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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , donald trump , lying charges , Russia conspiracies , Trump controversies , Trump-Russia connections , US-Russia relations , vladimir putin

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Old 25th December 2017, 10:40 AM   #161
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
That is beside the point. We are not speculating about the best approach to determine the truth in the light of obstruction - something that is not amenable to peer review anyway. We are speculating why an investigator with experience of investigating organised criminals is bringing lesser charges than he could against Flynn. Pointing out that this is how the FBI typically operates against organised criminals says nothing about whether this is the best approach.

If you want to discuss whether this is the best approach, that would be a derail, but given that the aim is to find out what happened, and the fact that this has worked in persuading lesser criminals to provide evidence against greater criminals, it does seem effective.
I'm not arguing what is the best approach. I'm arguing that without a study on what the FBI does, we don't actually know that the FBI does what they say. The claims they do X is anecdote.


ETA: the first piece you quoted was not an argument about quality of work. It was an example of how you can be a good prosecutor while having unreasonable positions not supported by evidence. That is why claims by an attorney that attorneys do X carries little weight. They suffer from the same biases as everyone else.

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Old 25th December 2017, 11:05 AM   #162
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From the Bill Moyer's link, this is worth reviewing:
Quote:
1980: Roger Stone founds a lobbying practice with Paul Manafort, who is a childhood friend. Trump becomes one of Stone’s first clients. In the 1980s, Trump hires Manafort as a lobbyist on gambling and real-estate issues. By 1988, Stone is one of Trump’s closest advisers.
Didn't Trump make a big deal trying to distance himself from Manafort?

Remember, Manafort is charged with money laundering.

Quote:
David Bogatin, a 38-year-old former Soviet Army pilot and Russian émigré who arrived in America seven years earlier with just $3 in his pocket, pays $6 million for five condominium units in a luxurious new Manhattan high-rise, Trump Tower. At the time, Russian mobsters were beginning to invest in high-end US real estate as a way to launder money from their criminal enterprises.
Knee deep in the Big Muddy but the big fool says to push on:
Quote:
1987: In connection with Trump’s request to build a new casino in Sydney, Australia, the New South Wales Police Board issues its confidential report on whether Trump has the required “sound repute, probity and integrity” for the project. The report discourages working with Trump, bringing up Trump’s ties to the Mafia.
Quote:
1991: Trump Is Deep in Debt
In the opening episode of The Apprentice on Jan. 8, 2004, Trump says, “About 13 years ago, I was seriously in trouble. I was billions of dollars in debt.”
Waist deep in the Big Muddy and the old fool said to push on.
Quote:
In 1996, Trump visits Moscow with his longtime friend Howard Lorber, an American businessman who, according to Trump, has significant investments in Russia. There, the two men scout potential locations for a major Trump project.

“We are actually looking at something in Moscow right now,” Trump tells The New Yorker a few months later. “And it would be skyscrapers and hotels, not casinos… And we’re working with the local government, the mayor of Moscow and the mayor’s people. So far, they’ve been very responsive.”

The same year as that visit — 1996 — Trump applies for his trademark in Russia. Discussing ambitions for a Trump hotel in 2007, he declares, “We will be in Moscow at some point.”
Trump has been involved with the Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs for decades. It is absurd for Trump to say he has no Russia connections. He's neck deep.
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Old 25th December 2017, 11:52 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I'm not arguing what is the best approach. I'm arguing that without a study on what the FBI does, we don't actually know that the FBI does what they say. The claims they do X is anecdote.


ETA: the first piece you quoted was not an argument about quality of work. It was an example of how you can be a good prosecutor while having unreasonable positions not supported by evidence. That is why claims by an attorney that attorneys do X carries little weight. They suffer from the same biases as everyone else.
Er. We have evidence that the FBI uses this strategy from every organised crime trial with plea-bargains where the lesser criminals plead guilty to lesser charges in return for giving evidence against their criminal superiors.

You would be right if we were arguing that this is the only strategy that the FBI pursued or that this was the only strategy that Muller was using, but nobody is saying this.

Some techniques are, by their nature, obvious to the public once they are used. Plea bargains are like this.
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Old 25th December 2017, 11:56 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Er. We have evidence that the FBI uses this strategy from every organised crime trial with plea-bargains where the lesser criminals plead guilty to lesser charges in return for giving evidence against their criminal superiors.

