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Old 18th May 2022, 04:38 AM   #1
SuburbanTurkey
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2022 US midterm elections

Centrist democratic candidates take a resounding loss in primary elections, despite big money interests putting their fat thumbs on the scales

Quote:
Big money groups spent some $15 million in those three House races – two in Oregon and one in Pennsylvania – while outside progressive groups managed just over $2 million, yet prevailed in all three. In North Carolina, the super PACs had better luck, spending $7 million dollars against Erica Smith and Nida Allam. The spending came from AIPAC, Democratic Majority for Israel, and Mainstream Democrats, the super PAC organized and funded by LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman.
https://theintercept.com/2022/05/18/...n-sinema-wing/

Rep. Summer Lee fended off a primary challenge from an anti-union attorney backed by big out of state money.

Jamie McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Representative Kurt Schrader, described as "Oregon's Manchin".

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman handily beat Conor Lamb*, who received endorsements from party leadership.

Quote:
The stunning wins come as the party debates who is to blame for President Biden’s sinking approval rating and increasingly dire forecasts of upcoming midterm losses. Party establishment figures have pointed the finger at the left for making unreasonable demands couched in slogans like “Defund the Police” that turn off voters. The progressive wing has countered that Biden’s popularity has sunk as centrist Democrats have slowly murdered his agenda, while the left has fought to enact it.
Do-nothing liberalism, it turns out, is not popular with voters despite drawing in big money support.

*This one is especially funny. Lamb, who was cooked up in the Dem's best centrist ghoul lab, got washed by a guy in gym shorts. Fetterman looks exactly like any of the guys you'd find standing outside a Sheetz gas station at 1:30 am on a Wednesday. Pennsylvania sending their largest, wettest son up to the big leagues. You love to see it.

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Old 18th May 2022, 04:51 AM   #2
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On the other side:

Madison Cawthorn got absolutely washed in his primary, almost certainly a result of the truly impressive and sustained hit job in retaliation for talking **** about his colleagues and their cocaine orgies.
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Old 18th May 2022, 05:05 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Centrist democratic candidates take a resounding loss in primary elections, despite big money interests putting their fat thumbs on the scales



https://theintercept.com/2022/05/18/...n-sinema-wing/

Rep. Summer Lee fended off a primary challenge from an anti-union attorney backed by big out of state money.

Jamie McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Representative Kurt Schrader, described as "Oregon's Manchin".

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman handily beat Conor Lamb*, who received endorsements from party leadership.



Do-nothing liberalism, it turns out, is not popular with voters despite drawing in big money support.

*This one is especially funny. Lamb, who was cooked up in the Dem's best centrist ghoul lab, got washed by a guy in gym shorts. Fetterman looks exactly like any of the guys you'd find standing outside a Sheetz gas station at 1:30 am on a Wednesday. Lamb left a swing-seat to run a red-baiting campaign and got absolutely thrashed. You love to see it.
Well then, let's hope they go on to win the actual election...
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Old 18th May 2022, 05:11 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Ethan Thane Athen View Post
Well then, let's hope they go on to win the actual election...
Hopefully the party gives them as much support as they gave their opponents during the primary. Surely the Dems wouldn't behave self-destructively out of spite.
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Old 18th May 2022, 05:21 AM   #5
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In my experience of the Labour Party in the UK, centreists are more likely to vote for a left wing candidate than left wingers are to vote for a centreist.
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Old 18th May 2022, 05:27 AM   #6
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Democratic big donors are to the left of the median Democrat. They are not advocates of centrism
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Old 18th May 2022, 05:56 AM   #7
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It's pretty clear Democrats will lose the House. Senate is still iffy, IMO.

We're still in a lot of primaries. Yes PA and NC is important. I'm kind of hoping for the Trump-bumps to win because I think they'll be weak in the general. Of course there's always a red and blue (I live in one), but just talking about the purples.
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Old 18th May 2022, 06:01 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
It's pretty clear Democrats will lose the House. Senate is still iffy, IMO.

We're still in a lot of primaries. Yes PA and NC is important. I'm kind of hoping for the Trump-bumps to win because I think they'll be weak in the general. Of course there's always a red and blue (I live in one), but just talking about the purples.
There's the general trend of history that shows that the President's party usually suffers in these midterms.

