Merged: Russia threatens Finland & Sweden/ they may join within months

[dudalb]

I predict there will be a interrim security agreesment between NATO (or individual NATO coutnries" and Finland with NATO troops being stationed in Finland which would be a de facto "Tripwire", until they are accepted fro membershis.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

We've got a few hundred more prototypes to go before we get there, he's going to be waiting for a while.

And FInland is way ahead of him in the line.
BUt , hell, even the US Forces only have a few F35 operational as a pioneer program.
But it says something about certain military "reformers" that the plane they have criticised from day one is the one that everybody seems to want.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I predict there will be a interrim security agreesment between NATO (or individual NATO coutnries" and Finland with NATO troops being stationed in Finland which would be a de facto "Tripwire", until they are accepted fro membershis.

This looks to be the case with both the UK and US at least.

I don't think that Finland needs to worry about a Russian conventional attack in the near future now.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

So, that cited a Financial Times article. I think I found it, but I won't post it, in case it's not the one they were citing (link takes you to a pay page). It goes on to say:



In short, Erdogan is feeling like he's not being taken seriously. His objections were domestic, in a speech to his own parliamaent. There's still a path to NATO membership, he just wants more than platitudes.

He has made the claim that Sweden is harbouring terrorists and there are terrorists in the Swedish government.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

This looks to be the case with both the UK and US at least.

I don't think that Finland needs to worry about a Russian conventional attack in the near future now.

US Marines will b e arriving in Finland for manuevers in June. Would not be surpised if this turns into a extended stay.

[Jimbo07]

Originally Posted by Tero

Erdogan got F-15s. He wanted F-354s.

It looks like Greece doesn't even want them to get F-16s!

I found it interesting in the article:

Quote:

Ankara’s recent threats to tank Sweden and Finland’s bids for NATO membership have created uncertainty over whether those same lawmakers will allow the F-16 sale to proceed.

“Turkey has some explaining to do,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., told Defense News.

So, arms sales look to be one lever the US is going to pull...

Strange days...

[eerok]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Far less likely.

You're right. It's not likely to happen, at least any time soon, but the heart wants what the heart wants. I'm disgusted by tyrants, and I always hope to see them thwarted.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I thought the vote would be a bit closer in the Finnish Parliament though the Pro NATO position would still win with a comfortable margin. I thought at least 30 or 40 form the left wing Finnish parties would vote no. I guess Putin really has scared a lot of people in Finland.

Not scared. Just a realisation that the friendship on Russia's side was all fake.

Once you lose trust, once bitten twice shy.

[Tero]

The "Friendship document" and friendship were fake as well, with the Soviet Union. Though there were a few Finns going to Russia in groups and the communist dad of a buddy of mine proudly displayed a Russian radio in his living room. Late 1960s.

We only drove the Ladas as cheap cars. My dad had both a Volga (a used taxi) and Popeda. Then he went to a Mini. It's heater was not as good as the Russian cars.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finno-...Treaty_of_1948

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

He has made the claim that Sweden is harbouring terrorists and there are terrorists in the Swedish government.

The PKK sent condolences to the family of assassinated PM Olof Palme as they considered him to be a friend of theirs. Erdogan thinks this is a good opportunity to stir up old resentments - a typically childish reaction we would expect from someone with a grudge mentality.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Tero

The "Friendship document" and friendship were fake as well, with the Soviet Union. Though there were a few Finns going to Russia in groups and the communist dad of a buddy of mine proudly displayed a Russian radio in his living room. Late 1960s.

We only drove the Ladas as cheap cars. My dad had both a Volga (a used taxi) and Popeda. Then he went to a Mini. It's heater was noty as good as the Russian cars.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finno-...Treaty_of_1948

There were a few people in my family who joined the communist party and went on friendship exchanges, holidays in the Black Sea, Bulgaria and chess tournaments with real life Russian grandmasters. I respect people's right to choose whatever political belief they wish. However, people are feeling quite betrayed. Turku municipality even provided the Russian diplomats at the Russian Consulate with a summer cottage, dacha-style and sauna in Ruissalo - famous for its oak forests - and their own private orthodox church, No more! All shut now.

