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Old 29th January 2021, 08:00 AM   #3361
The Don
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
People are supposed to be working at home, and schools are meant to be closed though. Which again was part of the point i made. If you want to point fingers then point them at billionaires telling their workers they still have to go to the office even though they could be working at home.
Yes, that's a factor and one which ought to be addressed.

Then again, as Rolfe pointed out, there are plenty of people meeting up indoors socially and even having parties.
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Old 29th January 2021, 08:37 AM   #3362
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This epidemic is driven by people who are not part of the same household meeting indoors. Obviously some such meetings are unavoidable, for example home carers, or essential work that has to be indoors and can't be done from home. Laboratory analysis is one such example. Some meetings are worth the risk, such as spending as short a time as possible in a shop, wearing a mask and distancing from other shoppers.

But beyond that, indoor meetings need to be stopped, somehow. Stop these and we'll stop the virus. Criticising people for outdoor activities is a distraction from the real problem and a waste of time.
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Old 29th January 2021, 09:15 AM   #3363
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
But beyond that, indoor meetings need to be stopped, somehow. Stop these and we'll stop the virus. Criticising people for outdoor activities is a distraction from the real problem and a waste of time.
So many different solutions. We all need to just get round a table and thrash this out........
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Old 29th January 2021, 09:22 AM   #3364
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
It was all part of the same behaviour though. Taking the kids out to play and then stopping off at the shop opposite on the way home.



This wasn't a public park but a private farmers field. In any case, the gates haven't been taken off the public parks here that I am aware of



Well yes they should which was kind of my point.



People are supposed to be working at home, and schools are meant to be closed though. Which again was part of the point i made. If you want to point fingers then point them at billionaires telling their workers they still have to go to the office even though they could be working at home.


IMV breathing in someone's aerosol droplets from their breath as they speak to you or sneeze/cough around you is a much greater hazard than touching fomites on a surface. It's possible someone sneezed over the apples but open fruit and veg one normally washes anyway.

You should know that since Sept 2020 you no longer have freedom of choice as to whether to self-isolate. If you get a message from a contact tracer to self-isolate, technically-speaking, the police can access this order and prosecute if you haven't complied.
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Old 29th January 2021, 09:28 AM   #3365
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My UK friend's dad died of covid today. He did have Alzheimers but not particularly severely. He was in a care home since he lived alone and needed outside help. Barely 75.

Grrr.

ETA: He did have a vaccination last week but evidently, too late.
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Last edited by Vixen; 29th January 2021 at 10:03 AM.
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Old 29th January 2021, 09:47 AM   #3366
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Good news on the Vaccine front:

EMA - EU regulators - have passed the AstraZeneca vaccine but for over-18's only. Germany advises it is not for over-65's. I expect each country will have their own guidelines.

Second good news is the successful trials of the Janssen / Johnson & Johnson vaccine:

Quote:
ohnson & Johnson’s long-awaited vaccine appears to protect against COVID-19 with just one shot – not as strong as some two-shot rivals but still potentially helpful for a world in dire need of more doses.

J&J said Friday that in the U.S. and seven other countries, the single-shot vaccine was 66% effective overall at preventing moderate to severe illness, and much more protective — 85% — against the most serious symptoms.

There was some geographic variation. The vaccine worked better in the U.S. — 72% effective against moderate to severe COVID-19 – compared to 57% in South Africa, where it was up against an easier-to-spread mutated virus.
https://apnews.com/article/j-and-j-c...bf6195031880a3

Whilst its efficacy might appear lower than Pfizer or Moderna, it is not really comparing like-for-like. It is similar to AstraZeneca in that it has been cultivated from cold-virus cells in presumably laboratory monkeys (as opposed to a synthetic spike-programming RNA restructure like Pfizer and Moderna). It has the advantage in being tested against current viruses including the many mutations. It is virtually 100% effective against death and severe to moderate illness, apart from the SA-variant at 50%. Pfizer/Moderna may have to develop a third-shot booster jab to address this variant.

So the J & J vaccine is: just one shot needed and high level of protection given. Cheap. No special storage requirements.

Won't be available for another month.
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Last edited by Vixen; 29th January 2021 at 09:49 AM.
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Old 29th January 2021, 10:37 AM   #3367
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It depends on how outraged the tabloids and Telegraph are.

If they're angry about lack of compliance then the authorities will get right onto enforcement.

If they're furious about heavy-handed police restricting civil liberties then they won't.
Well, quite. Hence my, admittedly cynical, citing of my sister's experiences at Kings in the early '90s...

Both The Sister and I (both being or having been of the nursey persuasion - yes, Wudang, I'm hot! Ask CFQ ) and Carrot Flower Queen (being an ex NHS payroll and IT bod) have bees in our capacious bonnets about lack of prosectution of folk for assaulting NHS staff and the lack of attention paid to this by NHS management and the DoH.

