Merged: Bitcoin - Part 3

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by blutoski

This one, I'm not sure sure I agree with. My heirs have instructions for accessing the BTC wallet the same as they do for my conventional accounts.

Well of course many people take steps so their BTC can be passed .. but many don't. If you have money in bank, and you die without last will, the lawyers will find the money (and debts), and they will be passed. With BTC, not so much.

[blutoski]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Well of course many people take steps so their BTC can be passed .. but many don't. If you have money in bank, and you die without last will, the lawyers will find the money (and debts), and they will be passed. With BTC, not so much.

Yes, that's why I only half agreed that it was a problem.

Lawyers won't find your Swiss bank account if you don't leave the account information lying around, either, for example, but the point is that it's a manageable concern either way.

[xjx388]

What “yields” do precious metals...uh...yield?

As always, the value of any particular thing is exactly what someone is willing to pay. And that’s based on whatever they think that thing will provide, whether that’s appreciation, dividends, happiness, etc. That is true no matter what asset or good we are talking about.

BTC has utility, however limited it may be. It’s market price has had some wild swings which attracts investors. Silver and Gold are extremely similar in my opinion.

[Chanakya]

Originally Posted by xjx388

What “yields” do precious metals...uh...yield?

As always, the value of any particular thing is exactly what someone is willing to pay. And that’s based on whatever they think that thing will provide, whether that’s appreciation, dividends, happiness, etc. That is true no matter what asset or good we are talking about.

Agreed. Value lies in the eyes of the beholder. As apparently worthless an activity as one or more people jumping up and down at the same place can have value if others are willing to pay for it. See that sweet old man in the UK. For that matter, see any and every spectator sport.

And conversely, not even the most apparently worthwhile of things, like for instance saving entire species from going extinct, has value -- in the amoral, strictly utilitarian, laissez faire investment-world sense of the term -- if no one that is able to is willing to pay for it.

Quote:

BTC has utility

Evidently, since it commands a market price. Whether its value comports with the values of society in general (and if it doesn't, then whether that is enough reason to make an exception to a general hands-off policy as far as that value -- after all, we do make other such exceptions) is the question. And that question has no 'right' answer; the answer will be what we collectively decide it will be.

Personally I wouldn't touch the thing with a ten-foot pole, personally I wouldn't invest even a hundred dollars of my own money in it; but nor would I lift a finger to keep others from making a killing on it, or getting taken to the cleaners over it as the case may be. But that's just me.

Quote:

, however limited it may be. It’s market price has had some wild swings which attracts investors. Silver and Gold are extremely similar in my opinion.

Not really, in mine. That old man in the UK was doing it for a Cause, capital C. But what would you think of people paying a random man to keep running round and round in his back porch, the money going towards nothing bigger than feeding him and financing his life? The difference between that and mainstream spectator sports is the difference between CC and gold, IMV. A question of how mainstream they are, how broad their user base.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by lomiller

The actual "well worn pattern" in this thread is people pointing to real problems with bitcoin, along with real supporting facts to which psionl0 responds with hand waving dishonesty and innuendo.

You are the dishonest one here. You are copy/pasting text posted during the last bubble and pretending that they are original contributions by you.

This crap was thoroughly rebutted then (and is being proven false today) but instead of dealing with those arguments you make sure that you don't refer to a single word of those rebuttals so that you can claim that they are "hand waving dishonesty and innuendo" instead.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by lomiller

Further to: it's also important to remember that bitcoin speculators, on average, make absolutely nothing. There is no mechanism for them to make money that doesn't come out of some other speculators pocket.

BTC interest account. Next.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by blutoski

Well, it's definitely not anything I've ever said, so I am concerned you're arguing against an imaginary me.

What I'm saying - for the record - is that it's something with little or no intrinsic value, so its pricing is proportional to popularity rather than yields, and therefore at the mercy of a secondary market, and unpredictable. It could go down to zero. Or not. And in the meantime will fluctuate unpredictably. Its value cannot be analyzed because it does not reflect significant external utility.

There is money to be made in arbitrage and speculation (which is where my analogy to black eleven comes in), there's no doubt about that, but nothing special about it vs, say, beanie babies.

At the moment, if I was to guess on the current blip, it's because there's only so much surplus asset money to go around, and the market is looking dodgy, real estate is iffy with people moving to the suburbs or maybe not, so BTC is a reasonable Plan C for those who share the mindset that it's not beanie babies.

I wasn't responding to you directly but you are claiming that bitcoin is just a zero sum game of purely random chance. This is a claim that is often made during a major bitcoin price bubble.

