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Old 20th December 2017, 02:46 PM   #361
Segnosaur
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Looks like after having the bill crammed through congress, Trump may not actually sign it until the new year.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...t-away/548906/
Under a 2010 “pay-as-you-go” law requiring Congress to offset any new spending or lower taxes, the $1.5 trillion bill would trigger automatic cuts to Medicare and other programs—across-the-board reductions that Republicans don’t want to be responsible for letting take effect. By waiting until the calendar turns to 2018 to formally enact the tax bill, Trump would push the automatic spending cuts to 2019 and buy Congress another year to waive them.

Congress could pass a waiver allowing Medicare to go on without cuts, but given the rather toxic way that the Republicans have been acting, the Democrats may not be too eager to go along.
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Old 20th December 2017, 03:04 PM   #362
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Looks like Collins is getting screwed again...

First, from November:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3...efore-tax-bill
...she expects legislation to lower health-care premiums to pass Congress before senators take a final vote on a $1.5 trillion tax-reform bill...

But hey, then she agreed to support the tax bill as long as her health care bills were acted on before the end of the year:

https://www.vox.com/2017/12/20/16796...on-health-care
Collins said she would vote for the bill as long as Republicans agreed to pass the bipartisan Alexander-Murray bill to attempt to stabilize the Obamacare exchanges by adding it to an end-of-year spending bill.

And now that the Tax bill has been passed and is awaiting for the signature of a racist orangutan to make it legal?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/20/politi...nts/index.html
Sens. Susan Collins and Lamar Alexander announced Wednesday that they will not push for a controversial health care payment to be included in a short-term spending bill...But despite voting for the tax bill, Congress will leave before taking up Obamacare funding.

But its quote ok, because she has real assurances from the GOP leadership that it will be done.
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Last edited by Segnosaur; 20th December 2017 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 20th December 2017, 03:07 PM   #363
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Looks like after having the bill crammed through congress, Trump may not actually sign it until the new year.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...t-away/548906/
Under a 2010 “pay-as-you-go” law requiring Congress to offset any new spending or lower taxes, the $1.5 trillion bill would trigger automatic cuts to Medicare and other programs—across-the-board reductions that Republicans don’t want to be responsible for letting take effect. By waiting until the calendar turns to 2018 to formally enact the tax bill, Trump would push the automatic spending cuts to 2019 and buy Congress another year to waive them.

Congress could pass a waiver allowing Medicare to go on without cuts, but given the rather toxic way that the Republicans have been acting, the Democrats may not be too eager to go along.
I was completely unaware of the timing issue and was very curious as to how they'd deal with the issue of automatic cuts. Just wait until next month and kick the can down the road for another year? Brilliant
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Old 20th December 2017, 03:11 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I only meant Blair in terms of the buzz he generated (remember Noel Gallagher playing guitar with him at 10 Downing Street? The whole "Cool Britannia" thing that he was a part of?), not in terms of adopting the policies of the opposition.
Of course Blair modelled himself on Bill Clinton, and Cameron sold himself to the Tories as having "the Blair factor". The sequence ended there.
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Old 20th December 2017, 03:30 PM   #365
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I wondered why Collins, Flake and others would trust leadership to actually put through bills like DACA, health-care funding and whatever else was promised.

ETA: But if the coverage mandate is gone, that hoses Obamacare anyway.

Last edited by Minoosh; 20th December 2017 at 03:32 PM.
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Old 20th December 2017, 10:10 PM   #366
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Possibly, yes. Do you think Jones scored any points by calling Alabama voters stupid?
Sorry, did he? I'm not informed on this point.
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Old 20th December 2017, 10:13 PM   #367
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
Sorry, did he? I'm not informed on this point.
Maybe he did in the same way that Clinton called American voters "deplorable."
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Old 20th December 2017, 10:24 PM   #368
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The one "loud and clear" that I got from both Brexit and the election of President Trump is that the electorate at large consider the majority of politicians (of either major party) to be untrustworthy, acting in their own self interests rather than those of their constituents and to be too immersed in the Washington (or Westminster) bubble to be aware of the problems that real people face.

If the Democratic Party's message is just "not Trump" or "look how rotten the Republicans are" IMO that will not be sufficient.

Instead the Democratic Party needs a compelling and attractive counter message and policies delivered by attractive candidates.
Wow. That's *********** caustic. But it's also true. Pardon the snippage, I agree with everything you said.