A public order offence for that bolleaux seems of a piece with what we saw and heard over 3 or 4 decades.
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Old 29th January 2021, 12:57 PM   #3368
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
A cynic might wonder what, er, 'inducements' might have been made to AstraZeneca to get them to favour the UK? Tasty contracts to come? Lordships?

The EU seem a tad miffed about the whole business.
Inducements include;

NHS support for vaccine trials. It is worth looking at how many vaccine trials have been completed in the UK vs in the EU. The NHS has given a great deal of support to these trials. I am not sure any have been completed (meaning large RCT phase 3 trials) in the EU.

Early UK government contracts to buy vaccines that are licensed. We do not of course know what is in those contracts, though Jean Freeman / Scottish government did leak the AZ contract which is what precipitated the issue (as they were warned it would).

UK government subsidy for building vaccine factories on spec. Astra-Zeneca had no vaccine manufacturing capability in the UK before 2020, and only manufactured flu vaccine, it was predominantly a drug company. Initial doses of the AZ vaccine for early trials were made by Oxford University. The Jansen facility is new build.

Co-operation between licensing authorities and vaccine manufacturers to ensure rapid approval of vaccines.

These are all important issues for the companies, and commitment to support trials in particular is often associated with a commitment to prioritise the market. The UK took a gamble early, and a big gamble as compared with the EU, and in general that means better returns.

One could make a case on equity grounds that priority should be given to those countries affected worse, so there is a moral case that the UK should have a disproportionate share of vaccine as compared with e.g. Germany.
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Old 29th January 2021, 01:06 PM   #3369
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Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King View Post
Well, quite. Hence my, admittedly cynical, citing of my sister's experiences at Kings in the early '90s...

Both The Sister and I (both being or having been of the nursey persuasion - yes, Wudang, I'm hot! Ask CFQ ) and Carrot Flower Queen (being an ex NHS payroll and IT bod) have bees in our capacious bonnets about lack of prosectution of folk for assaulting NHS staff and the lack of attention paid to this by NHS management and the DoH.

A public order offence for that bolleaux seems of a piece with what we saw and heard over 3 or 4 decades.
I did understand the sub-text; having variously lived off Coldharbour Lane, Denmark Hill, Railton Road and Effra Road as a student and being non-white it was just too obvious, I preferred the RomCom option.
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Old 30th January 2021, 05:27 AM   #3370
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So as of this morning the EU has backed off and gotten some sharp criticism from WHO into the bargain:

Coronavirus: WHO criticises EU over vaccine export controls

EU vaccine export row: Bloc backtracks on controls for NI

It appears that EU Commission neglected to ask the Irish their opinion on the matter before charging ahead.
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Old 30th January 2021, 05:39 AM   #3371
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Took my mother for har jab yesterday.
very efficient, we were in and out in about 5 minutes, the hospital has a corridor of consulting rooms each with two 'jab stations' in it.
People are on a one way route, name taken on the way in then details on a form, get a jab and out through a different corridor and exit.
We were back home less than half an hour after we left, that included a 10 minute drive each way.
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Old 30th January 2021, 11:30 AM   #3372
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There is a bit of a dilemma for the vaccine makers. So AZ have some manufacturing capacity in Europe, they have been making vaccine and stockpiling it pending approval. When the Uk had approved AZ vaccine use stocks in Europe went to be used in the UK. It was a month later that the EU approved the vaccine.

There is an issue, should AZ have stockpiled the vaccine pending approval (at an uncertain date in future) for use in the EU, or should the vaccine have been released released to the UK to use? The latter is what I think happened. The UK took advantage of vaccine doses stockpiled prior to approval. This leaves the EU having to rely on current manufacturing capability which is below planned and in competition with the UK.

I assume in due course the doses the UK committed to buy that are in excess to need will be donated for global use to e.g. covax.

Last edited by Planigale; 30th January 2021 at 11:33 AM.
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Old 30th January 2021, 11:36 AM   #3373
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Good news on the Vaccine front:

EMA - EU regulators - have passed the AstraZeneca vaccine but for over-18's only. Germany advises it is not for over-65's. I expect each country will have their own guidelines.

Second good news is the successful trials of the Janssen / Johnson & Johnson vaccine:

https://apnews.com/article/j-and-j-c...bf6195031880a3

Whilst its efficacy might appear lower than Pfizer or Moderna, it is not really comparing like-for-like. It is similar to AstraZeneca in that it has been cultivated from cold-virus cells in presumably laboratory monkeys (as opposed to a synthetic spike-programming RNA restructure like Pfizer and Moderna). It has the advantage in being tested against current viruses including the many mutations. It is virtually 100% effective against death and severe to moderate illness, apart from the SA-variant at 50%. Pfizer/Moderna may have to develop a third-shot booster jab to address this variant.

So the J & J vaccine is: just one shot needed and high level of protection given. Cheap. No special storage requirements.

Won't be available for another month.
No!

Tissue culture. It would be unbelievably expensive to use primates, and hugely controversial.
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Old 30th January 2021, 11:54 AM   #3374
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
No!

