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Old Yesterday, 09:34 AM   #681
ceptimus
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If you're going to sue someone or some organization, you need to state the grounds. What contract has been broken? Also you need to consider what court will hear and rule over the process.

If the UK wants to challenge the EU in court, the best method would be to leave with no deal, refuse to pay the EU any more money, and then wait for the EU to sue.
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Old Yesterday, 09:45 AM   #682
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You appear to think that what Trump said must have made some sort of sense, which assumes facts not in evidence.
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Old Yesterday, 10:07 AM   #683
The Don
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If you're going to sue someone or some organization, you need to state the grounds. What contract has been broken? Also you need to consider what court will hear and rule over the process.
Exactly, which is why I raise those questions upthread. The thing is that Donald Trump is so ignorant, he wouldn't realise that it made no sense for the UK to sue the EU.
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Old Yesterday, 10:08 AM   #684
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Looks like Theresa May's proposed deal is still falling apart:

Quote:
Downing Street now says it will accept the four amendments - one of which could stop the UK from collecting tariffs for the EU, part of Theresa May's Chequers plan, unless the rest of the EU reciprocates.

Another change could make the EU's "backstop" on customs impossible by ruling out a border in the Irish Sea.

The other two amendments would ensure the UK was out of the EU's VAT regime and require new legislation if the government wanted to form a customs union with the EU.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

Looks like a hard brexit all the way
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Old Yesterday, 12:28 PM   #685
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"Political journalist are trying to get their heads around the possibility of the government being defeated on amendments that it never wanted to accept in the first place."

I am, frankly, dizzy with the chaos, but I think these are the Rees-Moggian amendments that May accepted to avoid a calamitous vote tonight. Basically, she can't command a majority for any damn position whatsoever.

eta: "Struggling mightily to command a majority" would be more accurate.

We live in interesting times
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Old Yesterday, 04:03 PM   #686
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Got tables a motion to bring forward Summer Recess to this Thursday.
Country in crisis over Brexit and May is going to shut down Parliament for the summer.

Craven.
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Old Yesterday, 10:04 PM   #687
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
"Political journalist are trying to get their heads around the possibility of the government being defeated on amendments that it never wanted to accept in the first place."

I am, frankly, dizzy with the chaos, but I think these are the Rees-Moggian amendments that May accepted to avoid a calamitous vote tonight. Basically, she can't command a majority for any damn position whatsoever.

eta: "Struggling mightily to command a majority" would be more accurate.

We live in interesting times
This is exactly what I was talking about the other day that certain posters dismissed. The givernment has tied itself in knots and now seems to have passed amendments that render it impossible to agree any deal.

The Chequers deal created a lot of babble about soft brexit but it was nothing of the sort
it was a fudge worded to try to encompass two mutually exclusive positions in the hope thatneither would see the impossibility of what was being proposed and the EU coukd be blamed.

make no mistake the only plan May has now is to be able to pin the blame for no deal abd economic chaos on EU intransigence rather than her incompetence
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Old Today, 02:11 AM   #688
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The amendments don't make much difference because the plan would be unacceptable to the EU even without them.

Leavers continue to hope for a no deal Brexit. If it happens now it will be chaotic and painful in the short term because neither side has made serious preparations for it.

Remainers best hope is now a defeat of government leading to a General Election with Labour making a U-turn to stand on an 'exit Brexit' platform.

Even if there were enthusiasm for a second referendum, there isn't enough time before Brexit day (255 days) to organise one. A general election can happen sooner.

I expect remainers will now begin to lobby for some kind of emergency extension of the Brexit deadline so they have more time to engineer their reversal of the nation's choice.
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Old Today, 02:24 AM   #689
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Amazing that neither Cable nor Farron turned up for the vote.

Not sure what Cable's story is, but Farron was giving a lecture about the death of liberalism - aka he's still butthurt that he can't be a religious bigot and still lead the Lib Dems.

Its fairly extraordinary. The Lib Dems should just disband. How can they possibly hope to be taken seriously?
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Old Today, 02:28 AM   #690
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The amendments don't make much difference because the plan would be unacceptable to the EU even without them.
At this point I'd say having something actually decided on to put on the table is far better than the current situation of nobody seeming to have a clue about what's going on/

Quote:
Leavers continue to hope for a no deal Brexit. If it happens now it will be chaotic and painful in the short term because neither side has made serious preparations for it.
If that is indeed the case then they should be honest and just say that's what they want. They shouldn't be relying on "hope" to get the deal they want.

