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Old 26th January 2021, 04:33 AM   #3281
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Matt Hancock describing “enhanced” contact tracing: getting people to self isolate, getting their contacts to self isolate, providing so the support they need.
Isn’t that just how contact tracing should work when it cost £22 billion?
Yes, this is what should have been happening.

Of course if you can only find 50% or 60% of people then that hampers this kind of thing and it also assumes that people are honest and accurate about who they've been in contact with.

A friend of Mrs Don's is now isolating for the fifth time due to contact tracing, either in person on via the app. There has been no follow-up to check whether she's doing it.
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Old 26th January 2021, 05:11 AM   #3282
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And my version of the latest ONS data, but running wks10-wk9



It's needing increasingly acrobatic mental gymnastics to pretend it's just a normal flu season. But I'm sure Ivor Cummins will come up with some innumerate reasons
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Old 26th January 2021, 05:45 AM   #3283
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
And my version of the latest ONS data, but running wks10-wk9

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsqEep9X...png&name=small

It's needing increasingly acrobatic mental gymnastics to pretend it's just a normal flu season. But I'm sure Ivor Cummins will come up with some innumerate reasons
I think phrase he uses is "I'm just looking at the data", while making spurious claims about it.
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Old 26th January 2021, 05:59 AM   #3284
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More on the "Germany says that the AstraZeneca vaccine is only 8% effective in over-65's" report:

Quote:
Germany's health ministry has firmly denied reports in the German media of a lower efficacy rate for the AstraZeneca vaccine among the elderly.

The ministry said its review of the data reported as low efficacy in older people showed it "appears that two things have been mixed up in the reports".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

Of course this could be the crushing fist of Big Pharma seeking to silence brave whistle-blowers.
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Old 26th January 2021, 06:02 AM   #3285
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Possible good news in the UK about treatments for Covid:

Quote:
Sir Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, is still answering MPs questions.

<snip>

He also claims it is "possible" that coronavirus will become a "much more treatable disease" over the next six to 18 months.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

I think that the news that Covid will still be a big enough problem in 18 months time that a treatment will be a boon will be news to many.
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Old 26th January 2021, 06:14 AM   #3286
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EU threatens to block Covid vaccine exports amid AstraZeneca shortfall

EU threat will not impact Covid vaccine deliveries to UK, says minister
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Old 26th January 2021, 07:27 AM   #3287
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Yay Brexit!
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Old 26th January 2021, 07:53 AM   #3288
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Yay Brexit!
Climbing over the corpses to get to those sunlit uplands.
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Old 26th January 2021, 08:37 AM   #3289
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Hancock: protectionism not the answer to vaccine supply issues

Quote:
I’m sure that we can work with the EU to ensure that, whilst transparency is welcome, that no blockers are put in place,

...

I’m confident of the supply of vaccine into the UK.
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Old 26th January 2021, 08:53 AM   #3290
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Jenny Eclair the comedian has tweeted that her partner has been texted to make his covid jab appt at a hospital in London but he's already had his first dose at local clinic and was given a second appt in 12 weeks.
She made some enquiries and it seems that although it is all supposed to go through a system called 'Pinnacle' there is no single database.
People will get at least 2 invites. Public Health England are working to invite people to their nearest 'hub', and CCGs are inviting their patients from each general practice they oversee to a more local centre.
My mum had her first jab before Christmas, and her second at the beginning of January, from her GP. I've just got off the phone with her, and she had an text invitation to St Thomas's hospital to have the vaccine a couple of days ago. Not clear if that's because of the PHE system or because she had heart surgery at the hospital a couple of years ago and is therefore on their books. So it's possible she may have three separate invitations.
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Old 26th January 2021, 09:38 AM   #3291
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Latest statistics for Wales

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55811002

Highest number of weekly deaths for the country as a whole
Number of weekly deaths slightly down for my health board, but still the second worst in Wales
40% of deaths in Wales last week were Covid related
North Wales is starting to see a significant increase while South Wales generally has had a slight decrease
The Valleys are still being absolutely battered

Wales has been in lockdown for over a month. Deaths are a trailing indicator and the current figures include deaths from a couple of weeks ago which are just being reported now.
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Old 26th January 2021, 09:49 AM   #3292
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The Welsh government has missed its Covid vaccination target for over-80's by a significant margin - and has blamed the weather.

