Merged: Bitcoin - Part 3

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by Solitaire

Ah, I see my error.

The little guys, the holders, don't bring down markets. They don't get
out until the market reaches bottom. So the big guys cause the declines.

And sure enough, I found a very short article on that.

Quote:

Bitcoin was down 8.8% to $36,308, at last check,

8.8% is a rock steady price by bitcoin standards.

Originally Posted by Solitaire

The big guys buy longs rather than shorts on tech stocks. And when those derivatives incur losses in a down market, they cover by selling their cryptocurrency holdings.

I don't have enough data to conclude that this is a major factor in crypto pricing. They would only have to sell assets if they had a margin call or if they had to buy back stock that they had previously shorted (and the price rose instead of falling).

[carlitos]

Terra (UST) spent may 8-9 losing its peg to the dollar. This is an algorithmic stable coin that is tied to $LUNA. Do Kwon (spelling?) , the founder, sunk a bunch of fake money to buy more fake money to prop it up to try and reach $1, but it looks like he only got it to 90 cents and it’s heading down again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/what...t-bitcoin.html

This thing is always supposed to equal $1.00

[Samson]

Originally Posted by carlitos

Terra (UST) spent may 8-9 losing its peg to the dollar. This is an algorithmic stable coin that is tied to $LUNA. Do Kwon (spelling?) , the founder, sunk a bunch of fake money to buy more fake money to prop it up to try and reach $1, but it looks like he only got it to 90 cents and it’s heading down again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/what...t-bitcoin.html

This thing is always supposed to equal $1.00

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...01fc9d9e11.jpg

Yes tide going out.
Buffet and Munger looking to get last laugh.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Remember that big crypto.com ad with Matt Damon?

Quote:

This bitcoin EFT fell even further during the rest of today. Now if you'd bought $1000 when Matt Damon's "Fortune Favors the Brave!" crypto ad premiered, you'd have $476.

https://twitter.com/schwarz/status/1523774909885087745

Fortune favors the brave!

[psionl0]

A price recovery usually weeds out the nay sayers (but a new crop will appear after the next bubble).

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Originally Posted by psionl0

A price recovery usually weeds out the nay sayers (but a new crop will appear after the next bubble).

Or to quote P.T. Barnum (purportedly), “There’s a sucker born every minute”.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

Or to quote P.T. Barnum (purportedly), “There’s a sucker born every minute”.

Sure, while the price is spiraling downwards, nay sayers will spring up from all over the place to say "I told you so". (A couple of years ago one poster wanted to have me boiled in oil for refusing to rule out the possibility that the bitcoin price could ever reach its 2017 peak).

You won't have anything to say during the next big price peak.

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Originally Posted by psionl0

Sure, while the price is spiraling downwards, nay sayers will spring up from all over the place to say "I told you so". (A couple of years ago one poster wanted to have me boiled in oil for refusing to rule out the possibility that the bitcoin price could ever reach its 2017 peak).

You won't have anything to say during the next big price peak.

I'll say it now: "A fool and his money are soon parted." Thomas Tusser, 1557.

At least in the case of the Tulip Bulb Bubble when it was all over you could eat the damn thing . . . or plant it for a pretty flower in the Spring.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

I'll say it now: "A fool and his money are soon parted." Thomas Tusser, 1557.

At least in the case of the Tulip Bulb Bubble when it was all over you could eat the damn thing . . . or plant it for a pretty flower in the Spring.

Sure. Say it now - just like the many posters before you have done. Like them, we wont see you when the price hits a new high.

[Suddenly]

Originally Posted by psionl0

Sure. Say it now - just like the many posters before you have done. Like them, we wont see you when the price hits a new high.

Oh, I fully expect it to hit a new high at some point. It is too easy a market to manipulate and to find bag holders you have to have a nice bag.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by psionl0

Sure. Say it now - just like the many posters before you have done. Like them, we wont see you when the price hits a new high.

