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Tags Coronavirus , vaccine

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Old 2nd March 2021, 01:23 AM   #1081
Klimax
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Indeed, it's almost a year (without 2 weeks) since we started our first lockdown. Wasn't so hard, but it was certainly a lockdown. Schools, shops except essentials, services, restaurants, all closed. Mandatory masks (of any kind).
At that time we had 142 known cases. Everybody accepted that the situation is dire enough to lock the whole country in unprecedented way, because of 142 cases (and based on what was happening in Italy).

It had great results, and we basically didn't have 'first wave'. The lockdown was both effective and in time.

Since then the willingness to do it again dropped significantly.
We watch the numbers grow, saying 'it's not so bad, it might also stop for no reason, so let's wait'. Today we have 15k new cases every day (10 million country btw.), and lots of people consider it simply OK, unwilling to cooperate in the least. To be fair, some are in desperate situations, especially small businesses.

Two weeks back, we had about 10k new cases per day, there was actual debate in parliament about easings, and fully opening schools from March 1st ! The fact we will have several elections this year, isn't helping at all. Parties are trying to outidiot each other. If by some chance ruling party does something right, everybody else will sabotage it.

There is also big influence of fake information on the internet. People just don't know how to process conflicting information, especially if it's also politicians and experts who give mixed messages.

IMHO best way would be apolitical board of experts, with regular media time, ideally every day, who would address individual issues.
Of course, for the media, bickering individual experts with silly and extreme ideas are much more interesting.

Only way to fight it is with skepticism and science though.
Natural results of having this government. Even no gov would be better. (States/counties could do far better job) Too many odd/bonkers/idiotic unexplained rules, completely botched roll out of vaccination. And screaming conflicts of interests like certain class off shops still being opened because prime minister has major chain in there.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 03:14 PM   #1082
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Here's a piece I just read about the situation in Czechia, which gels with Dr Sid's analysis. (I think you need to get together with Dr Madar and start running the place): https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/28/e...-disaster-intl
_________________________________________

Which segues into the question that's been asked since about day one - what is the fatality rate of Covid?

Thanks to the sterling work of Czech people, we can be certain it's well in excess of 0.2%, since they're cruising past that number as I type. And as infections are still rising, the final result will be far higher. Also, I presume Czechia, like almost everywhere else, has under-counted.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 03:36 PM   #1083
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And thanks are due to Texas and Mississippi, both of which are removing all restrictions, including masking.

This will enable us to see whether the new strains in USA are stopped by the vaccines, and whether the virus will evolve around them.

Kudos.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56255701
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Old 2nd March 2021, 04:35 PM   #1084
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And thanks are due to Texas and Mississippi, both of which are removing all restrictions, including masking.

This will enable us to see whether the new strains in USA are stopped by the vaccines, and whether the virus will evolve around them.

Kudos.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56255701
As Jerry Pournelle said: "Evolution in Action"
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Old 2nd March 2021, 04:53 PM   #1085
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Auckland back in lockdown for 7 days.
New Zealand for 3.
Virus Gerulaitis.

Nobody beats it seventeen times in a row.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 10:10 PM   #1086
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Glad to hear that the pandemic is over in Texas.

https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/st...46908480815106

Originally Posted by Greg Abbot
I just announced Texas is OPEN 100%.

EVERYTHING.

I also ended the statewide mask mandate.
I guess we'll find out one way or another.

I have seen some predictions that it will all be essentially over by April due to herd immunity. Texas can either prove that to be true, or not. April is only a month away.
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Old 2nd March 2021, 10:47 PM   #1087
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Here's a piece I just read about the situation in Czechia, which gels with Dr Sid's analysis. (I think you need to get together with Dr Madar and start running the place): https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/28/e...-disaster-intl
_________________________________________

Which segues into the question that's been asked since about day one - what is the fatality rate of Covid?

Thanks to the sterling work of Czech people, we can be certain it's well in excess of 0.2%, since they're cruising past that number as I type. And as infections are still rising, the final result will be far higher. Also, I presume Czechia, like almost everywhere else, has under-counted.
We're almost certainly undercounting infections. There is still strong delay in testing after being referred there b y either hygienic service (tracing) or by doctor. The only way around that delay (often 7-10 days) is to get antigenic test and if positive then get proper PCR.