Quote:
A pledge that 70% of the over-80s would get the Covid-19 vaccine by last weekend was missed, the Welsh Government admitted.

Weather has been blamed for the problem with figures showing 96,830, or 52.8%, had their first dose.

First Minister Mark Drakeford said many over-80s felt unsafe attending appointments amid the snow and ice.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-55814611

Complete rubbish IMO, there's a bigger issue than just the weather - and winter weather is hardly unexpected in winter.
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Old 26th January 2021, 11:48 AM   #3293
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The Welsh government has missed its Covid vaccination target for over-80's by a significant margin - and has blamed the weather.

Where were they vaccinating them? Rodney Parade?
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Old 26th January 2021, 01:04 PM   #3294
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Poor Boris
The worst death rate in the world.
He did ‘everything he could’ and was the worst at it.
All we need to know.
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Old 26th January 2021, 01:18 PM   #3295
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Poor Boris
The worst death rate in the world.
He did ‘everything he could’ and was the worst at it.
All we need to know.
Could it be because he's simply chasing positive headlines ?

Even after announcing 100,000 deaths, he's promising to open things up.

Quote:
Mr Johnson said he would set out more detail in "the next few days and weeks" about "when and how we want to get things open again".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55814751

Personally, I'd rather time and effort is spent on not completely screwing up the vaccine rollout and mitigating the dire economic effects of Covid.
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Old 26th January 2021, 01:34 PM   #3296
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In the UK, the decision to maximise the number of first vaccines at the expense of doing second vaccines was a political decision, not one which was driven by science. The science has subsequently been bent to fit, with varying degrees of success. Indeed, it seems the closer one is to actual subject matter expertise, the less likely one is to support the 12 week gap between vaccinations (and does anyone believe for one moment that the government will be happy for the number of first vaccinations to drop precipitously in 2-3 months time as the second vaccinations fall due ?).

IMO as usual the government has been spooked by bad headlines, has chosen a course of action which is designed to generate the most positive headlines and may have been shown to have made a very poor choice in the medium term.
As said, I know some of the people involved, it was science not politics. To simplify. You can give one dose to 100 people which will provide 50% protection or two doses to 50 people which provides 90% protection, which is the policy you should recommend? If there is no urgency in delivering the vaccine then the latter. In the current situation the former is the better policy for the population as a whole.

At present the limiting factor is vaccine supply not vaccine delivery. With time (hopefully) vaccine supply will ramp up. By the end of February the vaccine supply should be such that first dose vaccinations can continue at the same rate whilst second doses are delivered.

The single biggest risk factor for death or serious illness with covid is age. For every eight years mortality doubles. As you come down the age range with vaccination the benefit falls. If we have vaccinated all the over seventies by the end of February, vaccinating those under seventy will only reduce deaths by half (assuming a flat population profile) as compared with the 70 - 80 cohort. There is no evidence for any vaccine the second dose will double efficacy therefore the best policy is to maximise first dose coverage in the highest risk groups. Because mortality exponentially falls with age the urgency to vaccinate falls and you can move to delivering a second dose.

The JCVI have to recommend the best vaccine policy for the population of the UK, I have heard no one who is close to vaccination policy in the UK disagree with the decision. It may be a brave decision but I think it was the correct one for the UK at present. It would not be the correct decision for Australia or New Zealand. To reiterate JCVI is a four nation committee, England does not have a dominant voice. The Westminster government cannot dictate what the JCVI policy is.

