Merged: Covid vaccines - supply, distribution and rollout / Beginning of the end

[Rolfe]

A lot of people have a case, including supermarket check-out staff, other essential service providers, teachers (discussed separately) and so on. And although many supermarket check-out staff are young, many are not, and are more at risk than a policeman.

They're getting round everyone as fast as they can, based on a priority that's easy to follow. If the cops, unlike the supermarket staff, can't just go on being careful for a few more weeks, then maybe they should try.

[Puppycow]

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Quote:

The biggest vaccination campaign in history is underway. More than 271 million doses have been administered across 108 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 6.36 million doses a day.

In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 80.5 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.01 million doses per day were administered.
Vaccines Across America
Across the U.S., 24.3 doses have been administered for every 100 people, and 75% of the shots delivered to states have been administered.

Quote:

The Path to Immunity in the U.S.
In the U.S., the latest vaccination rate is 2,010,790 doses per day, on average. At this rate, it will take an estimated 6 months to cover 75% of the population with a two-dose vaccine.

So they've managed to reach 2 million doses per day, which seems pretty good. Hopefully they can push it even higher than that. In about 10 days we should pass 100 million doses.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

The police probably do have a case, at least for some of the front line personnel who have to deal with people who are not only defying social distancing regulations but actively threatening others by coughing or spitting at them. That said, I can still see that over all, doing it based on age may well be the simplest to manage.

Not only that but there have been outbreaks among prisoners and police interact with them all the time.


They've let teachers get vaccine now here in WA. It's annoying to hear a teacher say something like, it's about time we were appreciated.

I'm fine with them getting vaccine, but it annoys me when people don't recognize a lot of people should have priority and there isn't enough.

Fortunately in a couple months or less this will be a moot point.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

...And although many supermarket check-out staff are young, many are not, and are more at risk than a policeman. ...

... If the cops, unlike the supermarket staff, can't just go on being careful for a few more weeks, then maybe they should try.

What do you mean by "try to be more careful"?

I'm not sure your idea of a police person's job is anything like what the cops do here.

Cops have to respond to homeless shelters, drug treatment facilities, the jail (they have to book the prisoners and interact with them), and any number of other scenarios that are high risk. They transport people and sometimes there are bars but no screen between the front and back seats. Some of our cities have small municipal jails. Not very safe as far as airborne pathogens go.

Our supermarket folks have masks on and the customers have to wear masks (not every state gets this concept). There's now plexiglass between customers and the register at just about every shop here.

[Rolfe]

Maybe you could point out where I said the words in quotation marks that you attributed to me?

[RecoveringYuppy]

She's paraphrasing what she just quoted. Appears to be an accurate paraphrase unless you want to say "as careful" rather than "more".


Why not just clarify it if you don't like it since it's perfectly obvious she's asking about what she quoted?

[Rolfe]

No, she has completely altered what I said to something I neither said nor meant. She also put it in quotation marks.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

No, she has completely altered what I said to something I neither said nor meant. She also put it in quotation marks.

Other than not saying I paraphrased it, (sorry, my bad), what is your specific issue here? Did you or did you not say police should be more careful in regards to COVID exposure?

"If the cops, unlike the supermarket staff, can't just go on being careful for a few more weeks,then maybe they should try."

Try what, pray tell? Please enlighten us as to the meaning of your sentence.

If they can't be careful maybe they should try?

If you misspoke, or didn't mean what you wrote, what did you mean?

[Rolfe]

Yes, thank you, that's what I wrote. Everyone has been being as careful as they can be. The vaccines have arrived sooner than most people dared hope. Everyone can't be done immediately. Supermarket checkout staff aren't bleating about being done a couple of weeks earlier than their turn.

If the cops can't go on being careful like everyone else whose turn hasn't come yet, maybe they need to think about why they should in fact do that.

Nothing at all about being more careful, just about everybody being patient and continuing to do what they've been doing until their turn comes and not bleating about being a special case. Who knew we'd have a vaccine by the start of 2021 anyway.