Tissue culture. It would be unbelievably expensive to use primates, and hugely controversial.
Are you sure about that?

AIUI the lipids are derived from chimpanzee cells which will need to be replenished at some point in the future.

Quote:
The AZD1222 vaccine is a replication-deficient simian adenovirus vector, containing the full‐length codon‐optimized coding sequence of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein along with a tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) leader sequence.[18]

The researchers used the SARS-CoV-2 genome that had been sequenced in Wuhan. The modified chimpanzee adenovirus namely the Titi monkey adenovirus ECC-201[19], cannot replicate, so does not cause further infection, and instead acts as a vector to transfer the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.[20]
wiki


How vaccines are developed:

Quote:
HEK-293 cell line
The manufacturing process for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine involves the production of a virus, the adenovirus, which carries the genetic material to the cells inside the body. To produce this virus in the laboratory, a “host” cell line is needed. The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine uses a cell line called HEK-293 cells.

HEK-293 is the name given to a specific line of cells used in various scientific applications. The original cells were taken from the kidney of a legally aborted foetus in 1973. HEK-293 cells used nowadays are clones of those original cells, but are not themselves the cells of aborted babies.

The Department for Social Justice of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of England and Wales released a statement addressing the use of HEK-293 cells in the COVID-19 vaccine. They say that “one may in good conscience and for a grave reason receive a vaccine sourced in this way”, and “that one does not sin by receiving the vaccine”.

Other therapeutic products which use HEK-293 cells as a producer cell line include Ad5 based vaccines, such as Cansino’s COVID-19 vaccine, Adeno associated viruses (AAV) and lentiviruses as gene therapy vectors for various diseases. Many of these products are in clinical trials.

Animal Cell Lines
Viruses for some vaccines are grown in laboratories using animal cell cultures. This is because viruses will only grow in human or animal cells. In the UK schedule this applies to these vaccines:

The polio part of the 6-in-1 vaccine (Infanrix Hexa), the pre-school booster vaccines (Repevax, Infanrix IPV and Boostrix-IPV) and the teenage booster vaccine (Revaxis)
The Rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix)
One of the Inactivated flu vaccines (QIVc)
Viruses for these vaccines are grown on Vero cells. This is a cell line started in the 1960s using kidney cells from an African green monkey.
Oxford


See also here about how the creatures were used to test whether the vaccines worked.

Quote:
Does the data support the claim?

Not really. All of the vaccinated monkeys treated with the Oxford vaccine became infected when challenged, as judged by recovery of virus genomic RNA from nasal secretions. There was no difference in the amount of viral RNA detected from this site in the vaccinated monkeys as compared to the unvaccinated animals. Which is to say, all vaccinated animals were infected. This observation is in marked contrast to the results reported from Sinovac trial. At the highest dose studied, no virus was recovered from vaccinated monkeys from the throat, lung, or rectum of the vaccinated animals.
Forbes

It is easy to see why the process is glossed over.
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Old 30th January 2021, 03:40 PM   #3375
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Are you sure about that?

AIUI the lipids are derived from chimpanzee cells which will need to be replenished at some point in the future.

wiki


How vaccines are developed:

Oxford


See also here about how the creatures were used to test whether the vaccines worked.

Forbes

It is easy to see why the process is glossed over.
What you just quoted from wikipedia confirms what Planigale said and which you questioned, that tissue culture is used, not live primates.
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Old 30th January 2021, 06:07 PM   #3376
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
What you just quoted from wikipedia confirms what Planigale said and which you questioned, that tissue culture is used, not live primates.
Primates are extensively used in Covid19 vaccine development.

The AstraZeneca vaccine is based a chimpanzee adenovirus. Of course, this comes from a chimpanzee. Of course they have to kill it first and access its liver!

Quote:
The researchers added the gene for the coronavirus spike protein to another virus called an adenovirus. Adenoviruses are common viruses that typically cause colds or flu-like symptoms. The Oxford-AstraZeneca team used a modified version of a chimpanzee adenovirus, known as ChAdOx1. It can enter cells, but it can’t replicate inside them.
NY TIMES

See also:

Quote:
The Oxford vaccine, named ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, is based on a different technology to the two recent “mRNA” vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, both of which performed well against Covid. No mRNA vaccine has ever been approved by regulators, but the Oxford approach has been used in vaccines given safely to thousands of people of all ages for diseases ranging from TB and malaria to Mers (another coronavirus) and Ebola, for which it is now being used in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Oxford opted for the chimp virus because it has the potential to generate a strong immune response and, since it cannot grow in humans, it should be safe.
GUARDIAN

And...


Quote:
The reasons for the shortage are threefold. First, COVID-19 has created extraordinary demand for monkeys. Second, this coincided with a massive drop in supply from China, which provided 60 percent of the nearly 35,000 monkeys imported to the U.S. last year and which shut off exports after COVID-19 hit. And third, these pandemic-related events are exacerbating preexisting monkey shortfalls. A 2018 National Institutes of Health report had found that NIH-funded national primate centers would be unable to meet future demand and specifically discussed a “strategic monkey reserve” to provide “surge capability for unpredictable disease outbreaks.” A disease outbreak is upon us; the strategic monkey reserve was never created.
The Atlantic

It is naive to believe 'real primates are not used because it would be controversial'.