I'm not anti-Republican in principle, but they've lost their principles. Well, except for their worst principle, that trickle down economics works. Aside from that, they are kowtowing to a know-nothing president and it's a damned shame for them.
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Old 20th December 2017, 10:26 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Maybe he did in the same way that Clinton called American voters "deplorable."
Yeah, maybe, but let's hear from Minoosh rather than make guesses.
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Old 20th December 2017, 10:32 PM   #370
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
Yeah, maybe, but let's hear from Minoosh rather than make guesses.
A quick google turned out nothing.
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Old 20th December 2017, 11:13 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
Sorry, did he? I'm not informed on this point.
Someone made a generalization that Alabama was too intellectually backward to vote rationally. My point was that it was an over-generalization. Doug Jones didn't call anyone stupid that I know of.

I don't like name calling. IMO it's not helpful. I want Americans to be able to talk to each other and "yer stupid, no yer stupid" doesn't facilitate that. I fall into it sometimes. It's very common behavior but not particularly persuasive.
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Old 20th December 2017, 11:52 PM   #372
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So say you have 10 people. Five voted for Hillary, five voted for Trump. The difference between a tie and a landslide is persuading one of those five people to change his or her mind. But if you call all five stupid right off the bat, you are not going to persuade any of them. IMO. Maybe you won't anyway, maybe they really are just plain stupid but I think his shtick is getting old even to some of those supporters. Virtually every day there's some new pettiness or immaturity or ignorance and imagine that some of his supporters are losing patience with him, at the very least. I've given up predicting when (if) we'll reach the tipping point.

ETA: Wandered off point. Is there any credence in the position that repatriated American dollars will start being invested (in something other than automation). The Economist early on liked the idea of changes to the corporate tax code, and they certainly aren't cheerleaders for Trump.

Last edited by Minoosh; 21st December 2017 at 12:03 AM. Reason: fiddling around
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Old 21st December 2017, 12:46 AM   #373
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
ETA: Wandered off point. Is there any credence in the position that repatriated American dollars will start being invested (in something other than automation). The Economist early on liked the idea of changes to the corporate tax code, and they certainly aren't cheerleaders for Trump.
Corporations are currently sitting on huge cash piles that they're neither investing nor returning to the shareholders in the form of dividends and share buy-backs. The reason that they're not investing this money IMO is:
  • The inexorable rise in the stock market had meant that there are few, if any, bargains out there if they wish to invest by acquisition
  • There is currently plenty of spare capacity out there in most industries so, some exceptions aside, there is little to be gained from proactive investment in capacity
  • Post-crash there as been little appetite for speculative investment (and why should there be with profits at all time highs ?). Why take a risk when you can sit back and watch the cash roll in ?

It is likely that repatriated money will continue to sit in corporate accounts and won't trigger a major round of investment. If it does then there's a risk we're going to see the kind of "bubble" that we had in tech stocks pre-2000 where there was a ****-load of money chasing a few decent prospects with the resulting bubble - and bubble pop.

If the money is returned to shareholders, this will likely drive stock prices up further - another bubble.
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Old 21st December 2017, 02:39 AM   #374
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
So say you have 10 people. Five voted for Hillary, five voted for Trump. The difference between a tie and a landslide is persuading one of those five people to change his or her mind. But if you call all five stupid right off the bat, you are not going to persuade any of them. IMO. Maybe you won't anyway, maybe they really are just plain stupid but I think his shtick is getting old even to some of those supporters. Virtually every day there's some new pettiness or immaturity or ignorance and imagine that some of his supporters are losing patience with him, at the very least. I've given up predicting when (if) we'll reach the tipping point.
Its not quite that simple in real life. We aren't talking about reasonable, rational people who may just have a difference of opinion on certain policy issues where reasonable people might have disagreements. We are talking about a group of people (Trump and Moore supporters) who are bigots (among other negative traits).

If this were an earlier election (e.g. Obama vs. Romney, Bush Vs Gore, etc.) then I would not be so quick to label someone 'stupid' for supporting one or the other candidate. Why? Because while I may have preferred one party's policies to another, I could at least see merit or value in the other candidate. Trump has taken that concept and completely trashed it.

If we were to use your 10 person analogy, it would be 4 were Clinton supporters, 4 liked Trump. We can assume the 4 trump supporters are probably lost to reason and logic. It would likely be a waste of time to try to reach them. (After all, Trump still has ~30-40% support, even after he said some neo-nazis were fine people.) Ideally the goal is to reach the remaining 2 people, to either vote for Clinton, or at least stay home on election day and not vote Trump. Reminding those 2 people of the stigma of being a Moore/Trump supporter could be a part of that.