[Puppycow]

Vaccine data from Israel. I've been following the news there since they are pretty far ahead of anyone else in terms of percentage of their population that has been vaccinated already:

COVID-19 vaccination: 73 cases of facial paralysis, 7 anaphylactic shock (Jerusalem Post)

Quote:

Serious symptoms of the vaccine include blurred vision, inflammation of the pulmonary pleura, inflammation of the heart, heart attack, or even liver damage.

The good news is that serious side effects seem to be relatively rare.

Quote:

Only 153 people (.0.0032%) out of more than 4.7 million who received a first shot of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine had any kind of serious side effects, according to a new report published by the Health Ministry.
Only 162 had serious side effects from the second dose out of 3.4 million.
The types of serious issues that people experienced ranged from blurred vision, inflammation of the pulmonary pleura (that allow optimal expansion and contraction of the lung during breathing), inflammation of the heart, heart attack or even liver damage.
Some 62 people were hospitalized after receiving their first dose; 75% of them had underlying medical conditions before getting the jab.
Forty-two people were hospitalized after the second shot.
Some 487 (first) and 250 (second) had neurological issues after getting inoculated: 474 people who experienced paresthesia (tingling, pricking, chilling, burning, numbness of the skin), 73 who had bell’s palsy (facial paralysis), 23 convulsions, 28 metal taste in the mouth, 14 loss of consciousness, five transient cerebral ischemia (temporary stroke) and 59 others who had unidentified neurological issues.
In total, there were 9,595 people who reported side effects of the vaccines out of 4,755,585 people who received the first dose, and another 8,743 out of 3,408,825 who received the second dose.

So, the rate of serious side effects is some orders of magnitude lower than the case fatality rate for Covid. (My back-of the envelope calculation says something like 500 times lower; indicating that that it's about 500 times more risky to not get vaccinated if you have the opportunity. And that's also ignoring that most of these people didn't actually die. Death is presumably a worse outcome than any serious side effect short of death.)


So are they approaching herd immunity yet? (According to the latest data, over 40% of Israelis have been fully vaccinated (both doses) so far.)
The answer seems to be not quite yet:

Only 100,000 Israelis over 50 left to be vaccinated - new data

Quote:

The reproduction rate (R) has started to stabilize around the number one, worrying health officials who know that if the rate passes one infection will once again start to spread.
At the same time, despite warnings by the Coronavirus Knowledge and Information Center, there has not been any major outbreak.
The center warned in a Friday report that Israel could be on the verge of another outbreak, with the next stage of reliefs set to be rolled out on Sunday while around 5% of people tested per day have a positive result. Though it noted that even if the number of new cases increases, it is unlikely Israel will see a spike in serious cases due to vaccination.
According to Eran Segal, a computational biologist for the Weizmann Institute of Science, before vaccination, around 27% of new daily cases were 19 years or older and today around 47% of cases fall in that age range. In contrast, 25% of new cases were 50 years or older before the vaccines. Now, only 11% of new cases are in that age range.

So, at least the demographic data would seem to indicate that infections are at least falling among over-50s, the group that has mostly been vaccinated already, while it continues to spread among younger people, who are still waiting their turn. This seems to point to effectiveness of the vaccine, even though overall the numbers aren't falling as fast as you would like them to.