[Vixen]

I never thought I would say this but...

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Boris Johnson holds press conference with Finnish president – watch live
16,326 views Streamed live on 11 May 2022 Boris Johnson and Finnish president Sauli Niinisto hold news conference following their meeting

Thank you, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson!

For once Boris got it right.

[Tero]

Still hints of F-35 demands. I can't get the Bloomberg article or the HS pay2wall article.

Quote:

Petteri Tuohinen HS, Henri Häkkinen HS
18.5. 10:13 | Updated May 18 14:04
TURKEY is ready to accept Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership if the country returns to NATO's and the United States' F-35 fighter program, Bloomberg reports .

under that demands listed: "liberalization of [Swedish] arms trade and a tighter grip on kurds."
https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008824862.html

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Tero

Still hints of F-35 demands. I can't get the Bloomberg article or the HS pay2wall article.

under that demands listed: "liberalization of [Swedish] arms trade and a tighter grip on kurds."
https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008824862.html

While I suspect the F-35 is still on the table, the Turks will probably settle on the modernization deal for their block 30/40/50 F-16s that has been stalled. The Swedish arms sales thing is largely symbolic. There's no capability the Swedes sell that the Turks can't (and haven't already) bought from somewhere else.

[Captain_Swoop]

I can't see the Swedes handing people over to the Turks for torture and execution.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

I can't see the Swedes handing people over to the Turks for torture and execution.

Sweden (and Finland) has never had any problem extraditing alleged terrorists. It is one reason some of the notorious terrorist or criminal acts happen, when the asylum-seeker is turned down and asked to leave the country and they retaliate with extreme violence. Not sure what Erdogan is referring to.

Sounds like he has a shopping list of things he thinks he can demand in exchange for his NATO vote. Like a child.

[Tero]

First signs of Erdogan "talking"

Quote:

Turkey's Erdoğan says he will talk to Finland and NATO Stoltenberg on Saturday
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he will talk to Finland and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg on Saturday , Reuters reports. He told reporters on Friday.

Erdoğan has repeatedly said he opposes Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership.

Erdoğan said that he had met with the Dutch prime minister today, Friday, and that he would have talks with Britain in addition to Finland on Saturday. He did not specify with whom he intended to discuss Finland or Britain.

Anni Keski-Heikkilä, editor

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000008807635.html

[Tero]

US involvement unclear. Turkey wants out of all restrictions.

Quote:

According to Reuters , the representative of the US State Department, Ned Price , has commented that Turkey's requirements in the Finnish and Swedish NATO application process are not a bilateral matter between the US and Turkey.

Price added that the US is in talks with Turkey and remains confident that a solution will be found to the disagreement.

Turkey made demands on Finland and Sweden in connection with, among other things, the activities of the PKK of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.

The problem is officially between Sweden, Finland and Turkey. However, it is widely believed that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking advantage of the situation to put pressure on the United States in Turkey’s long-standing demands on the country.

These include the cessation of US support for Kurdish armed forces in Syria and the lifting of arms export restrictions on Turkey.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/...b-e4acabd11662

[Tero]

Quote:

President Erdoğan stated that a mentality that disregarded terrorist organizations which posed a threat to an ally within NATO would not comply with the spirit of alliance and friendship.

President Erdoğan noted that it was Türkiye’s most natural right to expect respect to and support for the legitimate and determined fight Türkiye had been putting out against a clear threat to its national security and citizens.

https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/english/...alk-over-phone

[The Don]

Another very lengthy (1hr) and IMO very interesting video from the Perun Youtube channel.

This one discusses Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

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yt;dw - huge strategic error on Russia's behalf.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by The Don

Another very lengthy (1hr) and IMO very interesting video from the Perun Youtube channel.