I also don't think you can overestimate how devastating it is for the Democratic party, which nominally has full control of government, to be so paralyzed by conservative rogues within their own party. There are numerous crisis in our society unfolding right now and the party is totally ineffective in even passing the most anodyne remedies thanks to the Sinema-Manchin wing.

Politically speaking, it would probably be better to be in the minority, where at least they could blame Republicans, than be repeatedly shown to be incompetent, unworkable coalition constantly tripping over its own feet.
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Old 18th May 2022, 06:08 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
On the other side:

Madison Cawthorn got absolutely washed in his primary, almost certainly a result of the truly impressive and sustained hit job in retaliation for talking **** about his colleagues and their cocaine orgies.
He's an unperson now in the GOP.
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Old 18th May 2022, 06:10 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
He's an unperson now in the GOP.
It's noteworthy that there are still unforgiveable sins that the GOP will discipline members over.

Being an open white nationalist that peddles conspiracy theories about stolen elections or (((globalists))) replacing the population is fine, but disparaging party elders is not.
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Old 18th May 2022, 06:22 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
There's the general trend of history that shows that the President's party usually suffers in these midterms.

I also don't think you can overestimate how devastating it is for the Democratic party, which nominally has full control of government, to be so paralyzed by conservative rogues within their own party. There are numerous crisis in our society unfolding right now and the party is totally ineffective in even passing the most anodyne remedies thanks to the Sinema-Manchin wing.

Politically speaking, it would probably be better to be in the minority, where at least they could blame Republicans, than be repeatedly shown to be incompetent, unworkable coalition constantly tripping over its own feet.
Manchin is not a conservative Democrats. Was everyone on this forum born in the last three years? Dude is backing policies to the left of Obama.
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Old 18th May 2022, 06:39 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Manchin is not a conservative Democrats. Was everyone on this forum born in the last three years? Dude is backing policies to the left of Obama.
He is to the right on Abortion, Climate Change Policy, and Social Spending, and tops it off by putting Senate procedures above conservative efforts to rig elections and effectively abolish democracy. While he does have a bunch of left-wing policies that he supports, on the top three or four issues that liberals worry about, he is effectively a Republican.
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Old 18th May 2022, 06:41 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Random View Post
He is to the right on Abortion, Climate Change Policy, and Social Spending,
He is to the left side or center on those issues.

Like the abortion bill he voted against... opposition of that bill comes from the center and just to the left of center.

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Old 18th May 2022, 06:44 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Random View Post
He is to the right on Abortion, Climate Change Policy, and Social Spending, and tops it off by putting Senate procedures above conservative efforts to rig elections and effectively abolish democracy. While he does have a bunch of left-wing policies that he supports, on the top three or four issues that liberals worry about, he is effectively a Republican.
And in 2 more years from this day, it will be interesting to see how well he can dance.
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Old 18th May 2022, 07:44 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In my experience of the Labour Party in the UK, centreists are more likely to vote for a left wing candidate than left wingers are to vote for a centreist.
Out if curiosity, Don dude, do you folk over there pronounce it with 3 syllables or 2? I read "centreist" (which my auto-corrupt balks at) as being pronounced with 3 syllables. The usual spelling, "centrist" (which my auto-corrupt snuggles up to) is pronounced with 2 syllables.
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Old 18th May 2022, 08:30 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
Out if curiosity, Don dude, do you folk over there pronounce it with 3 syllables or 2? I read "centreist" (which my auto-corrupt balks at) as being pronounced with 3 syllables. The usual spelling, "centrist" (which my auto-corrupt snuggles up to) is pronounced with 2 syllables.
Yup, three syllables sen-tur-ists
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Old 18th May 2022, 09:09 AM   #17
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what is he left-wing about? Keeping the government open just long enough to increase the military budget?
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Old 18th May 2022, 09:12 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Centrist democratic candidates take a resounding loss in primary elections, despite big money interests putting their fat thumbs on the scales



https://theintercept.com/2022/05/18/...n-sinema-wing/

Rep. Summer Lee fended off a primary challenge from an anti-union attorney backed by big out of state money.