Last edited by Planigale; 26th January 2021 at 01:37 PM.
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Old 26th January 2021, 02:55 PM   #3297
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I completely disagree with this as it flies in the face of all that is known about primary versus secondary vaccine responses. It may turn out OK but if it does it will be by sheer luck, not good judgement. Giving people a false sense of security isn't a great move under present circumstances either. These single doses could end up being mostly wasted if they're not followed up on quickly enough, and in particular many people could be left with a window of susceptibility before the second injection even if they produced a reasonable response to the first dose.
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Old 26th January 2021, 07:58 PM   #3298
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I went back three pages and didn't see this so if it's a dup let me know. This piece doesn't get to the point very quickly. There are probably better articles on the mechanisms behind Netanyahu's successful vaccination program but this one is a start.

Newsweek: Economics, Politics and Data Harvesting Fuel Israel's Vaccine Spree | Opinion
Quote:
...The world wonders what's the secret to Israel's extraordinary success in vaccinating the population, to date. This accomplishment is particularly remarkable when you consider the government's failure to develop a coherent policy to contain COVID-19....
Netanyahu personally worked with the vaccine company.
Quote:
...Part of the reason is no doubt that Israel agreed to pay more for each vaccine. ...

The Israeli system provides a significant side benefit for the vaccine manufacturers, i.e., HMOs can easily monitor all patients after vaccination; record the appearance of any side effects; keep track of how many develop the virus, even after being vaccinated; and know everything else about each patient. ...

... Israel pledged to share anonymized data with Pfizer as well as the World Health Organization. ...
Individuals were no a part of the data sharing decision.

Here's a different POV:
Times of Israel: Experts urge dose of transparency as medical data traded to Pfizer for vaccines...

Quote:
Israelis are asking what kind of medical data has been promised to US-based pharmaceutical giant Pfizer in return for the millions of additional doses of the vaccine that are being rushed to Israel. ...
Different reporters/commenters.
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Old 27th January 2021, 02:25 AM   #3299
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Video showing the assertions of prominent Covid deniers about the lack of a second wave compared to the data at the time in the UK. Most of the claims made were about the UK.

https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1354208541079449601

One beep = 100 deaths
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Old 27th January 2021, 03:47 AM   #3300
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If Johnson did everything he could, how did New Zealand get it so wrong?
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Old 27th January 2021, 03:50 AM   #3301
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Roger Helmer (Former Tory MEP) tweets

How reliable is this 100,000 figure? How many false positives? How many coincidentally died WITH Covid but not FROM Covid? How many represent hard-pressed doctors making a rushed judgement? How comparable are these data with other nations?
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Old 27th January 2021, 04:16 AM   #3302
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'Wealth increase of 10 men during pandemic could buy vaccines for all'

The combined wealth of the world's 10 richest men rose by $540bn (£400bn) during the pandemic, according to Oxfam.

The charity claims this amount would be enough to prevent the world from falling into poverty because of the virus, and pay for vaccines for all.

The organisation is urging governments to consider taxes on the super-rich.

Oxfam's report comes as global leaders gather virtually for the World Economic Forum's "Davos Dialogue" meeting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55793575
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Old 27th January 2021, 04:23 AM   #3303
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Roger Helmer (Former Tory MEP) tweets

How reliable is this 100,000 figure? How many false positives? How many coincidentally died WITH Covid but not FROM Covid? How many represent hard-pressed doctors making a rushed judgement? How comparable are these data with other nations?
Then again Roger Helmer, given how badly the UKs test and trace programme has failed, how many people have died without ever receiving a Covid diagnosis ?

Also, how many people have died (and will die in future years and decades) as a result of the government's horrible mismanagement of the Covid pandemic and the knock-on effect to the NHS, income and wealth inequality and societal issues ?
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Old 27th January 2021, 07:59 AM   #3304
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes, this is what should have been happening.

Of course if you can only find 50% or 60% of people then that hampers this kind of thing and it also assumes that people are honest and accurate about who they've been in contact with.

A friend of Mrs Don's is now isolating for the fifth time due to contact tracing, either in person on via the app. There has been no follow-up to check whether she's doing it.
And without wanting to be a dick about it I'm not in a position to be able to self-isolate for a couple of weeks everytime someone I might have walked past on the street sneezes.