The price history shows that this claim is false. The price never drops to zero and never stays "low" for the foreseeable future. Instead, the market cap keeps on increasing (price spikes not withstanding) over the longer term. That can only mean that more money is being spent on bitcoin - either by existing speculators or by new speculators. Evidently it will take some very significant event for this state of affairs to change. Why this simple observation must never be mentioned is beyond me.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by xjx388

What “yields” do precious metals...uh...yield?

a) there is actual consumption of precious metals. People use them to make things other people want.
b)over the long term precious metals track with inflation, they don't increase in value.

Originally Posted by xjx388

It’s market price has had some wild swings which attracts investors.

real investors are wary of wild swings. Like I said above, stocks in bankrupt companies continue to trade and have just the type of wild swings you are talking about. This doesn't make them good investments.

Originally Posted by xjx388

Silver and Gold are extremely similar in my opinion.

Can you walk into a jewelry store and buy a chain made of solid bitcoin?

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

BTC interest account. Next.

Nope. Next.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by lomiller

a) there is actual consumption of precious metals. People use them to make things other people want.
b)over the long term precious metals track with inflation, they don't increase in value.

real investors are wary of wild swings. Like I said above, stocks in bankrupt companies continue to trade and have just the type of wild swings you are talking about. This doesn't make them good investments.



Can you walk into a jewelry store and buy a chain made of solid bitcoin?

Which post did you copy this special pleading from?

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by psionl0

Which post did you copy this special pleading from?

You shouldn't try to use phrases you don't understand.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by lomiller

You shouldn't try to use phrases you don't understand.

I understand the phrases but you don't.

You don't even appear to realize how dumb it makes you look when you try to claim that bitcoin has no use whatsoever other than to take up space on your computer.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by lomiller

Nope. Next.

Evidently our realities and investment strategies differ. What would you recommend as a good investment?

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

Evidently our realities and investment strategies differ. What would you recommend as a good investment?

The best investment for most people is a low MER fund indexed to the stock market. Historically that would be something indexed to the broader US market, but who knows if that will hold true going forward. Professional stock pickers can beat these indexes slightly but typically not by enough to justify the additional MER they charge.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by lomiller

The best investment for most people is a low MER fund indexed to the stock market. Historically that would be something indexed to the broader US market, but who knows if that will hold true going forward. Professional stock pickers can beat these indexes slightly but typically not by enough to justify the additional MER they charge.

Thanks. I may look into a MER fund a little closer. BTC just crossed into $40,299 a few minutes ago and I liquidated 50%. I may come to regret it later but $40k was my magic number.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by psionl0

If you can afford to gamble then "buy and hold" is a reasonable consideration. Also, buy and sell at 2 or 3 times your purchase price has a reasonable chance of succeeding.

First hurdle: check. Conservative speculators (including those who bought 3 years ago) may sell here.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

New magic number is $80K

[blutoski]

Originally Posted by psionl0

I wasn't responding to you directly but you are claiming that bitcoin is just a zero sum game of purely random chance. This is a claim that is often made during a major bitcoin price bubble.

Possibly. For the record, I make that claim at all times, whether the price is rising or falling.

Originally Posted by psionl0

The price history shows that this claim is false. The price never drops to zero and never stays "low" for the foreseeable future. Instead, the market cap keeps on increasing (price spikes not withstanding) over the longer term. That can only mean that more money is being spent on bitcoin - either by existing speculators or by new speculators. Evidently it will take some very significant event for this state of affairs to change. Why this simple observation must never be mentioned is beyond me.

This confuses me because I think that paragraph precisely describes a zero sum situation, contrary to your previous paragraph.

[blutoski]

Originally Posted by lomiller

The best investment for most people is a low MER fund indexed to the stock market. Historically that would be something indexed to the broader US market, but who knows if that will hold true going forward. Professional stock pickers can beat these indexes slightly but typically not by enough to justify the additional MER they charge.

Worth mentioning that stock pickers on average *don't* beat these indexes, and the few that do, it's easily explained by random chance.

This is where the analogy to, say, dowsing, comes in. There's a few who walk away with impressive records, but upon closer examination they're either exaggerated or suddenly stop, because they're just random chance.

Warren Buffet's 'bet' that managed funds would not perform vs the S&P500 index was exactly what skeptics do with the Million Dollar Challenge. And again, as a skeptic, I was fascinated with the boilerplate post hoc rationalizations for failure that were offered as a substitute instead of just admitting that the stock market is unpredictable and charging money for stock picking is somewhere between self delusion and fraud.

