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Tags | abortion laws , political predictions , prediction thread , Roe v. Wade |
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View Poll Results: When will Roe v Wade be overturned | ![]() |
Before 31 December 2020 |
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20 | 19.61% |
Before 31 December 2022 |
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20 | 19.61% |
Before 31 December 2024 |
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9 | 8.82% |
SCOTUS will not pick a case up |
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16 | 15.69% |
SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn |
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37 | 36.27% |
Voters: 102. You may not vote on this poll |
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#361 |
No Punting
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 4,760
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#362 |
King of Kings
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: USA
Posts: 5,029
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“Truth does not depend upon you to believe it.” - C.D. Hulen |
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#363 |
No Punting
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 4,760
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As a legal matter, the idea that the conservatives having their 50 year plan to stack the the courts with reliable ideological conservative judges come to fruition and not overturn Roe seems awfully optimistic.
I mean, allowing for the fact that Planned Parenthood v. Casey already functionally overturned Roe, no matter how the opinion was framed, and that they certainly don't need to officially state they are overturning Roe to make it a dead letter via formalistic concern trolling over the safety of a procedure which is far less dangerous to the woman than childbirth.... Still, that is a scalp they are going to get sooner or later. With Roberts in charge it would probably be a little more nuanced. The only thing that will stop a repeal in the near future is the "liberal" wing voting along with probably Kavanaugh for a Roberts opinion that further restricts the right to abortion without fully overturning Roe, just laying further groundwork to reverse Roe in the future. |
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#364 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 15,141
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I'm not convinced that an outright reversal of Roe is in the offering, though it certainly isn't beyond the pale with the current composition of the court.
Seems more likely that Roe will be gutted of most of its impact without an outright reversal. I would expect further decisions like Casey that chip away at the protections provided by Roe, making it easier for right wing states to de-facto criminalize abortion while still claiming that the rights afforded in Roe are still respected. A token nod to "precedent", while completely undermining the actual impact of the law seems more like Robert's style than a frontal assault. Then again, who knows. Seems more and more like Breyer is choosing to repeat RBG's foolishness and die on the court rather than retire strategically, so an 8-2 court might be in our near future. Who knows what bat-**** crazy rulings might be pushed through in such a court. |
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#365 |
No Punting
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 4,760
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The vast majority of people have no idea how screwed we are as it is. This court even before RBG mistook herself for a highlander was doing some absurd work (corporations having religious freedom), just that the people who report on these things tend to be those that have a stake in the legitimacy of the court so it all gets downplayed.
(If it gets to 7-2 that means a GOP president and given things as they are the court might be the least of our worries.) But yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a few more cases limiting the right to abortion before it gets whacked, but I don't think that is the probability. The assumption they won't relies on the idea that the court is either concerned with legitimacy and/or worried about blowback from an energized Democratic Party, but these guys don't care much about the first and the Democrats are continuously proving that they are totally incompetent in the face of this sort of aggression. |
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#366 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 40,326
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Australian law probably has little to no influence on US law, but FWIW:
"Protesting outside abortion clinics will no longer be allowed in any Australian jurisdiction, after laws to introduce safe access zones in Western Australia passed State Parliament." "The Public Health Amendment (Safe Access Zones) Bill 2021 passed the Labor-dominated Legislative Council today. "With WA the last state to legislate safe access zones, the bill's passage means women in every state and territory are now protected against intimidation when accessing abortion services." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...bill/100366664 |
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#367 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,745
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Yay for Aussie!
They're not allowed to protest in NZ either. At least, if I see them, they aren't. The law may differ. |
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#368 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 809
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Why can't abortions be performed as ordinary in-patient procedures at regular hospitals anyway? It seems the mere existence of "abortion clinics" is unnecessarily stigmatising in the first place.
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#369 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 12,466
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That would send the cost through the roof and makes abortion less accessible. Rarely would someone need to be an in-patient at a hospital. Something like half of first-trimester abortions are medical abortions, meaning a woman takes a combination of medications at home that end the pregnancy. In addition, a doctor would need admitting privileges at a hospital, which is IMO an unnecessary hurdle. Some states try this though.
It's only stigmatizing if people choose to attach a stigma to it, which is big in the US, not so much the rest of the modern world. Why add a bunch of roadblocks to a legal medical procedure? |
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#370 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 809
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Duh, I meant to say "outpatient" in the first place.
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"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever." -- George Orwell |
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#371 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 12,466
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There could be a euphemism employed I suppose, but what's the point? If you need a surgical abortion, you don't go to a place that specializes in cataract repair. Everybody would know which centers performed abortions and they'd call them an "abortion clinics" anyway.
IMO. |
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#372 |
Cowardly Lurking in the Shadows of Greatness
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Arizona
Posts: 5,401
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Maybe though, they'd stop calling every Planned Parenthood clinic a 'abortion clinic', even the ones that have never performed a single abortion?