You would be right if we were arguing that this is the only strategy that the FBI pursued or that this was the only strategy that Muller was using, but nobody is saying this.

Some techniques are, by their nature, obvious to the public once they are used. Plea bargains are like this.
Or confirmation bias is affecting our ability to put that into context and thinking it is more often used as part of a strategy rather than "the best we can get."
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Old 25th December 2017, 12:45 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Or confirmation bias is affecting our ability to put that into context and thinking it is more often used as part of a strategy rather than "the best we can get."
You are making no sense. The FBI uses plea bargains. We have court transcripts demonstrating this. That is a strategy that is fairly easy to understand -it is not a difficult concept, and it is obviously used.

Whether it is the best strategy is a different question.

Whether it is the best understanding for what is happening in this investigation is a reasonable question. There is sufficient evidence in the public domain that the FBI are using this strategy - the court dispositions show this, and explaining that Papadopolous has been cooperating, for example.


Scepticism does not require one to reject everything out of hand. If there is a simple explanation that fits with the known facts, and no reason to believe otherwise, it is reasonable to work on the assumption that this is the correct explanation unless contrary evidence comes to light.
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Old 25th December 2017, 01:15 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
You are making no sense. The FBI uses plea bargains. We have court transcripts demonstrating this. That is a strategy that is fairly easy to understand -it is not a difficult concept, and it is obviously used.

Whether it is the best strategy is a different question.

Whether it is the best understanding for what is happening in this investigation is a reasonable question. There is sufficient evidence in the public domain that the FBI are using this strategy - the court dispositions show this, and explaining that Papadopolous has been cooperating, for example.


Scepticism does not require one to reject everything out of hand. If there is a simple explanation that fits with the known facts, and no reason to believe otherwise, it is reasonable to work on the assumption that this is the correct explanation unless contrary evidence comes to light.
I never argued they didn't use plea bargains. I'm arguing that the assumptions made here about their use to gather greater evidence are not appropriate.

For federal charges, 8% are dismissed, 2.8% go to trial. 89% are plea bargained. Of course they are not all used to make better cases against bigger fish. To assume it was a strategy of gathering more evidence is not something we can know without diving into that 89% further. And the words of a former prosecutor are not helpful.

As to your claim of skepticism. It is completely unreasonable to operate under that assumption. There is simply no reason for anyone posting in this thread to operate under any assumptions on this issue.

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Old 25th December 2017, 02:32 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
You are making no sense. The FBI uses plea bargains. We have court transcripts demonstrating this. That is a strategy that is fairly easy to understand -it is not a difficult concept, and it is obviously used.

Whether it is the best strategy is a different question.

Whether it is the best understanding for what is happening in this investigation is a reasonable question. There is sufficient evidence in the public domain that the FBI are using this strategy - the court dispositions show this, and explaining that Papadopolous has been cooperating, for example.


Scepticism does not require one to reject everything out of hand. If there is a simple explanation that fits with the known facts, and no reason to believe otherwise, it is reasonable to work on the assumption that this is the correct explanation unless contrary evidence comes to light.
Bob never said he was trying to make sense or that anyone should care if he does.
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Old 25th December 2017, 02:48 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
Bob never said he was trying to make sense or that anyone should care if he does.
There is a term for someone who posts things on a serious message board that are not supposed to make sense or be cared about.

Someone who interrupts a serious discussion with things even he doesn't claim make sense, or who interrupts a serious discussion to say things not meant to be believed or considered even though they are written in a style and form indistinguishable from serious contributions- how is that not the epitome of being a troll?
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Old 25th December 2017, 02:51 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
Bob never said he was trying to make sense or that anyone should care if he does.
Originally Posted by beren View Post
There is a term for someone who posts things on a serious message board that are not supposed to make sense or be cared about.