I make no claims about Bitcoin having a permanent collapse. hell, the wild volatility is an important part of the get rich quick promise that draws in suckers and predators alike. The fortune destroying lows are what make the peaks so profitable.

My point has always been that this is, at best, a casino, but more often a hunting ground for the well-financed to get richer off suckers through a variety of schemes.

[SuburbanTurkey]

I wonder how many people are going to kill themselves as a result of being ruined by the current crash.

The terraluna subreddit has the suicide hotlines pinned as their top post.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

I wonder how many people are going to kill themselves as a result of being ruined by the current crash.

The terraluna subreddit has the suicide hotlines pinned as their top post.

If the declines continue to the classic 80% of history, (I note Netflix is down 80% as an aside) there must be overwhelming depression with hodlers on this sequence. I think the last bull run served to persuade many that cryptos really are valid.
Some may doubt it. There have been 5 big waves from inception, so the next ten years may be doldrums.

[portlandatheist]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

Remember that big crypto.com ad with Matt Damon?



https://twitter.com/schwarz/status/1523774909885087745

Fortune favors the brave!

It really got under my skin that Matt Damon pushed this primarily because he tries to market himself as an environmentalist. Crypto is a zero-sum endeavor, a poor choice for an investor and a poor choice for an environmentalist.

[carlitos]

Something that will affect BTC is starting to slip right now.

The crooks at Bitfinex / Tether will probably find duct tape and band-aids for today, but Tether can't last forever. Janet Yellen already called them out a couple of times in the past few days.

[Solitaire]

Let's not forget the network effects into other cryptocurrencies.

Quote:

MicroStrategy Extends Week-Long Decline by Matthew Fox

MicroStrategy stock extended its week-long decline to 53% on Wednesday
as bitcoin continued to fall. Bitcoin dipped below $30,700, which is the
average price MicroStrategy paid for its stash of 129,000 bitcoin. MicroStrategy
could get margin called and be forced to sell some of its bitcoin if the crypto
drops to $21,000.

But don't worry about Michael Saylor, he'll do fine.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by Solitaire

Let's not forget the network effects into other cryptocurrencies.





But don't worry about Michael Saylor, he'll do fine.

Just curious, whose 4 billion is in the stash?

[Gord_in_Toronto]

This does not sound good:

Coinbase earnings were bad. Worse still, the crypto exchange is now warning that bankruptcy could wipe out user funds

https://fortune.com/2022/05/11/coinb...arnings-stock/

Quote:

Coinbase said in its earnings report Tuesday that it holds $256 billion in both fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies on behalf of its customers. Yet the exchange noted that in the event it ever declared bankruptcy, “the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings.” Coinbase users would become “general unsecured creditors,” meaning they have no right to claim any specific property from the exchange in proceedings. Their funds would become inaccessible.

I guess if this happens we will find out exactly what a unit of crypto is actually "worth". Maybe they can be traded for plugged nickels?

[carlitos]

Lol. ARKK is bullish.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

This does not sound good:

Coinbase earnings were bad. Worse still, the crypto exchange is now warning that bankruptcy could wipe out user funds

https://fortune.com/2022/05/11/coinb...arnings-stock/

I guess if this happens we will find out exactly what a unit of crypto is actually "worth". Maybe they can be traded for plugged nickels?

I know the entire thread is too long for you to go through but you are making the same remarks that hundreds have made before you going back more than 12 years.

Like them, you are trying to conflate crypto exchanges with cryptos themselves.

[BillC]

Terra is continuing to fall, losing 22% of its value per hour, which gives it a half-life of less than 3 hours.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

This does not sound good:

Coinbase earnings were bad. Worse still, the crypto exchange is now warning that bankruptcy could wipe out user funds

https://fortune.com/2022/05/11/coinb...arnings-stock/



I guess if this happens we will find out exactly what a unit of crypto is actually "worth". Maybe they can be traded for plugged nickels?