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#373 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 26,937
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Texas Law That Bans Abortion Before Many Women Know They're Pregnant Takes Effect
Quote:
Crazy stuff, but it may finally be upon us for real. |
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#374 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 15,141
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This is RBG's legacy. All the things she worked for over a long life of advocacy are being wiped out because she refused to play the game.
Breyer seems dead set on repeating her error. It's depressing how bad the liberals are at this. |
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#375 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,697
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So much for Roe v. Wade not being in danger of being overturned any time soon.
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#376 |
Scholar
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 67
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I count this as an overruling of Roe vs. Wade, de facto if not de jure. It’s a thoroughly awful law that turns a portion of the population into money-grubbing snitches, and another portion into subjects of harassment who are not afforded what I would consider due process of law. I would seriously rather have Roe vs. Wade de jure overturned and have criminal laws against abortion in which the person accused has full due process rights. For the poll, the people who said before 31 December 2022 were right.
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#377 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 39,378
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//Slight out context hijack//
Should this discussion stay here or in the Roe V Wade thread in Politics? I think (personal opinion only) if we keep both going it's just going to be the same arguments in both threads. |
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#378 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 39,378
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//Glimmer of hope//
SCOTUS is already scheduled to rule on a 15 week abortion ban soon. Maybe they just aren't ruling on this one because they figure they can defacto rule on both of them. *I know, not likely, let me hope.* |
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#379 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
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#380 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 54,897
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#381 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 39,378
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"If everyone in the room says water is wet and I say it's dry that makes me smart because at least I'm thinking for myself!" - The Proudly Wrong. |
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#382 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 15,141
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Maybe if Breyer dies and another conservative ghoul gets his seat.
Much more likely that Roe is incrementally defanged, while never actually being overturned. By letter, it will still be law. In spirit, dead as disco. It's pretty much on life support in conservative states already. Just a couple more nudges and it's over. |
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#383 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 52,382
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#384 |
Rarely prone to hissy-fits
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: The Wettest Desert on Earth
Posts: 17,826
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I never thought I'd be watching my rights get stripped away on a daily basis. I'm just so angry at all of the politicians right now.
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#385 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,745
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Looks like the poll option of before 31/12/22 wins, because it's now been overturned in Texas, and similarly
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#386 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,697
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#387 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 15,141
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Quote:
A 5-4 vote. No single person had more power to stop this from happening that RBG. Her refusal to secure her seat for another liberal justice is going to doom a generation, if not more, to right wing rule. What an absolute putz. ETA: Maybe I'm wrong. RBG: total moron, or crypto-accelerationist? |
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#388 |
In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 49,387
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#389 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 15,141
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Quote:
How bad do things have to get before liberals stop saying braindead things like this? Any judge who ever says something like this should be automatically disqualified for further advancement. The stakes are simply too high for clueless rubes to have lifetime appointment. |
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#390 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 31,745
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And now that it's officially sanctioned, it's going to happen in a lot more states very quickly, so no, not the whole USA, but a very large geographical majority.
Excuse me while I go track people who pooh-poohed the idea that USA is becoming a de facto stone age theocracy... Neither, just human. She fell into the trap of thinking Hillary was going to win and she would be replaced by a soul daughter. |
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#391 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 32,778
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Слава Україні! **** Putin! |
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#392 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 32,778
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#393 |
Species traitor
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 3,097
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There's no indication that this is true. According to RBG, her reasons for not retiring were that she was more liberal than any nominee that could get through the approval process. She also made comments about following the Rehnquist model--ie, serving until she dropped dead. I'm sure she would have preferred to die during a Clinton administration, but then she probably would have preferred not to die at all.
I think there's just a tendency for Very Important People to regard themselves as irreplaceable. The world just gets worse when they aren't around anymore, so stick around as long as possible. It doesn't occur to them to mitigate the harm that comes with the inevitable. Anyway, this is all a very stupid way to run things. |
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#394 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,867
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#395 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 19,397
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#396 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 58,550
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No. That's not how federal law and supreme court rulings work in the US. The only way to satisfy the condition, Roe v Wade is overturned, is if the supreme court issues a new ruling that overturns it. What Texas has done is something else. Texas is attempting to work around the restrictions placed on them by Roe v Wade, which is still very much in effect in Texas.
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#397 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21,203
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#398 |
Rarely prone to hissy-fits
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: The Wettest Desert on Earth
Posts: 17,826
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#399 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 39,378
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Because it's not about RBG at all anymore but his, at this point utterly insane, massive hatred of mainstream, centrist Democrats and his idea that they can do nothing right and his need to remind us he thinks this (and is therefore more pure and better than us) every chance he gets.
He's not a tainted Democrat like the rest of us but a pure, evolved Progressive and he will make damn sure we don't forget it. |
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"If everyone in the room says water is wet and I say it's dry that makes me smart because at least I'm thinking for myself!" - The Proudly Wrong. |
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#400 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 13,487
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