Quote:
Remainers best hope is now a defeat of government leading to a General Election with Labour making a U-turn to stand on an 'exit Brexit' platform.
That would require Corbyn to either change his view on Brexit or the party removing him.

Quote:
Even if there were enthusiasm for a second referendum, there isn't enough time before Brexit day (255 days) to organise one. A general election can happen sooner.
Why? Is there some rule that requires more than 255 days to have a referendum?

Quote:
I expect remainers will now begin to lobby for some kind of emergency extension of the Brexit deadline so they have more time to engineer their reversal of the nation's choice.
Honestly, they might end up getting that from the EU even if they didn't ask for it.
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Old Today, 02:57 AM   #691
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
Why? Is there some rule that requires more than 255 days to have a referendum?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44847404
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Old Today, 02:59 AM   #692
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The amendments don't make much difference
i disagree. A government willing to pass amendments to render its own plans illegal is quite something. Equally, changing the plan from 'unlikely to be acccepted' to 'impossible to be accepted' speaks volumes.
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Old Today, 03:14 AM   #693
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Meanwhile the EU have signed a new free trade agreement with Japan. No freedom of movement, no fishing rights, no common rule book, no supremacy of ECJ. Just trade.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44857317

Last edited by ceptimus; Today at 03:15 AM.
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Old Today, 03:19 AM   #694
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Meanwhile the EU have signed a new free trade agreement with Japan. No freedom of movement, no fishing rights, no common rule book, no supremacy of ECJ. Just trade.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44857317
After how many years negotiations?

Do you think Japan will give us the same deal?
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Old Today, 03:20 AM   #695
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Frankie Boyle

"If you're hard right, and what you actually hope Brexit will deliver is enough nationalistic division for you to build an authoritarian society, it's actually all going brilliantly"
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Old Today, 03:24 AM   #696
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
After how many years negotiations?

Do you think Japan will give us the same deal?
We are still in the EU at the moment, so we already have the deal.

Who knows what will happen regarding Brexit right now? I suppose it can't be decided whether Japan and the UK will agree the same or similar deal as the EU one until the final form of Brexit or non-Brexit is agreed and implemented.

Do you think the EU is prepared to offer the UK the same deal they have signed with Japan?

Last edited by ceptimus; Today at 03:28 AM.
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Old Today, 03:26 AM   #697
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Meanwhile the EU have signed a new free trade agreement with Japan. No freedom of movement, no fishing rights, no common rule book, no supremacy of ECJ. Just trade.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44857317
Are there hundreds of thousands of Japanese already living in the EU who are worried about their future?

How many EU citizens are living in Japan and not sure what will happen to them?

How many companies have locations and a workforce split between Japan and the EU which rely on easy movement of goods, services and personnel?

How many Japanese trawlers fish in EU waters?

Are Japan already committed to the ECJ?

Are Japan a part of the European Arrest Warrant?

Apart from that I can see how similar a Brexit deal would be.
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Old Today, 03:27 AM   #698
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Meanwhile the EU have signed a new free trade agreement with Japan. No freedom of movement, no fishing rights, no common rule book, no supremacy of ECJ. Just trade.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44857317
And what part of Japan is required to have open boarders with with the EU like Norther Ireland?

Hey Maybe Japan will take Norther Ireland off british hands, they are both island nations who drive on the wrong side of the road so that will make virtually no difference, and it will enable the GFA to live.
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Old Today, 03:53 AM   #699
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Do you think the EU is prepared to offer the UK the same deal they have signed with Japan?
I'm sure they would.
However, as we keep pointing out, such a deal (as with the Canada one) would result in our economy collapsing, as we make more money out of services than anything else.
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Old Today, 04:03 AM   #700
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
We are still in the EU at the moment, so we already have the deal.

Who knows what will happen regarding Brexit right now? I suppose it can't be decided whether Japan and the UK will agree the same or similar deal as the EU one until the final form of Brexit or non-Brexit is agreed and implemented.

