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Old 3rd June 2020, 11:01 AM   #2721
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
The succesful ones appear to have locked down hard at the right time, and followed the WHO advice "Test. Test.Test" as much as they were able to. The east asian nations also instituted universal mask-wearing, which seems to have helped them get even better results.

The unsuccesful nations appear to have followed the ancient wisdom of sticking your head in the sand and hope the problem goes away.
Plus contact tracing and isolation of exposed individuals.
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Old 3rd June 2020, 11:03 AM   #2722
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Yes, it will come back. It was never gone. It's highly unlikely to be eradicated by quarantine, because no matter how hard we try, people still have to interact in some capacity - food delivery, utilities, health care workers, etc. There will continue to be vectors for it pretty much until we have a vaccine.

And depending on how long immunity lasts, a vaccine may not eradicate it either. It might only reduce the impact and keep it manageable.
And, as much as I hate the idea, if that's the case, does it matter whether we continue lockdowns or end them today?

We can't live like this forever, so why not end it today?

I think the real answer is that we should end them when containment is possible to a very large degree, which means very high test capability so that when someone comes up positive, anyone near that person gets tested, and all positives get quarantined. Is that possible? Will that ever be possible?

And what ticks me off, politically, is that I don't even see that being discussed.

ETA: Our governor, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, ended the severe stay at home order, and cited robust testing capability as one justification, but I don't think it's high enough to achieve real containment. The announcement didn't come with any discussion of testing or contact tracing procedures. It was just "We're in phase four now. Stores can open up. So can offices, but we would rather you work at home if you can."

Last edited by Meadmaker; 3rd June 2020 at 11:06 AM.
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Old 3rd June 2020, 11:07 AM   #2723
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Below are charts from the Google/Wiki new cases tracker. Link Comparing Italy, Spain and the U.S. Compared to the first two, the United States is having much more difficulty getting the infection under some semblance of control. The infection rate in the U.S. is 0.56%, meaning one out of every 200 people are infected. That's a lot. Italy's infection rate is less than half that, about 0.26% Spain's infection rate is comparable to the U.S., about 0.51.

You can see all three countries, including the U.S., are trending downward. Just that Italy and Spain are doing it faster.
Probably worth noting that Spain and Italy are both roughly (very roughly) the same geographical size as California, but with quite a bit larger populations each. Population density is an important vector for spread rate. It would probably make more sense to compare specific US states, or at least regions to specific European nations. Alternatively, compare the US as a whole to a pretty large chunk of Europe, including some of the less populated regions in Eastern Europe.
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Old 3rd June 2020, 11:19 AM   #2724
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
And, as much as I hate the idea, if that's the case, does it matter whether we continue lockdowns or end them today?

We can't live like this forever, so why not end it today?

I think the real answer is that we should end them when containment is possible to a very large degree, which means very high test capability so that when someone comes up positive, anyone near that person gets tested, and all positives get quarantined. Is that possible? Will that ever be possible?

And what ticks me off, politically, is that I don't even see that being discussed.

ETA: Our governor, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, ended the severe stay at home order, and cited robust testing capability as one justification, but I don't think it's high enough to achieve real containment. The announcement didn't come with any discussion of testing or contact tracing procedures. It was just "We're in phase four now. Stores can open up. So can offices, but we would rather you work at home if you can."
From a clinical perspective, the lock-downs were never expected to eradicate COVID. The whole point was to slow down the spread rate so that hospitals don't end up over capacity. If hospitals end up over capacity, you get a lot of people dying who were treatable - both from COVID and all other illnesses and injuries. And that can be way more catastrophic than what we've seen so far.

I agree that it can't go no forever. There are economic impacts to consider, and people losing their livelihoods and their incomes face equal, if not as acute, a health and well-being risk as COVID presents. Even aside from that, however... there's a mental health aspect that is a lot more important than a lot of people give consideration to. We're a herd species. We're social animals. Even the most introverted of us (me!) actually do need some degree of social interaction. Faces on a screen are helpful, but it's really not a replacement for personal engagement. The longer we try to stay isolated from our herds, the more fatigued we get, and the more mental and emotional strain there is. At some point... yeah, people are just going to throw in the towel and decide it's not worth it to them.

It creates a pretty nasty catch-22, because when one person decides "screw it", they're making that decision for everyone else that they come into contact with too, not just for themselves.

The best option, realistically, is for masks to become standard wear and to institute rigorous contact tracing and isolation.