Unless I have symptoms I am probably not going to do it and certainly not more than once.
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Old 27th January 2021, 08:01 AM   #3305
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The Welsh government has missed its Covid vaccination target for over-80's by a significant margin - and has blamed the weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-55814611

Complete rubbish IMO, there's a bigger issue than just the weather - and winter weather is hardly unexpected in winter.
Need more data really. Were the appointments not made or were they made and not attended? If the latter then it seems that you have to give them some leeway.
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Old 27th January 2021, 08:05 AM   #3306
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
And without wanting to be a dick about it I'm not in a position to be able to self-isolate for a couple of weeks everytime someone I might have walked past on the street sneezes.
...which is not how it works at all. In the case of human tracing someone who has tested positive would have to name you as someone they had had contact with. In the case of the app, you'd need to be within a couple of metres of someone for 15 minutes in 24 hours.

Mrs Don's friend's isolation is a result of her children's exposure (three times), once in the gym (four people were pinged including Mrs Don, I was too far away) and once by a neighbour. Mrs Don's friend has routinely broken lockdown rules by meeting people outdoors and going for walks/coffees with them in the true Karen style.

Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Unless I have symptoms I am probably not going to do it and certainly not more than once.
I guess that's why infection rates are so stubbornly high, people refusing to isolate when they've been exposed.
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Old 27th January 2021, 08:08 AM   #3307
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Need more data really. Were the appointments not made or were they made and not attended? If the latter then it seems that you have to give them some leeway.
Apparently "scores" of appointments were missed, but thousands of over-80's were unvaccinated.

The target was 70%, they actually managed 53%.
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Old 27th January 2021, 08:13 AM   #3308
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
As said, I know some of the people involved, it was science not politics. To simplify. You can give one dose to 100 people which will provide 50% protection or two doses to 50 people which provides 90% protection, which is the policy you should recommend? If there is no urgency in delivering the vaccine then the latter. In the current situation the former is the better policy for the population as a whole.

At present the limiting factor is vaccine supply not vaccine delivery. With time (hopefully) vaccine supply will ramp up. By the end of February the vaccine supply should be such that first dose vaccinations can continue at the same rate whilst second doses are delivered.

The single biggest risk factor for death or serious illness with covid is age. For every eight years mortality doubles. As you come down the age range with vaccination the benefit falls. If we have vaccinated all the over seventies by the end of February, vaccinating those under seventy will only reduce deaths by half (assuming a flat population profile) as compared with the 70 - 80 cohort. There is no evidence for any vaccine the second dose will double efficacy therefore the best policy is to maximise first dose coverage in the highest risk groups. Because mortality exponentially falls with age the urgency to vaccinate falls and you can move to delivering a second dose.

The JCVI have to recommend the best vaccine policy for the population of the UK, I have heard no one who is close to vaccination policy in the UK disagree with the decision. It may be a brave decision but I think it was the correct one for the UK at present. It would not be the correct decision for Australia or New Zealand. To reiterate JCVI is a four nation committee, England does not have a dominant voice. The Westminster government cannot dictate what the JCVI policy is.
It's all well and good making these calculations but how well do we understand what the numbers are and what the impact is going to be?

Do we know that extending the window to 12 weeks does no harm? And what if someone then misses their later 2nd appointment? Is 18 weeks OK? 24?

As for the age thing I think it's more complicated than that as you have to factor in the spread of the virus and the fact that people of a certain age are more likely to die of anything else that they get too.
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Old 27th January 2021, 08:55 AM   #3309
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I guess that's why infection rates are so stubbornly high, people refusing to isolate when they've been exposed.
If people aren't able to do it then it isn't going to happen. it's all well and good telling people to say home but I live alone and have a business. If I have to self isolate I have to close the business and lose customers or employ other people to open it for me. Both of which cost money. Money that nobody wants to pay back. And even then I still have to live and eat etc.

