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Tags Russia issues , Russia-Ukraine relations , Russia-Ukraine war , Ukraine issues , vladimir putin , Volodymyr Zelenskiy

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Old 1st April 2022, 10:25 AM   #161
crescent
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
....do with not delivering value for money to serving members.
Military procurement often seems to be more of a socialist job corps kind of thing than an actual national defense kind of thing.
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Old 1st April 2022, 10:27 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Ultimately what keeps tanks from being obsolete is the high cost of participation at that level.

Sure, in theory a true peer, with all the same tech and all the same logistical investment and all the same level of training and professionalism could make your tanks very limited in value on the battlefield. And vice-versa!

But no two armies are ever actually that equally matched. Russia and Ukraine have similar economies, similar amounts of corruption, similar doctrines, and similar tech levels. But one side is performing much better, and the other much worse, than expected. Not because tanks are obsolete, but because when both sides have the same tech level, the side with the better troops and better logistics prevails.

Just riffing on this. Dismounted infantry have been a threat to tanks since at least WW2. Especially in confined areas and country with lots of cover.

But the dismounted infantry severely limit the speed of the tanks if they are dismounted. And however vulnerable tanks are, infantry fighting vehicles are far more so.

Even in hypothetical peer situations, the mix in key points is likely to be different.
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Old 1st April 2022, 10:29 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
God, you know nothing about military strategy.
By your philosophy the US should not have conducted offesnive actions after Pearl Harbor.
And the UK should not have condcuted offensive warfare against Germany, either.
COme on guy, you should know better then that.
Ukraine would be 100% within it rights attacking Russian military tactics. on it;s own soil if that is what happened
Yes it's absolutely within its rights to strike back at Russia in whatever way it chooses.

So far Ukraine has played a blinder worldwide with its propaganda/ information strategy. Hundreds of dead Russian civilians could blot it's copybook. Sure Russia could simply run a false flag but if there really is a Ukrainian attack then it makes their disinformation job easier.
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Old 1st April 2022, 10:30 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post

"Tanks are obsolete!" made a lot more sense back when we still thought the Russians were near-peers to modern tank-having armies, in terms of tech, logistics, and troop quality. But now, in March 2022, it's pretty obvious that tanks are still quite valuable against paper tiger modern armies.
I think you are right, but I'm not sure we have seen this yet. What we have seen is that unsupported tanks without the ability to shoot down incoming missiles are very vulnerable.
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Old 1st April 2022, 11:04 AM   #165
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It occurs to me that the decision to invest the Chernobyl area as a strategic position is a classic bit of Cold War doctrine. Something about, NATO will use nukes in the Fulda Gap to slow our advance, and our plan is to just fight through the contamination because that's what we have to do. Same thing here. Chernobyl is a good place to position troops in support of the siege of Kiev, other than the contamination. So we'll just fight through the contamination.
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Old 1st April 2022, 11:09 AM   #166
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes it's absolutely within its rights to strike back at Russia in whatever way it chooses.

So far Ukraine has played a blinder worldwide with its propaganda/ information strategy. Hundreds of dead Russian civilians could blot it's copybook. Sure Russia could simply run a false flag but if there really is a Ukrainian attack then it makes their disinformation job easier.
I think Ukrkanina will avoid Civilian targets in Russia, but hit military targets hard.
I think most people will cheer Ukraine sriking back.
ANyway, you don't win wars on defense alone.
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Old 1st April 2022, 11:11 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
Defence spending is one of the areas where my opinions seem to diverge somewhat from my more progressive family and friends. I'm often critical of the military-industrial complex, but it has more to do with not delivering value for money to serving members.
I'd also add questionable allocations of funds to that, personally. There are things that would be useful to focus a lot more on and things that are far more show than substance. To use a tank example from a few year ago that's likely played into recent conversations - Trump was making a big deal about spending a lot more on tanks, generals were saying that they just didn't really need more tanks and pointing out other areas where that money would be dramatically more useful. There's also a question of how much in the way of unused funds the military is hiding and, generally speaking, the need for much better actual accountability for the usage of the money.
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Old 1st April 2022, 01:19 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
I'd also add questionable allocations of funds to that, personally. There are things that would be useful to focus a lot more on and things that are far more show than substance. To use a tank example from a few year ago that's likely played into recent conversations - Trump was making a big deal about spending a lot more on tanks, generals were saying that they just didn't really need more tanks and pointing out other areas where that money would be dramatically more useful. There's also a question of how much in the way of unused funds the military is hiding and, generally speaking, the need for much better actual accountability for the usage of the money.
Even before the Trump era, Congress repeatedly allocated funds to buy tanks the Army didn't want. And in 2020 the Marines said they wanted to get rid of their tanks.
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Old 1st April 2022, 02:08 PM   #169
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Russia has ordered its universities to move all their Youtube content onto Russian social media platform VK Video and RuTube, the Russian video platform.
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/st...%7Ctwcon%5Es1_