Jamie McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Representative Kurt Schrader, described as "Oregon's Manchin".

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman handily beat Conor Lamb*, who received endorsements from party leadership.



Do-nothing liberalism, it turns out, is not popular with voters despite drawing in big money support.

*This one is especially funny. Lamb, who was cooked up in the Dem's best centrist ghoul lab, got washed by a guy in gym shorts. Fetterman looks exactly like any of the guys you'd find standing outside a Sheetz gas station at 1:30 am on a Wednesday. Pennsylvania sending their largest, wettest son up to the big leagues. You love to see it.
To clarify, its not popular with primary voters in off year elections. Not surprising really. Primaries are dominated by the vocal minority on the extremes.
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Old 18th May 2022, 09:32 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
To clarify, its not popular with primary voters in off year elections. Not surprising really. Primaries are dominated by the vocal minority on the extremes.
I dunno, it's hard to look at the PA race being a total blowout and not think there's something there.

Conor Lamb is exactly the kind of well funded, widely endorsed, glossy, and inoffensive candidate that beltway operators insist have to be supported because they're "electable" and he got absolutely destroyed. He lost every county in the state, including his home turf. It went 61-29 against him.

Seems like a "the emperor has no clothes" moment. Maybe the DNC machine has no idea what the voters actually want in a candidate, and people should stop deferring to the conventional wisdom that keeps backing losers.

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Old 18th May 2022, 09:41 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
what is he left-wing about? Keeping the government open just long enough to increase the military budget?
Who? Manchin? Not left wing, but left of center

expanded child tax credits, expanded pre k, support of roe v Wade,etc
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Old 18th May 2022, 12:47 PM   #21
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Once we get actual candidates bashing it out abortion will be a big issue.
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Old 18th May 2022, 03:32 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post

Politically speaking, it would probably be better to be in the minority, where at least they could blame Republicans, than be repeatedly shown to be incompetent, unworkable coalition constantly tripping over its own feet.
Yeah...politically speaking, actually I think it would be better to be majority. Blame-game stuff isn't all that effective or societally healthy when I've seen it (from each side). My humble opinion.
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Old 18th May 2022, 03:39 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
It's pretty clear Democrats will lose the House. Senate is still iffy, IMO.

We're still in a lot of primaries. Yes PA and NC is important. I'm kind of hoping for the Trump-bumps to win because I think they'll be weak in the general. Of course there's always a red and blue (I live in one), but just talking about the purples.
No it is not "pretty sure". I don't see the point in all this doomsday **** repeating what the news media spits out.

It's too soon to tell. That redistricting wasn't a landslide for the GOP. Even the court shutting down NY redistricting, it wasn't as if the GOP got some magical gains there. Many states aren't settled, like Florida.

So at least wait a bit to make those stupid 'mimicking the news' assumptions.
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Old 18th May 2022, 05:04 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Who? Manchin? Not left wing, but left of center

expanded child tax credits, expanded pre k, support of roe v Wade,etc
Serious question...would West Virginia elect a Democratic Senator left of Manchin? Could be a better-than-nothing thing, like it or not.
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Old 18th May 2022, 05:09 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Serious question...would West Virginia elect a Democratic Senator left of Manchin? Could be a better-than-nothing thing, like it or not.
Why would Democrats want to? After years of not being able to, they could pass a means tested expanded child tax credit.If you told a liberal 15 years ago that you made it that far you would be congratulated.
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Old 18th May 2022, 05:09 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Serious question...would West Virginia elect a Democratic Senator left of Manchin? Could be a better-than-nothing thing, like it or not.
Probably not, no. It's just annoying to have cargo-cult centrists in your party, reaching out to the other side in the spirit of bipartisan cooperation, when the other side is accusing you of all being pedophiles and child murderers. The temptation to throw them out is enormous...
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Old 18th May 2022, 06:36 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Why would Democrats want to? After years of not being able to, they could pass a means tested expanded child tax credit.If you told a liberal 15 years ago that you made it that far you would be congratulated.
This makes the faulty assumption that Mansion would actually vote for it just because that's what he says he'd do.