Masks are probably doable for most of us, even though they're uncomfortable and awkward and really suck when it's currently 108F outside. And at least some people have problems with masks, similar to claustrophobia.

Contact tracing is another big challenge. The US doesn't have a viable technology for it at the moment, in part because of how fractured our health care system is. Beyond that, the US, as well as a fair bit of Europe, tends to be pretty privacy oriented, and convincing people to make their cell-phones traceable and available for tracing is a big hurdle unless you can convince us that it's anonymized and private.

My best bet is that we'll end up with a combination approach for a while. First, anyone who can continue to work from home and limit their exposure to other people should do so. Second, for people whose jobs can't realistically be done from home, frequent testing and tracing. Even with that, there are probably a lot of things that should just be indefinitely on hold - concerts, large gatherings, etc. And there's still a high likelihood that we'll end up with cyclic lock-downs until we have a vaccine or a highly effective treatment.
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Old 3rd June 2020, 11:20 AM   #2725
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Sorry for the giant WoT, Meadmaker
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Old 3rd June 2020, 03:54 PM   #2726
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Florida reports 1,317 new COVID-19 cases. The highest since April 17.
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Old 3rd June 2020, 09:26 PM   #2727
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
And, as much as I hate the idea, if that's the case, does it matter whether we continue lockdowns or end them today?

We can't live like this forever, so why not end it today?
Don't talk about 'ending' it, talk about relaxing restrictions. It's quite possible to live perpetually under a partial lockdown, and in fact most places that 'ended it' haven't really ended it.

Quote:
Our governor, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, ended the severe stay at home order, and cited robust testing capability as one justification, but I don't think it's high enough to achieve real containment. The announcement didn't come with any discussion of testing or contact tracing procedures. It was just "We're in phase four now. Stores can open up. So can offices, but we would rather you work at home if you can."
The number of new infections is way down, so it should be OK if people take proper precautions (basically, everyone treats themselves and others as if they are infected). So yes, stores and offices should be able to open up, but people should limit their exposure as much as possible.

Originally Posted by Emily's Cat
From a clinical perspective, the lock-downs were never expected to eradicate COVID. The whole point was to slow down the spread rate so that hospitals don't end up over capacity. If hospitals end up over capacity, you get a lot of people dying who were treatable - both from COVID and all other illnesses and injuries. And that can be way more catastrophic than what we've seen so far.
Weak measures give weak results. It only takes a few weeks of true lockdown to stop the virus. But Michigan made the same mistake as most other states, they reacted too late.

Had they locked down on say March 12 instead of March 23, things would have been a lot better. The other issue is that the lockdown was clearly not airtight. Covid-19 has an average incubation period of 7-10 days, so after a month there should have been practically no new cases. In reality it's taken over two months to get close, which means they had to endure lockdown for twice as long with a much worse result - because they hesitated.