Skepticism made me a better investor.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by blutoski

This confuses me because I think that paragraph precisely describes a zero sum situation, contrary to your previous paragraph.

"Zero sum" implies that the losers balance out the winners and no net gains can be made.

If you simply meant that for every buyer there is a seller then the entire commodities market* would be a zero sum game which would make the term "zero sum" meaningless.

* Stocks might offer a dividend which is based on the company's productive capability and not necessarily its share price.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

New magic number is $80K

For me the next hurdle would be $60K but chickens and all that.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by psionl0

For me the next hurdle would be $60K but chickens and all that.

You don't take any profits on the way up?

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by blutoski

Worth mentioning that stock pickers on average *don't* beat these indexes, and the few that do, it's easily explained by random chance.

This is where the analogy to, say, dowsing, comes in. There's a few who walk away with impressive records, but upon closer examination they're either exaggerated or suddenly stop, because they're just random chance.

Warren Buffet's 'bet' that managed funds would not perform vs the S&P500 index was exactly what skeptics do with the Million Dollar Challenge. And again, as a skeptic, I was fascinated with the boilerplate post hoc rationalizations for failure that were offered as a substitute instead of just admitting that the stock market is unpredictable and charging money for stock picking is somewhere between self delusion and fraud.

Skepticism made me a better investor.

I checked into it and it seems to be not something I would be interested in. I don't think handing money over to someone else and paying them a portion of my money to pick stocks is a sound investment strategy. In fact it seems to me you'd end up paying the other guy money whether he makes you anything or not. That's a bit foolish IMO.

I also checked with an uncle who told me he lost 60% of his life savings in 2008 due to being invested in a MER during the 2008 crash. So, again, not for me. When asked he said "If someone is urging you to invest in a managed fund now, run away, don't walk."

I guess I'll rebuy my 50% BTC if or when the price drops near the previous highs of the bull run 3 years ago and continue as I have. After all, I've been in early retirement for a few years now. If the managed fund guys were any good, they've have made enough money to retire too.

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

You don't take any profits on the way up?

Not if you are greedy.

Bitcoin has entered into a major price bubble. It is not unreasonable to speculate that the peak price could end up at many times its December 2017 value (this has happened with every other major bubble). So a basic strategy of set selling price, wait for bitcoin to reach that price then profit is not unreasonable (provided that you can afford to lose your initial investment).

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

I checked into it and it seems to be not something I would be interested in. I don't think handing money over to someone else and paying them a portion of my money to pick stocks is a sound investment strategy. In fact it seems to me you'd end up paying the other guy money whether he makes you anything or not. That's a bit foolish IMO.

An index fund doesn't "pick" shares. It buys them in the same proportion that the shares contribute to the S&P 500 index. They charge a small fee for this service (which comes out of the dividends you would otherwise receive).

You could create your own S&P 500 index based portfolio but you would be paying 500 lots of brokerage fees to do so.

The stock market isn't necessarily a more secure investment than bitcoin (there is always a once or twice in a life time risk of a major crash) but generally the peaks and troughs are a lot less severe.

[xjx388]

Originally Posted by lomiller

a) there is actual consumption of precious metals. People use them to make things other people want.
b)over the long term precious metals track with inflation, they don't increase in value.

real investors are wary of wild swings. Like I said above, stocks in bankrupt companies continue to trade and have just the type of wild swings you are talking about. This doesn't make them good investments.



Can you walk into a jewelry store and buy a chain made of solid bitcoin?

There’s no difference in utility between a fake gold ring and a gold ring, so the value of gold has little to do with its utility. The reason gold has value is the same reason Bitcoin has value: people think it does.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by psionl0

If you simply meant that for every buyer there is a seller then the entire commodities market* would be a zero sum game which would make the term "zero sum" meaningless.

False. In the commodity market there are consumers who come out ahead because they buy the commodity at a price that is attractive for them to use it, and producers who come out ahead because they sell the commodity at a price that is attractive for them to produce it. When producers sell to consumers, even if it's through and intermediary, BOTH come out ahead. This is how trade works, why it happens and is NOT zero sum.

Conversely there is no meaningful analogy for consumption of bitcoin. Speculators selling to other speculators IS zero sum. When there are producers also selling to speculators but no consumers it's actually negative sum for the speculators. On average they will lose money.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by lomiller

False. In the commodity market there are consumers who come out ahead because they buy the commodity at a price that is attractive for them to use it, and producers who come out ahead because they sell the commodity at a price that is attractive for them to produce it. When producers sell to consumers, even if it's through and intermediary, BOTH come out ahead. This is how trade works, why it happens and is NOT zero sum.