I really don't think Hillary lost many votes with her 'deplorables' comment. Yes, some Trump supporters took it as some sort of badge of honor, but those people were probably quite deplorable to begin with.
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Old 21st December 2017, 04:42 AM   #375
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This is becoming eerily on point (fast forward to 00:30):
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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Old 21st December 2017, 04:57 AM   #376
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If the money is returned to shareholders, this will likely drive stock prices up further - another bubble.
This is what business leaders themselves have said they will do with the extra money
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Old 21st December 2017, 06:28 AM   #377
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Uh oh. AARP speaks out against the bill.


Quote:
AARP says the Republican tax plan puts Medicare and Medicaid in jeopardy.

And that's not the only problem the group has with the bill, which is on its way to the President's desk.

Several of the provisions "may result in little if any tax benefit for many older tax filers, and for others, a tax increase," AARP CEO Jo Ann Jenkins wrote in a letter sent to lawmakers this week.

Two groups that the GOP can't afford to upset: the NRA and the AARP.
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Old 21st December 2017, 10:35 AM   #378
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Originally Posted by Pterodactyl View Post
I think it’s possible that tax cuts might stimulate the economy, some job growth but I’m highly doubtful we’ll see tax revenue growth commensurate to offset the massive addition to the deficit.
“Stimulating the economy” results in 2 things
1) Increased economic growth
2) Increased inflation.

The thing to remember is that the Fed is ALWAYS using monetary policy to balance these, and monitory policy is a more powerful tool than fiscal stimulus in almost all cases.

If the fiscal stimulus works, you get an increase in inflation. When there is an increase in inflation the Fed responds by realising interest rates which shows the economy and brings inflation back into line. The net result is that fiscal stimulus doesn’t normally give you meaningful economic growth, it just creates deficits.
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Old 21st December 2017, 10:41 AM   #379
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Good points, lomiller.

Frankly, economic growth only really matters if it's an actual increase in capability. Investments in infrastructure and education will have much more real and long-lasting effects on growing the economy than short term tax cuts.
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Old 21st December 2017, 10:43 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by Armitage72 View Post
Uh oh. AARP speaks out against the bill.


Two groups that the GOP can't afford to upset: the NRA and the AARP.
Trump had already alienated the VFW before the election and it hardly mattered.
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Old 21st December 2017, 10:47 AM   #381
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Trump had already alienated the VFW before the election and it hardly mattered.
True, Trump did piss off a lot of veterans. But, had he not done so perhaps he might have done even better in the election (maybe even gotten a majority of the popular vote). With so many factors at play, its hard to say whether one issue is the difference between winning and losing.

Alienating senior voters could just be the tipping point.
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Old 21st December 2017, 10:51 AM   #382
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
True, Trump did piss off a lot of veterans.
But how many voted did he actually lose in that. Downplaying McCains torture didn't cost him McCains vote after all.
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Old 21st December 2017, 11:13 AM   #383
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
But how many voted did he actually lose in that. Downplaying McCains torture didn't cost him McCains vote after all.
True McCain has supported Trump... doesn't mean that there aren't a few veterans around who feel differently.

I've been trying to find some exit poll results comparing Trump's and Romney's support from veterans in their respective elections but haven't had much luck yet.
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Old 21st December 2017, 12:04 PM   #384
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Corporations are currently sitting on huge cash piles that they're neither investing nor returning to the shareholders in the form of dividends and share buy-backs. The reason that they're not investing this money IMO is:
  • The inexorable rise in the stock market had meant that there are few, if any, bargains out there if they wish to invest by acquisition
  • There is currently plenty of spare capacity out there in most industries so, some exceptions aside, there is little to be gained from proactive investment in capacity
  • Post-crash there as been little appetite for speculative investment (and why should there be with profits at all time highs ?). Why take a risk when you can sit back and watch the cash roll in ?

It is likely that repatriated money will continue to sit in corporate accounts and won't trigger a major round of investment. If it does then there's a risk we're going to see the kind of "bubble" that we had in tech stocks pre-2000 where there was a ****-load of money chasing a few decent prospects with the resulting bubble - and bubble pop.

If the money is returned to shareholders, this will likely drive stock prices up further - another bubble.
My impression is different - we're not talking about the total. The tax amnesty's effect is the difference between the prior tax percentage and the new tax percentage. These companies were paying maybe 15% tax previously, it may be knocking them down to 10% due to the combination of reduced rate and loss of deductions.

Just as an example, for AAPL, $252B, 5% reduction in taxes comes to $12.6B, divided into 5.13B shares, comes to $2.46c/share windfall for AAPL shareowners. And yes, this will almost certainly be returned to investors in the form of share buybacks - the strategy is to do this over years, buying on dips.

