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Old Yesterday, 03:05 AM   #1001
Darat
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
I can only assume that Dom has five friends he wants to meet up with.
Can I remind you which forum you are posting in? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence!
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Old Yesterday, 03:32 AM   #1002
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Well, the government's anti-science messaging has worked - #SackVallance & #SackWhitty are both trending on twitter. They're being blamed for absolutely everything.

Nothing to do with Johnson or Cummings.
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Old Yesterday, 04:06 AM   #1003
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Let's face it, they were the ones pushing herd immunity at the start. Without them, Johnson wouldn't have latched on to the idea. And they took a fatally long time to rethink that. This mess really is to a very large extent their fault.

I don't know what sacking them now would achieve, but I'd have happily fired both of them into the centre of the sun in March, together with Medley, Edmunds, Leitch and a few others. They led us down the herd immunity pathway at the time when we should have been thinking like New Zealand.
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Old Yesterday, 04:42 AM   #1004
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
I can only assume that Dom has five friends he wants to meet up with.
"Associates"

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Let's face it, they were the ones pushing herd immunity at the start. Without them, Johnson wouldn't have latched on to the idea. And they took a fatally long time to rethink that. This mess really is to a very large extent their fault.

I don't know what sacking them now would achieve, but I'd have happily fired both of them into the centre of the sun in March, together with Medley, Edmunds, Leitch and a few others. They led us down the herd immunity pathway at the time when we should have been thinking like New Zealand.
Yup, and HMG has learned nothing. It's again dithering about what incremental restrictions it should impose, instead of acting now, when we know that cases are rising at about 10% per day, and we know there's a lag from those who are pre-symptomatic, so don't even know they will need a test.

The numbers have risen sufficiently that the covid.joinzoe.com data is now above the noise threshold in most constituencies, and certainly regions.

It suggests 10,000 new symptomatic cases per day (at about 10% per day) and 96,000 total cases.
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Old Yesterday, 04:52 AM   #1005
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Covid-19: UK faces 50,000 cases a day by October without action - Vallance

The UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October without further action, the government's chief scientific adviser has warned.

Sir Patrick Vallance said that "would be expected to lead to about 200 deaths per day" a month after that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084
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Old Yesterday, 05:48 AM   #1006
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Hopefully the newspapers will be doing some polling and realise that many people want stricter controls imposed and will therefore give good headlines to anyone saying we need stricter controls. That seems the only way we can get the UK government to take action. I’ve given up on my idea that the government was being led by focus group results, it’s now simply what gets a good headline for Johnson.
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Old Yesterday, 05:57 AM   #1007
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
"Associates"



Yup, and HMG has learned nothing. It's again dithering about what incremental restrictions it should impose, instead of acting now, when we know that cases are rising at about 10% per day, and we know there's a lag from those who are pre-symptomatic, so don't even know they will need a test.

The numbers have risen sufficiently that the covid.joinzoe.com data is now above the noise threshold in most constituencies, and certainly regions.

It suggests 10,000 new symptomatic cases per day (at about 10% per day) and 96,000 total cases.
They've wasted at least a week, if not two; when the new cases started running at around 3000 a day was the time to act.
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Old Yesterday, 05:59 AM   #1008
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
They've wasted at least a week, if not two; when the new cases started running at around 3000 a day was the time to act.
Remember this government runs on “working days” so they are only a running about 5 days behind.
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Old Yesterday, 06:02 AM   #1009
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Covid-19: UK faces 50,000 cases a day by October without action - Vallance

The UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October without further action, the government's chief scientific adviser has warned.

Sir Patrick Vallance said that "would be expected to lead to about 200 deaths per day" a month after that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084
He said deaths up to 200 a day a month after that, what about a month after that? Is he saying it will plateau at 200 per day? If so what causes it to plateau rather than carryon increasing?
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Old Yesterday, 06:13 AM   #1010
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Looks like Van Morrison has bought into some of the conspiracy theories.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54194498

Of course celebrities have just as much of a right to be cranks as any member of the public. The problem IMO is that their ability to influence others is far greater.
Morrison was always a bit that way.
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Old Yesterday, 06:19 AM   #1011
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
... he was working under the assumption that because Johnson wanted to be PM that he'd completely change and start doing the work once he was.