I'm expecting Russia to just shut itself off from the rest of the internet sooner or later. You might call this the "anti-fascist protection firewall".
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Old 1st April 2022, 02:23 PM   #170
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The public’s endorsement of the war lacks the patriotic groundswell that greeted the annexation of Crimea in 2014. But polls released this week by Russia’s most respected independent pollster, Levada, showed Mr. Putin’s approval rating hitting 83 percent, up from 69 percent in January. Eighty-one percent said they supported the war, describing the need to protect Russian speakers as its primary justification.

Analysts cautioned that as the economic pain wrought by sanctions deepens in the coming months, the public mood could shift yet again. Some also argued that polls in wartime have limited significance, with many Russians fearful of voicing dissent, or even their true opinion, to a stranger at a time when new censorship laws are punishing any deviation from the Kremlin narrative with as much as 15 years in prison.

But even accounting for that effect, Denis Volkov, Levada’s director, said his group’s surveys showed that many Russians had adopted the belief that a besieged Russia had to rally around its leader.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/w...t-ukraine.html

Note that the NYT apparently can't make itself unequivocally state that the vast majority of Russians support the war, describing a 81% positive polling rate as merely "many". There seems to be a strong urge among some people to try and excuse Russian peoples support of their leader and the war he has started and to delegitimize their opinions as somehow less authentic or real than those who support it (who are readily emphasized, for that matter).

"Halt! Don't brush everyone under the same comb! Liberal cosmopolitan middle-class intellectuals in St. Petersburg and Moscow are still against it! We must not dislike the Russians just because they surrender their freedom to a tyrannical warmonger dictator and follow his lead!"
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Old 1st April 2022, 02:42 PM   #171
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New Russian statement on the Fuel Depot Attack..and it wins the "You got to be kidding" award of the week:

"“I’d like to stress that this facility is used to supply fuel only to civilian transport vehicles. The oil terminal has no relation to the Russian armed forces,” he said."

What total BS.Good for a laugh though.
Only the Putin fanboys and total idiots will buy that crap.
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Old 1st April 2022, 02:43 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/st...%7Ctwcon%5Es1_

I'm expecting Russia to just shut itself off from the rest of the internet sooner or later. You might call this the "anti-fascist protection firewall".
It has been clear Putin wants to isolate Russia just like in the good old days of the USSR.
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Old 1st April 2022, 02:46 PM   #173
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Putin is welcome to his RubeTube.
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Old 1st April 2022, 03:00 PM   #174
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COmparasion between the oil depot strike and the Doolittle raid in World War 2.
A movie called "Thirty Seconds Over Belgorod" perhaps?
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Old 1st April 2022, 03:34 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/w...t-ukraine.html

Note that the NYT apparently can't make itself unequivocally state that the vast majority of Russians support the war, describing a 81% positive polling rate as merely "many". There seems to be a strong urge among some people to try and excuse Russian peoples support of their leader and the war he has started and to delegitimize their opinions as somehow less authentic or real than those who support it (who are readily emphasized, for that matter).

"Halt! Don't brush everyone under the same comb! Liberal cosmopolitan middle-class intellectuals in St. Petersburg and Moscow are still against it! We must not dislike the Russians just because they surrender their freedom to a tyrannical warmonger dictator and follow his lead!"
If you lived in Russia and some stranger called you on the phone would you tell them you opposed Putin or his policies?