Quote:
Yes, it will come back. It was never gone. It's highly unlikely to be eradicated by quarantine, because no matter how hard we try, people still have to interact in some capacity - food delivery, utilities, health care workers, etc. There will continue to be vectors for it pretty much until we have a vaccine.
That's not true. It will always be with us only if we don't try hard enough. Interaction can take place without transmitting the virus if it is done properly. The only reason it isn't is that people are not sufficiently afraid of the virus to take proper precautions. Even without an official lockdown we could eliminate the virus in just a few weeks - if we put our minds to it.
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Old 4th June 2020, 11:09 AM   #2728
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The New Yorker magazine has an interesting article this week about battling coronavirus in Iceland. Iceland? Yes, Iceland.
Quote:
“The numbers in the beginning were terrible,” [Director of Health Alma] Möller said. She attributed the country’s success in bringing the caseload down in part to having got an early start. The “trio,” along with officials from Iceland’s university hospital, had begun meeting back in January. “We saw what was going on in China,” she recalled. “We saw the pictures of people lying dead in emergency departments, even on the street. So it was obvious that something terrible was happening. And, of course, we didn’t know if it would spread to other countries. But we didn’t dare take the chance. So we started preparing.”...Möller pulled up a series of graphs and charts on her laptop. These showed that, per capita, Iceland had had more COVID-19 cases than any other Scandinavian country, and more than even Italy or Britain. link to article
What I found most interesting was how the disease spread in Iceland:
Quote:
Meanwhile, deCODE was also sequencing the virus from every Icelander whose test had come back positive. As the virus is passed from person to person, it picks up random mutations. By analyzing these, geneticists can map the disease’s spread. At the beginning of the outbreak, travellers returning to Iceland from the Italian Alps seemed to be the primary source of infections. But researchers at deCODE found that, while attention had been focussed on Italy, the virus had been quietly slipping into the country from several other nations, including Britain. Travellers from the West Coast of the U.S. had brought in one strain, and travellers from the East Coast another. The East Coast strain had been imported to America from Italy or Austria, then exported back to Europe.
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Old 4th June 2020, 11:19 AM   #2729
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That IS interesting. Technical achievement like that should have happened here but we have leadership that knows best about everything (or thinks they do).
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Old 4th June 2020, 12:00 PM   #2730
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
The other issue is that the lockdown was clearly not airtight. Covid-19 has an average incubation period of 7-10 days, so after a month there should have been practically no new cases. In reality it's taken over two months to get close, which means they had to endure lockdown for twice as long with a much worse result - because they hesitated.
I respect your passion, but I don't think it's possible to do an airtight perfect lockdown. Not with sacrificing a LOT of people's lives to things other than COVID, anyway. People who already had COVID still needed to be treated, so health care workers - and their families - will still be exposed. People with other illnesses and injuries still need to be treated, so health care workers and their families will be exposed to that too. Domestic violence is still going to happen, along with a variety of other crimes, so police and their families will continue to be exposed. Things still catch fire, so firemen and their families will still be exposed. People still need to pick up the trash, fix plumbing leaks, make sure the electricity is running, and all those other utilities. People still need to eat - which means that farmers still need to farm and harvest and slaughter, and food processing and packaging companies still need to operate, and delivery services still need to operate, and grocery stores still need to operate.

All of those provide vectors. All of those are ways that people must interact if we're to avoid widespread starvation and death from things that haven't plagued civilization in millennia.
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Old 4th June 2020, 02:10 PM   #2731
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Michigan, once number 2 in infections, has slipped to number 9, being passed by Florida recently. The states that have passed us seem to be states that ended lockdowns earlier.

Our lockdown order has been lifted, although not completely, and I was a little bit confused by exactly what is and isn't legal now. I just hope that doesn't lead to a big reversal in the trend. Our numbers really had dropped.

We haven't been told when we are going back to the office, but my guess is I will be back there on the 22nd. I'm hoping that is enough time that if there is a sudden spike in cases, they can call of the return.
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Old 4th June 2020, 05:59 PM   #2732
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
I respect your passion, but I don't think it's possible to do an airtight perfect lockdown. Not with sacrificing a LOT of people's lives to things other than COVID, anyway. People who already had COVID still needed to be treated, so health care workers - and their families - will still be exposed.
There are ways to deal with this. Healthcare workers can be protected from exposure, and they can stay isolated from their families. Of course the more patients there are the harder it gets, but it's still possible to avoid being infected. We have the technology, we have the resources, we have the knowledge. The only thing we don't have is the willpower.

Quote:
Domestic violence is still going to happen, along with a variety of other crimes, so police and their families will continue to be exposed. Things still catch fire, so firemen and their families will still be exposed. People still need to pick up the trash, fix plumbing leaks, make sure the electricity is running, and all those other utilities. People still need to eat - which means that farmers still need to farm and harvest and slaughter, and food processing and packaging companies still need to operate, and delivery services still need to operate, and grocery stores still need to operate.
All of these services can be provided without spreading the virus - if we put our minds to it.

Of course if you just tell everyone to lock down and expect the 'free market' to sort it out then the result will be failure.

But if the government organizes production and distribution of essential products, giving good advice and strong support to the businesses that provide them, then they can still do their jobs safely. Firemen can still put out fires without being exposed by simply using the equipment they already have. With a few tweaks to procedures, trash can still be picked up, water and electricity maintained etc. while other non-essential services are put on hold.

Domestic violence may go up because abusers can't get out of the house (which can be dealt with by expanding existing services or more drastic means), but crime in general should come down - and be much easier to control when nobody is on the streets. And of course a lot of 'crimes' could just go unpunished for now, as the police concentrate on stopping the worse crime of spreading the virus.

The only problem is that it requires a change in attitude - which many Americans are not good at doing. They don't like being told what to do, and they especially don't like their precious 'freedoms' being restricted (even for the best of reasons). But if we had a strong competent government with good messaging then the vast majority would see sense and willingly step up to do their bit.

