The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Just found this short video, where someone animated the map of Russian-occupied territory since the war began.
One minute in, he show the Russian gains in the last 60 days - and the Russian losses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfK2o0AbV8Y&t=60s

yt;dw: Russia didn't gain a whole lot, but lost even less.
Hence, it's been mostly a stalemate the last 60 days, with Russia doing better in terms of advancing.

Oh, and Russia has kept a whole lot more that they conquered during the first phase, which, some here seem to believe, Russia "lost". It's a special kind of doublespeak if you consider losing ground "winning" and gaining ground "losing" in a war.

You can lose ground while gaining advantage.
You can take ground that costs you heavy in men and material.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Oystein

As Drewbot said: This resemble WW1 western front more than WW2 eastern front: All of the fighting then was inside Belgium and France, though not very far from invading Germany, and it dragged on for more than 4 years, until France was spent, but Germany was even more spent. That was a bad war for both.

It is nothing like the WW1 'Western Front'

[sackett]

Listen up, troops. Too much strategyizing. What's to be done to improve the tactical situation? The Russians are shooting down too many drones. Aren't there ways to configure small drones for anti-radar attack? No chaff drones? No swarm drones?

Not that anybody should be blabbing about it, but what's the satellite intelligence picture? Long range tac missiles need pictures, now and not next Wednesday.

Goddammit, let's share what we know, not what we think will make our johnson bars look longer.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Keeping your fingers crossed, eh?
There is little evidence that sanctions ever stopped anyone from conducting or even winning wars,

Destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure does nothing to help win the war either. But that seemed to matter to you.

And sanctions will matter to Russia, quite a lot. They can weather them in the near term, but long term sanctions can and likely will cripple both Russia’s economy and their military. And sanctions HAVE done that before.

Quote:

and what China does or doesn't do you cannot know.

I don’t think you comprehend the situation. China is not ABLE to provide Russia with significant economic aid. They have looming economic catastrophes of their own. They have no margin to come to Russia’s rescue.

Quote:

the the war is not going anywhere right now - a stalemate (even if some other poster denies this).

A stalemate favors Ukraine. Time is on their side.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

Destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure does nothing to help win the war either. But that seemed to matter to you.

If one of your core objectives is to derail the Ukraine economy and prevent it becoming a western facing market economy, then I'd argue that it does.

The Russian approach seems to be that if it cannot have a compliant puppet on its western border, it'll have a smoking ruin instead.

[Lord Emsworth]

Originally Posted by tyr_13

I know it's not the most important issue, but did anyone else see the video of the Russian air defense missile in Luhansk target it's own launcher, turning right around and hitting where it was just launched from?

That's kind of a massive failure of a kind that shouldn't really be possible.

There are several different vids of this. In one of these it does appear like the missile impacts where it was launched from, but in the others it becomes clear that the impact is some distance away.

Might have hit a mil target nontheless, but who knows?

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by crescent

Multiple reports now from Ukr government sources that Ukr forces have been ordered to withdraw from Severodonestk.

HIMARS is now in use by Ukraine, supporting fighting in the Kherson area.

To both of those... I think I'll say "Finally. Good." With that said, I think I saw a claim that Severodonetsk is about 90% destroyed. That's a lot of rather indiscriminate artillery fire, there, and a lot of cleanup to do. Either way, Lysychansk should be immensely more defensible, given the terrain (and not being on the wrong side of that river!), as well as in a much better position to help hold off the attackers from Popasna if needed, so I suppose that we're likely to see how that battle plays out soon. It would be no surprise if Ukraine retreated from Lysychansk sooner, though, to prevent encirclement. Ukraine seems likely to have achieved its main strategic goals when it comes to its defense of Severodonetsk, either way.

On the south of the eastern edge, though, something interesting happened. Ukraine apparently suddenly took back 5 settlements down there - Zolota Nyva, Prechystivka, Novomaiors’ke, Shevchenko, and Yehorivka. Retaking the ground is good and all, but I'm uncertain if there's a larger strategic aim and/or if it's an opportunistic assault on an area that Russia's left largely undefended as it stripped away its forces to assault Severodonetsk. May much more be liberated in the coming days, though.