Meanwhile the government has decided to further ease restrictions, and has what they're calling a "green passport" system that allows people who have been fully vaccinated to eat in restaurants and such:

Coronavirus: Israel is opening on Sunday - here are the details

Quote:

The country is opening up further on Sunday, according to a decision by the government. This is the third stage of Israel’s exit strategy.
While at first health officials were recommending slowing down Israel’s opening given the reproduction rate (R) that has been holding around one, the government decided to move forward. As such, more children will return to school and additional commerce and recreation will be available to the public.
Entry into many of the new offerings are subject to a green passport, which can be obtained through the Health Ministry for anyone who has been fully vaccinated with two shots for at least a week. Children under the age of 16, who are not allowed to be vaccinated, will not be able to accompany their vaccinated parents.
Restaurants and cafes - Green passport holders will be able to sit indoors or outdoors, non-vaccinated people will be able to sit outside. Restaurants and cafes will operate according to the Purple Ribbon outline.
Hotels - Will now open beyond the rooms and provide a full range of activities for green passport holders
Event halls, attractions, conferences - Open to green passport holders

So this "green passport" idea would seem to provide an additional incentive to people who might be hesitant to get vaccinated. You will need one if you want to eat indoors at a restaurant, for example. In the future, maybe you would also need it to travel by airplane, in addition to a regular passport.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

....
If the cops can't go on being careful like everyone else whose turn hasn't come yet, maybe they need to think about why they should in fact do that. ...

Here's what the problem is with your neat little explanation. Take out the word 'more' and it doesn't change what I said.

Originally Posted by Rolfe

If the cops, unlike the supermarket staff, can't just go on being careful for a few more weeks, then maybe they should try.

If they can't, maybe they should? What is that supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by SG

What do you mean by "try to be more careful"?

I went on to explain how their jobs are completely different than grocery clerks.

Originally Posted by SG

I'm not sure your idea of a police person's job is anything like what the cops do here.

Cops have to respond to homeless shelters, drug treatment facilities, the jail (they have to book the prisoners and interact with them), and any number of other scenarios that are high risk. They transport people and sometimes there are bars but no screen between the front and back seats. Some of our cities have small municipal jails. Not very safe as far as airborne pathogens go.

Our supermarket folks have masks on and the customers have to wear masks (not every state gets this concept). There's now plexiglass between customers and the register at just about every shop here.

Feel free to answer again with 'more' removed from my question: If they can't, maybe they should? What is that supposed to mean? Because the two occupations are not comparable. And I've said elsewhere cops and EMS should be right up there with healthcare workers.

[rjh01]

An interesting fact about the Israel data. If you measure both new cases and deaths since their peak then deaths have fallen a lot faster than new cases. I suggest this is due to the vaccine.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by rjh01

An interesting fact about the Israel data. If you measure both new cases and deaths since their peak then deaths have fallen a lot faster than new cases. I suggest this is due to the vaccine.

Good point.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/

New infections seem to have plateaued while deaths continue to fall. From 65/day on January 25th to 20/day on March 5th (7-day moving average). New cases peaked at 8,395/day on January 14th and were at 3,670 on March 5th (they plateaued around Feb. 19th).

Also, this graph shows the rate of hospitalizations broken down by age:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/i...alizations-age

The over 60 category has fallen faster than the under 60 group, and has almost reached the same level. The data only goes through the week of Feb. 22 though.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by rjh01

An interesting fact about the Israel data. If you measure both new cases and deaths since their peak then deaths have fallen a lot faster than new cases. I suggest this is due to the vaccine.

We're perhaps seeing that in Scotland (and I think in England) now. We've got about a third of the population vaccinated with one dose (two-dose vaccination rate is still negligible, at about 2%) and the vaccinated people are overwhelmingly the over 60s, the demographic most likely to fall ill, be hospitalised and die. The virus is still circulating widely and we're still getting a lot of new infections (although these are falling due to the lockdown), but hospitalisations and deaths appear to be falling faster than some best-case scenarios.

[zooterkin]

The vaccinations are proceeding apace; over-55s can now book their jabs on the NHS website, in England at least.

[Rolfe]

I'm not sure how it's being done here, though I know groups under 60 are now being included. I don't know anything about booking, so far everyone I know has simply received a phone call from their GP and been told when and where to show up. Rural residents have been done in their doctor's surgery, urban in a centre set up in a public building. Housbound or shielding people have been done in their own homes by the district nurse. I don't think they'll go on doing it that way with younger groups though.