The establishment of the African Green Monkey Model

Quote:
Clinical disease in AGMs
In a narrowly focused study to examine acute pathogenesis and protection from back-challenge, we exposed six adult AGMs to 4.6 × 105 plaque-forming units (p.f.u.) of SARS-CoV-2 by combined intratracheal and intranasal routes. A cohort of three animals was euthanized at 5 d post-infection (dpi), while the remaining three animals were re-challenged via the same routes at 35 dpi (identical virus strain and dose). These group numbers are in line with previous SARS-CoV-2 NHP studies8,9,10,11,13,19,20. Back-challenged subjects were monitored for an additional 22 d. For each cohort, longitudinal blood and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples were collected throughout the study up until the respective study end point.
Nature.com


As I pointed out before, the Astra Zeneca one and similar Janssen Johnson & Johnson (plus the Russian and Chinese ones, SPUTNIK and SINO) have been developed and passed by the regulators quickly because the model is not new and has been well-tried and tested in the past.
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Old 31st January 2021, 04:29 AM   #3377
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Primates are extensively used in Covid19 vaccine development.

The AstraZeneca vaccine is based a chimpanzee adenovirus. Of course, this comes from a chimpanzee. Of course they have to kill it first and access its liver!

NY TIMES

See also:

GUARDIAN

And...


The Atlantic

It is naive to believe 'real primates are not used because it would be controversial'.

The establishment of the African Green Monkey Model

Nature.com


As I pointed out before, the Astra Zeneca one and similar Janssen Johnson & Johnson (plus the Russian and Chinese ones, SPUTNIK and SINO) have been developed and passed by the regulators quickly because the model is not new and has been well-tried and tested in the past.
What would not be done is to take a new viral strain from nature. They use a standardised virus whose genome has been sequenced and whose behaviour is well understood. The viral strain used has been registered and in stock for about 20 years. It is grown in a human (fetal) cell line. There is a better case for arguing that they will need to be taking babies than monkeys to continue with production - to be clear this is not going to happen, no need to lock up the children! Since it is a human cell line there would be no reason to use chimp derived lipids. In fact lipids historically derived from fetal bovine serum, sometimes with the addition of an egg yolk. Nowadays culture media tends to be made using purified very specific lipids, these will be animal derived, but from cattle or pigs.

This is a different issue from research on the pathogenicity of the virus, which may use primates, although ferrets are also widely used. There will have been some animal testing before the first human test subjects were injected. But since the viral carrier had already been tested and used for other diseases and given the urgency this would have been minimal.

Last edited by Planigale; 31st January 2021 at 04:37 AM.
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Old 31st January 2021, 04:53 AM   #3378
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Took my mother for har jab yesterday.
very efficient, we were in and out in about 5 minutes, the hospital has a corridor of consulting rooms each with two 'jab stations' in it.
People are on a one way route, name taken on the way in then details on a form, get a jab and out through a different corridor and exit.
We were back home less than half an hour after we left, that included a 10 minute drive each way.
My vaccination at a huge Nightingale Hospital involved a less than 1 minute queue and it took longer to walk there and back from the nearest parking than it did to be vaccinated.

My father also took less than 5 minutes at his local town hall. My wife was about 35 minutes at a local hospital.

In each place there was an incredible number of security guards. I wonder if they were worried about being swamped, anti-vaxxer protests or attempts to steal vaccine. After the behaviour of so many people panic buying and then ignoring the regs and advice, vaccination seems to be progressing at a remarkably calm, measured pace. Thank goodness.
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Old 31st January 2021, 04:56 AM   #3379
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https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-b1794920.html

"I’m a Covid vaccinator and thousands of doses are being thrown away every day – it’s an outrage"

But in the article the anon doctor states that at the end of the day he/she is left with 1 to 3 unused doses to ditch and then he/she extrapolates that to 1-3000 doses a day being wasted. But the average number of doses being administered as of yesterday was about 353,000 a day, so that waste is 0.4%.

I think if the vaccination programme runs at 99.4% efficient, that is amazing.
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Old 31st January 2021, 04:56 AM   #3380
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Primates are extensively used in Covid19 vaccine development.
That is not the point at issue, whether it be true or not. What you said was:

Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
It is similar to AstraZeneca in that it has been cultivated from cold-virus cells in presumably laboratory monkeys (as opposed to a synthetic spike-programming RNA restructure like Pfizer and Moderna).
When challenged on this, you quoted from wikipedia without apparently reading what you copied.
Quote:
HEK-293 cells used nowadays are clones of those original cells,
...
This is a cell line started in the 1960s using kidney cells from an African green monkey.
Also, what is a 'cold-virus cell'?
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The AstraZeneca vaccine is based a chimpanzee adenovirus. Of course, this comes from a chimpanzee. Of course they have to kill it first and access its liver!
With fava beans and a nice Chianti? Citation please.