Do you think the EU is prepared to offer the UK the same deal they have signed with Japan?
Do you think the Uk would take it? or would we prefer a deal with our special friends in the USA? I don;t see how a free trade deal with both can work while maintaining an open Irish border. It will offer a backdoor route to avoid the punitive EU/US tariffs.
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Old Today, 04:38 AM   #701
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
I'm sure they would.
However, as we keep pointing out, such a deal (as with the Canada one) would result in our economy collapsing, as we make more money out of services than anything else.
May's proposed plan (white paper) doesn't include services either.
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Old Today, 04:42 AM   #702
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Do you think the Uk would take it? or would we prefer a deal with our special friends in the USA? I don;t see how a free trade deal with both can work while maintaining an open Irish border. It will offer a backdoor route to avoid the punitive EU/US tariffs.
If tariffs are incompatible with an open border, and you wish to keep an open border, the solution is to scrap all tariffs. It seems vanishingly unlikely that the EU would be prepared to do that.

The term 'free trade' is a misnomer in any case while tariffs are present. A better term would be 'taxed trade'.
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Old Today, 04:55 AM   #703
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
May's proposed plan (white paper) doesn't include services either.
...as I've pointed out and criticised repeatedly

I think you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone posting on this board who thinks that Theresa May's white paper is anything other than a pathetic fudge - I'm happy to be proved wrong.

It may be marginally less worse than a no deal Brexit but then again it may be impossible whereas a no deal Brexit is a distinct possibility (and in my personal opinion a nailed-on favourite )
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Old Today, 05:26 AM   #704
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
Amazing that neither Cable nor Farron turned up for the vote.

Not sure what Cable's story is, but Farron was giving a lecture about the death of liberalism - aka he's still butthurt that he can't be a religious bigot and still lead the Lib Dems.

Its fairly extraordinary. The Lib Dems should just disband. How can they possibly hope to be taken seriously?
Not sure if this is likely, but Farron had gone from my memory until you mentioned his name - is he still leader and being a thorn in the Brexiteers side?
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Old Today, 05:50 AM   #705
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If tariffs are incompatible with an open border, and you wish to keep an open border, the solution is to scrap all tariffs. It seems vanishingly unlikely that the EU would be prepared to do that.
No, that is not the solution. Tariffs are the least reason why border infrastructure is required.
Besides, Ireland requires an "invisible" border, not merely an open one.
I don't see why the EU would not agree to an effectively zero-tariff arrangement.
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Old Today, 05:53 AM   #706
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If tariffs are incompatible with an open border, and you wish to keep an open border, the solution is to scrap all tariffs. It seems vanishingly unlikely that the EU would be prepared to do that.

The term 'free trade' is a misnomer in any case while tariffs are present. A better term would be 'taxed trade'.
The EU are happy to scrap tariffs. They are scrapping them with Japan. They have none with the UK. It is the UK that wants to break from the EU. That gives the default of tariffs.
The country pushing tariffs the hardest is the USA. While they insist on high tariffs on EU goods they would not accept the EU routing goods to America tariff free via the UK, which an open border facilitates.

That means there is a clear choice.

Free trade deal with the EU or the USA. Which do you choose?
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Old Today, 05:55 AM   #707
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Originally Posted by Greebo View Post
Not sure if this is likely, but Farron had gone from my memory until you mentioned his name - is he still leader and being a thorn in the Brexiteers side?
No, Faron stood down when he realised that being leader of the LibDems was incompatible with being a gay-hating Christian.
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Old Today, 06:06 AM   #708
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
No, Faron stood down when he realised that being leader of the LibDems was incompatible with being a gay-hating Christian.
Ah - OK.

Shows how effective I remember him being a leader then.

(My comment was also slightly tongue in cheek as there doesn't seem to be any real opposition to the Conservatives - outside their own ranks that is)
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Old Today, 06:14 AM   #709
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
The EU are happy to scrap tariffs. They are scrapping them with Japan. They have none with the UK. It is the UK that wants to break from the EU. That gives the default of tariffs.
The country pushing tariffs the hardest is the USA. While they insist on high tariffs on EU goods they would not accept the EU routing goods to America tariff free via the UK, which an open border facilitates.

That means there is a clear choice.