This one discusses Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

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yt;dw - huge strategic error on Russia's behalf.

Good summary. Re 9:40 in: interesting when the narrator speaks of Alexander II, who was popular in Finland, as for the first time there was a sense of a separate Finnish identity from Sweden, whom it had been a part of for nigh on 800 years (or at least the South Western part). One of Finland's most effective statemen, Gustaf Mauritz Armfelt, 1757 - 1814, understood the power of diplomacy, which some modern warmongers could learn from. Armfelt famously stated: “We are no longer Swedes, we do not want to become Russians, so let us be Finns” - something that was very radical at the time.

Quote:

A Finnish great man

The third and more comprehensive interpretation of history is the Finnish view, which appreciates Armfelt's crucial role in the administration of King Gustav III and especially in the rapid progress of Swedish-Finnish cultural and scientific life. At the same time, it sees the greatest value of Armfelt's life's work in the last years of his life as Finland's representative in Russia, especially in his consistent and successful work to recognize Finland's autonomy, preserve Finland's former social freedom and laws, and to connect old Finland to the rest of Finland.

One of the most important acts of historical research is Armfelt's courageous and determined work in connecting Old Finland to the rest of Finland

<snipped - this refers to the area around Vyborg and which Armfelt managed to extend to as far as Lake Ladoga in the East and giving the region the same 'free man' rights as Sweden-Finland 'peasants' {='country dwellers'} as opposed to Russian serfdom and feudalism>



The comparison [= with Mannerheim] is justified by the fact that Mannerheim played a key role in Finland's independence and in the years of World War II and secession. Armfelt, on the other hand, played an equally crucial role in the birth of Finnish autonomy and its transformation into a Finnish Western society. Both can be said to be the founders of Finland, even though Armfelt was once more of a European celebrity than Mannerheim was.

As a testament and self-assessment, GM Armfelt's letter to Baron CE Mannerheim , which he died in writing in Tsarskoye Selo on August 11, 1814, has survived for generations:

"The emperor's generous favor with Finland has been the only consolation in my last days of pain. Maybe I'll still have time to pray. "

KALERVO MÄKINEN Turun Sanomat

If only present day politicians and statesmen could achieve this type of peace and cooperation without the need of belligerence, aggression and outright threats (cf Zakharova, take note).

[Tero]

What follows now is weeks of behind the scenes activity. Erdogan will slowly come to terms with almost no gain. He then has to whip his staff to turning that into a victory.

[dudalb]

And, the end, Erdogan sure as hell does not trust Putin one inch. He knows some of Putin ideolgoues still have "TSARGRAD" in the back of their minds.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by The Don

Another very lengthy (1hr) and IMO very interesting video from the Perun Youtube channel.

This one discusses Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

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yt;dw - huge strategic error on Russia's behalf.

Perun videos are pretty good, and provides a lot of really useful history and a nice rundown of the militaries involved. As a compliment to that video, here's another one I found pretty interesting, from Caspian Report:

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This one centers more on certain specific geographic vulnerabilities that Russia has to Finland. In particular, I hadn't known how vulnerable Murmansk is to being cut off from the rest of Russia by attacks from Finland. There's just a single road and railroad running for hundreds of miles, and any interruption of that line cuts it off. That's a giant vulnerability, one which is going to hurt Russia deeply because they're going to feel the need to sink a lot of resources to protect against.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

And, the end, Erdogan sure as hell does not trust Putin one inch. He knows some of Putin ideolgoues still have "TSARGRAD" in the back of their minds.

That's the thing. Both seem to want a return to the 19th Century geopolitics of the region.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by jimbob

That's the thing. Both seem to want a return to the 19th Century geopolitics of the region.

An Anglo French army taking the Crimea and the complete decline and collapse of the Ottoman Empire?

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

That's the thing. Both seem to want a return to the 19th Century geopolitics of the region.