He lies. A lot. About exactly these things.
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Old 18th May 2022, 06:39 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Serious question...would West Virginia elect a Democratic Senator left of Manchin? Could be a better-than-nothing thing, like it or not.
Manchin's seat isn't up in 2022. But IMO, much as he seems like a Republican, his claim being a Democrat means we have Schumer and not McConnell controlling the calendar.

I say ignore him, don't count on his votes, and don't piss Manchin off.
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Old 18th May 2022, 07:40 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Centrist democratic candidates take a resounding loss in primary elections, despite big money interests putting their fat thumbs on the scales
Having heard since before Bernie that progressives are death, that's great news.
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Old 18th May 2022, 10:44 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Centrist democratic candidates take a resounding loss in primary elections, despite big money interests putting their fat thumbs on the scales



https://theintercept.com/2022/05/18/...n-sinema-wing/

Rep. Summer Lee fended off a primary challenge from an anti-union attorney backed by big out of state money.

Jamie McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Representative Kurt Schrader, described as "Oregon's Manchin".
Neither of those two races has been called yet, and even if she prevails in the primary Lee is going to get swamped in the general, since the Cook Political Report puts this district as R+20.
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Old 19th May 2022, 04:24 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Once we get actual candidates bashing it out abortion will be a big issue.
One primary to watch is in Texas, anti-abortion Dem incumbent rep Cuellar is facing a progressive challenger, Cisneros.

Dem leadership has lined up to endorse Cuellar even as he has reaffirmed his anti-abortion stance in the pending demise of Roe. As far as the party leadership is concerned, being anti-abortion is not a big deal.

*May 24 is primary day for this one.

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Old 19th May 2022, 05:36 AM   #32
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I'm not liking how most elections still seem to be Proxy Trump, as if we're getting sideways asked if we want Trump as President again in most of the elections taking place.

It makes me feel like the Cult isn't loosing steam.
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Old 19th May 2022, 05:40 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Neither of those two races has been called yet, and even if she prevails in the primary Lee is going to get swamped in the general, since the Cook Political Report puts this district as R+20.
you sure about that? Seems odd to me that these big groups would be plowing money into a primary that is going to be suicide run like you describe.

Vox seems to think it's a safe Dem seat:

Quote:
Lee, one of six challengers backed by the Justice Democrats, a progressive PAC, is running to fill an open seat in Pennsylvaniaís 12th Congressional District vacated by Rep. Mike Doyle. Itís a safe Democratic seat that includes Pittsburgh and the surrounding suburbs, and itís poised to be a key pickup for progressives, should Lee win her race this week.
https://www.vox.com/23071383/summer-...bernie-sanders
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Old 19th May 2022, 07:22 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Dem leadership has lined up to endorse Cuellar even as he has reaffirmed his anti-abortion stance in the pending demise of Roe. As far as the party leadership is concerned, being anti-abortion is not a big deal.
When Bernie backed a Pro-Life Democrat for mayor of Omaha in 2017, the centrists and establishment lost their $%^&.

Funny how when progressives hold standards for politicians, it's a "purity test". When the establishment does it, it's "party unity".
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Old 19th May 2022, 08:21 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
It's pretty clear Democrats will lose the House. Senate is still iffy, IMO.

We're still in a lot of primaries. Yes PA and NC is important. I'm kind of hoping for the Trump-bumps to win because I think they'll be weak in the general. Of course there's always a red and blue (I live in one), but just talking about the purples.
On the senate side there are only 4 competitive races: GA, PA, AZ, and NV. Of those I think GA goes Republican's almost certainly. NV goes Dem almost certainly. So its down to PA and AZ. If the republicans take either of those they have 51 seats.

On the house side national polls are neck and neck.. so with a bit of gerrymandering the reps take it most likely.

ETA: Oh I suppose the dems have a chance of turning WI blue, so one more chance at keeping 50.

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Old 19th May 2022, 08:44 AM   #36
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You have to consider the second most progressive member of the Senate is a lesbian from Wisconsin. tell me what her odds were when she beat a former governor to win it in 2012. And she won by a bigger margin in 2018.