As for deaths, we are likely (still) overcounting. Sadly, not by much by now...

One of reasons for our descent into hell:
Last year it was Hamáček (minister of interior - official translation!) and Vojtěch (minister of healthcare) who was overseeing anticovid response. Babiš (PM) being jealous of Hamáček's visibility took over as much as he could in autumn and proceeded to micromanage it. Changes on post of minister for healthcare didn't help but as it turned out largely irrelevant.

And Prime minister made vaccine distribution a political matter (according to former coordinator of vaccination) and was directing which region gets how much of it. I think it is perfect illustration why are in such trouble.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 01:39 AM   #1088
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
We're almost certainly undercounting infections.
Outside of countries with minimal cases - NZ. Aussie, Taiwan, Iceland and a couple of others, it's impossible not under-count.

Lots of people have no symptoms, which is what makes it tricky.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 01:45 AM   #1089
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Going back to transmission; I'm becoming more and more suspicious that Covid truly is a seasonal virus.

Between NZ and Australia, we've had half a dozen recent break-outs, yet the infections have fizzled out. All but one of NZ's cases have been in the home, or very close physical contacts.

Out of 1800 kids at a school, one of them caught it, while thousands of people considered close contacts - at a gym, a KFC, a McDonald's, a shopping centre, and a variety of shops and no transmission has been found. The recent Sydney cluster had cases working bars and visiting shops and there was no transmission.

It seems to me to be a cold-weather virus, or requiring very close contact. And the recent outbreaks in the Antipodes have all been the UK variant.

I compare that to RSV, where a kid at school in a different class to my boy had it, and he infected about a dozen others in a single day at school, including my bloke, who is very careful with hygiene.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 01:50 AM   #1090
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Here's a piece I just read about the situation in Czechia, which gels with Dr Sid's analysis. (I think you need to get together with Dr Madar and start running the place): https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/28/e...-disaster-intl
_________________________________________

Which segues into the question that's been asked since about day one - what is the fatality rate of Covid?

Thanks to the sterling work of Czech people, we can be certain it's well in excess of 0.2%, since they're cruising past that number as I type. And as infections are still rising, the final result will be far higher. Also, I presume Czechia, like almost everywhere else, has under-counted.
The death rate is the road toll.
Survivors with ruined lives are not reported.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 03:06 AM   #1091
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
As Jerry Pournelle said: "Evolution in Action"
Unfortunately, they're not an isolated population and are a threat to us all
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Old 3rd March 2021, 03:33 AM   #1092
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
We're almost certainly undercounting infections. There is still strong delay in testing after being referred there b y either hygienic service (tracing) or by doctor. The only way around that delay (often 7-10 days) is to get antigenic test and if positive then get proper PCR.

As for deaths, we are likely (still) overcounting. Sadly, not by much by now...

One of reasons for our descent into hell:
Last year it was Hamáček (minister of interior - official translation!) and Vojtěch (minister of healthcare) who was overseeing anticovid response. Babiš (PM) being jealous of Hamáček's visibility took over as much as he could in autumn and proceeded to micromanage it. Changes on post of minister for healthcare didn't help but as it turned out largely irrelevant.

And Prime minister made vaccine distribution a political matter (according to former coordinator of vaccination) and was directing which region gets how much of it. I think it is perfect illustration why are in such trouble.
CFR is 1.7%. Which is not so bad actually.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...ickerSort=desc

Everybody is undercounting cases, and most countries also deaths. Deaths to lesser extent. But deaths are usually counted in different way in different countries. In Czech Republic it's quite generous 'positive when died'. Excess deaths from last months of 2020 show up to twice as many deaths.
Of course nobody knows real infection rates.
When comparing CFR for individual countries I see little logic behind it. For example I would expect to have better CFR than US. Here, all healthcare around Covid is free. Antigen tests are free for anyone, PCR are free for people with symptoms. There are standard social benefits, and extra Covid compensation. Nobody can lose job just because of few weeks of quarantine (companies being closed for months is another matter).
Contact tracing is another matter. First, with new case numbers like this, it's not really possible. Also people are allegedly not reporting friends and colleagues to avoid getting them in possibly needless quarantine.
Our CFR is also better than Germany, which is another thing which makes no sense. Their tracing should be better, and they simply can't have more generous death counting system. So they should have lower CFR, yet they have double of what we have.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:10 AM   #1093
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Glad to hear that the pandemic is over in Texas.

https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/st...46908480815106

I guess we'll find out one way or another.