Sounds like a starter pistol for a run on the bank. Anyone reading that should be getting their coins out of Coinbase and into a another exchange or a cold wallet that won't get liquidated in a bankruptcy. At least anything they aren't actively trading shouldn't be stored there.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by psionl0

I know the entire thread is too long for you to go through but you are making the same remarks that hundreds have made before you going back more than 12 years.

Like them, you are trying to conflate crypto exchanges with cryptos themselves.

Still .. crypto exchange going bankrupt ? How ? I mean of course, you can just take the money and run ..

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by BillC

Terra is continuing to fall, losing 22% of its value per hour, which gives it a half-life of less than 3 hours.

Bitconeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeect!

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Originally Posted by psionl0

I know the entire thread is too long for you to go through but you are making the same remarks that hundreds have made before you going back more than 12 years.

Like them, you are trying to conflate crypto exchanges with cryptos themselves.

I'm not sure when/if I last posted in this thread but I have been following it since it began. Though, admittedly, in a rather desultory way. But without an exchange how do you convert the currency into something useful in the real world? Does the expression, "House of Cards", have any resonance with you?

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

I'm not sure when/if I last posted in this thread but I have been following it since it began. Though, admittedly, in a rather desultory way. But without an exchange how do you convert the currency into something useful in the real world? Does the expression, "House of Cards", have any resonance with you?

No no no, you have to discuss crypto in some abstract way derived from first principles, not by actually describing how it exists in real life.

The fact that crypto as it exists is a raging dumpster fire has nothing to do with crypto, don't you see?

[EaglePuncher]

Originally Posted by psionl0

I know the entire thread is too long for you to go through but you are making the same remarks that hundreds have made before you going back more than 12 years.

Like them, you are trying to conflate crypto exchanges with cryptos themselves.

Bitcoin is still toooooooootally viable guys............................guys?

[carlitos]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Still .. crypto exchange going bankrupt ? How ? I mean of course, you can just take the money and run ..

Sure you can take your money, just not during "scheduled maintenance" that happened while Tether's peg went back up 2 cents to $1USD.

Quote:

Binance.US Will Perform Scheduled Maintenance for 17 Networks & Temporarily Suspend Deposits & Withdrawals

1 hour ago Updated
Follow
Binance.US will perform scheduled wallet maintenance on multiple networks starting on May 12, 2022 from approximately 3:30 a.m. to 5:30 a.m. EDT. The scheduled maintenance will take approximately two hours to complete, though this duration is subject to change.

Please note:

Deposits & withdrawals on affected networks will be temporarily suspended starting on May 12, 2022 at 3 a.m. EDT. Trading will remain available and unaffected by the scheduled maintenance.

Deposits & withdrawals will be reopened after the maintenance is completed and wallet operations are deemed to be stable. No further announcement will be issued.

If depositing crypto, please take into account the time it takes for deposits to clear, to ensure all transactions are confirmed before deposits are temporarily suspended.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

I'm not sure when/if I last posted in this thread but I have been following it since it began. Though, admittedly, in a rather desultory way. But without an exchange how do you convert the currency into something useful in the real world? Does the expression, "House of Cards", have any resonance with you?

If you are referring to buying and selling bitcoin then an exchange is the most convenient way to do it but there is a difference between storing bitcoins in your own wallet and leaving it in the exchange. Ditto for any money exchanged for bitcoin.

[Suddenly]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

I'm not sure when/if I last posted in this thread but I have been following it since it began. Though, admittedly, in a rather desultory way. But without an exchange how do you convert the currency into something useful in the real world? Does the expression, "House of Cards", have any resonance with you?

You can sell it to another person directly, or trade it for goods and services. Just like any other means of exchange. Exchanges aren't that meaningful w/r/t it's use as a currency.

A lack of exchanges would, however, cripple bitcoin as a speculative investment because it relies on more and more people putting in more and more useful currency and without exchanges making that easy people just aren't going to use it.