There's also supposedly movement on the Kherson front, but little official information about it for the moment besides claims of advancing.

[a_unique_person]

Quote:

Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...nce-of-forces/

The sheer number of artillery shells they are firing is not sustainable.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...nce-of-forces/

The sheer number of artillery shells they are firing is not sustainable.

Paywalled.

[eerok]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Paywalled.

Here's a different source:

Quote:

Russian forces conducted an abnormally large series of missile strikes against Ukrainian rear areas on June 25.[7] The Ukrainian Airforce Command reported that Russian forces fired over 50 ground-, air-, and sea-based missiles at Ukraine and targeted areas in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Khmelmytskyi, Chernihiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[8] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that six Russian Tu-22M3 bombers departed from the Shaykova airbase in Belarus and launched 12 Kh-22 cruise missiles at land targets in Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts, which is the first such launch from Belarus.[9] The Ukrainian Airforce Command noted that Russian forces used sea-based Kalibr missiles against targets in western Ukraine, X-22 and ground-based Iskander and Tochka-U missiles against targets in northern Ukraine, and ONYX missiles and Bastion complexes against targets in southern Ukraine.[10] Ukrainian air defense reportedly shot down many of the missiles, which were likely intended to target critical support infrastructure in areas of Ukraine where there is no direct combat.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-june-25

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...nce-of-forces/

The sheer number of artillery shells they are firing is not sustainable.

Quote:

According to chatter on Russian Telegram channels and Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, the Russian military is under pressure to bring all of Luhansk under Russian control by Sunday, perhaps explaining the heightened momentum of the past week.



But the “creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long, said the senior Western official.

Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said.

Officials refuse to offer a time frame, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, citing intelligence assessments, indicated this week that Russia would be able to continue to fight on only for the “next few months.” After that, “Russia could come to a point when there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” he told the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.

From the article. "Experts" are claiming this but it has to be unsustainable. I don't think they will make it by Sunday.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by Oystein

Originally Posted by Klimax

It will be better for you to just admit you did NOT click a single link I provided. And do not try to claim you did, because it will be just blatant lie.

You did not answer my question.

What question? There was only stupid irrelevant statement.
If you wanted Russian propaganda, just ask CE. They'll be more than happy to provide such links.

Quote:

Of course I clicked not a single link. Posting a lenthy link list is something I have seen 9/11 Truthers do over and over again - and none of them impressed me, ever. Should I be impressed by a lengthy list of links to social media presences? Honestly? Do you think I should be THAT gullible?

Of course you know as well as I do that I could, if I wanted to, compile a link list ten times as long as yours, where every Twitter account tells a story diametrically opposed to yours. Would I expect you to be impressed? Hell no!

Oh look. Logical fallacy. Poisoning of the well. And idoitc at that. Hlaf of them are recognized by mainstream media as good sources. I even commented on what is provided by each link, but that would require you to read, THINK and chalneg your own thinking.

BTW: I was challenged to provide my sources, I did so.

If you want to remain absolutely ignorant and 100% wrong, just say so.

There's not much to answer in your second reply. Just with Kharkov/TheDon you nicely contradict yourself. Rest is based on your ignorance.
Evidence:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klimax

Again, free hint: Ammo warehouses, Snake Island, Kherson, Kharkov, Izium.

Russia is hitting UA ammo warehouses? Yes, yes they are. Check.
Who controls Snake island? Oh - Russia. Check.
Kherson. Who controls Kherson? Please do tell! Check.
Izium?? LOL WHat's the latest again on Izium? Please check your own 19 links! Check and Mate.

None of what you wrote is true. You are not even wrong. Russians are not hitn warehouses (they love to claim that but evidence is missing),Ukrainians are. See Krasnyi Luch for example out of many. Snake Island got bombarded again. That control is tenuous after sinking one of supplying ships. Meaning it is within range of land-based antiship missiles. UA is getting pretty close to Kherson from west. Forrest west of Izium is full of Ukrainian units and Izium is getting bombarded damn often (NASA FIRMS shows it too even when no claim has been made). Like: https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/stat...96059672363008

You see why I say you are ignorant? You got one completely wrong, one is barely true and rest is dismissed by personal lack of knowledge.