Shocking isn't it? There are times when working together for the common good is more important than personal freedom and the pursuit of profit. But to many Americans that's Communism, the root of all evil! So everyone gets hurt and people have to die because we are ideologically incapable of doing the right thing.

Quote:
All of those provide vectors. All of those are ways that people must interact if we're to avoid widespread starvation and death from things that haven't plagued civilization in millennia.
No, they only provide vectors if we let them. So much of what we do is already mechanized and computerized to the point where human hands barely touch it, so we just need to eliminate the few vectors that are left. Avoid anyone who could be infected (which means everybody) clean stuff before and after using it, don't congregate in enclosed spaces, wash your hands etc. Anyone should be able to do that stuff without special training.
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Old 4th June 2020, 06:39 PM   #2733
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Lots of chatter sharing stories about increasing rates as protests rage. I wonder what was going on 10-14 days ago. Surely not holiday weekend activities...

I see lots of masks at the outdoor protests.

I recognize this is still an increased risk.

But the current uptick (if it is an uptick) goes squarely in the patriotic partygoers column.
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Old 4th June 2020, 07:06 PM   #2734
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Here's a line from Governor Whitmer's most recent executive order.

"Supplies of N95 masks and surgical masks should generally be reserved, for now, for health care professionals, first responders (e.g., police officers, fire fighters, paramedics), and other critical workers who interact with the public."


WTF? Three months in and I still can't find a mask that will actually protect me, as opposed to protecting everyone else around me. I'll still wear a cloth mask, because I want to encourage everyone else to wear one, but I would feel a lot better with a mask that I knew would actually do me some good in case someone near me is infected. I've thought about what to do as Michigan opens up. Will I go to the hardware store? More frequent trips to the grocery store? Dare I say it to a book store or a game store or one of those places I sometimes went to....for fun? I'd feel a lot better about it with an N95 mask, but there still aren't enough of them. On Amazon, they're prioritized for health care providers. Home Depot and Ace Hardware say none available. Supply still hasn't caught up with demand.

It's ridiculous, and yes, it is Trump's fault.
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Old 4th June 2020, 07:18 PM   #2735
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Is it really that simple?

What I have been wondering is whether, no matter how long we waited, would the virus come back? ....
Contract tracing would be very useful, but essentially without a vaccine, as soon as we let our guard down, the virus will spring up again.
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Old 4th June 2020, 07:23 PM   #2736
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
And, as much as I hate the idea, if that's the case, does it matter whether we continue lockdowns or end them today?

We can't live like this forever, so why not end it today?
Yes it matters, supressing the virus matters. As for it lasting forever, that's the language of impatient ignorant masses. There are a 100 different vaccines under development and billions already invested in production when a vaccine is ready.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think the real answer is that we should end them when containment is possible to a very large degree, which means very high test capability so that when someone comes up positive, anyone near that person gets tested, and all positives get quarantined. Is that possible? Will that ever be possible?

And what ticks me off, politically, is that I don't even see that being discussed.
What's to discuss?

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
ETA: Our governor, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, ended the severe stay at home order, and cited robust testing capability as one justification, but I don't think it's high enough to achieve real containment. The announcement didn't come with any discussion of testing or contact tracing procedures. It was just "We're in phase four now. Stores can open up. So can offices, but we would rather you work at home if you can."
Can speak for Michigan. Take a look at WA State's plan.
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Old 4th June 2020, 07:25 PM   #2737
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Florida reports 1,317 new COVID-19 cases. The highest since April 17.
Surprise Guv, it's not going away because you lie about it going away.
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Old 4th June 2020, 08:01 PM   #2738
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
There are ways to deal with this. Healthcare workers can be protected from exposure, and they can stay isolated from their families. ...
Oh sure because that's so easy.
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Old 4th June 2020, 08:20 PM   #2739
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Yes it matters, suppressing the virus matters...
It definitely matters. Without a vaccine/effective treatment there is no other way to control it. Four of the five states that were in the news as being among the first to 're-open' (Arizona, Florida, Texas and Wisconsin) are all now showing an upward trend in new cases. The fifth is Georgia, which seems to be on a plateau but which also has a history of under reporting and reporting unreliable numbers.