While it's clear that Putin is popular, mostly due to the fact the Russian people still rely on state run TV as their primary source of information polling itself simply can't tell you how popular because even if you oppose him, you are going to lie about it if anyone asks you.
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Old 1st April 2022, 03:51 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
If you lived in Russia and some stranger called you on the phone would you tell them you opposed Putin or his policies?

While it's clear that Putin is popular, mostly due to the fact the Russian people still rely on state run TV as their primary source of information polling itself simply can't tell you how popular because even if you oppose him, you are going to lie about it if anyone asks you.
Yea - poll in Russia is like an election in Russia. Percentages are about the same.
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Old 1st April 2022, 03:59 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
New Russian statement on the Fuel Depot Attack..and it wins the "You got to be kidding" award of the week:

"“I’d like to stress that this facility is used to supply fuel only to civilian transport vehicles. The oil terminal has no relation to the Russian armed forces,” he said."

What total BS.Good for a laugh though.
Only the Putin fanboys and total idiots will buy that crap.
April Fool’s Day statement.
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Old 1st April 2022, 04:02 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
April Fool’s Day statement.
I wondered when I first read it if this story was not an April's Fools day joke, but it is for real........
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Old 1st April 2022, 04:15 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Military procurement often seems to be more of a socialist job corps kind of thing than an actual national defense kind of thing.
Welfare for giant corporations and billionaires would be closer to the mark.
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Old 1st April 2022, 05:57 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Military procurement often seems to be more of a socialist job corps kind of thing than an actual national defense kind of thing.
I can't think of anything farther from the truth. It is crony capitalism at its worst.

But I'm not talking about all military procurement.
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Old 1st April 2022, 06:10 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
If you lived in Russia and some stranger called you on the phone would you tell them you opposed Putin or his policies?
I'm sorry but the organization in question is not "some stranger", they are a serious independent polling agency. They don't just call people at random and ask them "do you support Putin?!?". They have readily and openly published polls that both are in agreement with state controlled agencies and polls that disagree. Quite often their polls show that the average Russian is often quite supportive of the policies Putin have eventually pursued. One of the Reasons Putin is still in power is that he has been very successful in not antagonizing the Russian people.

Quote:
While it's clear that Putin is popular, mostly due to the fact the Russian people still rely on state run TV as their primary source of information polling itself simply can't tell you how popular because even if you oppose him, you are going to lie about it if anyone asks you.
Yeah because they otherwise get polonium poisoning... actually they don't and people continue to be able to voice their disapproval of Putin without being instantly murdered. Plenty of friends and associates of western journalists criticize Putin and the war without the gestapo taking them away the next day. It's just that these people represent an utterly marginal portion of the population.
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Old 1st April 2022, 07:29 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
I'm sorry but the organization in question is not "some stranger", they are a serious independent polling agency. They don't just call people at random and ask them "do you support Putin?!?". They have readily and openly published polls that both are in agreement with state controlled agencies and polls that disagree. Quite often their polls show that the average Russian is often quite supportive of the policies Putin have eventually pursued. One of the Reasons Putin is still in power is that he has been very successful in not antagonizing the Russian people.

Yeah because they otherwise get polonium poisoning... actually they don't and people continue to be able to voice their disapproval of Putin without being instantly murdered. Plenty of friends and associates of western journalists criticize Putin and the war without the gestapo taking them away the next day. It's just that these people represent an utterly marginal portion of the population.
Actually it is a stranger. That is the only way polling can be done reputably.
There is no way to trust this.

Everything in Russia has changed.
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Old 1st April 2022, 10:59 PM   #183
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I don't know how accurate the polls are, but I regularly read Russian-language social media, forums, discussion groups etc. and I can testify that the overwhelming majority of people (including many people I know personally) are in support of war. And those are the people who regularly use the internet. I am terrified even to think of those who don't.
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Old 1st April 2022, 11:15 PM   #184
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Do people support Putin? Unfortunately, yes. Often, it is demonstrated by silence. For example, former Finnish President, Tarja Halonen, who is known as 'Hard Left' was so strangely mute, a newspaper editor called her out on it. She regrets the war in Ukraine - of course she does - but is still coming out as being on the fence. For example, just yesterday or the day before she strongly upset the Estonians when she claimed that the Baltic States only joined NATO because they had been so 'collectively'dependent' on the former USSR defence forces, whereas Finland (and Sweden by extension) were fiercely independent and capable of its own defences. That caused a backlash from the Estonian PM and a lot of anger.