Very similar to what many Americans assumed about Trump. [godwin]Many Germans assumed the same thing when they voted for a failed artist as chancellor. [/godwin]
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Old Yesterday, 06:25 AM   #1012
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
In a real free-market economy they would lose their contracts and their jobs.
In a real free market economy we wouldn't even know that they failed because we wouldn't be able to see the data.

The economic system currently used is horrible, but don't expect the free market to be any better.
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Old Yesterday, 06:40 AM   #1013
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Let's face it, they were the ones pushing herd immunity at the start. Without them, Johnson wouldn't have latched on to the idea. And they took a fatally long time to rethink that. This mess really is to a very large extent their fault.

I don't know what sacking them now would achieve, but I'd have happily fired both of them into the centre of the sun in March, together with Medley, Edmunds, Leitch and a few others. They led us down the herd immunity pathway at the time when we should have been thinking like New Zealand.
Yes and of course there are many on the New Zealand dance floor trying to
revise history before it is written, but we enjoy a freedom to associate with no anxiety.
However, the best rewarded are residential property owners, and the worst are honest toilers in hospo and tourism.
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Old Yesterday, 06:43 AM   #1014
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Hopefully the newspapers will be doing some polling and realise that many people want stricter controls imposed and will therefore give good headlines to anyone saying we need stricter controls. That seems the only way we can get the UK government to take action. I’ve given up on my idea that the government was being led by focus group results, it’s now simply what gets a good headline for Johnson.
Does this mean that things have to get horribly bad before he'll act ?

Introducing stricter controls when people aren't yet up in arms about the number of cases does risk some negative press.

I've also noted more "Should we just live with the virus" sentiment being expressed like this BBC article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649

I guess this may be start of a cunning plan to just give up.
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Old Yesterday, 06:52 AM   #1015
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
They've wasted at least a week, if not two; when the new cases started running at around 3000 a day was the time to act.
True, and of course there's about 5-6 days pre-symptomatic cases already, so even if we stopped everything today, we'd be at about 16-17 thousand cases a day before it fell.

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Remember this government runs on “working days” so they are only a running about 5 days behind.
Indeed. My flabber still hasn't unghasted from the March COBR meeting that they mentioned on Friday for Monday.
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Old Yesterday, 07:08 AM   #1016
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Is that a normal persons "working days", or Johnson's?
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Old Yesterday, 08:33 AM   #1017
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Was told last night that getting tested is relying on the 'Nanny State' and we should take responsibility for our own health and that tests don't work anyway, they give a positive for any kind of virus like flu and colds so they can't be trusted.

Whatever that is supposed to mean
It means you should probably permanently self isolate from the person who told you that.
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Old Yesterday, 08:40 AM   #1018
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Does this mean that things have to get horribly bad before he'll act ?

We need Boris, or Dom, to do something mindnumbingly embarrassing and stupid, so that the government is forced to take action to distract attention from it. Otherwise they’ll just stumble blindly on.
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Old Yesterday, 09:23 AM   #1019
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I thought leaving the panic buying until today might be cutting it a bit fine, but not at all. The supermarket wasn't short of anything at all. (Frozen brussels sprouts out of stock, delivery expected this afternoon, come back tomorrow for these, otherwise absolutely everything in abundance.) No sign of anyone else stocking up on UHT milk and Ryvita and long-dated cheese and cereal.

I'm prepared for the worst now, and if I have to survive until after Christmas on what I've got plus the local hotel's "community shop" service that doesn't require going inside at all, I can do it. We had the chance to contain this and we totally blew it. We should have clamped down in August, not left it until now.

Of course, after Christmas is a whole other set of problems.
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Old Yesterday, 09:27 AM   #1020
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Does this mean that things have to get horribly bad before he'll act ?

Introducing stricter controls when people aren't yet up in arms about the number of cases does risk some negative press.