From here:
Quote:
Wilson’s lab at Penn began hunting for chimpanzee adenoviruses, which the researchers isolated from the animal’s feces. Soon after, Ertl’s lab at Wistar began collaborating with Wilson to use the chimpanzee adenoviruses as a novel vaccine vector.

Other groups adopted the idea too. “Chimpanzees are very protected, but stools can be easily collected,” says Stefano Colloca
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Old 31st January 2021, 05:29 AM   #3381
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
What would not be done is to take a new viral strain from nature. They use a standardised virus whose genome has been sequenced and whose behaviour is well understood. The viral strain used has been registered and in stock for about 20 years. It is grown in a human (fetal) cell line. There is a better case for arguing that they will need to be taking babies than monkeys to continue with production - to be clear this is not going to happen, no need to lock up the children! Since it is a human cell line there would be no reason to use chimp derived lipids. In fact lipids historically derived from fetal bovine serum, sometimes with the addition of an egg yolk. Nowadays culture media tends to be made using purified very specific lipids, these will be animal derived, but from cattle or pigs.

This is a different issue from research on the pathogenicity of the virus, which may use primates, although ferrets are also widely used. There will have been some animal testing before the first human test subjects were injected. But since the viral carrier had already been tested and used for other diseases and given the urgency this would have been minimal.
To correct myself, the original Y25 virus was registered in 2014, so would have been isolated earlier. The Oxford vaccine strain was derived from this pre-existing strain.
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Old 31st January 2021, 09:17 AM   #3382
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The Guardian reports on how some EU papers reported on the EU/AZ issue



https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...id-vaccine-row
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Old 31st January 2021, 09:20 AM   #3383
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-b1794920.html

"I’m a Covid vaccinator and thousands of doses are being thrown away every day – it’s an outrage"

But in the article the anon doctor states that at the end of the day he/she is left with 1 to 3 unused doses to ditch and then he/she extrapolates that to 1-3000 doses a day being wasted. But the average number of doses being administered as of yesterday was about 353,000 a day, so that waste is 0.4%.

I think if the vaccination programme runs at 99.4% efficient, that is amazing.
I agree. The papers are desperate for an outrage.

Another report had "scores" of people failing to turn up. If that's scores out of thousands, then that's a stunning rate of people turning up.
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Old 31st January 2021, 09:30 AM   #3384
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I'm very happy to report that I've been completely wrong about the UK vaccination programme, it looks to be picking up pace very well. Nearly 600,000 people were vaccinated yesterday. If that rate continues, it'll be less than 6 months for all adults to be vaccinated twice.
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Old 31st January 2021, 09:49 AM   #3385
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Yep, and MrsB and I get jabbed tomorrow at 2:25, just down the road at our local GP's. Then we continue staying as safe as we can possibly manage.
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Old 31st January 2021, 09:52 AM   #3386
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The chat before Zoom church this morning was dominated by people reporting, with big grins on their faces, that they'd had their first dose. One lady said she slept for two days afterwards, but since she had had surgery to plate a broken ankle only days earlier I'm not that surprised. (The staff at the Health Centre took one look at her getting out of the car with her crutches and rushed out saying, "We'll do you in the car!") Her husband, who in all probability had the virus back in April, reported no side effects.

A friend DMed me on Twitter to say that she and her husband both have appointments, although she isn't yet 70. And this is against a background of Scotland being slower to get started in the community because we were prioritising care home residents in the first few weeks.

If the vaccine stocks are sufficient I don't see why we shouldn't get through the population reasonably quickly. It's not like the free-for-all in the USA.
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Old 31st January 2021, 10:07 AM   #3387
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm very happy to report that I've been completely wrong about the UK vaccination programme, it looks to be picking up pace very well. Nearly 600,000 people were vaccinated yesterday. If that rate continues, it'll be less than 6 months for all adults to be vaccinated twice.
Yes, at least on the ground locally, things seem to be going well, though the latest local news is that vaccine supplies have dropped recently, possibly because areas with higher incidence of Covid-19 are being served first. The lack of notice doesn't help with planning, though.

A confusing factor is that people may be getting two invitations, one from the centralised NHS to the big centres being set up, which may not be very close by, and one from the GP.

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The chat before Zoom church this morning was dominated by people reporting, with big grins on their faces, that they'd had their first dose.
My mum said she felt very happy after having had her second jab. She's fully aware that it takes time to have full effect and that she's not invulnerable after, but there was a big sense of relief.
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Old 31st January 2021, 10:35 AM   #3388
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The thing to remember about a mass vaccination campaign is that the objective is not really that each individual should be individually protected by the vaccine, but that the co-ordinated campaign should stop local community spread of the virus. That is what protects people, including people who can't be vaccinated for whatever reason (maybe an allergy) and people who have been vaccinated but who didn't mount a protective immune response themselves.

