-term recovery, which is largely a state and local function.
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Old 30th September 2022, 11:28 AM   #79
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Found a good link for the one in a thousand year event claim. Claims to be based on NOAA data but not clear NOAA itself said so.

https://abc17news.com/news/2022/09/2...e-destructive/
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Old 30th September 2022, 11:46 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
We sure seem to be having a lot of once in a century/once in a millennia storms in the last few years.

A *MILLENNIUM*.


/pedant
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