[Klimax]

BTW: The Don and Oystein are no Igor "Strelkov" Girkin when it comes to Doommongering... He at least knows what is going on, is mostly correct and often entertaining to read even if he is bloody Russian Ultranationalist...

[a_unique_person]

Fog of war and all that. Time will tell.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Klimax

None of what you wrote is true. You are not even wrong. Russians are not hitn warehouses (they love to claim that but evidence is missing),Ukrainians are. See Krasnyi Luch for example out of many. Snake Island got bombarded again. That control is tenuous after sinking one of supplying ships. Meaning it is within range of land-based antiship missiles. UA is getting pretty close to Kherson from west. Forrest west of Izium is full of Ukrainian units and Izium is getting bombarded damn often (NASA FIRMS shows it too even when no claim has been made). Like: https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/stat...96059672363008

I get that you're really invested in the idea that Ukraine will eventually turn the tide of the war and start to drive the Russian army out of the South and the East of the country - I really want that to - but to deny simple facts doesn't help matters.

• The Russians are bombarding Ukrainian ammunition warehouses. They also indiscriminately shelling all buildings within artillery range and conducting terror attacks across Ukraine with longer range ordnance
• Yes, Ukraine is repeatedly attacking Snake Island in an attempt to disable the air defences that the Russians have installed there but at the current time the Russians still hold Snake Island and there's no indications that's going to change any time soon.
• Yes, Ukraine have had success in the Kherson theatre but they're still 20+km from the city and the Russians have prepared defensive positions. The Russians still control Kherson and there's no indication that's going to change any time soon
• The Russians still hold Izyum and there's no indication that's going to change any time soon

Meanwhile the Russian army has taken Severodonetsk and is relentlessly grinding northwards towards Lysychansk. As noted in the ISW daily summary published yesterday:

Quote:

• Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have taken full control of Severodonetsk and are fighting within Lysychansk.
• Russian forces made measured gains to the north and southeast of Bakhmut.

Of course that's only part of the picture, elsewhere they are failing to advance - but aren't being beaten back either

Quote:

• Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to advance southeast of Izyum toward Slovyansk.
• Russian forces continued positional battles north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces attempted to strengthen their defensive lines and recapture lost positions on the Southern Axis.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-june-25

As is pointed out upthread, experts are saying that their use of artillery and missiles is unsustainable, but they've been saying that for weeks and so far they haven't shown any signs of diminishing their bombardment. Western armies would consider that the costs in terms of men and materiel were far too high for the relatively modest gains in ground but that doesn't appear to be a consideration for the Russians - they simply do not care how many soldiers die because they have plenty and they don't give a single solitary **** about any of them.

Bearing in mind the apparent depth of the Russian reserves, human and equipment, it doesn't seem viable to simply wait until the Russians punch themselves out because it isn't going to happen any time soon. IMO the West needs to change strategy to enable Ukraine to defend itself more effectively.

Meanwhile, support may be wavering

Quote:

The Russian war against Ukraine will inevitably dominate the summit of G7 nations in Bavaria.

And the leaders of the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Japan face a difficult challenge.

They are aiming to put on a show of unity and resolve over the war. In recent months, the Western alliance has shown signs of strain and fatigue.

Some voices - particularly in France, Germany and Italy - have asked if it might not be better for the war to end, even if it came at the cost of Ukraine having to cede territory.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61940007

IMO France, Germany and Italy can go **** themselves and should have to cede a similar amount of territory. It beggars belief that they don't realise that any settlement will simply mean that Russia will come back for more sooner or later.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by The Don

As is pointed out upthread, experts are saying that their use of artillery and missiles is unsustainable, but they've been saying that for weeks and so far they haven't shown any signs of diminishing their bombardment.