Someone who interrupts a serious discussion with things even he doesn't claim make sense, or who interrupts a serious discussion to say things not meant to be believed or considered even though they are written in a style and form indistinguishable from serious contributions- how is that not the epitome of being a troll?
He's not doing it by himself.
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Old 25th December 2017, 02:57 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by beren View Post

Someone who interrupts a serious discussion with things even he doesn't claim make sense, or who interrupts a serious discussion to say things not meant to be believed or considered even though they are written in a style and form indistinguishable from serious contributions- how is that not the epitome of being a troll?
I am not self deluded. I know the limits of my ability to communicate effectively and the limits of having people consider your opinions. I scale my expectations appropriately. The height of audacity is to claim your argument makes sense and that you expect people to consider it.
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Old 25th December 2017, 03:16 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I am not self deluded. I know the limits of my ability to communicate effectively and the limits of having people consider your opinions. I scale my expectations appropriately. The height of audacity is to claim your argument makes sense and that you expect people to consider it.
The height of audacity is to speak when you yourself don't think your argument makes sense.
The the height of audacity is to interrupt a conversation to pay things you don't expect people to even consider.
Seriously, why are you here? If your comments aren't meant to be sensical and aren't expected to be considered, what purpose do they serve other than to troll?

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Old 25th December 2017, 03:29 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by beren View Post
The height of audacity is to speak when you yourself don't think your argument makes sense.
The the height of audacity is to interrupt a conversation to pay things you don't expect people to even consider.
Seriously, why are you here? If your comments aren't meant to be sensical and aren't expected to be considered, what purpose do they serve other than to troll?

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People's comments here are nonsensical and haven't earned an expectation to be considered (most things cant earn expectation of consideration outside of things like your boss or spouse). I'm not going to pretend I'm exceptional.
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Old 25th December 2017, 03:51 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
People's comments here are nonsensical and haven't earned an expectation to be considered (most things cant earn expectation of consideration outside of things like your boss or spouse). I'm not going to pretend I'm exceptional.
Poppycock.
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Old 25th December 2017, 04:30 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I am not self deluded. I know the limits of my ability to communicate effectively and the limits of having people consider your opinions. I scale my expectations appropriately. The height of audacity is to claim your argument makes sense and that you expect people to consider it.
It's not your ability to communicate that is the problem. You fail because your ideas are immoral. If you could communicate better it wouldn't matter because what you are communicating is base, vile and despicable. No amount of communication will make what you believe moral. I know you don't believe your ideas are immoral but that doesn't stop them from being so.
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Old 25th December 2017, 06:17 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Or confirmation bias is affecting our ability to put that into context and thinking it is more often used as part of a strategy rather than "the best we can get."
The Plea Bargain must be taken in context with the Investigation, such a leniant sentence, and the Fact Flynn is cooperating with Mueller, Imply that Flynn is turning over providing evidence on someone higher up.
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Old 25th December 2017, 06:41 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Now, here is some of the empirical stuff

https://scholar.google.com/scholar_l...n+legislatures
Okay, I'm convinced, at least for computer-generated districts based only on contiguity and compactness. But that doesn't mean it's unavoidable for manually constructed districts. What that implies is that redistricting laws or rules should also consider proportional representation as a goal, and it should be more important than compactness.
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Old 25th December 2017, 07:10 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Okay, I'm convinced, at least for computer-generated districts based only on contiguity and compactness. But that doesn't mean it's unavoidable for manually constructed districts. What that implies is that redistricting laws or rules should also consider proportional representation as a goal, and it should be more important than compactness.
I guess it depends on if a district should be an arbitrary construct only to serve for election goals or it should be a "community of interest." As your article mentions making districts of urban, suburban, and rural in the same district, it is making a purposeful effort to not group urban groups together.

Of course, none of this matters if a state went with party list elections.

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Old 26th December 2017, 01:26 AM   #178
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The Guardian propagandist Luke Harding went on The Real News to talk about his new book "Collusion". I posted a critical review last week. I don't think it was a good idea for Luke to go where real journalists, not "story-tellers" live, but maybe it looks differently from another perspective. Half an hour:

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Old 26th December 2017, 06:06 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The Guardian propagandist Luke Harding went on The Real News to talk about his new book "Collusion". I posted a critical review last week. I don't think it was a good idea for Luke to go where real journalists, not "story-tellers" live, but maybe it looks differently from another perspective. Half an hour:

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Skeptics demand evidence; so do pseudo-skeptics but they ignore it. We don't know (yet) what TrumpCo is trying so desperately to hide, but the circumstantial evidence keeps piling up:

Interactive Timeline: Everything We Know About Russia and President Trump

So this is unsurprising:AP poll: Most Americans believe Trump did something illegal or unethical with Russia

Quote:
Most people believe Trump is trying to obstruct the investigations, which have resulted in charges against four of his campaign advisers and increasingly appear focused on the president's inner circle.