[Gord_in_Toronto]

As long as the crypto coin owners trade among themselves they may speculate as much as they wish. However, if, after I have accumulated the equivalent of $1,000,000 in my ethereal coin wallet and want to buy a house, I have to either convert it to "real" money or find someone who will accept it as payment for a house. If he does, since the "value" the next day may just as well be $800,000 as $1,200,000, the seller will have joined the crowd of speculators. Volatility is the killer. Someone a bit better rooted in reality will want real, cold, hard cash. I'll have to find an exchange that will do this conversion. If there are any that have not gone bankrupt due to a run on them.

YMMV

[Babbylonian]

Used electricity has never been worth nothing.

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Oh. Ho. This can't be good!

A 'short attack' caused UST de-peg, Luna's 97% price collapse, so who was responsible?

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-05-1...sponsible.html

Quote:

A short attack triggered Terra's LUNA to crash more than 97 percent over the past few days. This caused a corresponding fall in the price of UST, which fell to 2 cents early Thursday.

Too late to sell? Er . . . dump and take my loses?

Hmm. May be last week.

Quote:

Reflecting on the lessons for crypto investors, AngSiy said, "[To] see [LUNA and UST] taken down in two days, right, it just has to make you step back and reevaluate what's actually safe in cryptocurrency. Is the whole thing a giant startup with an incredible risk profile, normally reserved to venture capitalists?"

Nice live graph here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terra-luna/ and the comments are interesting/amusing.

[carlitos]

Originally Posted by carlitos

Sure you can take your money, just not during "scheduled maintenance" that happened while Tether's peg went back up 2 cents to $1USD.

Not your keys, not your coin.

[Captain_Swoop]

It's all a scam.

[novaphile]

Originally Posted by gnome

Hodlor

Well done gnome!

I heard that in Hodor's voice, I hope that was your intention.

The only thing that saved my keyboard was the lack of coffee in my mouth at that instant.

[Gord_in_Toronto]

An analysis from one of Canada's blockchain gurus.

Shouldn’t stablecoins be stable? What’s behind TerraUSD’s collapse

https://globalnews.ca/news/8830474/s...ncy-explained/

Quote:

“In many respects, the collapse of UST is basically an old-fashioned bank run for the digital currency era, which makes it kind of fascinating that we’re replaying some of the kinds of crises that we’ve had in the traditional analog financial world in the digital world,” he says.

and

Quote:

But he also says the coin’s collapse could be a reflection of what happens to unproven assets when market conditions worsen, something he turns to a popular quote from investing magnate Warren Buffett to describe: “When the tide goes out, you see who’s swimming naked.”

[BillC]

Originally Posted by Babbylonian

Used electricity has never been worth nothing.

It would be even more apt if coin mining consumed vars.

[carlitos]

On the bright side, by the time many of you read this there will be trillions of new $LUNA coins freshly minted. Get a digital wheelbarrow and scoop some up, cheap.

ETA - never mind, Binance suspended trading.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

As long as the crypto coin owners trade among themselves they may speculate as much as they wish. However, if, after I have accumulated the equivalent of $1,000,000 in my ethereal coin wallet and want to buy a house, I have to either convert it to "real" money or find someone who will accept it as payment for a house. If he does, since the "value" the next day may just as well be $800,000 as $1,200,000, the seller will have joined the crowd of speculators. Volatility is the killer. Someone a bit better rooted in reality will want real, cold, hard cash. I'll have to find an exchange that will do this conversion. If there are any that have not gone bankrupt due to a run on them.

YMMV

If you ever get the time, go through the old bitcoin threads. These issues have been discussed many times. The short answer is the bitcoin is not useful as an everyday currency because of its price volatility and also because of a hard limit of only a few thousand transactions per block. The proof-of-work algorithm is also a big no no (since it is basically an electricity burning competition).

Bitcoin is basically useful only for hodling or transferring vast sums of wealth around the world rapidly and without authoritarian interference.