My intention is to get whatever vaccinations anyone is prepared to give me, but so far as my own behaviour is concerned I will base that far more on the local incidence figures for new cases than on any assumption that I'm immune. I'm ready to stay isolated until the end of April if necessary - after that, if they haven't got things under control, I'll probably have to don the FFP3 and hit a supermarket and the pet emporium. But I'm hopeful that by then things should be looking a lot better.

I think people (including some very angry pessimistic fatalists in the vaccination thread itself) are massively underestimating what a co-ordinated vaccination campaign can achieve in the face of something like this. Once most people have had the vaccine the R value should be a damn sight lower than 1, and if the other public health measures also keep going (test, trace, isolate, essentially) then the thing should be driven into smaller and smaller pockets that can be jumped on. Newer vaccines aimed at producing IgA in the upper respiratory tract should also help, especially if the injectable viruses are not 100% preventing transmission. I also wonder if the vaccine-hesitant demographic will be less averse to having a nose drop or nasal spray instead of an injection.

Of course there's always the danger that the government just opens up too soon and abandons the test trace isolate part, in which case it will take a lot longer to get back to normal, but as other countries do it right I think it will become unavoidable if we don't want to be an international pariah.

I also have reservations about the towns where there is a high percentage of Asian multi-generational families living in cramped conditions. Apparently Asian people are more likely to be vaccine-hesitant, and these living conditions are about as bad as it can be for suppressing the virus. It's going to take hard work and sensitivity to get the numbers down in these places. Most of the religious leaders aren't stupid, though, and if they can see that their communities are doing badly and that low vaccine uptake is the probable reason, there could be some action.

There is every reason to hope that by this time next year the "annual vaccination" will be aimed at depriving newly-introduced virus that got past the international travel restrictions of a naive population to run wild in, rather than protecing individuals from ongoing community spread, which will no longer be a thing. If that doesn't happen it will be because we've done it wrong. Again.
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Last edited by Rolfe; 31st January 2021 at 10:39 AM.
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Old 31st January 2021, 01:52 PM   #3389
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The thing to remember about a mass vaccination campaign is that the objective is not really that each individual should be individually protected by the vaccine, but that the co-ordinated campaign should stop local community spread of the virus. That is what protects people, including people who can't be vaccinated for whatever reason (maybe an allergy) and people who have been vaccinated but who didn't mount a protective immune response themselves.

My intention is to get whatever vaccinations anyone is prepared to give me, but so far as my own behaviour is concerned I will base that far more on the local incidence figures for new cases than on any assumption that I'm immune. I'm ready to stay isolated until the end of April if necessary - after that, if they haven't got things under control, I'll probably have to don the FFP3 and hit a supermarket and the pet emporium. But I'm hopeful that by then things should be looking a lot better.

I think people (including some very angry pessimistic fatalists in the vaccination thread itself) are massively underestimating what a co-ordinated vaccination campaign can achieve in the face of something like this. Once most people have had the vaccine the R value should be a damn sight lower than 1, and if the other public health measures also keep going (test, trace, isolate, essentially) then the thing should be driven into smaller and smaller pockets that can be jumped on. Newer vaccines aimed at producing IgA in the upper respiratory tract should also help, especially if the injectable viruses are not 100% preventing transmission. I also wonder if the vaccine-hesitant demographic will be less averse to having a nose drop or nasal spray instead of an injection.

Of course there's always the danger that the government just opens up too soon and abandons the test trace isolate part, in which case it will take a lot longer to get back to normal, but as other countries do it right I think it will become unavoidable if we don't want to be an international pariah.

I also have reservations about the towns where there is a high percentage of Asian multi-generational families living in cramped conditions. Apparently Asian people are more likely to be vaccine-hesitant, and these living conditions are about as bad as it can be for suppressing the virus. It's going to take hard work and sensitivity to get the numbers down in these places. Most of the religious leaders aren't stupid, though, and if they can see that their communities are doing badly and that low vaccine uptake is the probable reason, there could be some action.

There is every reason to hope that by this time next year the "annual vaccination" will be aimed at depriving newly-introduced virus that got past the international travel restrictions of a naive population to run wild in, rather than protecing individuals from ongoing community spread, which will no longer be a thing. If that doesn't happen it will be because we've done it wrong. Again.
Rolfe is correct considering a classical vaccination campaign. But this is not the primary aim here (although it would be nice if this was the consequence). The primary aim is to stop severe illness reducing morbidity, mortality and pressure on hospital bed occupancy. We do not yet know if any or all vaccines stop transmission. Only if they do so can we look forward to the type of herd immunity Rolfe suggests.

This is one of the reasons why we are not yet reducing requirements for self isolation or social distancing for those who are vaccinated, they may still transmit virus.