I've also noted more "Should we just live with the virus" sentiment being expressed like this BBC article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649

I guess this may be start of a cunning Cummings plan to just give up.
FTFY
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Old Yesterday, 09:28 AM   #1021
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Aha, someone's remembered the Nando's chart:

Quote:
UK coronavirus alert level should move to level 4, meaning transmission is "high or rising exponentially", chief medical officers say
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Old Yesterday, 10:00 AM   #1022
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I thought leaving the panic buying until today might be cutting it a bit fine, but not at all. The supermarket wasn't short of anything at all. (Frozen brussels sprouts out of stock, delivery expected this afternoon, come back tomorrow for these, otherwise absolutely everything in abundance.) No sign of anyone else stocking up on UHT milk and Ryvita and long-dated cheese and cereal.

I'm prepared for the worst now, and if I have to survive until after Christmas on what I've got plus the local hotel's "community shop" service that doesn't require going inside at all, I can do it. We had the chance to contain this and we totally blew it. We should have clamped down in August, not left it until now.

Of course, after Christmas is a whole other set of problems.
Shops round here have so much toilet roll in stock I don't think we need to worry about it. they seemed to over compensate for the shortage, Local B&M now has an entire aisle dedicated to toilet roll.
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Old Yesterday, 02:57 PM   #1023
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JUNE - it’s your civic duty to go to the pub

JULY - go back to the office and buy coffee on the way

AUGUST - eat out, we’ll pay half

SEPTEMBER - this is your last chance to stop spreading the virus
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Old Yesterday, 11:22 PM   #1024
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
JUNE - it’s your civic duty to go to the pub

JULY - go back to the office and buy coffee on the way

AUGUST - eat out, we’ll pay half

SEPTEMBER - this is your last chance to stop spreading the virus
IMO Darat has it nailed - it makes sense when you realise that all Boris Johnson and his government care about is positive headlines.
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Old Today, 12:29 AM   #1025
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The local lockdowns in South Wales haven't yet hit Don Towers, but they're rapidly approaching.

Quote:
Hundreds of thousands of people will have new local lockdowns imposed later, with a warning that more areas are being monitored.

Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil and Newport will face new restrictions from 18:00 BST as cases rise.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54239181
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Old Today, 01:21 AM   #1026
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Aha, someone's remembered the Nando's chart:
I was beginning to think I dreamed that handy chart!
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Old Today, 01:36 AM   #1027
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Hopefully the newspapers will be doing some polling and realise that many people want stricter controls imposed and will therefore give good headlines to anyone saying we need stricter controls. That seems the only way we can get the UK government to take action. I’ve given up on my idea that the government was being led by focus group results, it’s now simply what gets a good headline for Johnson.
If you look at the Government's true policy rather than assume they are actually trying to combat Covid then they've done rather well.

1) Transfer public money to our chums and backers
2) Ensure our chums and backers continue to make shedloads of cash
3) Maintain vaguely positive headlines - or at least not negative enough that any of our media chums would ever think of backing Labour so that we can continue to do 1 and 2

Anyone argue they aren't doing a bang up job of this?
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Old Today, 01:44 AM   #1028
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I thought leaving the panic buying until today might be cutting it a bit fine, but not at all. The supermarket wasn't short of anything at all. (Frozen brussels sprouts out of stock, delivery expected this afternoon, come back tomorrow for these, otherwise absolutely everything in abundance.) No sign of anyone else stocking up on UHT milk and Ryvita and long-dated cheese and cereal.

I'm prepared for the worst now, and if I have to survive until after Christmas on what I've got plus the local hotel's "community shop" service that doesn't require going inside at all, I can do it. We had the chance to contain this and we totally blew it. We should have clamped down in August, not left it until now.

Of course, after Christmas is a whole other set of problems.
I run a shop and can see suppliers are still struggling to get various things and have been since March. Noticeable that staples like rice and TP are starting to show as out of stock on systems again. A lot of stuff coming from Europe is affected even basic things like tins of Italian tomatoes.

If a serious COVID lockdown runs into or dovetails with January and Brexit we are in serious trouble for a hell of a lot of food supplies. And we won't be able to substitute local stuff. Not that your average Brexiteer would appreciate it, they think that we can grow tomatoes on industrial scale in January in England. Probably the kind of person who asked me if we had any locally grown mangoes last summer!
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Old Today, 01:45 AM   #1029
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO Darat has it nailed - it makes sense when you realise that all Boris Johnson and his government care about is positive headlines.
It makes sense when you realise economic policy is being defined by Wetherspoon and Jim Dyson.
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Old Today, 02:09 AM   #1030
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People in England should work from home "if they can" to reduce social mixing and slow the spread of the virus, Michael Gove has said.