In addition, the Left Alliance party (Vasemmisto) who has a minister in the SDP coalition government in the form of Li Andersson, Education Minister, has sent an open letter stating it is against NATO membership.

Halonen is of the generation old enough to have had parents who directly experienced the bitter and bloody Civil War of 1918 when the revolutionary communist workers battled against anti-communists, literally to the death, and for decades noone really spoke about it. In short, the SDP, is associated with the Social Democrats of the Rosa Luxemburg and East German style radical socialism - strong workers rights - and have a natural affinity with the former USSR left. In addition, having fought two [more] wars against USSR/Russia, Finland was keen to foster a cordial good neighbourly relationship with the savage bear next door. Understandably. This gave rise to the rather derogatory term 'finlandization' meaning being neutral because you are scared and it is self-protection.

In effect, having spent eighty years developing 'friendship' and glasnost and perestroika with Russia, ISTM that the Finnish left and Tarja Halonen, are experiencing cognitive dissonance. Having spent eighty years being 'friendly' with a corrupt regime, and assuming peace as the price of neighbourliness, Halonen and the left are having trouble realising that when Zakhorava uttered the threat to Finland and Sweden they must not join NATO or face the consequences, that has always been the dysfunctional imbalance in the relationship and they resist the idea that they have been betrayed by what they thought was a good friend. Even after the Winter War and the Continuation War when over 32,000 and 64,000 Finns fell, respectively (USSR estimates >500,000 dead), the Communist Party in Finland was huge, something like 25% of the election votes, nonetheless, until about thirty years ago, when it has declined considerably.

So now for the first time a sizeable majority of the population are eager to join NATO asap but it is apparent looking at Halonen and the Baltic States row, that there is still quite a lot of resistance to this idea. Sweden PM Magdalena Andersson did state Sweden did not intend to join just yet. OTOH reports claim that as close partners of NATO, taking part in its exercises and attending NATO conferences, Sweden and Finland look to be joining NATO soon. With Russia withdrawing from Kyiv and from the western parts of Ukraine, this might need to be quick, before Russia has a chance to redeploy and recruit the next round of several hundred thousand conscripts. It might start clicking its heels, with Putin looking over at the 'unfriendly' countries and saying, 'Who's next?!'

We have been warned.
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Old 1st April 2022, 11:22 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Seems from a number of sources that Russian forces are retreating completely from the Kyiv area. Ukrainian soldiers have been moving into those areas such as Irpin, Bucha, Hostomel. I assume the Chernobyl evacuation was also tied to that rather than a bout of radiation sickness.

Of course, this is great from the Ukrainian perspective, but some are cautioning that it could be a redeploying of troops from there to the Eastern front.

I know that some had been claiming that the Kyiv push was a feint BUT even if that is the case, surely there is little advantage to Russian troops as Ukraine can also reploy its forces and have more room to get supplies in.

P.S don't take anything I say too seriously. I know little about military affairs.
A feint only makes sense if: A) Russia has a large, uncommitted force with which to attack from an unexpected quarter, and/or B) There is a reachable, underdefended high-value target in such a quarter. I'm not sure either condition holds.

The 'feint' theory sounds like pro-Russia apologists saying: "Putin totally *meant* to do that...."
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Old 1st April 2022, 11:42 PM   #186
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To poke elsewhere...

Quote:
EXCLUSIVE: China staged a huge cyberattack on Ukraine’s military and nuclear facilities in the build-up to Russia’s invasion, according to intelligence memos obtained by The Times
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Old 2nd April 2022, 02:56 AM   #187
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According to Yahoo news

Quote:
A U.S. official confirmed to CBS News senior national security correspondent David Martin that Ukrainian helicopters did carry out the strike, and anther one a couple days earlier against an ammunition depot in the same area.
Assuming this is true, presumably the ammunition depot was also 100% for civilian use!
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Old 2nd April 2022, 03:00 AM   #188
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In another forum https://scrutable.science/viewtopic....118369#p118353