To poke at this yet again, "unsustainable" =/= "will run out in a couple days." The lowest estimate that I've seen on the running out front is a couple months away, assuming very high usage remains stable, which is an unlikely proposition. Given Russia's ability to surpass the negative assessments and probable desire to reserve at least some of its stockpile, it could well be notably less, but I wouldn't count on it.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by The Don

Originally Posted by Klimax

None of what you wrote is true. You are not even wrong. Russians are not hitn warehouses (they love to claim that but evidence is missing),Ukrainians are. See Krasnyi Luch for example out of many. Snake Island got bombarded again. That control is tenuous after sinking one of supplying ships. Meaning it is within range of land-based antiship missiles. UA is getting pretty close to Kherson from west. Forrest west of Izium is full of Ukrainian units and Izium is getting bombarded damn often (NASA FIRMS shows it too even when no claim has been made). Like: https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/stat...96059672363008

I get that you're really invested in the idea that Ukraine will eventually turn the tide of the war and start to drive the Russian army out of the South and the East of the country - I really want that to - but to deny simple facts doesn't help matters.

• The Russians are bombarding Ukrainian ammunition warehouses. They also indiscriminately shelling all buildings within artillery range and conducting terror attacks across Ukraine with longer range ordnance
• Yes, Ukraine is repeatedly attacking Snake Island in an attempt to disable the air defences that the Russians have installed there but at the current time the Russians still hold Snake Island and there's no indications that's going to change any time soon.
• Yes, Ukraine have had success in the Kherson theatre but they're still 20+km from the city and the Russians have prepared defensive positions. The Russians still control Kherson and there's no indication that's going to change any time soon
• The Russians still hold Izyum and there's no indication that's going to change any time soon

Let's see:
1) Where the hell is evidence? So far none! Hint: You can't hide such explosions and associated secondary exp.
2) Can Russian soldiers survive without food and other supplies? Answer will tell you everything. you need to know.
3) "Soon". Also even shorter range artillery can now fire at targets in Kherson.
4) West of Izium is large forest. Now full of Ukrainian units. And targets in Izium are getting destroyed. (Be it supplies or command - https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/stat...96059672363008)

Quote:

Meanwhile the Russian army has taken Severodonetsk and is relentlessly grinding northwards towards Lysychansk. As noted in the ISW daily summary published yesterday:

Quote:

• Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have taken full control of Severodonetsk and are fighting within Lysychansk.
• Russian forces made measured gains to the north and southeast of Bakhmut.

They were ordered to withdraw.
And trying to reach Lysychansk from SD is not exactly easy. Something about river bank on L side being higher than SD side... and L is full of arty.

Also "measured".

Quote:

Of course that's only part of the picture, elsewhere they are failing to advance - but aren't being beaten back either

Quote:

• Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to advance southeast of Izyum toward Slovyansk.
• Russian forces continued positional battles north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces attempted to strengthen their defensive lines and recapture lost positions on the Southern Axis.

1)Izium front is not going to last for long.
2)Their pretty contained and not going anywhere near Kharkov again.
3)And failing.

Quote:

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-june-25

As is pointed out upthread, experts are saying that their use of artillery and missiles is unsustainable, but they've been saying that for weeks and so far they haven't shown any signs of diminishing their bombardment. Western armies would consider that the costs in terms of men and materiel were far too high for the relatively modest gains in ground but that doesn't appear to be a consideration for the Russians - they simply do not care how many soldiers die because they have plenty and they don't give a single solitary **** about any of them.

HIMARS will take care of that. Along side of preexisting weapons. Like Tochka-U...

Quote:

Bearing in mind the apparent depth of the Russian reserves, human and equipment, it doesn't seem viable to simply wait until the Russians punch themselves out because it isn't going to happen any time soon. IMO the West needs to change strategy to enable Ukraine to defend itself more effectively.

Human resources? Not without mobilization. Equipment? They are already digging T-62 and other outdated crap. (Or rather what they can get even running)

Quote:

Meanwhile, support may be wavering

Quote:

The Russian war against Ukraine will inevitably dominate the summit of G7 nations in Bavaria.

And the leaders of the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Japan face a difficult challenge.

They are aiming to put on a show of unity and resolve over the war. In recent months, the Western alliance has shown signs of strain and fatigue.

Some voices - particularly in France, Germany and Italy - have asked if it might not be better for the war to end, even if it came at the cost of Ukraine having to cede territory.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61940007

IMO France, Germany and Italy can go **** themselves and should have to cede a similar amount of territory. It beggars belief that they don't realise that any settlement will simply mean that Russia will come back for more sooner or later.

Just voices.