Since this is a political thread, I'll make a political comment. In the UK the opposition labour party are campaigning to prioritise teacher vaccination. Initially they claimed that teachers were at increased risk despite statistics showing that teachers were at normal population risk, now they are saying that it will avoid teachers needing to self isolate. This is also incorrect, if exposed to a case then you still need to self isolate even if vaccinated, if you have symptom you still need to self isolate even if vaccinated. It may be a good idea to vaccinate teachers, but it will be to reassure teachers not for any special public health reason. (Teachers are alleged to be Labour voting in general, so a cynical interpretation is Labour are doing this to curry favour with an important section of voters.)
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Old 31st January 2021, 02:10 PM   #3390
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Initially they claimed that teachers were at increased risk despite statistics showing that teachers were at normal population risk, now they are saying that it will avoid teachers needing to self isolate.
Are you sure? Did those statistics take into consideration the number of teachers working from home, teaching online?
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Old 31st January 2021, 04:11 PM   #3391
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Are you sure? Did those statistics take into consideration the number of teachers working from home, teaching online?
Teachers should be more at risk than the general population since teaching went on when other businesses were locked down. But going to the experts;

Quote:
Rates of death involving COVID-19 in men and women who worked as teaching and educational professionals, such as secondary school teachers, were not statistically significantly raised when compared with the rates seen in the population among those of the same age and sex.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...28december2020

For a less technical approach BBC reality check.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55841748
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Old 31st January 2021, 04:48 PM   #3392
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Are you sure? Did those statistics take into consideration the number of teachers working from home, teaching online?
Actually my concern was more about the argument that vaccination would reduce the need for teachers to self isolate. Currently until we know that vaccination stops carriage and transmission this is untrue. It is unhelpful for the opposition to be putting out a message that social isolation / self isolation is unnecessary once you are vaccinated.* If a teacher has been a contact or is symptomatic they need to isolate regardless of vaccination status (as is true for every other occupational group).

*There is a real problem locally with the over 80s from care homes going out on pub crawls because they think they are safe!
(Not sure what this smiley means but this is a joke.)
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Old 31st January 2021, 05:15 PM   #3393
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Rolfe is correct considering a classical vaccination campaign. But this is not the primary aim here (although it would be nice if this was the consequence). The primary aim is to stop severe illness reducing morbidity, mortality and pressure on hospital bed occupancy. We do not yet know if any or all vaccines stop transmission. Only if they do so can we look forward to the type of herd immunity Rolfe suggests.

This is one of the reasons why we are not yet reducing requirements for self isolation or social distancing for those who are vaccinated, they may still transmit virus.

Since this is a political thread, I'll make a political comment. In the UK the opposition labour party are campaigning to prioritise teacher vaccination. Initially they claimed that teachers were at increased risk despite statistics showing that teachers were at normal population risk, now they are saying that it will avoid teachers needing to self isolate. This is also incorrect, if exposed to a case then you still need to self isolate even if vaccinated, if you have symptom you still need to self isolate even if vaccinated. It may be a good idea to vaccinate teachers, but it will be to reassure teachers not for any special public health reason. (Teachers are alleged to be Labour voting in general, so a cynical interpretation is Labour are doing this to curry favour with an important section of voters.)

I don't disagree, we're in the early stages where it's all a bit ad-hoc, but that's always the way. At the beginning of any mass vaccination campaign the prevention of acute illness and reduction of pressure on the health service is at the forefront of most minds. But nobody involved in administering this should be thinking only about the early weeks or months, they should be thinking ahead to the summer when we have the prevalence and incidence down at least as low as last summer, and how to proceed with elimination at that stage. If you're going to Rome you may well concentrate on getting to the Channel Tunnel first, but you aren't planning to stop there.

I also agree about the need to continue to carry on with the social distancing and the masks and even the self-isolation if exposed, not just because vaccinated people might still be able to transmit this, but because no vaccine is protective for 100% of vaccinated individuals and there is a lot of virus out there. If you're one of the 10% or so who isn't fully protected, and you don't know you're not, you could come badly unstuck. The time to relax is when community transmission isn't happening. Banking on being in the 90% that are protected while there's still so much virus around ain't clever.

And every single politician in Britain is a raving, short-sighted, self-interested idiot. Especially about this. Every single one of them is looking to score points off their rivals rather than facilitate good handling of the epidemic, and this is lethal.
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Old 1st February 2021, 03:15 AM   #3394
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David Allan Greens reading of the published redacted EU AZ contract.

https://davidallengreen.com/2021/01/...actually-says/

Quote:
What this now-published agreement tells us, even more than before, is that AstraZeneca may have been wronged in the political row with the European Commission.
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Old 1st February 2021, 03:25 AM   #3395
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm very happy to report that I've been completely wrong about the UK vaccination programme, it looks to be picking up pace very well. Nearly 600,000 people were vaccinated yesterday. If that rate continues, it'll be less than 6 months for all adults to be vaccinated twice.
I may have jumped the gun a bit in my enthusiasm regarding yesterday's announcement.

Looking at the figures more carefully, the seven day average of around 370k vaccinations a day has been the more or less the same for the last week and a half.