They never went away. Control of the Bosporus and Istanbul has always been a Russian desire whether Tsarist,Soviet, or Putin.
That is why , in the end Erdogan will accept the best deal he can get. He needs NATO more then NATO needs him.

[Tero]

Quote:

Finland and Sweden will send delegations to Ankara, Turkey, tomorrow to continue discussions with Turkey on its negative attitude towards NATO membership. According to Reuters, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Green) told the Davos Economic Forum.

No further information is currently available on the composition of delegations. It is known that the negotiating link will be kept open at various levels.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke with both Finnish and Swedish leaders over the weekend.

Erdoğan has also criticized Finland's and Sweden's restrictions on defense exports and their refusal to extradite [to] Turkey.

Haavisto said at the forum, according to Reuters, that Turkey's security concerns could be addressed. However, according to him, some of the demands are not directly linked to Finland and Sweden, but to other NATO countries.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12459257

[Vixen]

An enterprising brewing company in Savonlinna, East Finland, has brought out a new brand beer called, 'OTAN', which is NATO spelt backwards and also means 'I'll take it' ('otan'). The cans are in NATO colours of navy and silver, and depicts a mediaeval knight in shining armour and helm with the NATO logo on his chest. Apparently it has been inundated with press and public interest.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Vixen

An enterprising brewing company in Savonlinna, East Finland, has brought out a new brand beer called, 'OTAN', which is NATO spelt backwards and also means 'I'll take it' ('otan'). The cans are in NATO colours of navy and silver, and depicts a mediaeval knight in shining armour and helm with the NATO logo on his chest. Apparently it has been inundated with press and public interest.

I believe OTAN is also the French language acronym equivalent to the English language NATO.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Vixen

An enterprising brewing company in Savonlinna, East Finland, has brought out a new brand beer called, 'OTAN', which is NATO spelt backwards and also means 'I'll take it' ('otan'). The cans are in NATO colours of navy and silver, and depicts a mediaeval knight in shining armour and helm with the NATO logo on his chest. Apparently it has been inundated with press and public interest.

Might be be inundated with a lawsuit, too:

Third parties wishing to use the Alliance logo, name or emblems must seek and receive authorization in advance from NATO by emailing the NATO HQ brand team with a clear description of how and why they intend to use the asset, preferably accompanied by a visual mockup.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/129138.htm

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

I believe OTAN is also the French language acronym equivalent to the English language NATO.

That is correct. French adjectives follow the noun instead of precede it as in English, so the order is reversed. So it's Organisation du Traité de l’Atlantique Nord

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Might be be inundated with a lawsuit, too:

Third parties wishing to use the Alliance logo, name or emblems must seek and receive authorization in advance from NATO by emailing the NATO HQ brand team with a clear description of how and why they intend to use the asset, preferably accompanied by a visual mockup.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/129138.htm

If they don't use the logo, they can probably get away with it. If 'otan' is also a word in Finnish as Vixen suggested, then it may be legally distinct enough to get away with it.

[ponderingturtle]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

I believe OTAN is also the French language acronym equivalent to the English language NATO.

And it is in the official NATO iconography. See the flag at the top of the page

https://www.nato.int/

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

If they don't use the logo, they can probably get away with it. If 'otan' is also a word in Finnish as Vixen suggested, then it may be legally distinct enough to get away with it.

Yeah but they are in fact using the logo.

Probably should buy a few cans before they become unobtainable collector's items.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Yeah but they are in fact using the logo.

Probably should buy a few cans before they become unobtainable collector's items.

It is a generic compass design - can't stop people using the four-point compass symbol to signify north, east, south and west. As for trademark or copyright, this only applies for something in the same field. So a beer called OTAN is in a completely different industry from the military or intelligence, not least because 'otan' is a Finnish phrase albeit incomplete, unless you add 'olutta' [=some beer]. So now, according to YLE the nanny state is fretting in case 'I'll take the beer' is encouraging people to drink.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Vixen

It is a generic compass design - can't stop people using the four-point compass symbol to signify north, east, south and west. As for trademark or copyright, this only applies for something in the same field. So a beer called OTAN is in a completely different industry from the military or intelligence, not least because 'otan' is a Finnish phrase albeit incomplete, unless you add 'olutta' [=some beer]. So now, according to YLE the nanny state is fretting in case 'I'll take the beer' is encouraging people to drink.