Four in 10 Americans think the president has done something illegal when it comes to Russia, while an additional 3 in 10 say he's at least done something unethical. And 68 percent disapprove of his response to the investigations.
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Old 26th December 2017, 06:53 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Skeptics demand evidence; so do pseudo-skeptics but they ignore it. We don't know (yet) what TrumpCo is trying so desperately to hide, but the circumstantial evidence keeps piling up:

Interactive Timeline: Everything We Know About Russia and President Trump

So this is unsurprising:AP poll: Most Americans believe Trump did something illegal or unethical with Russia
You talk about circumstantial evidence is piling up because you lack direct evidence or strong circumstantial evidence. It would be real nice if you could present that.
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Old 26th December 2017, 07:22 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
You talk about circumstantial evidence is piling up because you lack direct evidence or strong circumstantial evidence. It would be real nice if you could present that.
Are you missing the point on purpose? That circumstantial evidence is why Mueller's investigation needs to run to completion.
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Old 26th December 2017, 07:25 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Are you missing the point on purpose? That circumstantial evidence is why Mueller's investigation needs to run to completion.
I'm making a related point. It would be really nice if you had better evidence right now. I thought that was a point you would agree with.

I don't know if I have given an opinion on the investigation.
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Old 26th December 2017, 07:37 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I'm making a related point. It would be really nice if you had better evidence right now. I thought that was a point you would agree with.

I don't know if I have given an opinion on the investigation.
Yeah, "related points" are your specialty.
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Old 26th December 2017, 07:46 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Yeah, "related points" are your specialty.
Why is the circumstantial evidence that the investigation should go to completion?
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Old 26th December 2017, 07:59 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Why is the circumstantial evidence that the investigation should go to completion?
Because we are not Russia.
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Old 26th December 2017, 08:03 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Because we are not Russia.
I don't follow.
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Old 27th December 2017, 08:20 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The Guardian propagandist Luke Harding went on The Real News to talk about his new book "Collusion". I posted a critical review last week. I don't think it was a good idea for Luke to go where real journalists, not "story-tellers" live, but maybe it looks differently from another perspective. Half an hour:

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And did you actually read the book Collusion?

Or are you once again simply parroting other stupid sources?
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Old 27th December 2017, 10:10 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
And did you actually read the book Collusion?

Or are you once again simply parroting other stupid sources?

Hahaha, reading a Luke Harding book? Dude, you must be joking. That guy has quite a history (that I know and you apparently don't) which makes it absolutely revealing that he is still allowed to write for the Guardian. They should have kicked him out after he stole real journalists' work back in Moscow before he had his paranoid breakdown. Ask Mark Ames. Could have been their last apology for that clown. As I mentioned earlier, that's the man who caused all the Manning cables landing on the internet unredacted after he printed the password in one of his other laughable books, making money off of wikileaks. Keep that in mind while you watch his freaky visage squirm in the video.
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Old 27th December 2017, 10:36 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Hahaha, reading a Luke Harding book? Dude, you must be joking. That guy has quite a history (that I know and you apparently don't) which makes it absolutely revealing that he is still allowed to write for the Guardian. They should have kicked him out after he stole real journalists' work back in Moscow before he had his paranoid breakdown. Ask Mark Ames. Could have been their last apology for that clown. As I mentioned earlier, that's the man who caused all the Manning cables landing on the internet unredacted after he printed the password in one of his other laughable books, making money off of wikileaks. Keep that in mind while you watch his freaky visage squirm in the video.
Unlike you, I actually did read the book and I thought that it was quite good.