Google/Wiki tracker

As for Gov. Whitmer, we know she is certainly under a lot of political pressure to ease the restrictions. Not just from rifle-toting militia men but from state Republicans, too. When I looked at Worldometer --(Link) -- Michigan was 17th in active cases, 15th in the total number of cases per million population and 32nd in new cases.
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Old 4th June 2020, 08:37 PM   #2740
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
The New Yorker magazine has an interesting article this week about battling coronavirus in Iceland. Iceland? Yes, Iceland.


What I found most interesting was how the disease spread in Iceland:
A government that cares about it's citizens, keeps an eye on what is brewing in the world, and acts decisively when a problem arises. It sounds so simple, but is just so very hard to achieve in so many countries.
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Old 4th June 2020, 08:39 PM   #2741
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
I respect your passion, but I don't think it's possible to do an airtight perfect lockdown. Not with sacrificing a LOT of people's lives to things other than COVID, anyway. People who already had COVID still needed to be treated, so health care workers - and their families - will still be exposed. People with other illnesses and injuries still need to be treated, so health care workers and their families will be exposed to that too. Domestic violence is still going to happen, along with a variety of other crimes, so police and their families will continue to be exposed. Things still catch fire, so firemen and their families will still be exposed. People still need to pick up the trash, fix plumbing leaks, make sure the electricity is running, and all those other utilities. People still need to eat - which means that farmers still need to farm and harvest and slaughter, and food processing and packaging companies still need to operate, and delivery services still need to operate, and grocery stores still need to operate.

All of those provide vectors. All of those are ways that people must interact if we're to avoid widespread starvation and death from things that haven't plagued civilization in millennia.
But it is possible to do a "good-enough" lockdown to essentially eliminate the virus. We know this is to true. It's been done in multiple countries. Not just New Zealand; admittedly being an island with a small initial outbreak and a largely sparse population helps. But also in other countries, including those with none of those benefits, such as South Korea and even China.

Apparently a well designed "lock down"policy with a consistent and convincing message and strong social pressure (or very strong government enforcement ) can drive R down enough that subsequent testing, contact tracing, and isolation works very well.
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Old 4th June 2020, 08:44 PM   #2742
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Lots of chatter sharing stories about increasing rates as protests rage. I wonder what was going on 10-14 days ago. Surely not holiday weekend activities...

I see lots of masks at the outdoor protests.

I recognize this is still an increased risk.

But the current uptick (if it is an uptick) goes squarely in the patriotic partygoers column.
My concern focuses on the arrest of the protestors. The holding facilities/jails are probably communal, crowded, and I doubt masks are permitted. It seems both dangerous and extra unfair to submit people to these conditions.
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Old 4th June 2020, 09:21 PM   #2743
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Here's a line from Governor Whitmer's most recent executive order.

"Supplies of N95 masks and surgical masks should generally be reserved, for now, for health care professionals, first responders (e.g., police officers, fire fighters, paramedics), and other critical workers who interact with the public."


WTF? Three months in and I still can't find a mask that will actually protect me, as opposed to protecting everyone else around me. I'll still wear a cloth mask, because I want to encourage everyone else to wear one, but I would feel a lot better with a mask that I knew would actually do me some good in case someone near me is infected. I've thought about what to do as Michigan opens up. Will I go to the hardware store? More frequent trips to the grocery store? Dare I say it to a book store or a game store or one of those places I sometimes went to....for fun? I'd feel a lot better about it with an N95 mask, but there still aren't enough of them. On Amazon, they're prioritized for health care providers. Home Depot and Ace Hardware say none available. Supply still hasn't caught up with demand.

It's ridiculous, and yes, it is Trump's fault.

And it probably won't until people quit buying everything that comes available until all their closets/basements/garages are full.

Toilet paper is still a scarce commodity for crying out loud. I guess it will be until literally everyone has a decade's worth stashed away.
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Old 4th June 2020, 09:56 PM   #2744
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
And it probably won't until people quit buying everything that comes available until all their closets/basements/garages are full.

Toilet paper is still a scarce commodity for crying out loud. I guess it will be until literally everyone has a decade's worth stashed away.
Mmm... not exactly? To put it a bit differently, about 40% of the TP business is commercial and almost completely separate from the "for home use" TP. Different materials, manufacturing, supply lines, etc. Also of note is that TP use/sales is extremely steady, as a general rule, which has made it safe for the producers to run things in a very lean way. 24/7 production that's pretty much at demand and and not really much more, because TP is bulky and rather low value for the bulk (which also removes a significant portion of the incentive to build lots more home use production that will only be used for a very uncertain amount of time anyways). Given the shut downs, that 40% of the normal TP usage was pretty much cut out of distribution, generating a genuine shortage that hoarders had extremely little to do with. Even if businesses are reopening and some of that commercial TP has been rerouted to home use, commercial TP use is fairly certainly not back up to normal - and even if it was, it will take time before people can replenish their stock of TP up to pre-shutdown levels again, given actual supply speed.