This is still good news, but it pushes out the likely date for all adults to have received a vaccine if they want one considerably.
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Old 1st February 2021, 03:51 AM   #3396
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
David Allan Greens reading of the published redacted EU AZ contract.

https://davidallengreen.com/2021/01/...actually-says/
I read through that and I agree with what he writes but I think he missed the point. For me the disagreement is not about whether AZ had only a best reasonable efforts responsibility but whether they actually exerted their best reasonable efforts.

If AZ are not fulfilling their contract to the EU while providing vaccines to others then to my mind that's not making a best effort to fulfil the contract. And I think that's reinforced by the fact that they've managed to magic up more doses today.

IF they are contractually obligated to fulfil other requirements before the EU contract or at the same time as the EU contract then that seems to be have been something that needs to have been declared up front.

The different legal entities excuse I think would only be relevant if AZ could show that it would be unreasonably onerous to share resources across the entities and that this is something they would not routinely do. if they have been supplying the UK out of Europe and vice versa then I think that's dead in the water.

Of course at the end of the day AZ cannot sell vaccine that they don't have so if they have had production issues it isn't going to change how much vaccine there is available and someone is going to lose out.
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Old 1st February 2021, 04:21 AM   #3397
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I read through that and I agree with what he writes but I think he missed the point. For me the disagreement is not about whether AZ had only a best reasonable efforts responsibility but whether they actually exerted their best reasonable efforts.

If AZ are not fulfilling their contract to the EU while providing vaccines to others then to my mind that's not making a best effort to fulfil the contract. And I think that's reinforced by the fact that they've managed to magic up more doses today.

IF they are contractually obligated to fulfil other requirements before the EU contract or at the same time as the EU contract then that seems to be have been something that needs to have been declared up front.

The different legal entities excuse I think would only be relevant if AZ could show that it would be unreasonably onerous to share resources across the entities and that this is something they would not routinely do. if they have been supplying the UK out of Europe and vice versa then I think that's dead in the water.

Of course at the end of the day AZ cannot sell vaccine that they don't have so if they have had production issues it isn't going to change how much vaccine there is available and someone is going to lose out.
A note - legally the two highlighted phrases mean very different things. They are one of those little niggles that are very important and why it means you really need an experienced legal bod to check the wording of a contract.

“Best effort” is treated as meaning the greatest possible effort to achieve something or do something especially when this is difficult. A business would be expected to try everything to achieve the service level the contract is promising - to take it to absurd levels it means if the company didn’t sell the warehouse cat to have the money to get one extra vial out they haven’t made “best efforts”. “Reasonable effort” means what a reasonable person in a similar situation would do, and in common law systems that has ended up to mean “done something”, so sent a couple of emails to see if they can switch the production line up would be enough!
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Old 1st February 2021, 04:31 AM   #3398
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I may have jumped the gun a bit in my enthusiasm regarding yesterday's announcement.

Looking at the figures more carefully, the seven day average of around 370k vaccinations injections a day has been the more or less the same for the last week and a half.

This is still good news, but it pushes out the likely date for all adults to have received a vaccine if they want one considerably.
FTFY

Remember the vaccination is 2 doses.
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Old 1st February 2021, 04:36 AM   #3399
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
FTFY

Remember the vaccination is 2 doses.
Yes I know, my calculations were based on 90-100 million vaccinations.
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Old 1st February 2021, 05:55 AM   #3400
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
A note - legally the two highlighted phrases mean very different things. They are one of those little niggles that are very important and why it means you really need an experienced legal bod to check the wording of a contract.

“Best effort” is treated as meaning the greatest possible effort to achieve something or do something especially when this is difficult. A business would be expected to try everything to achieve the service level the contract is promising - to take it to absurd levels it means if the company didn’t sell the warehouse cat to have the money to get one extra vial out they haven’t made “best efforts”. “Reasonable effort” means what a reasonable person in a similar situation would do, and in common law systems that has ended up to mean “done something”, so sent a couple of emails to see if they can switch the production line up would be enough!
And confusingly what we are dealing with here is 'best reasonable efforts' which in a plain language reading to me means 'everything possible that is within the bounds of reason' at least it means going beyond 'done something'

Would it be reasonable to expect AZ not to be exporting vaccines from the EU while failing to deliver what they promised to the EU? I think that's reasonable.

Would it be reasonable to expect that AZ can divert UK production or production elsewhere to fulfil the EU contract? I think that's reasonable too it's what any big company would probably do.

Is it reasonable to expect that AZ fails to fulfil other contracts in order to fulfil the EU contract? The EU might think yes, AZ probably not. But the sticking point here is what AZ has promised other parties and whether they should have disclosed this to the EU.

That's why my sense on this is that AZ have overpromised and dropped the ball on production. They may not be on the hook legally as there may well be enough wiggle room in the wording to get them off but they also have to continue to do business with and in the EU so won't want to piss them off too much. And as I said elsewhere the pity is the energy expended on this pointless argument rather than getting the vaccines produced.
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