Secondly, it's not sitting offshore anywhere as a bank balance - it's invested in American equities and bonds already, just not marked as brought onshore to the corporate account. This is why the repatriation of 2004 had zero effect on the economy, it's just accounting. Or at least, any money 'brought back' for share buybacks will also have a corresponding sale of another asset from the investment fund portfolio.
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Old 22nd December 2017, 12:01 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I really don't think Hillary lost many votes with her 'deplorables' comment. Yes, some Trump supporters took it as some sort of badge of honor, but those people were probably quite deplorable to begin with.
I was actually astonished at a New Yorker article last year about how in love white supremacists were with Trump. I had not thought his core support was with such groups. I figured he was benefiting from general nativism (which isn't even a word, per spell check) but I did not know the degree of it. The open adulation racists heaped on him. I don't think that's a majority of the population. I don't even think it's a majority of white people. But I do remember that it was slightly unsettling when I realized (decades ago) that I was going to become a member of a racial minority. My error was not understanding how many white Americans were just becoming aware of it.

As soon as he said that stuff about Mexican rapists and the big beautiful wall I knew he had hit a nerve. But I thought also that it would become apparent that Trump was an empty suit, channeling resentment and lacking any ideas about how to move America forward. I am only going by family members but I think some of them are disappointed that he is not the leader he claimed he would be.

Sorry, this has gotten pretty off-topic. I don't think he'll be seen as a big leader on tax cuts. This is something the GOP was going to get done regardless.
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Old 22nd December 2017, 11:16 AM   #386
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Looks like the bill is signed, and the Racist Oranguntan is off to Florida.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/22/trum...ding-bill.html

I guess rather than waiting until the new year he heard some commentators on a cable news show asking if there will be "tax cuts for christmas" and decided to sign the bill early. (Some may question how wise it is to have a president who can be taunted into action by cable news shows....)

They also passed a short term spending bill (good until mid-January) as well as a pay-go waiver (not sure if that has an expiry date).
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Old 22nd December 2017, 11:28 AM   #387
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Re: Collins and health care promises in exchange for supporting the bill...

Looks like Collins is getting screwed again...

But its quote ok, because she has real assurances from the GOP leadership that it will be done.
Wonder if Collins has heard of some of Trump's comments on the tax bill:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-m...t-live-stream/
"When the individual mandate is being repealed, that means Obamacare is being repealed"

Does she still trust republican leadership to help pass her health care funding/stabilization bills? At what point will she admit she gave away the vote on taxes in exchange for magic beans?
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Old 22nd December 2017, 11:33 AM   #388
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They can just do pay-go waivers indefinitely without any need for Democrat support, right? So probably no real chance of unpopular entitlement cuts until after the midterms (if at all)?
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Old 22nd December 2017, 11:44 AM   #389
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
They can just do pay-go waivers indefinitely without any need for Democrat support, right? So probably no real chance of unpopular entitlement cuts until after the midterms (if at all)?
The paygo waiver needed a super-majority (in the senate at least), so it required at least some democratic support.

Now, given that the waiver was needed to prevent cuts to things like medicare (programs the Democrats like) there probably wasn't much risk that the paygo would have been defeated.

http://www.edcentral.org/edcyclopedi...oint-of-order/

The only thing is I'm not sure if there is a need to renew the waiver in the future, like there is with some of the other funding bills.
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Old 22nd December 2017, 02:56 PM   #390
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Looks like the bill is signed, and the Racist Oranguntan is off to Florida.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/22/trum...ding-bill.html

I guess rather than waiting until the new year he heard some commentators on a cable news show asking if there will be "tax cuts for christmas" and decided to sign the bill early. (Some may question how wise it is to have a president who can be taunted into action by cable news shows....)

They also passed a short term spending bill (good until mid-January) as well as a pay-go waiver (not sure if that has an expiry date).
Did he ever say he was going to wait until after the year end?
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Old 22nd December 2017, 03:08 PM   #391
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Originally Posted by eeyore1954 View Post
Did he ever say he was going to wait until after the year end?
It was better had the bill gone into effect in Jan, that was the plan. But Trump's ego intervened.
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Old 8th January 2018, 03:26 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Looks like Collins is getting screwed again...
...
And now that the Tax bill has been passed and is awaiting for the signature of a racist orangutan to make it legal?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/20/politi...nts/index.html
Sens. Susan Collins and Lamar Alexander announced Wednesday that they will not push for a controversial health care payment to be included in a short-term spending bill...But despite voting for the tax bill, Congress will leave before taking up Obamacare funding.