The Cabinet Office Minister also told BBC Breakfast trials of spectators at sports fixtures would be "paused".

Also pubs to close at 10 and table service only.
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Old Today, 02:12 AM   #1031
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I run a shop and can see suppliers are still struggling to get various things and have been since March. Noticeable that staples like rice and TP are starting to show as out of stock on systems again. A lot of stuff coming from Europe is affected even basic things like tins of Italian tomatoes.

If a serious COVID lockdown runs into or dovetails with January and Brexit we are in serious trouble for a hell of a lot of food supplies. And we won't be able to substitute local stuff. Not that your average Brexiteer would appreciate it, they think that we can grow tomatoes on industrial scale in January in England. Probably the kind of person who asked me if we had any locally grown mangoes last summer!
I'm expecting a lot to be made about "eating seasonally" for the hoi polloi. There'll be a lot of celebrity chefs pushing it and official government messaging about it.

IMO it'll be a return to the diet we had in the North of England in the 1970s. In the winter a *lot* of root vegetables and in the summer some very sad round lettuce and anaemic looking tomatoes with salad cream.

Of course our betters will still have enough money to be able to afford the full range of food.
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Old Today, 02:20 AM   #1032
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
People in England should work from home "if they can" to reduce social mixing and slow the spread of the virus, Michael Gove has said.

The Cabinet Office Minister also told BBC Breakfast trials of spectators at sports fixtures would be "paused".

Also pubs to close at 10 and table service only.
I hope that most people have some kind of neck support otherwise there's a very real risk of whiplash from these U-turns.

I'm not unhappy about the steps the government are proposing to take now - they are the very minimum - I am unhappy about how quickly and recklessly the government chose to open up AND how they are now blaming the public for the return to lockdown and aren't taking any responsibility themselves.

I'd be a terrible politician because I would feel honour bound to apologise for opening up so quickly, saying that my desire to get the economy moving again completely underestimated how quickly and severely Covid-19 would retake control.
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Old Today, 02:27 AM   #1033
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Picking away at some things that Michael Gove said this morning, covered in this BBC report:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54247372

Quote:
Mr Gove told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We are stressing that if it is safe to work in your workplace, if you are in a Covid-secure workplace, then you should be there if your job requires it.

"But, if you can work from home you should."
It's not clear what the advice is if your workplace is not Covid-secure but you cannot work from home. Do you have to turn up to work and get sick ?

Quote:
The new message brings England into line with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which have all advised people to work from home wherever possible throughout the pandemic.
So much for forcing the devolved governments to toe the English line . It seems to me that the more cautious approach in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland has paid dividends but there have been issues when they have bowed to pressure and followed England.

Quote:
But Mr Gove told BBC Breakfast the country was "not going back to the sorts of measures that we had in the spring" when strict measures were imposed.
What, never ? Even if we're back to having ICUs packed to capacity, Covid-19 cutting a swathe through care homes and more than a thousand people dying a day ?

Of course by international standards the UK never had strict measures. I have always been able to go out for a run/ride and been able to go to the shops.
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Old Today, 03:16 AM   #1034
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Days since WHO said you had to "test, test, test": 189

Days since PM promised "world-beating" track & trace by end of May: 123

Days since tracing app was meant to be ready: 112

Days when test & trace has done its job: 0

If only we knew why we're heading into a 2nd lockdown.
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Old Today, 03:17 AM   #1035
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Who could have guessed that siphoning government resources to mates who aren't even "in the trade" would have failed to deliver so badly?
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Old Today, 03:24 AM   #1036
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Just listened to Gove’s comment, and he revealed that “a stitch in time saves nine” is the new government policy and not a reversal of previous government advice.
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Old Today, 04:18 AM   #1037
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Who could have guessed that siphoning government resources to mates who aren't even "in the trade" would have failed to deliver so badly?
Well it has delivered on the things that matter. Making your mates rich
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Old Today, 04:22 AM   #1038
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Wrong thread
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