I have seen some predictions that it will all be essentially over by April due to herd immunity. Texas can either prove that to be true, or not. April is only a month away.

Depends on what you mean by "over", since it seems herd immunity means anything anyone wants it to mean, now. It seems that some people think "over" means no more rapid exponential spread. We haven't seen even that in any country yet, with no restrictions in place, and that's not a definition of "over" that I would recognise.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 08:10 AM   #1094
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Depends on what you mean by "over", since it seems herd immunity means anything anyone wants it to mean, now. It seems that some people think "over" means no more rapid exponential spread. We haven't seen even that in any country yet, with no restrictions in place, and that's not a definition of "over" that I would recognise.
I agree. (I hope you detected my sarcasm) I rather expect we'll see cases rising again in Texas within 2 to 3 weeks. Hope I'm wrong, but I expect that this is a mistake.

Active cases in Japan are down 81% from when they peaked in January thanks to the state of emergency, but I think they will likely begin to rise again once the state of emergency is lifted. It was already lifted for most of the country this past weekend, except for Tokyo and 3 neighboring prefectures; it will stay in place for Tokyo and the 3 until March 21.

Vaccinations haven't really started here in earnest yet. Only about 40,000 jabs have been given so far and only to medical people participating in a sort of trial.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 08:59 AM   #1095
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FLCCC's paper, which had been provisionally accepted, has been rejected and removed.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...lication-68505

The editors of Frontiers in Pharmacology have taken down an article about the use of the antiparasitic drug ivermectin in COVID-19 patients. The paper, which was written by members of an organization called the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC), had been provisionally accepted and posted in abstract form by the journal in January, but was ultimately rejected this Monday (March 1). The editors determined that it contained unsubstantiated claims and violated the journal’s editorial policies.

I have not found what the specific objections were but it seems unusual that a "provisionally accepted" paper that had gotten a lot of attention and was at the site for quite a while is pulled without specificity. Given the attention the paper got, the public and medical professionals would be well served if the specific reasons were also stated so it doesn't just feed conspiracy theories (big pharma, etc.).
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Old 3rd March 2021, 05:17 PM   #1096
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One for you, Klimax.

How the Czech Republic slipped into a Covid disaster, one misstep at a time
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Old 3rd March 2021, 06:37 PM   #1097
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Glad to hear that the pandemic is over in Texas.

https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/st...46908480815106



I guess we'll find out one way or another.

I have seen some predictions that it will all be essentially over by April due to herd immunity. Texas can either prove that to be true, or not. April is only a month away.
From the article:
Quote:
about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
That is so over the top. I know we don't know how many people have truly been infected but youtuber Dr. John Campbell estimates that it is probably somewhere between 20% and 30% for the US. After steep declines in the states, things seem to have plateaued and perhaps even bumped up a bit. I suspect we are going to have yet another wave before this is over.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 07:40 PM   #1098
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After a year of this it's so easy to let one's guard down and not wait until it really is time to do so.

But I'm thinking Abbott wants something else in the headlines to bump the disaster off the front page. And people like SD Governor Noem at CPAC claiming success managing the pandemic in her state was political pandering and denial.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 08:04 PM   #1099
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Glad to hear that the pandemic is over in Texas.

https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/st...46908480815106
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
You know, if you bothered keeping up with the thread, they were both already posted, and in close proximity to yours.

Just sayin'.
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Old 4th March 2021, 02:52 AM   #1100
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This graph of J&J vaccine effectiveness may not be safe for work:

https://twitter.com/JuliaLMarcus/sta...531880961?s=20

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Old 4th March 2021, 04:39 AM   #1101
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You know, if you bothered keeping up with the thread, they were both already posted, and in close proximity to yours.

Just sayin'.

Actually, I thought Klimax had been posting in the thread about Sweden and went to post the link there, but when I saw that wasn't the case I looked for the thread he was active in. So sue me. I don't click on every single link people post, especially if they don't take the trouble to link properly by using the article's title as the link. In which case, even if one doesn't click, one will have seen the title and probably realised that it's the same thing.

The campaign for good linking
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Old 4th March 2021, 11:30 AM   #1102
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I'll just leave the following link from SBM here, just in case anyone happens to be interested in some more research on Vit D and Covid...