ETA: There are similar problems in play for many of the other things, very much including the hospital-use quality masks - because of the need to guard against COVID-19, for example, the use of those masks in hospitals increased quite dramatically from normal, if I understand it correctly - around the world, and, while mask production can be ramped up, the Trump Administration wasted months (until we were already in the "THERE'S A MAJOR SHORTAGE NOW!!!!" phase) before it even started to take any action on that front. That's before getting to the part where the action that they did take was extremely chaotic and wasteful, at best.
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Old 4th June 2020, 10:07 PM   #2745
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Mmm... not exactly? To put it a bit differently, about 40% of the TP business is commercial and almost completely separate from the "for home use" TP. Different materials, manufacturing, supply lines, etc. Also of note is that TP use/sales is extremely steady, as a general rule, which has made it safe for the producers to run things in a very lean way. 24/7 production that's pretty much at demand and and not really much more, because TP is bulky and rather low value for the bulk (which also removes a significant portion of the incentive to build lots more home use production that will only be used for a very uncertain amount of time anyways). Given the shut downs, that 40% of the normal TP usage was pretty much cut out of distribution, generating a genuine shortage that hoarders had extremely little to do with. Even if businesses are reopening and some of that commercial TP has been rerouted to home use, commercial TP use is fairly certainly not back up to normal - and even if it was, it will take time before people can replenish their stock of TP up to pre-shutdown levels again, given actual supply speed.

I hadn't thought it necessary to be so specific, but I was referring to the availability of TP in grocery stores, where shelves (at least around here) still empty out with remarkable speed and people on local social sites like NextDoor are still broadcasting to their neighbors whenever a new shipment turns up on some particular store's shelves. (Which, needless to say, doesn't help matters.)
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Old 4th June 2020, 10:11 PM   #2746
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
I hadn't thought it necessary to be so specific, but I was referring to the availability of TP in grocery stores, where shelves (at least around here) still empty out with remarkable speed and people on local social sites like NextDoor are still broadcasting to their neighbors whenever a new shipment turns up on some particular store's shelves. (Which, needless to say, doesn't help matters.)
Yes, and I was addressing that. The "for home use" is the stuff that's normally sold in grocery stores. The commercial stuff is not packaged and labelled for normal sale at stores like grocery stores, though some has been rerouted to them and workarounds have been done. The problem, overall, has MUCH more to do with actual supply compared to usage than it does with hoarders and people stocking up panic bunkers.
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Old 4th June 2020, 10:51 PM   #2747
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
A government that cares about it's citizens, keeps an eye on what is brewing in the world, and acts decisively when a problem arises. It sounds so simple, but is just so very hard to achieve in so many countries.

And a population that listens...that’s the key part. In a nation of 325+ million, that’s a big ask.
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Old 4th June 2020, 10:57 PM   #2748
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Mmm... not exactly? To put it a bit differently, about 40% of the TP business is commercial and almost completely separate from the "for home use" TP. Different materials, manufacturing, supply lines, etc. Also of note is that TP use/sales is extremely steady, as a general rule, which has made it safe for the producers to run things in a very lean way. 24/7 production that's pretty much at demand and and not really much more, because TP is bulky and rather low value for the bulk (which also removes a significant portion of the incentive to build lots more home use production that will only be used for a very uncertain amount of time anyways). Given the shut downs, that 40% of the normal TP usage was pretty much cut out of distribution, generating a genuine shortage that hoarders had extremely little to do with. Even if businesses are reopening and some of that commercial TP has been rerouted to home use, commercial TP use is fairly certainly not back up to normal - and even if it was, it will take time before people can replenish their stock of TP up to pre-shutdown levels again, given actual supply speed.

ETA: There are similar problems in play for many of the other things, very much including the hospital-use quality masks - because of the need to guard against COVID-19, for example, the use of those masks in hospitals increased quite dramatically from normal, if I understand it correctly - around the world, and, while mask production can be ramped up, the Trump Administration wasted months (until we were already in the "THERE'S A MAJOR SHORTAGE NOW!!!!" phase) before it even started to take any action on that front. That's before getting to the part where the action that they did take was extremely chaotic and wasteful, at best.