EACLucifer points out that the denial is mocking the Russian claims from their annexation of the Crimea.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 04:10 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by Meridian View Post
According to Yahoo news



Assuming this is true, presumably the ammunition depot was also 100% for civilian use!
Next to the Russian Chemical Weapons lab - for Duck hunting.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 04:24 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post

So now for the first time a sizeable majority of the population are eager to join NATO asap but it is apparent looking at Halonen and the Baltic States row, that there is still quite a lot of resistance to this idea. Sweden PM Magdalena Andersson did state Sweden did not intend to join just yet. OTOH reports claim that as close partners of NATO, taking part in its exercises and attending NATO conferences, Sweden and Finland look to be joining NATO soon. With Russia withdrawing from Kyiv and from the western parts of Ukraine, this might need to be quick, before Russia has a chance to redeploy and recruit the next round of several hundred thousand conscripts. It might start clicking its heels, with Putin looking over at the 'unfriendly' countries and saying, 'Who's next?!'

We have been warned.
If the Ukraine thing drags on through the summer, the moment is lost. People will realize what a struggle Putin has and then realize he has no momentum to tackle Finland in the next 5-10 years. The economic recovery of Russia will take several years.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 05:36 AM   #191
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I think the best reason for Finland to join is that unlike Canada or Germany, they seem actually willing to uphold the 2% obligation.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 06:39 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I think the best reason for Finland to join is that unlike Canada or Germany, they seem actually willing to uphold the 2% obligation.
This is not a reason.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 06:52 AM   #193
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
This is not a reason.
"If I join, I will already be good at it" is a definitely a reason
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Old 2nd April 2022, 06:57 AM   #194
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To poke at a different kind of news about tanks...

U.S. will work with allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine -NY Times


ETA - In much darker news, though,

Russians booby-trapping homes as they retreat, claims Zelenskiy

Ukraine’s president says the Russians are leaving mines as they withdraw; central cities hit by new missile strikes


Quote:
“They are mining the whole territory. They are mining homes, mining equipment, even the bodies of people who were killed,” Zelenskyy said in his customary video address to the nation. “There are a lot of trip wires, a lot of other dangers.”
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Old 2nd April 2022, 07:13 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
It's more an issue of perverse incentives. Warnings about the danger of the influence of war profiteers are not new, as Eisenhower's famous farewell address shows.
There is a difference between making a profit and profiteering. Is there any evidence for the latter in the case of arms supplies to Ukraine?
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Old 2nd April 2022, 08:07 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
"If I join, I will already be good at it" is a definitely a reason
No it isn't.

It is a reason why they may be an effective member, but no reason to join.

If I were to enter a 10k running race, I'd be good at it, but that isn't a reason why I should enter.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 08:33 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if that turns out to be true. It's straight from the 3rd World Tinpot Dictator playbook.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 09:05 AM   #198
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if that turns out to be true. It's straight from the 3rd World Tinpot Dictator playbook.
The first report some days ago that they were abandoning supplies as they retreated made me think the Ukrainians had better beware of booby traps. I mean if the Russians really left stocks of artillery shells behind, I sure wouldn't want to be the first to try to pick one up.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 09:06 AM   #199
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Actually it is a stranger. That is the only way polling can be done reputably.
Nope try again.

Quote:
There is no way to trust this.
Please do show evidence that Levada Centre polling is unreliable or shut up. Seriously.

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Everything in Russia has changed.
No, some things have not changed.
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Old 2nd April 2022, 09:18 AM   #200
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What the Russian people need is a Greta with a VPN to show everyone the truth... outside of the Kremlin she would sit with sign saying "School strike for peace", and she would dispel the veil of lies that keep her people enthralled to Putins regime.

In reality the truth has been available for them for years but they just don't want to know the truth. They don't want to read how their country is a festering corrupt ulcer on the face of the Earth because their pride prevents it. Pride, patriotism and chuvanism keeps people from acknowledging reality because it hurts them emotionally. And if Russians are anything it's being proud, patriotic and chuvanistic.

Whenever the flaws of their society are made manifest it's easiest to strike outwards, to blame others for their troubles instead of coming to acceptance that their own passivity and indifference is to blame for their country's state.
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