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/vit...19-infections/

TL; DR supplementation might be a general good thing, but curing/preventing Covid infection probably not (note some small sample sizes may be problematic).
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Old 4th March 2021, 02:56 PM   #1103
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Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King View Post
TL; DR supplementation might be a general good thing, but curing/preventing Covid infection probably not (note some small sample sizes may be problematic).
As has been noted a number of times before, Vitamin D wasn't and isn't being put forward as a silver bullet so much as Vitamin D deficiency was being treated as a notable factor in increasing risk of more severe illness/harm. So, nothing particularly surprising from those results.
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Old 4th March 2021, 03:09 PM   #1104
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Another development: Post-covid brain fog might be caused by weird new cells appearing in the brain:
Quote:
A key finding emerged when researchers autopsied brains of COVID victims, discovering certain cells that shouldn't have been there. These large cells, known as megakaryocytes, might be taking up precious space, leaving less room for blood to pass to the brain.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/scientists...135544750.html
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Old 4th March 2021, 03:10 PM   #1105
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You know, if you bothered keeping up with the thread, they were both already posted, and in close proximity to yours.

Just sayin'.
Eh, considering some readers might have missed it first time, good reminder. It is pretty good summary of rampant idiocy that is far worse than any prior Absurdistan we may have had.

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Actually, I thought Klimax had been posting in the thread about Sweden and went to post the link there, but when I saw that wasn't the case I looked for the thread he was active in. So sue me. I don't click on every single link people post, especially if they don't take the trouble to link properly by using the article's title as the link. In which case, even if one doesn't click, one will have seen the title and probably realised that it's the same thing.

The campaign for good linking
I used to. Lost energy after rampant idiocy became too much here. Wish there was vote of no confidence. No gov is better than this random numbers generating ultra-chaotic jokers that pretend to be government that have an idea what they are doing. (Even those who used to have brains lost them)
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Old 5th March 2021, 11:35 AM   #1106
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More on transmission and season - we have now had over 4000 people who were classed as casual or close contacts of the currently-infected community cases tested and not one of them has been positive.

There may well be a few turn up over the next week, but this is now the third time we've had an outbreak - and Aussie's had at least two in the same period - and it just hasn't been catching.

Considering one of the infectious cases went to three gym sessions, I was pretty sure at least one or two of the fellow attendees might have caught it, but not one so far.
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Old 6th March 2021, 01:28 PM   #1107
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
...
Our CFR is also better than Germany, which is another thing which makes no sense. Their tracing should be better, and they simply can't have more generous death counting system. So they should have lower CFR, yet they have double of what we have.
This has kept me puzzling for weeks now, and I have not seen an answer to the puzzle yet: In February, Germany had the 4th-lowest new case rate in the EU, so a relatively relaxed situation for keeping track. Germany's death rate from Covid was within 10% of the EU average.
But the ratio new deaths/new cases was the worst of all EU countries in the EU:
Germany 5.6%
next worst Croatia and Portugal at 4.6%
EU average 2.7%
best was Finland 0.58%.
For comparison:
USA 3.0%
UK 4.7%

This is not due to slow vaccine rollout: Germany has been about as slow as France or Italy, and has duly prioritized long term care facility residents and the >80 years population.
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Old 6th March 2021, 11:41 PM   #1108
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
This has kept me puzzling for weeks now, and I have not seen an answer to the puzzle yet: In February, Germany had the 4th-lowest new case rate in the EU, so a relatively relaxed situation for keeping track. Germany's death rate from Covid was within 10% of the EU average.
But the ratio new deaths/new cases was the worst of all EU countries in the EU:
Germany 5.6%
next worst Croatia and Portugal at 4.6%
EU average 2.7%
best was Finland 0.58%.
For comparison:
USA 3.0%
UK 4.7%

This is not due to slow vaccine rollout: Germany has been about as slow as France or Italy, and has duly prioritized long term care facility residents and the >80 years population.
Age structure might be important factor .. Germany seems to have one of the older populations in EU. But the difference doesn't seem this big.
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Old 7th March 2021, 09:36 PM   #1109
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Another new development: Apparently a psychiatric drug prevents mild covid cases from deteriorating.
Quote:
The antidepressant fluvoxamine could prevent people from getting seriously ill with COVID-19, curbing hospitalizations, new data show.