Our clinic bought very few surgical masks and zero N95 masks. We had little need for them; the boxes we had before all this started were from an order we placed 9 months ago. Now, our suppliers have us on allocation which means we can only order, per month, as much as we ordered in our highest month in the previous 12 months -4 boxes. Luckily I’ve found other suppliers, but at a significant mark-up. Plus, we’ve gotten a lot of masks, face shields and gowns from the medical society, the ACO and other sources.
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Old 5th June 2020, 11:15 AM   #2749
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On Thursday, South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem announced that plans to maintain social distancing during President Donald Trump's planned visit to Mount Rushmore to celebrate the July 4 holiday had been scrapped.
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Old 5th June 2020, 11:42 AM   #2750
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
There are ways to deal with this. Healthcare workers can be protected from exposure, and they can stay isolated from their families. Of course the more patients there are the harder it gets, but it's still possible to avoid being infected. We have the technology, we have the resources, we have the knowledge. The only thing we don't have is the willpower.
Maybe you have the ability, financial resources and willpower to stay isolated from your family for months, but most healthcare workers probably don't. You sound very callous here, volunteering healthcare workers to be isolated from their families until ... we have a vaccine? 24 months or more? It's not like we have 3 times the healthcare workers we need and they can work in 30 day shifts or something.
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Old 5th June 2020, 11:45 AM   #2751
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
What's to discuss?
Sorry. I didn't mean here. It was a comment on the silence from the national leadership, i.e. Trump and gang.

Not that that's anything new. Actually solving problems, and actually communicating with people isn't his style, and he sets the tone for the whole team. It's all about image.

Still, what I would like to hear is a plan. i.e. We are aiming to produce this many tests, and this many masks, and when a case is identified test this many people among contacts and....etc. A good president would have that kind of plan, and he would communicate it.

Instead, we have Trump. Look how great we are doing!
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Old 5th June 2020, 11:46 AM   #2752
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
On Thursday, South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem announced that plans to maintain social distancing during President Donald Trump's planned visit to Mount Rushmore to celebrate the July 4 holiday had been scrapped.
People are seriously proposing to add his face to it.
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Old 5th June 2020, 11:46 AM   #2753
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
On Thursday, South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem announced that plans to maintain social distancing during President Donald Trump's planned visit to Mount Rushmore to celebrate the July 4 holiday had been scrapped.
Unfortunately I suspect the only victims here will be followers, and that Trump himself will somehow manage to stay apart from them, but one can hope.
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Old 5th June 2020, 11:49 AM   #2754
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Originally Posted by carlitos View Post
Maybe you have the ability, financial resources and willpower to stay isolated from your family for months, but most healthcare workers probably don't.
I think he said health care workers CAN be kept isolated. Grant them extra pay and/or free accomodation during the pandemic so that if they want to they can afford to be apart from their families without financial hardship. Set up testing/quarantine procedures so they can enter/leave the work force to give them a break.

It would cost money but it is doable.



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Old 5th June 2020, 02:57 PM   #2755
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
But it is possible to do a "good-enough" lockdown to essentially eliminate the virus. We know this is to true. It's been done in multiple countries. Not just New Zealand; admittedly being an island with a small initial outbreak and a largely sparse population helps. But also in other countries, including those with none of those benefits, such as South Korea and even China.

Apparently a well designed "lock down"policy with a consistent and convincing message and strong social pressure (or very strong government enforcement ) can drive R down enough that subsequent testing, contact tracing, and isolation works very well.
Driving R down isn't the same as making R zero. Containment is possible... but containment isn't eradication. New Zealand may be reporting no cases at the moment, and it might be possible for New Zealand to continue having no cases, provided they also don't allow travel into the country. But as soon as people start traveling, there's a risk of an outbreak.

South Korea still has new daily cases. They're low, and they're manageable, but it is not eradicated in South Korea.

As for China continuing to report zero cases... Well, this is supposed to be a skeptics website, so exercise that critical thinking.

It's entirely possible to contain the virus. It's much, much harder to do through lockdowns across the board. Much easier to do through testing, tracing, and isolation. But that's a cultural barrier in many parts of the world, as well as a technological one.