But its quote ok, because she has real assurances from the GOP leadership that it will be done.
And once again, it looks like the timetable for health care funding is getting moved...

From: http://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/0...-delayed-more/
Congress took no action on the bills by year’s end, and it’s unclear when they will be taken up. Meanwhile, some Republicans are still calling for ACA repeal, and the Trump administration has issued new rules for short-term health plans that health experts warn could destabilize insurance markets. In this political environment, Collins is working to keep the ACA viable.


Actually no, she's not. She's basically playing a game. More from the article:



The timelines for action on the bills – Collins-Nelson and Alexander-Murray – have changed from the end of 2017 to early 2018, and now Collins has told InsideHealthPolicy.com that the important thing is they be voted on in time to be implemented in 2019, when the ACA’s individual mandate is set to expire.

So Collins has gone from "Before I sign the tax bill", to "Before the end of 2017", to "Some time in January" to "Some time before december 2018".

At best, she was duped, selling her vote on the tax bill for some magic beans. At worse, it was a crass political act, trying to claim "I want to help sick people" while not really carrying what happens to them.
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Old 26th January 2018, 08:42 PM   #393
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Cuomo is threatening to sue over the tax plan. Says he's getting New Jersey and Connecticut on board. Sounds a bit mental to me, but I'm certainly no expert. Does anyone know if there's any solid legal ground for such a thing?
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Old 26th January 2018, 09:16 PM   #394
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
Cuomo is threatening to sue over the tax plan. Says he's getting New Jersey and Connecticut on board. Sounds a bit mental to me, but I'm certainly no expert. Does anyone know if there's any solid legal ground for such a thing?
None. It's just a publicity stunt, meant for consumption of the folks at home. No legal significance at all.
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Old 8th February 2018, 12:32 PM   #395
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Soooo, how quickly they forget...

Tax cut, fantastic for the economy and will increase tax revenues, Laffer curve and all that....

Now, OMG, look at the huge increase in the deficit this latest budget bill is going to cause.

I haven't heard the news media or any of the politicians arguing about how the huge deficit spending is going to collapse our economy like Greece and Venezuela, mention the big needless tax cuts for the billionaires might have been a mistake. It's like that big tax cut for billionaires bill never happened.
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Old 8th February 2018, 01:10 PM   #396
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Soooo, how quickly they forget...

Tax cut, fantastic for the economy and will increase tax revenues, Laffer curve and all that....

Now, OMG, look at the huge increase in the deficit this latest budget bill is going to cause.

I haven't heard the news media or any of the politicians arguing about how the huge deficit spending is going to collapse our economy like Greece and Venezuela, mention the big needless tax cuts for the billionaires might have been a mistake. It's like that big tax cut for billionaires bill never happened.
I'll take tax-and-spend Democrats over borrow-and-spend Republicans any day.
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Old 8th February 2018, 04:13 PM   #397
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Rand Paul is on the Senate soapbox now ranting about deficit spending, blaming the stock market volatility on the spending bill, fear mongering about total economic collapse of the country.

Here was Paul a couple months ago happy with tax cuts:Sen. Rand Paul: Here's why I plan to vote for the Senate tax bill (and my colleagues should step up)

I get it that is consistent on a narrow guide rail. But is he that stupid believing he would actually get a huge cutback in government spending to go with the tax cut?

Which is is Paul, the money is ours and the government can't have it, or we are going to deficit spend ourselves into economic ruin?

LIKE IT OR NOT, YOU CANNOT GET BOTH WISHES.
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Old 8th February 2018, 04:55 PM   #398
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Since the Republicans got a tax cut, it's only fair for the Democrats to get spending increases.......and of course since all the Democrats' spending increases are domestic, it's only fair that the Republicans get some defense spending increases for the Republicans.

Cut taxes. Raise spending. What could go wrong?
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Old 9th February 2018, 08:05 PM   #399
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Deficits only matter when a Democrat is POTUS. When a Republican is POTUS, the GOP doesn't care about the deficit, in fact they try to explode the deficit with tax cuts and military spending.
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Old 12th February 2018, 04:42 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Deficits only matter when a Democrat is POTUS. When a Republican is POTUS, the GOP doesn't care about the deficit, in fact they try to explode the deficit with tax cuts and military spending.
Because deep down they know that eventually the democrats will regain power and have to play bad cop, trying to dig the country out of debt. Just as they start seeing success, another republican will come along and piss it all away again.

Sorry, the veil is slipping some...
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