Conversely there is no meaningful analogy for consumption of bitcoin. Speculators selling to other speculators IS zero sum. When there are producers also selling to speculators but no consumers it's actually negative sum for the speculators. On average they will lose money.

Ehm. Do you know where little bitcoins come from ?

[psionl0]

Originally Posted by lomiller

False. In the commodity market there are consumers who come out ahead because they buy the commodity at a price that is attractive for them to use it, and producers who come out ahead because they sell the commodity at a price that is attractive for them to produce it. When producers sell to consumers, even if it's through and intermediary, BOTH come out ahead. This is how trade works, why it happens and is NOT zero sum.

Conversely there is no meaningful analogy for consumption of bitcoin. Speculators selling to other speculators IS zero sum. When there are producers also selling to speculators but no consumers it's actually negative sum for the speculators. On average they will lose money.

Where do you get this silly notion that commodities are "consumed"? In bullion form they are often not even moved (at least for the big buyers and sellers). The ownership merely changes hands.

Of course, if you looked at the answers to the post that you copy/pasted you would already know this.

[blutoski]

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

I checked into it and it seems to be not something I would be interested in. I don't think handing money over to someone else and paying them a portion of my money to pick stocks is a sound investment strategy.

It isn't. Which was Buffet's point. Just get index funds or etfs. Nobody's picking stocks, not even me.

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

In fact it seems to me you'd end up paying the other guy money whether he makes you anything or not. That's a bit foolish IMO.

Right, which is why my post was recommending against it, and I cited Buffet's successful bet that it would be a bad investment.

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

I also checked with an uncle who told me he lost 60% of his life savings in 2008 due to being invested in a MER

An MER is a fee, not an investment vehicle. I don't think you understand any of this.

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

... during the 2008 crash. So, again, not for me. When asked he said "If someone is urging you to invest in a managed fund now, run away, don't walk."

Yep. Thus my (and Buffet's) recommendation to use an index fund instead of a managed fund.

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

I guess I'll rebuy my 50% BTC if or when the price drops near the previous highs of the bull run 3 years ago and continue as I have. After all, I've been in early retirement for a few years now. If the managed fund guys were any good, they've have made enough money to retire too.

So, like, later this afternoon, I guess.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by blutoski

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

during the 2008 crash. So, again, not for me. When asked he said "If someone is urging you to invest in a managed fund now, run away, don't walk."

Yep. Thus my (and Buffet's) recommendation to use an index fund instead of a managed fund.

Worth noting, however, that just about anything was a fantastic investment in late 2008. While an index fund would still have been marginally better, the advise to "run away, don't walk" was terrible. Other then a handful of stocks everything was cheep so both managed and index funds would have both made a killing.

(Rather then putting my available cash into my existing index funds I took a bit of a gamble on Canadian bank stocks once it was reported they had little or no exposure to sub-prime in the US. I reasoned that the whole sector would get pummelled and the banks with no exposure would get hit just as hard. I put $12K into BMO, the book value on that is about $60K now. (growth is a little slow but I don't want the tax hit for selling) it's also paid me more than $20K in dividends, which reinvested are now worth over $40K)

Maybe I was smart, because it worked out the way I hoped, but It could also just be luck. It really is easy to make money getting in near the bottom of a crash.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by lomiller

Worth noting, however, that just about anything was a fantastic investment in late 2008. While an index fund would still have been marginally better, the advise to "run away, don't walk" was terrible. Other then a handful of stocks everything was cheep so both managed and index funds would have both made a killing.

(Rather then putting my available cash into my existing index funds I took a bit of a gamble on Canadian bank stocks once it was reported they had little or no exposure to sub-prime in the US. I reasoned that the whole sector would get pummelled and the banks with no exposure would get hit just as hard. I put $12K into BMO, the book value on that is about $60K now. (growth is a little slow but I don't want the tax hit for selling) it's also paid me more than $20K in dividends, which reinvested are now worth over $40K)

Maybe I was smart, because it worked out the way I hoped, but It could also just be luck. It really is easy to make money getting in near the bottom of a crash.

When you buy into the stock market during an all time high, it seems you could be setting yourself up for disappointment. Certain things that the US Government does or does not do can be seen by investors as positive or negative influences on the market. With these factors in mind I'll stick with BTC, day trading ALT coins, cash and silver.

The time it takes for the investment to mature and begin payouts is also a factor I consider. It looks like you've done well with that $12K, depending on how long you've had it invested to get to those numbers for returns. $12K spent on BTC in March of 2020 could have returned over $120K in Jan 2021.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by blutoski

Snipped


An MER is a fee, not an investment vehicle. I don't think you understand any of this.