In any case, none of those result in the virus being eradicated.
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Old 5th June 2020, 03:24 PM   #2756
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Driving R down isn't the same as making R zero. Containment is possible... but containment isn't eradication. New Zealand may be reporting no cases at the moment, and it might be possible for New Zealand to continue having no cases, provided they also don't allow travel into the country. But as soon as people start traveling, there's a risk of an outbreak.

South Korea still has new daily cases. They're low, and they're manageable, but it is not eradicated in South Korea.

As for China continuing to report zero cases... Well, this is supposed to be a skeptics website, so exercise that critical thinking.

It's entirely possible to contain the virus. It's much, much harder to do through lockdowns across the board. Much easier to do through testing, tracing, and isolation. But that's a cultural barrier in many parts of the world, as well as a technological one.

In any case, none of those result in the virus being eradicated.
Well, New Zealand has eradicated it. Of course that doesn’t mean it might not be reintroduced. But I said essentially eradicated, which is certainly true of many additional countries.

Of course “lock downs” have to be followed up by testing, tracing, and selective isolation. That’s how one contains the virus until it can be eradicated.
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Old 5th June 2020, 03:46 PM   #2757
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Commander Inept calls out Maine governor for not opening up.

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Old 5th June 2020, 03:49 PM   #2758
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
Well, New Zealand has eradicated it. Of course that doesn’t mean it might not be reintroduced. But I said essentially eradicated, which is certainly true of many additional countries.

Of course “lock downs” have to be followed up by testing, tracing, and selective isolation. That’s how one contains the virus until it can be eradicated.
It certainly won't be contained, much less eradicated, by opening up willy-nilly based not on science, but on the gut-feelings of a very stupid man, and his very stupid supporters.

There are models on how to do this thing.
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Old 5th June 2020, 04:21 PM   #2759
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Driving R down isn't the same as making R zero. Containment is possible... but containment isn't eradication. New Zealand may be reporting no cases at the moment, and it might be possible for New Zealand to continue having no cases, provided they also don't allow travel into the country. But as soon as people start traveling, there's a risk of an outbreak.

South Korea still has new daily cases. They're low, and they're manageable, but it is not eradicated in South Korea.

As for China continuing to report zero cases... Well, this is supposed to be a skeptics website, so exercise that critical thinking.

It's entirely possible to contain the virus. It's much, much harder to do through lockdowns across the board. Much easier to do through testing, tracing, and isolation. But that's a cultural barrier in many parts of the world, as well as a technological one.

In any case, none of those result in the virus being eradicated.
What I wonder about is do we have the testing capacity, and whatever else is required, to do containment? Starting from where we are now, in the United States, what would it take to get to containment level.

I know that containment is not eradication. I just mean containment. I don't have an exact definition of containment, either, but I mean getting to the point where reasonable people think it's worth the risk to lead something like normal lives, because the number of cases has declined to a steady state, and low, level.

And if we just can't get there from here, then why not just open up the country right now and let everyone make their saving throws? Those of us who have a penalty on that saving throw could be in a lot of trouble, but I guess that's evolution in action.

And while I make light of it, I'm serious. If we can't do containment, then at some point every one of us will be exposed, and we will live or we will die, or possibly live with lingering effects like reduced lung capacity or the numerous other long term symptoms that have been reported. Do just enough lockdown/behavior modification to keep "the curve" sufficiently flat to not overwhelm the health system and beyond that, we all take our chances.

Don't get me wrong. That seems like a lousy option. It seems like containment ought to be possible, in which case our leaders ought to be saying, "This is what it takes to get from here to containment...." and then we do that. However, if that just can't be done, this lingering misery is worse. And if it can be done, then lock it down again and do it. Everyone except possibly the yahoos carrying AR 15s into the Michigan State Capital ought to be willing to bear the pain if they knew that it was a limited time affair.
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Old 5th June 2020, 04:46 PM   #2760
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I think he said health care workers CAN be kept isolated. Grant them extra pay and/or free accomodation during the pandemic so that if they want to they can afford to be apart from their families without financial hardship. Set up testing/quarantine procedures so they can enter/leave the work force to give them a break.

It would cost money but it is doable.



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We don’t have enough health care workers as it is. We can’t have them leaving the work force. So yeah, it’s doable, maybe in a couple of years. But not today. We just couldn’t spare them for 2 week quarantine periods as they change from isolation to family time and then back again. Wait till the hospitals start filling up this fall, it’s a non starter. We will have the military medical staff back on hospital ships and in convention centers.
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