Free trade deal with the EU or the USA. Which do you choose?
Actually its possible to have an FTA with both - Korea do for example. Of course the devil is in the detail and an FTA only provides a very limited subset of the benefits that being in the EU provides.
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Old Today, 06:30 AM   #710
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Actually its possible to have an FTA with both - Korea do for example. Of course the devil is in the detail and an FTA only provides a very limited subset of the benefits that being in the EU provides.
But despite free trade agreement the countries are not connected and they have hard borders. Goods are tracked as they enter and exit Korea so it is easier to know their origin.
We are talking about a system where there will be no checking of goods between the EU and the UK (through Ireland). It will be far easier to pretend they are UK origin goods without the pesky import documentation from Italy.
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Old Today, 06:59 AM   #711
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
Amazing that neither Cable nor Farron turned up for the vote.

Not sure what Cable's story is, but Farron was giving a lecture about the death of liberalism - aka he's still butthurt that he can't be a religious bigot and still lead the Lib Dems.

Its fairly extraordinary. The Lib Dems should just disband. How can they possibly hope to be taken seriously?
Apparently Labour had indicated that they would abstain from the vote, and by the time it became apparent that not only would they vote against it, they would also be joined by Tory rebels including a minister, it was too late to recall them.

Incidently, both of them are voting with Labour and some Tory rebels on an amendment to force the UK into a customs union, unless an agreement on frictionless trade has been reached by January 21, 2019. Should be an interesting one to follow.

Last edited by KDLarsen; Today at 07:00 AM.
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Old Today, 07:02 AM   #712
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
May's proposed plan (white paper) doesn't include services either.
Which is one amongst plenty of reasons it is a load of old tosh.
And that was before Mogg's Amendments.
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Old Today, 08:37 AM   #713
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
But despite free trade agreement the countries are not connected and they have hard borders. Goods are tracked as they enter and exit Korea so it is easier to know their origin.
We are talking about a system where there will be no checking of goods between the EU and the UK (through Ireland). It will be far easier to pretend they are UK origin goods without the pesky import documentation from Italy.
but thats beyond an FTA and therefore more than ceptimus was asking for.

ACtually an FTA sometime around 2027 would look like the best we can hope for now. Sadly.
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Old Today, 08:56 AM   #714
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I have to admit, I chuckled at this exchange
Quote:
In the Commons Labour’s Toby Perkins raises a point of order and asks if the speaker knows anything about the whereabouts of Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, who Perkins says was tweeting about being the only person fighting Brexit this morning but was not in the Commons to vote last night. The Lib Dem Tom Brake responds by making another point of order, asking if the speaker knows of the whereabouts of Jeremy Corbyn, who Brake says has been absent for two years in the fight against Brexit.
From the Guardian's Politics Live commentary
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Old Today, 09:17 AM   #715
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
We are still in the EU at the moment, so we already have the deal.
for a few months more. After that you are on your own.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Who knows what will happen regarding Brexit right now?
Everyone except the UK.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I suppose it can't be decided whether Japan and the UK will agree the same or similar deal as the EU one until the final form of Brexit or non-Brexit is agreed and implemented.
Oh that's just great, isn't it. You can't get a deal until you leave but somehow you are certain that it will be the best deal. Sure it will take ten years to thrash out and sure the EU already has one that you are walking away from, but isn't it worth it to keep out those darkies? That's worth it, right? You can live with the "slants" right?

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Do you think the EU is prepared to offer the UK the same deal they have signed with Japan?
No. In the EU the UK ranks lower than Turkey, an applicant member. The UK is a former member. A supplicant, in effect.
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Old Today, 11:09 AM   #716
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The customs amendment failed by 6 votes, 301 to 307. According to a reporter from The Sun, a few Labour brexiteers were vital to ensure it failed. Almost universal agreement amongst political reporters that Tory whips had threathened with a vote of no confidence, had the amendment passed, so if the bit about labour MP's is true, some pointed questions regarding propping up a shaky Tory government could be asked of them...
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Old Today, 02:58 PM   #717
Captain_Swoop
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
It will be far easier to pretend they are UK origin goods without the pesky import documentation from Italy.

What do you mean? We have always been famous for our Parma Ham, Vintage Barolo and Ducati motorbikes.
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Old Today, 03:14 PM   #718
P.J. Denyer
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Still, look on the bright side. Our politicians may be morons guided by naked self interest or fanatical adherence to dogma in the face of evidence, expert advice or common sense, but at least our leaders haven't publicly announced their Putin Puppethood.

It's not much, but it's something.
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