No, it's pretty obviously the NATO logo.

And they're pretty obviously trying to profit from the association with NATO and NATO's reputation, which is a no-no.

[Tero]

Turkey leader distracting his voters from bad domestic issues
Editorial:

Quote:

Delegations of Finnish and Swedish officials met with Turkey in Ankara on Wednesday. Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Green) will visit Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, among others. The United States spectacularly supports Finland's and Sweden's membership of NATO and guarantees their security even in the gray period when the countries are not yet full members of NATO.

IN THEORY , the relationship between Finland and Turkey is good, and Turkey should have nothing against Finland's NATO membership.

President Sauli Niinistö discussed Finland's intentions with Erdoğan on the phone at the beginning of April, and again last weekend.

The relationship between Sweden and Turkey is more tense, as Sweden is more supportive of the Kurds than Finland and criticizes Turkey.

However, Turkey's actions are not about Finland or even Sweden. Elections are approaching and the Turkish economy is in crisis. Erdoğan raises national sentiment and shifts attention away from Turkey’s own problems. Erdoğan has also announced a new military operation in Syria - making it difficult for Finland and Sweden to agree to Turkey's demands to lift arms restrictions.

The European Union has seen how Turkey works. Relations between Turkey and Greece are tense, due in part to the division of Cyprus, which is hampering EU decision-making and cooperation between NATO and the EU. At NATO, Turkey is constantly creating problems for its allies. Over the years, Turkey has delayed numerous decisions.

It is about the credibility of NATO. Although Turkey does not link its demands on Finland and Sweden directly to the war in Ukraine, Erdoğan questions the union's unity and open door policy at a critical time. In its war of aggression in Ukraine, Russia has challenged the entire European security order.

In negotiations with Turkey, the final solution is not in the hands of Finland and Sweden, especially if Turkey is seeking something that can only be obtained from the United States. But since Turkey's demands on Finland and Sweden concern terrorism and arms exports, something is likely to be agreed with Turkey.

However, concessions have their limits. It is also clear that Finland and Sweden will join NATO together, although Turkey is trying to wedge between the countries.

https://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitukset/ar...008841788.html

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Yeah but they are in fact using the logo.

Probably should buy a few cans before they become unobtainable collector's items.

That's not the NATO logo. It's a 4-pointed compass that's superficially similar to the NATO logo, but it's definitely not the same. In particular, each of the NATO compass points are two-tone (a white side and a blue side), and the background is also split into 4 panels with two different shades of blue. But NATO doesn't have a monopoly on 4-pointed compass logos. The basic design predates NATO, there are lots of other examples out there, so unless it really matches the NATO logo in the specifics, it's not going to infringe.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by theprestige

No, it's pretty obviously the NATO logo.

I disagree. It's certainly similar, but it's still not the NATO logo. Try a google image search for "compass logo" and you'll find lots of stuff that isn't the NATO logo but looks just as similar.

Quote:

And they're pretty obviously trying to profit from the association with NATO and NATO's reputation

Sure, I agree.

Quote:

which is a no-no.

Only to the extent that consumers might actually be deceived. Otherwise, you're free to make associations all you like. That's how parody movies like Space Balls work, for example. That profited off the association with Star Wars, quite explicitly, but nobody was fooled into thinking that Space Balls was part of the Star Wars franchise.

And I doubt Finnish consumers are actually going to be deceived. Aside from the fact that the name is also a word play, I don't think OTAN is what Finnish would use to describe NATO. They likely use the English version of the acronym. If we have any Finns on the board, they can correct me if I'm wrong.