So yeah until that changes the chances are that if I was asked to isolate and had no symptoms I would probably have to ignore that request.
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Old 27th January 2021, 09:06 AM   #3310
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
If people aren't able to do it then it isn't going to happen. it's all well and good telling people to say home but I live alone and have a business. If I have to self isolate I have to close the business and lose customers or employ other people to open it for me. Both of which cost money. Money that nobody wants to pay back. And even then I still have to live and eat etc.

So yeah until that changes the chances are that if I was asked to isolate and had no symptoms I would probably have to ignore that request.
....and it seems that you are in the majority

Quote:
In the House of Commons, Liberal Democrat Layla Moran says the quarantine measures will not work without 100% compliance and adds that only one in five people currently self-isolate when asked to.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

If only 20% of those asked to self-isolate do so, then there's no mystery why infection rates are so high. I'm not sure what can be done in these circumstances. How many people have to die in the UK before people take Covid seriously ?

Clearly 100,000 isn't enough

Is 500,000 ? A million ?

Archie Gemmill Goal, what would the death toll have to be before you'd actually isolate if you were asymptomatic but were pinged ? I'm not getting at you personally but you're almost like a bell-weather. You're well informed but you also have a lot of "skin" in the game.

It's easy for me to pontificate, I live rurally, I have Mrs Don and two catbeasts around to entertain me. The effects on my business from Covid have been negligible as all work can be done remotely. I also don't really like being around people so apart from missing out on band practice and the occasional pub visit, I'm living my best life.
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Old 27th January 2021, 11:14 AM   #3311
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telegraph

After this grim milestone, we need a glimmer of hope
There are many positive stories which would bring much-needed optimism to millions but the BBC continues its remorseless scaremongering

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/li...-glimmer-hope/
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Old 28th January 2021, 03:10 AM   #3312
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People's expectations of a gradual lifting of "lockdown" restrictions in the short to medium term are being supported by an apparent drop in the number of infections to a fraction of their Christmas levels.

Unfortunately this is not supported by randomised testing which shows that the drop is negligible:

Quote:
Scientists behind a study tracking coronavirus in England say there are signs of a "shallow decline" in infection levels but they remain high.

And with not all regions seeing the same downward trend, pressure on health services is likely to continue.

Some 1.57% of people had had the virus between 6 and 22 January - slightly down from 1.58% in early January, the researchers said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55827497

If the number of positive tests in the headline statistic is a half or a third of the Christmas value, does this mean that fewer people are being tested, that people are only going for tests when they're very sick or that people are avoiding being tested so that they don't have to isolate ?

Whatever, the tiny drop is not good news.
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Old 28th January 2021, 03:56 AM   #3313
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Meanwhile, the idiocy continues: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...sk-say-leaders

Now, at what point am I allowed to say that these folk are just out and out stupid, rather than pretending they are misguided or mistaken or whatever as has happened over so many similar things? And at what point is someone going to take some serious legal heat to their arses? Fines for breaching Covid regs? How about assault, reckless endangerment, attempted murder, conspiracy to endanger (is that a thing here or have I watched too much Merkinaian stuff?), or something?
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Old 28th January 2021, 03:58 AM   #3314
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Gove refuses to back action against Tory MP over Covid comment

Quote:
The Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove, has refused to call for action to be taken against his Tory party colleague Sir Desmond Swayne for suggesting official data should not be trusted and encouraging fringe groups of lockdown-sceptics and anti-vaxxers.
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Old 28th January 2021, 04:30 AM   #3315
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
....and it seems that you are in the majority



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

If only 20% of those asked to self-isolate do so, then there's no mystery why infection rates are so high. I'm not sure what can be done in these circumstances. How many people have to die in the UK before people take Covid seriously ?

Clearly 100,000 isn't enough

Is 500,000 ? A million ?

Archie Gemmill Goal, what would the death toll have to be before you'd actually isolate if you were asymptomatic but were pinged ? I'm not getting at you personally but you're almost like a bell-weather. You're well informed but you also have a lot of "skin" in the game.