The results come from real-world use of the drug to treat workers at the Golden Gate Fields horse racing track in Berkeley, Calif. Of those who opted to take fluvoxamine, none got sicker, and within two weeks, their symptoms cleared. In comparison, 12.5 percent of those who turned down the drug wound up hospitalized. Two got so sick they were put on a ventilator to assist with breathing, and one died, researchers report February 1 in Open Forum Infectious Diseases.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...mine-treatment

Quote:
Now, a small but ingenious clinical trial and a series of coincidences have led scientists to look closely at fluvoxamine as a possible tool to keep newly diagnosed COVID-19 patients from becoming severely ill.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fluvoxa...es-2021-03-07/
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Old 7th March 2021, 09:45 PM   #1110
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Wow, that is interesting - thanks!
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Old 7th March 2021, 10:00 PM   #1111
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Not blind .. not very big .. in time of business wars for billions, this is simply mediocre.
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Old 7th March 2021, 10:09 PM   #1112
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This seems like a horrible story if it's true.

Toll COVID-19 took on young woman and her prospects


Is this the so-called "long COVID" or something else? Apparently government health officials say that her case is not due to COVID-19. But what could it be, if not that? Something psychosomatic, or Munchausen syndrome?
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Old 7th March 2021, 10:27 PM   #1113
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Not blind .. not very big .. in time of business wars for billions, this is simply mediocre.

A subsequent study was a randomized trial. Research continues.
Quote:
Findings In this randomized trial that included 152 adult outpatients with confirmed COVID-19 and symptom onset within 7 days, clinical deterioration occurred in 0 patients treated with fluvoxamine vs 6 (8.3%) patients treated with placebo over 15 days, a difference that was statistically significant.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2773108
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Old 7th March 2021, 11:32 PM   #1114
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Talking

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Well, the clue is in the name! "Johnson"
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Old 7th March 2021, 11:34 PM   #1115
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Not blind .. not very big .. in time of business wars for billions, this is simply mediocre.
I disagree with that. It certainly needs more work, but what there is is fairly compelling.

First off, there are hundreds of claims being made, probably every damned day, and with a drug that's dirt cheap, nobody's spending money promoting it.

The mechanism looks to be logical, so I'm certainly prepared to give it the benefit of the doubt until proven wrong.
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Old 8th March 2021, 01:18 AM   #1116
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I disagree with that. It certainly needs more work, but what there is is fairly compelling.

First off, there are hundreds of claims being made, probably every damned day, and with a drug that's dirt cheap, nobody's spending money promoting it.

The mechanism looks to be logical, so I'm certainly prepared to give it the benefit of the doubt until proven wrong.
Sure, it is compelling, just the study which was linked was not it. Hundreds stronger claims are being made. As you said, it needs more work.
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Old 8th March 2021, 01:35 AM   #1117
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It's something that should be able to be looked at straight away from existing data. The stuff has been prescribed millions of times, and there must be a large number of people who were already taking it that caught Covid.
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Old 8th March 2021, 07:05 AM   #1118
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
A subsequent study was a randomized trial. Research continues.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2773108

Wasn't that the initial study, the one that prompted the non-blinded racetrack study?

Taken together the two studies look extremely promising, there's no doubt. Ironically I might have been one of those who declined to take the stuff, as I have a history of throwing bad anxiety reactions to related drugs.
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Old 8th March 2021, 01:39 PM   #1119
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It's something that should be able to be looked at straight away from existing data. The stuff has been prescribed millions of times, and there must be a large number of people who were already taking it that caught Covid.[
That's actually an interesting question. If someone has been using the drug long-term for its primary purpose, would he maybe be less likely to contract covid in the first place, at least to a degree that he would show symptoms?

Last edited by Bob001; 8th March 2021 at 01:43 PM.
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Old 8th March 2021, 01:49 PM   #1120
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Wasn't that the initial study, the one that prompted the non-blinded racetrack study?
....

Apparently so. My mistake. It's now being tested in a larger randomized trial.
Quote:
Researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis are testing fluvoxamine in a larger, randomized nationwide trial financed by Kirsch’s fund and other philanthropic sources. Participants get pills, either fluvoxamine or placebo, shipped to their homes, along with a thermometer, pulse oximeter and blood-pressure monitor.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...mine-treatment
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