Therefore, if you can ever manage to figure out what it is that you are bitching about, then please let the rest of us know.
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Old 27th December 2017, 11:08 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Hahaha, reading a Luke Harding book? Dude, you must be joking. That guy has quite a history (that I know and you apparently don't) which makes it absolutely revealing that he is still allowed to write for the Guardian. They should have kicked him out after he stole real journalists' work back in Moscow before he had his paranoid breakdown. Ask Mark Ames. Could have been their last apology for that clown. As I mentioned earlier, that's the man who caused all the Manning cables landing on the internet unredacted after he printed the password in one of his other laughable books, making money off of wikileaks. Keep that in mind while you watch his freaky visage squirm in the video.
Sorry, I haven't been watching the RT History channel -- are you implying that Harding stole the Collusion stuff from some other journalist?
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Old 27th December 2017, 11:27 AM   #191
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I thought bringing up the past work and honesty of people being cited was "weakmindedness", nothing but an "ad hominem" and "sinking to their level"? Seems that's only true when the person being spoken about is someone Childlike Empress agrees with.
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Old 27th December 2017, 11:35 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I thought bringing up the past work and honesty of people being cited was "weakmindedness", nothing but an "ad hominem" and "sinking to their level"? Seems that's only true when the person being spoken about is someone Childlike Empress agrees with.
Seconded!

While I have by no means examined every posting that 'Childlike Empress' has ever made, however I have noticed that every time she issues a citation to support her various ideas, the citation is always crap.

It sure is a shame that even in this day and age, there are still people who refuse to learn that crap information does not somehow turn crap conclusions into valid conclusions.
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Old 27th December 2017, 11:44 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Hahaha, reading a Luke Harding book?

<snip>

You "reviewed" a book you haven't read?

That puts you in the same class as fundi religious wackos who protest against movies they've never seen.

Good company for you.
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Old 27th December 2017, 11:48 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
Unlike you, I actually did read the book and I thought that it was quite good.

No surprise there. I suspect some others who have been quiet had it under the Christmas tree as well. After all the cover says "#1 NYT bestseller". Which is why I posted about him in the first place. If this and that creative writing twitter guru are your best informers, good luck in 2018. You'll need it.
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Old 27th December 2017, 11:53 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
You "reviewed" a book you haven't read?

That puts you in the same class as fundi religious wackos who protest against movies they've never seen.

Good company for you.

I didn't review it. I posted a review of it, and I posted a half an hour interview with the author by a guy who admits in the interview that he didn't read the book as well. Somehow it still doesn't go like Luke expected, and I invite you to claim that it was a technically bad interview. I can post a couple of reviews of the interview, if you want. Just none with that opinion. Not even close. Half an hour of Luke in person is just worth 23 million Russian trolls. Putin could raise the minimum wage again now with all that spared money.
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Old 27th December 2017, 12:01 PM   #196
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Sorry, I haven't been watching the RT History channel -- are you implying that Harding stole the Collusion stuff from some other journalist?

No, he stole material from the subversive English-language Moscow-based eXile magazine back in the days when he was The Guardian's Moscow correspondent and published it there under his name. It was so obvious that the propaganda rag even apologized. Harding then fled Moscow in a hilarious nervous breakdown (he wasn't "kicked out" like he claims in the video).
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Old 27th December 2017, 12:08 PM   #197
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
No surprise there. I suspect some others who have been quiet had it under the Christmas tree as well. After all the cover says "#1 NYT bestseller". Which is why I posted about him in the first place. If this and that creative writing twitter guru are your best informers, good luck in 2018. You'll need it.
Good luck with what? Indicting some more TrumpCo people? I'd guess that Mueller doesn't need their help. Convincing most Americans that the Trump/Russian connection stinks? Done. Winning Congress? They don't need luck to win the House, at least, and that will be enough to stop the "Trump agenda" until 2020, even without impeachment.

But good luck with Mark Basile finding those thermite chips in 2018.
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Old 27th December 2017, 12:10 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
No, he stole material from the subversive English-language Moscow-based eXile magazine back in the days when he was The Guardian's Moscow correspondent and published it there under his name. It was so obvious that the propaganda rag even apologized. Harding then fled Moscow in a hilarious nervous breakdown (he wasn't "kicked out" like he claims in the video).
And your point is... ? No Collusion?
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Old 27th December 2017, 12:18 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Good luck with what?

With your RussiaGate CT. You can pretend to have all forgotten about the boomerang, but that doesn't erase it from the emerging picture. Neither do pages of impotent whining. We'll have fun.
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Old 27th December 2017, 12:33 PM   #200
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
No surprise there. I suspect some others who have been quiet had it under the Christmas tree as well. After all the cover says "#1 NYT bestseller". Which is why I posted about him in the first place. If this and that creative writing twitter guru are your best informers, good luck in 2018. You'll need it.
If you can ever figure out what it is that you are bitching about, then please let the rest of us know.
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