If the Democrats run as Democrats and stop apologizing and running to the right to appease what they think are "reasonable Republicans", they can win in the MidWest.
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Old 19th May 2022, 08:46 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
you sure about that? Seems odd to me that these big groups would be plowing money into a primary that is going to be suicide run like you describe.

Vox seems to think it's a safe Dem seat:



https://www.vox.com/23071383/summer-...bernie-sanders
It appears that the old 12th district was nowhere near the current one due to redistricting removing the 18th district. This current 12th district may indeed be safe Dem.
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Old 19th May 2022, 08:53 AM   #38
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Politics is 99% attitude and personality and about 1% actual politics but the policies are all we want to talk about because that just seems less dirty.

People don't dislike Democrat policies, they just don't like Democrats is the truth... maybe not most of the time but far more often then we like to admit.

Again if you ask people (even without making a distinction between Democrat/Progressive) the politics on the Left are more popular outside of one or two minor exceptions and usually by a significant margin.

What people don't like is meek, toady, milqtoast goobers who can only speak in "Focus Group."

I always said the one thing Trump got on some level in that vile malformed Misplaced 3rd Testicle he called a brain was America wanted someone to lead them. Lie to them, insult them, hell even offend them but don't be a pussy and lead them.

I still think that in spite of everything, all the talking heads, all the articles, the fact that we'll be doing on a post-mortem "How did that happen" on Trump until the Walls of Jericho fall the real reason is whatever X factor let Trump stand in front of a crowd in Iowa and go "How stupid are the people of Iowa?" what that smug troll face ****-eating grin of his and then go to win Iowa in a landslide while Hillary lost the election pretty much the moment she suggested maybe not dying in a hole digging up rocks like your daddy and his daddy before dat and then apologized for it.
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Old 19th May 2022, 09:10 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I'm not liking how most elections still seem to be Proxy Trump, as if we're getting sideways asked if we want Trump as President again in most of the elections taking place.

It makes me feel like the Cult isn't loosing steam.
I think this narrative is a bit over stated. Most of the folks he indorsed were safe bets. Then there's folks like J.D. Vance, he won the same way trump did, he got about 30% of the vote in a 5 way race, in a very Trumpy district.

And then there's the typical primary voter's generally being the more extreme base of the parties issue.

Don't get me wrong, they actually could be a referendum on Trump, I'm just not convinced.

It will be interesting when the primary comes round. I hope we have a diversity of races with Trumpists against moderates in some races and trumpists against radical dems in some, and less trumpist reps against moderates and radicals in others.
Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Politics is 99% attitude and personality and about 1% actual politics but the policies are all we want to talk about because that just seems less dirty.
.
Don't underrate the shear, "their in my tribe" bit. That's a good 50 to 75% of it, which accounts for much of Trumps support.
Since about GW. The republican base has been pissed at their leadership.
Trump ran in the primary against a dozen or so standard republican elites and won with about 50% of the vote and 60 of the delegates, but in the early races, he was winning with around 30%.

Once he was the clear winner, various cognitive biases got the party to line up behind him the way groups do.
If the Dems leadership hadn't got their act together the Bernie would be the president now and Dems would be far more radical on economics and far less radical on various minority issues right now.

Last edited by ahhell; 19th May 2022 at 09:18 AM.
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Old 19th May 2022, 09:16 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
I think this narrative is a bit over stated. Most of the folks he indorsed were safe bets. Then there's folks like J.D. Vance, he won the same way trump did, he got about 30% of the vote in a 5 way race, in a very Trumpy district.

And then there's the typical primary voter's generally being the more extreme base of the parties issue.

Don't get me wrong, they actually could be a referendum on Trump, I'm just not convinced.

It will be interesting when the primary comes round. I hope we have a diversity of races with Trumpists against moderates in some races and trumpists against radical dems in some, and less trumpist reps against moderates and radicals in others.

Don't underrate the shear, "their in my tribe" bit. That's a good 50 to 75% of it.
I would say Trump's record in the primary was pretty bad. Safe bets aside, the Trump endorsement wasn't the boost it might have been in years past.

It was definitely a mixed result, suggesting that the Trump nod doesn't have quite the same juice it used to.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...t-power-2022-5
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