[Kestrel]

The vaccination priority system in Colorado started with medical staff working directly with COVID patients and residents of long term card facilities. Death rates and hospitalization rates started dropping soon afterwards. As of yesterday vaccinations are available for anyone 60 or over plus those over 15 with two or more listed medical conditions. Essential workers in food production or grocery stores are also eligible.

Members of the state legislature and staff were given priority because they have to work with members who refuse to wear masks. Local government officials can now get vaccinated for the same reason.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by Kestrel

The vaccination priority system in Colorado started with medical staff working directly with COVID patients and residents of long term card facilities. Death rates and hospitalization rates started dropping soon afterwards. As of yesterday vaccinations are available for anyone 60 or over plus those over 15 with two or more listed medical conditions. Essential workers in food production or grocery stores are also eligible.

Members of the state legislature and staff were given priority because they have to work with members who refuse to wear masks. Local government officials can now get vaccinated for the same reason.

I would certainly put workers in food production/meat packing facilities and grocery store workers higher than police if I was prioritising by occupation. And teachers.

But I also see the logic of doing the groups mainly by age with medical history also taken into account, because the health authorities have all the info they need to do this, and just trying to get through everyone as fast as you can. Special interest groups whining "I should get to jump the queue" when in fact it's a bloody miracle that anyone at all is being vaccinated this soon, are not convincing.

[Kestrel]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I would certainly put workers in food production/meat packing facilities and grocery store workers higher than police if I was prioritising by occupation. And teachers.

But I also see the logic of doing the groups mainly by age with medical history also taken into account, because the health authorities have all the info they need to do this, and just trying to get through everyone as fast as you can. Special interest groups whining "I should get to jump the queue" when in fact it's a bloody miracle that anyone at all is being vaccinated this soon, are not convincing.

Nations with socialized medicine can easily find people with certain health conditions. In the United States medical records are kept privately by each health care provider. These are seldom available when anyone other than your normal doctor is treating you. A few vaccine sites are asking for notes from your doctor but in general Colorado’s vaccine priority for health conditions is based on self certification.

[Bob001]

Originally Posted by Kestrel

.....
A few vaccine sites are asking for notes from your doctor but in general Colorado’s vaccine priority for health conditions is based on self certification.

That seems to be generally the case. If you show up claiming to have one of what is often a long list of qualifying conditions, some of which don't require regular treatment, they don't ask you to prove it. The paperwork and bureaucracy would be overwhelming, and might prevent people who most need shots from getting them.

Quote:

Southwest Virginia has been vaccinating people with high-risk conditions for several days. In both states, you don't need any documentation of your condition.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ne/ar-BB1edlJ3

[Bob001]

Should we be surprised that there seems to be a developing black market in covid vaccines?

Quote:

As cities and states struggle to vaccinate long waitlists of people in a timely manner, some seeking protection against the novel coronavirus are turning to dubious online marketplaces.

As many as 30% of these black market offerings might be legitimate, culled from leftover stock, according to a report published March 4 by the cybersecurity firm Kaspersky

https://www.businessinsider.in/scien...w/81358423.cms

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by Bob001

Should we be surprised that there seems to be a developing black market in covid vaccines?

https://www.businessinsider.in/scien...w/81358423.cms

Fake vaccines or real vaccines damaged by overexposure to heat/movement - so likely useless in either case. Might we consider anyone who "jumped the queue" this way and later caught the virus to have got their just desserts?

[Bob001]

Originally Posted by Lplus

Fake vaccines or real vaccines damaged by overexposure to heat/movement - so likely useless in either case. Might we consider anyone who "jumped the queue" this way and later caught the virus to have got their just desserts?

Sure. But jumping the queue usually means getting a legitimate vaccine ahead of the more deserving. An actual underground black market is something else.

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by Bob001

Sure. But jumping the queue usually means getting a legitimate vaccine ahead of the more deserving. An actual underground black market is something else.

Fair point.