So, like, later this afternoon, I guess.

I understand enough to know if I put in $100K in the morning I probably won't cash out $130K that night. whoops I meant $144K. Second whoops, $181K from $100K this morning. I think you might get it now.



Let us pray....

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

When you buy into the stock market during an all time high, it seems you could be setting yourself up for disappointment. Certain things that the US Government does or does not do can be seen by investors as positive or negative influences on the market. With these factors in mind I'll stick with BTC, day trading ALT coins, cash and silver.

The time it takes for the investment to mature and begin payouts is also a factor I consider. It looks like you've done well with that $12K, depending on how long you've had it invested to get to those numbers for returns. $12K spent on BTC in March of 2020 could have returned over $120K in Jan 2021.

Apples to oranges. All I had to do was identify a stock that was being priced incorrectly, whereas going back in time to buy bitcoin at it's bottom is an impossibility. Trying to predict a top and bottom in a random walk is a fools errand and not something that it likely to make you money in the long term.

[blutoski]

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

I understand enough to know if I put in $100K in the morning I probably won't cash out $130K that night. whoops I meant $144K. Second whoops, $181K from $100K this morning. I think you might get it now.

So, it's volatile, like gambling, and you can win if you have a time machine to go back to a few hours/days earlier. Got it.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by lomiller

Apples to oranges. All I had to do was identify a stock that was being priced incorrectly, whereas going back in time to buy bitcoin at it's bottom is an impossibility. Trying to predict a top and bottom in a random walk is a fools errand and not something that it likely to make you money in the long term.

Nobody can accurately predict the top or the bottom. But, everyone can study the trading chart, buy when it is low and sell at a higher price than you purchased. It's not rocket science although a calculator is nice. Or there are those that skip trading and go for a long term hold.

And it doesn't take long term to make enough to retire on. After you cash out you can always go back to CD's, stocks or other investments if BTC doesn't suit you.

Originally Posted by blutoski

So, it's volatile, like gambling, and you can win if you have a time machine to go back to a few hours/days earlier. Got it.

Yep a time machine would be better but it's not required.

[lomiller]

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY

Nobody can accurately predict the top or the bottom. But, everyone can study the trading chart, buy when it is low and sell at a higher price than you purchased. It's not rocket science although a calculator is nice. Or there are those that skip trading and go for a long term hold.

"low" or "high" don't work that way in a random walk. No matter what the price is today the chances of next weeks price being higher or lower is entirely random and has no connection with what's happened in the past.

Technical trading at least has the hope (or fiction) that what they see in the charts is a reflection of fundamental knowledge posses by at least some buyer\sellers. Bitcoin price is entirely subject to the sentiment of speculators so such knowledge can't exist in the first place.

The alternative where bitcoin prices are not a random walk is even worse for would be investors. If the prices are not a random walk, they are probabaly the subject of market manipulation. When the people manipulating the price cash out their winnings it's the would be investors trying to "get in on the action" that will be left holding the bag.

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Originally Posted by lomiller

"low" or "high" don't work that way in a random walk. No matter what the price is today the chances of next weeks price being higher or lower is entirely random and has no connection with what's happened in the past.

Technical trading at least has the hope (or fiction) that what they see in the charts is a reflection of fundamental knowledge posses by at least some buyer\sellers. Bitcoin price is entirely subject to the sentiment of speculators so such knowledge can't exist in the first place.

The alternative where bitcoin prices are not a random walk is even worse for would be investors. If the prices are not a random walk, they are probabaly the subject of market manipulation. When the people manipulating the price cash out their winnings it's the would be investors trying to "get in on the action" that will be left holding the bag.

By all means feel free to remain skeptical about BTC. It's certainly not everyone's choice to own it. Obviously it's not for you.

[Samson]

It seems likely the coin will return to 20k before making new highs (if ever).
The move from the top to 30,200 looks to be a powerful first wave.

Clearly a falsifiable prediction. Anyone else is welcome to make a prediction of course.

[Dr.Sid]

Well I'm betting my money on the idea it's over for now. No ATH in months and drop to at least 20k, yeah.
But generally my bets on BTC are pretty bad.

[zooterkin]

Oops. https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...itcoin-account

Quote:

Now each bitcoin is worth $34,000, and the contents of his wallet are valued at $240m. But Thomas has forgotten the password that will unlock his fortune.

German-born Thomas has already entered the wrong password eight times, and if he guesses wrong two more times his hard drive, which contains his private keys to the bitcoin, will be encrypted – and he’ll never see the money.