It's easy for me to pontificate, I live rurally, I have Mrs Don and two catbeasts around to entertain me. The effects on my business from Covid have been negligible as all work can be done remotely. I also don't really like being around people so apart from missing out on band practice and the occasional pub visit, I'm living my best life.
I seriously doubt that 1 in 5 of people asked to self-isolate are in my situation so I think you need to divide out people who aren't doing it because of apathy or selfishness and those who have genuine issues with doing it. My decision on whether to self-isolate or not is not based on the death toll but on the impact of the decision.

That's why I am doing my best not to become infected or exposed. I don't go out anywhere other than to grocery shop or to work. I don't visit anyone else's home and don't have anyone else visit my home. I wear a mask. I keep a distance from people.

Unfortunately my business is retail so I do get several interactions with people in a day any of whom could be infected.

So far touch wood I have had no symptoms, don't really know anyone who has been infected and have never been asked to isolate.

But yeah I have to be honest and say that if i got a call today to say 'one of your customers has become infected and named you as a contact' then I'm not really in a position financially or practically to just drop everything and stay home for a fortnight. I'm relying on the fact that I have no close exposure to just about anyone.

Given my financial situation right now I am very much dreading ever getting the actual virus as there's a reasonable chance that a prolonged absence would kill the business, and i'd probably lose my house.
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Old 28th January 2021, 04:49 AM   #3316
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
Don't worry, he will if there's enough negative publicity and public outrage over the MP's comments.
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Old 28th January 2021, 04:59 AM   #3317
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Don't worry, he will if there's enough negative publicity and public outrage over the MP's comments.
And he needs give a nod and a wink for his next chance of trying for leadership.

It is pure politics for Gove, I think Gove gives a little prayer every night to be more and more like Peter Mandelson.
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Old 28th January 2021, 06:52 AM   #3318
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I seriously doubt that 1 in 5 of people asked to self-isolate are in my situation so I think you need to divide out people who aren't doing it because of apathy or selfishness and those who have genuine issues with doing it. My decision on whether to self-isolate or not is not based on the death toll but on the impact of the decision.

That's why I am doing my best not to become infected or exposed. I don't go out anywhere other than to grocery shop or to work. I don't visit anyone else's home and don't have anyone else visit my home. I wear a mask. I keep a distance from people.

Unfortunately my business is retail so I do get several interactions with people in a day any of whom could be infected.

So far touch wood I have had no symptoms, don't really know anyone who has been infected and have never been asked to isolate.

But yeah I have to be honest and say that if i got a call today to say 'one of your customers has become infected and named you as a contact' then I'm not really in a position financially or practically to just drop everything and stay home for a fortnight. I'm relying on the fact that I have no close exposure to just about anyone.

Given my financial situation right now I am very much dreading ever getting the actual virus as there's a reasonable chance that a prolonged absence would kill the business, and i'd probably lose my house.

If your interactions with customers are short, if you wear a mask and have a perspex screen in place, and your business premises are well ventilated, you should not be at serious risk. (Wash your hands after touching anything a customer has touched, obviously.)

You might look into getting some FFP3 masks for your personal use. They protect you from the virus, and can be worn under a cloth mask in order to protect others from you. A "disposable" FFP3 mask can actually be reused quite a lot, by drying it out on a radiator between uses. If you have two or three you can rotate them. I managed to make two old ones which were a bit ratty spin out for nine months until I found a firm with some for sale. Unfortunately that firm has since doubled its prices (from £5 to £10 a mask) and even so they're back on "awaiting stock".
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Old 28th January 2021, 08:36 AM   #3319
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Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King View Post
Now, at what point am I allowed to say that these folk are just out and out stupid, rather than pretending they are misguided or mistaken or whatever as has happened over so many similar things? And at what point is someone going to take some serious legal heat to their arses? Fines for breaching Covid regs? How about assault, reckless endangerment, attempted murder, conspiracy to endanger (is that a thing here or have I watched too much Merkinaian stuff?), or something?

Fines appeal to this current government because they can be written off by the wealthy as an inconvenience whereas jail time cannot.
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Old 28th January 2021, 09:22 AM   #3320
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The Isle of Man have been putting people in jail for breaching quarantine. Remind me, how many cases are there on the island?
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